There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
"Brexit would be difficult enough even with Canning or Talleyrand as foreign secretary. But Johnson’s flippancy threatens to make it impossible. He is doing real damage. British voters did something on 23 June that others see as immensely and irredeemably destructive, and we have sent a narcissist to tell the world what we now stand for. It’s hardly surprising that serious-minded Europeans – and yes, of course, some of them lack even a grain of self-awareness – find this intolerable, and that some want to punish us and him as a result."
"The May government’s Brexit policy is, as the prime minister put it again this week, to have 'the best possible trading deal with the European Union once we have left'. Yet Johnson only gets in the way of this effort. Telling Europeans not to worry about Donald Trump is patronising. Describing free movement as “bollocks” is insulting. Talking as if Italy’s only export is prosecco is infantile. Telling his Czech opposite number that the UK will leave the customs union and still be part of the single market is stupid or a lie or both."
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE
How many 2015 LD voters were there in each poll?
around 100
The MoE must surely be pretty big on those percentages then?
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.
For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
Manuka honey.
Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.
Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
Thanks for all the cold remedy tips. The pizza was washed down with several strong hot toddies. My other half's Granddad was a pharmacist who sold lots of cold remedies, but only ever let his family have the whisky cure!
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
They can if they asked different people but shouldn't be if they used the same data set
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
OK, so your emphatic "nope" was not actually correct?
The cruise missile question was a Yes Prime Minister gag.
I picked up the textbook (a compendium of essays) to check if my memory was correct.
I found several essays that covered a range of 80s causes - no prizes for guessing when this stuff was written. Using mathematics to teach about the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Using mathematics to teach about squatting (!) in Ecuador (!). Using mathematics to teach about minke whales, using an information pack from the WWF. Teaching multicultural mathematics.
No trace, though, of the essay I was looking for. Perhaps my head had made it all up!
Put it back in the bookshelf only to discover there was actually a second compendium of essays I had had to read and discuss during teacher training. This was even thicker, with several essays about teaching mathematics in a socio-economic context! Eventually found the one that I wanted.
There it was. Compare the size of the defence budget to the health budget and to overseas aid. What do you conclude?
Amongst other gems of great PB interest, such as "best buys" (maths questions usually discuss "which cereal pack is the better value, given their weight and price?" but should we not really be asking "how much does the packaging cost? Do low-income shoppers have to buy poor-value packets because they can't afford the larger ones?"), "gambling" (maths questions often discuss probabilities and odds of events e.g. in a lottery, but shouldn't we also discuss why gambling is profitable for betting companies, how much ordinary people lose gambling, and correlations with poverty) and "the electoral system" (instead of just looking at election results in terms of statistics to analyse, shouldn't we also cover unfairness e.g. sex ratio in parliament, and issues with FPTP? What are the alternatives to FPTP, are they mathematically "fairer"?).
The particular sub-example I remembered was there in black and white: compare the cost of a scud (!!!!) missile with the cost of an X-ray machine! Then the even more alarming question of how many bone marrow transplants could be paid for, for the cost of one scud missile?
Good grief. Another age. Hope @HurstLlama is reading this thread. Not sure if we went through teacher-training in the same era but I imagine he will recognise some of the issues raised in this post :-)
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
Yougov work with bigger samples (roughly double a Mori) so their MoE is smaller, surely?
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
OK, so your emphatic "nope" was not actually correct?
There is plenty of data from these pollsters over the last 3/4 months which shows a clear discrepancy in these particular findings with Yougov having rather different findings . So my NOPE is very factually correct even if does not suit your meme
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
Yougov work with bigger samples (roughly double a Mori) so their MoE is smaller, surely?
The latest Yougov had a bit smaller than normal sample size , surely you know enough about MoE calculations that it is not that dependent on sample sizes .
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
OK, so your emphatic "nope" was not actually correct?
There is plenty of data from these pollsters over the last 3/4 months which shows a clear discrepancy in these particular findings with Yougov having rather different findings . So my NOPE is very factually correct even if does not suit your meme
Care to post your figures for us to look at? I still question the validity of looking at subsamples of subsamples.
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
Yougov work with bigger samples (roughly double a Mori) so their MoE is smaller, surely?
The latest Yougov had a bit smaller than normal sample size , surely you know enough about MoE calculations that it is not that dependent on sample sizes .
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
Yougov work with bigger samples (roughly double a Mori) so their MoE is smaller, surely?
The latest Yougov had a bit smaller than normal sample size , surely you know enough about MoE calculations that it is not that dependent on sample sizes .
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
The ICM figure is in the low 50's - don't knows do not equal vote retention. Can't be bothered to look at Mori (remain win by 8)
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
And the MoE is just as large with Yougov but it does not stop you quoting the figures when it suits you
Yougov work with bigger samples (roughly double a Mori) so their MoE is smaller, surely?
The latest Yougov had a bit smaller than normal sample size , surely you know enough about MoE calculations that it is not that dependent on sample sizes .
Margin of error not dependent on sample size?
not THAT dependent
But when you are talking about a subsample of 100?
But I do wonder about the "true" margin of error nowadays, as most attempted contacts with voters end up with non respondents, when you add in differential response, and also the fact people just plain lie (About actually heading out to vote) - the TRUE MoE on even a series of polls is higher than the given figure.
We are not picking a mixed sample of ~ 1000 ballots randomly mixed after the event.
Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
Leaving an unanswered question in case a pretext is needed for delay further down the road?
Reports say that Sturgeon's case is that the ability to revoke A50 should be defined by the ECJ before invoking it. No idea if the Courts will refer it to the ECJ.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
Leaving an unanswered question in case a pretext is needed for delay further down the road?
Reports say that Sturgeon's case is that the ability to revoke A50 should be defined by the ECJ before invoking it. No idea if the Courts will refer it to the ECJ.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Am I right in assuming there is nothing stopping the Government going ahead with the bill, regardless of any legal action (since they can just change the law to make Article 50 declaration legal under any circumstances)
Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
Leaving an unanswered question in case a pretext is needed for delay further down the road?
Reports say that Sturgeon's case is that the ability to revoke A50 should be defined by the ECJ before invoking it. No idea if the Courts will refer it to the ECJ.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Am I right in assuming there is nothing stopping the Government going ahead with the bill, regardless of any legal action (since they can just change the law to make Article 50 declaration legal under any circumstances)
I am not qualified to give an opinion but it does seem that this process could become chaotic and cause really serious division. There is a report tonight that another Supreme Court judge has been compromised by public comments made by his wife's pro euro stance
Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
Leaving an unanswered question in case a pretext is needed for delay further down the road?
Reports say that Sturgeon's case is that the ability to revoke A50 should be defined by the ECJ before invoking it. No idea if the Courts will refer it to the ECJ.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Am I right in assuming there is nothing stopping the Government going ahead with the bill, regardless of any legal action (since they can just change the law to make Article 50 declaration legal under any circumstances)
I am not qualified to give an opinion but it does seem that this process could become chaotic and cause really serious division. There is a report tonight that another Supreme Court judge has been compromised by public comments made by his wife's pro euro stance
Hm, I'm less bothered by someone's spouse talking about something, than I am about a supreme court judge publicly talking about a case they have yet to sit in judgment on.
Barack Obama - out Hillary Clinton - out Donald Trump - in Vladimir Putin - in Angela Merkel - in Conservative Party -in Labour Party - in Liberal Democrats - in UKIP - in SNP - in Theresa May - in Boris Johnson - in David Davis - in Phillip Hammond - in Jeremy Corbyn - in (amusement value) Tim Farron - out (irrelevance) David Cameron - out
On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?
If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.
Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?
I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
Depends on how the 15% is distributed across constituencies ...
Here's a question for the statisticians. When the MoE is 3-5%, and the electorate is split roughly 48.x/51.y, and there are known difficulties getting a truly representative sample and people lie about/misremember their past voting, just how useful are the polls?
Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
Leaving an unanswered question in case a pretext is needed for delay further down the road?
Reports say that Sturgeon's case is that the ability to revoke A50 should be defined by the ECJ before invoking it. No idea if the Courts will refer it to the ECJ.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Am I right in assuming there is nothing stopping the Government going ahead with the bill, regardless of any legal action (since they can just change the law to make Article 50 declaration legal under any circumstances)
There appears to be some doubt over whether passing a short Bill would be enough to trigger Article 50 in Parliament. Hence it makes sense to wait a few weeks to see if the appeal succeeds and the Executive can trigger it?
(Since it probably wouldn't be triggered before the end of March in any event.)
Here's a question for the statisticians. When the MoE is 3-5%, and the electorate is split roughly 48.x/51.y, and there are known difficulties getting a truly representative sample and people lie about/misremember their past voting, just how useful are the polls?
Well the polls should tell you it is close, but if you need to know WHERE the vote is (As in US/UK GEs) then that chocolate teapot might be worth having a word with.
shouldn't we also discuss why gambling is profitable for betting companies
That at least is an extremely good question for teaching purposes. A pupil who has understood that has understood something very important about statistics, probability and sampling sizes.
The maths question I would like an answer to is: "Florida has a population of 19.9 million. Michigan has a population of 9.9 million. If it takes Florida four hours to count the votes in an election, how long does it take Michigan?"
Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
Leaving an unanswered question in case a pretext is needed for delay further down the road?
Reports say that Sturgeon's case is that the ability to revoke A50 should be defined by the ECJ before invoking it. No idea if the Courts will refer it to the ECJ.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Am I right in assuming there is nothing stopping the Government going ahead with the bill, regardless of any legal action (since they can just change the law to make Article 50 declaration legal under any circumstances)
There appears to be some doubt over whether passing a short Bill would be enough to trigger Article 50 in Parliament. Hence it makes sense to wait a few weeks to see if the appeal succeeds and the Executive can trigger it?
(Since it probably wouldn't be triggered before the end of March in any event.)
Why would there be any doubt? Parliament makes the rules.
That. A supreme court judge should discuss or offer opinions before a case of such contention is appalling. In my mind that makes them unfit to hold office.
Formally asked my future mother in law permission today, I have to be baptised. Which means I need a baptised name. Any suggestions?
Cajetan is a good Christian name.
They are reformed church, not sure the MiL would be happy with a catholic saint. She's pretty serious about this stuff as well. I was thinking of my namesake, Maximilian Kolbe, patron saint of drug addicts and persecuted journalists, but it's a bit boring.
Formally asked my future mother in law permission today, I have to be baptised. Which means I need a baptised name. Any suggestions?
Well you always try Max, or whatever you name is now - that works for most people. If you really want a change, how about Thomas, a good name for a doubting Christian and you can boast that you are named after HurtsLlama's cat.
Since most on the left expect a Trump Presidency to fail, here's a nightmare for you; it's so-so, he doesn't look scary to suburbanites, 0 replies . 17 retweets 27 likes Brandon Finnigan @B_M_Finnigan 22h
@B_M_Finnigan and he not only wins re-election, but the popular vote, easily. Want to venture what that map looks like? 0 replies . 9 retweets 22 likes
Barack Obama - out Hillary Clinton - out Donald Trump - in Vladimir Putin - in Angela Merkel - in Conservative Party -in Labour Party - in Liberal Democrats - in UKIP - in SNP - in Theresa May - in Boris Johnson - in David Davis - in Phillip Hammond - in Jeremy Corbyn - in (amusement value) Tim Farron - out (irrelevance) David Cameron - out
New picks:
Renzo Le Pen Trudeau Paul Ryan
I agree with most of your suggestions apart from the following: I would remove David Davis - he is relatively unimportant in HMG. I would add Nicola Sturgeon. I presume by Le Pen you mean Marine, given that she is a front-runner for the French presidency, rather than her father or niece. Canada and Italy are not important countries, nor are they prominent in the public perception, so I would not add Renzi or Trudeau.
I also have to pick hymns to be sung in a church wedding. It really will be like school. So far I've got Jerusalem and I Vow To Thee, My Country.
Max, to get the best chance of people actually singing, rather standing there in embarrassed silence, you will need hymns that they are likely to know from childhood. Then the words need to be appropriate for the occasion. For a wedding I would suggest:
Dear Lord and father of mankind (which has the magnificently appropriate second line, "Forgive our foolish ways"
and
Lord of all hopefulness, lord of all Joy (which has the second line, "Whose trust, ever childlike, no cares could destroy)
"I Vow to thee my country" is, in my view, suitable for a funeral but not a wedding, unless you are royalty.
Since most on the left expect a Trump Presidency to fail, here's a nightmare for you; it's so-so, he doesn't look scary to suburbanites, 0 replies . 17 retweets 27 likes Brandon Finnigan @B_M_Finnigan 22h
@B_M_Finnigan and he not only wins re-election, but the popular vote, easily. Want to venture what that map looks like? 0 replies . 9 retweets 22 likes
I also have to pick hymns to be sung in a church wedding. It really will be like school. So far I've got Jerusalem and I Vow To Thee, My Country.
Max, to get the best chance of people actually singing, rather standing there in embarrassed silence, you will need hymns that they are likely to know from childhood. Then the words need to be appropriate for the occasion. For a wedding I would suggest:
Dear Lord and father of mankind (which has the magnificently appropriate second line, "Forgive our foolish ways"
and
Lord of all hopefulness, lord of all Joy (which has the second line, "Whose trust, ever childlike, no cares could destroy)
"I Vow to thee my country" is, in my view, suitable for a funeral but not a wedding, unless you are royalty.
P.S. "All things bright and beautiful" goes down well on all occasions - we sung it at a good mate's funeral last year and everyone was smiling by the end of the hymn.
Thanks for the suggestions I've added them to the list, I'll run them by the MiL at some point. On I Vow To Thee My Country, I would only include it bexause my partner really loves Jupiter by Holst.
shouldn't we also discuss why gambling is profitable for betting companies
That at least is an extremely good question for teaching purposes. A pupil who has understood that has understood something very important about statistics, probability and sampling sizes.
Actually few of them were utterly stupid questions mathematically - the worst, contextually, stemmed from a peculiar belief that the British military in the 1980s was armed to the teeth with scud missiles, and that if you scrap X missiles then you can perform those Y bone marrow transplants that have been put on hold for funding reasons.
It was more the author's perspective that this reweighting of perspectives would restore neutrality to the curriculum which I found amusing. And I say this as someone broadly sympathetic to the author's worldview, albeit not comfortable with using a classroom to express it.
I also have to pick hymns to be sung in a church wedding. It really will be like school. So far I've got Jerusalem and I Vow To Thee, My Country.
I would be wary about having both of those. They are very much at the nationalist end of the CofE hymnbook, really singing for the sake of singing rather than celebrating a day of love or the Christianity of the church; I've certainly known vicars who will refuse to have them. Have one maybe (preferably Jerusalem, which is a great proto-socialist anthem) but not both.
There is an alternative set of words to the Holst tune specially written for a wedding ("We pledge to one another / before the Lord above") which is very much more suitable and worth considering.
Much of it depends on your congregation - how "churched" they are. If enough of them are regular attenders then you can have something really good, like All My Hope on God is Founded. (We had Vaughan Williams' superb Salve Festa Dies at ours.) Praise My Soul the King of Heaven usually goes well. Morning Has Broken: please no. But my top suggestion would be Guide Me O Thou Great Redeemer (to Cwm Rhondda, of course).
On topic: Ed Balls absolutely should be part of the favourability index.
Barack Obama - out Hillary Clinton - out Donald Trump - in Vladimir Putin - in Angela Merkel - in Conservative Party -in Labour Party - in Liberal Democrats - in UKIP - in SNP - in Theresa May - in Boris Johnson - in David Davis - in Phillip Hammond - in Jeremy Corbyn - in (amusement value) Tim Farron - out (irrelevance) David Cameron - out
New picks:
Renzo Le Pen Trudeau Paul Ryan
I agree with most of your suggestions apart from the following: I would remove David Davis - he is relatively unimportant in HMG. I would add Nicola Sturgeon. I presume by Le Pen you mean Marine, given that she is a front-runner for the French presidency, rather than her father or niece. Canada and Italy are not important countries, nor are they prominent in the public perception, so I would not add Renzi or Trudeau.
Barack Obama - out Hillary Clinton - out Donald Trump - in Vladimir Putin - in Angela Merkel - in Conservative Party -in Labour Party - in Liberal Democrats - in UKIP - in SNP - in Theresa May - in Boris Johnson - in David Davis - in Phillip Hammond - in Jeremy Corbyn - in (amusement value) Tim Farron - out (irrelevance) David Cameron - out
New picks:
Renzo Le Pen Trudeau Paul Ryan
hmm, keep Tim Farron in - let's see if he is making any impact in he general public. Don't bother with Renzi, no-one will have real opinions on him.
Remove David Davis, add in Farage, add in Juncker, add in Keir Starmer, add in John McDonnell, add in Clive Lewis (let's get an idea of how the public view non-corbyn corbynistas)
I also have to pick hymns to be sung in a church wedding. It really will be like school. So far I've got Jerusalem and I Vow To Thee, My Country.
Max, to get the best chance of people actually singing, rather standing there in embarrassed silence, you will need hymns that they are likely to know from childhood. Then the words need to be appropriate for the occasion. For a wedding I would suggest:
Dear Lord and father of mankind (which has the magnificently appropriate second line, "Forgive our foolish ways"
and
Lord of all hopefulness, lord of all Joy (which has the second line, "Whose trust, ever childlike, no cares could destroy)
"I Vow to thee my country" is, in my view, suitable for a funeral but not a wedding, unless you are royalty.
P.S. "All things bright and beautiful" goes down well on all occasions - we sung it at a good mate's funeral last year and everyone was smiling by the end of the hymn.
If the deceased spent their earthly life, or at least the final acts of it, as a fully paid-up member of the God squad, "What a friend we have in Jesus" is a lovely funeral hymn. It's in the happy-hopeful-peaceful vein, which seems appropriate when the deceased felt they had a relationship with the Almighty, and is reflective enough for a funeral without being at all downbeat. It also is light on the supernatural stuff, so less embarrassment for those unbelievers singing along uncomfortably. Most of them could probably even sign up to it, on an "isn't it nice the poor old dear had their imaginary friend to comfort them?" vein.
Fair go, Mr. Ears, I would agree with all you said. What made the singing of all things bright and beautiful at my mate's funeral so delicious was who he was and who the people singing it were. I served with him for a few years and then our paths diverged, though we remained lifelong friends. His path took him off to serve with the Hooligans from Hereford for twenty-odd years. So you can imagine the hard-bitten bunch of blokes that were at the funeral (standing room only) and there they all were belting out that fine children's hymn.
When my time comes I have left instructions: no hymns, no music, no eulogy; just prayers for the dead in fifteen minutes maximum and then everyone off down to the pub (I have made provision in my will to pay for the drinks).
Fair go, Mr. Ears, I would agree with all you said. What made the singing of all things bright and beautiful at my mate's funeral so delicious was who he was and who the people singing it were. I served with him for a few years and then our paths diverged, though we remained lifelong friends. His path took him off to serve with the Hooligans from Hereford for twenty-odd years. So you can imagine the hard-bitten bunch of blokes that were at the funeral (standing room only) and there they all were belting out that fine children's hymn.
When my time comes I have left instructions: no hymns, no music, no eulogy; just prayers for the dead in fifteen minutes maximum and then everyone off down to the pub (I have made provision in my will to pay for the drinks).
Very decent idea. Not sure they'll let you get away without, at least, a brief eulogy. They might be able to get away with it by shoehorning it into the form of a prayer, or the introduction to one. Lovely anecdote by the way. Gains something from knowing the "special" nature of the crowd!
Did you spot my posts downthread? Wondered if they would spark some memories of your days being subjected to teacher training!
There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters . Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% . They cant all be correct .
Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
NOPE
How many 2015 LD voters were there in each poll?
around 100
Bloody hell, that was lucky to get all of them............
I also have to pick hymns to be sung in a church wedding. It really will be like school. So far I've got Jerusalem and I Vow To Thee, My Country.
I would be wary about having both of those. They are very much at the nationalist end of the CofE hymnbook, really singing for the sake of singing rather than celebrating a day of love or the Christianity of the church; I've certainly known vicars who will refuse to have them. Have one maybe (preferably Jerusalem, which is a great proto-socialist anthem) but not both.
There is an alternative set of words to the Holst tune specially written for a wedding ("We pledge to one another / before the Lord above") which is very much more suitable and worth considering.
Much of it depends on your congregation - how "churched" they are. If enough of them are regular attenders then you can have something really good, like All My Hope on God is Founded. (We had Vaughan Williams' superb Salve Festa Dies at ours.) Praise My Soul the King of Heaven usually goes well. Morning Has Broken: please no. But my top suggestion would be Guide Me O Thou Great Redeemer (to Cwm Rhondda, of course).
On topic: Ed Balls absolutely should be part of the favourability index.
I take the view that if a couple have been engaging in fornication they ought to be barred from a Church Wedding anyway. Were I a vicar I certainly would not marry them. To do otherwise exposes the church to ridicule and hypocrisy!
Last poll published before the legal ban - Ipsos for Le Monde
Fillon 30 (+8 since last Sunday) Juppe 29 (-7) Sarkozy 29 (=) Le Maire 5 (-2) NKM 3.5 (+0.5) Poisson 2 (=) Cope 1.5 (+0.5)
The last poll is the first to have another leader than Juppe and he is not at all sure to qualify. I am beginning to think he could get ousted in the first round which was totally unthinkable two weeks ago. It would be an enormous surprise, of the magnitude of Brexit. Juppe has basically the support of most media and of the top civil servants. They would probably switch to Macron if Juppe is out.
I also have to pick hymns to be sung in a church wedding. It really will be like school. So far I've got Jerusalem and I Vow To Thee, My Country.
I would be wary about having both of those. They are very much at the nationalist end of the CofE hymnbook, really singing for the sake of singing rather than celebrating a day of love or the Christianity of the church; I've certainly known vicars who will refuse to have them. Have one maybe (preferably Jerusalem, which is a great proto-socialist anthem) but not both.
There is an alternative set of words to the Holst tune specially written for a wedding ("We pledge to one another / before the Lord above") which is very much more suitable and worth considering.
Much of it depends on your congregation - how "churched" they are. If enough of them are regular attenders then you can have something really good, like All My Hope on God is Founded. (We had Vaughan Williams' superb Salve Festa Dies at ours.) Praise My Soul the King of Heaven usually goes well. Morning Has Broken: please no. But my top suggestion would be Guide Me O Thou Great Redeemer (to Cwm Rhondda, of course).
On topic: Ed Balls absolutely should be part of the favourability index.
I take the view that if a couple have been engaging in fornication they ought to be barred from a Church Wedding anyway. Were I a vicar I certainly would not marry them. To do otherwise exposes the church to ridicule and hypocrisy!
At some time in the past, in some areas and in some sectors of society, I'm told marriages didn't tke place UNLESS the girl was pregnant.
At a recent family wedding I was asked by the bride (part of my extended family) to read a poem, 'So Long had I Travelled the Lonely Road" by Wilfrid Gibson. Given that the couple had been single for quite a while before they met, it was very appropriate, and, I gather, went down very well.
It was in a big medieval church in the Marches. One of the church staff told me it was the best organised wedding they'd had for a long time. Since the bride is a conference organiser, I suppose it ought to have been!
On the other 'service' topic I would expect a member of the WI to have 'Jerusalem' sung at their funeral. I've been to several and IIRC they've all had it.
Formally asked my future mother in law permission today, I have to be baptised. Which means I need a baptised name. Any suggestions?
You could grow a pair and tell her to FO. You don't need her permission to marry her daughter and, if you're not religious, there's no reason why you should have to be baptised. FFS.
Formally asked my future mother in law permission today, I have to be baptised. Which means I need a baptised name. Any suggestions?
You could grow a pair and tell her to FO. You don't need her permission to marry her daughter and, if you're not religious, there's no reason why you should have to be baptised. FFS.
While he may not have to ask, there is no harm in being nice. Telling her to do one would be a great start to the in-law relationship.
You could grow a pair and tell her to FO. You don't need her permission to marry her daughter and, if you're not religious, there's no reason why you should have to be baptised. FFS.
An utter lack of belief in the supernatural or higher power seems no barrier to becoming a Bishop in some Protestant churches - John Shelby Spong, Richard Holloway, the list can go on. In England, at least, the major Reformed churches have a streak in them, if not the dominant streak, sufficiently liberal as to take nothing literally and everything metaphorically - claims of historical and scientific truth are less important, indeed can safely be discarded, when the focus shifts to the "meanings" found in a story and their modern "relevance". Given all this I can't see why lack of religious belief should be a barrier to Protestant baptism. Not the kind of thing I'd be inclined to do in the circumstances, as the charade seems rather disrespectful to the grand tradition (and in a more personal and direct sense, the minister presiding), but different strokes for different folks. Moreover, people who insist on future sons- or daughters-in-law jumping through such hoops lack a certain moral standing to complain that hoops being jumped in a formulaic manner by people who have been obliged to do so, is somehow degrading the value of said hoops.
Whether it's good manners, or even an obligation, to seek a future in-law's permission to marry their daughter seems to me a matter of taste, culture and customs, plus the kind of relationships one hopes to build with them afterwards. Clearly it's not physically necessary to do so. But nor do I need my family's permission to walk away from them tomorrow and never be in touch with them again. Whether it's a matter of morals or emotions or rational judgment, I choose not to do so - in fact I'm utterly disinclined to do so - but there are people (including close blood-relations) who have done just that. For all the pain it causes, I don't feel I have a right to stand in judgment when someone makes such a fundamental call in their life. Rarely do two words span such a wide and impenetrable range as "personal reasons". If Max finds it wise, pragmatic, respectful, honourable or emotionally fitting (and he is entitled to utter inscrutability about his precise recipe for that combination) to follow certain traditions in his dealings with his future wife and the family he will gain, that's a personal choice. The implication that his decision shows he lacks balls strikes me (if you'll pardon the pun) as below the belt here. I've always thought Max one of the ballsiest of PBers!
But my top suggestion would be Guide Me O Thou Great Redeemer (to Cwm Rhondda, of course).
We got married in a chapel in a small town in mid-Wales, so it was almost a no-brainer to have Cwm Rhondda. Cracking hymn whether you're religious or not.
I'm nominally CofE, wife is nominally RC but neither of us is practicing or believing. My wife did insist on some sort of religious ceremony though, if only for her mother, who is very liberal religiously but is quite devout (m-i-l was actually a novice in a convent for several years before deciding just before she was due to take her vows the life wasn't for her).
On topic: Ed Balls absolutely should be part of the favourability index.
Ed Balls would be important, at least for one poll. The conventional wisdom has been that Balls is one of those unfortunate politicians the public does not instinctively like or trust, and nor do Labour Party members, given his poor showing when he contested the leadership. What we need to know is if that has been changed by Strictly.
P.S. "All things bright and beautiful" goes down well on all occasions - we sung it at a good mate's funeral last year and everyone was smiling by the end of the hymn.
Be careful with hymns like All Things Bright and Beautiful that can be sung to more than one tune. Make sure you specify the right one.
If you will be using a church-provided hymnal, make sure your hymns are in it. If you are printing them in a wedding-booklet, be careful where you get the words from as some hymns, including this one, used to have verses that are now deprecated. (The Lord's Prayer, too, has slightly different words between churches (who or which art, and the ending).)
But never mind all that. Congratulations and best wishes.
I appreciate you won't get all of these but here are some ideas (in no particular order) -Hollande -Green Party -Liam Fox -Sturgeon -Carwyn Jones -Sadiq Khan -Arlene Forster -McGuinness -Plaid Cymru -Democratic Unionist Party -Sinn Féin -Democratic Party (USA) -Republican Party -Bernie Sanders -Paul Ryan -Xi -Gina Miller -Your local council -
Comments
"The May government’s Brexit policy is, as the prime minister put it again this week, to have 'the best possible trading deal with the European Union once we have left'. Yet Johnson only gets in the way of this effort. Telling Europeans not to worry about Donald Trump is patronising. Describing free movement as “bollocks” is insulting. Talking as if Italy’s only export is prosecco is infantile. Telling his Czech opposite number that the UK will leave the customs union and still be part of the single market is stupid or a lie or both."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-38021820
The LD sample is what? 60, 80? The MoE will be massive.
I found several essays that covered a range of 80s causes - no prizes for guessing when this stuff was written. Using mathematics to teach about the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Using mathematics to teach about squatting (!) in Ecuador (!). Using mathematics to teach about minke whales, using an information pack from the WWF. Teaching multicultural mathematics.
No trace, though, of the essay I was looking for. Perhaps my head had made it all up!
Put it back in the bookshelf only to discover there was actually a second compendium of essays I had had to read and discuss during teacher training. This was even thicker, with several essays about teaching mathematics in a socio-economic context! Eventually found the one that I wanted.
There it was. Compare the size of the defence budget to the health budget and to overseas aid. What do you conclude?
Amongst other gems of great PB interest, such as "best buys" (maths questions usually discuss "which cereal pack is the better value, given their weight and price?" but should we not really be asking "how much does the packaging cost? Do low-income shoppers have to buy poor-value packets because they can't afford the larger ones?"), "gambling" (maths questions often discuss probabilities and odds of events e.g. in a lottery, but shouldn't we also discuss why gambling is profitable for betting companies, how much ordinary people lose gambling, and correlations with poverty) and "the electoral system" (instead of just looking at election results in terms of statistics to analyse, shouldn't we also cover unfairness e.g. sex ratio in parliament, and issues with FPTP? What are the alternatives to FPTP, are they mathematically "fairer"?).
The particular sub-example I remembered was there in black and white: compare the cost of a scud (!!!!) missile with the cost of an X-ray machine! Then the even more alarming question of how many bone marrow transplants could be paid for, for the cost of one scud missile?
Good grief. Another age. Hope @HurstLlama is reading this thread. Not sure if we went through teacher-training in the same era but I imagine he will recognise some of the issues raised in this post :-)
Eurovision is the same. It just makes me appreciate how big and warm a personality Sir Tel was.
https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/799712573725605889
In a 10 block radius from Times Square to Central Park it will be hell on earth for passers by and residents.
But I do wonder about the "true" margin of error nowadays, as most attempted contacts with voters end up with non respondents, when you add in differential response, and also the fact people just plain lie (About actually heading out to vote) - the TRUE MoE on even a series of polls is higher than the given figure.
We are not picking a mixed sample of ~ 1000 ballots randomly mixed after the event.
I did hear Gina Miller today on Bloomberg say that she will accept the Supreme Court verdict and will not be taking it to the EC
Hillary Clinton - out
Donald Trump - in
Vladimir Putin - in
Angela Merkel - in
Conservative Party -in
Labour Party - in
Liberal Democrats - in
UKIP - in
SNP - in
Theresa May - in
Boris Johnson - in
David Davis - in
Phillip Hammond - in
Jeremy Corbyn - in (amusement value)
Tim Farron - out (irrelevance)
David Cameron - out
New picks:
Renzo
Le Pen
Trudeau
Paul Ryan
(Since it probably wouldn't be triggered before the end of March in any event.)
And look where we are now, the elite loathed by the majority of the populace.
MaxPB
EICIPM
Hortense Withering
Tim
Nintendo
https://twitter.com/becket/status/799680076992262144
On the plus side, a person making that statement in public might not be smart enough to cause much damage.
https://twitter.com/usairforce/status/799299820682887169
Oops, didn't see that your future in laws followed a heretical religion...
But then realised that, on the evidence of Strictly, it could be next month.....
Since most on the left expect a Trump Presidency to fail, here's a nightmare for you; it's so-so, he doesn't look scary to suburbanites,
0 replies . 17 retweets 27 likes
Brandon Finnigan @B_M_Finnigan 22h
@B_M_Finnigan and he not only wins re-election, but the popular vote, easily. Want to venture what that map looks like?
0 replies . 9 retweets 22 likes
I would remove David Davis - he is relatively unimportant in HMG.
I would add Nicola Sturgeon.
I presume by Le Pen you mean Marine, given that she is a front-runner for the French presidency, rather than her father or niece.
Canada and Italy are not important countries, nor are they prominent in the public perception, so I would not add Renzi or Trudeau.
Come down o love divine?
Fight the good fight?
Dear Lord and father of mankind
(which has the magnificently appropriate second line, "Forgive our foolish ways"
and
Lord of all hopefulness, lord of all Joy
(which has the second line, "Whose trust, ever childlike, no cares could destroy)
"I Vow to thee my country" is, in my view, suitable for a funeral but not a wedding, unless you are royalty.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Nb6Qp Plausible Trump landslide on ~ +3 PV
It was more the author's perspective that this reweighting of perspectives would restore neutrality to the curriculum which I found amusing. And I say this as someone broadly sympathetic to the author's worldview, albeit not comfortable with using a classroom to express it.
There is an alternative set of words to the Holst tune specially written for a wedding ("We pledge to one another / before the Lord above") which is very much more suitable and worth considering.
Much of it depends on your congregation - how "churched" they are. If enough of them are regular attenders then you can have something really good, like All My Hope on God is Founded. (We had Vaughan Williams' superb Salve Festa Dies at ours.) Praise My Soul the King of Heaven usually goes well. Morning Has Broken: please no. But my top suggestion would be Guide Me O Thou Great Redeemer (to Cwm Rhondda, of course).
On topic: Ed Balls absolutely should be part of the favourability index.
Remove David Davis, add in Farage, add in Juncker, add in Keir Starmer, add in John McDonnell, add in Clive Lewis (let's get an idea of how the public view non-corbyn corbynistas)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XRmGEbH0qs
When my time comes I have left instructions: no hymns, no music, no eulogy; just prayers for the dead in fifteen minutes maximum and then everyone off down to the pub (I have made provision in my will to pay for the drinks).
Did you spot my posts downthread? Wondered if they would spark some memories of your days being subjected to teacher training!
Last poll published before the legal ban - Ipsos for Le Monde
Fillon 30 (+8 since last Sunday)
Juppe 29 (-7)
Sarkozy 29 (=)
Le Maire 5 (-2) NKM 3.5 (+0.5) Poisson 2 (=) Cope 1.5 (+0.5)
The last poll is the first to have another leader than Juppe and he is not at all sure to qualify.
I am beginning to think he could get ousted in the first round which was totally unthinkable two weeks ago. It would be an enormous surprise, of the magnitude of Brexit. Juppe has basically the support of most media and of the top civil servants.
They would probably switch to Macron if Juppe is out.
At a recent family wedding I was asked by the bride (part of my extended family) to read a poem, 'So Long had I Travelled the Lonely Road" by Wilfrid Gibson. Given that the couple had been single for quite a while before they met, it was very appropriate, and, I gather, went down very well.
It was in a big medieval church in the Marches. One of the church staff told me it was the best organised wedding they'd had for a long time. Since the bride is a conference organiser, I suppose it ought to have been!
On the other 'service' topic I would expect a member of the WI to have 'Jerusalem' sung at their funeral. I've been to several and IIRC they've all had it.
Baptism certificates do come in handy sometimes, regardless of degree of (ir)religious conviction! http://www.desertsun.co.uk/blog/?p=204
Whether it's good manners, or even an obligation, to seek a future in-law's permission to marry their daughter seems to me a matter of taste, culture and customs, plus the kind of relationships one hopes to build with them afterwards. Clearly it's not physically necessary to do so. But nor do I need my family's permission to walk away from them tomorrow and never be in touch with them again. Whether it's a matter of morals or emotions or rational judgment, I choose not to do so - in fact I'm utterly disinclined to do so - but there are people (including close blood-relations) who have done just that. For all the pain it causes, I don't feel I have a right to stand in judgment when someone makes such a fundamental call in their life. Rarely do two words span such a wide and impenetrable range as "personal reasons". If Max finds it wise, pragmatic, respectful, honourable or emotionally fitting (and he is entitled to utter inscrutability about his precise recipe for that combination) to follow certain traditions in his dealings with his future wife and the family he will gain, that's a personal choice. The implication that his decision shows he lacks balls strikes me (if you'll pardon the pun) as below the belt here. I've always thought Max one of the ballsiest of PBers!
I'm nominally CofE, wife is nominally RC but neither of us is practicing or believing. My wife did insist on some sort of religious ceremony though, if only for her mother, who is very liberal religiously but is quite devout (m-i-l was actually a novice in a convent for several years before deciding just before she was due to take her vows the life wasn't for her).
If you will be using a church-provided hymnal, make sure your hymns are in it. If you are printing them in a wedding-booklet, be careful where you get the words from as some hymns, including this one, used to have verses that are now deprecated. (The Lord's Prayer, too, has slightly different words between churches (who or which art, and the ending).)
But never mind all that. Congratulations and best wishes.
-Hollande
-Green Party
-Liam Fox
-Sturgeon
-Carwyn Jones
-Sadiq Khan
-Arlene Forster
-McGuinness
-Plaid Cymru
-Democratic Unionist Party
-Sinn Féin
-Democratic Party (USA)
-Republican Party
-Bernie Sanders
-Paul Ryan
-Xi
-Gina Miller
-Your local council
-