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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn Zac’s 23k majority with a lead of 1,872
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs overturn Zac’s 23k majority with a lead of 1,872
Liberal Democrats Defeat Zac Goldsmith In Richmond Park By-Election https://t.co/ayns87KJ2s via @jimwaterson @BuzzFeedUK
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Edit/goodnight all
The Leave vote will be split among the Conservative, Labour and UKIP candidates. Can the representative of an unhappy Conservative government harvest more than 40% of the vote?
As for the Lib Dems it is emotional to see the corpse of the old girl twitch. It reminds me very powerfully of Eastbourne although of course the party is in much worse shape now than then. I'm glad I sent a few pennies to this campaign as a one off. The circumstances of the By-election are sui generis. What we can't know yet is whether, however atypical Richmond Park is, this is part of a trend towards brexitisation of British politics. As ever we need more data.
Apparently it would seem that Zac Goldsmith lost.Can we now have another vote on this because it was not the result that some people wanted?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/reader-comments/p/comment/link/160541910
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live?page=with:block-5840dd25e4b015a427f76908#block-5840dd25e4b015a427f76908
You read that right back when the b/e was announced. The LD's were value at >evens.
Still, the market was fairly efficient. No huge long odds surprises.
Lib Dem gain from Conservative in Chichester.
Southbourne (Chichester) result:
LDEM: 57.7% (+15.8)
CON: 25.8% (-32.3)
UKIP: 11.8% (+11.8)
LAB: 4.7% (+4.7)
11m ago
Is it worth me pointing out that even though Richmond voted 70-30 for Remain the result this morning was Remain 53% Leave 47%, looks to me as though the remain vote has collapsed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live#comment-88640673
....... the reason Goldsmith resigned as a Conservative and stood again as an Independent.
Mind, 100-1 is probably too generous!
9m ago
Only 26% of the electorate voted for her. Presumably the other 74% are pro-Brexit.
Only 339 lost deposits to catch up with the ones the Lib Dems lost in 2015.
Biggest worry for fans of softer brexits might be that the LDs go too hard for remoaning instead, allowing hard brexiteers to regain their footing.
Affect doesn't mean completely change course though. But parties always pretend wins mean more then they do and losses less, and this was a loss. Even accepting zac was technically independent him winning was obviously what they wanted.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/breitbart-news-declares-war-kelloggs-pulls-advertising-a7449256.html
Reports suggest relationships between the two have become increasingly frostie and that cereal attempts to resolve the situation will be needed.
First poll after Hollande's decision not to run - Harris interactive for RMC radio
Approve Hollande's decision 82%
Disapprove 4%
Neither 14%
This is probably the best support Hollande ever had for a single decision...
Who is the best person to represent the centre-left in the election:
Among all voters
Valls 24 Montebourg 14 Hamon 6 Someone else/No answer 56
Among left-wing voters
Valls 33% Montebourg 20 Hamon 13 Someone else/No answer 34
Potential second round (among all voters)
Valls 50 Montebourg 42 No answer 8
I tipped him for next Lib Dem leader sometime back in 2013. Why? Because it was obvious that in 2015 the Lib Dems would not need a party leader for 'ordinary' times: they would need someone who knew the party inside out; someone who could rebuild it internally. The fact he was relatively unsullied by the coalition (having held no ministerial post) and sometimes critical of it helped.
Tonight we saw the result. Great Lib Dem organisation has got them a very unexpected win, another much-needed (oh how is it needed!) seat in parliament and made the government's job much harder.
It looks as though the interesting times are going to last into 2017.
Yes, the Lib Dems have a long way to go. But it's clear that whilst 2015 may have massively damaged them in terms of MPs, there re still many people to whom Lib Dem politics and policies appeal. Farron's first job was to get the core of these people enthused.
The local election results seem to indicate tonight's result is *not* a one-off.
No, they're not going to win the next GE. There's virtually no chance of them forming part of the next government. But the boxer has got off the canvas and is heading towards the centre of the ring.
And that's down to Farron.
http://news.sky.com/video/olney-victory-a-rejection-of-anger-and-division-10679636
Take a bow Sarah Olney.
Neil [Sneery this-question-will-get-you tone ]: Despite the fact that the country overall voted to leave the EU you will vote to stop the mechanism which allows that to happen.
Olney: [Looks worried, blinks] Yes. [Big smile]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbuKYHwxx5Y
And as "Zac" slinks off into well deserved obscurity- we are reminded from the declaration that his real name is "Frank". This is the most I've enjoyed a by election "loss" in a long time....
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
Mrs May is frit.
Gordon is PM and Blairites are on the backbenches.
How'd it turn out when he tried to win his own mandate?
O/T condolences to the Sachs family I just hope that the oafs Brand and Ross keep their gobs shut.
This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, but it is perhaps the end of the beginning. Congratulations Sarah Olney.
Sleaford and Hykeham is a different story. Even in the East Mids LDs the emphasis was on Richmond.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)
Again I went with my gut feeling and backed the lib dems at about 2/1. I'd toyed previously with backing Goldsmith but concluded that Brexit was going to be a bigger issue than Heathrow, and that his backing for Brexit coupled with his questionable performance in the Mayoral capaign would mean his brand is tainted and that people simply wouldn't turn out to vote for him.
This is not a victory for the 48%, but its more like a victory for the 15% of liberal pro europeans that are concentrated in places like Richmond, who Ms Olney represents well - They will definetly be motivated to vote if they have the opportunity. Her backstory - accountant/non political/working mum also definetly helps. But I don't think this marks much of a change - as others have pointed out the lib dems HAD to win here if their current strategy is to work.
So far this year
winning bets:
£100 - Trump PUSA @ 9/2
£5 - Olney @2/1
Lost bets
£1 Farage UKIP permanent leader 18/1
Still outstanding
£9 David Davis next conservative leader 100/1
£10 Robb Johnson and Corbynistas Christmas number 1 33/1
1. It's an extremely good result for the yellows, and I for one admit that I didn't think they had it in them to pull it off. It's certainly very different to Witney: an enormous swing against the incumbent, and this time the Labour vote collapsed.
2. However... Richmond Park is a highly atypical seat - posh, metropolitan and very pro-EU - and nor are by-elections a good indicator of general election outcomes, when people are voting for a Government and you get much higher turnouts containing more pragmatic voters. One strong LD result against a (proxy) Tory candidate does not indicate that we are on the cusp of a major revival.
3. Therefore, best case scenario for LDs: this result suggests that they may win back a couple more leafy West London seats and Cambridge. Worst case scenario: many general election voters don't back them because of several factors - wanting a centre-right Government, lack of media exposure, attempts to block the EU referendum result, a "vote Farron, get Corbyn" narrative from Tory HQ - and they get almost nowhere.
4. If Brexit really does work as a motivating factor against the Government in some places, then perhaps we ought also to acknowledge that the opposite might be true in others? There are few Tory-LD marginals left for the yellows to exploit, and in some of those (e.g. Torbay) the local electorate are strongly anti-EU rather than pro.
I see nothing, even after tonight's result, to change my fundamental opinion of where the Liberal Democrats are at the moment. They appeal to a relatively small soft-Left, Europhile vote, and they have little room to expand. The large bulk of Conservative voters, even if they are pragmatic Remainers, won't find the Liberal Democrat platform appealing in a general election, and the Labour brand appears resilient enough to place their bedrock support levels at somewhere around 25%.
Ukip continues to poll around 12-13% nationally, and the Leave proposition is more popular than the Remain one. Accordingly, if and when the Liberal Democrats run in a general election as an anti-Ukip for Remainers, we ought not to be surprised if they struggle to make it into double figures (both in terms of national vote share and number of MPs.)
More on the first left-wing primary poll (Harris for RMC)
The second round figures are:
- All voters
Valls 50 Montebourg 42 Unsure/Neither 8
- Left-wing voters
Valls 47 Montebourg 45 Unsure/Neither 8
- Socialist voters
Valls 71 Montebourg 24 Unsure/Neither 5
So the key question is again who will vote in this open primary. If it's only the core socialist vote , Vallls will probably win easily, especially if no pro-Hollande candidates joins the race.
If the other left-wing voters (including a lot of fomer socialists) come and vote this will be very close.
Valls is helped by the bizarre choice of date: the campaign will be between mid December and mid-January. The two rounds of voting are scheduled for the 22nd and 29th of January.
The tv debates will probably be key. Their dates have not been announced yet.
Or Zac.
I'm sure that Labour will easily surpass the Lib Dem total of lost deposits if Corbyn is leader and continues to behave as he has done. And that isn't a joke.
As I said the other day the upside is that we are much less likely to see any more of this self indulgent twaddle in future.
The mayoral campaign probably played into it a little, but mainly it'll be about the EU. AFAICR Zac was not just a leaver but a hard Brexiter.
His platform was also somewhat odd: "My constituents are against Heathrow, and therefore I'm against Heathrow. But my constituents are for remaining, and I'm for leaving."
Well, he's left. Good riddance.
They tried to fight the lib dems on the lib dems own ground (Wolmar took the same line on Brexit, same position on Heathrow, even though in the first case at least it was at odds with the official party policy). An unbelievably, incredibly, unthinkably stupid strategy. The only outcome could be to split the vote. Wolmar may as well have been a tory plant. Will they learn anything from this experience? unlikely
The lib dems deserved to win this, and labour deserved to lose their deposit.