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  • I am saying Brexit will mean people working longer before they can retire. That's all. I accept completely that we have voted for that. I doubt Roma make any contribution to the economy. But most EU immigrants are not Roma. I think it's a shame we are going to prevent them coming here to make a positive contribution, but my side lost. We are where we are.

    I doubt many wealth creating net tax contributing potential immigrants will be stopped from coming to Britain.

    But if we are able to reduce the non wealth creating net tax beneficiaries from coming it will certainly help the UK's financial situation.

    It would also remove a lot of the social tensions that uncontrolled and unprepared for immigration has caused.
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    Scott_P said:
    This only tells part of the story...you need to go back a further year and look at the fall that happened when referendum bill was announced and then in parliament. The starting point of the fall was 1.50-1.55 not 1.45!.
  • Scott_P said:
    To get a handle on where Gove rates compared to Farage we need to know whether the 'I Love Me' wall is more or less important than the golden lift.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pong said:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38631832

    Mr Trump added: "Countries want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity, but I do think if they hadn't been forced to take in all of the refugees than you wouldn't have a Brexit."

    lol

    He's spot on and completely wrong at the same time.

    Britain has hardly taken any refugees in the grand scheme of things - but the *fear* of the hoards of migrants - as depicted in Farages poster - most definitely did win the referndum for leave.

    That was worth ~5% at least, IMO.

    England is more densely populated than the Netherlands, and still growing by the approximate equivalent of every man, woman and child in Liverpool every 12 months.

    The refugee disaster can't have helped the Remain campaign, but it wasn't the whole story when it comes to that particular subject. Not by some distance.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Personally I'm amazed that the whole 'I consume therefore I am' economy has kept going so long.

    I remember thinking back in 2007-8 "People will have to see sense now and start living within their means".

    A trillion pounds of government borrowing and with the current account deficit at record levels later ...
    Low interest rates. Cheap credit. People (not all people, but more than enough of them) are hooked. It's economic crack cocaine.

    The longer it goes on for, the worse the reckoning will be.

    God this is depressing.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,415
    @another_richard

    The UK is likely to go into recession at the same time the rest of Europe is recovering, and at a time when we're clamping down on immigration.

    To me, that spells negative net migration for a while.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    To cap it all the situation in Kosovo looks to be escalating with Serbia threatening to use force.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38630152
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981



    I have opinion poll backing for my contention that things have got worse in the last year. You are seeking to handwave this away (as your fellow travellers like to put it). But so far the evidence suggests that Brexit is tainting British society.

    OK: let's assume you are right and the referendum was won by racism, insularity and whatever on the part of Leave. Equally it was lost by a mixture of laziness, stupidity, vanity and conceit on the part of Remain. With every repetitive whine about the result, accusing every single leave voter of racism and so on you buy into charges of laziness, complacency and vanity yourself. This is direct democracy in action. So how much effort did you put into campaigning - actually getting out there and canvassing - in the days and weeks prior to the vote? Because if the answer is "absolutely none", may I, as a fellow disappointed Remain voter, urge you to stfu?
  • To get a handle on where Gove rates compared to Farage we need to know whether the 'I Love Me' wall is more or less important than the golden lift.
    Although they were mostly cropped off, didn't the Farage photo have some low-grade Kippers standing about too? That looks to be Gove and Trump alone. Gove's made it!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313

    Those saying "oh dear, Sterling's falling" are little better than those saying we brought the Blitz on ourselves because of our declaration of war against Germany 12 months earlier.

    There is a phrase which I suspect I will be using ad nauseam on this site: reportage isn't advocacy. Saying something is happening isn't the same as liking it nor wanting it to happen
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    The root of Trump's opposition to the EU is revealed:

    https://twitter.com/jonathanhealy/status/820759502203056129
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    England is more densely populated than the Netherlands, and still growing by the approximate equivalent of every man, woman and child in Liverpool every 12 months.

    The refugee disaster can't have helped the Remain campaign, but it wasn't the whole story when it comes to that particular subject. Not by some distance.
    When your start to close a historic race course and a football ground for housing,overpopulation comes to mind.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    Low interest rates. Cheap credit. People (not all people, but more than enough of them) are hooked. It's economic crack cocaine.

    The longer it goes on for, the worse the reckoning will be.

    God this is depressing.
    Well, in my lifetime we've had inflation north of 25%, interest rates (albeit briefly) at 15% and unemployment at 11%. Thankfully, not all at the same time.

    We are going to have a pretty rocky time over the next few years. Sterling is going to be pounded like the proverbial dockside hooker.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,530
    edited January 2017

    Again people out of touch on immigration,must be all these rich folks on here.

    I agree with richard,the rotherham example is what is happening where I live .

    The Rotherham Roma story alone involves not only Rotherham council

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/jsna/info/23/people/46/communities_of_interest/7

    and the South Yorkshire plods and BBC visiting Slovakia

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29068034

    but amazingly the Foreign Office

    https://blogs.fco.gov.uk/martinharris/2013/04/02/roma-inclusion-in-rotherham-and-romania/

    also getting involved.

    Not to mention the departments of health, education, social services, environment etc

    And yet we're told that immigration doesn't put pressure on government services.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677



    It is positive and negative but inflation will be the worry. However I remember the day the BOE increased interest rates to 15% and we survived. Currencies rise and fall and the big plus today is the unprecedented low interest rates

    I'm mainly paid in Euros and Swiss francs, so it's good for me, and no doubt some others too - SeanT with his German book sales, perhaps. But it's clearly disruptive, at a time when business above all wants some stability and clarity.

    How long did that 15% last? From memory, no more than a few days?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    rcs1000 said:

    Personal view: his attitude will have opposite of the desired effect.

    His attitude to Scottish independence could have an impact on sentiment there...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313

    I know of one trader who is shorting sterling because he thinks all other traders will irrationally oversell sterling.

    Of such calculations are currency values made.
    I transferred approx £4KGBP into USD last night (see that night's thread for the discussion). I'll let you know next Saturday how it turned out.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited January 2017
    On topic: Surely Shadsy wouldn't be such a cad as to void the 1/25 bet just because there was a zombie apocalypse?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,415

    The root of Trump's opposition to the EU is revealed:

    https://twitter.com/jonathanhealy/status/820759502203056129

    The EU has many powers (too many, I think), but I don't think it does building approvals in Ireland.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,344
    edited January 2017
    FF43 said:

    The question is whether he's saying random stuff or whether he has an agenda. You never know with Trump.
    Agenda or rando?

    'During the interview, held in Mr Trump's offices in Trump Tower, New York, the president-elect also said he thought Mrs Merkel was the "by far the most important European leader".'
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    viewcode said:

    There is a phrase which I suspect I will be using ad nauseam on this site: reportage isn't advocacy. Saying something is happening isn't the same as liking it nor wanting it to happen
    People are perfectly entitled to whinge on here. I wouldn't have shut up had the result gone the other way. The changes the UK will go through are going to impact peoples' lives, relationships and livelihoods, in some cases severely.

    Based on what we've learned today, I'm glad I'm not a farmer as just one example.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    The Rotherham Roma story alone involves not only Rotherham council

    http://www.rotherham.gov.uk/jsna/info/23/people/46/communities_of_interest/7

    and the South Yorkshire plods and BBC visiting Slovakia

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-29068034

    but amazingly the Foreign Office

    https://blogs.fco.gov.uk/martinharris/2013/04/02/roma-inclusion-in-rotherham-and-romania/

    also getting involved.

    Not to mention the departments of health, education, social services, environment etc

    And yet we're told that immigration doesn't put pressure on government services.
    Our local health centre has slovakian translators(prob polish ) just a little clue where part of our health money is going.
  • The Times and Telegraph headlines from Trump Tower are not good at all for remainer's or the EU

    However let's see how this evolves but it has opened the door for Theresa May to say on Tuesday that only by exiting the single market and customs union can we get the trade deal promised by US
  • On topic: Surely Shadsy wouldn't be such a cad as to void the 1/25 bet just because there was a zombie apocalypse?

    Is one likely ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I'm mainly paid in Euros and Swiss francs, so it's good for me, and no doubt some others too - SeanT with his German book sales, perhaps. But it's clearly disruptive, at a time when business above all wants some stability and clarity.

    How long did that 15% last? From memory, no more than a few days?
    15% lasted a long time. It was the 17% that lasted a few hours.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited January 2017

    I'm mainly paid in Euros and Swiss francs, so it's good for me, and no doubt some others too - SeanT with his German book sales, perhaps. But it's clearly disruptive, at a time when business above all wants some stability and clarity.

    How long did that 15% last? From memory, no more than a few days?
    It never actually took effect in practice; the highest effected base rate was 12% iirc, but it quickly returned to 10%. Mind you, by today's standards, that's eye-wateringly high.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

    *edit* In light of @surbiton's post and for the benefit of the youngsters on here, most standard mortgages were base rate + n%.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    The root of Trump's opposition to the EU is revealed:

    https://twitter.com/jonathanhealy/status/820759502203056129

    Even though it was not the EU who was responsible, it should nonetheless take credit for this. The boor was denied. Good.
  • The Times and Telegraph headlines from Trump Tower are not good at all for remainer's or the EU

    However let's see how this evolves but it has opened the door for Theresa May to say on Tuesday that only by exiting the single market and customs union can we get the trade deal promised by US

    No country is going to start negotiating a trade deal with us until it knows what our relationship with the EU will be.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    it has opened the door for Theresa May to say on Tuesday that only by exiting the single market and customs union can we get the trade deal promised by US

    @jessicaelgot: If you think any of the quotes in that Trump interview actually amount to any firm commitment at all, I have a bridge to sell you
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,415

    The Times and Telegraph headlines from Trump Tower are not good at all for remainer's or the EU

    However let's see how this evolves but it has opened the door for Theresa May to say on Tuesday that only by exiting the single market and customs union can we get the trade deal promised by US

    If Donald Trump imposes profit taxes on firms exporting to the US (as is proposed), that's not going to be so great.

    (The plan is that, if you sell products or services into the US, you should pay corporate income taxes equivalent to what you would have paid had you been a US corporate making said product in the US. The effect is that, if ARM were to sell a $1m licence to Qualcomm it would need to pay $100,000 of income tax to the US. This is on all countries, whether they have FTAs with the US or not. It is, to say the least, massively anti-free trade, and would hit us - who produce high margin services - particularly hard.)

    There's some detail here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-20/why-trumps-border-tax-proposal-most-important-thing-nobody-talking-about
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    On topic: Surely Shadsy wouldn't be such a cad as to void the 1/25 bet just because there was a zombie apocalypse?

    It is just possible that the zombie apocalypse could prevent an inauguration, particularly if Trump and Pence got eaten by the living dead.
  • To cap it all the situation in Kosovo looks to be escalating with Serbia threatening to use force.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38630152

    How strongly allied is Serbia to Russia ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357
    viewcode said:

    I transferred approx £4KGBP into USD last night (see that night's thread for the discussion). I'll let you know next Saturday how it turned out.
    Probably a good move. Although those sorts of moves, in themselves, is what is driving the currency down.

    Not having such deep pockets, I am a spectator in this.
  • It is just possible that the zombie apocalypse could prevent an inauguration, particularly if Trump and Pence got eaten by the living dead.
    It would be fun if all the dead Presidents from Reagan to Washington resurrected themselves and marched on the inauguration.
  • Scott_P said:

    @jessicaelgot: If you think any of the quotes in that Trump interview actually amount to any firm commitment at all, I have a bridge to sell you
    Again you use selective quotes. I said 'lets see how this evolves ...but it has opened the door etc
  • No country is going to start negotiating a trade deal with us until it knows what our relationship with the EU will be.

    This is Trump remember
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    When your start to close a historic race course and a football ground for housing,overpopulation comes to mind.
    If we didn't do something now to simply begin to slow down runaway population growth, we would've ended up having to annex a large chunk of South-East England to London and have the entire lot paved with hundreds of square kilometers of soul-destroying cloned estates of nasty, rabbit hutch houses. Along with a maze of roads, motorways and railways to string it all together. This was not an appealing prospect.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313
    We've had this discussion before and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.

    2010: 1.6150
    2011: 1.5610
    2012: 1.5507
    2013: 1.6245
    2014: 1.6554
    2015: 1.5571
    2016: 1.4740
    2017: 1.2302

    Friday: 1.2189

    Sources
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2017-01-01
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-13_01_2017-exchange-rate-history.html
  • This is Trump remember

    I think he is entirely untrustworthy.

  • It is just possible that the zombie apocalypse could prevent an inauguration, particularly if Trump and Pence got eaten by the living dead.
    On a more serious note he must be a nightmare to keep safe from possible assassination
  • John_M said:

    It never actually took effect in practice; the highest effected base rate was 12% iirc, but it quickly returned to 10%. Mind you, by today's standards, that's eye-wateringly high.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

    *edit* In light of @surbiton's post and for the benefit of the youngsters on here, most standard mortgages were base rate + n%.
    Its a pleasant irony but Black Wednesday and leaving the ERM led to much lower UK interest rates and tens of thousands of people being able to keep their homes which would otherwise have been repossessed.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    I think he is entirely untrustworthy.

    Yes.

    I fear it's only a matter of time before he falls out bigly with Putin.

    That's a really scary prospect.
  • How strongly allied is Serbia to Russia ?
    They are planning to join the EU, I think.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:
    With Angela Merkel cast in the role of the penguin. Night night all.
  • I think he is entirely untrustworthy.

    He gives that impression - action will speak louder than words
  • NEW THREAD

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,313

    Probably a good move. Although those sorts of moves, in themselves, is what is driving the currency down.

    Not having such deep pockets, I am a spectator in this.
    Thank you. It's quite difficult: I like transferring from a GBP to USD account (and vice versa) because it's conceptually simple and an intra-bank transfer with little concomitant risk, so it's far easier than, say, an IGIndex account (which scares the willies off me).

    The disadvantage is the spread, which is about 2-3 cents each way (it's not explicitly stated so has to be deduced). So it should only be used if the expected move is greater than 5 cents. I assume May's speech will be such an event, hence the move.

    Of course, if GBP/UD goes up (buy on the rumour, sell on the fact), I'm going to lose. But that's why they call it gambling... :(

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Alistair said:

    The pensioners parents also voted, but they chose to vote for things that benefitted the next generation.
    Well someone hasn't read the propaganda leaflet given to everybody at the time. Back then we didn't have mass communication available to the masses. And most people voted for a Common Market, not a Federal Europe.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    weejonnie said:

    Well someone hasn't read the propaganda leaflet given to everybody at the time. Back then we didn't have mass communication available to the masses. And most people voted for a Common Market, not a Federal Europe.
    Ok. Can we have it now ? The Common Market was a free trade area plus freedom of movement.
  • AlsoIndigoAlsoIndigo Posts: 1,852
    edited January 2017
    John_M said:

    I'm sceptical about these stories. End product reports for the pols are carefully shaped to shed as little light as possible about the sources and techniques used to garner that intelligence.

    Sometimes it's necessary to show a bit of ankle, but we're used to disseminating intelligence to parties who might be allies (coalition members, the French, the Israelis) but who we don't necessarily trust.
    Not just that, the top people at the CIA know there is going to be a new sheriff in town in four days and nothing they can do is going to change that. Most of these people are career bureaucrats,and pissing off the incoming administration is not the way to a long and fulsome career.

    Trump's new DNI will be in the saddle in a few days and questions will be asked about who is behind these stories and what basis there is for them in fact. If there isn't solid incontrovertible evidence, people are going to be looking for new jobs I would think.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scott_P said:

    A hard Brexit with deep cuts to immigration would force Britons into longer working lives in order to maintain a sustainable ratio of workers and pensioners, according to modelling conducted for the Guardian.

    Rises in the state pension age are already anticipated as a result of increased life expectancy and large numbers of baby boomers retiring. But further delays to pension payments will be necessary if current levels of immigration, which sustains the country’s old age dependency ratio, are not maintained, the Oxford university work indicates.

    “The message from Brexit is: if you don’t want immigrants, you’re going to have to work longer,” said Prof Sarah Harper, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing and chair of the UK government’s Foresight Review on Ageing Societies. “That’s how the sums work.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/15/hard-brexit-means-retiring-later-britons-warned

    There is an underlying assumption that people don't like working, and want to stop working, whereas evidence is that working is good for you, and those who work longer into life, live longer. Certainly, I find purpose, value and fun in my work that give me reason and energy. I would miss it if I were to retire. I simply do not plan to retire until I am physically or mentally unable to work.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    As a percentage of population, Ireland is first, and Singapore second.

    Does anyone other than me think that is a bit strange, what with Singapore being one of the richest countries in the world on any measure.

    IIRC, Singapore is very unfriendly for gays. I had two steno secretaries at the UN. Both gay Singaporeans.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    As a percentage of population, Ireland is first, and Singapore second.

    Does anyone other than me think that is a bit strange, what with Singapore being one of the richest countries in the world on any measure.
    Interesting stats. Not doing the actual arithmetic but eyeballing it, that gives just shy of a million Brits and 150k foreigners. So about 13%. High, but nowhere near as high as I would have guessed.
This discussion has been closed.