politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling background to the PM’s big BREXIT speech
Comments
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Maybe you will review after she has met the 'Donald' and been on the front cover of American VoguePlatoSaid said:
I'm not that convinced - she's still got unattractive baggage in other areas. I'm now neutral - rather than a trifle hostileBig_G_NorthWales said:
Going to rejoin PlatoPlatoSaid said:
I'm really rather impressed after that.Big_G_NorthWales said:Wow - she just fired a sidewinder into Junckers and others wish to harm us
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It looks like May's Deal or No Deal. I don't think No Deal means " Sod it, we'll stay as we are".williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
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LOL that is our attempt at pretending to be one of the big boys, unfortunately the short trousers give us away. WTF is global about Trident given we need to beg the US if we ever want to use it.Pulpstar said:
Isn't that the purpose of err Trident ?Dromedary said:
● "Global Britain".
Imagine if a politician in Italy talked about a Global Italy. They'd be a laughing-stock.0 -
If Parliament votes down the deal, then May will call an election. So we should prepare, at least in theory, for an election in Spring 2019, rather than 2020. Although personally I think there will be some drift over the strict two year A50 timescale.CarlottaVance said:
Er....no.williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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I noted a couple of references to how British intelligence had helped save many lives from terrorist plots across Europe.....something I'm sure National governments will be acutely aware of, if not the Commission....Casino_Royale said:The UK is the second biggest contributor to the EU budget (as is) and has somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of its economy, over a quarter of its military capability, is the de facto centre of its financial services and London is its creative capital.
Yes, the UK is outnumbered, but it's not true to say that it walking away from the table wouldn't be a huge deal for the EU.
During the Brussels manhunt the Belgian Police complained they were getting more from Scotland Yard than from their own Security Service....0 -
I guess the other 27 didnt value our participation enoughrottenborough said:
Heavy praise of the single market. Which raises the question how does it help it for one of its biggest members to leave?William_H said:Interesting mix of grovelling, bullshit and arrogance.
Basically a full hard brexit, but with the undertone that she knows its stupid and is hoping the EU will bail us out0 -
The UK has had a very interventionist agricultural policy since before the 2nd world war (it was one of the many little diversions I took when swotting over EUref). I'd imagine that there will be a switch in emphasis to landscape preservation and stewardship over pure food production. Then there can be a chlorine-bleached chicken in every pot.Mortimer said:
There was a reflection back on the fact that Govt has said it would support farmers post exit, IIRC.rottenborough said:Did I miss it, or was there no mention of CAP?
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Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.0 -
Surely only if Artcle 50 is revocable. If it's not (court case in Dublin I think?), and most seem to think it isn't, it's "deal or no deal", not "deal or stay put".williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
Anyway why on earth would the EU want us back? They're off and talking about common defence and doubtless over the next two years more such things will be put on the table for ever closer union (corporate tax? banking union? etc etc), they will hardly want the Brits back to sit in the corner moaning and dragging our feet again. Surely the only way back would be full Monty Euro/Schengen/and whatever else they've cooked up since June 23rd? That's not going to be voted on as "option 3" in Parliament is it?0 -
I still wouldn't take every single thing said as gospel....remember we are entering a period of negotiation, and nobody* starts off declaring where they really happy to end up.
* well other than Dave.0 -
If May fails to get a deal, or her deal makes Dave's look like the Peace of Westphalia, then she's out on her ear. She wouldn't survive that.TwistedFireStopper said:
It looks like May's Deal or No Deal. I don't think No Deal means " Sod it, we'll stay as we are".williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
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Is Ireland allowed under EU law to have a common travel area with a non-member state that is outside the single market?
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I though the issue of whether Article 50 can be revoked hadn't yet been clarified?CarlottaVance said:
Er....no.williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....0 -
I read the other day that she is first PM in a long time without a specific speech writing person.John_M said:
Sounds like Nick Timothy has been on point.frpenkridge said:TM has got a good speech writer.
Partly as she doesn't plan to give many speeches!0 -
You really are impossible if you think we should be contrite with the EUwilliamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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Very true. There will be horse trading for sure. But at least she's stated off not just bending over as Dave did before he even started. The "we'll walk away" option is there pour encourager les autres.FrancisUrquhart said:I still wouldn't take every single thing said as gospel....remember we are entering a period of negotiation, and nobody* starts off where they really want to end up.
* well other than Dave.0 -
ROFLTheScreamingEagles said:
Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.David_Evershed said:
Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.TheScreamingEagles said:
BuggerScott_P said:@jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go
I was right you were wrong.
I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
it's a total shithole to work in
seriously
I cant say I envy you, if our southern colleagues think the occassional RMT action is deplorable, wait until they meet the CGT - real bastards0 -
What part of UK'S INDEPENDENT deterrent don't you understand?malcolmg said:
LOL that is our attempt at pretending to be one of the big boys, unfortunately the short trousers give us away. WTF is global about Trident given we need to beg the US if we ever want to use it.Pulpstar said:
Isn't that the purpose of err Trident ?Dromedary said:
● "Global Britain".
Imagine if a politician in Italy talked about a Global Italy. They'd be a laughing-stock.0 -
We are where we are - I don't like it, but there you go; I am used to losing :-)
Let's just hope that May can deliver on what she has set out. It will be sub-optimal in my view - seems silly to make it more expensive and time consuming to do business in your biggest export market - but with goodwill on all sides a deal can be done. The most important thing now is to get on with it.0 -
If the EU is fantastic at one thing, it is finding a fudge when really required. I doubt of all the complexities that will be the stumbling block.Dromedary said:Is Ireland allowed under EU law to have a common travel area with a non-member state that is outside the single market?
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The question of whether it can be revoked unilaterally hasn't been resolved, but by consent it definitely can.FeersumEnjineeya said:
I though the issue of whether Article 50 can be revoked hadn't yet been clarified?CarlottaVance said:
Er....no.williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....0 -
OMG Tim Farron is an irrelevance isn't he0
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We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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Telegraph
Theresa May's Brexit speech in full https://t.co/CkmWvVMjtH0 -
@GuardianHeather: Downing Street sources confirm May's speech constitutes the "plan" promised to MPs - there will be no white paper.0
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@DanHodges One other narrative May's killing off. The idea she's out off her depth. This is a heavyweight speech from a serious politician.0
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Worst of all, it is full of French people.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLTheScreamingEagles said:
Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.David_Evershed said:
Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.TheScreamingEagles said:
BuggerScott_P said:@jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go
I was right you were wrong.
I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
it's a total shithole to work in
seriously
I cant say I envy you, if our southern colleagues think the occassional RMT action is deplorable, wait until they meet the CGT - real bastards0 -
I think she should meet with trump first, gives her some negotiating ammunition.rottenborough said:Why do we need to wait to March now? Supreme Court announce result next week and then straight to Parliament to trigger A50.
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If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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Sounds yummyJohn_M said:
The UK has had a very interventionist agricultural policy since before the 2nd world war (it was one of the many little diversions I took when swotting over EUref). I'd imagine that there will be a switch in emphasis to landscape preservation and stewardship over pure food production. Then there can be a chlorine-bleached chicken in every pot.Mortimer said:
There was a reflection back on the fact that Govt has said it would support farmers post exit, IIRC.rottenborough said:Did I miss it, or was there no mention of CAP?
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Can they do half-customs checks on lorries?FrancisUrquhart said:
If the EU is fantastic at one thing, it is finding a fudge when really required. I doubt of all the complexities that will be the stumbling block.Dromedary said:Is Ireland allowed under EU law to have a common travel area with a non-member state that is outside the single market?
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Politics Home
The 12 Objectives:
1. As much certainty as possible
2. Control over laws
3. The Union
4. Common Travel Area
5. Control over immigration
6. Right to remain for UK nationals living abroad and EU nationals living in the UK.
7. Protecting workers’ rights
8. A trade deal with the EU
9. Trade deals with other countries
10. Continuing to lead on science and innovation
11. Continued cooperation on crime, terrorism and security
12. A phased implementation process0 -
I think this is a mistake after Trump's comments about Germany. If we are seen as too close to Trump, the imperative not to give an inch will be even stronger.nunu said:
I think she should meet with trump first, gives her some negotiating ammunition.rottenborough said:Why do we need to wait to March now? Supreme Court announce result next week and then straight to Parliament to trigger A50.
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We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.0 -
What are the other options? Dublin? Frankfurt?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.David_Evershed said:
Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.TheScreamingEagles said:
BuggerScott_P said:@jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go
I was right you were wrong.
I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
I think you should certainly make the case for factfinding in La Reunion - which is part of the EU and the Eurozone I believe.0 -
Good reception for TM on Sky from voters in a pub in Basingstoke - both leavers and remainers positive and one female remain voter said she had been inspired by the speech0
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That's probably true we do spy on all the of them.CarlottaVance said:I noted a couple of references to how British intelligence had helped save many lives from terrorist plots across Europe.....something I'm sure National governments will be acutely aware of, if not the Commission....
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Probably not at present.Dromedary said:Is Ireland allowed under EU law to have a common travel area with a non-member state that is outside the single market?
However, you'd hope that given both the Irish and the British want to do a nice friendly deal between them on something affecting a land border on an island out on the far Atlantic fringes of Europe with a country which occupies another island off the Continent Brussels might just see sense in bending for once. It's not like such a fudge is in the middle of the Rhine next to Strasbourg.0 -
It's not gonna happen. For good or ill, or maybe just much of the same, we're exiting the EU. I can't see any politician crawling on their hands and knees to beg to be allowed the status quo-except PM Tim Farron...williamglenn said:
If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.0 -
It was rather nice.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good reception for TM on Sky from voters in a pub in Basingstoke - both leavers and remainers positive and one female remain voter said she had been inspired by the speech
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French people are lovely. It's the fucking Parisi-oh. Never mind TSE, think of the money.TheScreamingEagles said:
Worst of all, it is full of French people.Alanbrooke said:
ROFLTheScreamingEagles said:
Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.David_Evershed said:
Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.TheScreamingEagles said:
BuggerScott_P said:@jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go
I was right you were wrong.
I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
it's a total shithole to work in
seriously
I cant say I envy you, if our southern colleagues think the occassional RMT action is deplorable, wait until they meet the CGT - real bastards0 -
Surely depends on whether A50 is revocable?CarlottaVance said:
Er....no.williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.0 -
So it is the cake and eat it policy. But what type of cake? A global cake like a Black Forrest Gateaux ?0
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The Lib Dems are usually right in the end. Remember Iraq.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not gonna happen. For good or ill, or maybe just much of the same, we're exiting the EU. I can't see any politician crawling on their hands and knees to beg to be allowed the status quo-except PM Tim Farron...williamglenn said:
If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?FeersumEnjineeya said:
We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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That dig at Merkel:
Fairness demands that we deal with another issue as soon as possible too. We want to guarantee the rights of EU citizens who are already living in Britain, and the rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can.
I have told other EU leaders that we could give people the certainty they want straight away, and reach such a deal now.
Many of them favour such an agreement - one or two others do not - but I want everyone to know that it remains an important priority for Britain – and for many other member states – to resolve this challenge as soon as possible. Because it is the right and fair thing to do.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter0 -
Big test for UKIP this week. Dinnington ward, Rotherham Council. May 2016 3 seats, Labour 1st , UKIP second only 58 votes behind, Labour third. Good Conservative Independant and Conservative vote as well. This time there is a Liberal Democrat as well who might take some Labour and Independant votes. On paper it looks like an open goal for UKIP but they are not as popular now as last May. Be interesting.
Two weeks later the Brinsworth ward in Rotherham also votes, that looks reasonable ground for the Lib Dems who got 14/15% last time. Will they echo their Sunderland and Sheffield by election performances of recent times.0 -
And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.tpfkar said:The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.
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Dublin and Frankfurt are too small.rkrkrk said:
What are the other options? Dublin? Frankfurt?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.David_Evershed said:
Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.TheScreamingEagles said:
BuggerScott_P said:@jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go
I was right you were wrong.
I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
I think you should certainly make the case for factfinding in La Reunion - which is part of the EU and the Eurozone I believe.
The most elegant solution would be for Scotland to secede/remain in the EU, so we'd set up there.
Madrid or Barcelona are still possibilities.0 -
Honest Q Mr SO, does it ever make you question whether you're wrong/out of step and should change your mind?SouthamObserver said:We are where we are - I don't like it, but there you go; I am used to losing :-)
Let's just hope that May can deliver on what she has set out. It will be sub-optimal in my view - seems silly to make it more expensive and time consuming to do business in your biggest export market - but with goodwill on all sides a deal can be done. The most important thing now is to get on with it.
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Is this an opinion or a desire? Why exactly do you want it to fail so much?williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
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Been out.
Summary pls. Keep it pithy and to the point.
Thanks0 -
Trying to occupy the moral high-ground while her former department sends out letters to EU citizens telling them they have to leave the country is naked hypocrisy.CarlottaVance said:That dig at Merkel:
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Stuck at work so haven't seen the speech.
Is there a list of what buzzword phrases are paying out?0 -
Or May calls a GE, is returned to office with a bigger majority and a new manifesto pledge to pass it, and it sails through.williamglenn said:
And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.tpfkar said:The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.
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williamglenn said:
If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
I have no desire to be Juncker's footstool. I'd rather fucking starve.
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https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/821336404257017856
'don't take the Nigel Farage Little England option'0 -
This is not Iraq.FeersumEnjineeya said:
The Lib Dems are usually right in the end. Remember Iraq.TwistedFireStopper said:
It's not gonna happen. For good or ill, or maybe just much of the same, we're exiting the EU. I can't see any politician crawling on their hands and knees to beg to be allowed the status quo-except PM Tim Farron...williamglenn said:
If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
The Lib Dems were wrong on the euro.0 -
FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'
My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.0 -
May nailed it. Lots of optimism and a little steel. Briefly showed big stick, then put it away again.TOPPING said:Been out.
Summary pls. Keep it pithy and to the point.
Thanks0 -
Not yet, but soon. Galloping inflation and rising unemployment, I would imagine, as companies seek to relocate back into the single market. Rapid deterioration of services as the supply of foreign labour dries up as a consequence of falling sterling and unwelcoming reception.TwistedFireStopper said:
Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?FeersumEnjineeya said:
We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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A 6%-smaller-than-otherwise-economy-by-2030 abyss, that's what!TwistedFireStopper said:
Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?FeersumEnjineeya said:
We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
I know who will win out.0 -
The one we've been staring into for the last 6 months......TwistedFireStopper said:
Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?FeersumEnjineeya said:
We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
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If the deal is credible it will pass with no problem. This is in the scenario where negotiations fail, not only with the EU but with the rest of the world.Casino_Royale said:
Or May calls a GE, is returned to office with a bigger majority and a new manifesto pledge to pass it, and it sails through.williamglenn said:
And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.tpfkar said:The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.
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It's perfect clear it's the EU that's stopping us saying to EU citizens here "no probs you can stay and keep all your rights". It will happen of course eventually, because it is the right thing morally. They are victims of the EU's daft "no prenegotiation stance".williamglenn said:
Trying to occupy the moral high-ground while her former department sends out letters to EU citizens telling them they have to leave the country is naked hypocrisy.CarlottaVance said:That dig at Merkel:
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Gordon Brown parroted BNP lines, Theresa May parrots the lines of Nigel Farage.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/821336404257017856
'don't take the Nigel Farage Little England option'
Not sure which is worse0 -
More likely that an election gets rid of the recalcitrant Parliamentarians, their replacements agreeing the deal in short order.williamglenn said:
And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.tpfkar said:The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.
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Yes, we must remember most people aren't saddos who obsessively follow politics as we do. So this speech - as a national news event - will reassure many.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good reception for TM on Sky from voters in a pub in Basingstoke - both leavers and remainers positive and one female remain voter said she had been inspired by the speech
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You won't be deciding though. Parliament will.welshowl said:williamglenn said:
If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
I have no desire to be Juncker's footstool. I'd rather fucking starve.0 -
If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.Casino_Royale said:
EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
I know who will win out.0 -
Drunk out of their skulls by midday most likely, if I know Basingstoke.Big_G_NorthWales said:Good reception for TM on Sky from voters in a pub in Basingstoke - both leavers and remainers positive and one female remain voter said she had been inspired by the speech
0 -
This is Hard Brexit after taking a dozen viagra.TOPPING said:Been out.
Summary pls. Keep it pithy and to the point.
Thanks0 -
It is clearly a desire by William whose loathing for this country and fanatical blind support for the EU are constantly apparentShropshireLadd said:
Is this an opinion or a desire? Why exactly do you want it to fail so much?williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.0 -
Old cove in charge of NPD in previous job named projects after Overlord beaches....until someone rumbled him.....TheScreamingEagles said:FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'
My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.0 -
Don't like that verbless 'Real Progress' at the end. Creepily Trumpian.TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown parroted BNP lines, Theresa May parrots the lines of Nigel Farage.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/821336404257017856
'don't take the Nigel Farage Little England option'
Not sure which is worse0 -
Pound up three cents on the dollar since this morning, one and a half against the Euro.0
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Fair point. Hopefully we won't need to go to the upholsterers!FeersumEnjineeya said:
You won't be deciding though. Parliament will.welshowl said:williamglenn said:
If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
I have no desire to be Juncker's footstool. I'd rather fucking starve.0 -
I'd have gone for "Oh Fk no"TheScreamingEagles said:FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'
My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.0 -
How would that work? For May to have lost the first vote (or a vote of confidence) means lots of Conservative MPs will have voted against her. Presumably in the resulting general election, these same MPs will have told their local papers they were opting out of paragraph 23 of the manifesto on Brexit, and will vote the same way in the new parliament.Casino_Royale said:
Or May calls a GE, is returned to office with a bigger majority and a new manifesto pledge to pass it, and it sails through.williamglenn said:
And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.tpfkar said:The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.
Either way, it is a complete mess.0 -
Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.williamglenn said:
If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.Casino_Royale said:
EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
I know who will win out.
We've said: ok.0 -
"If"williamglenn said:
If the will of the country changed to remain rather than face a car crash, the EU would be happy for us to stay. It's the integrity of the treaties that they need to protect.Carolus_Rex said:
How would voting down the deal give us a route out of Brexit?williamglenn said:
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.CarlottaVance said:@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
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Complicated business. Complicated business.Stark_Dawning said:
Don't like that verbless 'Real Progress' at the end. Creepily Trumpian.TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon Brown parroted BNP lines, Theresa May parrots the lines of Nigel Farage.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/821336404257017856
'don't take the Nigel Farage Little England option'
Not sure which is worse0 -
So, to go all Kremlinology on this, it looks like Hammond lost in Cabinet on single market.0
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Which part of our access to the single market are we offering to give up? So far we're just asked for extra goodies in the form of the ability to opt out of the common external tariff.Casino_Royale said:
Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.williamglenn said:
If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.Casino_Royale said:
EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
I know who will win out.
We've said: ok.0 -
You managed to resist Operation Overlord?TheScreamingEagles said:FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'
My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.0 -
Can anyone imagine Corbyn or Leadsom having given that speech0
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John_M said:
A 6%-smaller-than-otherwise-economy-by-2030 abyss, that's what!TwistedFireStopper said:
Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?FeersumEnjineeya said:
We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.welshowl said:
We are not going to be contrite enough.williamglenn said:
Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.CarlottaVance said:Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
Probably better to use the confidence interval figures and the fact that the deal may be closer to WTO terms, - so a -4.6% to -9.5% poorer economy by 2030 with the gap getting larger every year.0 -
Luckily, restricted access includes a lot of wiggle room.Casino_Royale said:
Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.williamglenn said:
If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.Casino_Royale said:
EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.williamglenn said:
The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
I know who will win out.
We've said: ok.0 -
For all the formal acknowledgement (whether with teeth clenched or while singing the Ode to Joy) that Britain is in Europe, there has always been this attitude in Britain that the EU and indeed Europe are foreign entities.Casino_Royale said:
The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.rkrkrk said:
I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.Casino_Royale said:Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.
I expected nothing less.
Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.
On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
In France there are politicians such as Emmanuel Macron who is calling for a revision to EU policy on immigration rather than wrapping himself in the tricolour. In Germany quite a few people say things like "How can we compete with China and the US if we're not united?" Britain never reached that stage. Elite arrogance didn't allow it. The EU "we" never came into existence here. If someone in Britain used the word "we" in that way, they'd be looked at as if they were a nutcase.
EU27 does not have the required level of unity to make an example of Britain. What unity it does have is decreasing. In March when Wilders wins a plurality in the Dutch election, everyone will be talking about the Netherlands. And then there's France. Dutch events will affect the atmosphere there. For that matter, Trump could appear by video link at Le Pen's conference in Germany on Saturday. Not a certainty, but it could happen. Nexit and Frexit and goodness knows where else-exit will be the notions of the season. Trump will probably help with that in his inauguration speech.
Both Britain and EU27 seem to be up you-know-where without a paddle.
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Heh.CarlottaVance said:
Old cove in charge of NPD in previous job named projects after Overlord beaches....until someone rumbled him.....TheScreamingEagles said:FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'
My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.
When I was working on a major UK retailer's plan to build/open one of Europe's largest depots, I named it Project FMS.
A few months later I met the board and they asked what FMS stood for, I sheepishly and sotto voce said 'Fucking Massive Shed'0 -
Sandpit said:
Pound up three cents on the dollar since this morning, one and a half against the Euro.
Just removing uncertainty helps.
0
