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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling background to the PM’s big BREXIT speech

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684

    tpfkar said:

    The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.

    And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.
    Or May calls a GE, is returned to office with a bigger majority and a new manifesto pledge to pass it, and it sails through.
    If the deal is credible it will pass with no problem. This is in the scenario where negotiations fail, not only with the EU but with the rest of the world.
    The UK is still a major economy. I don't expect us to get everything we want: negotiations will be tough, with countries playing hardball, but I don't see other (smaller) economies around the world getting royally rogered every time they do a trade deal. Nor do I see the UK as juicy prey - a fresh carcass, cleaved from the herd - ready for ferocious stripping by the vultures that circle about us in the outside world.
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    So TSE thinks this is a super hard Brexit but forex traders seem to think softer than they were expecting.

    Glad that's that cleared up.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447

    Can anyone imagine Corbyn or Leadsom having given that speech

    :smiley: LOL. QTWTAIN
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    Is this an opinion or a desire? Why exactly do you want it to fail so much?
    It is clearly a desire by William whose loathing for this country and fanatical blind support for the EU are constantly apparent
    That's a tad unfair. Wanting a fully federal USE is hardly beyond the political pale, and doesn't imply a lack of patriotism.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,442
    Thanks all.

    So sounds like some leadership, then?

    OK where she's leading us to will remain a topic of debate (oh yes) but am I right in saying it was a step up from her normal dour, say nothingness?
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,017

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.

    I know who will win out.
    If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.
    Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.

    We've said: ok.
    Why would the Germans want to risk us slapping import duties on German cars? Tariff-free trade seems best for all concerned.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,729
    tpfkar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Been out.

    Summary pls. Keep it pithy and to the point.

    Thanks

    Farage loved it. Farron didn't.
    What has been the reaction of industry bosses?
    Will any switch funding from Tories to LibDems?
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    Sandpit said:

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    You managed to resist Operation Overlord?
    Yeah and Projects Waterloo and Mers-el-Kébir
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447
    tpfkar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Been out.

    Summary pls. Keep it pithy and to the point.

    Thanks

    Farage loved it. Farron didn't.
    ...and Corbyn didn't understand it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953

    Good reception for TM on Sky from voters in a pub in Basingstoke - both leavers and remainers positive and one female remain voter said she had been inspired by the speech

    Drunk out of their skulls by midday most likely, if I know Basingstoke.
    They're in a quiet little country pub, rather than that massive JDW in the shopping centre!
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    JonathanD said:

    John_M said:

    welshowl said:

    Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....

    Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.
    We are not going to be contrite enough.
    We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.
    Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?
    A 6%-smaller-than-otherwise-economy-by-2030 abyss, that's what!

    Probably better to use the confidence interval figures and the fact that the deal may be closer to WTO terms, - so a -4.6% to -9.5% poorer economy by 2030 with the gap getting larger every year.
    That would have meant unacceptable wear and tear on my hyphen key.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.

    I know who will win out.
    If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.
    Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.

    We've said: ok.
    Luckily, restricted access includes a lot of wiggle room.
    Indeed. They just need to be able to argue it's crapper than being in the EU.

    And it will be fairly straightforward to do that, in one sense, because the UK has already had a currency shrinkage, will no longer play any part in setting its rules, but be tangentially influenced by that, and will probably still have to pay a big-ish subscription fee.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Sindy ref 3 now stone dead.

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447

    Sandpit said:

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    You managed to resist Operation Overlord?
    Yeah and Projects Waterloo and Mers-el-Kébir
    Dien Bien Phu
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Can anyone imagine Corbyn or Leadsom having given that speech


    Corbyn could have given that speech. Of course half way through he would have switched to talking about adopting Antarctic Penguins.

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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    BBC vox pops from Birmingham, almost next to useless - E. Europeans working in a coffee shop, hardly cutting edge work. Perhaps they are hard working students taking engineering degrees.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,447

    Can anyone imagine Corbyn or Leadsom having given that speech


    Corbyn could have given that speech. Of course half way through he would have switched to talking about adopting Antarctic Penguins.

    an improvement on owls though?
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    Can anyone imagine Corbyn or Leadsom having given that speech


    Corbyn could have given that speech. Of course half way through he would have switched to talking about adopting Antarctic Penguins.

    More likely the maximum wage Ozil should get paid at part of his new contract...
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    John_M said:

    JonathanD said:

    John_M said:

    welshowl said:

    Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....

    Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.
    We are not going to be contrite enough.
    We may be after 2 years of staring into the abyss.
    Genuinely, what abyss are we staring into?
    A 6%-smaller-than-otherwise-economy-by-2030 abyss, that's what!

    Probably better to use the confidence interval figures and the fact that the deal may be closer to WTO terms, - so a -4.6% to -9.5% poorer economy by 2030 with the gap getting larger every year.
    That would have meant unacceptable wear and tear on my hyphen key.
    True and with the increase in import prices best not to risk that :-)
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.

    I know who will win out.
    If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.
    Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.

    We've said: ok.
    That did sound a bit like a massive bluff calling......oh, and we won't be paying either - whodyathink's gonna have to pick up that bill....?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,684
    Dromedary said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I .
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    For all the formal acknowledgement (whether with teeth clenched or while singing the Ode to Joy) that Britain is in Europe, there has always been this attitude in Britain that the EU and indeed Europe are foreign entities.

    In France there are politicians such as Emmanuel Macron who is calling for a revision to EU policy on immigration rather than wrapping himself in the tricolour. In Germany quite a few people say things like "How can we compete with China and the US if we're not united?" Britain never reached that stage. Elite arrogance didn't allow it. The EU "we" never came into existence here. If someone in Britain used the word "we" in that way, they'd be looked at as if they were a nutcase.

    EU27 does not have the required level of unity to make an example of Britain. What unity it does have is decreasing. In March when Wilders wins a plurality in the Dutch election, everyone will be talking about the Netherlands. And then there's France. Dutch events will affect the atmosphere there. For that matter, Trump could appear by video link at Le Pen's conference in Germany on Saturday. Not a certainty, but it could happen. Nexit and Frexit and goodness knows where else-exit will be the notions of the season. Trump will probably help with that in his inauguration speech.

    Both Britain and EU27 seem to be up you-know-where without a paddle.
    My thesis is that the EU (in hindsight) probably knows it made a mistake with free movement and the UK. Or, more accurately, failed to read the runes on immigration itself.

    But, they also blame Cameron's political expediency, and slightly cynical negotiation, just as much for that. And countries like Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark mourn the loss of the UK probably more than they are angered by it.

    Others will be more angered, but also relieved, as they recognise the UK was a break on ever-closer union and half-out anyway.

    The Trump card, played correctly, could work in the UK's favour both ways.
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    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    Old cove in charge of NPD in previous job named projects after Overlord beaches....until someone rumbled him.....
    Heh.

    When I was working on a major UK retailer's plan to build/open one of Europe's largest depots, I named it Project FMS.

    A few months later I met the board and they asked what FMS stood for, I sheepishly and sotto voce said 'Fucking Massive Shed'
    Operation von Choltitz would be my choice for the Paris move.

    Re your FMS project, was it near Daventry?


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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Sandpit said:

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    You managed to resist Operation Overlord?
    Yeah and Projects Waterloo and Mers-el-Kébir
    You should call it Project Dien Bien Phu.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    EU federalists will think exactly as you describe; the EU heads of government will not.

    I know who will win out.
    If Merkel is reelected, she will uphold the integrity of the treaties at any cost.
    Her position has been restricted access to the single market if we don't accept the four freedoms.

    We've said: ok.
    Why would the Germans want to risk us slapping import duties on German cars? Tariff-free trade seems best for all concerned.
    The EU negotiating term will be based on how much UK based business they reckon they can have relocate to the continent versus how much they will lose in UK exports.

    Talk about 'punishing us' is a load of nonsense but there will be a load of mercantilism.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Interesting snippet in German press

    The head of the AfD in Mecklenburg Vorpommern has announced he is going head to head with Angela Merkel in her consitiuency in East Germany with the aim of unseating her.

    On paper he hasnt a hope, Merkel won 56% of the last vote, but since then there have been boundary changes, the AfD have overtaken the CDU in the local polls and Mrs Merkel is not as popular as she was.




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    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    Old cove in charge of NPD in previous job named projects after Overlord beaches....until someone rumbled him.....
    Heh.

    When I was working on a major UK retailer's plan to build/open one of Europe's largest depots, I named it Project FMS.

    A few months later I met the board and they asked what FMS stood for, I sheepishly and sotto voce said 'Fucking Massive Shed'
    Operation von Choltitz would be my choice for the Paris move.

    Re your FMS project, was it near Daventry?


    No. Near Doncaster.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    You managed to resist Operation Overlord?
    Yeah and Projects Waterloo and Mers-el-Kébir
    You should call it Project Dien Bien Phu.
    Didn't Marine le Pen's old man fight there?
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    Sandpit said:

    Pound up three cents on the dollar since this morning, one and a half against the Euro.


    Just removing uncertainty helps.

    But how much uncertainty has been removed? It was widely trailed beforehand that we'd be leaving the single market. Now, though, the promise of a parliamentary vote seems to leave the door slightly ajar to the possibility of remaining in the EU after all, should everything be going pear-shaped in 2 years.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,184

    tpfkar said:

    The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.

    And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.
    Or May calls a GE, is returned to office with a bigger majority and a new manifesto pledge to pass it, and it sails through.
    How would that work? For May to have lost the first vote (or a vote of confidence) ere opting out
    Either way, it is a complete mess.
    May calls a general election and you vote Tory if you like the deal, LD if you think it is too hard, UKIP if you think it is too soft and Corbyn Labour if you want to turn post Brexit UK into Cuba!
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    edited January 2017

    So, to go all Kremlinology on this, it looks like Hammond lost in Cabinet on single market.

    The poor man never stood a chance. The Tory Right are sniffing Trump now and their tails are up. They have long despised the effete, Europeanized Britain with its pampered ways and insufficient respect for the mighty and want us to muscle up. Trump's US will be their blueprint. As for the rest of us - we will learn to accept that we were allowed too much of what wasn't deemed good for us. We will work; we will make ends meet; we will die.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....

    Not an extension but a revocation. It would be an easy decision for them if the UK were contrite enough.
    We are not going to be contrite enough.
    If the whole strategy had failed and been seen to fail within Britain, that would be enough. We wouldn't forget the experience in a hurry and there would be no appetite to repeat it.

    I have no desire to be Juncker's footstool. I'd rather fucking starve.
    You won't be deciding though. Parliament will.
    Not if Tim Farron gets his way
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    welshowl said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    You managed to resist Operation Overlord?
    Yeah and Projects Waterloo and Mers-el-Kébir
    You should call it Project Dien Bien Phu.
    Didn't Marine le Pen's old man fight there?
    No, he arrived in Vietnam afterwards. Torturing Algerians was more his line.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    edited January 2017
    removed.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154

    The Tory Right are sniffing Trump now and their tails are up. They have long despised the effete, Europeanized Britain with its pampered ways and insufficient respect for the mighty and want us to muscle up. Trump's US will be their blueprint.

    https://twitter.com/MarinaHyde/status/821291243938390016
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Rudd on R5 says Parly vote will be on "deal or no deal" not "leave or stay".

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209
    dr_spyn said:
    He really didn't, he would have looked thoroughly incompetent.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    Her definition of "internationalism" seems to be mass immigration, travel to the continent, and the Commonwealth.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    Old cove in charge of NPD in previous job named projects after Overlord beaches....until someone rumbled him.....
    Heh.

    When I was working on a major UK retailer's plan to build/open one of Europe's largest depots, I named it Project FMS.

    A few months later I met the board and they asked what FMS stood for, I sheepishly and sotto voce said 'Fucking Massive Shed'
    He he, many many years ago I was involved with formulating a mentholated green version of a very popular cough medicine. We code named the formulations WV1, WV2 etc. WV stood for wombat vomit. First time I've ever told that story :grin:
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154
    TGOHF said:

    Rudd on R5 says Parly vote will be on "deal or no deal" not "leave or stay".

    This from the government that thought it could invoke A50 using the Royal prerogative.
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    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    TM could hardly say in a speech that a great unraveling of the EU would be in our interests.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Rudd on R5 says Parly vote will be on "deal or no deal" not "leave or stay".

    This from the government that thought it could invoke A50 using the Royal prerogative.
    Pienaar agreeing with her that Brexit is now certain and irreversable.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,599
    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    I'm a Tory at heart (not been a party supporter for some time), and I think whether or not the political institutions of the EU unravell is none of our business, but it is in our interests for the area to grow and prosper - that's obvious.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154

    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    TM could hardly say in a speech that a great unraveling of the EU would be in our interests.
    So your answer is that you don't agree with it and you think Theresa May may not agree with it either?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    edited January 2017
    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    Absolutely!

    Why would we want economic or political uncertainty in our largest trading partner?
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,729
    FTSE slides as pound gains on May speech
    The UK's benchmark share index loses ground as the pound surges following Theresa May's speech on Brexit.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    Of course. It's very UKIP to want the EU to fail. I'd go further; the EZ countries need to accelerate their political and fiscal integration. I would like to see a more loosely coupled EU (as May alluded to in her speech), but it's really up to EU electorates now.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,155

    tpfkar said:

    The vote will be "do you approve regulations X"? so it won't itself specify what a No vote means.

    And if parliament says 'No' that would effectively be a vote of no confidence. A new PM goes straight to Brussels and calls it off.
    I'm not sure the rest of the EU would wear that unless Britain had properly changed its mind. They'd rather Britain not leave, but they won't want to be continually jerked about while Britain faffs around having constitutional crises. So I think it's a second referendum or bust. But would there be time for a second referendum before the bust?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    tpfkar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Been out.

    Summary pls. Keep it pithy and to the point.

    Thanks

    Farage loved it. Farron didn't.
    What has been the reaction of industry bosses?
    Will any switch funding from Tories to LibDems?
    and risk Comrade Corbyn? I don't think so.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Impact of May's speech on Labour.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRJby3PCfbo
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Well my old Mum's just e-mailed on Brexit (NEVER EVER does politics) - she thought speech was great.
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    Scott_P said:
    Clearly he didn't actually bother to listen to the speech.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,854
    Do I take it that the previous promise of a vote on the triggering of A50 based on a negotiating strategy document (closely related to what has been laid out today) has not been broken, that the promise of a 'deal or no deal' vote after negotiation does not usurp it?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pro_Rata said:

    Do I take it that the previous promise of a vote on the triggering of A50 based on a negotiating strategy document (closely related to what has been laid out today) has not been broken, that the promise of a 'deal or no deal' vote after negotiation does not usurp it?

    There will be no document. The speech was it
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    John_M said:

    Sandpit said:

    FYI I named our move to Paris as 'Project Collaborators'

    My other suggestions were Operation Dynamo or Operation Agincourt.

    You managed to resist Operation Overlord?
    Yeah and Projects Waterloo and Mers-el-Kébir
    You should call it Project Dien Bien Phu.
    Didn't Marine le Pen's old man fight there?
    No, he arrived in Vietnam afterwards. Torturing Algerians was more his line.
    Crikey! Didn't know he'd been in Algeria.

    Still he's not my cup of tea anyway.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Scott_P said:
    Clearly he didn't actually bother to listen to the speech.
    It's a bit like moaning that network equipment made in the UK has to comply with the TCP/IP protocol. It's a terrible loss of sovereignty /facepalm.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pro_Rata said:

    Do I take it that the previous promise of a vote on the triggering of A50 based on a negotiating strategy document (closely related to what has been laid out today) has not been broken, that the promise of a 'deal or no deal' vote after negotiation does not usurp it?

    Sounds like the votes will be

    "Can we trigger A50 Y/N"

    "Should we leave with this deal or leave without a deal Y/N"
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Some of the less enlightened Twitterati, who were complaining about the pound tanking the other day, are now complaining that in the aftermath of the PM's speech "x billion is wiped off the value of British companies as the stock market crashes!"
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So have we found out what Brexit means?
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    Similar to the way Henry VIII reunited the country after the reformation - the followers of the European based undemocratic deity can either flee to France/Flanders or be burnt alive and their property confiscated.

    If that's a "hard Brexit" then well "shrug"...

    I have no idea if that is what you actually believe or a parody of what an idiot would believe.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    John_M said:

    Scott_P said:
    Clearly he didn't actually bother to listen to the speech.
    It's a bit like moaning that network equipment made in the UK has to comply with the TCP/IP protocol. It's a terrible loss of sovereignty /facepalm.
    But we should negotiate hard for an opt out to IPV6. ;)
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    So have we found out what Brexit means?

    Minister for Brexit now up in the HoC
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited January 2017
    John_M said:

    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    Of course. It's very UKIP to want the EU to fail. I'd go further; the EZ countries need to accelerate their political and fiscal integration. I would like to see a more loosely coupled EU (as May alluded to in her speech), but it's really up to EU electorates now.
    That doesn't say why agree with May on this.

    I doubt the EU could survive a loosening, but if that is considered to be in the British interest then that is what Cameron should have argued for.
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    GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    Tim Farron is everywhere on news channels at the moment. Where the hell is Corbyn? In his ivory tower with his cheeses?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited January 2017

    TGOHF said:

    tpfkar said:

    I'm looking for how she plans to unite the country - the pre-trailed stuff talks about the need to bring the country together and stop talking in terms of Leavers and Remainers. Fair enough - but I want to see how she will achieve this, there's very little in the pre-publicised extracts to satisfy anything other than the committed leavers.

    Similar to the way Henry VIII reunited the country after the reformation - the followers of the European based undemocratic deity can either flee to France/Flanders or be burnt alive and their property confiscated.

    If that's a "hard Brexit" then well "shrug"...

    I have no idea if that is what you actually believe or a parody of what an idiot would believe.
    You need to install the leg pulling font on your device. :D.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: .@Ross_Greer says PM "confused, contradictory & dangerous". "Vague UKgov announcements" mean #indyref2 "looks unavoidable"
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Alistair said:

    So have we found out what Brexit means?

    Brexit means a two-state solution in the Middle East, according to the Times tomorrow.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154

    Alistair said:

    So have we found out what Brexit means?

    Brexit means a two-state solution in the Middle East, according to the Times tomorrow.
    Ah, so global Britain actually does still have a foreign policy...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    edited January 2017
    David Davis making a good summary of the PM's speech in Parliament now.

    Still think that, good though it was, the floor of the House was the right place for a policy announcement of such magnitude.
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    Dromedary said:

    Do any Tories here agree with Theresa May that a "greater unravelling" of the EU would "not be in the best interests of Britain"?

    Her definition of "internationalism" seems to be mass immigration, travel to the continent, and the Commonwealth.

    I agree with the first part
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,131

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    It will be a good kicking as well
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Katie Hopkins Verified account ‏@KTHopkins 2h2 hours ago

    We voted for a better future for our children and our grandchildren. YES THERESA MAY. GO YOU GOOD WOMAN #brexit
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Sandpit said:

    David Davies making a good summary of the PM's speech in Parliament now.

    Still think that, good though it was, the floor of the House was the right place for a policy announcement of such magnitude.


    Should have been 12 tweets...

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,131

    Sandpit said:

    Pound up three cents on the dollar since this morning, one and a half against the Euro.


    Just removing uncertainty helps.

    It is based on inflation and likely interest rate rises not her wish list.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: .@Ross_Greer says PM "confused, contradictory & dangerous". "Vague UKgov announcements" mean #indyref2 "looks unavoidable"

    LOL, that kid would have said exactly the same, irrespective of was or wasn't in the PM's speech.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Scott_P said:
    Clearly he didn't actually bother to listen to the speech.
    Ahe clearly said we will be leaving the ECJ.
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    Garza said:

    Tim Farron is everywhere on news channels at the moment. Where the hell is Corbyn? In his ivory tower with his cheeses?

    For the Lib Dems, Tim must be sensing the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: .@Ross_Greer says PM "confused, contradictory & dangerous". "Vague UKgov announcements" mean #indyref2 "looks unavoidable"

    Great - bring it on - say "Yes2€".

    More bluster from the Nats.

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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,854
    Scott_P said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Do I take it that the previous promise of a vote on the triggering of A50 based on a negotiating strategy document (closely related to what has been laid out today) has not been broken, that the promise of a 'deal or no deal' vote after negotiation does not usurp it?

    There will be no document. The speech was it
    Wow, is this how things are done in 2017? What is the appropriate collective noun for a group of gently sobbing mid-ranking civil servants?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: EU source close to Brexit negotiations tells me Theresa May wants "cherry picking in reverse". Leave EU, then choose what to opt back in to.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    David Davies making a good summary of the PM's speech in Parliament now.

    Still think that, good though it was, the floor of the House was the right place for a policy announcement of such magnitude.

    David Davis actually!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,154
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: EU source close to Brexit negotiations tells me Theresa May wants "cherry picking in reverse". Leave EU, then choose what to opt back in to.

    With such negotiating sleight of hand, those naive Europeans are sure to give us what we want.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,953
    edited January 2017
    justin124 said:

    Sandpit said:

    David Davies making a good summary of the PM's speech in Parliament now.

    Still think that, good though it was, the floor of the House was the right place for a policy announcement of such magnitude.

    David Davis actually!
    Crap! Mistyped it. *quickly edits before anyone else notices*
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Garza said:

    Tim Farron is everywhere on news channels at the moment. Where the hell is Corbyn? In his ivory tower with his cheeses?

    For the Lib Dems, Tim must be sensing the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
    Farron suggesting that May should have copied Cameron's winning strategy to success.

  • Options
    God I hate you Leavers

    Apple has backed up last year's 20% hike in laptop and computer prices with a sharp rise in app costs.

    The move will mean - for the first time - that there is price parity between the dollar and the pound as an App Store product that used to cost 79p in the UK will now be 99p. US customers pay 99 cents.

    The price shift reflects the fall of up to 20% in the pound versus the dollar since the EU referendum and signals Apple was unwilling to effectively earn less, in value terms, from an app purchased in the UK.

    http://news.sky.com/story/apple-raises-app-store-prices-by-up-to-25-amid-weaker-sterling-10732208
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,209

    Garza said:

    Tim Farron is everywhere on news channels at the moment. Where the hell is Corbyn? In his ivory tower with his cheeses?

    For the Lib Dems, Tim must be sensing the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
    No one's mentioned it, but OGH voted for the other guy. I can't imagine Lamb being as good as Farron has been (from a Remainer POV, that is).
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    John_M said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Predictable negativity and spinning by the regular Pb Remainers on the speech. Which would have happened no matter what she'd said.

    I expected nothing less.

    I didn't watch - but sounds as though it was a good speech.
    Personally I was pleased to see she said she didn't want the EU to fail.... constructive approach... let's be good friends and neighbours... this is surely the right approach to start with in public. I was also pleased she didn't make a daft commitment like... none of our money will ever go the EU again.

    On the details - a flexible transitional period sounds complicated and fiddly. Time will tell.
    The line seems to be: we can do a political and economic win-win here. We support the EU in its endeavours, and in regional security, foreign policy, and trade freely with you.

    Or, if you seek to make an example of us, we will walk away and do our own thing.
    The subtext is, "It won't undermine your integrity to let us walk away with a cherry-picked deal because we're special, unlike that great mass of countries on the continent that don't have our tradition of democratic accountability and global outlook."

    They need to make an example of us, and we will be made an example of.
    Is this an opinion or a desire? Why exactly do you want it to fail so much?
    It is clearly a desire by William whose loathing for this country and fanatical blind support for the EU are constantly apparent
    That's a tad unfair. Wanting a fully federal USE is hardly beyond the political pale, and doesn't imply a lack of patriotism.
    I disagree. It may not be beyond the pale but by its very nature a lack of patriotism is implicit in such a position. I would go further and say it also shows a dislike of democracy.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,131

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go

    Bugger
    Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.
    Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.

    I was right you were wrong.

    I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
    What are the other options? Dublin? Frankfurt?
    I think you should certainly make the case for factfinding in La Reunion - which is part of the EU and the Eurozone I believe.
    Dublin and Frankfurt are too small.

    The most elegant solution would be for Scotland to secede/remain in the EU, so we'd set up there.

    Madrid or Barcelona are still possibilities.
    Get your kilts ordered
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    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go

    Bugger
    Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.
    Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.

    I was right you were wrong.

    I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
    What are the other options? Dublin? Frankfurt?
    I think you should certainly make the case for factfinding in La Reunion - which is part of the EU and the Eurozone I believe.
    Dublin and Frankfurt are too small.

    The most elegant solution would be for Scotland to secede/remain in the EU, so we'd set up there.

    Madrid or Barcelona are still possibilities.
    Get your kilts ordered
    From my school and Uni experiences, trust me I don't look good in skirts.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    20 years later, it still hadn't gone away.

    https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/821320154625822724
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Key point about Parliament's vote on Brexit deal - PM refused to say it will be binding. So if she loses it, expect a 2019 general election.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,854
    malcolmg said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jreynoldsMP: Treasury questions in Parliament. Chancellor effectively confirms U.K. out of single market and passporting will go

    Bugger
    Passporting not needed for most wholesale banking out of London and retail banking can be carried out in the rest of the EU using subsidiaries.
    Some PB leavers were saying I was overreacting with our Paris plans.

    I was right you were wrong.

    I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
    What are the other options? Dublin? Frankfurt?
    I think you should certainly make the case for factfinding in La Reunion - which is part of the EU and the Eurozone I believe.
    Dublin and Frankfurt are too small.

    The most elegant solution would be for Scotland to secede/remain in the EU, so we'd set up there.

    Madrid or Barcelona are still possibilities.
    Get your kilts ordered
    Surely, he would be HQ'ing in the lowlands? No kilts required. Or do you just have a thing for, quite literally, Tartan Tories?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,004

    God I hate you Leavers

    Apple has backed up last year's 20% hike in laptop and computer prices with a sharp rise in app costs.

    The move will mean - for the first time - that there is price parity between the dollar and the pound as an App Store product that used to cost 79p in the UK will now be 99p. US customers pay 99 cents.

    The price shift reflects the fall of up to 20% in the pound versus the dollar since the EU referendum and signals Apple was unwilling to effectively earn less, in value terms, from an app purchased in the UK.

    http://news.sky.com/story/apple-raises-app-store-prices-by-up-to-25-amid-weaker-sterling-10732208

    Boo hoo.
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    From my school and Uni experiences, trust me I don't look good in skirts.

    Just be careful where you put your sgian-dubh.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,109

    God I hate you Leavers

    Apple has backed up last year's 20% hike in laptop and computer prices with a sharp rise in app costs.

    The move will mean - for the first time - that there is price parity between the dollar and the pound as an App Store product that used to cost 79p in the UK will now be 99p. US customers pay 99 cents.

    The price shift reflects the fall of up to 20% in the pound versus the dollar since the EU referendum and signals Apple was unwilling to effectively earn less, in value terms, from an app purchased in the UK.

    http://news.sky.com/story/apple-raises-app-store-prices-by-up-to-25-amid-weaker-sterling-10732208

    Your fault for buying Apple. ;)

    This may be of interest:
    http://www.osnews.com/story/29607/US_appeals_court_revives_antitrust_lawsuit_against_Apple
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,109
    Was out for the speech, but from seeing the summary it seems a bit of a curate's egg. But at least we now have a direction.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,599

    God I hate you Leavers

    Apple has backed up last year's 20% hike in laptop and computer prices with a sharp rise in app costs.

    The move will mean - for the first time - that there is price parity between the dollar and the pound as an App Store product that used to cost 79p in the UK will now be 99p. US customers pay 99 cents.

    The price shift reflects the fall of up to 20% in the pound versus the dollar since the EU referendum and signals Apple was unwilling to effectively earn less, in value terms, from an app purchased in the UK.

    http://news.sky.com/story/apple-raises-app-store-prices-by-up-to-25-amid-weaker-sterling-10732208

    What has Apple fleecing you got to do with Leavers?
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    God I hate you Leavers

    Apple has backed up last year's 20% hike in laptop and computer prices with a sharp rise in app costs.

    The move will mean - for the first time - that there is price parity between the dollar and the pound as an App Store product that used to cost 79p in the UK will now be 99p. US customers pay 99 cents.

    The price shift reflects the fall of up to 20% in the pound versus the dollar since the EU referendum and signals Apple was unwilling to effectively earn less, in value terms, from an app purchased in the UK.

    http://news.sky.com/story/apple-raises-app-store-prices-by-up-to-25-amid-weaker-sterling-10732208

    What's an app?
This discussion has been closed.