politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn Zac’s 23k majority with a lead of 1,872
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn Zac’s 23k majority with a lead of 1,872
Liberal Democrats Defeat Zac Goldsmith In Richmond Park By-Election https://t.co/ayns87KJ2s via @jimwaterson @BuzzFeedUK
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First like Farron. And first to say such.
Edit/goodnight all0 -
FPT
Except that there is just one candidate at Sleaford who is standing on a Remain platform. He happens to be male. And he is the Lib Dem candidate.AndyJS said:Not important but this means the number of female MPs will almost certainly hit 30% next week with the result of the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election.
The Leave vote will be split among the Conservative, Labour and UKIP candidates. Can the representative of an unhappy Conservative government harvest more than 40% of the vote?0 -
Next election/referendum: Austria and Italy on Sunday.0
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Excellent result though it is for the LibDems , it is a smaller majority than they enjoyed 1997 - 2010 when they lost to Zac.0
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Mid term By-elections have become part of our uncodified constitution as a check and balance to the executive. I'm ecstatic to see it come into play here and on Brexit. Forza to the Supreme Court.
As for the Lib Dems it is emotional to see the corpse of the old girl twitch. It reminds me very powerfully of Eastbourne although of course the party is in much worse shape now than then. I'm glad I sent a few pennies to this campaign as a one off. The circumstances of the By-election are sui generis. What we can't know yet is whether, however atypical Richmond Park is, this is part of a trend towards brexitisation of British politics. As ever we need more data.0 -
Perhaps the leave inclined voters in Richmond Park were less enthused about voting when they heard on the media that Boris was in favour of free movement and David Davies suggesting we would be paying danegeld to the EU.0
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In the medium term Labour is probably the loser from this by election, as they have been from most political events of the past few years0
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Very good result for the Lib Dems, but let's not get carried away - mid term bye-elections are a useful tool for holding the government to account- and as for the loser, couldn't have happened to a more deserving posh boy.....0
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justin124 said:
Excellent result though it is for the LibDems , it is a smaller majority than they enjoyed 1997 - 2010 when they lost to Zac.
justin124 said:Excellent result though it is for the LibDems , it is a smaller majority than they enjoyed 1997 - 2010 when they lost to Zac.
4.5% Maj tonight compared to 5.2% in the 1997 break through.justin124 said:Excellent result though it is for the LibDems , it is a smaller majority than they enjoyed 1997 - 2010 when they lost to Zac.
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the Labour figure, absolutely pathetic.0
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FPT
I think the polls may be right, but that doesn't make them useful. It might be better for them to poll the *favourability* of the parties, like they do with politicians; Within the world where only 7% rank the LibDems first, there's a huge practical difference between another 60% thinking them a tolerable second and everybody except the 7% hating them.Speedy said:0 -
Sky News: Zac is distraught.0
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Daily Mail reader comment
Apparently it would seem that Zac Goldsmith lost.Can we now have another vote on this because it was not the result that some people wanted?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/reader-comments/p/comment/link/1605419100 -
The Brexit split is important but I don't think it's an overwhelming motivating factor; If it was, the LibDems should have won Richmond by much bigger margins.PClipp said:FPT
Except that there is just one candidate at Sleaford who is standing on a Remain platform. He happens to be male. And he is the Lib Dem candidate.AndyJS said:Not important but this means the number of female MPs will almost certainly hit 30% next week with the result of the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election.
The Leave vote will be split among the Conservative, Labour and UKIP candidates. Can the representative of an unhappy Conservative government harvest more than 40% of the vote?0 -
I doubt that somehow - Labour has been very weak in this constituency since 1970.Losing a deposit was a price well worth paying simply to cut the Tory majority to 10!IanB2 said:In the medium term Labour is probably the loser from this by election, as they have been from most political events of the past few years
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Conservative party says Richmond Park result will not affect Brexit or Heathrow
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live?page=with:block-5840dd25e4b015a427f76908#block-5840dd25e4b015a427f769080 -
Yes. Every 5 years.old_labour said:Daily Mail reader comment
Apparently it would seem that Zac Goldsmith lost.Can we now have another vote on this because it was not the result that some people wanted?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/reader-comments/p/comment/link/1605419100 -
Fantastic result, unfortunately ends chance of Mrs May seeking a mandate for muddled brexit , or whatever she is going for.0
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Apparently the BBC said this was the highest by-election turnout since Enfield Southgate in 1984, but in fact turnout at the Crewe & Nantwich by-election in 2008 was 58.2%.0
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Wow, a seriously good result for the LibDems. Time to rethink some assumptions.0
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in terms of votes, I think Brexit was half of it and the other half was Labour prepared to vote tactically for the LibDems again.edmundintokyo said:
The Brexit split is important but I don't think it's an overwhelming motivating factor; If it was, the LibDems should have won Richmond by much bigger margins.PClipp said:FPT
Except that there is just one candidate at Sleaford who is standing on a Remain platform. He happens to be male. And he is the Lib Dem candidate.AndyJS said:Not important but this means the number of female MPs will almost certainly hit 30% next week with the result of the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election.
The Leave vote will be split among the Conservative, Labour and UKIP candidates. Can the representative of an unhappy Conservative government harvest more than 40% of the vote?
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In hindsight, the omens were not good when Zac nearly got run over by his own car.0
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The Aussie saying "never give a sucker an even break" certainly applied as regards letting the Lib Dem's Olney in at Richmond. The mayoral campaign did few favours for Zac and he could ill afford to grand stand here a few short months later over Heathrow. Much will be made of Brexit but in fact he had been quite low key in his support of this. Basically he played the price of being a self indulgent twassock.0
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When are the bookies going to pay out?0
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Betfair have settled.MikeSmithson said:When are the bookies going to pay out?
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Maybe the female voters of Richmond Park are more averse to rape fantasies than the rest of the country.0
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I was impressed by Sarah Onley's victory speech. It was genuine and heartfelt - very different from the turgid garbage trotted out by most winners over the last 20 years or so0
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FPT; Well done @MikeSmithson
You read that right back when the b/e was announced. The LD's were value at >evens.
Still, the market was fairly efficient. No huge long odds surprises.0 -
News & Star: War of words over Carlisle councillor's move to USA. http://www.newsandstar.co.uk/news/War-of-words-over-Carlisle-councillors-move-to-USA-0a9eca9a-3c85-40ca-93fc-6b2254942bc7-ds0
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And the big news tonight.
Lib Dem gain from Conservative in Chichester.
Southbourne (Chichester) result:
LDEM: 57.7% (+15.8)
CON: 25.8% (-32.3)
UKIP: 11.8% (+11.8)
LAB: 4.7% (+4.7)0 -
Only when/if Article 50 is triggered.MikeSmithson said:When are the bookies going to pay out?
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I think the Tories will have more trouble holding off the Lib Dems in the affluent south than Labour has holding off UKIP in the north. The national polls are very misleading at the moment.David_Evershed said:And the big news tonight.
Lib Dem gain from Conservative in Chichester.
Southbourne (Chichester) result:
LDEM: 57.7% (+15.8)
CON: 25.8% (-32.3)
UKIP: 11.8% (+11.8)
LAB: 4.7% (+4.7)0 -
SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-886406730 -
Everyone seems to have forgotten about Heathrow .......
....... the reason Goldsmith resigned as a Conservative and stood again as an Independent.0 -
Conversely, if the Remain vote stays with the LD in Sleaford and he can recover to 2010 levels, and the Brexit vote splits between UKIP and the Tories, then there could be an amazing result in Sleaford.
Mind, 100-1 is probably too generous!0 -
This is my point up-thread: Brexit is a factor in British politics, but people are mainly still voting for the parties they like; The whole thing isn't just transforming into a re-referendum by proxy.old_labour said:SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-886406730 -
Brexit is having the same effect on small c conservatives as Black Wednesday did. It's not about a single issue per se but a party that gambles with the country's future loses the right to call itself conservative.edmundintokyo said:
This is my point up-thread: Brexit is a factor in British politics, but people are mainly still voting for the parties they like; The whole thing isn't just transforming into a re-referendum by proxy.old_labour said:SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-886406730 -
Nah, "I'm A Celebrity". He would get high votes for doing the various disgusting tasks. Eating crow would be a good one for a starter.dugarbandier said:0 -
No, Mr Old-Labour. It would be hard to think that the whole remain vote would collapse into the Lib Dem column. But enough people, for whatever reason, switched to the Lib Dems to ensure that the Hard Brexit candidate was defeated. In this context, I am sure that you and many other Labour supporters are celebrating the fact that the Labour candidate lost his deposit.old_labour said:SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-886406730 -
Kaseterkorn
9m ago
Only 26% of the electorate voted for her. Presumably the other 74% are pro-Brexit.
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LibDems - Grinning Here!0
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They were lucky they had a self-indulgent, posho twat whose campaign during the London mayoral election tarnished his reputation.PClipp said:
No, Mr Old-Labour. It would be hard to think that the whole remain vote would collapse into the Lib Dem column. But enough people, for whatever reason, switched to the Lib Dems to ensure that the Hard Brexit candidate was defeated. In this context, I am sure that you and many other Labour supporters are celebrating the fact that the Labour candidate lost his deposit.old_labour said:SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-88640673
Only 339 lost deposits to catch up with the ones the Lib Dems lost in 2015.0 -
I'm not seeing a Black Wednesday event in the opinion polls.williamglenn said:
Brexit is having the same effect on small c conservatives as Black Wednesday did. It's not about a single issue per se but a party that gambles with the country's future loses the right to call itself conservative.edmundintokyo said:
This is my point up-thread: Brexit is a factor in British politics, but people are mainly still voting for the parties they like; The whole thing isn't just transforming into a re-referendum by proxy.old_labour said:SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-886406730 -
184 votes for Alan Hope (OMRLP) in Richmond Park is the fewest votes for a candidate in 4th place in a parliamentary by-election since 1984, when Victor Litvin (Pro-Nuclear Holocaust) got 117 votes in Surrey South West.0
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Notable how the thread isn't exactly overflowing with Cons gutted at Zac's defeat...0
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Downside of this result for the Lib Dems: they'll now need hire a third taxi to get their MPs around0
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I was delighted when Labour MP, Charles Clarke lost his Norwich seat in 2010.CarlottaVance said:Notable how the thread isn't exactly overflowing with Cons gutted at Zac's defeat...
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A London black cab has capacity for 5 passengers. They still cannot fill two.not_on_fire said:Downside of this result for the Lib Dems: they'll now need hire a third taxi to get their MPs around
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Well blow me down, it was interesting after all.
Seems probable. More than yesterday. Hard Brexit is the default and has the passion, but there was a good case for soft Brexit given the 52 48 vote, but internally I'm not sure the Tories were willing to push for it, for fear of flouncing from the hardcore. But now others can point to this as an indication, and a warning they cannot just do anything and force an early ge if needed. But it will still happen, the politics of both parties demands it. This was still a surprise, and ain't no one in government going to propose a vote to reverse Brexit, even assuming the party survived the suggestion.SeanT said:
Yes, there will. The Tories will split, horrifically, if it doesn't happen, and Labour would have some kind of psychosis.Speedy said:
There wont be even a Brexit.SeanT said:It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There will be a Brexit, but it will be fudged.
Biggest worry for fans of softer brexits might be that the LDs go too hard for remoaning instead, allowing hard brexiteers to regain their footing.0 -
I wonder if we will have another "people versus the peers" situation.0
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Genuinely thought without an official Tory candidate and with help from a few kippers that zac had this diwn pretty easy. A LD seat in the past and not officially a Tory candidate, but still a major recovery even In Such circumstances. Skeaford clearly not the same type of seat, but having come back from so far back here, even with the particular reasons that might not apply elsewhere, it has to help bring out some shy LDs not showing in polls.0
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If the LDs take that seat, then the public really is prioritising Brexit positioning above all else. I still find that hard to believe, and woukd be a huge headache, but we shall see. This result sure doesn't make it probable a remainer would win over a brexiter everywhere.PClipp said:FPT
Except that there is just one candidate at Sleaford who is standing on a Remain platform. He happens to be male. And he is the Lib Dem candidate.AndyJS said:Not important but this means the number of female MPs will almost certainly hit 30% next week with the result of the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election.
The Leave vote will be split among the Conservative, Labour and UKIP candidates. Can the representative of an unhappy Conservative government harvest more than 40% of the vote?0 -
Of course it will affect matters, who are they kidding? For one, they won't risk a snap ge now. May seemed reluctant anyway, but now they'd worry too much about losing seats to the LDs even as they whipped labour.old_labour said:Conservative party says Richmond Park result will not affect Brexit or Heathrow
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live?page=with:block-5840dd25e4b015a427f76908#block-5840dd25e4b015a427f76908
Affect doesn't mean completely change course though. But parties always pretend wins mean more then they do and losses less, and this was a loss. Even accepting zac was technically independent him winning was obviously what they wanted.0 -
In other news... Conservative website Breitbart switches its anger from snowflakes to cornflakes!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/breitbart-news-declares-war-kelloggs-pulls-advertising-a7449256.html
Reports suggest relationships between the two have become increasingly frostie and that cereal attempts to resolve the situation will be needed.0 -
O/T French election
First poll after Hollande's decision not to run - Harris interactive for RMC radio
Approve Hollande's decision 82%
Disapprove 4%
Neither 14%
This is probably the best support Hollande ever had for a single decision...
Who is the best person to represent the centre-left in the election:
Among all voters
Valls 24 Montebourg 14 Hamon 6 Someone else/No answer 56
Among left-wing voters
Valls 33% Montebourg 20 Hamon 13 Someone else/No answer 34
Potential second round (among all voters)
Valls 50 Montebourg 42 No answer 8
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Ouch.Chris_from_Paris said:O/T French election
First poll after Hollande's decision not to run - Harris interactive for RMC radio
Approve Hollande's decision 82%
Disapprove 4%
Neither 14%
This is probably the best support Hollande ever had for a single decision...
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PB Tories lining up to say Lib Dems should have done better. Predictable.0
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Good result.0
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I knew a member of the Green Party once who was pro nuclear holocaust. He argued after the initial nuclear winter it would be Carbon negative and thus good for the planet within a few decades as western civilisation would have ended.kle4 said:
Pro nuclear holocaust!!!!JohnLoony said:184 votes for Alan Hope (OMRLP) in Richmond Park is the fewest votes for a candidate in 4th place in a parliamentary by-election since 1984, when Victor Litvin (Pro-Nuclear Holocaust) got 117 votes in Surrey South West.
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Some people on here owe Farron an apology.
I tipped him for next Lib Dem leader sometime back in 2013. Why? Because it was obvious that in 2015 the Lib Dems would not need a party leader for 'ordinary' times: they would need someone who knew the party inside out; someone who could rebuild it internally. The fact he was relatively unsullied by the coalition (having held no ministerial post) and sometimes critical of it helped.
Tonight we saw the result. Great Lib Dem organisation has got them a very unexpected win, another much-needed (oh how is it needed!) seat in parliament and made the government's job much harder.
It looks as though the interesting times are going to last into 2017.0 -
Oh, and congrats to Sarah Olney. I don't think she'll be the brightest star in parliament, but at least she's not Zac.0
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@JsiasJessop I reminds me of the raising of the Mary Rose. Or reaching the top of the totalser on a Blue Peter appeal for used tinfoil to help one legged orphans. The wreck is off the Sea Bed at last.0
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Who's been saying that?Bromptonaut said:PB Tories lining up to say Lib Dems should have done better. Predictable.
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LOL, especially with your username!YellowSubmarine said:@JsiasJessop I reminds me of the raising of the Mary Rose. Or reaching the top of the totalser on a Blue Peter appeal for used tinfoil to help one legged orphans. The wreck is off the Sea Bed at last.
Yes, the Lib Dems have a long way to go. But it's clear that whilst 2015 may have massively damaged them in terms of MPs, there re still many people to whom Lib Dem politics and policies appeal. Farron's first job was to get the core of these people enthused.
The local election results seem to indicate tonight's result is *not* a one-off.
No, they're not going to win the next GE. There's virtually no chance of them forming part of the next government. But the boxer has got off the canvas and is heading towards the centre of the ring.
And that's down to Farron.0 -
The Conservatives have demonstrated that by-elections are going to be really difficult from now on, all 3 byelections this Autumn have been voluntary (ie not through death but through Tories calling it a day) the real test will be winnable Con/Lab contests with of course UKIP snapping at the heels as elections are forced on the party hierarchy and often not at a time of choice.0
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Something strangely touching about this victory speech. I think it's the understatedness of it among all the craziness, starting out at "somewhat concerned" and escalating up to "definitely getting a little bit cross".
http://news.sky.com/video/olney-victory-a-rejection-of-anger-and-division-106796360 -
A stunning victory for tolerance and openness.
Take a bow Sarah Olney.0 -
Also this Andrew Neil interview is awesome.
Neil [Sneery this-question-will-get-you tone ]: Despite the fact that the country overall voted to leave the EU you will vote to stop the mechanism which allows that to happen.
Olney: [Looks worried, blinks] Yes. [Big smile]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbuKYHwxx5Y0 -
Let alone "lining up"......Predictable indeed.RobD said:
Who's been saying that?Bromptonaut said:PB Tories lining up to say Lib Dems should have done better. Predictable.
And as "Zac" slinks off into well deserved obscurity- we are reminded from the declaration that his real name is "Frank". This is the most I've enjoyed a by election "loss" in a long time....0 -
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.0 -
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
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Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.0 -
Morning. Well that was something of a surprise. Not too many tears shed for Mr Goldsmith I don't think, the self indulgent little prick.0
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Would have been a guaranteed loss. Although given that he resigned because he disagreed with government policy, they probably should have stood someone.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.0 -
Mrs May is Prime Minister and the posh boys are either on the back benches, "pursuing other opportunities " or unemployed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is frit.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.0 -
If Mrs May was really frit she would have put up a candidate. That way, the result wouldn't have quite the impact it will now. I suspect May was quite happy to give a Zac enough rope to hang himself.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.0 -
Farron is doing the flagship 0810 interview slot on Today.0
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You sound like a Brownite in 2007/08.CarlottaVance said:
Mrs May is Prime Minister and the posh boys are either on the back benches, "pursuing other opportunities " or unemployed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is frit.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Gordon is PM and Blairites are on the backbenches.
How'd it turn out when he tried to win his own mandate?0 -
At least we should be spared further vanity by elections for a while.0
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Congrats to the LDs, this really is a topsy turvy year for politics.
O/T condolences to the Sachs family I just hope that the oafs Brand and Ross keep their gobs shut.0 -
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representativeTheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.0 -
I can understand the reasons for not standing an official Tory, but they should have stood if only to avoid encouraging others. That said, hopefully anyone else considering such a rash move has been put off by this result.Blue_rog said:
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representativeTheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.0 -
Pour encourager les autresBlue_rog said:
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representativeTheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.0 -
It takes a heart of stone not to laugh. A further example that "personal mandate" is very thin.old_labour said:Sky News: Zac is distraught.
This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning. Congratulations Sarah Olney.
Sleaford and Hykeham is a different story. Even in the East Mids LDs the emphasis was on Richmond.0 -
A great result for the lib dems. In a way, happy with this as couldnt stand Goldsmith.Blue_rog said:
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representativeTheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)0 -
Thanks for the coverage Mike. This is a great website.
Again I went with my gut feeling and backed the lib dems at about 2/1. I'd toyed previously with backing Goldsmith but concluded that Brexit was going to be a bigger issue than Heathrow, and that his backing for Brexit coupled with his questionable performance in the Mayoral capaign would mean his brand is tainted and that people simply wouldn't turn out to vote for him.
This is not a victory for the 48%, but its more like a victory for the 15% of liberal pro europeans that are concentrated in places like Richmond, who Ms Olney represents well - They will definetly be motivated to vote if they have the opportunity. Her backstory - accountant/non political/working mum also definetly helps. But I don't think this marks much of a change - as others have pointed out the lib dems HAD to win here if their current strategy is to work.
So far this year
winning bets:
£100 - Trump PUSA @ 9/2
£5 - Olney @2/1
Lost bets
£1 Farage UKIP permanent leader 18/1
Still outstanding
£9 David Davis next conservative leader 100/1
£10 Robb Johnson and Corbynistas Christmas number 1 33/10 -
Zac. You silly boy.0
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I very much doubt that there are any shy LDs distorting the national VI polls. They have been knocking around 8% for years for a very good reason: it's an accurate measure of their current support. Let's consider the Richmond Park result.kle4 said:Genuinely thought without an official Tory candidate and with help from a few kippers that zac had this diwn pretty easy. A LD seat in the past and not officially a Tory candidate, but still a major recovery even In Such circumstances. Skeaford clearly not the same type of seat, but having come back from so far back here, even with the particular reasons that might not apply elsewhere, it has to help bring out some shy LDs not showing in polls.
1. It's an extremely good result for the yellows, and I for one admit that I didn't think they had it in them to pull it off. It's certainly very different to Witney: an enormous swing against the incumbent, and this time the Labour vote collapsed.
2. However... Richmond Park is a highly atypical seat - posh, metropolitan and very pro-EU - and nor are by-elections a good indicator of general election outcomes, when people are voting for a Government and you get much higher turnouts containing more pragmatic voters. One strong LD result against a (proxy) Tory candidate does not indicate that we are on the cusp of a major revival.
3. Therefore, best case scenario for LDs: this result suggests that they may win back a couple more leafy West London seats and Cambridge. Worst case scenario: many general election voters don't back them because of several factors - wanting a centre-right Government, lack of media exposure, attempts to block the EU referendum result, a "vote Farron, get Corbyn" narrative from Tory HQ - and they get almost nowhere.
4. If Brexit really does work as a motivating factor against the Government in some places, then perhaps we ought also to acknowledge that the opposite might be true in others? There are few Tory-LD marginals left for the yellows to exploit, and in some of those (e.g. Torbay) the local electorate are strongly anti-EU rather than pro.
I see nothing, even after tonight's result, to change my fundamental opinion of where the Liberal Democrats are at the moment. They appeal to a relatively small soft-Left, Europhile vote, and they have little room to expand. The large bulk of Conservative voters, even if they are pragmatic Remainers, won't find the Liberal Democrat platform appealing in a general election, and the Labour brand appears resilient enough to place their bedrock support levels at somewhere around 25%.
Ukip continues to poll around 12-13% nationally, and the Leave proposition is more popular than the Remain one. Accordingly, if and when the Liberal Democrats run in a general election as an anti-Ukip for Remainers, we ought not to be surprised if they struggle to make it into double figures (both in terms of national vote share and number of MPs.)0 -
O/T French election
More on the first left-wing primary poll (Harris for RMC)
The second round figures are:
- All voters
Valls 50 Montebourg 42 Unsure/Neither 8
- Left-wing voters
Valls 47 Montebourg 45 Unsure/Neither 8
- Socialist voters
Valls 71 Montebourg 24 Unsure/Neither 5
So the key question is again who will vote in this open primary. If it's only the core socialist vote , Vallls will probably win easily, especially if no pro-Hollande candidates joins the race.
If the other left-wing voters (including a lot of fomer socialists) come and vote this will be very close.
Valls is helped by the bizarre choice of date: the campaign will be between mid December and mid-January. The two rounds of voting are scheduled for the 22nd and 29th of January.
The tv debates will probably be key. Their dates have not been announced yet.
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Perhaps Theresa May will take this to mean Richmonders ain't that bothered about Heathrow Expansion.
Or Zac.0 -
Yes but be fair, they exploited those aspects of Corbyn very cleverly to seize all those Labour votesold_labour said:
They were lucky they had a self-indulgent, posho twat whose campaign during the London mayoral election tarnished his reputation.PClipp said:
No, Mr Old-Labour. It would be hard to think that the whole remain vote would collapse into the Lib Dem column. But enough people, for whatever reason, switched to the Lib Dems to ensure that the Hard Brexit candidate was defeated. In this context, I am sure that you and many other Labour supporters are celebrating the fact that the Labour candidate lost his deposit.old_labour said:SpecialAgentOrange
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-88640673
Only 339 lost deposits to catch up with the ones the Lib Dems lost in 2015.
I'm sure that Labour will easily surpass the Lib Dem total of lost deposits if Corbyn is leader and continues to behave as he has done. And that isn't a joke.0 -
Serves him right. I wonder if he managed to even get a word in about Heathrow, something that all those standing seemed to agree on.
As I said the other day the upside is that we are much less likely to see any more of this self indulgent twaddle in future.0 -
Both Olney and Zac were campaigning against Heathrow, so it's probably not that.Razedabode said:
A great result for the lib dems. In a way, happy with this as couldnt stand Goldsmith.Blue_rog said:
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representativeTheScreamingEagles said:
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)
The mayoral campaign probably played into it a little, but mainly it'll be about the EU. AFAICR Zac was not just a leaver but a hard Brexiter.
His platform was also somewhat odd: "My constituents are against Heathrow, and therefore I'm against Heathrow. But my constituents are for remaining, and I'm for leaving."
Well, he's left. Good riddance.0 -
Sadly, anti-Heathrow candidates got somewhere around 95% of the vote.Casino_Royale said:Perhaps Theresa May will take this to mean Richmonders ain't that bothered about Heathrow Expansion.
Or Zac.0 -
.... and the stupidity of the labour position is clear for everyone to see.
They tried to fight the lib dems on the lib dems own ground (Wolmar took the same line on Brexit, same position on Heathrow, even though in the first case at least it was at odds with the official party policy). An unbelievably, incredibly, unthinkably stupid strategy. The only outcome could be to split the vote. Wolmar may as well have been a tory plant. Will they learn anything from this experience? unlikely
The lib dems deserved to win this, and labour deserved to lose their deposit.
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I'd say the Blairites and the posh boys stand similar chances of rehabilitation - or should that be resurrection?TheScreamingEagles said:
Gordon is PM and Blairites are on the backbenches.CarlottaVance said:
Mrs May is Prime Minister and the posh boys are either on the back benches, "pursuing other opportunities " or unemployed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mrs May is frit.RobD said:
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surelyTheScreamingEagles said:A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
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