politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now you can bet on how many LAB MPs will quit as during 2017
Options
Comments
-
Really interesting May has chosen to leak the speech.
Some mega spinning going on.
0 -
Some of us have been saying for months that soft and even semi-soft Brexit were non-starters. And now you're excited because your preferred and fallback forms of Brexit, touted as recently as 24 hours ago, have been ruled out? You're too pitiful to mock.SeanT said:We really are OUT. It's quite a THING.
0 -
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
0 -
Will crooks pinch BMWs abroad and drive them to UK?0
-
It's the correct negotiating position.John_M said:
I think it's positioning as the article implies. We'd love to stay in the Single Market (the 'Have Cake, Eat Cake' gambit), but if FoM is truly non-negotiable, then we're prepared to, and will, leave it ('with heavy hearts due to EU27 intransigence').williamglenn said:This is just stating directly what she's hinted at in every speech from the beginning. I still think it's fundamentally a negotiation bluff, and the market reaction will be very interesting to watch.
It's also the correct political position.
0 -
I was thinking Forest.bigjohnowls said:
1966 the WorldMarqueeMark said:
There was a time we ruled Europe....bigjohnowls said:BREAKING: Nottingham Forest sack head coach Philippe Montanier:
BREXIT has started
2017 not so much but barricade them borders
But I can imagine why you wouldn't think club-wide..... ;-)0 -
-
From memory, GBP went from £1=$1.5 at 10pm when the polls closed to about £1=$1,32 in short order, then rebounded to about £1=$1.35, then after the conference speech it went to £1=$1.21 in one-two weeks, then it rebounded to around £1=$1.25 until last week until - yes - she spoke again and it went to, what, £1=$1.22?Black_Rook said:hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday.
On an not-entirely-unrelated point, I'm plowing thru clips of "Margin Call" on youtube.
It isn't easy viewing...0 -
Cameron should have done this - it is good to see a British PM telling the EU for once to take it or leave it.glw said:
Indeed, the complete opposite of that muppet Cameron's negotiation 'tactics'.John_M said:
I think it's positioning as the article implies. We'd love to stay in the Single Market (the 'Have Cake, Eat Cake' gambit), but if FoM is truly non-negotiable, then we're prepared to, and will, leave it ('with heavy hearts due to EU27 intransigence').williamglenn said:This is just stating directly what she's hinted at in every speech from the beginning. I still think it's fundamentally a negotiation bluff, and the market reaction will be very interesting to watch.
0 -
Obviously not Scott as we have not left yet or even triggered article 50.Scott_P said:
"Downing Street expect her remarks to cause a 'market correction'..."Big_G_NorthWales said:Good politics to get it out at the weekend and to see just how the markets react on monday and tuesday.
However can anyone really say they did not expect this having listened to Theresa May since she became PM
oh wait - your default argument was inconsistent and a pile of horse shit.
0 -
I realise that you would rather eat your own excrement than admit that I have been right for the last six months while you have been pitifully deluded until as recently as last night. But that, tonight, is what you have to do, in the deepest recesses of what once might have been a heart.SeanT said:
Heh, We're OUT!!!AlastairMeeks said:
Some of us have been saying for months that soft and even semi-soft Brexit were non-starters. And now you're excited because your preferred and fallback forms of Brexit, touted as recently as 24 hours ago, have been ruled out? You're too pitiful to mock.SeanT said:We really are OUT. It's quite a THING.
Suck it up, you creepy anal sea-cucumber.0 -
Except if they say take itBig_G_NorthWales said:
Cameron should have done this - it is good to see a British PM telling the EU for once to take it or leave it.glw said:
Indeed, the complete opposite of that muppet Cameron's negotiation 'tactics'.John_M said:
I think it's positioning as the article implies. We'd love to stay in the Single Market (the 'Have Cake, Eat Cake' gambit), but if FoM is truly non-negotiable, then we're prepared to, and will, leave it ('with heavy hearts due to EU27 intransigence').williamglenn said:This is just stating directly what she's hinted at in every speech from the beginning. I still think it's fundamentally a negotiation bluff, and the market reaction will be very interesting to watch.
0 -
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
0 -
It seems sort of obvious really, if you aren't willing to walk away you will never get a good deal. Cameron badly bungled that.Big_G_NorthWales said:Cameron should have done this - it is good to see a British PM telling the EU for once to take it or leave it.
0 -
Bless you. I've been making that joke all week and NOBODY GOT IT...isam said:0 -
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)0 -
Oh dear, I think you need to check your script...Floater said:Obviously not Scott as we have not left yet or even triggered article 50.
oh wait - your default argument was inconsistent and a pile of horse shit.
We have not left the EU. We are still members of every organisation that the Brexiteers said were stifling our economy and hampering growth.
The ECJ still has jurisdiction.
We are still "paying £350m a week" (sic)
So the economic figures the Brexiteers are cheering are "despite" being a member of the EU. It's the remainer line that these are good things. The Brexiteers still want to throw it all away.
Now Tezza has confirmed that throwing it all away is her default option, "Downing Street expect her remarks to cause a 'market correction'..."
That's Downing Street expect. I am not Downing Street...0 -
Pinochet murdered ("disappeared") thousands, tortured tens of thousands, and exiled hundreds of thousands.another_richard said:
The reason why Pinochet is hated by Western lefties is that he was successful. He was best compared to the leaders of South Korea, Taiwan etc rather than the standard Latin American dictators.SeanT said:
The Chileans understand this. They are very very ambivalent about Pinochet. He's not the Hitler figure we perceive in the West. They realise without him they could be Venezuela.another_richard said:
Want to know a way to annoy a lefty ?SeanT said:
I agree. And I've been to the Chilean winelands to see how they do it.another_richard said:
Chilean wine is IMO the best value in the world.SeanT said:WINE RECOMMENDATION
For anyone on a bit of a budget, but wanting a big wine experience
THIS:
http://www.wine.com/v6/Concha-y-Toro-Marques-de-Casa-Concha-Syrah-2011/wine/130576/Detail.aspx?state=CA
It tastes like a SuperTuscan, it tastes like a £30 Barossa shiraz, it has depth, fruit, power and finish, it has been in the world's top 100 wines 5 times over, and right now you can buy it for.... £9, from Ocado
https://www.ocado.com/webshop/product/Marques-de-Casa-Concha-Syrah/231046011
Really. BUY THIS at that price. I just got a dozen. Gorgeous wine. Open it a few hours before you drink, ideally with steak, game, funky cheeses.
Here Endeth The Sermon.
It is the new Australia. They have it all: western coasts facing intriguing microclimates, lots of bright, determined wine making people, cheap land, cheapish labour, no hang-ups.
They are now making great great wine.
If I'd tasted this wine blind I would have priced it at £20-£30. Apparently Tesco recently offered it for £6!
After giving them some nice Chilean wine say that the Chilean wine industry wouldn't exist with Pinochet and that the Pinochet family are part owners of the brand they've just been drinking.
Opponents mainly bourgeois or what? What did he do that was wrong? You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs.another_richard said:Latin America did not lack for military strong men and other dictators oppressing their people but who were given a free pass by leftwingers in the West.
For example this general
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Velasco_Alvarado
who overthrew the democratically elected Peruvian government and installed himself as head of a military junta followed by the jailing of political opponents, the closure of newspapers and a massive military build-up.
0 -
Delicious.
But, as other posters have pointed out, it's the opening political and negotiating position.
100..
50..
Ok, 90...
60.. tops.
80. Low as I'll go.
70. Not a penny more.
78.
72.
Seventy-EIGHT.
72.
76. Or I walk.
Ok... deal.0 -
I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'0
-
Quite so. Clearly as soft as possible with FOM restrictions is essentially what we want ( well maybe minus the French racket called the CAP too), but if the EU insist that's not on (because they're terrified of "contagion" i.e. consent for the EU is wafer thin and they think too many others will look at the Brits and think "that's a good idea"), then we must be prepared to walk. That was Dave's error, everyone knew that wasn't really a possibility.MarqueeMark said:
It's the correct negotiating position.John_M said:
I think it's positioning as the article implies. We'd love to stay in the Single Market (the 'Have Cake, Eat Cake' gambit), but if FoM is truly non-negotiable, then we're prepared to, and will, leave it ('with heavy hearts due to EU27 intransigence').williamglenn said:This is just stating directly what she's hinted at in every speech from the beginning. I still think it's fundamentally a negotiation bluff, and the market reaction will be very interesting to watch.
It's also the correct political position.
Wonder if Boris's trip to the US last week was a nudge to a harder option (IF this report is true), if the US really is very keen on a deal? Trump to mention in passing on Friday?0 -
She may just do the opposite - no one knows how this will playsurbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)0 -
Compared to the Brexiteers like SeanT?isam said:I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'
"This is not what I want, this is not what I want, this is not what I want. THIS IS THE BEST THING EVER!!!!!!!!"
There will be tears...0 -
@BethRigby: Out of single market/customs union/ECJ jurisdiction. May also wants 'transitional deal' (as per her promise to bis of avoiding cliff edge) twitter.com/hendopolis/sta…
Ummmm, is Tezza willing to walk away, or has she promised Bis (Nissan) something else?0 -
Has SeanT just been banned ???
0 -
Looks as though there have been some...Scott_P said:
Compared to the Brexiteers like SeanT?isam said:I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'
"This is not what I want, this is not what I want, this is not what I want. THIS IS THE BEST THING EVER!!!!!!!!"
There will be tears...0 -
The EU is desperate, May has smelt blood and is going for the kill.Floater said:0 -
She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.Scott_P said:@BethRigby: Out of single market/customs union/ECJ jurisdiction. May also wants 'transitional deal' (as per her promise to bis of avoiding cliff edge) twitter.com/hendopolis/sta…
Ummmm, is Tezza willing to walk away, or has she promised Bis (Nissan) something else?0 -
Has the boss of Nissan been on the phone yet?MonikerDiCanio said:The EU is desperate, May has smelt blood and is going for the kill.
0 -
Trump's likely EU Ambassador, Ted Malloch, has today not only suggested a trade deal will be offered to the UK but other bilateral agreements will be offered to individual EU nations with the US scrapping the proposed EU-US trade dealwelshowl said:
Quite so. Clearly as soft as possible with FOM restrictions is essentially what we want ( well maybe minus the French racket called the CAP too), but if the EU insist that's not on (because they're terrified of "contagion" i.e. consent for the EU is wafer thin and they think too many others will look at the Brits and think "that's a good idea"), then we must be prepared to walk. That was Dave's error, everyone knew that wasn't really a possibility.MarqueeMark said:
It's the correct negotiating position.John_M said:
I think it's positioning as the article implies. We'd love to stay in the Single Market (the 'Have Cake, Eat Cake' gambit), but if FoM is truly non-negotiable, then we're prepared to, and will, leave it ('with heavy hearts due to EU27 intransigence').williamglenn said:This is just stating directly what she's hinted at in every speech from the beginning. I still think it's fundamentally a negotiation bluff, and the market reaction will be very interesting to watch.
It's also the correct political position.
Wonder if Boris's trip to the US last week was a nudge to a harder option (IF this report is true), if the US really is very keen on a deal? Trump to mention in passing on Friday?
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-can-be-your-rich-uncle-us-envoy-tells-britain-2d9rdln790 -
Hard Brexit plus independent Scotland in EU => customs posts on the border and Brits who aren't Scottish citizens needing visas to go to Scotland, so you couldn't blame rUK for requiring Scots who petulantly renounced their British citizenship to get visas to come to England. The border would be a hard external EU one. Hardly anyone in Scotland wants that crap, other than a few bottomfeeders thinking they'd get big grants from the EU.
It would be funny to watch Scottish nationalists whinge about Brussels rather than London telling them what to do, making them clean up their rooms, etc., but seriously nobody is going to vote YesNP in a second independence referendum.0 -
No she represents the country, who by 41% to 32% according to Opinium tonight put ending free movement to the UK ahead of access to the single market (though May will obviously still try and get as much access as she can to the latter)surbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)0 -
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!0 -
I have been warning for a while not to judge TM until her speech this month.
If the reports are true she is decisive and willing to make the tough decisions.
This will have problems with MP's who are predominantly remain but should go down very well with the voters0 -
I really hope it doesn't go wrong.isam said:I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'
But the odds of it going right are very long indeed.
Ask any expert.0 -
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
0 -
But May aint good with numbers less than 100k ends up as 335kCasino_Royale said:Delicious.
But, as other posters have pointed out, it's the opening political and negotiating position.
100..
50..
Ok, 90...
60.. tops.
80. Low as I'll go.
70. Not a penny more.
78.
72.
Seventy-EIGHT.
72.
76. Or I walk.
Ok... deal.0 -
I thought I was popping Out, and before I knew it I was Out Out.....isam said:
(and the Out Out days/nights/nights-that-blur-into-days are always the most memorable and enjoyable)0 -
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic0 -
No, conceding everything would be agreeing to leave free movement exactly as now in order to keep full single market membershipfoxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!0 -
The trouble is that most people (including, apparently, journalists and politicians) wouldn't recognise the Single Market if it bit them on the arse. Sir Humphrey would be beside himself.HYUFD said:
No she represents the country, who by 41% to 32% according to Opinium tonight put ending free movement to the UK ahead of access to the single market (though May will obviously still try and get as much access as she can to the latter)surbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)0 -
Are you serious - ask an expertPong said:
I really hope it doesn't go wrong.isam said:I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'
But the odds of it going right are very long indeed.
Ask any expert.0 -
That's not really the problem. It's the supply chain.John_M said:The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.
As discussed previously, 50% of a Jag comes in boxes from Germany. Tariffs would be bad, but getting stuck in customs for a day while the paperwork is checked would kill the supply chain.
Without the customs union, car manufacturing is in deep, deep trouble0 -
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
0 -
They do recognise though that they voted Leave to get back sovereignty and control of UK borders and they are not going to give that upJohn_M said:
The trouble is that most people (including, apparently, journalists and politicians) wouldn't recognise the Single Market if it bit them on the arse. Sir Humphrey would be beside himself.HYUFD said:
No she represents the country, who by 41% to 32% according to Opinium tonight put ending free movement to the UK ahead of access to the single market (though May will obviously still try and get as much access as she can to the latter)surbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)
0 -
Very serious.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious - ask an expertPong said:
I really hope it doesn't go wrong.isam said:I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'
But the odds of it going right are very long indeed.
Ask any expert.
Standards of living will very likely take a big hit.
Serious social unrest is quite likely.0 -
Oh yes, I do agree with that. I voted to leave reluctantly (worried about the economy), felt it was in our medium-long term interest, but May is clearly primed for a cleaner Brexit than I'd hoped.HYUFD said:
They do recognise though that they voted Leave to get back sovereignty and control of UK borders and they are not going to give that upJohn_M said:
The trouble is that most people (including, apparently, journalists and politicians) wouldn't recognise the Single Market if it bit them on the arse. Sir Humphrey would be beside himself.HYUFD said:
No she represents the country, who by 41% to 32% according to Opinium tonight put ending free movement to the UK ahead of access to the single market (though May will obviously still try and get as much access as she can to the latter)surbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)0 -
Sorry - good on youPong said:
I was being sarcastic.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you serious - ask an expertPong said:
I really hope it doesn't go wrong.isam said:I can feel the nervous anticipation of the remainers from here... 'this is what we've been waiting for... our big moment... pleeeease let it all go wrong!'
But the odds of it going right are very long indeed.
Ask any expert.0 -
I genuinely don't care about whether the EU panic or not: it's not my problem. I do care if British interests are fucked up. Leaving the single market and the customs union will make life more difficult in Britain for British people. That's important.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic0 -
One man's income are another man's costs though...viewcode said:
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
0 -
Why has SeanT been banned?-1
-
Here's the linky for how the EU is funded. Note the bit about import duties. Night night all.Pulpstar said:
One man's income are another man's costs though...viewcode said:
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/money/revenue-income_en0 -
I beg to differ. I've provided a perfectly serviceable example elsewhere on thread.viewcode said:
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
0 -
Stock. It's a wonderful old fashioned concept. Just a couple of days worth while customs stamp the paperwork, and Bob's your uncle. Not as efficient as pure just in time delivery but maybe a Kanban could get round that pretty easily. Add in a lower corporate tax rate and a bit of "compensation " from the tariffs ( if the EU is nuts enough to introduce), or from the billions we are not then sending to Brussels and you're ok enough.Scott_P said:
That's not really the problem. It's the supply chain.John_M said:The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.
As discussed previously, 50% of a Jag comes in boxes from Germany. Tariffs would be bad, but getting stuck in customs for a day while the paperwork is checked would kill the supply chain.
Without the customs union, car manufacturing is in deep, deep trouble
0 -
Tories put ending free movement ahead of access to the single market by 55% to 25%, UKIP voters by 72% to 8%. Labour voters put access to the single market ahead of ending free movement by 53% to 26%, LDs by 53% to 36% and SNP by 44% to 22%.HYUFD said:
No she represents the country, who by 41% to 32% according to Opinium tonight put ending free movement to the UK ahead of access to the single market (though May will obviously still try and get as much access as she can to the latter)surbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)
English voters put controlling free movement first by 42% to 31% and Welsh voters by 39% to 32% and Scots by 37% to 36% and NI voters by 32% to 29%. Looks like we may be a United Kingdom over this after all!
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-10th-january-2017/0 -
Explain the cost to HMRC please. Oh, and STOP SHOUTINGviewcode said:
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
0 -
SeanT and other posters
Threatening/wishing death or violence to other PBers/politicians is a no no on PB.
Any comments like that see PBers have their ability to instantly publish revoked until they agree not to post such comments like that in the future.0 -
Voted leaveSunil_Prasannan said:Why has SeanT been banned?
0 -
Oh dear god, it's capitalism 101.Pulpstar said:
One man's income are another man's costs though...viewcode said:
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
Two people meet. Each has something they don't want and the other has something that they do want. They swap those things and the increase in value is called "wealth".
That is basically it. This is how we build pyramids, roads, steamships and ion rockets. Wealth is created when assets are moved from low-value to high-value uses. Anything that gets in the way of that decreases wealth. Tariffs are impedance to trade and they are always a cost: they reduce the value of the trade and are always a cost overall.
To explain by analogy: if you put a tariff of one hundred billion dollars on ipads, you do not gain one hundred billion dollars, you just destroy the market for ipads. Nobody wins.
0 -
Yes, she is ready to seize the bull by the hornsJohn_M said:
Oh yes, I do agree with that. I voted to leave reluctantly (worried about the economy), felt it was in our medium-long term interest, but May is clearly primed for a cleaner Brexit than I'd hoped.HYUFD said:
They do recognise though that they voted Leave to get back sovereignty and control of UK borders and they are not going to give that upJohn_M said:
The trouble is that most people (including, apparently, journalists and politicians) wouldn't recognise the Single Market if it bit them on the arse. Sir Humphrey would be beside himself.HYUFD said:
No she represents the country, who by 41% to 32% according to Opinium tonight put ending free movement to the UK ahead of access to the single market (though May will obviously still try and get as much access as she can to the latter)surbiton said:
This hapless woman will ruin the country.Black_Rook said:
We are therefore leaving the Single Market.dr_spyn said:
This looks very much like a smokescreen, to enable/convince some soft Brexit-leaning voters to blame our departure on the EU being unreasonable, rather than the PM. In point of fact, given that May has already stated quite categorically that the "authority of EU law in Britain will end" - i.e. the UK will be removed from the jurisdiction of the ECJ - it's impossible to see how we could've remained fully engaged anyway.
It's simple logic, really, and has been obvious for months - hence the fact that the pound lost seven cents against the dollar in the period after the October 2nd conference speech, but is only off about one cent since the Sophy Ridge interview last Sunday. The markets know that this is coming, and have already priced it in.
(The pound will probably take another tumble this coming week now, just to spite me...)0 -
Bollocks. Utter bollocks. Screaming bollocks. We do it, so do our customers. By the way I've got two Queens's awards for export on my wall, so clearly I don't have a clue.Scott_P said:
And fundamentally much, much more expensive, which is why nobody on the planet does it anymore.welshowl said:Stock. It's a wonderful old fashioned concept.
The madness is catching...0 -
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...0 -
She has not said she wants no single market access just that she could be prepared to give up full membership of the single market to control free movement. If she showed she was not willing to do so the EU would inevitably try to force the UK to capitulate instead she has made clear the boundaries within which both sides will be working for any trade dealfoxinsoxuk said:
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...0 -
It was a Terry Pratchett reference.chestnut said:
Explain the cost to HMRC please. Oh, and STOP SHOUTINGviewcode said:
TARIFFS. ARE. NOT. INCOME. THEY. ARE. COSTS.John_M said:
The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.Scott_P said:
If we are out of the customs union, that will be expensive. Very expensive.John_M said:She's allegedly promised Nissan tariff support & compensation for NTBs iirc.
0 -
Well that's one biased take, but you could as easily say that May is not afraid of Juncker's threat of "no single market". Basically May's doing what Cameron should have done.foxinsoxuk said:I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...0 -
She has said she would be willing to cut her leg off to avoid shooting herself in the foot...HYUFD said:She has not said she wants no single market access just that she could be prepared to give up full membership of the single market to control free movement.
With such awesome negotiating skillz, Brexit will be BRILLIANT!0 -
Not everyone makes cars. Some of us make other things. So for me my statement is 100% true.Scott_P said:
And which car manufacturer are you?welshowl said:We do it, so do our customers. By the way I've got two Queens's awards for export on my wall, so clearly I don't have a clue.
Oh...
To keep 2 days stock car plants would have to double in size
0 -
It is not tough negotiating to agree the other parties starting position.HYUFD said:
She has not said she wants no single market access just that she could be prepared to give up full membership of the single market to control free movement. If she showed she was not willing to do so the EU would inevitably try to force the UK to capitulate instead she has made clear the boundaries within which both sides will be working for any trade dealfoxinsoxuk said:
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...
It is probably for the best, probably inevitable, and probably quicker to conclude; but tough, my arse!0 -
Threatening/wishing death or violence to the UK economy - where does that stand?PBModerator said:SeanT and other posters
Threatening/wishing death or violence to other PBers/politicians is a no no on PB.
Any comments like that see PBers have their ability to instantly publish revoked until they agree not to post such comments like that in the future.0 -
Orfoxinsoxuk said:
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...
May: No single market if no immigration controls!
Junker: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
May: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
Junker gets down on all fours0 -
It will certainly be better than anything Remainers could conceivably negotiate judging by their hysterical behaviour.Scott_P said:
She has said she would be willing to cut her leg off to avoid shooting herself in the foot...HYUFD said:She has not said she wants no single market access just that she could be prepared to give up full membership of the single market to control free movement.
With such awesome negotiating skillz, Brexit will be BRILLIANT!0 -
May doesn't have 27 friends so it doesn't work that way.another_richard said:
Orfoxinsoxuk said:
I do want hard Brexit as a planned event rather than a carcrash hard Brexit where nothing happens til the last minute.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I thought you wanted out anyway. The EU will be in panic - make no mistake they have 100 billion of trade and jobs on this.foxinsoxuk said:
So she concedes everything to the EU and agrees with their baseline, and that is victory?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They will panic - the clever bit is that the PM has got her red line in first and if the EU do not negotiate the Brits will just walk away. Up to you Junckerfoxinsoxuk said:
Why would Brussels panic? May has just agreed to their negotiating position on Hard Brexit.williamglenn said:The timing is interesting. Before the Supreme Court and within days of Trump taking office. Perhaps she's trying to create maximum panic in Brussels.
Nothing left to concede should make the rest of the negotiations easy!
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
Agreeing with the EU starting position is hardly tough negotiating.
Juncker: No single market if no free movement!
May: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
Juncker: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
May gets down on all fours...
May: No single market if no immigration controls!
Junker: Anything you say sir, Anything else I can do for you?
May: my shoes need cleaning, can you lick them clean while my 27 friends indulge in watersports?
Junker gets down on all fours
At least we know where we stand., and at least we have all that lovely £350 million per week for the NHS to look forward to.0 -
Theresa throwing down the gauntlet to the Commons and Lords to vote out A50 so she can call an election?0
-
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.Big_G_NorthWales said:...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic0 -
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it?Richard_Nabavi said:
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.Big_G_NorthWales said:...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?0 -
-
There is plenty of evidence that they are half wits!Richard_Nabavi said:
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.Big_G_NorthWales said:...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic0 -
Why would we put tariffs on things we don't want to? Quite easy to place massive tariffs on manufactured goods without touching supply chain for our own manufacturers.Scott_P said:
That's not really the problem. It's the supply chain.John_M said:The UK will have quite a large tariff income due to our colossal trade deficit with the EU27. Too tired to see if anyone has run the numbers based on the current CET, but I'll have a butchers tomorrow.
As discussed previously, 50% of a Jag comes in boxes from Germany. Tariffs would be bad, but getting stuck in customs for a day while the paperwork is checked would kill the supply chain.
Without the customs union, car manufacturing is in deep, deep trouble0 -
He is on Sky tomorrow with Sophie I thinkFrancisUrquhart said:0 -
One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU. As she rightly pointed out a few days ago, that means we are not trying to keep some bits of EU membership (no cherry-picking!). Instead, as a non-member of the EU, we will want to have a good relationship with the EU, from the outside.0
-
-
It's not about tariffs. It's about customs checks. Unless we are part of the customs union, every component will need to be checked. The JIT supply chain will be fcked.FormerToryOrange said:Why would we put tariffs on things we don't want to? Quite easy to place massive tariffs on manufactured goods without touching supply chain for our own manufacturers.
0 -
No-one, but you can't agree a deal with a counterparty who is legally incapable of agreeing it, not to mention politically completely unwilling.GIN1138 said:Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?0 -
-
Rather more that they aren't, imo.foxinsoxuk said:
There is plenty of evidence that they are half wits!Richard_Nabavi said:
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.Big_G_NorthWales said:...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic0 -
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.Richard_Nabavi said:One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
0 -
https://twitter.com/zorasuleman/status/820416369854468096foxinsoxuk said:There is plenty of evidence that they are half wits!
0 -
The EU will.GIN1138 said:
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it?Richard_Nabavi said:
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.Big_G_NorthWales said:...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?
If Trump's people think the EU is like NAFTA or ASEAN they need to be educated.0 -
Ireland must be getting to the point where they are watching events from behind the sofa. This is just nightmare stuff for them. What if Trump offered them a deal that segued with us and potentially conflicted with their EU position? I hope they (we?) can emerge ok from all this - it's a mess for them.GIN1138 said:
Well what if the US just said, to hell with EU law. This is what we're doing take it or leave it!Richard_Nabavi said:
There's not a snowflake's chance in hell of that happening (it would be completely illegal under EU law and directly contrary to the EU treaties). So either the report is garbage, or the Trump people claiming that are half-wits.Big_G_NorthWales said:...
If the report tonight is true that the US will only do individual trade deals with individual EU nations they will be in even more of a panic
I mean, who is going to tell USA they can't do that?0 -
Yes exactly. Richard I applaud your fair mindedness in the post referendum era, a rarity on PB.Richard_Nabavi said:One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU. As she rightly pointed out a few days ago, that means we are not trying to keep some bits of EU membership (no cherry-picking!). Instead, as a non-member of the EU, we will want to have a good relationship with the EU, from the outside.
The EU is a foreign country now like any other0 -
Yes, it's weird. In particular, the financial markets still don't seem to have got it.glw said:
She's been quite consistent about that, and it still hasn't sunk in.Richard_Nabavi said:One thing which Theresa May has got right, and most of her critics have got wrong, comes back to 'Brexit means Brexit'. That is it: we are leaving the EU.
0
This discussion has been closed.