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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voti
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In today’s unique national primary French Republicans are voting on who’ll be the one to take on Marine Le Pen
There’s a unique election taking place in France today with members of the public who declare themselves to be Republican party supporters able to vote in a national primary to decide who’ll be the flag-carrier next April.
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If the house of Windsor wants to terminate that arrangement, reclaim the Crown Estates, the costs of the civil service, the national debt and so on then it doesn't seem like taxpayers come out worst in that arrangement.
No problem; its an interesting discussion on the Civil List and I felt a little guilty interrupting!
Beat me to it.
The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,
Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON
Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2009/oct/08/betfair-banned-france-gambling-law
You probably don't know that the last ex-Klansman Senator was a Democrat, do you?
Sometimes the wisest course of action is to say 'no bet'
What I have never understood is how such legislation is compatible with free movement of goods and services. Eg pokerstars is EU based and licenced in all the various EU countries but have to run segregated player pools for the likes of France.
With regard poker, it is more messed up. All French can only play in these ring fenced games, but non French citizens from some EU can join the pool (but not all EU citizens eg Brits can't, Irish can).
Edit: sorry, my mistake. That would be a myth, not a legend
Why would Jamie Redknapp glare at me when I complimented his wife's dance last night by saying to him 'I thought your wife was literally on fire on the dance floor tonight'
I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.
https://teechip.com/libtears#id=1001&c=000000&sid=beverage-mug
Juppé 3.9 - 4.2
Le Pen 3.9 - 4
François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9
I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.
The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!
And just to say if Ed Balls survives for another week Mother will be holding TSE personally responsible!
I'm not posting spoilers on here, but if anyone does want to know, send me a vanilla message.
“He literally turns into a greyhound”
http://www.parryphernalia.com/?tag=jamie-redknapp
There has been early voting, which will have held Juppe (big early lead) and Sarkozy (more enthused supporters) over Fillon.
If Sarkozy does not win the first round of the primary, it's all over for him. The polls are very clear: Juppe supporters go to Fillon; Fillon supporters go for Juppe.
If it's Juppe vs Fillon, then unless Juppe has a big lead in the first round, I'd expect it to go to Fillon.
So, I either reckon from here it's probably 45% Fillon (with his risk being that he ends up a very close third), 35% Juppe, and 20% Sarkozy (who really has to win the first round by ten percentage points to avoid getting beaten in the second round).
But I am happy that If Juppé makes it through, I will still have effective odds of 1.5 which is fair, and Fillon if he makes it through at 1.3ish, which is a little short, but not a disaster.
Maybe if the Socialists weren't so dire they could get into the run off and be preferred. As happened last time.
The problem with this site is not that it has gamblers
The problem with this site is that it doesn't have enough gamblers
[rant mode off]
(sorry, it's an open sore...)
F1: this old chestnut has reappeared in the BBC gossip column. Ecclestone's 'eyeing' a two-race format (shorter races). An F1 race is about the length of a football match or film. Those who think it's too long are daft.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37971756
Perhaps Singapore will depart the calendar. It's a place where a lot of business gets done, though.
Hollande is 9% in the polls, Le Pen is 30%.
To go from 9% to 50%, that means Hollande is picking up 41% of the non Le Pen/non Hollande vote, while Le Pen picks up 20%. In other words, he ouperforms her more than 2:1.
It's just he's starting off on a third of her vote share.
He's sixth. He has about as much chance in facing Le Pen in the second round as I have of dating Emma Watson*.
* She's not my type.
Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.
The mainstream has a duty to recognise and respond to public concerns. There's a risk that the Establishment will close ranks to keep us in the EU, and if that happens I do wonder just what will happen. We're not a step away from the politics of Milo and Clodius, but we're closer than we've been for a long time.
The mainstream and the centre are where the public put it.
I would like to think under those circumstances British voters would opt for Jezza.
If Sarkozy is the LR candidate, he has to be at least a one in three chance, as (a) he beats Le Pen 70:30 in the second round, and (b) he's neck and neck with Sarkozy in the first round.
If Juppe is the candidate, he doesn't have much chance as Bayrou will stand aside and endorse Juppe, pretty much ensuring he is on 25%+ in the first round.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox
The highs and lows of following Citeh!