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FPT: Incidentally the monarchists here seem to have forgotten the flipside of why the Crown Estates were handed to Parliament in exchange for the Civil List. Until that was done the Crown Estates were used by the monarch to pay for the Civil Service, the military and other functions of government.

If the house of Windsor wants to terminate that arrangement, reclaim the Crown Estates, the costs of the civil service, the national debt and so on then it doesn't seem like taxpayers come out worst in that arrangement.

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...

IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.

The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...

IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.

The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,

I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?

In this context, yes it is.

Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2009/oct/08/betfair-banned-france-gambling-law

murali_s said:

PlatoSaid said:

Chris Snyder
Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON

I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.

We can but hope.

It's still almost impossible for Le Pen to win if she faces a Republican in Round 2. If she faces a Socialist, things are much more interesting.

GeoffM said:

murali_s said:

PlatoSaid said:

Chris Snyder
Here's who expected to meet with President-elect Trump today in Bedminster, NJ https://t.co/pExmW6Z9ON

I wonder whether a representative of the KKK will be in Trump's new team? That's in addition to the white supremacist and total dickhead, Chris Bannon.

Unlikely, unless he is going to be recruiting Democrats.
You probably don't know that the last ex-Klansman Senator was a Democrat, do you?

Yes, Robert Byrd is a totally obscure American political figure who no one will have heard of. Roll eyes emoticon.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I had this discussion with Mike and Shadsy ages ago, for me, an addict is someone who will bet because they have a need to do so.

Sometimes the wisest course of action is to say 'no bet'

Perhaps the definition fits David Cameron. He kept needing to up the stakes to get a bigger hit.

Still buzzing

Luckyguy1983 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

It's not just the French that have some sort of ring fenced gambling in EU. Spain, Italy and Portugal also do as well.

What I have never understood is how such legislation is compatible with free movement of goods and services.

It would be interesting to know if there are French gamblong websites doing the same thing. If not, I can see justification even if it's not legal under EU law.

All online gambling is ring fenced in France, regardless of the company offering.

With regard poker, it is more messed up. All French can only play in these ring fenced games, but non French citizens from some EU can join the pool (but not all EU citizens eg Brits can't, Irish can).

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

a winning captain?

Edit: sorry, my mistake. That would be a myth, not a legend

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

Ohhhhhhhhhhh....

MarqueeMark said:

Knowing how OGH likes politics mugs for his thread headers, and with Xmas coming up:

https://teechip.com/libtears#id=1001&c=000000&sid=beverage-mug

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

So you know about Ed's future?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

I thought you'd met Jamie Redknapp :-)

Barnesian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

So you know about Ed's future?

I do.

I'm not posting spoilers on here, but if anyone does want to know, send me a vanilla message.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Why are people in France unable to access Britain's betting sites? So much for a Single Market ...

IIRC it is the exchanges like Betfair and spread betting the French aren't allowed to bet with.

The French cited a British report that found that 10% of people that bet via the spreads/exchanges develop gambling problems for their ban,

I would have thought a proportion of all gamblers develop gambling problems. Is 10% that extraordinary?

In this context, yes it is.

Passing the amendment, the French parliament also referred to a 2007 report from the British Gambling Commission that said 9.8% of punters using betting exchanges developed gambling addictions, compared to a rate of between one and three per cent among the general gambling population.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2009/oct/08/betfair-banned-france-gambling-law

Would it be fair to suggest that some people on this site are gambling addicts? Or does an addict have to lose money?

I had this discussion with Mike and Shadsy ages ago, for me, an addict is someone who will bet because they have a need to do so.

Sometimes the wisest course of action is to say 'no bet'

From a medical perspective an addict would be someone where the activity adversely affected their physical, psychological or social health (ie the physical or psychological health of family, workplace etc)

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

Barnesian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

So you know about Ed's future?

Yes, he knows...

And just to say if Ed Balls survives for another week Mother will be holding TSE personally responsible!

I didn't vote last night. I had to hand over my mobile before the show, and didn't get it back until well after filming.

Hmmmmm....

Dromedary said:

Betfair:
Juppé 3.9 - 4.2
Le Pen 3.9 - 4
François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9

I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.

The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!

This is round one of the primary.

There has been early voting, which will have held Juppe (big early lead) and Sarkozy (more enthused supporters) over Fillon.

If Sarkozy does not win the first round of the primary, it's all over for him. The polls are very clear: Juppe supporters go to Fillon; Fillon supporters go for Juppe.

If it's Juppe vs Fillon, then unless Juppe has a big lead in the first round, I'd expect it to go to Fillon.

So, I either reckon from here it's probably 45% Fillon (with his risk being that he ends up a very close third), 35% Juppe, and 20% Sarkozy (who really has to win the first round by ten percentage points to avoid getting beaten in the second round).

Sean_F said:

It's still almost impossible for Le Pen to win if she faces a Republican in Round 2. If she faces a Socialist, things are much more interesting.

And if she faces Melechon, which is entirely possible, she's likely to win at a canter.

rcs1000 said:

Dromedary said:

Betfair:
Juppé 3.9 - 4.2
Le Pen 3.9 - 4
François Fillon 2.84 - 2.9

I tipped Fillon when he was at 5.7 on Friday morning. He's already the favourite, but I'm staying on him, because Juppé and Sarkozy are dead in the water and there probably won't be a big move in Le Pen's price in the next few weeks. When he wins the Republican primary, Fillon will probably come in past 1.5.

The only problem with this market is how damned small it is. Other than that, it's beautiful!

This is round one of the primary.

There has been early voting, which will have held Juppe (big early lead) and Sarkozy (more enthused supporters) over Fillon.

If Sarkozy does not win the first round of the primary, it's all over for him. The polls are very clear: Juppe supporters go to Fillon; Fillon supporters go for Juppe.

If it's Juppe vs Fillon, then unless Juppe has a big lead in the first round, I'd expect it to go to Fillon.

So, I either reckon from here it's probably 45% Fillon (with his risk being that he ends up a very close third), 35% Juppe, and 20% Sarkozy (who really has to win the first round by ten percentage points to avoid getting beaten in the second round).

I have stopped digging myself further into a hole on this market.

But I am happy that If Juppé makes it through, I will still have effective odds of 1.5 which is fair, and Fillon if he makes it through at 1.3ish, which is a little short, but not a disaster.

old_labour said:

Donald Trump expected to slash Nasa's climate change budget in favour of sending humans back to the moon - and beyond

I hope he does nothing to disadvantage private space programmes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

You, not a VIP???

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

F1: this old chestnut has reappeared in the BBC gossip column. Ecclestone's 'eyeing' a two-race format (shorter races). An F1 race is about the length of a football match or film. Those who think it's too long are daft.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/37971756

No more Singapore GP?

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.

I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters Voters just hate Hollande.

Corrected that for you

TheScreamingEagles said:

MarqueeMark said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Still buzzing

Did you see my post from this earlier on this morning about how I met a Spurs legend last night?

Where was you sitting? I thought I might have spotted you sitting around two rows back from Claudia's family wearing a longish white shirt?

Nope, those floor seats were for VIPs and family.

I was stuck in the cheap seats on the next floor up.

You, not a VIP???

I'm a Tory at a BBC event, I'm amazed they even let me in.

Maybe if you were still Brian Blessed....

Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians

Interestingly pretty much all the places I'm seeing that are reporting queues or high participation are strongly right, places that voted Sarko in 2012 etc. West Paris, Vendee and up the Loire Valley, Alpes-Côte d'Azur and along to Nimes etc.

franklyn said:

Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians

Currently available on BF at 23/1

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.

I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.

....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.

Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.

Hollande is currently polling behind (1) Le Pen, (2) the Les Republicains candidate, (3) Macron, (4) Melenchon, and (5) Bayrou.

He's sixth. He has about as much chance in facing Le Pen in the second round as I have of dating Emma Watson*.

* She's not my type.

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.

I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.

....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.

Even that's not really true.

Hollande is 9% in the polls, Le Pen is 30%.

To go from 9% to 50%, that means Hollande is picking up 41% of the non Le Pen/non Hollande vote, while Le Pen picks up 20%. In other words, he ouperforms her more than 2:1.

It's just he's starting off on a third of her vote share.

Le Pen would win in a race vs Hollande. I don't think it would even be very close. He won't make the run off though.

MrsB said:

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.

I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.

....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.

Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.

and might have the same outcome. Which would NOT be a good thing.

Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.

Another woman losing to an annoying loudmouth, huh?

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/800375660904677378

rcs1000 said:

MrsB said:

MaxPB said:

SandyRentool said:

rcs1000 said:

SandyRentool said:

So in France, Socialists would prefer a Republican to Le Pen, but Republicans would prefer Le Pen to a Socialist. Says it all.

I don't think that's true at all. Les Republicans supporters just hate Hollande.

....and would prefer a Fascist to Hollande.

Hollande vs Le Pen would be the same as Hillary vs Donald. Shit vs shit.

and might have the same outcome. Which would NOT be a good thing.

Slightly o/t but still related, I never thought I would see the day when it would be necessary for a leading Jew in the US to say he would self declare as a Muslim out of solidarity because a president was bringing in compulsory registration of Muslims. What a messed up world. A lot of things have died in 2016. One of them has to be Godwin's law. You have to be able to compare people to Nazis if they are actually behaving like Nazis.

Another woman losing to an annoying loudmouth, huh?

no, the mainstream losing to the terrifying

MrsB, this is the sort of thing that happens when the centre ground of politics loses common ground with the electorate. Cf not doing anything about Rotherham rapes because of 'cultural sensitivities'.

The mainstream has a duty to recognise and respond to public concerns. There's a risk that the Establishment will close ranks to keep us in the EU, and if that happens I do wonder just what will happen. We're not a step away from the politics of Milo and Clodius, but we're closer than we've been for a long time.

rcs1000 said:

BudG said:

rcs1000 said:

BudG said:

franklyn said:

Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians

Currently available on BF at 23/1

If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.

Think it's probably a good trading bet whoever wins tonight.

Agreed.

Personally I think he's a good bet to go all the way.

perdix said:

FPT - Tony Blair and his ilk are responsible for the UK voting to leave the EU.

You don't think the Conservatives and right wing press blaming every ill on the EU for the last 30 years had any effect?

Today in 1845, Anglo-French forces blockaded the Rio de la Plata, probably the first Anglo-French military operation since the 16th century.

Can a boro player please wind up Costa asap... he is on 4 yellows

You guys know this is all a side show right? India and Pakistan are on the verge of another war.......

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

BudG said:

rcs1000 said:

BudG said:

franklyn said:

Based on a conversation that I had last week with some French friends, I placed a bet on Emmanuel Macron when he was 20-1.His odds have narrowed since then. The French are totally disillusioned with their politicians

Currently available on BF at 23/1

If you think Sarkozy will win tonight, that's quite a good trading bet.

Think it's probably a good trading bet whoever wins tonight.

Agreed.

Personally I think he's a good bet to go all the way.

Re Macron:

If Sarkozy is the LR candidate, he has to be at least a one in three chance, as (a) he beats Le Pen 70:30 in the second round, and (b) he's neck and neck with Sarkozy in the first round.

If Juppe is the candidate, he doesn't have much chance as Bayrou will stand aside and endorse Juppe, pretty much ensuring he is on 25%+ in the first round.

rcs1000 said:

nunu said:

You guys know this is all a side show right? India and Pakistan are on the verge of another war.......

Does this affect the plans to recreate the former British Empire as a trading bloc?

rcs1000 said:

nunu said:

You guys know this is all a side show right? India and Pakistan are on the verge of another war.......

Does this affect the plans to recreate the former British Empire as a trading bloc?

Not necessarily:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902/sandbox

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Can a boro player please wind up Costa asap... he is on 4 yellows

I'm officially fearful for West Ham's chances this season

Could be worse. I have backed Leicester for relegation. We are looking woeful. Zieler is hopeless in goal and our only decent midfielder is knackered. We are not going to be attractive to signings in Jan, and Mahrez and Slimani are off to the AFCON.

The highs and lows of following Citeh!