On topic, how sorry is May going to be in practice about this result?
It gives a timely boost to the Liberal Democrats as the Labour right disintegrates;
It removes a potentially awkward critic of the government;
It also removes one of the more toxic members of her party from the Commons and allows her to distance herself from his disastrous campaign for Mayor;
It will discourage other defections;
It also eases the likelihood her party will demand an early election.
As against that, to quote Hacker, PMs never lose seats if they can help it, and it certainly reinforces the narrative that the Tories will struggle in London and possibly the wider suburban south east.
I think however, contra TSE, that she was right not to field a candidate that would potentially have come third. The story this morning is orange revival not blue humiliation, with the odd mention of the Jezziah's pathetic performance.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
I suspect also it may help that they can plausibly say after 2015 that they don't want a coalition with either May or the posh boy, but would offer C+S to the largest party. That would allow them to pick up protest votes on both flanks and hang on to them.
The Lib Dems' biggest handicap in national politics has been their irrelevance. This by-election win should give them the chance to get voters to take a fresh look at them. So the significance of this by-election victory depends largely on what's they say and do now.
There's an aching void in British politics, with centrist Remainers having no obvious abode. The Lib Dems now have the chance to make the case for their votes.
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surely
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.
Mrs May is frit.
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representative
A great result for the lib dems. In a way, happy with this as couldnt stand Goldsmith.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)
Both Olney and Zac were campaigning against Heathrow, so it's probably not that.
The mayoral campaign probably played into it a little, but mainly it'll be about the EU. AFAICR Zac was not just a leaver but a hard Brexiter.
His platform was also somewhat odd: "My constituents are against Heathrow, and therefore I'm against Heathrow. But my constituents are for remaining, and I'm for leaving."
Well, he's left. Good riddance.
Everybody today saying how much they disliked Zac. Previously he was described as a popular MP with a good personal vote.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Yes, there will. The Tories will split, horrifically, if it doesn't happen, and Labour would have some kind of psychosis.
There will be a Brexit, but it will be fudged.
Seems probable. More than yesterday. Hard Brexit is the default and has the passion, but there was a good case for soft Brexit given the 52 48 vote, but internally I'm not sure the Tories were willing to push for it, for fear of flouncing from the hardcore. But now others can point to this as an indication, and a warning they cannot just do anything and force an early ge if needed. But it will still happen, the politics of both parties demands it. This was still a surprise, and ain't no one in government going to propose a vote to reverse Brexit, even assuming the party survived the suggestion.
Biggest worry for fans of softer brexits might be that the LDs go too hard for remoaning instead, allowing hard brexiteers to regain their footing.
Olney mentioned opposing hard Brexit then moments later said that she would try to block Brexit. The Lib Dems will waste valuable time trying to make a case for blocking Brexit when they really should be pushing for an EFTA & EEA type arrangement.
I think however, contra TSE, that she was right not to field a candidate that would potentially have come third. The story this morning is orange revival not blue humiliation, with the odd mention of the Jezziah's pathetic performance.
Yup, not only would her guy have come third, he and Zac combined would probably have polled a bit higher than the LibDem, and everyone would be blaming her for losing the seat by splitting the vote.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
That's easy, during the campaign he just needs to say he's aiming for a majority of LD MPs - chortle, then continue sniping at the Tory government after the result
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
I think that you're entitled to have a spring in your step. On the other hand, I remain to be convinced either that the Leave/Remain divide is going to define everybody's vote in a General Election; or that the Liberal Democrats can capture most of the Remain vote even if it were to do so, especially given the stubborn refusal of Labour to lay down and die (except for viewers in Scotland); or that most of the electorate will simplify the position of the entire Government as intolerant and narrow minded. If we've learnt anything from the events of this year then perhaps it's that this sort of rhetoric from left-liberals about all policy choices of which they disapprove repels more voters than it attracts?
I suspect also it may help that they can plausibly say after 2015 that they don't want a coalition with either May or the posh boy, but would offer C+S to the largest party. That would allow them to pick up protest votes on both flanks and hang on to them.
The Liberal Democrats are a soft Left party under Farron, and such a position of equidistance would merely confirm the suspicion of the Yellow Tory voters that a vote for Farron is (potentially, even probably) a vote for a Corbyn minority Government, propped up by SNP and minor parties, should such a thing prove mathematically possible. One can only conclude that this will help to maintain a low ceiling to their potential support nationally in the short to medium term.
So Farron is deeming this result as "the fight back of the 48%".
I'm amazed politicians haven't yet grasped that results in London are rarely indicative of the wider country.
The 48% were not just in London.
There's a good chance that May will end up in the same situation as Major: a razor-thin majority and a party that is in open revolt. It might even be some of the very same faces causing the revolt.
Her saving grace is that she's facing Corbyn rather than Blair.
Oh, and I feel a little sorry for Wolmar. He's a fairly knowledgeable guy, but it seems he's politically inept. In that, he's a prefect fit for Corbyn's Labour party ....
Very good result for the Lib Dems, but let's not get carried away - mid term bye-elections are a useful tool for holding the government to account- and as for the loser, couldn't have happened to a more deserving posh boy.....
Good grief. Last night saw a 12% increase in the number of LD MPs in parliament.
Trying to play down a LD surge is surely a banning offence!
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
That's easy, during the campaign he just needs to say he's aiming for a majority of LD MPs - chortle, then continue sniping at the Tory government after the result
Farron will never support the Tories, he refused to join the last Coalition.
May does not have the political nouce to run a minority government. She will be the Tory Gordon Brown.
Very good result for the Lib Dems, but let's not get carried away - mid term bye-elections are a useful tool for holding the government to account- and as for the loser, couldn't have happened to a more deserving posh boy.....
Good grief. Last night saw a 12% increase in the number of LD MPs in parliament.
Trying to play down a LD surge is surely a banning offence!
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surely
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.
Mrs May is frit.
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representative
A great result for the lib dems. In a way, happy with this as couldnt stand Goldsmith.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)
Both Olney and Zac were campaigning against Heathrow, so it's probably not that.
The mayoral campaign probably played into it a little, but mainly it'll be about the EU. AFAICR Zac was not just a leaver but a hard Brexiter.
His platform was also somewhat odd: "My constituents are against Heathrow, and therefore I'm against Heathrow. But my constituents are for remaining, and I'm for leaving."
Well, he's left. Good riddance.
Everybody today saying how much they disliked Zac. Previously he was described as a popular MP with a good personal vote.
I asked twice on here if anyone wanted Zac to win. I got one positive reply.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
They've never answered it before, and I don't think they'll start. The practical answer most likely depends on the parliamentary arithmetic; The chances that they'll have kingmaker power are quite small. In the unlikely event that they do have kingmaker power, they'll want to keep their options open and negotiate the best deal they can.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
No, the Leave approach is that Olney has won and must become an MP, and after she has people who don't like it can campaign to replace her in future.
No, let's take the Leave Remain approach. Lib Dems Join won in 1973, that's the end of it, no second election referendum in 2016, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond ParkThe U.K. is yellowpart of the EU until the end of time regardless of anything else
Corrected for you
Edited extra bit - it's really difficult getting the codes right when using an ipad
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
No, let's take the Leave<\s> Remain approach. Lib Dems<\s> Join won in 1973, that's the end of it, no second election<\s> referendum in 2016, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park<\s>The U.K. is yellow<\s>part of the EU until the end of time regardless of anything else
The Lib Dems' biggest handicap in national politics has been their irrelevance. This by-election win should give them the chance to get voters to take a fresh look at them. So the significance of this by-election victory depends largely on what's they say and do now.
There's an aching void in British politics, with centrist Remainers having no obvious abode. The Lib Dems now have the chance to make the case for their votes.
I personally can't abide him but if I were Farron I'd milk this for all it's worth.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
So Farron is deeming this result as "the fight back of the 48%".
I'm amazed politicians haven't yet grasped that results in London are rarely indicative of the wider country.
The 48% were not just in London.
There's a good chance that May will end up in the same situation as Major: a razor-thin majority and a party that is in open revolt. It might even be some of the very same faces causing the revolt.
Her saving grace is that she's facing Corbyn rather than Blair.
Oh, and I feel a little sorry for Wolmar. He's a fairly knowledgeable guy, but it seems he's politically inept. In that, he's a prefect fit for Corbyn's Labour party ....
His book about the history of the railways is very good, except where he lets his politics seep in about trade unions, and it ends with a full-on rant on privatisation.
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
A vote on the deal is stupid. Either we vote yes to the deal, and leave, or we vote no to the deal, and leave on even worse terms.
Zac has mirrored Cammo in career regression in 2016.....
Not been a great year for Old Etonian Tories, has it, what with Boris fluffing his passage to the top. Just need him to be forced to resign over some silly comment or indiscretion and we've got the set.
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
A vote on the deal is stupid. Either we vote yes to the deal, and leave, or we vote no to the deal, and leave on even worse terms.
That ship sailed when Cameron promised a referendum but only with two options
If we are going to leave, we should have some mechanism to gain a mandate for whether to take a softer deal, our go full WTO hard as nails Brexit. Lance the boil. Otherwise someone will shout betrayal.
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surely
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.
Mrs May is frit.
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representative
A great result for the lib dems. In a way, happy with this as couldnt stand Goldsmith.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)
Oh be serious, one issue drove this result and it wasn't airport expansion.
Great result on many levels as far as I am concerned. Congrats to Barnesian and others who worked hard for it.
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Referenda are blunt instruments. Do you want to Leave the EU, well yes (marginally), but you haven't asked whether you want a hard or soft Brexit. The devil is in the detail and referenda don't do detail.
It's gonna be Soft Soft Brexit. Everything, including electoral politics, now points that way.
There wont be even a Brexit.
Yes, there will. The Tories will split, horrifically, if it doesn't happen, and Labour would have some kind of psychosis.
There will be a Brexit, but it will be fudged.
Seems probable. More than yesterday. Hard Brexit is the default and has the passion, but there was a good case for soft Brexit given the 52 48 vote, but internally I'm not sure the Tories were willing to push for it, for fear of flouncing from the hardcore. But now others can point to this as an indication, and a warning they cannot just do anything and force an early ge if needed. But it will still happen, the politics of both parties demands it. This was still a surprise, and ain't no one in government going to propose a vote to reverse Brexit, even assuming the party survived the suggestion.
Biggest worry for fans of softer brexits might be that the LDs go too hard for remoaning instead, allowing hard brexiteers to regain their footing.
Olney mentioned opposing hard Brexit then moments later said that she would try to block Brexit. The Lib Dems will waste valuable time trying to make a case for blocking Brexit when they really should be pushing for an EFTA & EEA type arrangement.
Didn't she stand on a platform of doing that though?
To be fair, if Richmond solidly voted Remain and she just won a by-election on that basis then she has a electoral mandate to do that.
Of course, that does not apply to a clear majority of MPs.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
Perhaps Theresa May will take this to mean Richmonders ain't that bothered about Heathrow Expansion.
Or Zac.
Sadly, anti-Heathrow candidates got somewhere around 95% of the vote.
The Lib Dems campaigned on Brexit, not Heathrow, and that was the reason the by-election was held in the first place.
I'm not sure that your original thought follows: as both were against Heathrow the anti-Heathrow crowd could vote for either and still have their wishes in that regard represented. Therefore it became more about the other main difference between the candidates: Brexit.
But also in Olney, they not only have a candidate who is against Heathrow expansion, her party is also firmly against it. Zac was still, in reality if not in name, a Conservative. The party going ahead with expansion.
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
A vote on the deal is stupid. Either we vote yes to the deal, and leave, or we vote no to the deal, and leave on even worse terms.
That ship sailed when Cameron promised a referendum but only with two options
If we are going to leave, we should have some mechanism to gain a mandate for whether to take a softer deal, our go full WTO hard as nails Brexit. Lance the boil. Otherwise someone will shout betrayal.
Surely any negotiated deal will be better than most favourable nations rules, otherwise what would be the point negotiating?
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
I think that you're entitled to have a spring in your step. On the other hand, I remain to be convinced either that the Leave/Remain divide is going to define everybody's vote in a General Election; or that the Liberal Democrats can capture most of the Remain vote even if it were to do so, especially given the stubborn refusal of Labour to lay down and die (except for viewers in Scotland); or that most of the electorate will simplify the position of the entire Government as intolerant and narrow minded. If we've learnt anything from the events of this year then perhaps it's that this sort of rhetoric from left-liberals about all policy choices of which they disapprove repels more voters than it attracts?
I suspect also it may help that they can plausibly say after 2015 that they don't want a coalition with either May or the posh boy, but would offer C+S to the largest party. That would allow them to pick up protest votes on both flanks and hang on to them.
The Liberal Democrats are a soft Left party under Farron, and such a position of equidistance would merely confirm the suspicion of the Yellow Tory voters that a vote for Farron is (potentially, even probably) a vote for a Corbyn minority Government, propped up by SNP and minor parties, should such a thing prove mathematically possible. One can only conclude that this will help to maintain a low ceiling to their potential support nationally in the short to medium term.
The LDs will be fighting the Tories in different seats to Corbynite Labour. A lot of seats in suburban, shire and southern Britain know who tbeir Tory opposition is.
The other factor is the return of tactical anti-Tory voting, likely to be highly significant again.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
They've never answered it before, and I don't think they'll start. The practical answer most likely depends on the parliamentary arithmetic; The chances that they'll have kingmaker power are quite small. In the unlikely event that they do have kingmaker power, they'll want to keep their options open and negotiate the best deal they can.
Clegg answered it before 2010 i.e. 'we're prepared to talk to both but the party with most votes gets first chance'. That clearly indicated a willingness to support either Brown or Cameron. Farron will need to answer whether he would be prepared - given an acceptable policy deal to his party - to (1) put Corbyn in No 10; (2) keep May in No 10. Those are the only options as things stand.
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surely
Well Mrs May chickened out by failing to put up a candidate. You couldn't see Mrs Thatcher doing that.
Mrs May is frit.
I don't see how she could have done anything else! As an independent, Goldberg would have voted Tory for anything other than Heathrow and was a Brexiteer. May couldn't ask for more for a parliamentary representative
A great result for the lib dems. In a way, happy with this as couldnt stand Goldsmith.
Not sure what this was a vote on exactly though. Was it about Heathrow, or about Zac terrible London mayoralty campaign. Or was it about Brexit? (I'm sure people will use to suit their own agenda)
Both Olney and Zac were campaigning against Heathrow, so it's probably not that.
The mayoral campaign probably played into it a little, but mainly it'll be about the EU. AFAICR Zac was not just a leaver but a hard Brexiter.
His platform was also somewhat odd: "My constituents are against Heathrow, and therefore I'm against Heathrow. But my constituents are for remaining, and I'm for leaving."
Well, he's left. Good riddance.
Everybody today saying how much they disliked Zac. Previously he was described as a popular MP with a good personal vote.
As that great commentator Nelson Munt would say: HA HA!
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Referenda are blunt instruments. Do you want to Leave the EU, well yes (marginally), but you haven't asked whether you want a hard or soft Brexit. The devil is in the detail and referenda don't do detail.
"Would you like a thousand pounds?" "Yes" "Great, it's a deal. I'll just need your kidneys" "Wait, what?" "Hey, you made your choice"
Very good result for the Lib Dems, but let's not get carried away - mid term bye-elections are a useful tool for holding the government to account- and as for the loser, couldn't have happened to a more deserving posh boy.....
Good grief. Last night saw a 12% increase in the number of LD MPs in parliament.
Trying to play down a LD surge is surely a banning offence!
If you want a really impressive percentage, think about the proportional increase in the number of female Lib Dem MPs - it's infinite!
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
She would probably swap a score (or a few score) of Labour seats for a baker's dozen of Lib Dem seats. But we will never know till we reach a general election just how the UK political landscape has really changed.
I'd say the odds of GE2017 have just nodged up again a smidgen, but I think May will still do what she thinks is playing it safe (bearing in mind she thinks her domestic policy mandate derives from the EU Ref result as well)
Perhaps Theresa May will take this to mean Richmonders ain't that bothered about Heathrow Expansion.
Or Zac.
Sadly, anti-Heathrow candidates got somewhere around 95% of the vote.
The Lib Dems campaigned on Brexit, not Heathrow, and that was the reason the by-election was held in the first place.
I'm not sure that your original thought follows: as both were against Heathrow the anti-Heathrow crowd could vote for either and still have their wishes in that regard represented. Therefore it became more about the other main difference between the candidates: Brexit.
But also in Olney, they not only have a candidate who is against Heathrow expansion, her party is also firmly against it. Zac was still, in reality if not in name, a Conservative. The party going ahead with expansion.
I was referring to the politics of how May might play it.
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
They've never answered it before, and I don't think they'll start. The practical answer most likely depends on the parliamentary arithmetic; The chances that they'll have kingmaker power are quite small. In the unlikely event that they do have kingmaker power, they'll want to keep their options open and negotiate the best deal they can.
Clegg answered it before 2010 i.e. 'we're prepared to talk to both but the party with most votes gets first chance'. That clearly indicated a willingness to support either Brown or Cameron. Farron will need to answer whether he would be prepared - given an acceptable policy deal to his party - to (1) put Corbyn in No 10; (2) keep May in No 10. Those are the only options as things stand.
No, Clegg answered it with a masterpiece of vagueness, namely that he made a commitment to talk to the parties. In practice it seemed like for a deal with Lab to be on the cards they'd have to get rid of Brown, but in any case they didn't have the numbers.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
She would probably swap a score (or a few score) of Labour seats for a baker's dozen of Lib Dem seats. But we will never know till we reach a general election just how the UK political landscape has really changed.
I'd say the odds of GE2017 have just nodged up again a smidgen, but I think May will still do what she thinks is playing it safe (bearing in mind she thinks her domestic policy mandate derives from the EU Ref result as well)
If the LDs look like winning they will attract support from the right and left. Neither the Tories nor Labour seem particularly interested in the centre.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surely
Mrs May is frit.
Mrs May is Prime Minister and the posh boys are either on the back benches, "pursuing other opportunities " or unemployed.
Gordon is PM and Blairites are on the backbenches.
I'd say the Blairites and the posh boys stand similar chances of rehabilitation - or should that be resurrection?
You misunderestimate the Tory bloodlust for power. We eventually ditch the person who might lose a general election. Labour less so.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Would agree with that, except perhaps LDs above Farron, and that this might be a tactical gain-strategic loss for Remain. But I'll probably come to that tomorrow.
A great result for the Lib Dems and a damning indictment on Mrs May.
I kept on saying all those Lib Dem seats gained by the Tories in 2010/2015 was down to Dave and Mrs May being less appealing to those Lib Dem switchers.
A damning indictment on Goldsmith, surely
Mrs May is frit.
Mrs May is Prime Minister and the posh boys are either on the back benches, "pursuing other opportunities " or unemployed.
Gordon is PM and Blairites are on the backbenches.
I'd say the Blairites and the posh boys stand similar chances of rehabilitation - or should that be resurrection?
You misunderestimate the Tory bloodlust for power. We eventually ditch the person who might lose a general election. Labour less so.
You like winning power, but have no clue what to do if you get it.
Perhaps Theresa May will take this to mean Richmonders ain't that bothered about Heathrow Expansion.
Or Zac.
Sadly, anti-Heathrow candidates got somewhere around 95% of the vote.
The Lib Dems campaigned on Brexit, not Heathrow, and that was the reason the by-election was held in the first place.
I'm not sure that your original thought follows: as both were against Heathrow the anti-Heathrow crowd could vote for either and still have their wishes in that regard represented. Therefore it became more about the other main difference between the candidates: Brexit.
But also in Olney, they not only have a candidate who is against Heathrow expansion, her party is also firmly against it. Zac was still, in reality if not in name, a Conservative. The party going ahead with expansion.
I was referring to the politics of how May might play it.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
Push comes to shove with posters of Jeremy Corbyn in Alex Salmond's breast pocket.
Well done the Lib Dems and Olney. Zac got the comeuppance he so "richly" deserved and the voters of Richmond did this country a great service by booting this idiot out.
On the other hand ........
we won't see this again from any Tory MP. This will be a salutary lesson to the governing party and although an MP is lost to the Tory benches it will oddly strengthen Mays hand and discipline in the Tories. It was a huge majority lost in one night and it will focus minds rapidly......
The most bizarre outcome from this By election though is in regard to the Brexit vote. The Lib dems played this correctly in a staunch remain constituency and again well done to them. However it seems that the same people that claimed 52% to 48% on a national referendum is to close to be definitive, unrepresentative and resorted to legal action are now claiming in overnight threads and in other comments that a majority of 1900 in a local BE means Brexit is dead in the water. Hypocrisy doesn't even get close to describing this twin approach.
I now await with baited breath the rerun of this BE under the guise of BE2. After all, that's precisely the approach Remainers have taken for the last 6 months in regard to the previous democratic election settled by a vastly greater number of voters on a national basis and a very much larger majority and winning margin.
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
A vote on the deal is stupid. Either we vote yes to the deal, and leave, or we vote no to the deal, and leave on even worse terms.
That ship sailed when Cameron promised a referendum but only with two options
If we are going to leave, we should have some mechanism to gain a mandate for whether to take a softer deal, our go full WTO hard as nails Brexit. Lance the boil. Otherwise someone will shout betrayal.
Surely any negotiated deal will be better than most favourable nations rules, otherwise what would be the point negotiating?
Depends on your priorities, the deal might include some right to work in the UK and or contributions to the EU budget. Betrayal!
Remember the Brexit that got a mandate is the one with full border control, no cost of entry to the single market("they need us more than we need them!") and a net fiscal benefit for the UK. It's filed under U for Unicorn dust
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it
The question Tim Farron wasn't asked this morning (because it wasn't relevant) is who do the Lib Dems support in a hung parliament. For any third party - but particularly one positioning themselves as 'centrist' - that is a question they must always be ready to answer. For those seats in SW London and the wider SE, how does he choose between Corbyn, who would go down like a bucket of cold sick with those voters, and May, upon whom he's directing all his firepower?
They've never answered it before, and I don't think they'll start. The practical answer most likely depends on the parliamentary arithmetic; The chances that they'll have kingmaker power are quite small. In the unlikely event that they do have kingmaker power, they'll want to keep their options open and negotiate the best deal they can.
Clegg answered it before 2010 i.e. 'we're prepared to talk to both but the party with most votes gets first chance'. That clearly indicated a willingness to support either Brown or Cameron. Farron will need to answer whether he would be prepared - given an acceptable policy deal to his party - to (1) put Corbyn in No 10; (2) keep May in No 10. Those are the only options as things stand.
No, Clegg answered it with a masterpiece of vagueness, namely that he made a commitment to talk to the parties. In practice it seemed like for a deal with Lab to be on the cards they'd have to get rid of Brown, but in any case they didn't have the numbers.
'Talking to the parties' means at least a willingness to support them (c.f. the SNP re the Tories). Clegg didn't demand Brown's departure before the election and when he did so afterwards he guaranteed a Con-LD deal as it ensured that there was no-one in Labour to talk to and that no deal could be guaranteed to survive the Labour leadership election.
But if Farron says something similar, it's easy to write the tactical 'don't let Corbyn in by the back door' leaflets.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
Push comes to shove with posters of Jeremy Corbyn in Alex Salmond's breast pocket.
I very much doubt that there are any shy LDs distorting the national VI polls. They have been knocking around 8% for years for a very good reason: it's an accurate measure of their current support. Let's consider the Richmond Park result.
1. It's an extremely good result for the yellows, and I for one admit that I didn't think they had it in them to pull it off. It's certainly very different to Witney: an enormous swing against the incumbent, and this time the Labour vote collapsed. 2. However... Richmond Park is a highly atypical seat - posh, metropolitan and very pro-EU - and nor are by-elections a good indicator of general election outcomes, when people are voting for a Government and you get much higher turnouts containing more pragmatic voters. One strong LD result against a (proxy) Tory candidate does not indicate that we are on the cusp of a major revival. 3. Therefore, best case scenario for LDs: this result suggests that they may win back a couple more leafy West London seats and Cambridge. Worst case scenario: many general election voters don't back them because of several factors - wanting a centre-right Government, lack of media exposure, attempts to block the EU referendum result, a "vote Farron, get Corbyn" narrative from Tory HQ - and they get almost nowhere. 4. If Brexit really does work as a motivating factor against the Government in some places, then perhaps we ought also to acknowledge that the opposite might be true in others? There are few Tory-LD marginals left for the yellows to exploit, and in some of those (e.g. Torbay) the local electorate are strongly anti-EU rather than pro.
I see nothing, even after tonight's result, to change my fundamental opinion of where the Liberal Democrats are at the moment. They appeal to a relatively small soft-Left, Europhile vote, and they have little room to expand. The large bulk of Conservative voters, even if they are pragmatic Remainers, won't find the Liberal Democrat platform appealing in a general election, and the Labour brand appears resilient enough to place their bedrock support levels at somewhere around 25%.
Ukip continues to poll around 12-13% nationally, and the Leave proposition is more popular than the Remain one. Accordingly, if and when the Liberal Democrats run in a general election as an anti-Ukip for Remainers, we ought not to be surprised if they struggle to make it into double figures (both in terms of national vote share and number of MPs.)
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
That's exactly the point I was making David. My fear is that the Tory vote once again becomes extremely inefficient (as per 2010). It also depends on scale though. If she gains 6-7% from UKIP and loses 3-4% to the Lib Dems she should do alright, especially with Labour going backwards.
So Farron is deeming this result as "the fight back of the 48%".
I'm amazed politicians haven't yet grasped that results in London are rarely indicative of the wider country.
The 48% were not just in London.
There's a good chance that May will end up in the same situation as Major: a razor-thin majority and a party that is in open revolt. It might even be some of the very same faces causing the revolt.
Her saving grace is that she's facing Corbyn rather than Blair.
Oh, and I feel a little sorry for Wolmar. He's a fairly knowledgeable guy, but it seems he's politically inept. In that, he's a prefect fit for Corbyn's Labour party ....
His book about the history of the railways is very good, except where he lets his politics seep in about trade unions, and it ends with a full-on rant on privatisation.
I think that's fairly on the button. He really doesn't like to see anything positive said about privatisation.
Despite this, I quite like him. He's fairly firmly against HS2; in fact, I think he's one of the most reasoned, and dangerous, opponents to the scheme. Fortunately the anti-HS2 groups tend to ignore him in their campaigning.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it
I see UKIP have lost the fruitcake monopoly
Good people can make terrible choices. Doubling down on them doesn't make them better.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
Fox jr and his girlfriend are both now inclined to the LDs too. Tuition fees are ancient history to them, but Brexit is very real.
There will be reality checks, but this is the start of a long road back for the LDs.
Harborough, and Hinckley and Bosworth look the most winnable seats locally to me.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it
I see UKIP have lost the fruitcake monopoly
Good people can make terrible choices. Doubling down on them doesn't make them better.
And bad politicians make worse ones. Sometimes you just have to shake the kaleidoscope and see where it settles.
Perhaps Theresa May will take this to mean Richmonders ain't that bothered about Heathrow Expansion.
Or Zac.
Sadly, anti-Heathrow candidates got somewhere around 95% of the vote.
The Lib Dems campaigned on Brexit, not Heathrow, and that was the reason the by-election was held in the first place.
I'm not sure that your original thought follows: as both were against Heathrow the anti-Heathrow crowd could vote for either and still have their wishes in that regard represented. Therefore it became more about the other main difference between the candidates: Brexit.
But also in Olney, they not only have a candidate who is against Heathrow expansion, her party is also firmly against it. Zac was still, in reality if not in name, a Conservative. The party going ahead with expansion.
I think Heathrow got a boost from the election on the Dog that Didn't Bark basis. If Zac HAD won, the narrative would be Richmond putting the government on notice about the runway. In the event Richmond decided it was less important, or at least no more important, than Brexit. It's taken the wind out of the sails of Heathrow protest. It's boosted Brexit protest a bit on the other hand.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
That is May's conundrum. Going to the country now, without any significant achievements, would represent a huge gamble; actually achieving anything with a thin parliamentary majority and no consensus on what it is that we are trying to achieve looks equally problematic.
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
If that is what's happening (a Con-LD swing, offset by a UKIP-Con one), it'd depend on the numbers but my gut instinct is that it'd see some losses to LDs in SW England and SW London, offset by gains from Labour in Mids, NW and Yorks. But with the majority so slim, which factor would be bigger is critical and would obviously depend on the numbers.
Push comes to shove with posters of Jeremy Corbyn in Alex Salmond's breast pocket.
No - every Tory poster will be him in front of that sports car coupled with some of his choicer statements attached.
It will be brutal, and much wailed over, and talked about endlessly by Corbyn's fellow metropolitan elites in the media with no brain cells to run together (e.g. Milne) with long faces.
And it will be effective, and fair, and most of all very funny to watch.
With every passing day the bucket of steaming poo that represented the legacy of Cameron D gets stinkier. How long can the Tories remain united when people like Bone brief no surrender whilst people like Soubry flaunt their europhilia. It's interesting how silent the majority are though.
With every passing day the bucket of steaming poo that represented the legacy of Cameron D gets stinkier. How long can the Tories remain united when people like Bone brief no surrender whilst people like Soubry flaunt their europhilia. It's interesting how silent the majority are though.
well if ZAC has achieved anything it's to make them all worry about their seats
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
Fox jr and his girlfriend are both now inclined to the LDs too. Tuition fees are ancient history to them, but Brexit is very real.
There will be reality checks, but this is the start of a long road back for the LDs.
Harborough, and Hinckley and Bosworth look the most winnable seats locally to me.
Brexit was the key for my daughter. She really didn't understand her dad's decision on that at all!
My ideal scenario would be a sensible centre left Lib Dem party becoming the alternative government of choice with Labour collapsing under its incoherence but that possibility seemed to disappear in 2015. Still every great journey starts with a single step....
No, let's take the Leave approach. Lib Dems won, that's the end of it, no second election in 2020, the people have spoken you undemocratic traitor. Richmond Park is yellow until the end of time regardless of anything else
Except referendums aren't periodic, while elections to Parliament are.
Are you suggesting that in a democracy people can change their minds? Remoaner nonsense.
No, but can you imagine us having referendums on leaving/joining the EU every five years?
Fortunately we don't have to, just when we're at a critical juncture like being offered a specific deal, or a new Treaty. Outside that, regular elections will be just fine.
A vote on the deal is stupid. Either we vote yes to the deal, and leave, or we vote no to the deal, and leave on even worse terms.
That ship sailed when Cameron promised a referendum but only with two options
If we are going to leave, we should have some mechanism to gain a mandate for whether to take a softer deal, our go full WTO hard as nails Brexit. Lance the boil. Otherwise someone will shout betrayal.
Surely any negotiated deal will be better than most favourable nations rules, otherwise what would be the point negotiating?
Yes, but a lot worse than what we have now. People feel the loss much more than any gain
My younger daughter has recently announced that she has switched her loyalty from the Tories to the Lib Dems. She was a great fan of Cameron but has little time for May and finds Farron normal and likeable (something I was teasing her about only at tea time yesterday). Clearly she was ahead of the trend.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
Fox jr and his girlfriend are both now inclined to the LDs too. Tuition fees are ancient history to them, but Brexit is very real.
There will be reality checks, but this is the start of a long road back for the LDs.
Harborough, and Hinckley and Bosworth look the most winnable seats locally to me.
Brexit was the key for my daughter. She really didn't understand her dad's decision on that at all!
My ideal scenario would be a sensible centre left Lib Dem party becoming the alternative government of choice with Labour collapsing under its incoherence but that possibility seemed to disappear in 2015. Still every great journey starts with a single step....
give her 20 years and she'll be agreeing with you.
With every passing day the bucket of steaming poo that represented the legacy of Cameron D gets stinkier. How long can the Tories remain united when people like Bone brief no surrender whilst people like Soubry flaunt their europhilia. It's interesting how silent the majority are though.
That question has been asked since the 1950s yet with rare exceptions, it's hardly proved debilitating. The hard-liners on both sides cancel each other out and each individually is rarely in a position to enforce their view. Now, however, might be such a time, which poses interesting questions about 2017, not the least of which is about an early election.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
Lessons clearly have not been learned. That sneering attitude from so many Europhiles almost certainly contributed to Remain losing the referendum.
Nope. It is self-evidently true that to oppose membership of the European Union membership means you are intolerant, narrow minded and bigoted.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
The nature of the Leave campaign is certainly something about which moral judgements can be made. It is a continuing and indelible stain on all that were involved in it.
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
Not all Leavers were intolerant xenophobes, but all intolereant xenophobes were Leavers.
Leave contained several subsets, including those expecting £350m extra per week for the NHS. Good people, albeit gullible.
Comments
It gives a timely boost to the Liberal Democrats as the Labour right disintegrates;
It removes a potentially awkward critic of the government;
It also removes one of the more toxic members of her party from the Commons and allows her to distance herself from his disastrous campaign for Mayor;
It will discourage other defections;
It also eases the likelihood her party will demand an early election.
As against that, to quote Hacker, PMs never lose seats if they can help it, and it certainly reinforces the narrative that the Tories will struggle in London and possibly the wider suburban south east.
I think however, contra TSE, that she was right not to field a candidate that would potentially have come third. The story this morning is orange revival not blue humiliation, with the odd mention of the Jezziah's pathetic performance.
This was an ideal site for an LD byelection, but far from unique. I think not so much shy LDs as downweighting in polls. We also see quite a lot of Council byelection victories. As an LD, I will have a spring in my step.
There are a good number of voters repelled by the intolerant, narrow mindedness of the Brexiteers, and alt. right, quite prepared to vote for a different sort of Britain. LDs are not fishing in a shallow pool.
We should thank the LibDems for clarifying that.
There's an aching void in British politics, with centrist Remainers having no obvious abode. The Lib Dems now have the chance to make the case for their votes.
I'm amazed politicians haven't yet grasped that results in London are rarely indicative of the wider country.
There's a good chance that May will end up in the same situation as Major: a razor-thin majority and a party that is in open revolt. It might even be some of the very same faces causing the revolt.
Her saving grace is that she's facing Corbyn rather than Blair.
Oh, and I feel a little sorry for Wolmar. He's a fairly knowledgeable guy, but it seems he's politically inept. In that, he's a prefect fit for Corbyn's Labour party ....
Give 'em an inch and they will take you to Brussels.
Trying to play down a LD surge is surely a banning offence!
May does not have the political nouce to run a minority government. She will be the Tory Gordon Brown.
From a Labour voter.
That was hardly a ringing endorsement.
For the Tories this is a risk. Cameron and Osborne built their majority on the back of the bodies of their erstwhile coalition partners. They did so by repositioning the Tories as a centre party with a liberal social agenda and it played very well in Lib Dem seats.
In contrast May is much more of a traditional Conservative. This has allowed her to pick up some of the support that Cameron had lost to UKIP boosting her standing in the polls to remarkable levels. But are the Tories in danger of swopping the votes they needed to win a majority for ever larger majorities in already safe seats? I think they are and that this result, albeit helped by Zac's stupidity, is a good example of that.
I may not be following my daughter yet but I am massively less enthusiastic about May than I was about Cameron and Osborne. If it wasn't for Ruth...
Edited extra bit - it's really difficult getting the codes right when using an ipad
Because no-one else will.
The start of an Open fight back? From small acorns doth mighty oaks grow.
This is the new political divide. I'm looking forward to it.
If we are going to leave, we should have some mechanism to gain a mandate for whether to take a softer deal, our go full WTO hard as nails Brexit. Lance the boil. Otherwise someone will shout betrayal.
Great result on many levels as far as I am concerned. Congrats to Barnesian and others who worked hard for it.
Do you want to Leave the EU, well yes (marginally), but you haven't asked whether you want a hard or soft Brexit.
The devil is in the detail and referenda don't do detail.
To be fair, if Richmond solidly voted Remain and she just won a by-election on that basis then she has a electoral mandate to do that.
Of course, that does not apply to a clear majority of MPs.
Basically, a bad person. We have been told, and we should learn.
But also in Olney, they not only have a candidate who is against Heathrow expansion, her party is also firmly against it. Zac was still, in reality if not in name, a Conservative. The party going ahead with expansion.
The other factor is the return of tactical anti-Tory voting, likely to be highly significant again.
Zac
May
Brexit
Corbyn
"Yes"
"Great, it's a deal. I'll just need your kidneys"
"Wait, what?"
"Hey, you made your choice"
Olney
Farron
LDs
Heathrow
Remain
I'd say the odds of GE2017 have just nodged up again a smidgen, but I think May will still do what she thinks is playing it safe (bearing in mind she thinks her domestic policy mandate derives from the EU Ref result as well)
Zac. Hah bloody hah!
Until Leave supporters recognise that pandering to xenophobia as a route to electoral victory has enduring consequences, Britain is condemned to remain divided and weakened indefinitely.
another of Dave's A list successes
On the other hand ........
we won't see this again from any Tory MP. This will be a salutary lesson to the governing party and although an MP is lost to the Tory benches it will oddly strengthen Mays hand and discipline in the Tories. It was a huge majority lost in one night and it will focus minds rapidly......
The most bizarre outcome from this By election though is in regard to the Brexit vote. The Lib dems played this correctly in a staunch remain constituency and again well done to them. However it seems that the same people that claimed 52% to 48% on a national referendum is to close to be definitive, unrepresentative and resorted to legal action are now claiming in overnight threads and in other comments that a majority of 1900 in a local BE means Brexit is dead in the water. Hypocrisy doesn't even get close to describing this twin approach.
I now await with baited breath the rerun of this BE under the guise of BE2. After all, that's precisely the approach Remainers have taken for the last 6 months in regard to the previous democratic election settled by a vastly greater number of voters on a national basis and a very much larger majority and winning margin.
Remember the Brexit that got a mandate is the one with full border control, no cost of entry to the single market("they need us more than we need them!") and a net fiscal benefit for the UK. It's filed under U for Unicorn dust
I see UKIP have lost the fruitcake monopoly
But if Farron says something similar, it's easy to write the tactical 'don't let Corbyn in by the back door' leaflets.
Despite this, I quite like him. He's fairly firmly against HS2; in fact, I think he's one of the most reasoned, and dangerous, opponents to the scheme. Fortunately the anti-HS2 groups tend to ignore him in their campaigning.
There will be reality checks, but this is the start of a long road back for the LDs.
Harborough, and Hinckley and Bosworth look the most winnable seats locally to me.
If the LDs look credible a tipping point is not far off.
In the meantime, it looks as though Obama will beneath a golden* economic legacy to Trump:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN13O1NE
(*Certainly compared to the one his predecessor left him.)
It will be brutal, and much wailed over, and talked about endlessly by Corbyn's fellow metropolitan elites in the media with no brain cells to run together (e.g. Milne) with long faces.
And it will be effective, and fair, and most of all very funny to watch.
hang together or you'll hang seperately
My ideal scenario would be a sensible centre left Lib Dem party becoming the alternative government of choice with Labour collapsing under its incoherence but that possibility seemed to disappear in 2015. Still every great journey starts with a single step....
we were all eurofans once
Leave contained several subsets, including those expecting £350m extra per week for the NHS. Good people, albeit gullible.