politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2017 opens for Corbyn with top union boss raising doubts about

SeanT said:

Has this been on the news?!

1000 migrants try to storm the Spanish border at Ceuta.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-1-000-migrants-storm-border-spains-ceuta-161029585.html

This is beginning to resemble a war. The early stages thereof. 2017 starts ominously.

nunu said:

SeanT said:

Has this been on the news?!

1000 migrants try to storm the Spanish border at Ceuta.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-1-000-migrants-storm-border-spains-ceuta-161029585.html

This is beginning to resemble a war. The early stages thereof. 2017 starts ominously.

why on earth do the Spanish still have enclaves in North Africa?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ceuta and Melilla are governed as integral parts of Spain, not as "Overseas Territories".

geoffw said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ceuta and Melilla are governed as integral parts of Spain, not as "Overseas Territories".

So the EU has a foothold in Africa. Does Schengen apply there?

SeanT said:

Has this been on the news?!

1000 migrants try to storm the Spanish border at Ceuta.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-1-000-migrants-storm-border-spains-ceuta-161029585.html

This is beginning to resemble a war. The early stages thereof. 2017 starts ominously.

SeanT said:

isam said:

SeanT said:

Has this been on the news?!

1000 migrants try to storm the Spanish border at Ceuta.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-1-000-migrants-storm-border-spains-ceuta-161029585.html

This is beginning to resemble a war. The early stages thereof. 2017 starts ominously.

Have you read Christopher Caldwells book??? It's all in there

I ordered it today on your advice.

SeanT said:

stodge said:

Had the British played a better hand historically, we might have finished up with the Balearics and the Canaries as well as Gibraltar.

We were bollocks at holding on to nice places.

Malta and the Seychelles WANTED to stay British. We should have agreed, and incorporated them into the UK as the French did.

The Seychelles. We lost the Seychelles! - they are literally paradise. Tsk.

SeanT said:

stodge said:

Had the British played a better hand historically, we might have finished up with the Balearics and the Canaries as well as Gibraltar.

We were bollocks at holding on to nice places.

Malta and the Seychelles WANTED to stay British. We should have agreed, and incorporated them into the UK as the French did.

The Seychelles. We lost the Seychelles! - they are literally paradise. Tsk.

RobD said:

nunu said:

SeanT said:

Has this been on the news?!

1000 migrants try to storm the Spanish border at Ceuta.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/more-1-000-migrants-storm-border-spains-ceuta-161029585.html

This is beginning to resemble a war. The early stages thereof. 2017 starts ominously.

why on earth do the Spanish still have enclaves in North Africa?

The Spanish people there want to remain Spanish? Or does geographical proximity override such concerns?

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

On a different topic Tesco have been selling champagne for £8.

Various thoughts:

1) They don't seem concerned about currency movements

2) I remember when champagne was regarded as a posh, expensive drink for the likes of James Hunt - its now only double the price of the cheapest wine or a pint of beer in London

3) Why do supermarkets reduced the price of champagne at the times (Christmas and New Year, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day) when people are likely to buy it in any case ?

That will be some shit champagne. But a fair point nonetheless

I'm always amazed by the glut of smoked salmon post-Xmas. You can buy tons of it for pennies (and I love it, so I indulge)

It's like the supermarkets ALWAYS over-estimate how much they will sell. Which seems odd.

I'm not sure Tesco sell any shit wine these days unless they're still stocking Blue Nun, Le Piat d'Or and other branded rubbish from the 1980s.

I doubt much supermarket champagne is bought for the taste in any case but for more social reasons.

I think champagne is like all wines. You do get noticeably nicer bubbles as you climb the ladder to about £50 a bottle - beyond that snobbery, branding and rarity kick in and the gains in flavour are tiny and incremental, if they exist at all, and the pricing is insane.

I had my first bottle of Cristal (bought by a mate) the other day. £150. Couldn't distinguish it from a vintage Pol Roger costing, say, £60. But I CAN distinguish the £60 bottle from a £10 Sainsburys own brand champers

I'm fortunate - Chilean and Australian at £5 to £7 is my optimum range.

Having a good wine palate is a financial curse.

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

Corbyn will be able to prove himself.

You know where ?

Copeland xD

Well quite. Labour have a 6.5% lead in the seat, they are in opposition to a Conservative government, who are the main challengers in the seat. Sounds like an easy win, so why are Labour 2.6 and the Tories an odds-on 1.9?

nielh said:

Someone described corbyn as the tortoise of British politics. Even if lab get smashed in Copeland he will survive as he is backed by a) the organised far left who are active in the trade unions and many CLPs and b) armchair clictivists happy to support the cause. They don't even care about electability just want lab to be a platform for their views. Plus the 'bunker' mentality has set in with moderates blairites and the media being blamed for every setback.

nielh said:

@sandpit I think it is a bit more nuanced than that and labour party activists will not take defeat in by elections, council elections well. However at present there is no alternative Owen smith was seen as a fraud / blairite placeholder there is no option of a return to normal eg with a Burnham type figure.
Whilst activists will turn against corbyn eventually the clicktivist/ far left will wait the troubles out and back their man. They will eventually turn on each other as they always do. Question is by that point will it be too late.

nielh said:

Someone described corbyn as the tortoise of British politics. Even if lab get smashed in Copeland he will survive as he is backed by a) the organised far left who are active in the trade unions and many CLPs and b) armchair clictivists happy to support the cause. They don't even care about electability just want lab to be a platform for their views. Plus the 'bunker' mentality has set in with moderates blairites and the media being blamed for every setback.

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

On a different topic Tesco have been selling champagne for £8.

Various thoughts:

1) They don't seem concerned about currency movements

2) I remember when champagne was regarded as a posh, expensive drink for the likes of James Hunt - its now only double the price of the cheapest wine or a pint of beer in London

3) Why do supermarkets reduced the price of champagne at the times (Christmas and New Year, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day) when people are likely to buy it in any case ?

1) It was probably hedged by being ordered well in advance.

2) Certainly champers has gone downmarket, along with prosecco, partly through affordability, and partly as adding bubbles makes thin tasteless wine more drinkable.

3) It is a loss leader, people come by to buy their special offers, but Tesco makes their money on the rest of the shop.

NickPalmer said:

For those who read French, this December poll is interesting:

http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/rapport_cevipof_-_eef2017_vague_9_decembre_2016_ipsos_le_monde.pdf

Like most people I'd just seen the Presidential poll results, which are easily summarised: Fillon (conservative) is in a position to win, because the centre-left is divided and Le Pen falls short. Other polls show that Macron (centrist) is actually more popular than Fillon, but it doesn't look as though he'll make the last two. If Bayrou (also centrist) doesn't run the gap is not that enormous, so a long-odds punt on Macron might be worth considering, but Fillon is clearly hot favourite. It doesn't make much difference who the socialists put up.

But there are other findings too. An interesting one is what people expect of someone who wants to be considered French. Almost everyone wants them to respect other people's opinions and (more unexpectedly) to vote in elections (can't imagine that being seen as crucial in Britain). Whether they live in France or embrace French values is not seen as quite so important - still majority support, but the latter is significantly correlated with political sympathy - Front Nationale and conservative supporters care a lot, centre-left supporters aren't quite so bothered.

Blue_rog said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Rog, there was a little a couple of weeks ago. Nothing too exciting, just that fighting was intensifying again after a lull.

Thanks MD, I think there may be a bit of a news blackout over this especially after the blanket coverage of the preamble

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

On a different topic Tesco have been selling champagne for £8.

Various thoughts:

1) They don't seem concerned about currency movements

2) I remember when champagne was regarded as a posh, expensive drink for the likes of James Hunt - its now only double the price of the cheapest wine or a pint of beer in London

3) Why do supermarkets reduced the price of champagne at the times (Christmas and New Year, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day) when people are likely to buy it in any case ?

That will be some shit champagne. But a fair point nonetheless

I'm always amazed by the glut of smoked salmon post-Xmas. You can buy tons of it for pennies (and I love it, so I indulge)

It's like the supermarkets ALWAYS over-estimate how much they will sell. Which seems odd.

I'm not sure Tesco sell any shit wine these days unless they're still stocking Blue Nun, Le Piat d'Or and other branded rubbish from the 1980s.

I doubt much supermarket champagne is bought for the taste in any case but for more social reasons.

I think champagne is like all wines. You do get noticeably nicer bubbles as you climb the ladder to about £50 a bottle - beyond that snobbery, branding and rarity kick in and the gains in flavour are tiny and incremental, if they exist at all, and the pricing is insane.

I had my first bottle of Cristal (bought by a mate) the other day. £150. Couldn't distinguish it from a vintage Pol Roger costing, say, £60. But I CAN distinguish the £60 bottle from a £10 Sainsburys own brand champers

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

On a different topic Tesco have been selling champagne for £8.

Various thoughts:

1) They don't seem concerned about currency movements

2) I remember when champagne was regarded as a posh, expensive drink for the likes of James Hunt - its now only double the price of the cheapest wine or a pint of beer in London

3) Why do supermarkets reduced the price of champagne at the times (Christmas and New Year, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day) when people are likely to buy it in any case ?

That will be some shit champagne. But a fair point nonetheless

I'm always amazed by the glut of smoked salmon post-Xmas. You can buy tons of it for pennies (and I love it, so I indulge)

It's like the supermarkets ALWAYS over-estimate how much they will sell. Which seems odd.

I'm not sure Tesco sell any shit wine these days unless they're still stocking Blue Nun, Le Piat d'Or and other branded rubbish from the 1980s.

I doubt much supermarket champagne is bought for the taste in any case but for more social reasons.

I think champagne is like all wines. You do get noticeably nicer bubbles as you climb the ladder to about £50 a bottle - beyond that snobbery, branding and rarity kick in and the gains in flavour are tiny and incremental, if they exist at all, and the pricing is insane.

I had my first bottle of Cristal (bought by a mate) the other day. £150. Couldn't distinguish it from a vintage Pol Roger costing, say, £60. But I CAN distinguish the £60 bottle from a £10 Sainsburys own brand champers

It has been suggested that the best champagnes at reasonable prices are the supermarkets' own labels because these have been expertly blended in the last few years.

rural_voter said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

SeanT said:

another_richard said:

On a different topic Tesco have been selling champagne for £8.

Various thoughts:

1) They don't seem concerned about currency movements

2) I remember when champagne was regarded as a posh, expensive drink for the likes of James Hunt - its now only double the price of the cheapest wine or a pint of beer in London

3) Why do supermarkets reduced the price of champagne at the times (Christmas and New Year, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day) when people are likely to buy it in any case ?

That will be some shit champagne. But a fair point nonetheless

I'm always amazed by the glut of smoked salmon post-Xmas. You can buy tons of it for pennies (and I love it, so I indulge)

It's like the supermarkets ALWAYS over-estimate how much they will sell. Which seems odd.

I'm not sure Tesco sell any shit wine these days unless they're still stocking Blue Nun, Le Piat d'Or and other branded rubbish from the 1980s.

I doubt much supermarket champagne is bought for the taste in any case but for more social reasons.

I think champagne is like all wines. You do get noticeably nicer bubbles as you climb the ladder to about £50 a bottle - beyond that snobbery, branding and rarity kick in and the gains in flavour are tiny and incremental, if they exist at all, and the pricing is insane.

I had my first bottle of Cristal (bought by a mate) the other day. £150. Couldn't distinguish it from a vintage Pol Roger costing, say, £60. But I CAN distinguish the £60 bottle from a £10 Sainsburys own brand champers

It has been suggested that the best champagnes at reasonable prices are the supermarkets' own labels because these have been expertly blended in the last few years.

Denbies make a more interesting sparkling wine than champagne and it comes out well in many wine tastings.

http://www.visitsurrey.com/things-to-do/denbies-wine-estate-p68293

Roger said:

TFS

Radio 4 Radio 5 BBC1 and 2.

Ishmael_Z said:

"Asked whether the government could guarantee a “really substantial” extra amount of money per week for the NHS by 2020, Johnson said: “Well, yes, in the sense that clearly once we leave, and that isn’t possible until the final moment that of the change in our arrangements, and we take back control of the budgets we contribute to the EU.

“Once that happens, clearly it will be possible for the UK government to spend people’s money on our priorities. And the number one priority for most people is the NHS. It sounds to me Andrew Lansley has got it right.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/25/boris-johnson-nhs-extra-funds-after-brexit-andrew-marr-lansley

Not an issue till winter 20-21, anyway.

I do slightly wonder why "the number one priority for most people is the NHS", though. Except when I am ill I never really think about it. Most people are not ill most of the time, and when not ill they don't seem to worry much about prospective medical issues - that is, many of them are happy to drink and get fat and so on. Other nations don't seem to worry much about their equivalent either, except in the States where they genuinely have got something to beef about. Is the NHS actually just a random political football which everyone has agreed to kick?

TwistedFireStopper said:

It might just be the company I keep, but I recall hardly anyone really getting hung up on the "350million for the NHS" quote in the conversations I've had with friends, relatives, colleagues or random strangers about the referendum.