politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local and Westminster by-election preview

I am actually feeling optimistic for the first time ever* that an outcome I want to happen, may actually happen. Lib Dems winning here?

*not an exaggeration - 2010 was the first election I really cared about (at 15 in 2005 I didn't really care). 2010 the LD's failed expectations, 2015 even more so, then Brexit, then Trump. I'll take any crumbs I can get at this point!

Are there any journalists except Faisal there ?

A reverse crossover isn't impossible; the gap is narrowing again

justin124 said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live

Then what the heck is Faisal Islam talking about.

But the Verification stage is when the party samplers are really able to do their work by getting a clear idea as to how particular boxes have voted. After that the votes are mixed up as it were!

Isn't verificationsupposed to be with the papers face down so people cannot get an idea?

Hmm All I've done so far is given up £20 on Zac and £10 on the yellows.

Trading this like a mugeroo tonight !

williamglenn said:

In affectionate remembrance of English Brexit, which died today in Richmond. Deeply lamented by a large circle of sorrowing friends and acquaintances.

NB - Brexit will be cremated and the ashes taken to Trump Tower.

Brexit didn't die when it lost a referendum and was mocked for decades, it won't die even if this is not counting chickens before they hatch.

kle4 said:

justin124 said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:

They haven't actually started counting any votes yet, as opposed to verifying them.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/dec/01/richmond-park-byelection-results-counting-starts-live

Then what the heck is Faisal Islam talking about.

But the Verification stage is when the party samplers are really able to do their work by getting a clear idea as to how particular boxes have voted. After that the votes are mixed up as it were!

Isn't verificationsupposed to be with the papers face down so people cannot get an idea?

It used to be face up when I was doing counts at the verification stage.

SeanT said:

I kinda want the Libs to win tonight. I have no sympathy for trillionaire anti-Heathrow loser Zac G. And it would be great if the Remainian LDs could, somehow, replace the shower of shite that is Corbyn's Labour.

We are a democracy. The 48% - nearly half the damn country - need representation. Labour, right now, do not do that, at all.

I agree with SeanT. The end of the world is neigh. Pigs are flying.

MikeL said:

Betfair still gives Zac a 40% chance.

Is it possible the postal votes haven't been "seen" yet?

Clueless punters like myself guessing I think.

ThreeQuidder said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

If he loses, can't say that I have one ounce of sympathy for Zac.

Indeed; the man's an idiot.

It would be disappointing if a politician were to be punished by the voters for following through on a pledge.

Politicians get punished unfairly all the time. It's one reason pccs are such a stupid idea, since general party standing performance will trump any merit, or not, of a PCC candidate.

Just a thought

Did the postals show up later on in Oldham West ?

Paristonda said:

what are the betting odds on Sarah Olney next LD leader? Presumptuous yes, but if she does win she will be the sole female MP, and that will play well in any future leadership contests in a party that has never elected a female leader or even an ethnic minority MP (i.e. they are failing on the identity politics front - and LDs tend to go in for that generally).

Err, Parmjit Singh Gill says hello.

kle4 said:

ThreeQuidder said:

rcs1000 said:

MTimT said:

If he loses, can't say that I have one ounce of sympathy for Zac.

Indeed; the man's an idiot.

It would be disappointing if a politician were to be punished by the voters for following through on a pledge.

Politicians get punished unfairly all the time. It's one reason pccs are such a stupid idea, since general party standing performance will trump any merit, or not, of a PCC candidate.

and it probably wasn't that bright to have admitted that it was a silly pledge and if he had his time again he wouldn't have made it

SeanT said:

I kinda want the Libs to win tonight. I have no sympathy for trillionaire anti-Heathrow loser Zac G. And it would be great if the Remainian LDs could, somehow, replace the shower of shite that is Corbyn's Labour.

We are a democracy. The 48% - nearly half the damn country - need representation. Labour, right now, do not do that, at all.

I would probably vote Lib-Dem if I was in Rihmond just to stick it to Zac...

On the other hand though, wouldn't it be great if Faisal is was making an idiot of himself again...

JonathanD said:

MTimT said:

If he loses, can't say that I have one ounce of sympathy for Zac.

But is it a rejection of Zac or a rejection of the EU obsessed Tories?

It really doesn't matter the reason for his rejection. That there was a possibility of a rejection was down to his own vanity.

See it is night likes tonight where a typo from me on here or twitter could cause anarchy on Betfair.

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

In affectionate remembrance of English Brexit, which died today in Richmond. Deeply lamented by a large circle of sorrowing friends and acquaintances.

NB - Brexit will be cremated and the ashes taken to Trump Tower.

lol. We're in RICHMOND. Possibly the most Remainery (and beautiful) urban constituency in the UK.

Don't kid yourself SeanT, Brexit will be dead.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

what are the betting odds on Sarah Olney next LD leader? Presumptuous yes, but if she does win she will be the sole female MP, and that will play well in any future leadership contests in a party that has never elected a female leader or even an ethnic minority MP (i.e. they are failing on the identity politics front - and LDs tend to go in for that generally).

Err, Parmjit Singh Gill says hello.

Ah, oh dear - ok accusation withdrawn!

I think the point still stands though. She would stand out amongst the field

TheScreamingEagles said:

See it is night likes tonight where a typo from me on here or twitter could cause anarchy on Betfair.

Nothing is going to beat OGH wiping millions of the global stock markets with his erroneous tweet

Pulpstar said:

Is it me or are more votes going to the Zac pile just over Faisal's shoulder ?

Is it live on Sky?
Is there a feed somewhere?

I cant imagine zacs failed recent London mayoral election can be helping, not only the negative tone of it but also how much of an out of touch wally he sounded in lots of interviews.

williamglenn said:

Chris_from_Paris said:

Rumors in Paris tonight converge towrds a Friday morning Valls government resignation.
The next government would be announced as soon as Friday afternoon, with only minimal change. Cazeneuve would become PM and he would have to be replaced as Interior minister.
To manage police and security issues during the campaign, they would certainly choose a very loyal Hollandist (maybe Andre Vallini).

Does that imply Valls doesn't have Hollande's support for his Presidential run? In which case who will be the stop Valls candidate? Segolene?

Not really. It really means that Valls could campaign without being criticized of using his office as PM or not giving 100% of his time to managing the country.
Hollande will probably stay as much as possible out of it. he did not mention Valls or any of his Ministers during his speech tonight.
Apparently he said to Valls earlier this week that him not running would make Valls the logical candidate.

As I explained earlier today, the Hollande branch of the party may not be enthusiastic about Valls anyway and will probably try to find a Hollande proxy. Najat Vallaud Belkacem is the most likely (and has zero chance to win).

Segolene said a month ago that she had already refused several calls to run from former supporters.

MP_SE said:

Paristonda said:

SeanT said:

I kinda want the Libs to win tonight. I have no sympathy for trillionaire anti-Heathrow loser Zac G. And it would be great if the Remainian LDs could, somehow, replace the shower of shite that is Corbyn's Labour.

We are a democracy. The 48% - nearly half the damn country - need representation. Labour, right now, do not do that, at all.

The LDs really just need to focus on EEA/Soft Brexit/Single Market - that's what the 48% really want. It's a small minority that really want to block Brexit completely. Sarah Olney has argued along those lines to her credit.

I literally have no idea what Labour's policy actually is on Brexit. Does anyone? What a complete shitshow.

A victory in Richmond will embolden the Lib Dems in their attempt to block Brexit. They will argue that the people of Richmond have rejected Brexit so therefore the rest of the UK has as well.

This would be 72% Remain voting Richmond?

The circumstances of this by-election are sui generis. It tells you nothing ( on it's own ) about UK politics. That won't stop people framing it and some f those frames being sucessful. But in terms of the fundamentals ? The circumstances are bizarre. Sui Generis.

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

what are the betting odds on Sarah Olney next LD leader? Presumptuous yes, but if she does win she will be the sole female MP, and that will play well in any future leadership contests in a party that has never elected a female leader or even an ethnic minority MP (i.e. they are failing on the identity politics front - and LDs tend to go in for that generally).

Err, Parmjit Singh Gill says hello.

Olney has also only been the party 18 months. I wouldn't vote for her as leader, not yet anyway. 9.2 on Betfair though.

It will take about eight years or more before there is a vacancy. She'll be ready then.

rcs1000 said:

MP_SE said:

Paristonda said:

SeanT said:

I kinda want the Libs to win tonight. I have no sympathy for trillionaire anti-Heathrow loser Zac G. And it would be great if the Remainian LDs could, somehow, replace the shower of shite that is Corbyn's Labour.

We are a democracy. The 48% - nearly half the damn country - need representation. Labour, right now, do not do that, at all.

The LDs really just need to focus on EEA/Soft Brexit/Single Market - that's what the 48% really want. It's a small minority that really want to block Brexit completely. Sarah Olney has argued along those lines to her credit.

I literally have no idea what Labour's policy actually is on Brexit. Does anyone? What a complete shitshow.

A victory in Richmond will embolden the Lib Dems in their attempt to block Brexit. They will argue that the people of Richmond have rejected Brexit so therefore the rest of the UK has as well.

This would be 72% Remain voting Richmond?

A minor detail to intellectual heavyweights such as Farron and Brake.

If the woman in the brown coat could move away I'd be grateful lol

I'm done with trading this BE.

Hit my self imposed exposure limit

-£500 LD
+£1k Zac

Good luck punters.

Hope the LD's win!

Although this is all very exciting, some of us need our beauty sleep.

Barnesian said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

what are the betting odds on Sarah Olney next LD leader? Presumptuous yes, but if she does win she will be the sole female MP, and that will play well in any future leadership contests in a party that has never elected a female leader or even an ethnic minority MP (i.e. they are failing on the identity politics front - and LDs tend to go in for that generally).

Err, Parmjit Singh Gill says hello.

Olney has also only been the party 18 months. I wouldn't vote for her as leader, not yet anyway. 9.2 on Betfair though.

It will take about eight years or more before there is a vacancy. She'll be ready then.

8 years is a long time in politics.

TheScreamingEagles said:

A source from the Zac Goldsmith campaign has been speaking to reporters. “It is certainly looking very tight,” he said. He also thinks the turnout is around 50%.

That is on the low side. 75% turnout at the general election. I would expect 55-60% tonight.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

what are the betting odds on Sarah Olney next LD leader? Presumptuous yes, but if she does win she will be the sole female MP, and that will play well in any future leadership contests in a party that has never elected a female leader or even an ethnic minority MP (i.e. they are failing on the identity politics front - and LDs tend to go in for that generally).

Err, Parmjit Singh Gill says hello.

But since 2015 both taxi-fulls of LD MPs are white and male!

FF43 said:

Counterfactual time. What would have happened if the Conservatives had put up a candidate against Zac and the Lib Dems?

Easy Lib Dem win.

kle4 said:

YellowSubmarine said:

The circumstances of this by-election are sui generis. It tells you nothing ( on it's own ) about UK politics. That won't stop people framing it and some f those frames being sucessful. But in terms of the fundamentals ? The circumstances are bizarre. Sui Generis.

Do by-elections commonly say anything about national politics? Peop,e pretend comfortable holds in safe seats are remarkable in these things.

Not always. But being in a Lab/Con marginal that 52 to 48 to Leave would be a start.

Speedy said:

SeanT said:

williamglenn said:

In affectionate remembrance of English Brexit, which died today in Richmond. Deeply lamented by a large circle of sorrowing friends and acquaintances.

NB - Brexit will be cremated and the ashes taken to Trump Tower.

lol. We're in RICHMOND. Possibly the most Remainery (and beautiful) urban constituency in the UK.

Don't kid yourself SeanT, Brexit will be dead.

Can't we wait to see the result from Sleaford first?

FF43 said:

Counterfactual time. What would have happened if the Conservatives had put up a candidate against Zac and the Lib Dems?

Paddy would eat an entire hat factory!!

FPT

SeanT said:

There might be more niqabs and burqas per capita in London - and England - than any non-Muslim country on earth. Even in countries with larger Muslim populations - e.g. France - you seldom see the niqab.

What is it about British Muslims that makes these horrible shrouds so popular among them? Is it a particular kind of migrant/community? Is it some perverse kind of British Muslim fashion?

Here are a few reasons:

1. O Prophet! Tell your wives and your daughters and the women of the believers to draw their cloaks (veils) all over their bodies (i.e. screen themselves completely except the eyes or one eye to see the way). That will be better, that they should be known (as free respectable women) so as not to be annoyed. And Allah is Ever Oft Forgiving, Most Merciful. (Al-Ahzab 33:59)

2. It's a form of Ibadah (worship), a way of feeling closer to Allah. Muslims believe that this Dunya (this life on earth) is for worshipping Allah. Dunya is just a test for what really matters: the Akhira (next life). Everything a person does will have consequences in the Akhira.

3. The rise of Salafism. Salafi's say we need to go back to basic principles and live as the Prophet and his Companions lived. The Prophet's wives were completely covered. Salafi's say that Hadiths indicate women should live in seclusion apart from in front of other women or maharams (husbands, brothers, fathers, father-in-laws), a burqa or abaya with niqab allows for the woman to be in seclusion but still live, work and be present in society.

Burqas and niqabs should not be banned in the UK, they are a part of an increasing number of Muslim women's idenity and religious worship. Any ban would increase tensions and would create a nightmare for police and authorities to enforce. These women will not suddenly take off their burqas and go around uncovered, instead they will retreat into the home and not work or be in education. Also, Women do not endless debate what men should wear or campaign to ban men from wearing this or that particular clothing.

Paristonda said:

SeanT said:

I kinda want the Libs to win tonight. I have no sympathy for trillionaire anti-Heathrow loser Zac G. And it would be great if the Remainian LDs could, somehow, replace the shower of shite that is Corbyn's Labour.

We are a democracy. The 48% - nearly half the damn country - need representation. Labour, right now, do not do that, at all.

The LDs really just need to focus on EEA/Soft Brexit/Single Market - that's what the 48% really want. It's a small minority that really want to block Brexit completely. Sarah Olney has argued along those lines to her credit.

I think the 48% "really want" to remain in the EU - that's what we voted for - and almost all of us will be relieved if for whatever reason Brexit doesn't happen. But no, most of us aren't actively trying to block it, and if our relationship with the EU is the same after Brexit we won't be happy exactly but we'll be reasonably content with that.

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Is it me or are more votes going to the Zac pile just over Faisal's shoulder ?

If you're referring to this picture then I agree:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CyoVXApWgAA1vUY.jpg

Depends when each candidate's piles were last collected in to the centre.

Paristonda said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

what are the betting odds on Sarah Olney next LD leader? Presumptuous yes, but if she does win she will be the sole female MP, and that will play well in any future leadership contests in a party that has never elected a female leader or even an ethnic minority MP (i.e. they are failing on the identity politics front - and LDs tend to go in for that generally).

Err, Parmjit Singh Gill says hello.

Olney has also only been the party 18 months. I wouldn't vote for her as leader, not yet anyway. 9.2 on Betfair though.

But after a mediocre LD showing in 2020, perhaps just 5 or 6 gains (which is an optimistic estimate based on current polls), Farron would probably step down, and she would have been a member and MP for several years at that point.

If it's a snap election then I think it would probably be Norman Lamb assuming he holds on (and that Farron does badly).

Clegg comeback is quite possible. Several at my party meeting were seriously discussing it last time.

viewcode said:

I'm confused. I know what the "verification stage" is for postal votes: you take the votes out of their envelopes and check that the numbers and signatures match those on the outside. But what in the name of Jesus H Trump is the "verification stage" for non-postal votes?

It's a genuine question.

I thought it was just making sure the tally of votes matched what the polling stations reported.

Tower Hamlets Independent Gain from Tower Hamlets First

Ind 1147
Lab 823
Con 217
LDem 173
Green 170
UKIP 34

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804478654780764160

Please don't tell me they are 'yet to arrive'...

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804478654780764160

Old postal voters the downfall again?

viewcode said:

I'm confused. I know what the "verification stage" is for postal votes: you take the votes out of their envelopes and check that the numbers and signatures match those on the outside. But what in the name of Jesus H Trump is the "verification stage" for non-postal votes?

It's a genuine question.

It's when all the votes from each ballot box are counted and compared to the number issued at that polling station. They should match up of course. This doesn't involve sorting the votes into each candidate, but those observing can often get a rough idea of how many votes each candidate has got in that area and compare it to what they expected.