politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local and Westminster by-election preview

Richmond Park (Ind defence, elected as Conservative) to Westminster Parliament Result of Parliament at last election (2015): Conservatives 331, Labour 232, Scottish National Party 56, Northern Ireland Parties 18, Liberal Democrats 8, Plaid Cymru 3, Green Party 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 12) Result of constituency at last election (2015): Conservative 34,404 (58%), Liberal Democrat 11,389 (19%), Labour 7,296 (12%), Green Party 3,548 (6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 2,464 (4%) EU Referendum Result (Borough): REMAIN 75,396 (69%) LEAVE 33,410 (31%) on a turnout of 82% Estimated Vote in constituency: REMAIN 72%, LEAVE 28% Candidates duly nominated: Zac Goldsmith (Ind), Alan Hope (Loony), Ankit Love (One Love), Sarah Olney (Lib Dem), David Powell (Non Party Independent), Dominic Stockford (Christian People’s Alliance), Fiona Syms (Independent Conservative), Christian Wolmar (Lab)
Comments
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Primus inter pares0
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2nd like spurs0
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As ever, thanks Harry.0
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113, like my IQ on a 15 SD.0
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Vs Swansea.
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0
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Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.0
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Many thanks, Harry. Much appreciated.0
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Zac seen ashen faced emerging from the Dog & Duck.YellowSubmarine said:Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.
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Some interesting locals too.0
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Nah. His ECV spread betting, when he bought Hillary and closed out at 12 times his stake.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804432728628162560
I assume OGH lumped on the popular vote ?0 -
The man who sold out at the right time !TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah. His ECV spread betting, when he bought Hillary and closed out at 12 times his stake.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/804432728628162560
I assume OGH lumped on the popular vote ?0 -
FPT
Yougov's leader approval ratings in Scotland have subtly changed in the last 18 months. They don't bother with the Lib Dems any more.MikeL said:Not sure if already posted but seems an extraordinary statistic:
In Scotland, 27% of Labour voters at GE 2015 now support the Conservatives.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/11/yougov-mark-st-andrews-day/0 -
Anybody from PB at the count?0
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The red deer are pregnant???YellowSubmarine said:Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.
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He's always ashen faced. When he grins crusts of soot fall from his eyebrows.Pulpstar said:
Zac seen ashen faced emerging from the Dog & Duck.YellowSubmarine said:Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.
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The iPlayer schedule makes no sense but *suggests* This Week starts at 11.45 on BBC 1 then transmutes into a By-election Special running on BBC World News running till 0300. Or maybe the guide is just unclear.0
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Has anyone polled the black minority ethnic voter in Richmond yet ?0
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FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.0 -
Very good Sunil, very good.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The red deer are pregnant???YellowSubmarine said:Somebody give us meaningless knocking up anecdata from Richmond Park.
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Insert joke about Tower Hamlets elections here.0
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Zac @ 1.42 on Betfair. Olney @ 30
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With by-elections, local or parliamentary, I generally hope for the most interesting result which is at least marginally plausible.
So LD Gain, LD Gain, UKIP Hold, Lab Gain, Ind gain and LD Gain.0 -
Manuel from fawlty towers has died.0
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gotta put money on the Yellow at that level. well, at least a couple of shillings.YellowSubmarine said:Zac @ 1.42 on Betfair. Olney @ 3
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Off topic, just been in my BF a/c and see they have paid out on Michigan. On POTUS night someone posted on PB to start thinking about a Trump win there in the light of the early results. Apologies I can't recall who but thanks whoever it was.0
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2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.FrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
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Errr I don't want to be picky but surely Trump winning was in fact very Brexity in terms of the polling, odds, and the "shocking" outcome. GE 2015 and Corbyn's 1st victory aren't far off it either.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
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Had my best ever Brexit discussion today. Chatting to a German Psychotherapist who lives here working for the NHS. She moves in overwhelmingly Remainian circles but was calling the referendum for Leave months in advance to her friends/collegues bewilderment. It was based on her fascinating analysis of watching dubbed versions of Upstairs, Downstairs in Germany as a child then comparing it to Downtown Abbey here as an adult. She argues , as you'd expect from a psychotherapist , that the myths we we tell about ourselves say a lot about our national self conscious.0
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You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%0
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Wrong! The break-up of the EU is just beginning.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
Experiencing a US election is different to experiencing one on the home front, in my view. As for comparing a longstanding outsider winning a party election with the titanic nature of the Brexit vote, well, how dare you, sir or madam.glw said:
Errr I don't want to be picky but surely Trump winning was in fact very Brexity in terms of the polling, odds, and the "shocking" outcome. GE 2015 and Corbyn's 1st victory aren't far off it either.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
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Corbyn wins snap GE?Jonathan said:
You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.0 -
It's perfectly plausible, even likely that 2017 will see #MaydaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
It might be for some. And there's the added bonus that even if the result goes against your side it doesn't matter anyway.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
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I Know Nothing! - Andrew Sachs RIPFrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
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Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.
Where are all the extra people living ?0 -
Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.00 -
Golden rule of politics these days, just when you think it can't get worse it does in new and more depressing wayskle4 said:
Corbyn wins snap GE?Jonathan said:
You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
Hard to believe even that would be any kind of a match. In June it was commonly thought to be all over bar the shouting, even after voting ceased. We know now that the seemingly inevitable can be over-turned.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
But hard to believe, also, that we will ever again be offered a referendum on anything - now that the seemingly inevitable result has been over-turned by those pesky voters once.0 -
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How did they compare and what did that mean politically ?YellowSubmarine said:Had my best ever Brexit discussion today. Chatting to a German Psychotherapist who lives here working for the NHS. She moves in overwhelmingly Remainian circles but was calling the referendum for Leave months in advance to her friends/collegues bewilderment. It was based on her fascinating analysis of watching dubbed versions of Upstairs, Downstairs in Germany as a child then comparing it to Downtown Abbey here as an adult. She argues , as you'd expect from a psychotherapist , that the myths we we tell about ourselves say a lot about our national self conscious.
I've never watched Downton Abbey but have seen a few episodes of Upstairs, Downstairs on ITV encore - surprisingly watchable IMO.
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I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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Must be weird to find yourself on the centre left of politics now.SeanT said:
2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).Jonathan said:
2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.FrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.
I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.0 -
Is your particular polling station more likely to be a strong Lib Dem or Tory one ?Barnesian said:
I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?Pulpstar said:
Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.
Where are all the extra people living ?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....
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Charlie Falconer's resignation was the highlight for me.SeanT said:
2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).Jonathan said:
2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.FrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.
I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.0 -
Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.IanB2 said:Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.00 -
Obviously price is a function of demand, my question simply is where are all the extra people livingTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?Pulpstar said:
Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.
Where are all the extra people living ?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....!
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Well, they'll be able to claim a huge swing from Conservative no matter what happens!kle4 said:
Who doesn't claim a good result in these situations? Trying to overturn such a massive majority, just getting within shouting distance would be said to be good.IanB2 said:Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
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I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?0
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"I can speak English! I learn it from a book!"SimonStClare said:
I Know Nothing! - Andrew Sachs RIPFrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
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Euro migration before Spain joined, to fill a job because he is cheap...FrancisUrquhart said:
Take back control!0 -
I agreeFrankBooth said:
Nothing less than a win is a good result for the Lib Dems. It's a former seat of theirs, lost to a liberally inclined Tory who then turned into Richard Nixon as candidate for London mayor. It's thought of as a very pro-EU area with the whole election a bit of a farce, reflecting badly on both the Tories and Goldsmith. The Greens have even stood aside for them.IanB2 said:Well Mr Farron has emailed me to say he is expecting a good result. Let's wait and see...
On Betfair the LDs have shaded out to about 3.00 -
Er, in garden sheds in Slough I think. Or with the in-laws.Pulpstar said:
Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.
Where are all the extra people living ?0 -
That's news to me too - he's still clinging on was the last I heard.SeanT said:
He's RESIGNED???Jobabob said:
Charlie Falconer's resignation was the highlight for me.SeanT said:
2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).Jonathan said:
2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.FrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.
I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.0 -
Que?Sunil_Prasannan said:
"I can speak English! I learn it from a book!"SimonStClare said:
I Know Nothing! - Andrew Sachs RIPFrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
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I'm feeling guilty now. Anyway, not sure I want to post it on my actual twitter as i use my real name on that.Pulpstar said:
Post it onto twitter, then link the tweet.Dixie said:I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?
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In smaller and smaller spaces.Pulpstar said:
Obviously price is a function of demand, my question simply is where are all the extra people livingTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?Pulpstar said:
Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.
Where are all the extra people living ?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....!
0 -
Upload it to TinyPic.comDixie said:
I'm feeling guilty now. Anyway, not sure I want to post it on my actual twitter as i use my real name on that.Pulpstar said:
Post it onto twitter, then link the tweet.Dixie said:I've got a great picture of Zac trying to hold a pint glass. Just had Coke in it. He didn't want to do it...smiling but hating me. How do I upload it to PB?
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1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
This is how an Italian friend sees the position in Italy:
* NO will win on Sunday, which means Grillo will win
* M5S will win a plurality in the next general election
* a NO win will probably lead to the end of the majority bonus system, so M5S will not win a majority in the lower house
* how Grillo will make use of his win is unclear
The issue of the majority bonus system is NOT being reported much in the "Anglo-American" press, if one may use an adjective that is popular in France and Italy. Said press prefers to write of how "complicated" the referendum issue is. Yeah right.
Goodness knows why, but Renzi is giving the same hand signal as Trump:
Renzi's promise to resign if NO wins has spurred people to vote NO. He appears to be a bit thick in his head, or maybe someone has slipped something in his water or has just told him he's got to go:
"I made an error in the beginning by personalising the referendum. I don’t want to make the same mistake now. To err is human, to persevere, diabolical."
Who wants a prime minister who talks like that?
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Jonathan said:
Must be weird to find yourself on the centre left of politics now.SeanT said:
2016 will go down as one of the best years of my life. I went to these countries: Thailand, Kenya (to see the last northern white rhinos on earth), Bhutan, Calabria in Italy (ate best dish of my life), Ticino in Switzerland, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Portugal, Chile, Bolivia, Peru (climbed to 18,400 feet), Dordogne in France, and Australia (where I stayed in Australia's best hotel).Jonathan said:
2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.FrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
I also slept with several exquisite young women, saw the UK exit the EU (a lifelong ambition), and laughed long and hard at the election of Donald Trump. And I made £200,000 from royalties just by sitting on my fat smug arse.
I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.
Brexit will soon be proved to be a complete waste of time and money. Whether you like its ideals or not it's implementation will be a shambles - either that or it will be so watAnneJGP said:
Hard to believe even that would be any kind of a match. In June it was commonly thought to be all over bar the shouting, even after voting ceased. We know now that the seemingly inevitable can be over-turned.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
But hard to believe, also, that we will ever again be offered a referendum on anything - now that the seemingly inevitable result has been over-turned by those pesky voters once.
In noisy times, quiet revolutions slip by unheard.SeanT said:
He's RESIGNED???Jobabob said:
Charlie Falconer's resignation was the highlight for me.SeanT said:
2016 will go down as one of the best years of SNIPJonathan said:
2016 claims another. Another 30 days of this dreadful year.FrancisUrquhart said:Manuel from fawlty towers has died.
I fully expect to get a richly deserved face cancer in 2017, and to spend most of it in Macclesfield. The pendulum must swing.0 -
Sunil's Great British Railway Journeys - 2016 Edition. Rail routes that Sunil has done for the first time.
Jan: Kidsgrove to Manchester Piccadilly, Overton to Salisbury, Ashford to Eastbourne, Manningtree to Harwich
Feb: Nottingham to Hucknall (NET tram), Alderley Edge to Cheadle Hulme, Manchester Piccadilly to Ashton (Metrolink), Chester to Liverpool via Birkenhead, Newhaven Harbour to Seaford
March: Ford to Bognor Regis, Polegate to Eastbourne, Crowhurst to St Leonards, Petersfield to Portsmouth, Portsmouth to Eastleigh, Derby to Matlock, Matlock to Rowsley South (Peak Rail)
Apr: Faversham to Dover, Ely to Kings Lynn, Liverpool to Southport, Thorpe-le-Soken to Walton-on-Naze
May: Ely to Norwich, Cambridge to Stowmarket, Stockport to Buxton, Barnham to Havant, Bedhampton to Cosham, Fareham to St Denys (Southampton), Ryde to Shanklin (Isle of Wight), Bull Street to New Street (Midland Metro)
Jun: Ipswich to Lowestoft, Nottingham to Chesterfield, Nottingham to Clifton South (NET), Nottingham to Toton Lane (NET), David Lane to Phoenix Park (NET), Peterborough to Lincoln, Ramsgate to Dover
Jul: Gloucester to Newport (Wales), Liverpool to Wigan North Western, Southampton to Weymouth, Nottingham to Lincoln, Grantham to Skegness, Gobowen to Chester, Norwich to Great Yarmouth (via Acle), Great Yarmouth to Norwich (via Berney Arms), Sileby to Melton Mowbray, Ipswich to Felixstowe
Aug: Nottingham to Worksop, Salisbury to Westbury, Winsford to Manchester Airport, Manchester Airport to Piccadilly, Eastleigh to Salisbury, Norwich to Sheringham, Manchester Piccadilly to Leeds (via Huddersfield), Guide Bridge to Hadfield (via Glossop), Hadfield to Dinting
Sep: Piccadilly to Bury (Manchester Metrolink), Salisbury to Exeter St. Davids (via Yeovil), Sheffield Station to Halfway (Supertram), Gleadless Townend to Herdings Park (Supertram), Brockenhurst to Lymington Pier, Birkenhead Hamilton Square to West Kirby, Birkenhead North to New Brighton, Reedham (Norfolk) to Lowestoft, Ely to Kennett, Wigan North Western to Preston
Oct: Pewsey to Newton Abbot (avoiding Westbury and Frome, and via Exeter St Davids), Stockport to Chester (via Altrincham), Redbridge (Hants.) to Romsey, Sheffield to Doncaster (avoiding Rotherham), Chippenham to Trowbridge, Manchester Piccadilly to Liverpool (via Warrington Central), Huyton to Manchester Deansgate (via Newton-le-Willows), Castle Cary to Yeovil Junction (via Pen Mill), Bruton to Frome, Hooton to Ellesmere Port, Ellesmere Port to Helsby, Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-super-Mare), Langley Green to Smethwick Rolfe Street (rare track!)
Nov: Hazel Grove to Sheffield, Sandhills (Liverpool) to Ormskirk, Worle to Highbridge and Burnham (via Weston), Sheffield University to Malin Bridge (Supertram), Hillsborough to Middlewood (Supertram), Fitzalan Square to Meadowhall (Supertram), Piccadilly Gardens to Altrincham (Metrolink), Cornbrook to Eccles (Metrolink), Harbour City to Media City (Metrolink).
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Good things about 2016? Cameron's sudden resignation not even being the number 1 news story of the day. And er....... that's about it.0
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3 bedroom rented places now with at least 6 people, sometimes 9.Pulpstar said:
Obviously price is a function of demand, my question simply is where are all the extra people livingTCPoliticalBetting said:
Are you saying that immigration drives up housing prices and rental costs?Pulpstar said:
Just a quick question, our net immigration is ~ 700k in the last couple of years. And around 60k houses have been built (I think).foxinsoxuk said:
I think that you mean a decrease in the rate of immigration from non eu, not in the absolute number. from todays figures non-eu migrants are more likely to stay:chestnut said:FPT
Believe it or not, there has been a decrease in non-EU workers since 2008.FrancisUrquhart said:
200k are still coming from non-eu countries, which is within our control whatever brexit. But that would require some tough decisions.SeanT said:
As I predicted. Free Movement "as it operated before". So they're going to tweak Free Movement. It will be Free Movement with a job offer.TheScreamingEagles said:David Davis at the CBI hinting at a flaccid Brexit
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/804430163052204032
Judging by today's migration stats that will take 130,000 people off the immigration figure, which is no small thing.
I doubt TMay will get net migration down to tens of thousands, but she could get it significantly under 200,000 which is a big drop from 330,000 and would probably placate the voters.
It's fairly obvious where Theresa and Angela have agreed the axe will fall in Europe - workers should be able to independently support their entire families - consequently job seekers, family joiners and dependents of the low paid are going to be barred.
Meanwhile, the Germans are advocating gunboats in the med.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/dec2016
So in the year that Mrs May had control of the home office, and a Conservative majority, there was net migration of 196 000 non eu people.
It doesn't sound as if she has a grip on it to me.
Where are all the extra people living ?
shock
Next you may think that immigration keeps wages down. Just wait for the europhile deniers to pile in....!
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Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.0
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O/T French election
After Hollande's announcement, the picture gets even more complicated on the left.
Most socialists are trying to stay on message tonight, saluting a "dignified and lucid" speech (to be honest, he mainly looked and sounded like a very sad, tired and broken man).
But the deadline for the left-wing primary candidacies is in less than two weeks and Hollande's decision is opening up the game.
It is a virtual certainty that Valls will announce his candidacy either on Friday or Saturday. The expecteation is that he will resign as PM to be able to campaign full-time. His most likely successor for this interim role would be Bernard Cazeneuve (Interior minister, very close to Hollande).
Now the problem is for the centre (or Hollandist) branch of the party, formerly dominant. The current candidates all represent either the left wing (Hamon, Montebourg, Filoche, Lienemann), the small allied parties (de Rugy and Benhamias) or the right-wing (Valls).
Thus there are rumors other candidates from that wing could enter the race: Najat Vallaud-Belkacem (education minister, 39) or Marisol Touraine (Health Minister, 59). Both are women and would guarantee a female particpation (Lienemann is not sure to get the needed number of supporters). NVB, who was born in Morocco, would also bring another touch of "diversity".
The dream of the "diversity" branch of the left is to have Christiane Taubira run. Taubira, 64, is a black woman who is mostly known as the Minister who prepared and defended in Parliament the Gay marriage law and the Justice Minister who pleaded against new anti-terror laws. She would get massive press support and would probably do well with the most militant base. She would of course have no chance in the general election but so do most of the others...0 -
1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.
Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.0 -
So, Olney the Lonely ?Barnesian said:
I think that's right. Low turnout. Allegedly 35% in my local polling station.Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
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Brexit will soon be proved to be a complete waste of time and money. Whether you like its ideals or not it's implementation will be a shambles - either that or it will be so watered down as to make no difference. Probably the former.AnneJGP said:
Hard to believe even that would be any kind of a match. In June it was commonly thought to be all over bar the shouting, even after voting ceased. We know now that the seemingly inevitable can be over-turned.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
But hard to believe, also, that we will ever again be offered a referendum on anything - now that the seemingly inevitable result has been over-turned by those pesky voters once.0 -
That was 2015 surely?The_Apocalypse said:The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.
Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.0 -
Farage lost in 2015, won big in 2016.The_Apocalypse said:The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.
Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.0 -
That's big!Dixie said:Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.
0 -
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In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.foxinsoxuk said:
1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
But it felt good at the time - that's all you ever need to know about left wing politics.chestnut said:
In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.foxinsoxuk said:
1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
You're right. For some reason the 2015 GE feels like it was so recent. The fact I picked an event that happened last year shows (a. I'm going crazy (b. 2016 was a really terrible year for liberals.Pulpstar said:
Farage lost in 2015, won big in 2016.The_Apocalypse said:The only political highlight of 2016 for me was Nigel Farage losing in South Thanet.
Outside of that, it was a pretty disappointing year.0 -
Of course, they really don't know. Just their feeling. They're on the phone now, they are so miserable. I can't get them off the phone.Luckyguy1983 said:
That's big!Dixie said:Tories have been canvassing tonight in Richmond Park that have finally confirmed. they've told me that Libs have won.
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@Another_Richard She argued Upstairs, Downstairs was a *memory* of a social order that was stronger in the past but still existed when it was broadcast. She felt Downtown Abbey was a fantasy about a social order that no longer existed and was a sort of cultural grief.
She saw the Upstairs, Downstairs as a repressive social order but an organic and functional one. She saw Downtown Abbey as a decadent social order that no longer functioned for key stakeholders..
So her theory was contemporary Britain was telling it's self it wanted the fantasy of Downtown Abbey because it could no longer *remember* the order of the Upstairs, Downstairs and was grieving. When the referendum came the servants ( the voters ) would murder the Granthams ( Cameron/Osborne ) because they'd renaged on the organic inclusion of the Upstairs, Downstairs model. They'd murder their father because they felt the absence of paternal care.0 -
One of many poor decisions perhaps, but thats democracy.chestnut said:
In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.foxinsoxuk said:
1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*
I would argue that the 1997 Labour govt was pretty good. It was the second rerm that both Tony and Gordon got drunk on power and went bonkers.0 -
Corbyn winning would send this site into a bigger meltdown than Trump and Brexit combinedkle4 said:
Corbyn wins snap GE?Jonathan said:
You could have said that last year. GE 2017 could be a humdinger.SeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
It doesn't seem especially bonkers, just desperate and ignoring some key factors making stopping Brexit more than merely 'not easy'.Scott_P said:0 -
I really don't think that's an attitude unique to the left wing. Is one more inclined to that sort of thing? That's a more difficult one.Luckyguy1983 said:
But it felt good at the time - that's all you ever need to know about left wing politics.chestnut said:
In the context of where we are in 2016, May 1997 has to be considered one of the most stupid decisions the electorate have ever made.foxinsoxuk said:
1990 with the defenestration of Maggie was a great day to be alive, as was watching the country turn red in May 1997.FF43 said:
1989 was even more exciting surely? Internationally, anywaySeanT said:
It just occurred to me that politics will NEVER be as exciting as 2014-2016. From indyref to the GE to Corbyn to the incredible peak of Brexit and The Donald, that was it.kle4 said:
We shall never see its like again. Unless we get Brexit Round 3 at some point.SeanT said:This is as exciting as Brexit night, isn't it?
We're done. We're finished. Within the realms of democratic politics, we have had the most excitement possible. We can't touch those heights again. From now on, all is gentle decline.
*sigh*0 -
Hillary looking strong in FloridaScrapheap_as_was said:
Farage has just conceded....Big_G_NorthWales said:Faisal Islam says turnout below 50%
0