politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local and Westminster by-election preview
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LDs matched at 2.1.
Looks like money going on the LDs - though Zac still 1.61.0 -
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That does sound a bit like damage limitation TBH. It was actually a massive mountain to climb, with an apparently popular MP doing a popular thing in standing by a principle (as it said relentlessly on all his posters and leaflets) on an issue where the constituency mostly agrees with him. It is only during the last few days that there's been a feeling that Zac has misjudged it and the Brexit issue started to pull. But let's wait and see..FrankBooth said:
Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.IanB2 said:Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.00 -
Betfair suggests nobody has a clue - almost no money wanting to back or lay the LDs.0
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This site was actually happy about those events. But Corbyn won't win. The fact he is Labour leader is so utterly depressing. He's probably the worst Labour leader ever.Paristonda said:
Corbyn winning would send this site into a bigger meltdown than Trump and Brexit combinedkle4 said:
Corbyn wins snap GE?Jonathan said:
You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
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Paddy threatening to eat his hat!Paristonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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On Betfair the LibDems are about to drop below evens. But improving odds as the polls close has been the sign of impending doom this year...0
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According to that there spreadsheet that is t taking the actual popular vote in America now that the news networks have given up Hilary s just gained 20 thousand votes in PA since I last looked. She's now less than 50,000 votes behind. That's a bit dramatic.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=190 -
Strong Tory onePulpstar said:
Is your particular polling station more likely to be a strong Lib Dem or Tory one ?Barnesian said:
I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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We might see crossover on Betfair very soon0
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Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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Magnificent news for UKIP if true. It makes it clear that any vote in a by election or general election has to be on the basis of Leave.Dixie said:Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.
It's horrendous for Labour outside the metro areas.0 -
too close to call in Georgia, got to bed.....Paristonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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Yes, Philadelphia is unbelievably slow at counting.Alistair said:According to that there spreadsheet that is t taking the actual popular vote in America now that the news networks have given up Hilary s just gained 20 thousand votes in PA since I last looked. She's now less than 50,000 votes behind. That's a bit dramatic.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=190 -
Very quiet here?0
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Spurs 2-0 up at ChelseaScrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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In the circumstances one can only reflect that the repeated use of 'Downtown' Abbey here is a Freudian slip.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care. 0 -
Sounds a little convoluted, to be honest. People are simpler than that, surely.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.0 -
No, it is just a psychobabble way of describing the downstairs losing faith in the upstairs establishment.SeanT said:
What an absolute sack of bollocks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
Downton Abbey was just pantomime in comparison.
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I've always felt 1997 was the real millennium in Britain. The death of Protestantism with the Dianafication of popular grief. The first post modern political event in the NuLabor Landslide, the devolution referendums in Scotland and Wales as precognitions of the nationalism of 20 years later.0
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What worries me is my heart skipped a beat just seeing that ........The_Apocalypse said:
Spurs 2-0 up at ChelseaScrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.0 -
Tories not happy. resigned to lose.YellowSubmarine said:0 -
The bookies (Laddies and Betfair Sportsbook) think Zac's won with his odds at 2/5, with the LibDems quoted at 7/4.SeanT said:
If Libs win it's a big and hugely needed triumph for them, and for Farron, and a definite blow to Hard Brexit. It just is. Zac had a 23,000 majority.IanB2 said:
That does sound a bit like damage limitation TBH. It was actually a massive mountain to climb, with an apparently popular MP doing a popular thing in standing by a principle (as it said relentlessly on all his posters and leaflets) on an issue where the constituency mostly agrees with him. It is only during the last few days that there's been a feeling that Zac has misjudged it and the Brexit issue started to pull. But let's wait and see..FrankBooth said:
Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.IanB2 said:Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.00 -
@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith0
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IIRC your 'in the know' predictions were somewhat inaccurate for the London elections.Dixie said:
Of course, they really don't know. Just their feeling. They're on the phone now, they are so miserable. I can't get them off the phone.Luckyguy1983 said:
That's big!Dixie said:Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.
Though you were then predicting the Conservatives to do better than they did.
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When labour win this by election the experts will look foolish0
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Haha!Scrapheap_as_was said:
What worries me is my heart skipped a beat just seeing that ........The_Apocalypse said:
Spurs 2-0 up at ChelseaScrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
I see that Kane has signed a new contract till 2023, that's some good news for you guys.0 -
Well referendum results are binary. So in reality she could just have tossed a coin.SeanT said:
What an absolute sack of bollocks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.0 -
There'll be no shortage of people arguing otherwise, but it's hard to see such an outcome as anything else. Even with any other factors that might have helped them, the LDs were so far back, and are still ghosts in national political terms, and there were factors working against them too.SeanT said:
If Libs win it's a big and hugely needed triumph for them, and for Farron, and a definite blow to Hard Brexit. It just is.IanB2 said:
That does sound a bit like damage limitation TBH. It was actually a massive mountain to climb, with an apparently popular MP doing a popular thing in standing by a principle (as it said relentlessly on all his posters and leaflets) on an issue where the constituency mostly agrees with him. It is only during the last few days that there's been a feeling that Zac has misjudged it and the Brexit issue started to pull. But let's wait and see..FrankBooth said:
Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.IanB2 said:Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.0
It will certainly prompt some fun spinning should they win - it's boring to hear the spin on a usual no surprise by-election as leaders try to make an expected comfortable win seem like its significant, or a standing still second place seem like a wake up call for the government etc, because turnout being down means the majority number is less.
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That's the thing, with Brexit and Trump there were still people on this site that thought they could win (I got Trump right but not Brexit), whereas it seems almost no-one at all is predicting a Corbyn victory (I don't either) - so if he did pull it off it would be even more blindsiding.The_Apocalypse said:
This site was actually happy about those events. But Corbyn won't win. The fact he is Labour leader is so utterly depressing. He's probably the worst Labour leader ever.Paristonda said:
Corbyn winning would send this site into a bigger meltdown than Trump and Brexit combinedkle4 said:
Corbyn wins snap GE?Jonathan said:
You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
He's almost certainly the worst Labour leader ever - at least Foot didn't project incompetence like Corbyn does.0 -
It wasn't only the left, a lot of people thought it was a good change. Boy were they wrong. The world would be a much better place if Blair and Brown has never been born.Luckyguy1983 said:But it felt good at the time - that's all you ever need to know about left wing politics.
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If Zac loses, and I suspect he scrapes home by a thousand votes or so, it will in large part be because the voters of Richmond decided they couldn't be arsed to vote in an unnecessary by-election.Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
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Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
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What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.
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Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.
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CORRECT. But they were my predictions. These are other people's!another_richard said:
IIRC your 'in the know' predictions were somewhat inaccurate for the London elections.Dixie said:
Of course, they really don't know. Just their feeling. They're on the phone now, they are so miserable. I can't get them off the phone.Luckyguy1983 said:
That's big!Dixie said:Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.
Though you were then predicting the Conservatives to do better than they did.0 -
Correct - I backed both Trump and Brexit and won handsomely despite desperately hoping to lose my money.Paristonda said:
That's the thing, with Brexit and Trump there were still people on this site that thought they could win (I got Trump right but not Brexit), whereas it seems almost no-one at all is predicting a Corbyn victory (I don't either) - so if he did pull it off it would be even more blindsiding.The_Apocalypse said:
This site was actually happy about those events. But Corbyn won't win. The fact he is Labour leader is so utterly depressing. He's probably the worst Labour leader ever.Paristonda said:
Corbyn winning would send this site into a bigger meltdown than Trump and Brexit combinedkle4 said:
Corbyn wins snap GE?Jonathan said:
You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
He's almost certainly the worst Labour leader ever - at least Foot didn't project incompetence like Corbyn does.
I won't be backing Corbyn. He has rendered the party a complete irrelevance.0 -
So the share of postal votes has actually gone up since the GE.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
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nah I actually think Le Pen would be bigger earthquake then trump because trump was standing on the Republican party platform who are not considered neo nazi/facist like FN. But trump is more important in terms of west's general direction.SeanT said:
1989 was probably more exciting, and certainly much more important, but I specifically said "within the realm of democratic politics we have had the most excitement possible" - ie. within electoral politics here in the west.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
For politics nerds like us, I do not see how it can feasibly get any more exciting than what we have witnessed 2014-2016. Even a Marine Le Pen election wouldn't quite match Brexit or Trump. And Corbyn has provided incredible comedy.
It's a golden age now ending, like the first tang of autumn in the Summer of Love, or French Art in the decades before the lilacs and roses of the Great War.
2014-2016, we salute you.0 -
will favour ZacSpeedy said:
So the share of postal votes has actually gone up since the GE.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
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Did I hear earlier that Richmond result not expected until tomorrow afternoon?
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Normally the ones from the polling station nearest wherever the count is, presumably Richmond Town Hall!YellowSubmarine said:0 -
Much better place if Thatcher had never existed.glw said:
It wasn't only the left, a lot of people thought it was a good change. Boy were they wrong. The world would be a much better place if Blair and Brown has never been born.Luckyguy1983 said:But it felt good at the time - that's all you ever need to know about left wing politics.
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One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.0 -
It actually more than doubled if turnout is just 35%.Dixie said:
will favour ZacSpeedy said:
So the share of postal votes has actually gone up since the GE.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
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LDs changing expectations a bit:
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/804457695474499584
Sounds like a repeat of the 2010 result.0 -
Overall turnout in 2015 was 76.5%.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
So if overall turnout is below 50% now then postal votes should be down at least 25%.
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Is there any audio or visual for Richmond ?0
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Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
this morning, the view was turnout was high. But that looks like bollocks. Which mean, probably everything forecast is bollocks. Low turn out normally favours incumbent and older voters still turn out so Tories. But Tories on ground are not confident. That doesn't mean much either.Speedy said:
It actually more than doubled if turnout is just 35%.Dixie said:
will favour ZacSpeedy said:
So the share of postal votes has actually gone up since the GE.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
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Le Pen will take France out of the EU, which will mean the end of the EU. So I agree her election would be a bigger earthquake, in geopolitical terms, than that of Trump.nunu said:
nah I actually think Le Pen would be bigger earthquake then trump because trump was standing on the Republican party platform who are not considered neo nazi/facist like FN. But trump is more important in terms of west's general direction.SeanT said:
1989 was probably more exciting, and certainly much more important, but I specifically said "within the realm of democratic politics we have had the most excitement possible" - ie. within electoral politics here in the west.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
For politics nerds like us, I do not see how it can feasibly get any more exciting than what we have witnessed 2014-2016. Even a Marine Le Pen election wouldn't quite match Brexit or Trump. And Corbyn has provided incredible comedy.
It's a golden age now ending, like the first tang of autumn in the Summer of Love, or French Art in the decades before the lilacs and roses of the Great War.
2014-2016, we salute you.0 -
That's why I always use the '.Jobabob said:
One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.
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It's Kingston:IanB2 said:
Normally the ones from the polling station nearest wherever the count is, presumably Richmond Town Hall!YellowSubmarine said:
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/8044595904149258240 -
amazingly high then. Can't believe it will be as low as 35%. perhaps 42%.Speedy said:
It actually more than doubled if turnout is just 35%.Dixie said:
will favour ZacSpeedy said:
So the share of postal votes has actually gone up since the GE.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
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The Government doesn't need the boundary changes to decimate labour while Corbyn is therejustin124 said:
Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
That issue was around before 2016, though admittedly has increased. Elite is a state of mind now.Jobabob said:
One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.0 -
OK so obviously we're going to get the result tonight.
I should be supporting Zac (as he's a Brexiteer) but he's also a rich fool playing at politics so wouldn't be totally upset if the LIb-Dems do it and send him back to his trust fund.0 -
Isn't Kingston the most Lib Dem place ever ?0
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I agree. Fancy holding a by-election to elect the same person, who will have the same policies and get ignored in the same way by the govt. He deserves to lose.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
I got the 35% from my local polling station so it is only one of twenty or so. I'm also not sure what it is 35% of! Is it 35% of the total electorate or 35% of the nonPV electorate? It might be unwise to manipulate these figures too much. I agree that a higher PV would favour Zac as the momentum was going away from him at the end of the campaign after the PVs went out.Speedy said:
It actually more than doubled if turnout is just 35%.Dixie said:
will favour ZacSpeedy said:
So the share of postal votes has actually gone up since the GE.Barnesian said:
Postal vote 20% down on General Election allegedly.Scott_P said:@faisalislam: --- some Richmond intel: Low turnout looking likely. Low postal vote turnout it seems, which could be better for LibDem Olney than Goldsmith
0 -
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.0 -
I doubt that he will be there beyond 2018.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government doesn't need the boundary changes to decimate labour while Corbyn is therejustin124 said:
Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
Unfortunate - my own proposed seat would be much improved, and might even make it potentially vulnerable, if the LDs staged a decent recovery, and I'd like to live in a seat that is actively contested, without needing to move.justin124 said:
Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
Further change of tune from LDs:
https://twitter.com/ashcowburn/status/804457988710891520
A Goldsmith victory by 3k is actually what it's expected for a long time.0 -
The collapse of the EU might run it close.SeanT said:
1989 was probably more exciting, and certainly much more important, but I specifically said "within the realm of democratic politics we have had the most excitement possible" - ie. within electoral politics here in the west.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
For politics nerds like us, I do not see how it can feasibly get any more exciting than what we have witnessed 2014-2016. Even a Marine Le Pen election wouldn't quite match Brexit or Trump. And Corbyn has provided incredible comedy.
It's a golden age now ending, like the first tang of autumn in the Summer of Love, or French Art in the decades before the lilacs and roses of the Great War.
2014-2016, we salute you.0 -
Yeah, it puts up the transfer fee they'll get when the sell him in a year or two...The_Apocalypse said:
Haha!Scrapheap_as_was said:
What worries me is my heart skipped a beat just seeing that ........The_Apocalypse said:
Spurs 2-0 up at ChelseaScrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
I see that Kane has signed a new contract till 2023, that's some good news for you guys.0 -
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.0 -
The Great Orange Scourge of the elite will have the wealthiest administration ever...Jobabob said:
One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/12/01/trump_s_cabinet_will_be_the_wealthiest.html0 -
At the Mayoral elections I bumped into Christian Wolmar at a church hustings. He was the Chairman. He arrived on his bike then took to the lavatory. You know, He was in the papers last week bemoaning the overuse toilet roll. Blimey, that morning he stank that bog out big time! And there was no sign of a bide in this 19th century church. I went in after him...I nearly died! Just a little anecdote.0
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Agreed: it's a video game, boys and girls.Jobabob said:
One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.
In other news, after eleven months of waiting, I finally got my HoloLens.0 -
I can actually see Kane staying at Spurs. It's the likes of Alderweireld that I can see moving on in a couple of years if Spurs don't win a FA Cup or consistently challenge for the league.ThreeQuidder said:
Yeah, it puts up the transfer fee they'll get when the sell him in a year or two...The_Apocalypse said:
Haha!Scrapheap_as_was said:
What worries me is my heart skipped a beat just seeing that ........The_Apocalypse said:
Spurs 2-0 up at ChelseaScrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
I see that Kane has signed a new contract till 2023, that's some good news for you guys.0 -
Recent political times suggest complacency and over-confidence are extremely unwise.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government doesn't need the boundary changes to decimate labour while Corbyn is therejustin124 said:
Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.
The Conservatives need to do everything possible to get the Boundary changes through.
At GE 2015, Lab + SNP + PC + SDLP + Green got 295.
324 needed for a majority with SF absent.
So 29 gains needed - unlikely yes - but not impossible. Corbyn could become PM and everyone should take the terrifying prospect seriously.0 -
Would it be a shock if Zac loses to the Lib-Dems? I thought it was on the cards from the start - Voters HATE being forced to trudge to the polls for needless elections (especially three weeks before Christmas) and will usually punish those that bring it upon them.kle4 said:
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
Add to that Zac is LEAVE and Richmond is about as fertile ground for REMAIN as you can get and the possibility for a Lib-Dem spectacular is enormous.
Like I said. Zac's a fool and like most of these posh boys he seems to vastly over-estimate his political abilities.0 -
To somekle4 said:
That issue was around before 2016, though admittedly has increased. Elite is a state of mind now.Jobabob said:
One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.
How does he go? The far left have taken control of the party, due to the insane election rules in the PLP.justin124 said:
I doubt that he will be there beyond 2018.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The Government doesn't need the boundary changes to decimate labour while Corbyn is therejustin124 said:
Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
Kane seems to be headed back to sicknote status. Strange time for a payrise.ThreeQuidder said:
Yeah, it puts up the transfer fee they'll get when the sell him in a year or two...The_Apocalypse said:
Haha!Scrapheap_as_was said:
What worries me is my heart skipped a beat just seeing that ........The_Apocalypse said:
Spurs 2-0 up at ChelseaScrapheap_as_was said:
Spurs 1-0 up at ChelseaParistonda said:
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
I see that Kane has signed a new contract till 2023, that's some good news for you guys.0 -
Nah, that's Westmorland and Lonsdale, where Farron enjoys an 18% majority!Pulpstar said:Isn't Kingston the most Lib Dem place ever ?
0 -
Bugger that. I'll leave it here and wake up to the expected Zac win by a few thousand. At least the LDs look set to get some press though, which is hard for them to manage at any other time.Dixie said:
2 am if no recountGIN1138 said:Did I hear earlier that Richmond result not expected until tomorrow afternoon?
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OK, Locals saying turnout looking low, but Tories might hold on. I mean Indie. massive pinch of salt with that. As expected Zac's get out the vote was shite. Only data from 6 weeks ago. So, they haven't got a clue.kle4 said:
Bugger that. I'll leave it here and wake up to the expected Zac win by a few thousand. At least the LDs look set to get some press though, which is hard for them to manage at any other time.Dixie said:
2 am if no recountGIN1138 said:Did I hear earlier that Richmond result not expected until tomorrow afternoon?
0 -
Prediction: Zac by 10%.0
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0
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The government majority will be 13 tomorrow (pending the result in Sleaford) no matter who wins tonight.justin124 said:
Government majority would be down to 10 - Boundary changes in even greater jeopardy.chestnut said:
What's important about it, really?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
The government isn't going to change, and Goldsmith could easily pass as a Lib Dem just as many Lib Dems could pass as Tories.
If the turnout is 35%, it suggests most people belong in the 'stop wasting our time and shut up' party.0 -
Goldman Sachs runnning the Dept of Commerce? Why buy Hillary when Donald gives you it for free?Nigelb said:
The Great Orange Scourge of the elite will have the wealthiest administration ever...Jobabob said:
One of the worst things to come out of 2016 is the utter misuse of the word elite.another_richard said:
Thanks.YellowSubmarine said:@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.
I think there's an element of truth in that re people feeling betrayed by the 'elite' but did Downton Abbey really pick that up. Nor did you need to watch Downton Abbey to realise that.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/12/01/trump_s_cabinet_will_be_the_wealthiest.html0 -
But do they? OGH said on a thread 'In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then they usually do so', with very few failures apparently.GIN1138 said:
Would it be a shock if Zac loses to the Lib-Dems? I thought it was on the cards from the start - Voters HATE being forced to trudge to the polls for needless elections (especially three weeks before Christmas) and will usually punish those that bring it upon them.kle4 said:
A Tory loss on any turnout (ok, Ind loss, if we must) would be very important, as it would be a shock even on low turnout, and shocks are important because they force everyone to react differently.ThreeQuidder said:
If the turnout is that low, is it really an important by election?Speedy said:35% turnout is actually low for a by-election of this importance.
The Tories should be nervous, it might be low enough for the zombies to win.
But it's certainly not an anti-tory wave.
.
Without a Tory opponent to split his vote, and with UKIP also explicitly backing him, even with the Greens doing likewise for the LDs Zac should be safe given his stonking great majority and that there doesn't seem to be much antipathy toward him for his decision.
Realistically I'd have thought the LDs would hope to be within a few thousand, where they were in 2010 when they lost the seat, indicating the 20% drop in 2015 had been reversed, as there are other seats where recovering that would win a seat back.
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If they are from Kingston as reported, then all Kingston four wards were heavily Tory in the last local elections by a factor of two to one. But Sarah is from Kingston.AndyJS said:0 -
top gear twothe grand tour much better this week.0 -
RIP Andrew Sachs.0
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I know stuff is going on but can't Sky get back to the by-election..0
