politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voting on who’ll be the one to take on Marine Le Pen
There’s a unique election taking place in France today with members of the public who declare themselves to be Republican party supporters able to vote in a national primary to decide who’ll be the flag-carrier next April.
FPT: Incidentally the monarchists here seem to have forgotten the flipside of why the Crown Estates were handed to Parliament in exchange for the Civil List. Until that was done the Crown Estates were used by the monarch to pay for the Civil Service, the military and other functions of government.
If the house of Windsor wants to terminate that arrangement, reclaim the Crown Estates, the costs of the civil service, the national debt and so on then it doesn't seem like taxpayers come out worst in that arrangement.
Chris Snyder Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.
Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...
IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?
In this context, yes it is.
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
Chris Snyder Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.
Unlikely, unless he is going to be recruiting Democrats. You probably don't know that the last ex-Klansman Senator was a Democrat, do you?
Chris Snyder Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.
Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...
IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?
In this context, yes it.
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
I'm a net positive gambler but I'd be more net positive if it wasn't for sport in play betting. I've sworn off it now and don't touch it. I am clever enough to have never done any spread betting.
Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...
IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?
In this context, yes it is.
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
Chris Snyder Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.
Unlikely, unless he is going to be recruiting Democrats. You probably don't know that the last ex-Klansman Senator was a Democrat, do you?
Yes, Robert Byrd is a totally obscure American political figure who no one will have heard of. Roll eyes emoticon.
Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...
IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?
In this context, yes it is.
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
It's not just the French that have some sort of ring fenced gambling in EU. Spain, Italy and Portugal also do as well.
What I have never understood is how such legislation is compatible with free movement of goods and services. Eg pokerstars is EU based and licenced in all the various EU countries but have to run segregated player pools for the likes of France.
It's not just the French that have some sort of ring fenced gambling in EU. Spain, Italy and Portugal also do as well.
What I have never understood is how such legislation is compatible with free movement of goods and services.
It would be interesting to know if there are French gambling websites doing the same thing. If not, I can see justification even if it's not legal under EU law.
It's not just the French that have some sort of ring fenced gambling in EU. Spain, Italy and Portugal also do as well.
What I have never understood is how such legislation is compatible with free movement of goods and services.
It would be interesting to know if there are French gamblong websites doing the same thing. If not, I can see justification even if it's not legal under EU law.
All online gambling is ring fenced in France, regardless of the company offering.
With regard poker, it is more messed up. All French can only play in these ring fenced games, but non French citizens from some EU can join the pool (but not all EU citizens eg Brits can't, Irish can).
Chris Snyder Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.
Unlikely, unless he is going to be recruiting Democrats. You probably don't know that the last ex-Klansman Senator was a Democrat, do you?
Yes, Robert Byrd is a totally obscure American political figure who no one will have heard of. Roll eyes emoticon.
As that's a reasonably mainstream political fact I confess I have no idea from your reply whether you are saying that you knew it or you didn't.
Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?
did he give you a smack?
I got a glare.
Why would Jamie Redknapp glare at me when I complimented his wife's dance last night by saying to him 'I thought your wife was literally on fire on the dance floor tonight'
Betfair: Juppé 3.9 - 4.2 Le Pen 3.9 - 4 François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9
I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.
The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!
Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?
did he give you a smack?
I got a glare.
Why would Jamie Redknapp glare at me when I complimented his wife's dance last night by saying to him 'I thought your wife was literally on fire on the dance floor tonight'
I don't watch it. Was she really literally on fire? It's one way of depilating, I suppose. Unusual in a public place though.
Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?
did he give you a smack?
I got a glare.
Why would Jamie Redknapp glare at me when I complimented his wife's dance last night by saying to him 'I thought your wife was literally on fire on the dance floor tonight'
I don't watch it. Was she really literally on fire? It's one way of depilating, I suppose. Unusual in a public place though.
She wasn't on fire. It's a long standing joke about Jamie Redknapp's career as a pundit, he has consistently misused the word literally, this is my favourite when Jamie Redknapp is talking about Michael Owen.
Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...
IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?
In this context, yes it is.
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
Would it be fair to suggest that some people on this site are gambling addicts? Or does an addict have to lose money?
I had this discussion with Mike and Shadsy ages ago, for me, an addict is someone who will bet because they have a need to do so.
Sometimes the wisest course of action is to say 'no bet'
From a medical perspective an addict would be someone where the activity adversely affected their physical, psychological or social health (ie the physical or psychological health of family, workplace etc)
Betfair: Juppé 3.9 - 4.2 Le Pen 3.9 - 4 François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9
I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.
The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!
This is round one of the primary.
There has been early voting, which will have held Juppe (big early lead) and Sarkozy (more enthused supporters) over Fillon.
If Sarkozy does not win the first round of the primary, it's all over for him. The polls are very clear: Juppe supporters go to Fillon; Fillon supporters go for Juppe.
If it's Juppe vs Fillon, then unless Juppe has a big lead in the first round, I'd expect it to go to Fillon.
So, I either reckon from here it's probably 45% Fillon (with his risk being that he ends up a very close third), 35% Juppe, and 20% Sarkozy (who really has to win the first round by ten percentage points to avoid getting beaten in the second round).
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
It's not a contradiction when you look at the figures. Hollande is very very unpopular, so does badly against Le Pen. But that's also the reason why he will never face Le Pen.
Betfair: Juppé 3.9 - 4.2 Le Pen 3.9 - 4 François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9
I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.
The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!
This is round one of the primary.
There has been early voting, which will have held Juppe (big early lead) and Sarkozy (more enthused supporters) over Fillon.
If Sarkozy does not win the first round of the primary, it's all over for him. The polls are very clear: Juppe supporters go to Fillon; Fillon supporters go for Juppe.
If it's Juppe vs Fillon, then unless Juppe has a big lead in the first round, I'd expect it to go to Fillon.
So, I either reckon from here it's probably 45% Fillon (with his risk being that he ends up a very close third), 35% Juppe, and 20% Sarkozy (who really has to win the first round by ten percentage points to avoid getting beaten in the second round).
I have stopped digging myself further into a hole on this market.
But I am happy that If Juppé makes it through, I will still have effective odds of 1.5 which is fair, and Fillon if he makes it through at 1.3ish, which is a little short, but not a disaster.
Would it be fair to suggest that some people on this site are gambling addicts? Or does an addict have to lose money?
[rant mode on] The problem with this site is not that it has gamblers The problem with this site is that it doesn't have enough gamblers [rant mode off]
F1: this old chestnut has reappeared in the BBC gossip column. Ecclestone's 'eyeing' a two-race format (shorter races). An F1 race is about the length of a football match or film. Those who think it's too long are daft.
F1: this old chestnut has reappeared in the BBC gossip column. Ecclestone's 'eyeing' a two-race format (shorter races). An F1 race is about the length of a football match or film. Those who think it's too long are daft.
I hope he does nothing to disadvantage private space programmes.
Good point. The Big Dumb Government rocket (the Space Launch System) is famously undermissioned (OK, we built it. Er, now what...) and Trump may latch on to the possibilities (to the Moon! Let's capture an asteroid!), funneling funding towards boots and flags instead of the very successful bootstrap private contracts (CCDev et al)
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
Interestingly pretty much all the places I'm seeing that are reporting queues or high participation are strongly right, places that voted Sarko in 2012 etc. West Paris, Vendee and up the Loire Valley, Alpes-Côte d'Azur and along to Nimes etc.
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.
....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.
Even that's not really true.
Hollande is 9% in the polls, Le Pen is 30%.
To go from 9% to 50%, that means Hollande is picking up 41% of the non Le Pen/non Hollande vote, while Le Pen picks up 20%. In other words, he ouperforms her more than 2:1.
It's just he's starting off on a third of her vote share.
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
Currently available on BF at 23/1
If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.
....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.
Even that's not really true.
Hollande is 9% in the polls, Le Pen is 30%.
To go from 9% to 50%, that means Hollande is picking up 41% of the non Le Pen/non Hollande vote, while Le Pen picks up 20%. In other words, he ouperforms her more than 2:1.
It's just he's starting off on a third of her vote share.
Le Pen would win in a race vs Hollande. I don't think it would even be very close. He won't make the run off though.
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.
....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.
Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.
and might have the same outcome. Which would NOT be a good thing.
Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.
....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.
Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.
and might have the same outcome. Which would NOT be a good thing.
Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.
Another woman losing to an annoying loudmouth, huh?
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
Currently available on BF at 23/1
If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.
Think it's probably a good trading bet whoever wins tonight.
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.
....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.
Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.
and might have the same outcome. Which would NOT be a good thing.
Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.
Another woman losing to an annoying loudmouth, huh?
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
Currently available on BF at 23/1
If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.
Think it's probably a good trading bet whoever wins tonight.
MrsB, this is the sort of thing that happens when the centre ground of politics loses common ground with the electorate. Cf not doing anything about Rotherham rapes because of 'cultural sensitivities'.
The mainstream has a duty to recognise and respond to public concerns. There's a risk that the Establishment will close ranks to keep us in the EU, and if that happens I do wonder just what will happen. We're not a step away from the politics of Milo and Clodius, but we're closer than we've been for a long time.
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
Currently available on BF at 23/1
If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.
Think it's probably a good trading bet whoever wins tonight.
Agreed.
Personally I think he's a good bet to go all the way.
So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.
I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.
....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.
Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.
and might have the same outcome. Which would NOT be a good thing.
Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.
Another woman losing to an annoying loudmouth, huh?
no, the mainstream losing to the terrifying
If you have less support than the others then you aren't in the mainstream, you are not in the centre etc.
The mainstream and the centre are where the public put it.
Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?
did he give you a smack?
I got a glare.
Why would Jamie Redknapp glare at me when I complimented his wife's dance last night by saying to him 'I thought your wife was literally on fire on the dance floor tonight'
Now meeting his dad that would have been impressive.... not least as he was at the Lane!
Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians
Currently available on BF at 23/1
If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.
Think it's probably a good trading bet whoever wins tonight.
Agreed.
Personally I think he's a good bet to go all the way.
Re Macron:
If Sarkozy is the LR candidate, he has to be at least a one in three chance, as (a) he beats Le Pen 70:30 in the second round, and (b) he's neck and neck with Sarkozy in the first round.
If Juppe is the candidate, he doesn't have much chance as Bayrou will stand aside and endorse Juppe, pretty much ensuring he is on 25%+ in the first round.
You guys know this is all a side show right? India and Pakistan are on the verge of another war.......
How can India be on the verge of a war when there's an exciting cricket match versus England going on at the moment? I think there needs to be sense of priority here.
Can a boro player please wind up Costa asap... he is on 4 yellows
I'm officially fearful for West Ham's chances this season
Could be worse. I have backed Leicester for relegation. We are looking woeful. Zieler is hopeless in goal and our only decent midfielder is knackered. We are not going to be attractive to signings in Jan, and Mahrez and Slimani are off to the AFCON.
Comments
If the house of Windsor wants to terminate that arrangement, reclaim the Crown Estates, the costs of the civil service, the national debt and so on then it doesn't seem like taxpayers come out worst in that arrangement.
No problem; its an interesting discussion on the Civil List and I felt a little guilty interrupting!
Beat me to it.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2009/oct/08/betfair-banned-france-gambling-law
You probably don't know that the last ex-Klansman Senator was a Democrat, do you?
Sometimes the wisest course of action is to say 'no bet'
What I have never understood is how such legislation is compatible with free movement of goods and services. Eg pokerstars is EU based and licenced in all the various EU countries but have to run segregated player pools for the likes of France.
With regard poker, it is more messed up. All French can only play in these ring fenced games, but non French citizens from some EU can join the pool (but not all EU citizens eg Brits can't, Irish can).
Edit: sorry, my mistake. That would be a myth, not a legend
Why would Jamie Redknapp glare at me when I complimented his wife's dance last night by saying to him 'I thought your wife was literally on fire on the dance floor tonight'
I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.
https://teechip.com/libtears#id=1001&c=000000&sid=beverage-mug
Juppé 3.9 - 4.2
Le Pen 3.9 - 4
François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9
I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.
The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!
And just to say if Ed Balls survives for another week Mother will be holding TSE personally responsible!
I'm not posting spoilers on here, but if anyone does want to know, send me a vanilla message.
“He literally turns into a greyhound”
http://www.parryphernalia.com/?tag=jamie-redknapp
There has been early voting, which will have held Juppe (big early lead) and Sarkozy (more enthused supporters) over Fillon.
If Sarkozy does not win the first round of the primary, it's all over for him. The polls are very clear: Juppe supporters go to Fillon; Fillon supporters go for Juppe.
If it's Juppe vs Fillon, then unless Juppe has a big lead in the first round, I'd expect it to go to Fillon.
So, I either reckon from here it's probably 45% Fillon (with his risk being that he ends up a very close third), 35% Juppe, and 20% Sarkozy (who really has to win the first round by ten percentage points to avoid getting beaten in the second round).
But I am happy that If Juppé makes it through, I will still have effective odds of 1.5 which is fair, and Fillon if he makes it through at 1.3ish, which is a little short, but not a disaster.
Maybe if the Socialists weren't so dire they could get into the run off and be preferred. As happened last time.
The problem with this site is not that it has gamblers
The problem with this site is that it doesn't have enough gamblers
[rant mode off]
(sorry, it's an open sore...)
F1: this old chestnut has reappeared in the BBC gossip column. Ecclestone's 'eyeing' a two-race format (shorter races). An F1 race is about the length of a football match or film. Those who think it's too long are daft.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37971756
Perhaps Singapore will depart the calendar. It's a place where a lot of business gets done, though.
Hollande is 9% in the polls, Le Pen is 30%.
To go from 9% to 50%, that means Hollande is picking up 41% of the non Le Pen/non Hollande vote, while Le Pen picks up 20%. In other words, he ouperforms her more than 2:1.
It's just he's starting off on a third of her vote share.
He's sixth. He has about as much chance in facing Le Pen in the second round as I have of dating Emma Watson*.
* She's not my type.
Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.
The mainstream has a duty to recognise and respond to public concerns. There's a risk that the Establishment will close ranks to keep us in the EU, and if that happens I do wonder just what will happen. We're not a step away from the politics of Milo and Clodius, but we're closer than we've been for a long time.
The mainstream and the centre are where the public put it.
I would like to think under those circumstances British voters would opt for Jezza.
If Sarkozy is the LR candidate, he has to be at least a one in three chance, as (a) he beats Le Pen 70:30 in the second round, and (b) he's neck and neck with Sarkozy in the first round.
If Juppe is the candidate, he doesn't have much chance as Bayrou will stand aside and endorse Juppe, pretty much ensuring he is on 25%+ in the first round.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox
The highs and lows of following Citeh!