politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » POLL ALERT: Polling Matters / Opinium: Voters back ‘soft Brexit’ but reject second referendum – even if the economy worsens
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Many thanks to Keiran and Opinium for this.0
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Second like Remain in the referendum!0
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Fourth, like Labour...0
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Unanimous standing ovations and 'For he's a jolly good fellow' from PB I'm sure.
https://twitter.com/nickdearden75/status/8101174257191157770 -
Am not sure your questions work.
Soft Brexit = making contributions but more money for schools'n'hospitals
Hard Brexit = no contributions but less mobey for s'n'h
I think you may have introduced some bias there0 -
I'm always wary of these hypothetical "If X happens, what would you think?" polls. If the economy were to worsen, people may not think what they believe/claim they would think. For the same reason, I don't think there's much value in "if X were to become party leader, how would you vote in a general election?" questions other than as a way of pumping your preferred candidate (or dissing your opponent).
It's an interesting poll in that it suggests there is enough appetite for Euroref2 for the Lib Dems to make some gains out of it, without enough for it to be a winning proposition.
As an aside: how many of the more ardent Remainers want to stay in without a second referendum? Lots of them don't like referenda as a decision-making process and view it as axiomatic, or at least logical, that a parliament acting in the best interests of its electors would, or at least should, keep the UK in the EU "once the stark facts of Brexit become clear".0 -
Wow, thank you very much. This is really interesting stuff.0
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I think isam's idea - of 50 of a 650 seat parliament- being awarded proportionally has a lot of merit. It would only marginally increase the likelihood of a hung parliament, and it avoids truly egregious situations, where a party might get 10% of the popular vote, and no representation at all.0
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PB grammar Nazis know how to spell fascism.0
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That sounds like a closed list option.rcs1000 said:I think isam's idea - of 50 of a 650 seat parliament- being awarded proportionally has a lot of merit. It would only marginally increase the likelihood of a hung parliament, and it avoids truly egregious situations, where a party might get 10% of the popular vote, and no representation at all.
Closed lists are the spawn of Satan.0 -
I voted remain and would be happy with soft Brexit but that poll is crapismo of the first order. All of the negativity at the end of the hard Brexit paragraph makes it astonishing that so many still opted for it. Epic fail Mr Pedley - and no surprises there.Charles said:Am not sure your questions work.
Soft Brexit = making contributions but more money for schools'n'hospitals
Hard Brexit = no contributions but less mobey for s'n'h
I think you may have introduced some bias there0 -
Those two 'hard' and 'soft' Brexits are extremes in their own right.
1. The soft Brexit suggested seems to involve remaining a part of the Customs Union. That would be an incredibly soft Brexit, barely even a Brexit at all.
2. The hard Brexit seems to take an extreme example where the world starts falling apart.
Even in the most likely hard Brexit scenarios, we would likely remain members of some EU administered bodies (like Erasmus). Even in the softest of Brexit scenarios we would likely regain control of trade relationships with third parties.0 -
I'll also second @Charles. Also @rcs who has slightly trumped my comment and said it more succinctly than me.
People's preferences for Soft/Hard Brexit may depend very much on their opinions of the likely economic consequences. There are some "hard" Leavers who believe that the UK will do better economically if it breaks more of its residual ties with the EU. Indeed, if this were not the case and "hard Leave" was purely about defending an abstract political position on sovereignty or a hardline view of immigration, then there'd be far fewer people on that end of the spectrum.
The question here can only be seen as people supporting Soft Brexit, in the sense that it states that Soft Brexit is the economically superior option. If you want to see what people really think, then you have to allow for the fact that the public disagree (whether you agree with their analysis or not) over whether Soft or Hard Brexit is more economically beneficial.
[For instance, it isn't beyond the pale of reason to think that cutting more ties with the EU, particularly the customs union, might allow the UK to focus on global trade deals in its own best interest. Nor to suggest that limiting migration to high-skilled work or particular shortage areas, might push the British economy into higher-value areas, pull us out of some of the economic "races to the bottom", and hence increase GDP per capita even if it reduces total GDP. The "per capita" bit matters more to living standards, including school'n'hospitals. This is, of course, an economic analysis that many leading economists utterly disagree with. But you can find a few, perfectly well-qualified economists who do have this line of thought and presumably a decent proportion of Leavers as a whole - clearly not all Leave voters believed they were voting for economic suicide, and many were keen to escape the EU to as large an extent as possible! So I don't think it's fair for an opinion poll to bake in a particular line on the possible economic consequences.]0 -
" and says he does not know if his relationship with Sarah Silverman will survive.Theuniondivvie said:Unanimous standing ovations and 'For he's a jolly good fellow' from PB I'm sure.
https://twitter.com/nickdearden75/status/810117425719115777
Sheen will leave Silverman, his partner of two years, and family in Los Angeles and move to Port Talbot in south Wales to combat the wave of “demagogic, fascistic” politics he believes has engulfed the West in the past decade."
No idea where his politics lie (left/right/centre) but his approach to his family suggests he would have a lot in common with Mr Corbyn.
But I had no idea that matters in Wales were so bad.
(edited for grammar)0 -
I do appreciate the line "We are not suggesting that Britain’s choice – insofar as it has one – is as binary as described above. Indeed, many Brexiteers will dispute the idea that there is an economic trade-off with a ‘hard Brexit’ at all." I just don't feel satisfied about the "However, we still feel that this is a useful exercise" - at the very least it's a false dichotomy, at worse it strikes me as getting uncomfortably close to push-polling territory.0
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SOFT BREXIT 41
FAKE NEWS BELIEVERS 350 -
Maybe some doubt about the POTUS elect tho'..dr_spyn said:PB grammar Nazis know how to spell fascism.
Unpresidential spelling.
https://twitter.com/lulu_lemew/status/8101012620249333760 -
Maybe, but it's in the correct direction - exaggerating risks vs benefits, and most people still prefer to take the risk.Charles said:Am not sure your questions work.
Soft Brexit = making contributions but more money for schools'n'hospitals
Hard Brexit = no contributions but less mobey for s'n'h
I think you may have introduced some bias there
No doubt that is part of Mr Pedley's shock.0 -
Erm. Most people choose soft Brexit in the poll.AnneJGP said:
Maybe, but it's in the correct direction - exaggerating risks vs benefits, and most people still prefer to take the risk.Charles said:Am not sure your questions work.
Soft Brexit = making contributions but more money for schools'n'hospitals
Hard Brexit = no contributions but less mobey for s'n'h
I think you may have introduced some bias there
No doubt that is part of Mr Pedley's shock.0 -
@MBE
I think it's best to think of Brexit as a journey, and not as a switch which is suddenly thrown.
If - two years after Article 50 were triggered - we were suddenly, and unexpectedly, to drop to WTO terms with the EU (which would simultaneously mean that we dropped out of the 31 FTAs that the EU has with other countries), that would likely have serious short term consequences for the UK economy.
On the other hand, if after two years we were to go to a five year transitional deal, where we made some contributions, regained control of external trade, retained only the right of EU nationals to work in the UK, and kept passporting rights, then there would likely be negligible near term impacts on the UK. This would give us, and the EU, time to adjust and would allow us to negotiate a longer-term (more CETA-like) deal with the EU, and to forge new relationships with other countries. This is a path to hard Brexit, which would likely allow a fairly smooth adjustment process for both the UK and the EU.0 -
If he thinks he can singlehandedly save the steel industry in Port Talbot he is nuts, unless he has the money to buy the steel works and keep it running for the next 20 years at least.AnneJGP said:
" and says he does not know if his relationship with Sarah Silverman will survive.Theuniondivvie said:Unanimous standing ovations and 'For he's a jolly good fellow' from PB I'm sure.
https://twitter.com/nickdearden75/status/810117425719115777
Sheen will leave Silverman, his partner of two years, and family in Los Angeles and move to Port Talbot in south Wales to combat the wave of “demagogic, fascistic” politics he believes has engulfed the West in the past decade."
No idea where his politics lie (left/right/centre) but his approach to his family suggests he would have a lot in common with Mr Corbyn.
But I had no idea that matters in Wales were so bad.
(edited for grammar)0 -
Another leftie luvvie in leave voting Wales.AnneJGP said:
" and says he does not know if his relationship with Sarah Silverman will survive.Theuniondivvie said:Unanimous standing ovations and 'For he's a jolly good fellow' from PB I'm sure.
https://twitter.com/nickdearden75/status/810117425719115777
Sheen will leave Silverman, his partner of two years, and family in Los Angeles and move to Port Talbot in south Wales to combat the wave of “demagogic, fascistic” politics he believes has engulfed the West in the past decade."
No idea where his politics lie (left/right/centre) but his approach to his family suggests he would have a lot in common with Mr Corbyn.
But I had no idea that matters in Wales were so bad.
(edited for grammar)
Does anyone listen to these people anymore as they insult ordinary voters
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This is a fine piece that speaks to everyone with an iPhone lately, but also highlights the stall in the tech industry in the last 10 years:
https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/8101000073911377920 -
Sorry, I meant the 2nd table - even if economy worsens, 52% say No further referendum.Freggles said:
Erm. Most people choose soft Brexit in the poll.AnneJGP said:
Maybe, but it's in the correct direction - exaggerating risks vs benefits, and most people still prefer to take the risk.Charles said:Am not sure your questions work.
Soft Brexit = making contributions but more money for schools'n'hospitals
Hard Brexit = no contributions but less mobey for s'n'h
I think you may have introduced some bias there
No doubt that is part of Mr Pedley's shock.0 -
Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.0
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Cheers for this Mr Pedley.
You’re certainly expanding the reach of Polling Matters with this Opinium poll commission.
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Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
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@JohnRentoul: / @britainelects
What people voted for: 35%.
Fantasy land of unicorns, sovereignty and no bad things at all: 41%0 -
Is he going to Port Talbot to leave Silverman or is Silverman leaving him because he is nuts about going to Port Talbot ?rcs1000 said:@Big_G
Sarah Silverman is about to become single. To me, that's the real news.
I have heard of desperate efforts to get out of a relationship but the Port Talbot excuse is a first.0 -
I love those two questions! Talk about push polling.0
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It wouldn't need to be a closed list at all, the candidates who got most votes but no seat would be the MP'sTheScreamingEagles said:
That sounds like a closed list option.rcs1000 said:I think isam's idea - of 50 of a 650 seat parliament- being awarded proportionally has a lot of merit. It would only marginally increase the likelihood of a hung parliament, and it avoids truly egregious situations, where a party might get 10% of the popular vote, and no representation at all.
Closed lists are the spawn of Satan.0 -
Like those people who said the single currency was doomed because of a lack of labour mobility and now think the EU is doomed because of free movement.Scott_P said:
Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
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I bet 90% of the public just wish the government and the EU would get on with this. It's getting increasingly tiresome.0
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Trump 'unpresidented' - if only.0
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The delusions of the luvvies never fail to deliver.Theuniondivvie said:Unanimous standing ovations and 'For he's a jolly good fellow' from PB I'm sure.
https://twitter.com/nickdearden75/status/8101174257191157770 -
Other than the complete nonsense of the soft/hard brexit question, what is interesting is this backs up other polling that only at most a third want a second referendum and no referendum wins by even greater margins in all ages 45+.0
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What we don't know is how the "no 2nd referendum" split.brokenwheel said:at most a third want a second referendum and no referendum wins by even greater margins in all ages 45+.
How many "just get on with it" and how many "we might lose next time" ?0 -
So when do we get the poll where the questions on hard and soft brexit are loaded in favour of hard brexit ?
Hard Brexit
The UK leaves all EU institutions, gaining full control over immigration, trade and legal system, and making no contributions to the EU budget. As a result criminals, layabouts and unskilled workers are able to be stopped from migrating to UK and the country has more money to invest in public services like housing, schools and hospitals
Soft Brexit
The UK remains in some EU institutions and continues to make some contributions to the EU budget and allows EU nationals the right to live and work in the UK. As a result criminals, layabouts and unskilled workers are able to migrate to the UK and the country has less money to invest in public services like housing, schools and hospitals.
Poll that one if you dare Pedley.
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While I am not a hard Brexiteer the crisis in the EU with collapsing euro-dollar rate, unresolved and unresolvable immigation, Greece, Italy, France, Netherlands, and Germany elections/referendums in 2017, the threat from Russia, and the uncertain relationship with Nato and the USA would lead to the conclusion that acrimony within the EU will increase considerably.williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
Add into the mix the very obvious splits that will result as we serve A50 and individual nation states and their business communities, staring at a big increases in unemployment in the states in the event of tariffs, you see the recipe for a serious rupture between the nation states, the commission and the Parliament.
I have no doubt that we are in a strong position to conclude a successful divorce not least because of the size of our economy and our military and security advantages which the EU will be unable to do without.
As we move into Christmas and 2017 I do believe those who voted remain need to accept we are leaving and make a positive contribution to the process rather than continually try to reverse the process, which simply will not happen0 -
Afternoon all
Well, you can cram Christmas full of walnuts or any other combination of nuts and dried fruit you like. Fed up with it already - the cards, gifts and the tedious office do. I wish I could escape and become a trainee hermit but Mrs Stodge won't let me.
On topic, yes, well. I think most people hear "second referendum" and assume it will be a re-run of the first which no one is advocating. The idea the people might get a say on the post-EU relationship might seem to some as strange as the condemned man having the choice between being shot, hanged or put in a sack and quartered in Trafalgar Square but it's that important and too important to be part of the warp and weft of a GE campaign.
As the ultimate anomaly - a hard Brexit LD - I'm fascinated by the meal chef Theresa and the Three Sous are going to prepare. I suspect it might look good but be fairly indigestible with some very odd ingredients.
Time will tell...
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That first question is pretty loaded, so it's amazing that the hard Brexit response is so high. With a more neutral question, I think the balance between 'soft' and 'hard' would be pretty even.0
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You assume there is such a split, the question specifically says if the economy significantly worsens.Scott_P said:
What we don't know is how the "no 2nd referendum" split.brokenwheel said:at most a third want a second referendum and no referendum wins by even greater margins in all ages 45+.
How many "just get on with it" and how many "we might lose next time" ?0 -
@ TSE "That sounds like a closed list option."
Need it be, though? Couldn't the top up go to the FPTP candidates from the topped up party who failed to get elected but who got either the highest number of votes or the highest percentage of the constituency vote in the GE race, rather than having a separate, party-brokered list?0 -
Didn't the Jenkins commission propose something along those lines all those years ago? A major objection united William Hague and Dennis Skinner: you'd have a subset of second-tier MPs who no one one would take remotely seriously.TheScreamingEagles said:
That sounds like a closed list option.rcs1000 said:I think isam's idea - of 50 of a 650 seat parliament- being awarded proportionally has a lot of merit. It would only marginally increase the likelihood of a hung parliament, and it avoids truly egregious situations, where a party might get 10% of the popular vote, and no representation at all.
Closed lists are the spawn of Satan.0 -
That's a great typo from the Donald.Theuniondivvie said:
Maybe some doubt about the POTUS elect tho'..dr_spyn said:PB grammar Nazis know how to spell fascism.
Unpresidential spelling.
https://twitter.com/lulu_lemew/status/810101262024933376
I recall stories of Nixon making a similar mistake during the Watergate scandal - he was upset at the idea of someone trying to bring him down and meant to say it was a 'disgraceful precedent'.0 -
Whatever the wishes/views of the UK public and its government, the shade of Brexit will depend on whether the EU's remaining members can agree a common position, which will be determined primary by political (not economic) considerations. Given the degree of differing views within this heterogeneous group, and the desire of some Europeans to punish the UK for its insolent decision to leave the EU, the UK government and companies that do business with the EU27 should be assuming that the default position is a Hard Brexit.0
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Most probably goes down well at their dinner parties. To everyone else he comes across as a deluded idiot.felix said:
The delusions of the luvvies never fail to deliver.Theuniondivvie said:Unanimous standing ovations and 'For he's a jolly good fellow' from PB I'm sure.
https://twitter.com/nickdearden75/status/8101174257191157770 -
That sounds like Sir Humphrey talking about National Service!another_richard said:So when do we get the poll where the questions on hard and soft brexit are loaded in favour of hard brexit ?
Hard Brexit
The UK leaves all EU institutions, gaining full control over immigration, trade and legal system, and making no contributions to the EU budget. As a result criminals, layabouts and unskilled workers are able to be stopped from migrating to UK and the country has more money to invest in public services like housing, schools and hospitals
Soft Brexit
The UK remains in some EU institutions and continues to make some contributions to the EU budget and allows EU nationals the right to live and work in the UK. As a result criminals, layabouts and unskilled workers are able to migrate to the UK and the country has less money to invest in public services like housing, schools and hospitals.
Poll that one if you dare Pedley.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA0 -
Good afternoon, everybody.
I know 2016's been a bit hectic, but I've only been gone a few hours. Has the Fourth Reich really been founded in Wales?0 -
Only one word is needed to describe Barry Sheen's move:
Hiraeth.0 -
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@Theuniondivvie Posts: 7,031
2:24PM
dr_spyn said:
PB grammar Nazis know how to spell fascism.
Maybe some doubt about the POTUS elect tho'..
Unpresidential spelling.
That is a better and more topical riposte. +1 in absence of like button.0 -
"However, as a result, the EU offers an unfavourable trade deal to the EU meaning the economy suffers, unemployment increases and the economy has less money to invest in public services....." Had the Remain campaign itself been the author of that question, I fail to see how it (and the corresponding alternative option) could have been any more loaded.
Here's an alternative wording, based on a different reading of the economic situation: "As a result, barriers to trade emerge in the short term between the UK and EU, causing a significant reduction in net imports to the UK, an improvement in the UK's balance of payments and a resurgence in UK based manufacturing, meaning the UK economy prospers and unemployment falls..... In the longer term, after the loss of EU exports to the UK prompts a change of direction, the EU reaches a trade deal with the UK largely on the UK's terms."0 -
'Also, with the boundary changes coming, there's already going to a bun fight among the existing Labour MPs for the safer new seats. '
Too many chickens are being counted there!0 -
We had a first taste of hard brexit yesterday, when Mrs. May was arrogantly, rudely and childishly ignored by other EU heads of government - is this really the way they intend to behave towards the UK. If so, the sooner we're out the better.
Why don't the said leaders spend just a few minutes trying to work out the reasons why we voted why we did. Doesn't it occur to them that most fair-minded Brits must have very serious misgivings about the way the EU is run and the direction in which it is relentlessly heading?0 -
Whist I agree with the sentiment: ("hiraeth" is one of the most useful words I know, and it's annoying that English hasn't got an equivalent: you have to go to Germany for "heimat", goddammit), I must point out that it's Michael Sheen, not Barrydaodao said:Only one word is needed to describe Barry Sheen's move:
Hiraeth.
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What would you like me to do? In practical terms, how can I, the CEO of a small specialist consultancy, make a positive contribution to the process of leaving the EU?Big_G_NorthWales said:
While I am not a hard Brexiteer the crisis in the EU with collapsing euro-dollar rate, unresolved and unresolvable immigation, Greece, Italy, France, Netherlands, and Germany elections/referendums in 2017, the threat from Russia, and the uncertain relationship with Nato and the USA would lead to the conclusion that acrimony within the EU will increase considerably.williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
Add into the mix the very obvious splits that will result as we serve A50 and individual nation states and their business communities, staring at a big increases in unemployment in the states in the event of tariffs, you see the recipe for a serious rupture between the nation states, the commission and the Parliament.
I have no doubt that we are in a strong position to conclude a successful divorce not least because of the size of our economy and our military and security advantages which the EU will be unable to do without.
As we move into Christmas and 2017 I do believe those who voted remain need to accept we are leaving and make a positive contribution to the process rather than continually try to reverse the process, which simply will not happen
I'm buggered if I know.0 -
We are seeing this in many different places. Brexit wins, those with the megaphones declare it was racist ignorant stupid Little Englanders. Trump wins it was racist ignorant stupid white supremacists.peter_from_putney said:We had a first taste of hard brexit yesterday, when Mrs. May was arrogantly, rudely and childishly ignored by other EU heads of government - is this really the way they intend to behave towards the UK. If so, the sooner we're out the better.
Why don't the said leaders spend just a few minutes trying to work out the reasons why we voted why we did. Doesn't it occur to them that most fair-minded Brits must have very serious misgivings about the way the EU is run and the direction in which it is relentlessly heading?
It is much easier to blame it on this, Fake News, the Russians, than to take a hard look at the situation and work out why people are rejecting the ruling elite preferred direction of travel. The EU leaders are exactly the same, they know best, the people are stupid, we need another vote because the idiots got it wrong, etc etc etc.0 -
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There is no "fair" voting system. FPTP, AV, MMP, STV, TVS, RAC, GBK are all unfair in some way. I start from the premise every vote should be counted and every vote should count. Presumably we can all sign up to the first part but it's the second where the trouble starts.Stark_Dawning said:
Didn't the Jenkins commission propose something along those lines all those years ago? A major objection united William Hague and Dennis Skinner: you'd have a subset of second-tier MPs who no one one would take remotely seriously.TheScreamingEagles said:
That sounds like a closed list option.rcs1000 said:I think isam's idea - of 50 of a 650 seat parliament- being awarded proportionally has a lot of merit. It would only marginally increase the likelihood of a hung parliament, and it avoids truly egregious situations, where a party might get 10% of the popular vote, and no representation at all.
Closed lists are the spawn of Satan.
In a geographically based system of constituencies some votes will matter a lot more than some others. Now I struggle with the notion democracy should be a product of geography and in order for your vote to "count" you have to live in an area of like minded people. This perpetuates the echo chamber as more seats become "safe" for one side or the other.
I don't have an answer - a wholly proportional system would break the constituency link which is anathema to many. Systems whereby numbers of MPs are elected off a list means senior party members would no longer be constituency MPs - Theresa May would be No.1 on the Conservative list as an example to ensure her election. It's far from ideal.
All I have is the notion of two votes - a constituency vote and a party vote.
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You're so right. Out of a group of 28 countries, 1 is right and the other 27 are wrong. Let's list them, shall we?peter_from_putney said:We had a first taste of hard brexit yesterday, when Mrs. May was arrogantly, rudely and childishly ignored by other EU heads of government.
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden.
All of them are childish, arrogant and rude, without exception, and only the UK is virtuous. Silly of me not to see it instantly.
Of course it's the way they intend to behave, for pity's sake! Why would you think they would act differently? I've been saying this for years, including before the vote. The LEAVEr delusion that the UK could dictate its own terms and cherrypick what it wanted was simply that: a delusion. Even the article above is based on the assumption that we can decide on the deal, whether in detail or timescale. I have a horrible feeling that one of my best lines on this board ("when they've worked out what the deal is, they'll tell us") will turn out to be the plain unvarnished truth.peter_from_putney said:is this really the way they intend to behave towards the UK. If so, the sooner we're out the better.
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Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
Not to mention, Mr. Putney referred to heads of government, not nations or electorates.0 -
That came to my mind as well.Sandpit said:
That sounds like Sir Humphrey talking about National Service!another_richard said:So when do we get the poll where the questions on hard and soft brexit are loaded in favour of hard brexit ?
Hard Brexit
The UK leaves all EU institutions, gaining full control over immigration, trade and legal system, and making no contributions to the EU budget. As a result criminals, layabouts and unskilled workers are able to be stopped from migrating to UK and the country has more money to invest in public services like housing, schools and hospitals
Soft Brexit
The UK remains in some EU institutions and continues to make some contributions to the EU budget and allows EU nationals the right to live and work in the UK. As a result criminals, layabouts and unskilled workers are able to migrate to the UK and the country has less money to invest in public services like housing, schools and hospitals.
Poll that one if you dare Pedley.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
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A referendum on leaving, and they're treating us as if we are leaving.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
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I ascribe to both those positions.williamglenn said:
Like those people who said the single currency was doomed because of a lack of labour mobility and now think the EU is doomed because of free movement.Scott_P said:
Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
The only way to resolve it is to create a single federal state with massive fiscal transfers and free movement of people.
Good luck to them but I don't want the UK to be part of it.
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Why, when I type a space after "UK" in my phone does it come up with "Belgium" as an autoprompt?
What is the Universe trying to tell me?0 -
On the contrary, it's a very fair comparison: we were talking about a group of heads of governments. By convention, we refer to them by their country's name instead of the individual's name (unless the heads of state are also present). Incidentally, this rule also applies to ship's captains: so "Enterprise" instead of "James Kirk", or "Zumwalt" instead of... "James Kirk"[1]. There's a word for this but I forget it (synechdoche? metonymy?)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
Not to mention, Mr. Putney referred to heads of government, not nations or electorates.
[1] Yes, the real-life captain of the USS Zumwalt is called James Kirk. It worries me that I know this.
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daodao said:
Whatever the wishes/views of the UK public and its government, the shade of Brexit will depend on whether the EU's remaining members can agree a common position, which will be determined primary by political (not economic) considerations. Given the degree of differing views within this heterogeneous group, and the desire of some Europeans to punish the UK for its insolent decision to leave the EU, the UK government and companies that do business with the EU27 should be assuming that the default position is a Hard Brexit.
Shocking isn't it. We say we are leaving, and now they are not interested in our views anymore. Who would have thought?williamglenn said:
A referendum on leaving, and they're treating us as if we are leaving.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
@viewcode is right. When the EU 27 have decided what the deal is, they will let us know. We can then decide to take it or leave it.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, yet they're still interested in our membership fees.0
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I'm guessing mot of the moment hygge is similar.viewcode said:
Whist I agree with the sentiment: ("hiraeth" is one of the most useful words I know, and it's annoying that English hasn't got an equivalent: you have to go to Germany for "heimat", goddammit), I must point out that it's Michael Sheen, not Barrydaodao said:Only one word is needed to describe Barry Sheen's move:
Hiraeth.0 -
There can be no doubt that this will be a dialogue of the deaf, and the default is Hard Brexit.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, yet they're still interested in our membership fees.
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BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM
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Zumwalt's the one with guns but no bullets right?viewcode said:
On the contrary, it's a very fair comparison: we were talking about a group of heads of governments. By convention, we refer to them by their country's name instead of the individual's name (unless the heads of state are also present). Incidentally, this rule also applies to ship's captains: so "Enterprise" instead of "James Kirk", or "Zumwalt" instead of... "James Kirk"[1]. There's a word for this but I forget it (synechdoche? metonymy?)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
Not to mention, Mr. Putney referred to heads of government, not nations or electorates.
[1] Yes, the real-life captain of the USS Zumwalt is called James Kirk. It worries me that I know this.0 -
There are plenty of people (like me) who are appalled by the referendum result but who think rerunning it is futile because (1) you'd get the same result or (2) we no longer have the option of staying in the EU or (3) there can be no change of course until Brexit is tested to destruction. So I don't find attitudes to a second referendum very surprising. All the king's horses and all the king's men couldn't put Humpty together again.
It doesn't mean that Brexit is getting any more popular.0 -
The campaign to leave would have continued, but we wouldn't be trying to overturn the referendum decision. Remain is now rejoin, if remain campaigners want to campaign to rejoin the EU that is up to them, campaigning to overturn a democratic vote is disgusting. I guess the issue is that the smartest remainers know that rejoining will be supported by less than 20% of the public and our future in the EU is dead once we've served A50 and there will br no going back so frustrating that process and trying to overturn the referendum result is the only way we could ever stay in the EU now, regardless of how undemocratic the means. The EU has become an article of faith for some of your lot as much as leaving was for so many of mine before the referendum. You decry leavers as swivel eyed but you are no different by campaigning to overturn the result.Yorkcity said:BigG why should those who believe in remain shut up.I am dam sure that if the leavers had lost they would not have given up.That is democratic
They would have fought on just like the SNP will do as attitudes and opinions change over time.Just because you are a fully paid up member of whatever the current leader of the conservative party espoused at anytime.You followed every word Cameron said now you follow with the same zeal the current robotic one dimensional PM0 -
No it's not. "Hygge" is making things homely and nice, and we already have English equivalents like "comfy-cozy". "Hiraeth" (and for that matter, "heimat") is the feeling of being tied to a specific place and people, but on the level of instinct and emotion, not conscious rationality. As such it is difficult to describe in words. English equivalents like "blood and soil" are close, but that has violent connotations that "hiraeth" lacks. "Homesick" is also close, but not as strong. Think of a salmon returning to spawn.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm guessing mot of the moment hygge is similar.viewcode said:
Whist I agree with the sentiment: ("hiraeth" is one of the most useful words I know, and it's annoying that English hasn't got an equivalent: you have to go to Germany for "heimat", goddammit), I must point out that it's Michael Sheen, not Barrydaodao said:Only one word is needed to describe Barry Sheen's move:
Hiraeth.
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I believe the rest of the EU will have a much greater chance of succeeding once the UK has left. We just don't seem to be the right sort of 'fit' and would always have been a spanner in the works.Charles said:
I ascribe to both those positions.williamglenn said:
Like those people who said the single currency was doomed because of a lack of labour mobility and now think the EU is doomed because of free movement.Scott_P said:
Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
The only way to resolve it is to create a single federal state with massive fiscal transfers and free movement of people.
Good luck to them but I don't want the UK to be part of it.
How long it will take for the peoples of Europe to feel like a single body is outside my guessing, but once the fact of a single state has been accomplished, no doubt they'll settle down to it eventually.0 -
Campaigning to change people's minds so that the outcome changes, ideally by obtaining a new mandate is absolutely legitimate.
Leavers who advertise their lack of faith in the ability of the Leave coalition to hold together in the face of continued argument about the merits of EU membership and demerits of leaving just undermine their own position.0 -
I was under the impression that hygge originally had a certain cultural yearning quality to it until the interior designers and glossy mags whored it out for their own purposes.viewcode said:
No it's not. "Hygge" is making things homely and nice, and we already have English equivalents like "comfy-cozy". "Hiraeth" (and for that matter, "heimat") is the feeling of being tied to a specific place and people, but on the level of instinct and emotion, not conscious rationality. As such it is difficult to describe in words. English equivalents like "blood and soil" are close, but that has violent connotations that "hiraeth" lacks. "Homesick" is also close, but not as strong. Think of a salmon returning to spawn.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm guessing mot of the moment hygge is similar.viewcode said:
Whist I agree with the sentiment: ("hiraeth" is one of the most useful words I know, and it's annoying that English hasn't got an equivalent: you have to go to Germany for "heimat", goddammit), I must point out that it's Michael Sheen, not Barrydaodao said:Only one word is needed to describe Barry Sheen's move:
Hiraeth.0 -
@ Viewcode:
Thanks for correcting the first name in my comment re Mr Sheen - it was a subconscious error.
As for Brexit, I agree with your comment "When they (the EU27) have worked out what the deal is, they'll tell us". If one leaves a club, one has no input into the terms for associate membership - it is by grace and favour, if at all. I don't expect any deal for the UK to remain in the Single Market will be at an acceptable price from the UK's perspective.
The UK is the sick man of Europe: it is the piggy that isn't in the Euro because its financial state was so bad (even compared to Italy) that it had to leave the ERM in 1992. The UK's financial position remains appalling when one looks at private as well as public debt. The deficits in overseas trade and services are dire and the UK is only being kept afloat by massive inflows of capital from unsavoury regimes elsewhere.
The UK will also be "out in the cold" from a defence perspective if the USA under Trump acts as an isolationist, the EU27 set up joint armed forces and NATO disintegrates - it is well past its sell-by date.0 -
Indeed, surely they would only be interested in why the UK voted to leave if they believed there was any chance/risk of others voting the same way. It suggests they are very confident of the EU's popularity in all the other 27 countries.foxinsoxuk said:daodao said:Whatever the wishes/views of the UK public and its government, the shade of Brexit will depend on whether the EU's remaining members can agree a common position, which will be determined primary by political (not economic) considerations. Given the degree of differing views within this heterogeneous group, and the desire of some Europeans to punish the UK for its insolent decision to leave the EU, the UK government and companies that do business with the EU27 should be assuming that the default position is a Hard Brexit.
Shocking isn't it. We say we are leaving, and now they are not interested in our views anymore. Who would have thought?williamglenn said:
A referendum on leaving, and they're treating us as if we are leaving.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
@viewcode is right. When the EU 27 have decided what the deal is, they will let us know. We can then decide to take it or leave it.0 -
A single body? It depends on your frame of reference. To someone from Texas, the US is a very disparate and diverse group of states. We're so close to the EU that it will always appear that way to us, even if to someone from Japan it looks like an absolutely monolithic block.AnneJGP said:
I believe the rest of the EU will have a much greater chance of succeeding once the UK has left. We just don't seem to be the right sort of 'fit' and would always have been a spanner in the works.Charles said:
I ascribe to both those positions.williamglenn said:
Like those people who said the single currency was doomed because of a lack of labour mobility and now think the EU is doomed because of free movement.Scott_P said:
Many of the same hard Brexiteers who previously argued it was about to become a superstate...williamglenn said:Many hard Brexiteers genuinely think that the EU is on its last legs and will collapse before the two year period is up.
The only way to resolve it is to create a single federal state with massive fiscal transfers and free movement of people.
Good luck to them but I don't want the UK to be part of it.
How long it will take for the peoples of Europe to feel like a single body is outside my guessing, but once the fact of a single state has been accomplished, no doubt they'll settle down to it eventually.0 -
If so, I was wrong; apologies.Theuniondivvie said:I was under the impression that hygge originally had a certain cultural yearning quality to it until the interior designers and glossy mags whored it out for their own purposes.
[edit: remove details from another post]
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Miss JGP, not necessarily popularity. Fear of leaving does just as well.0
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Leavers are pathologically frit of their whole mission collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions.williamglenn said:Campaigning to change people's minds so that the outcome changes, ideally by obtaining a new mandate is absolutely legitimate.
Leavers who advertise their lack of faith in the ability of the Leave coalition to hold together in the face of continued argument about the merits of EU membership and demerits of leaving just undermine their own position.
Hence the continued scorn and anger for "Remoaners", and the certifiable suspicion of our European neighbours (apparently they are all - ALL - ganging up on us!).
As Trump would say: sad!0 -
Mr. Walker, either that, or people have noticed the numerous court cases designed to slow down, frustrate or present opportunities to reject the referendum result...0
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Och, I don't think either of us was wrong.viewcode said:
If so, I was wrong; apologies.Theuniondivvie said:I was under the impression that hygge originally had a certain cultural yearning quality to it until the interior designers and glossy mags whored it out for their own purposes.
[edit: remove details from another post]
I believe it's one of those terms that's been around for a while, but has just had a very large amount of bollocks attached to it very recently.0 -
There is a substitute for that dystopian future: test the Brexiteers to destruction instead.AlastairMeeks said:(3) there can be no change of course until Brexit is tested to destruction.
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Court cases to remind the government of its own democratic duties.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Walker, either that, or people have noticed the numerous court cases designed to slow down, frustrate or present opportunities to reject the referendum result...
It is grimly ironic that those who seek to restore UK's sovereign democracy would be glad to do so via anti-democratic means.
But again, it points to a fear of the enemy within.
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The video clip of "Theresa No Mates" was resonant because it showed the rather bleak reality of Brexit.AnneJGP said:
Indeed, surely they would only be interested in why the UK voted to leave if they believed there was any chance/risk of others voting the same way. It suggests they are very confident of the EU's popularity in all the other 27 countries.foxinsoxuk said:daodao said:Whatever the wishes/views of the UK public and its government, the shade of Brexit will depend on whether the EU's remaining members can agree a common position, which will be determined primary by political (not economic) considerations. Given the degree of differing views within this heterogeneous group, and the desire of some Europeans to punish the UK for its insolent decision to leave the EU, the UK government and companies that do business with the EU27 should be assuming that the default position is a Hard Brexit.
Shocking isn't it. We say we are leaving, and now they are not interested in our views anymore. Who would have thought?williamglenn said:
A referendum on leaving, and they're treating us as if we are leaving.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Viewcode, only one of those 28 had a referendum. It's hardly a fair comparison.
@viewcode is right. When the EU 27 have decided what the deal is, they will let us know. We can then decide to take it or leave it.
She is so devoid of people skills that I wonder how she got so far in politics. Between her and the three Brexiteers we have a hopless negotiating team. A poor position being led by a poor leader.0 -
I burst out laughing at that: thank youTheuniondivvie said:
Och, I don't think either of us was wrong.viewcode said:
If so, I was wrong; apologies.Theuniondivvie said:I was under the impression that hygge originally had a certain cultural yearning quality to it until the interior designers and glossy mags whored it out for their own purposes.
[edit: remove details from another post]
I believe it's just one of those terms that's been around for a while, but has just had a very large amount of bollocks attached to it very recently.
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Mr. Walker, the anti-democratic means of electing a government with a manifesto commitment to hold a referendum, a Commons vote passing the referendum and the electorate then voting in that referendum to leave the EU?
I'm not sure that's anti-democratic.0 -
Max remain is now soft brexit staying on the customs union, access to the single market, free movement of people.The result will not be overturned just irrelevant to a modern society with free trade.0
