Marvellous to see PB Tories who were defending Zac's dog whistle mayoral campaign and made excuses for his disgusting MoS front page have now decided they didn't like him all along. Verily, if a week is a long time in politics a six month is a positive aeon of forgetfulness.
very "tim" esque.. tarring everyone with the same brush. I never liked Zac, I thought him arrogant and I don't believe in this nonsense of resigning and refighting your seat... and he's now got his come uppance.. as I posted BEFORE you
HAahahahahahaha
Tim is never far from your thoughts, is he? He always had the PB Tories down to a tee.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Not all Leavers were intolerant xenophobes, but all intolereant xenophobes were Leavers.
Leave contained several subsets, including those expecting £350m extra per week for the NHS. Good people, albeit gullible.
That's not true either.
How's that well planned, tolerant, soft Brexit thing working out for ya?
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Not all Leavers were intolerant xenophobes, but all intolereant xenophobes were Leavers.
Leave contained several subsets, including those expecting £350m extra per week for the NHS. Good people, albeit gullible.
That's not true either.
How's that well planned, tolerant, soft Brexit thing working out for ya?
Twitter really does seem to stop some people's brains from working. How can anyone be stupid enough to think that's a clever or bright thing to publish?
Wtf? According to Telegraph, new LibDem MP said following:
that her election vote "paved the way for Parliament to "override" the EU withdrawal referendum result."
and
"The result was a rejection of the "politics of anger and division""
I'm a Remainer, but even I can see that this is crap. If Parliament does find a way to overturn the vote it will certainly not be rejection of the politics of anger and division.
"Calling Remainers unpatriotic is equally offensive, we just believe in a more open minded Britain."
I've no problem with Remainers. I shall be having a drink with some this afternoon and there's never been rancour. Real life is far more important than politics.
There does seem to be a worrying undercurrent in some area to demonise political opponents. Previously, this was the province of the extreme left and right. Remainers are not traitorous pig-dogs and Leavers are not thick knuckle-dragging Neanderthals. Zac's mistake in the Mayoral election was always to portray Sadiq as a hard-line extremist. He may be a hard-line politician but that's all (saying what the audience want to hear).
I do begin to fear that there is a split developing in this country. Londoners have always been regarded up here as effete and posh - a convenient stereotype - but more in sympathy than anger. But the stereotype of Leavers as stupid and racist has ratcheted things up. It allows the democratic will of the country to be disregarded with justification. Therein lie future problems.
LDs sense an opportunity, but they need to be careful. If they vote against Article 50, it won't be for good reasons. A sense of moral superiority may keep you warm, but friends it does not make. I speak as a former Labour voter up to Tony's appearance, and an LD voter up to 2015.
Congratulations to the LDs, but Richmond is Richmond. Not a barometer of anything.
+1
The LibDems are not just playing with fire if they try to stop the triggering of Article 50 (and I'm a frothing-at-the-mouth remainiac, and a party member). They are actually missing a huge opportunity. The Brexit vote is creating an existential crisis for the EU, which will play out over the next few years. In a strange kind of way, although we precipitated it, we've also given ourselves the opportunity to step aside for a few years during the upheavals.
If the LibDems play the long game as the pro-EU party, they can begin the (10 to 20 year) process of getting back into whatever will emerge as the new EU, and in the process rebuild themselves into a major political force over the long-term. This needs nerve, a willingness to play the long game, and a strong leader. Mmm...
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Not all Leavers were intolerant xenophobes, but all intolereant xenophobes were Leavers.
Leave contained several subsets, including those expecting £350m extra per week for the NHS. Good people, albeit gullible.
That's not true either.
How's that well planned, tolerant, soft Brexit thing working out for ya?
Twitter really does seem to stop some people's brains from working. How can anyone be stupid enough to think that's a clever or bright thing to publish?
A well-publicised and long period in jail for a large number of these death threat idiots would help.
That is serious trolling. And also serious confirmation bias. Thing is that virtually all the Brits that Verhofstadht will talk to (apart from DeExEU) will be Remainers reinforcing the EU view that Brexit is stupid/disastrous and the narrow victory Leave achieved was by deception.
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
Mr. Eagles, if we're dealing in guilt by loose association, do you blame Islam for terrorism? Should the Pope be blamed for the individual crimes of priests?
People are responsible for what they say and do, but they are not responsible for the actions of others.
That is serious trolling. And also serious confirmation bias. Thing is that virtually all the Brits that Verhofstadht will talk to (apart from DeExEU) will be Remainers reinforcing the EU view that Brexit is stupid/disastrous and the narrow victory Leave achieved was by deception.
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
Agree with that.
The EU's response to our vote does not fill me with confidence. There seems to be no acknowledgement that the product they're selling is undesirable to many people.
That's a shame for them, as I doubt it's saleable in the long term to populations of some other EU countries.
That is serious trolling. And also serious confirmation bias. Thing is that virtually all the Brits that Verhofstadht will talk to (apart from DeExEU) will be Remainers reinforcing the EU view that Brexit is stupid/disastrous and the narrow victory Leave achieved was by deception.
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
Mr. Eagles, if we're dealing in guilt by loose association, do you blame Islam for terrorism? Should the Pope be blamed for the individual crimes of priests?
There's a prevalent view (sometimes even expressed on here I believe) that in both cases they should acknowledge at least some responsibility for or complicity in these events.
That is serious trolling. And also serious confirmation bias. Thing is that virtually all the Brits that Verhofstadht will talk to (apart from DeExEU) will be Remainers reinforcing the EU view that Brexit is stupid/disastrous and the narrow victory Leave achieved was by deception.
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
Agree with that.
The EU's response to our vote does not fill me with confidence. There seems to be no acknowledgement that the product they're selling is undesirable to many people.
That's a shame for them, as I doubt it's saleable in the long term to populations of some other EU countries.
They need to start listening.
Agreed. The conclusion I reached that the EU could not and would not listen to democratic votes for reform was one of my key reasons for leaving. The pull was the long-term economic opportunities i saw for an independent UK as well as the political renewal.
I am frustrated that the debate got so out-of-hand (and I didn't exactly help at times) but I don't think I could have brought myself to vote to Remain in this organisation under any circumstances, even if it were overwhelmingly in my immediate economic interests.
Oh and btw, not to blow my own trumpet (blowing my own trumpet):
Nov 2 TOPPING: off topic I think the 6/4 LDs in Richmond is good value
Nov 2 TOPPING: LDs throwing a lot, and I mean a lot at it.
Not quite @Morris_Dancer F1 status but, modestly, not dreadful.
Well done. Wish I had listened. I knew LibDems would run it close, but was persuaded that a residual Zac personal vote would see him home.
As was I, but I was also persuaded HRC and Remain would win. So unless the Sleaford byelection offers juicy odds (result = *much* easier to predict, IMO), I'll pass for the moment ...
Oh and btw, not to blow my own trumpet (blowing my own trumpet):
Nov 2 TOPPING: off topic I think the 6/4 LDs in Richmond is good value
Nov 2 TOPPING: LDs throwing a lot, and I mean a lot at it.
Not quite @Morris_Dancer F1 status but, modestly, not dreadful.
Well done. Wish I had listened. I knew LibDems would run it close, but was persuaded that a residual Zac personal vote would see him home.
As was I, but I was also persuaded HRC and Remain would win. So unless the Sleaford byelection offers juicy odds (result = *much* easier to predict, IMO), I'll pass for the moment ...
Luckily my big win on Leave winning the referendum is sustaining me through POTUS and by-elections. I'm staying out of Sleaford, nothing to see here, move along.
Mr. Divvie, I wouldn't condemn a Muslim I knew because his brother came out with something stupid, or if he happened to have gone to school with someone who turned out to be a terrorist.
And this does cut both ways. The Polish chap who was murdered shortly after the vote immediately had his tragic death portrayed by an eager media as related to the referendum, only for it to emerge it was, allegedly, a gang of mixed race youths who did it.
Farage has repeatedly been chased out of pubs and the like (sometimes with his family). I said at the time it was politics of Milo and Clodius. We're rather closer to that now.
If we end up staying in the EU or having a departure in name only, that will foster more bitterness and resentment, and things will get worse, rather than better. If we leave, then things will gradually improve.
Oh and btw, not to blow my own trumpet (blowing my own trumpet):
Nov 2 TOPPING: off topic I think the 6/4 LDs in Richmond is good value
Nov 2 TOPPING: LDs throwing a lot, and I mean a lot at it.
Not quite @Morris_Dancer F1 status but, modestly, not dreadful.
Well done. Wish I had listened. I knew LibDems would run it close, but was persuaded that a residual Zac personal vote would see him home.
Exactly the same, my on the night trading was poor too - managed to turn a +150 Zac/+30 Lib Dem into a +25 Lib Dem win.
Big change from POTUS count style !
I had too little invested to bother to stay past 1:30am. I note though in passing that Chris Mason is turning out to be a rather amusing fellow to report by-election news. I seem to recall him replying to Andrew Neil, that it was "second banana time here at the Richmond count."
Oh and btw, not to blow my own trumpet (blowing my own trumpet):
Nov 2 TOPPING: off topic I think the 6/4 LDs in Richmond is good value
Nov 2 TOPPING: LDs throwing a lot, and I mean a lot at it.
Not quite @Morris_Dancer F1 status but, modestly, not dreadful.
Well done. Wish I had listened. I knew LibDems would run it close, but was persuaded that a residual Zac personal vote would see him home.
As was I, but I was also persuaded HRC and Remain would win. So unless the Sleaford byelection offers juicy odds (result = *much* easier to predict, IMO), I'll pass for the moment ...
Luckily my big win on Leave winning the referendum is sustaining me through POTUS and by-elections. I'm staying out of Sleaford, nothing to see here, move along.
I have bet on Sleaford but am taking no chances lol:
Against Conservatives £152.57 £16.78 1.11 £152.57 For Conservatives £152.57 1.1632 £152.57
2016 = the year of puncturing the hubris of Etonians, it would seem [amongst other things].
What an idiot Goldsmith was to make that promise in the first place.
Correct. He should have said: I will never stop fighting to stop a 3rd runway. Back me, vote for me, I will be there for you. He is not verbally flexible enough. It is not honesty, it is inflexibility of thought and communication.
And probably should not have said, as the campaign started, that he agreed it was a silly promise and if he had his time again would not have made it in the first place? He as good as told them he was wasting their time.
indeed. As I said before, he is not a flexible thinker or speaker.
I went to some European meetings in a peripheral way - for scientific input only - and I thought it was, at heart, a noble enterprise. However, it was always 28 different countries with 28 different priorities, although you did gang up on a quid pro quo basis.
The only way to achieve the founders' real objectives is to create a country/state called Europe. Where a Norwegian acknowledges an Italian as a fellow countryman. Therefore what's good for Italy is good for Norway.
The leaders realise that is not politically possible, so it is more a lumbering up/down approach a bit at a time and hoping no one notices the general direction. I find that dishonest and slightly insulting. No matter how well-intentioned they are.
Mr. Divvie, I wouldn't condemn a Muslim I knew because his brother came out with something stupid, or if he happened to have gone to school with someone who turned out to be a terrorist.
And this does cut both ways. The Polish chap who was murdered shortly after the vote immediately had his tragic death portrayed by an eager media as related to the referendum, only for it to emerge it was, allegedly, a gang of mixed race youths who did it.
Farage has repeatedly been chased out of pubs and the like (sometimes with his family). I said at the time it was politics of Milo and Clodius. We're rather closer to that now.
If we end up staying in the EU or having a departure in name only, that will foster more bitterness and resentment, and things will get worse, rather than better. If we leave, then things will gradually improve.
Point of order: I believe someone's just been charged with manslaughter over the Harlow case, so we should be careful.
But I will make the point that just because the gang was mixed-race, does not mean that the referendum and the febrile atmosphere around it was irrelevant. People who commit such crimes don't necessarily think logically about such things, and the atmosphere can play into existing prejudices and pressures locally.
It's easy to imagine being the child of immigrants who sees the UK as home, but can't get a job because of all these Eastern European incomers. They're the problem. They're not English. You are. And anyway, your parents were the *right sort of immigrant*.
And this does cut both ways. The Polish chap who was murdered shortly after the vote immediately had his tragic death portrayed by an eager media as related to the referendum, only for it to emerge it was, allegedly, a gang of mixed race youths who did it.
I haven't seen any news reports on the racial mix of the gang that murdered the Pole, but I'm not sure how them being 'mixed race' automatically disqualifies the incident from being related to the referendum.
If we end up staying in the EU or having a departure in name only, that will foster more bitterness and resentment, and things will get worse, rather than better. If we leave, then things will gradually improve.
By that rather facile token, you'll be expecting more bitterness and resentment to be fostered in Scotland (and NI) if a definitive departure from the EU is forced through?
That said... I do think there's a danger that, as someone here wrote 'the centre cannot hold'. There's a wide spectrum of possible outcomes, many of which are entirely reasonable, but which may be deemed unacceptable by eurofederalists or backbench headbangers.
Excepting departing the customs union, I'm pretty flexible about what could work.
As an aside, there was an interesting BBC piece on the news last night about Ivory Coast and chocolate exports, though it did fail to point out we can only negotiate our own deal if we leave the customs union.
Mr. Royale, I think Juncker has since said that there should be another referendum (in other countries) because they might also vote to leave.
Well, quite.
Ultimately, if the EU cannot command the democratic consent of its populace, and respond to its concerns, it will fall. It's not exactly stable at the moment, albeit opinion polls show most Europeans still favour it, but it is also rather dicey.
I see no evidence the EU has shown any capability to reform or listen, so, right now, I think the EU will fail. Certainly in its current form.
This could take anything from 5-20 years. Unless things change.
Mr. Divvie, no. Because bitterness would be fostered by ignoring a democratic vote, not respecting it.
Amended - removed reference to the case, see below.
Mr. Jessop, I tried to be deliberately vague on that point, but if a mod would like to amend that post to remove the reference that might be best (just to be on the safe side).
I wonder if the Leavers are underplaying this victory for Open Europe a mite too much? Tory Remainia is wealthy, powerful – and angry. The Leavers are starting to look like ideologues without a care for the economy. Much can change in a year. This is just the beginning.
Although Lincolnshire is the most Brexit county in Britain, with three areas voting >70% to leave the federal superstate, Sleaford is one of the less Brexit supporting areas, at just over 60%.
However, the Lib Dems have never exceeded 20% of the vote, so the Remain vote should split between Labour and Lib Dem fairly evenly leaving it a safe Con hold.
At any rate a far cry from Richmond Park with 70% Remain and a long history of Liberal MPs and close challengers.
If anything the vote in Sleaford should be for UKIp to protest Brexit not happening fast enough.
Mr. Royale, I think Juncker has since said that there should be another referendum (in other countries) because they might also vote to leave.
Well, quite.
Ultimately, if the EU cannot command the democratic consent of its populace, and respond to its concerns, it will fall. It's not exactly stable at the moment, albeit opinion polls show most Europeans still favour it, but it is also rather dicey.
I see no evidence the EU has shown any capability to reform or listen, so, right now, I think the EU will fail. Certainly in its current form.
This could take anything from 5-20 years. Unless things change.
Personally, I think the Euro will eat the Europe Union.
Oh and btw, not to blow my own trumpet (blowing my own trumpet):
Nov 2 TOPPING: off topic I think the 6/4 LDs in Richmond is good value
Nov 2 TOPPING: LDs throwing a lot, and I mean a lot at it.
Not quite @Morris_Dancer F1 status but, modestly, not dreadful.
Well done. Wish I had listened. I knew LibDems would run it close, but was persuaded that a residual Zac personal vote would see him home.
As was I, but I was also persuaded HRC and Remain would win. So unless the Sleaford byelection offers juicy odds (result = *much* easier to predict, IMO), I'll pass for the moment ...
Luckily my big win on Leave winning the referendum is sustaining me through POTUS and by-elections. I'm staying out of Sleaford, nothing to see here, move along.
By 'juicy' odds I mean seriously wrong, up to 1.5; e.g., Tory seats in General Election 2015.
But maybe I should stick to betting my GE-2015 winnings on local seats that I know in GE-2020, not on faraway Lincs.!
That is serious trolling. And also serious confirmation bias. Thing is that virtually all the Brits that Verhofstadht will talk to (apart from DeExEU) will be Remainers reinforcing the EU view that Brexit is stupid/disastrous and the narrow victory Leave achieved was by deception.
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
Agree with that.
The EU's response to our vote does not fill me with confidence. There seems to be no acknowledgement that the product they're selling is undesirable to many people.
That's a shame for them, as I doubt it's saleable in the long term to populations of some other EU countries.
They need to start listening.
Agreed. The conclusion I reached that the EU could not and would not listen to democratic votes for reform was one of my key reasons for leaving. The pull was the long-term economic opportunities i saw for an independent UK as well as the political renewal.
I am frustrated that the debate got so out-of-hand (and I didn't exactly help at times) but I don't think I could have brought myself to vote to Remain in this organisation under any circumstances, even if it were overwhelmingly in my immediate economic interests.
Fair enough. But people need to understand there's an equivalent group who support staying in the EU because it's the right thing to do. It sounds like David L's daughter is in this group. The assumption that Remainers are more reluctant than Leavers is a false one, I think. They're still pretty angry with Brexit. (Personally I am motivated by what's in the country's interest LOL and don't really take an ideological position one way or the other)
Mr Verhofstadt's comments are inappropriate for an elected official of an organisation that still contains Britain but they don't actually matter. They can only offend us but we're leaving anyway. Nobody else cares. The EU can hardly trash the negotiations and the relationship when it we've already done it ourselves.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Not all Leavers were intolerant xenophobes, but all intolereant xenophobes were Leavers. .
A cute phrase but untrue. I personally know two intolerant xenophobes who said they voted remain, albeit hardly for positive reasons - they were sure when we leave the eu will screw us over more than we can deal with.
Mr. Jobabob, that's possible but it could mean a continuing/deepening of a dividing line between those who benefit from the status quo and those who don't.
If we could get rid of the utterly useless Corbyn and his band on idiot followers, Olney's victory could be the start of a very wise realignment. Labour members were campaigning for the Liberals yesterday – the utterly pathetic Corbyn has no control over the sensible wing of his party.
So Open vs Closed:
Open gets the brightest and best of Britain, from the Cameroons to the old Tory Left to the Blairites to the Orange Bookers to the Greens to the Brownites to the Beveridge Group, the City, big business and the TUC.
Closed gets the Red BNP knuckledraggers (Speedy, Sandy and their acolytes), the actual BNP, the Far Left, Ukip and the three clowns of the apocalypse.
I wonder if the Leavers are underplaying this victory for Open Europe a mite too much? Tory Remainia is wealthy, powerful – and angry. The Leavers are starting to look like ideologues without a care for the economy. Much can change in a year. This is just the beginning.
Great victory for Open last night. Bravo.
Glad to see you back Bobajob. Spent your Trump winnings yet?
Although Lincolnshire is the most Brexit county in Britain, with three areas voting >70% to leave the federal superstate, Sleaford is one of the less Brexit supporting areas, at just over 60%.
However, the Lib Dems have never exceeded 20% of the vote, so the Remain vote should split between Labour and Lib Dem fairly evenly leaving it a safe Con hold.
At any rate a far cry from Richmond Park with 70% Remain and a long history of Liberal MPs and close challengers.
If anything the vote in Sleaford should be for UKIp to protest Brexit not happening fast enough.
UKIP were a close third to Labour last time, will they come second or even win?
"Under Dave's watch the Tories gain and hold Richmond Park by 23k.
On Mrs May's watch the Tories don't get a single vote in Richmond Park"
By-election, not comparable.
The Tories can hope to gain swathes of Labour seats at the next election for Labour being a disaster including Brexit areas such as Wolverhampton SW, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Dewsbury, Wrexham, NE Derbyshire, and others.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
Fox jr and his girlfriend are both now inclined to the LDs too. Tuition fees are ancient history to them, but Brexit is very real.
There will be reality checks, but this is the start of a long road back for the LDa
Inclined is the problem. Lots of peop,e were inclined LD until one major decision they didn't like and they didn't even weight to see if the cost woukd be worth it.
I wonder if the Leavers are underplaying this victory for Open Europe a mite too much? Tory Remainia is wealthy, powerful – and angry. The Leavers are starting to look like ideologues without a care for the economy. Much can change in a year. This is just the beginning.
Great victory for Open last night. Bravo.
Glad to see you back Bobajob. Spent your Trump winnings yet?
Cheers sir. Yes, I have lavished them some new clothing for Lady Ajob. I very nearly sloshed some more on Olney last night but didn't think I could possibly win another longshot bet this year. More fool me. Looking forward to 2017, bizarrely.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
If we could get rid of the utterly useless Corbyn and his band on idiot followers, Olney's victory could be the start of a very wise realignment. Labour members were campaigning for the Liberals yesterday – the utterly pathetic Corbyn has no control over the sensible wing of his party.
So Open vs Closed:
Open gets the brightest and best of Britain, from the Cameroons to the old Tory Left to the Blairites to the Orange Bookers to the Greens to the Brownites to the Beveridge Group, the City, big business and the TUC.
Closed gets the Red BNP knuckledraggers (Speedy, Sandy and their acolytes), the actual BNP, the Far Left, Ukip and the three clowns of the apocalypse.
Bring on the good fight.
"Red BNP knuckledraggers" - never been described as that before.
That is serious trolling. And also serious confirmation bias. Thing is that virtually all the Brits that Verhofstadht will talk to (apart from DeExEU) will be Remainers reinforcing the EU view that Brexit is stupid/disastrous and the narrow victory Leave achieved was by deception.
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
Agree with that.
The EU's response to our vote does not fill me with confidence. There seems to be no acknowledgement that the product they're selling is undesirable to many people.
That's a shame for them, as I doubt it's saleable in the long term to populations of some other EU countries.
They need to start listening.
Agreed. The conclusion I reached that the EU could not and would not listen to democratic votes for reform was one of my key reasons for leaving. The pull was the long-term economic opportunities i saw for an independent UK as well as the political renewal.
I am frustrated that the debate got so out-of-hand (and I didn't exactly help at times) but I don't think I could have brought myself to vote to Remain in this organisation under any circumstances, even if it were overwhelmingly in my immediate economic interests.
Fair enough. But people need to understand there's an equivalent group who support staying in the EU because it's the right thing to do. It sounds like David L's daughter is in this group. The assumption that Remainers are more reluctant than Leavers is a false one, I think. They're still pretty angry with Brexit. (Personally I am motivated by what's in the country's interest LOL and don't really take an ideological position one way or the other)
Mr Verhofstadt's comments are inappropriate for an elected official of an organisation that still contains Britain but they don't actually matter. They can only offend us but we're leaving anyway. Nobody else cares. The EU can hardly trash the negotiations and the relationship when it we've already done it ourselves.
"Under Dave's watch the Tories gain and hold Richmond Park by 23k.
On Mrs May's watch the Tories don't get a single vote in Richmond Park"
By-election, not comparable.
The Tories can hope to gain swathes of Labour seats at the next election for Labour being a disaster including Brexit areas such as Wolverhampton SW, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Dewsbury, Wrexham, NE Derbyshire, and others.
What do you reckon to Pennsylvania suddenly "finding" 18,000 Hillary NET votes in Philadelphia ?
For POTUS 2020 time to start compiling a list of states that report dodgily late results in case its close again.
"UKIP were a close third to Labour last time, will they come second or even win?"
UKIP didn't do that well in Sleaford in 2015, they got 15.7%, which is only barely above average (they won 14.1% across England).
Had the by-election been called in neighbouring Appalachian Trumpland, sorry Boston & Skegness, where UKIP scored 34% they might have a chance.
But Sleaford is a proper Tory shire, in effect (Boston & Skegness was marginal in 1997 and 2001, but Labour have never come close to winning Sleaford).
So Farron is deeming this result as "the fight back of the 48%".
I'm amazed politicians haven't yet grasped that results in London are rarely indicative of the wider country.
I'm sure they have grasped that. But they need to inspire the troops as they work on the rest.
Quite right. Plus the Red BNP brigade bizarrely quite like Corbyn (or some of them do) so Labour Leave seats up north are still safe-ish and would never vote Tory in any case.
QT last night was revealing. Lots of anti-immigrant sentiment in an area where – guess what – there are very few immigrants. 96% of Wakefielders are white. Only 2.5% were born outside the UK. So what are they so scared of? This fear of an non-present outsider is common to many Labour Leave places.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
They've never answered it before, and I don't think they'll start. The practical answer most likely depends on the parliamentary arithmetic; The chances that they'll have kingmaker power are quite small. In the unlikely event that they do have kingmaker power, they'll want to keep their options open and negotiate the best deal they can.
Clegg answered it before 2010 i.e. 'we're prepared to talk to both but the party with most votes gets first chance'. That clearly indicated a willingness to support either Brown or Cameron. Farron will need to answer whether he would be prepared - given an acceptable policy deal to his party - to (1) put Corbyn in No 10; (2) keep May in No 10. Those are the only options as things stand.
No, Clegg answered it with a masterpiece of vagueness, namely that he made a commitment to talk to the parties. In practice it seemed like for a deal with Lab to be on the cards they'd have to get rid of Brown, but in any case they didn't have the numbers.
The vagueness was surely necessary. If you're not willing to talk to one side then in a hung parliament situation you're already in a form of alliance with the other, and while it was provably so that More of the LDs preferred a deal with labour, though the numbers in the end made that difficult, they woukd have lost votes ruling out working the Tories, i fir one voted LD and was very annoyed by the commentariat declaring the LDs had betrayed my vote by going into cialition.
. I doubt the situation will arise again anytime soon, but could they be so vague again, given last time, onkybtheyd say they'd be much stricter on what they'd give up for a deal? Woukd they explicitly say they'd prefer labour, but it depends on what they are offered as to what would be best for the country?
the Polish man who was killed was seized upon gleefully by the media, almost as gleefully as the murder of Jo Cox.
Same thing happens in the US, any titbits of Trump supporters being obnoxious are seized upon while ignoring any contrary evidence.
Quite. What I find most amusing is the outrage about Fox. They're the only TV network that supports a rightish agenda - all the rest are pro-liberal - as can be seen by their coverage of Team Hillary and Obama. And of course the private dinners at Podesta's own house.
Having a subscription cable channel who disagrees is apparently APPALLING whilst all the rest are promoting the liberal agenda and that's fine and dandy.
It's beyond daft, and frankly I don't bother with anyone who resorts to the Fox argument to make a point.
If we could get rid of the utterly useless Corbyn and his band on idiot followers, Olney's victory could be the start of a very wise realignment. Labour members were campaigning for the Liberals yesterday – the utterly pathetic Corbyn has no control over the sensible wing of his party.
So Open vs Closed:
Open gets the brightest and best of Britain, from the Cameroons to the old Tory Left to the Blairites to the Orange Bookers to the Greens to the Brownites to the Beveridge Group, the City, big business and the TUC.
Closed gets the Red BNP knuckledraggers (Speedy, Sandy and their acolytes), the actual BNP, the Far Left, Ukip and the three clowns of the apocalypse.
Bring on the good fight.
"Red BNP knuckledraggers" - never been described as that before.
How is that £350m a week for the NHS that you promised the natives working out for you?
I wonder if the Leavers are underplaying this victory for Open Europe a mite too much? Tory Remainia is wealthy, powerful – and angry. The Leavers are starting to look like ideologues without a care for the economy. Much can change in a year. This is just the beginning.
Great victory for Open last night. Bravo.
Glad to see you back Bobajob. Spent your Trump winnings yet?
Cheers sir. Yes, I have lavished them some new clothing for Lady Ajob. I very nearly sloshed some more on Olney last night but didn't think I could possibly win another longshot bet this year. More fool me. Looking forward to 2017, bizarrely.
Hope all good in your world.
Very nice, I hope she enjoys her new clothes!
The world is a strange place, but my little corner is looking up. Just completed the purchase of my Zurich house and sold my Shepherds Bush place for a pretty huge profit a couple of weeks back.
Well done to the Lib Dems. I think some people are getting a little bit carried with a LD revival though. There are very few of their target seats which were so strongly for remain. The seats I think they could win with a strongly anti-Brexit message are:
Twickenham (c maj - 2,000; 69% remain) Kingston (c maj - 2,800; 62% remain) Cheltenham (c maj - 6,500; 56% remain) Bath (c maj - 3,800; 58% remain in BANES (probably higher in Bath city)) Winchester (c maj - 17,000; 59% remain in the district (probably higher in Winchester city)) OXWAB (c maj - 9,500; 72% Oxford; 57% Vale of White Horse) Lewes (c maj - 1,100; 52% remain) Cheadle (c maj - 6,500; Stockport borough 53% remain but likely higher here as Stockport town probably voted to leave) Hazel Grove (c maj - 6,600; as above) St Albans (c maj -12,700 over Lab, 15,300 over LD; 63% remain) Cambridge (Lab maj -599; 74% remain)
I would also expect the LDs to get close in S Cambs and Guildford
However, on the other side of the ledger a strongly anti-Brexit message could cost them 2 seats:
Carshalton (LD maj 1,500; Sutton 54% leave) North Norfolk (LD maj 4,000; 59% leave)
I can also see the LDs losing ground in a number of other target seats such as Eastbourne, Torbay, Burnley, Yeovil, Portsmouth S and North Devon, which all voted strongly for leave
I think when early results are clear, but tight (0.5%? maybe) you would not want to bet at very short odds, because of the risk of an early error. Not 1.01, at any rate. Also note that states that went the right way for the loser (Hillary) are less at risk of being recounted, so that 2,500 vote margin she won by there is much safer than Pennyslvania or wherever.
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
A vote on the deal is stupid. Either we vote yes to the deal, and leave, or we vote no to the deal, and leave on even worse terms.
That ship sailed when Cameron promised a referendum but only with two options
If we are going to leave, we should have some mechanism to gain a mandate for whether to take a softer deal, our go full WTO hard as nails Brexit. Lance the boil. Otherwise someone will shout betrayal.
There is one way. A ge. A month ago I'd have said in a ge the Tories woukd campaign for hard, UKIP for apocalyptically hard, labour soft, LDs and green reverse Brexit, and labour for soft.
As it is, we'll just have the phony period ongoing, with remoAners looking for opportunities and hardcore brexiteers using the word betrayal so much you'd think they have a verbal tic.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
They've never answered it before, and I don't think they'll start. The practical answer most likely depends on the parliamentary arithmetic; The chances that they'll have kingmaker power are quite small. In the unlikely event that they do have kingmaker power, they'll want to keep their options open and negotiate the best deal they can.
Clegg answered it before 2010 i.e. 'we're prepared to talk to both but the party with most votes gets first chance'. That clearly indicated a willingness to support either Brown or Cameron. Farron will need to answer whether he would be prepared - given an acceptable policy deal to his party - to (1) put Corbyn in No 10; (2) keep May in No 10. Those are the only options as things stand.
No, Clegg answered it with a masterpiece of vagueness, namely that he made a commitment to talk to the parties. In practice it seemed like for a deal with Lab to be on the cards they'd have to get rid of Brown, but in any case they didn't have the numbers.
The vagueness was surely necessary. If you're not willing to talk to one side then in a hung parliament situation you're already in a form of alliance with the other, and while it was provably so that More of the LDs preferred a deal with labour, though the numbers in the end made that difficult, they woukd have lost votes ruling out working the Tories, i fir one voted LD and was very annoyed by the commentariat declaring the LDs had betrayed my vote by going into cialition.
. I doubt the situation will arise again anytime soon, but could they be so vague again, given last time, onkybtheyd say they'd be much stricter on what they'd give up for a deal? Woukd they explicitly say they'd prefer labour, but it depends on what they are offered as to what would be best for the country?
Well, they might conceivably be more explicit about red lines. Obviously this closes off options, but it also potentially strengthens them in negotiations when it comes to getting those things. I think they're generally better refusing to commit, though. The problem is that once they say No Deal Without X, people are then going to say, what about Y and Z?
I wonder if the Leavers are underplaying this victory for Open Europe a mite too much? Tory Remainia is wealthy, powerful – and angry. The Leavers are starting to look like ideologues without a care for the economy. Much can change in a year. This is just the beginning.
Great victory for Open last night. Bravo.
Glad to see you back Bobajob. Spent your Trump winnings yet?
Cheers sir. Yes, I have lavished them some new clothing for Lady Ajob. I very nearly sloshed some more on Olney last night but didn't think I could possibly win another longshot bet this year. More fool me. Looking forward to 2017, bizarrely.
Hope all good in your world.
Very nice, I hope she enjoys her new clothes!
The world is a strange place, but my little corner is looking up. Just completed the purchase of my Zurich house and sold my Shepherds Bush place for a pretty huge profit a couple of weeks back.
Good for you. I remember you deliberating when you were buying it. Glad you took the plunge sir.
That said... I do think there's a danger that, as someone here wrote 'the centre cannot hold'. There's a wide spectrum of possible outcomes, many of which are entirely reasonable, but which may be deemed unacceptable by eurofederalists or backbench headbangers.
Excepting departing the customs union, I'm pretty flexible about what could work.
As an aside, there was an interesting BBC piece on the news last night about Ivory Coast and chocolate exports, though it did fail to point out we can only negotiate our own deal if we leave the customs union.
The only chocolate I remember seeing on sale in Africa generally came from Romania, the Romanians having apparently solved the problem of it melting before anyone bought it by putting hardly any chocolate into it in the first place.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Not all Leavers were intolerant xenophobes, but all intolereant xenophobes were Leavers.
Leave contained several subsets, including those expecting £350m extra per week for the NHS. Good people, albeit gullible.
The intolerance of some Europhiles and their contempt for their own country was also something to see. For me Brexit was something that sensible people could easily come to differing conclusions on with quite strong arguments on both sides. The extremists of both sides had very little of value to add.
I do not have contempt for my country, any more than you have for Scotland.
The thought that "No true Scot opposes independence" is very offensive to Unionist Scots, and the parallel with Britain in Europe is apposite. Calling Remainers unpatriotic is equally offensive, we just believe in a more open minded Britain.
Although Lincolnshire is the most Brexit county in Britain, with three areas voting >70% to leave the federal superstate, Sleaford is one of the less Brexit supporting areas, at just over 60%.
However, the Lib Dems have never exceeded 20% of the vote, so the Remain vote should split between Labour and Lib Dem fairly evenly leaving it a safe Con hold.
At any rate a far cry from Richmond Park with 70% Remain and a long history of Liberal MPs and close challengers.
If anything the vote in Sleaford should be for UKIp to protest Brexit not happening fast enough.
UKIP were a close third to Labour last time, will they come second or even win?
Nope , they are struggling to keep 3rd place behind Con , Labour and Marianne Overton the Independent .
"I would also expect the LDs to get close in S Cambs and Guildford"
I think this requires an overall national relevance for Lib Dems in 2020. I don't think Brexit will necessarily provide that any more, 4 years from now.
I also don't think Guildford is as hard Remain as Richmond Park was - Richmond is much more aggressively pro-cosmopolitanism, whereas Guildford I think it's more of a 'preference'. Rich commuters are different from rich Londoners.
Yes, but some of us brexiteers get very sensitive. Christ, the loonies ones talk of betrayal and enemies of the people if you suggest it will be difficult, not destined to succeed or point out the law (as currently interpreted)
Mr. Royale, I think Juncker has since said that there should be another referendum (in other countries) because they might also vote to leave.
Well, quite.
Ultimately, if the EU cannot command the democratic consent of its populace, and respond to its concerns, it will fall. It's not exactly stable at the moment, albeit opinion polls show most Europeans still favour it, but it is also rather dicey.
I see no evidence the EU has shown any capability to reform or listen, so, right now, I think the EU will fail. Certainly in its current form.
This could take anything from 5-20 years. Unless things change.
Personally, I think the Euro will eat the Europe Union.
The trouble with predicting collapses and calamities - serious point - is that even when you are right, they take much much longer to come about than you expect. Our capacity for muddling through any kind of trouble shouldn't be underestimated, and you can lose a lot of money positioning for a collapse while things apparently continue merrily in the opposite direction.
Comments
He always had the PB Tories down to a tee.
He was able to upset our old friend tim on that issue.
So his political career hasn't been entirely without merit.
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/804591732847509504
that her election vote "paved the way for Parliament to "override" the EU withdrawal referendum result."
and
"The result was a rejection of the "politics of anger and division""
I'm a Remainer, but even I can see that this is crap. If Parliament does find a way to overturn the vote it will certainly not be rejection of the politics of anger and division.
The LibDems are not just playing with fire if they try to stop the triggering of Article 50 (and I'm a frothing-at-the-mouth remainiac, and a party member). They are actually missing a huge opportunity. The Brexit vote is creating an existential crisis for the EU, which will play out over the next few years. In a strange kind of way, although we precipitated it, we've also given ourselves the opportunity to step aside for a few years during the upheavals.
If the LibDems play the long game as the pro-EU party, they can begin the (10 to 20 year) process of getting back into whatever will emerge as the new EU, and in the process rebuild themselves into a major political force over the long-term. This needs nerve, a willingness to play the long game, and a strong leader. Mmm...
That is going to heavily influence the EU negotiating strategy because they won't think we're serious, and will want to offer an awful deal with an escape route back to staying as a member with David Cameron's deal perhaps thrown in again as a sweetener.
Which tells me this has the potential to go quite wrong.
People are responsible for what they say and do, but they are not responsible for the actions of others.
The EU's response to our vote does not fill me with confidence. There seems to be no acknowledgement that the product they're selling is undesirable to many people.
That's a shame for them, as I doubt it's saleable in the long term to populations of some other EU countries.
They need to start listening.
Big change from POTUS count style !
I am frustrated that the debate got so out-of-hand (and I didn't exactly help at times) but I don't think I could have brought myself to vote to Remain in this organisation under any circumstances, even if it were overwhelmingly in my immediate economic interests.
And this does cut both ways. The Polish chap who was murdered shortly after the vote immediately had his tragic death portrayed by an eager media as related to the referendum, only for it to emerge it was, allegedly, a gang of mixed race youths who did it.
Farage has repeatedly been chased out of pubs and the like (sometimes with his family). I said at the time it was politics of Milo and Clodius. We're rather closer to that now.
If we end up staying in the EU or having a departure in name only, that will foster more bitterness and resentment, and things will get worse, rather than better. If we leave, then things will gradually improve.
Well, quite.
Against Conservatives
£152.57
£16.78
1.11
£152.57
For Conservatives
£152.57
1.1632
£152.57
1. The self indulgent Zac Goldsmith himself is a throw-back to Cameron filling the party with metropolitan posh boys!
2. Cameron holding and blowing the referendum.
3. Cameron dithering for six years over Heathrow.
Mrs May is just trying to resolve Cameron's very many failures.
Trump names Gen James 'Mad Dog' Mattis as defence secretary
On Mrs May's watch the Tories don't get a single vote in Richmond Park
The only way to achieve the founders' real objectives is to create a country/state called Europe. Where a Norwegian acknowledges an Italian as a fellow countryman. Therefore what's good for Italy is good for Norway.
The leaders realise that is not politically possible, so it is more a lumbering up/down approach a bit at a time and hoping no one notices the general direction. I find that dishonest and slightly insulting. No matter how well-intentioned they are.
But that's just my opinion.
But I will make the point that just because the gang was mixed-race, does not mean that the referendum and the febrile atmosphere around it was irrelevant. People who commit such crimes don't necessarily think logically about such things, and the atmosphere can play into existing prejudices and pressures locally.
It's easy to imagine being the child of immigrants who sees the UK as home, but can't get a job because of all these Eastern European incomers. They're the problem. They're not English. You are. And anyway, your parents were the *right sort of immigrant*.
Excepting departing the customs union, I'm pretty flexible about what could work.
As an aside, there was an interesting BBC piece on the news last night about Ivory Coast and chocolate exports, though it did fail to point out we can only negotiate our own deal if we leave the customs union.
I see no evidence the EU has shown any capability to reform or listen, so, right now, I think the EU will fail. Certainly in its current form.
This could take anything from 5-20 years. Unless things change.
Amended - removed reference to the case, see below.
Mr. Jessop, I tried to be deliberately vague on that point, but if a mod would like to amend that post to remove the reference that might be best (just to be on the safe side).
Great victory for Open last night. Bravo.
However, the Lib Dems have never exceeded 20% of the vote, so the Remain vote should split between Labour and Lib Dem fairly evenly leaving it a safe Con hold.
At any rate a far cry from Richmond Park with 70% Remain and a long history of Liberal MPs and close challengers.
If anything the vote in Sleaford should be for UKIp to protest Brexit not happening fast enough.
Excellently chronicled in the book by Ray Smith and Bing West
His "I told you so" campaign looking better every day...
Great work from Guy – what a, erm, guy!
Same thing happens in the US, any titbits of Trump supporters being obnoxious are seized upon while ignoring any contrary evidence.
But maybe I should stick to betting my GE-2015 winnings on local seats that I know in GE-2020, not on faraway Lincs.!
Genius.
Mr Verhofstadt's comments are inappropriate for an elected official of an organisation that still contains Britain but they don't actually matter. They can only offend us but we're leaving anyway. Nobody else cares. The EU can hardly trash the negotiations and the relationship when it we've already done it ourselves.
So Open vs Closed:
Open gets the brightest and best of Britain, from the Cameroons to the old Tory Left to the Blairites to the Orange Bookers to the Greens to the Brownites to the Beveridge Group, the City, big business and the TUC.
Closed gets the Red BNP knuckledraggers (Speedy, Sandy and their acolytes), the actual BNP, the Far Left, Ukip and the three clowns of the apocalypse.
Bring on the good fight.
Oh, and adding to my nonsense of last night on PC tube stations:
Hummusmith
BAME Multi-faith prayer room
On Mrs May's watch the Tories don't get a single vote in Richmond Park"
By-election, not comparable.
The Tories can hope to gain swathes of Labour seats at the next election for Labour being a disaster including Brexit areas such as Wolverhampton SW, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Barrow & Furness, Dewsbury, Wrexham, NE Derbyshire, and others.
Hope all good in your world.
That is genius.
Both lost two elections in the same year
For POTUS 2020 time to start compiling a list of states that report dodgily late results in case its close again.
UKIP didn't do that well in Sleaford in 2015, they got 15.7%, which is only barely above average (they won 14.1% across England).
Had the by-election been called in neighbouring Appalachian Trumpland, sorry Boston & Skegness, where UKIP scored 34% they might have a chance.
But Sleaford is a proper Tory shire, in effect (Boston & Skegness was marginal in 1997 and 2001, but Labour have never come close to winning Sleaford).
QT last night was revealing. Lots of anti-immigrant sentiment in an area where – guess what – there are very few immigrants. 96% of Wakefielders are white. Only 2.5% were born outside the UK. So what are they so scared of? This fear of an non-present outsider is common to many Labour Leave places.
. I doubt the situation will arise again anytime soon, but could they be so vague again, given last time, onkybtheyd say they'd be much stricter on what they'd give up for a deal? Woukd they explicitly say they'd prefer labour, but it depends on what they are offered as to what would be best for the country?
Having a subscription cable channel who disagrees is apparently APPALLING whilst all the rest are promoting the liberal agenda and that's fine and dandy.
It's beyond daft, and frankly I don't bother with anyone who resorts to the Fox argument to make a point.
The world is a strange place, but my little corner is looking up. Just completed the purchase of my Zurich house and sold my Shepherds Bush place for a pretty huge profit a couple of weeks back.
Twickenham (c maj - 2,000; 69% remain)
Kingston (c maj - 2,800; 62% remain)
Cheltenham (c maj - 6,500; 56% remain)
Bath (c maj - 3,800; 58% remain in BANES (probably higher in Bath city))
Winchester (c maj - 17,000; 59% remain in the district (probably higher in Winchester city))
OXWAB (c maj - 9,500; 72% Oxford; 57% Vale of White Horse)
Lewes (c maj - 1,100; 52% remain)
Cheadle (c maj - 6,500; Stockport borough 53% remain but likely higher here as Stockport town probably voted to leave)
Hazel Grove (c maj - 6,600; as above)
St Albans (c maj -12,700 over Lab, 15,300 over LD; 63% remain)
Cambridge (Lab maj -599; 74% remain)
I would also expect the LDs to get close in S Cambs and Guildford
However, on the other side of the ledger a strongly anti-Brexit message could cost them 2 seats:
Carshalton (LD maj 1,500; Sutton 54% leave)
North Norfolk (LD maj 4,000; 59% leave)
I can also see the LDs losing ground in a number of other target seats such as Eastbourne, Torbay, Burnley, Yeovil, Portsmouth S and North Devon, which all voted strongly for leave
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/804407177368715265 !
For POTUS 2020 time to start compiling a list of states that report dodgily late results in case its close again."
As I understand it there is a small but real risk of a recount affecting results, and a bigger risk of transcribing errors during the counting.
Something like 0.2% is a normal 'recount' error (although it could go eitherway) http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/
I think when early results are clear, but tight (0.5%? maybe) you would not want to bet at very short odds, because of the risk of an early error. Not 1.01, at any rate. Also note that states that went the right way for the loser (Hillary) are less at risk of being recounted, so that 2,500 vote margin she won by there is much safer than Pennyslvania or wherever.
As it is, we'll just have the phony period ongoing, with remoAners looking for opportunities and hardcore brexiteers using the word betrayal so much you'd think they have a verbal tic.
I think this requires an overall national relevance for Lib Dems in 2020. I don't think Brexit will necessarily provide that any more, 4 years from now.
I also don't think Guildford is as hard Remain as Richmond Park was - Richmond is much more aggressively pro-cosmopolitanism, whereas Guildford I think it's more of a 'preference'. Rich commuters are different from rich Londoners.
Edit/case study: Uk housing market