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Interesting remarks from McCluskey. The dreaded vote of confidence in Corbyns leadership. Why make the remarks now? https://t.co/wBfpwXDUh1
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Barney averaged 110 and didn't know what the hell hit him!
Was it really four years ago that this happened?
https://youtube.com/watch?v=pGNZ3GqYrVY
http://lainfo.es/fr/2014/05/28/nouvelle-vague-dimmigrants-sautant-la-cloture-de-melilla/
In Nigeria alone there are about 80 million under 14s.
How many of them might decide that Europe is their promised land.
The world's most backward countries seem capable of producing nothing but children:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_fertility_rate
Various thoughts:
1) They don't seem concerned about currency movements
2) I remember when champagne was regarded as a posh, expensive drink for the likes of James Hunt - its now only double the price of the cheapest wine or a pint of beer in London
3) Why do supermarkets reduced the price of champagne at the times (Christmas and New Year, Valentine's Day, Mother's Day) when people are likely to buy it in any case ?
Don't forget Tangier!
I doubt much supermarket champagne is bought for the taste in any case but for more social reasons.
Having a good wine palate is a financial curse.
As with much wine, the joy is in trying the minor producers and finding the hidden gems.
A vast array of minor Champagne producers are now importing to the UK. Try them, look at the tasting notes on line.
Democrats' top targets are Tillrson, De Vos, Sessions and Mulvaney (who!?)
Not sure how far this is posturing but I think we will see some pretty nasty fights over this.
You know where ?
Copeland xD
Tories -11.19
Labour +194.84
Green -132.78
Lib Dem -351.44
UKIP -478.94
is my view at the moment anyway.
The supporters don't care about winning the election, they seem to be happy to lose another 100 seats next time out as long as the manifesto reads exactly as they wish it to. Even when Corbyn eventually chooses to go, he will be replaced by another handpicked relic from the 1970s.
Whilst activists will turn against corbyn eventually the clicktivist/ far left will wait the troubles out and back their man. They will eventually turn on each other as they always do. Question is by that point will it be too late.
2) Certainly champers has gone downmarket, along with prosecco, partly through affordability, and partly as adding bubbles makes thin tasteless wine more drinkable.
3) It is a loss leader, people come by to buy their special offers, but Tesco makes their money on the rest of the shop.
It would be good to see a respectable centre-left leader (Kier Starmer springs to mind, although @Charles of this parish is vehemently opposed to him for personal experience reasons he can't write down, so maybe he has a skeleton or two in the closet), but that's not going to happen until the membership realise that winning elections is how their policy gets implemented.
Meanwhile the government are not being opposed and held to account during a period of significant change, and the working classes don't have a natural party to support.
And to think this all started with Eric Joyce and the Falkirk by-election.
Labour is safely in opposition so does not need to have a coherent position to counter the incoherent and undeliverable government Brexit agenda. It can reinvent itself. Jezza has added substantially to the membership, and a percentage of these new activists will become frustrated by opposition, so becoming self moderating.
Jezza does seem to genuinely keep hands off local parties, and while this does mean in some seats that we will see Momentum types being "Looney Left", in other parts we will see a regeneration of grass roots local candidates for local people. Jezza is not one to parachute in, and of all tbe byelections so far there has been no interference with local parties picking local candidates. No SPADS or Momentum types chosen in either winnable or unwinnable seats.
It will not be a quick regeneration, but it will be the end of New Labour, and quite likely to give Mays tired and fratricidal government aclose battle. Probably more like 92 than 97, but setting up for a serious return to government.
I am on NoC for post the next election. Red Brexit will be popular.
May could face the most foreseeable uncertainty of any PM that I can remember. Not sure how the EU will go, not sure who she'll face in the next election, and thanks to the PCP's wolfish tendencies, can't even be sure she'll make it that far.
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/rapport_cevipof_-_eef2017_vague_9_decembre_2016_ipsos_le_monde.pdf
Like most people I'd just seen the Presidential poll results, which are easily summarised: Fillon (conservative) is in a position to win, because the centre-left is divided and Le Pen falls short. Other polls show that Macron (centrist) is actually more popular than Fillon, but it doesn't look as though he'll make the last two. If Bayrou (also centrist) doesn't run the gap is not that enormous, so a long-odds punt on Macron might be worth considering, but Fillon is clearly hot favourite. It doesn't make much difference who the socialists put up.
But there are other findings too. An interesting one is what people expect of someone who wants to be considered French. Almost everyone wants them to respect other people's opinions and (more unexpectedly) to vote in elections (can't imagine that being seen as crucial in Britain). Whether they live in France or embrace French values is not seen as quite so important - still majority support, but the latter is significantly correlated with political sympathy - Front Nationale and conservative supporters care a lot, centre-left supporters aren't quite so bothered.
Labour thinkers are ahead of my own party, where Farron is carving out the continuity Remain vote. There certainly are Labour figures doing the same, but also a distinct shift to a Red Brexit philosophy of immigration control, and protectionism of both industries and workers rights. It is a move that will prove popular, and one that Jezza can claim to have supported all along.
I would like to see the LDs take a more realistic line too, but something like feather-mattress Brexit so soft that it is Brexit in name only. In practice this is undeliverable, but for an opposition that is not a problem.
May having to oppose both feather soft Yellow Brexit and Red in tooth and claw Brexit, while having to deliver well beyond her fairly modest skill set will set up a fairly competitive 2020 election. She is at risk from cut and run prior to that too, as a 2017-9 GE could only occur via a massive internal feud in her own party.
May and the Tories are nowhere near as secure as they first appear.
Does anyone know what's happening in Mosul? I can't seem to find any Western based news reports more recent than the end of October
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RS4FDX_uYrk
He has said it. What confuses people I think is Corbyn wants to be PM on his own terms and to an unusual extent does not want to sacrifice his principles.
There is probably very little someone like Andy Burnham wouldn't do to become PM. Corbyn won't even lie and says he believes in nuclear weapons to win.
Catholicism and Monarchism? De Gaulle or Vichy? Bourbonism or Jacobite? Zola or Sartre or Proust?
While we have to decide who is more British. Wellington or William Cobbett? Ned Ludd or IK Brunel? HM or Rabbi Lionel Blue? Maggie Thatcher or Tony Benn?
All nationalities are multistranded, as much in France as here. Defining these values is largely a matter of fencing them in.
http://www.visitsurrey.com/things-to-do/denbies-wine-estate-p68293
If Article 50 moves centre stage at the same moment the NHS goes into meltdown this could be Corbyn's big chance.
May and her government now own the '£350,000,000' whether they like it or not and though Corbyn's famous for never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity (Eban) this could be too big an open goal to miss.
Of course not. But as soon as she said 'Brexit Means Brexit' she not only bought into the concept but she also took ownership of all their previous marketing. That's how it works. She now owns the Brexit brand of which £350,000,000 for the NHS is an integral part.
Radio 4 Radio 5 BBC1 and 2.
"Nonsense Roger. The Conservative Party manifesto makes no mention of £350 million a week, That was Farage and other far right brexiters picking numbers out of the air."
I think we're due a vsitation from Scott P!
Firstly, the Corbynites I have spoken to say that they believe that Jezza can win a GE.
Secondly, Corbyn will step down if the PLP guarantee that his preferred candidate is on the ballot. Otherwise I would expect him to hold out to 2020 however bad the polls.
On the off-topic, beer is superior to wine, fizzy or otherwise. Also part of our cultural heritage.
“Once that happens, clearly it will be possible for the UK government to spend people’s money on our priorities. And the number one priority for most people is the NHS. It sounds to me Andrew Lansley has got it right.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/25/boris-johnson-nhs-extra-funds-after-brexit-andrew-marr-lansley
Not an issue till winter 20-21, anyway.
I do slightly wonder why "the number one priority for most people is the NHS", though. Except when I am ill I never really think about it. Most people are not ill most of the time, and when not ill they don't seem to worry much about prospective medical issues - that is, many of them are happy to drink and get fat and so on. Other nations don't seem to worry much about their equivalent either, except in the States where they genuinely have got something to beef about. Is the NHS actually just a random political football which everyone has agreed to kick?
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/815857908428763136
Latest YouGov survey for The Times. Tables not yet up on YouGov website when I last checked, but essential details as follows:
* Declining economic confidence
* Tory numbers for economic competence have declined - but so have Labour's (more DKs, no other party benefiting)
* More than half of 2015 Labour voters say Corbyn doing a bad job
* Support for an early election is rising
Report: http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8bed19a2-d06c-11e6-962c-fe439ed038d1
In any case what others call out as inaction and evading responsibility is political bullshit. If you see a big hole in front of you its best to walk round it rather than fall straight into it (as Maggie did with the miners first time round).
May is getting it in the neck because Labour isn't providing an opposition. Simples.
I think it is entirely possible Bayrou does not stand and backs Macron. In that case, he could be on the low 20s, running Le Pen very close. If she underperforms, as happened in both sets on local elections in France in 2015, then it's possible (albeit not likely) that she isn't even in the final two.
It cut through not just because older WWC are parrticularly reliant on the NHS, but also as a form of social conservatism. This is not the USA, and social conservatism here is nostalgia for the post war welfare state, from council housing to grammar schools, but the NHS centrestage.
Hope that your family are being well treated by my LRI colleagues.
Happy New Year!