The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.
i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
Yeah that's my view. What does May have to do? She might not have spelt out exactly where we end up, but she has been absolutely clear about where we won't be; in the EU in any way, with an end to FoM, and as a consequence almost certainly outside of the single market.
The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.
i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
I'm not watching (Can't) but from the runes on here it sounds like a final deal will be put to parliament (After the two years), since we can't get to a final deal without negotiations.
If the deal is refused then we go onto WTO terms. So in effect there is no choice about Art 50, Brexit is definitely happening...Or am I misreading this.
Seems May's team couldn't get hold of a supply of Sanderson's Throat Specific Mixture.
Half my office (Incl myself) has had a rotten cough since the start of the year. I believe Big G also is afflicted. May has my sympathies if she's sounding a little hoarse.
The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.
i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
I'm not watching (Can't) but from the runes on here it sounds like a final deal will be put to parliament (After the two years), since we can't get to a final deal without negotiations.
If the deal is refused then we go onto WTO terms. So in effect there is no choice about Art 50, Brexit is definitely happening...Or am I misreading this.
We are listening to a serious politician who has taken time to decide but has now absolutely nailed her subject.
You mean they have focus-grouped various shades of Brexit, and realised that this was the only version that the Leave-voting public would find acceptable?
The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.
i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
I'm not watching (Can't) but from the runes on here it sounds like a final deal will be put to parliament (After the two years), since we can't get to a final deal without negotiations.
If the deal is refused then we go onto WTO terms. So in effect there is no choice about Art 50, Brexit is definitely happening...Or am I misreading this.
Seems May's team couldn't get hold of a supply of Sanderson's Throat Specific Mixture.
Half my office (Incl myself) has had a rotten cough since the start of the year. I believe Big G also is afflicted. May has my sympathies if she's sounding a little hoarse.
I was being semi-serious. The Sanderson's is used by actors who have a bad throat to get them through a performance. Seems there has been a shortage of supply due to an ingredient being unavailable.
The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.
i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
And if Parliament votes down the deal don't we simply crash out with no deal?
That is the real question of course.
I doubt she's going to put the vote as (one assumes) Farron wants which would be "OK" or "call it all off and stay a full member as if June 23rd didn't happen" (why would the EU even allow it after all this one asks - and I wouldn't blame them - why lumber yourself with a hefty surly lodger for all time?)
The vote is surely more likely "this deal" or "no deal/WTO".
Seems May's team couldn't get hold of a supply of Sanderson's Throat Specific Mixture.
Half my office (Incl myself) has had a rotten cough since the start of the year. I believe Big G also is afflicted. May has my sympathies if she's sounding a little hoarse.
Big G and Mrs Big G our son and daughter have suffered for three weeks - she seems to be coping reasonably well
The pound rose because she said that there would be a parliamentary vote on the deal.
i.e., because the market is still in denial, and is hoping that Brexit can be scuppered in some way.
And if Parliament votes down the deal don't we simply crash out with no deal?
That is the real question of course.
I doubt she's going to put the vote as (one assumes) Farron wants which would be "OK" or "call it all off and stay a full member as if June 23rd didn't happen" (why would the EU even allow it after all this one asks - and I wouldn't blame them - why lumber yourself with a hefty surly lodger for all time?)
The vote is surely more likely "this deal" or "no deal/WTO".
That’s two years plus (not a big plus) down the track though.
Mrs May is doing her best Mrs T impression here. Lady isn't for turning, and don't dare try the we will punish em stuff, because we won't just assume the position.
Imagine if a politician in Italy talked about a Global Italy. They'd be a laughing-stock.
● Brexit is "not always well understood by our friends in Europe".
Dig that patronising use of litotes! Ditto with the phrase "our friends". She's saying foreigners are simple-minded. And let's imagine the foreign johnnies don't notice. I mean they wouldn't. They're simple. At the Athenaeum and even the Carlton, they'll probably think May has got real class, real subtlety.
Britain has shat in its own porridge, is the truth of it. Its prime minister is now doing an Anthony Eden impersonation.
What I'd like to know more about it whether some kind of partial customs union is practical. Presumably it would mean that, as regards automotive parts and cars, we would be in a customs union with the EU (but not the EU customs union). So presumably it follows from that that we we would have to adopt EU rules and external tariffs on automotive parts and cars, i.e. these goods would be excluded from any trade agreements we signed with non-EU countries.
That's fine as far as it goes, but there are bound to be ambiguous cases - for example, a motor or actuator which can be used in a car but also has other applications. I wonder how well it would work?
Did the big bet between WillianGlenn and SeanT go ahead?
My sense is 1) phased transitional deal may complicate determining who has won 2) acceptance we won't be in single market may speed up process of leaving
What I'd like to know more about it whether some kind of partial customs union is practical. Presumably it would mean that, as regards automotive parts and cars, we would be in a customs union with the EU (but not the EU customs union). So presumably it follows from that that we we would have to adopt EU rules and external tariffs on automotive parts and cars, i.e. these goods would be excluded from any trade agreements we signed with non-EU countries.
That's fine as far as it goes, but there are bound to be ambiguous cases - for example, a motor or actuator which can be used in a car but also has other applications. I wonder how well it would work?
And the certifying body for those parts will be the EU, and the ECJ...
Well lots of clarity, that's welcome. I'm a little more reassured on the competence and direction. But it left me cold, and when she talks about having 65 million people behind her, she can sod off on that one.
I thought the most significant thing was the comments on the customs union. For all her bluster businesses will be leaving in droves if she can't secure suitable import/export arrangements - I imagine this will be a very sensitive area in negotiations.
What I'd like to know more about it whether some kind of partial customs union is practical. Presumably it would mean that, as regards automotive parts and cars, we would be in a customs union with the EU (but not the EU customs union). So presumably it follows from that that we we would have to adopt EU rules and external tariffs on automotive parts and cars, i.e. these goods would be excluded from any trade agreements we signed with non-EU countries.
That's fine as far as it goes, but there are bound to be ambiguous cases - for example, a motor or actuator which can be used in a car but also has other applications. I wonder how well it would work?
Yes. And will those ambiguous cases be determined in the ECJ? And... presumably we will have to accept any changes to those EU rules and external tariffs without having any say?
@GuardianHeather: .@bbclaurak asks if PM's changed mind since saying in campaign leaving single market would make us poorer. Cue waffle about "global Britain"
Seems to me that the negative responses to this speech show just how good it actually was. The vitriol expressed reflects that it wont be the Uk that is fucked but them
Did the big bet between WillianGlenn and SeanT go ahead?
My sense is 1) phased transitional deal may complicate determining who has won 2) acceptance we won't be in single market may speed up process of leaving
Yes, we were hoping to get edmundintokyo to adjudicate.
@iankatz1000: May twice declines invitation to say she has changed her mind on whether Brexit will be good for UK - says only econ data better than feared
@maxrushden: Come on Theresa, refuse to answer a question from a reputable news outlet and scream FAKE NEWS at them. It'll give presser a real 2017 feel
Guess it's implicit in leaving the single market. Cannot see anyway we are staying in that set up after four decades of complaining about straight bananas etc
The UK is the second biggest contributor to the EU budget (as is) and has somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of its economy, over a quarter of its military capability, is the de facto centre of its financial services and London is its creative capital.
Yes, the UK is outnumbered, but it's not true to say that it walking away from the table wouldn't be a huge deal for the EU.
Guess it's implicit in leaving the single market. Cannot see anyway we are staying in that set up after four decades of complaining about straight bananas etc
CAP isn't single market iirc. But you are probably right that she meant it to be implicit.
@RogerBlitz: TMay ends with £ at $1.2250, a 0.7pc rise since start of speech, and 2.2pc increase since Monday's 31-year low of $1.1979
Because the most concrete news is that parliament will be able to vote down the exit deal - effectively giving us a route out of Brexit.
How would voting down the deal give us a route out of Brexit?
If the will of the country changed to remain rather than face a car crash, the EU would be happy for us to stay. It's the integrity of the treaties that they need to protect.
Comments
If the deal is refused then we go onto WTO terms. So in effect there is no choice about Art 50, Brexit is definitely happening...Or am I misreading this.
The financial markets aren't.
Exactly the right way of doing it.
Parliament won't vote it down.
I doubt she's going to put the vote as (one assumes) Farron wants which would be "OK" or "call it all off and stay a full member as if June 23rd didn't happen" (why would the EU even allow it after all this one asks - and I wouldn't blame them - why lumber yourself with a hefty surly lodger for all time?)
The vote is surely more likely "this deal" or "no deal/WTO".
Basically a full hard brexit, but with the undertone that she knows its stupid and is hoping the EU will bail us out
Mildly amused that after a spike of 0.1% rise in inflation, the 0.4% rise in it got precious little mention on Sky.
Great spot by @isaby: "it's not a metric 10-point plan, but a rather more imperial-sounding 12-point plan."
No deal it is then.
No deal better than a bad deal is straight out of the PB Leaver playbook.....
@IanDunt: She hasn't understood that Europe is likely to call her bluff and indeed must do to protect EU.
● "Global Britain".
Imagine if a politician in Italy talked about a Global Italy. They'd be a laughing-stock.
● Brexit is "not always well understood by our friends in Europe".
Dig that patronising use of litotes! Ditto with the phrase "our friends". She's saying foreigners are simple-minded. And let's imagine the foreign johnnies don't notice. I mean they wouldn't. They're simple. At the Athenaeum and even the Carlton, they'll probably think May has got real class, real subtlety.
Britain has shat in its own porridge, is the truth of it. Its prime minister is now doing an Anthony Eden impersonation.
Now it begins.
Are remainers like me right that this will be an economic disaster or will Leavers be right?
That's fine as far as it goes, but there are bound to be ambiguous cases - for example, a motor or actuator which can be used in a car but also has other applications. I wonder how well it would work?
My sense is
1) phased transitional deal may complicate determining who has won
2) acceptance we won't be in single market may speed up process of leaving
I thought the most significant thing was the comments on the customs union. For all her bluster businesses will be leaving in droves if she can't secure suitable import/export arrangements - I imagine this will be a very sensitive area in negotiations.
I was right you were wrong.
I'm spending next week in Paris getting wooed by the French, should be fun.
And... presumably we will have to accept any changes to those EU rules and external tariffs without having any say?
A duo decimal Brexit.
UK, USA and Israel don't.
The far-right anti-EU parties in several EU countries are backed not just by the Kremlin but by Israel too.
I expected nothing less.
Yes, the UK is outnumbered, but it's not true to say that it walking away from the table wouldn't be a huge deal for the EU.
Its either 'deal' or 'WTO Crash'......unless you think you can get 27 governments to agree to an extension.....
ScottPFaisal Islam on Sky.