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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    You're putting the cart before the horse. First we need to get confirmation that Article 50 is revocable.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,905
    Speedy said:

    The middle of the road has shifted fast:

    https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/799661413706788868

    You can rename it as "Why Chuka Umunna is such a bad fit for Labour".

    That's a very good article, well worth a read.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    Merkel today:

    "We will not be able to discuss Britain's exit from the European Union very deeply as the prime minister has said she will submit the application to leave according to Article 50 at the latest by the end of March," Merkel told reporters before holding talks with May in Berlin.

    It looks to me that she and Theresa have made up their minds about the deal.

    Meanwhile; http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-eu-idUKKBN13D1A9?il=0


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    chestnut said:

    MikeL said:

    Tim_B said:

    I see the EPL has signed a contract with a Chinese entity for 'up to' $700 million for online streaming of games in China for 3 years. By NFL standards the amount is fairly miniscule but props to the EPL for starting to bid up TV contracts.

    It is significant in the sense that it's overseas TV rights. The EPL must make far, far more from overseas TV rights than the NFL does.

    Indeed how much does the NFL make from overseas TV rights? I think the amounts are so small that nothing has ever been reported.

    eg NBC pays $1bn for 6 years of US rights to the EPL

    Whereas Sky pays peanuts for UK rights to the NFL
    Overseas rights are heading towards £3bn
    Iirc when C4 approached the Italian league about showing Lazio games after Gazza signed in 91. They were offered the whole league for about £50k
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.
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    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    You're putting the cart before the horse. First we need to get confirmation that Article 50 is revocable.
    I would say its the LibDems who are trying to put the cart before the horse - I'm just asking what they're trying to do.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    Using the words "identity politics" twice in one post? You're clearly obsessed with it!
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    Ed Balls
    Richard Burgon
    Mark Reckless
    Top Gear
    Grand Tour
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    Thank God

    English cricketers and Spurs aren't playing tomorrow....

    Oh..
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    Speedy said:

    The final 2016 swing map per county (pending final California results):

    https://twitter.com/chrisapplegate/status/799314954323169280

    Southern California, Southern Arizona, Mormons, and most City centres swung Hillary, the rest swung Trump.

    Interesting variations in the five New York boroughs:

    A 4.2% swing to the Democrats in Manhattan

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan#Politics

    A 2.9% swing to the Republicans in Queens:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queens#Government

    A 1.7% swing to the Republicans in Brooklyn

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_and_politics_in_Brooklyn

    A 9.7% swing to the Republicans on Staten Island:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Staten_Island#History_2

    The results aren't on Wikipedia for Bronx county yet but it was a small swing to the Republicans.

    Overall in NYC at least the rich looked to have swung strongly towards Clinton while the equivalents of suburban C1C2s swung to Trump.

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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Dromedary said:

    In the French presidential market, François Fillon looks a bargain at his current back price of 5.7.

    I wrote that at 10.24 this morning. His lay price is now 4.4. That would yield a 30% profit. But I think his price will rise further in the next few days.

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    Ed Balls
    Richard Burgon
    Mark Reckless
    Top Gear
    Grand Tour

    Top Gear might give mixed results as people could be torn between the authentic version and that Chris Evans led masquerade
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Cameron should go. In the end he showed that he was a hollow man, not only inside, but all the way through. This was a man that believed in nothing, yet more than half of PBers hung on to his words and doings as if they eminated from Mt, Sinai.

    Good riddance to a man that conned the nation, but thankfully, not me.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    The Yougov published today has their vote retention from 2015 at a meagre 33%.

    The people who sympathise on Europe are the students whose tuition fees they trebled, the Scots who want to leave the UK, the residents of Corbyn Central in London and the Islington By Sea Greens in Brighton.

    The LDs, SNP, Plaid, Labour and Greens are scrapping for the 45% of the country that are left inclined; the Tories and UKIP are scrapping for the 55% that are right inclined.

    There isn't a worthwhile market for five left of centre parties in this country. Two or three need to go to the wall.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited November 2016

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    MikeK said:

    Cameron should go. In the end he showed that he was a hollow man, not only inside, but all the way through. This was a man that believed in nothing, yet more than half of PBers hung on to his words and doings as if they eminated from Mt, Sinai.

    Good riddance to a man that conned the nation, but thankfully, not me.

    But he did follow through on his pledge to have an in/out referendum :)
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    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    chestnut said:

    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    The Yougov published today has their vote retention from 2015 at a meagre 33%.

    The people who sympathise on Europe are the students whose tuition fees they trebled, the Scots who want to leave the UK, the residents of Corbyn Central in London and the Islington By Sea Greens in Brighton.

    The LDs, SNP, Plaid, Labour and Greens are scrapping for the 45% of the country that are left inclined; the Tories and UKIP are scrapping for the 55% that are right inclined.

    There isn't a worthwhile market for five left of centre parties in this country. Two or three need to go to the wall.
    I love that there are 5. No competition for the handsome right wing
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    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
    Aldi sell it cheapish and it might be just a placebo effect but it works for me.

    Local honey is said to be good for people who suffer from hay fever.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    All on the list bar Obama.

    Justin Welby seems to have suffered from an outbreak of common sense

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/18/welby-time-to-stop-saying-isil-has-nothing-to-do-with-islam/
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,905
    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    But by the time the election comes around, arguing for a second referendum (to stay in the EU) will be like trying to stop a Space Shuttle launching after the boosters have been lit - it's just not possible, no matter how much they wish it were true.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    Speedy said:

    @Surbiton

    Arizona

    Whites 2012 (74% of voters)

    Romney 66
    Obama 32

    Whites 2016 (75% of voters)

    Trump 54
    Hillary 40

    Hispanics 2012 (18% of voters)

    Romney 25
    Obama 74

    Hispanics 2016 (15% of voters)

    Trump 31
    Hillary 61

    Party ID 2012

    DEM 26
    REP 35
    IND 39

    Party ID 2016

    DEM 28
    REP 32
    IND 40

    There is no doubt that the result in Arizona was close because White Democrats surged, but that was countered by Hispanic men going Trump.

    In Pennsylvania you also get the same pattern with African American men (14% for Trump vs 1% for A.A. Women).

    These are from a poll. Do you still believe in polls or only when it suits you ? So the White vote went to Clinton - only in AZ and the Hispanic vote went to Trump - only in AZ ?

    Do you still believe in Santa Claus ?
    Isn't that from the exit poll? Those tend to be better than normal polls.
    If the exibpoll was right Clinton would be president. Some of the exit poll misses were astronomical.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    chestnut said:

    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    The Yougov published today has their vote retention from 2015 at a meagre 33%.

    The people who sympathise on Europe are the students whose tuition fees they trebled, the Scots who want to leave the UK, the residents of Corbyn Central in London and the Islington By Sea Greens in Brighton.

    The LDs, SNP, Plaid, Labour and Greens are scrapping for the 45% of the country that are left inclined; the Tories and UKIP are scrapping for the 55% that are right inclined.

    There isn't a worthwhile market for five left of centre parties in this country. Two or three need to go to the wall.
    A fair point - but there are only three of those parties scrapping for England.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    BBC
    EU
    Immigrants to this country from EU
    Immigrants to this country from outside the EU
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    If I were Marine Le Pen, I wouldn't want to be the bookies' favourite or the leader in the polls. At most, lead in some outlier polls that experts can say must be rubbish because they're outliers, or spike to a very occasional lead in other polls, but no more than that.
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    chestnut said:

    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    The Yougov published today has their vote retention from 2015 at a meagre 33%.

    The people who sympathise on Europe are the students whose tuition fees they trebled, the Scots who want to leave the UK, the residents of Corbyn Central in London and the Islington By Sea Greens in Brighton.

    The LDs, SNP, Plaid, Labour and Greens are scrapping for the 45% of the country that are left inclined; the Tories and UKIP are scrapping for the 55% that are right inclined.

    There isn't a worthwhile market for five left of centre parties in this country. Two or three need to go to the wall.
    A fair point - but there are only three of those parties scrapping for England.
    some of that 45% though are liberal left and some most definitely not - The group that are not will switch easily from Labour to UKIP and vice versa and some even Labour /Tory but never dream of voting Green or LD
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Ed Balls should be on the list.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Cameron should go. In the end he showed that he was a hollow man, not only inside, but all the way through. This was a man that believed in nothing, yet more than half of PBers hung on to his words and doings as if they eminated from Mt, Sinai.

    Good riddance to a man that conned the nation, but thankfully, not me.

    But he did follow through on his pledge to have an in/out referendum :)
    Only because he was frightened of Farage and UKIP outflanking him on the EU. You can thank UKIP for the referendum and the fact that Brexiteers won the vote.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
    If Trump really is going to get people like Sessions in then, yes, 2020 is going to be extremely divisive. If he runs a middle ground presidency which is good for everyone then I think it will be impossible to run on identity in 2020. No amnesty, mega fiscal stimulus in run down cities and rural areas, Americanisation of border Hispanics and returning GOP traditionalists will see them over the line, possibly with a record popular vote. I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.
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    Nigel Farage should def be on the list - The most influential UK politician of the last year (and best mates with the US pres!)
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,344
    Would be good statistical practice to have a couple of control items - e.g. the New Independence Party (doesn't exist, let's see how many people pretend to have an opinion) and perhaps some group which we assume to be almost universally loved or hated, e.g. the Queen and ISIS.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    MaxPB said:

    I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.

    His nominations do look bad, but I wonder if some of them are intended to be rejected. Not that I have a clue what The Donald is thinking, but he did seem to tone it down a bit over the weekend, now that he's getting down to business he's picking people that are making Freepers happy, and that's a very bad thing.
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    Dromedary said:

    If I were Marine Le Pen, I wouldn't want to be the bookies' favourite or the leader in the polls. At most, lead in some outlier polls that experts can say must be rubbish because they're outliers, or spike to a very occasional lead in other polls, but no more than that.

    yes GOTV for extreme right wingers depends on being close enough to the lead to make it not futile but not ahead as that a) invokes complacency and b) second thoughts of the reality of the decision
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
    If Trump really is going to get people like Sessions in then, yes, 2020 is going to be extremely divisive. If he runs a middle ground presidency which is good for everyone then I think it will be impossible to run on identity in 2020. No amnesty, mega fiscal stimulus in run down cities and rural areas, Americanisation of border Hispanics and returning GOP traditionalists will see them over the line, possibly with a record popular vote. I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.
    Sessions is a hard-liner on immigrants, but he's no racist. So called liberals brand anyone racist that disagrees with their notion of PC.
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    nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    chestnut said:

    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    The Yougov published today has their vote retention from 2015 at a meagre 33%.

    The people who sympathise on Europe are the students whose tuition fees they trebled, the Scots who want to leave the UK, the residents of Corbyn Central in London and the Islington By Sea Greens in Brighton.

    The LDs, SNP, Plaid, Labour and Greens are scrapping for the 45% of the country that are left inclined; the Tories and UKIP are scrapping for the 55% that are right inclined.

    There isn't a worthwhile market for five left of centre parties in this country. Two or three need to go to the wall.
    The left wing parties are fighting a battle of mutually assured destruction - look at Richmond Park. Both the lib dem and labour candidates claiming to be the anti brexit candidate.
    If the prediction earlier is right - Goldsmith wins with a 2000 majority, then the lib dems will have lost because labour fielded a candidate who had no chance of winning but just split the vote.
    The parties won't go to the wall, they will just destroy each other, and they could never work together in coalition.
    A progressive alliance is what is needed, but won't happen.
    The trouble is that Corbyn is in some ways what labour needed, a leader with a vision, but his transformational vision is not really making any headway outside supporters of the labour party and certainly not in the areas that labour need to win.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited November 2016

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
    Aldi sell it cheapish and it might be just a placebo effect but it works for me.

    Local honey is said to be good for people who suffer from hay fever.
    Alas the nearest Aldi is a pig of a place to get to by public transport, whereas there is a Paynes Bee Farm just off the route of my morning walk.

    As to local honey being good for Hay-fever sufferers, I never knew that. I shall tell Herself and encourage her to eat more honey next spring and summer. Thanks for the tip.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444
    MikeK said:

    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Cameron should go. In the end he showed that he was a hollow man, not only inside, but all the way through. This was a man that believed in nothing, yet more than half of PBers hung on to his words and doings as if they eminated from Mt, Sinai.

    Good riddance to a man that conned the nation, but thankfully, not me.

    But he did follow through on his pledge to have an in/out referendum :)
    Only because he was frightened of Farage and UKIP outflanking him on the EU. You can thank UKIP for the referendum and the fact that Brexiteers won the vote.
    I think it was more about trying to settle a question in the only way possible - the longer a referendum was not held, the larger the support for leaving. This is why I blame the LibDems for blocking a referendum during the coalition government. Remain would have won then and settled the question until the European Health Service popped up in a decade or so...
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444
    MikeK said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
    If Trump really is going to get people like Sessions in then, yes, 2020 is going to be extremely divisive. If he runs a middle ground presidency which is good for everyone then I think it will be impossible to run on identity in 2020. No amnesty, mega fiscal stimulus in run down cities and rural areas, Americanisation of border Hispanics and returning GOP traditionalists will see them over the line, possibly with a record popular vote. I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.
    Sessions is a hard-liner on immigrants, but he's no racist. So called liberals brand anyone racist that disagrees with their notion of PC.
    Nope - he is a racist.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Surely that depends on how those 15% are distributed around the country?
  • Options
    nielh said:

    chestnut said:

    Dixie said:

    Re: last thread, Libs should absolutely go for 2nd referendum. It would bring them out of the doldrums and is not a U-Turn for once. Hate them, but it makes sense for them.

    The Yougov published today has their vote retention from 2015 at a meagre 33%.

    The people who sympathise on Europe are the students whose tuition fees they trebled, the Scots who want to leave the UK, the residents of Corbyn Central in London and the Islington By Sea Greens in Brighton.

    The LDs, SNP, Plaid, Labour and Greens are scrapping for the 45% of the country that are left inclined; the Tories and UKIP are scrapping for the 55% that are right inclined.

    There isn't a worthwhile market for five left of centre parties in this country. Two or three need to go to the wall.
    The left wing parties are fighting a battle of mutually assured destruction - look at Richmond Park. Both the lib dem and labour candidates claiming to be the anti brexit candidate.
    If the prediction earlier is right - Goldsmith wins with a 2000 majority, then the lib dems will have lost because labour fielded a candidate who had no chance of winning but just split the vote.
    The parties won't go to the wall, they will just destroy each other, and they could never work together in coalition.
    A progressive alliance is what is needed, but won't happen.
    The trouble is that Corbyn is in some ways what labour needed, a leader with a vision, but his transformational vision is not really making any headway outside supporters of the labour party and certainly not in the areas that labour need to win.
    The reason I believe Corbyn will not do well in a general election is not that he is left wing or even a bit liberalish left wing as generally he is fairly respected amongst quite a cross section of marginal voters but he will not do well because he wants to give up the UK 's nuclear weapons - This is a massive vote loser and minds will be concentrated in a campaign. In a post Brexit world the UK needs to have all the power it can cling onto and nuclear weapons however sad that is intrinsically does that for a country.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,444
    Floater said:

    All on the list bar Obama.

    Justin Welby seems to have suffered from an outbreak of common sense

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/18/welby-time-to-stop-saying-isil-has-nothing-to-do-with-islam/

    Bit late to come to common sense. The tone deafness of the progressive left is sometime startling....
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    I think that's right -just as @Dixie was earlier - they need a USP. Two concerns, will the geographical distribution help them, where they are nominally in with a shout and does Farron have the skill to get them beyond expectations. I suppose you might consider it in the context of, wither Cambridge.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449

    MikeK said:

    RobD said:

    MikeK said:

    Cameron should go. In the end he showed that he was a hollow man, not only inside, but all the way through. This was a man that believed in nothing, yet more than half of PBers hung on to his words and doings as if they eminated from Mt, Sinai.

    Good riddance to a man that conned the nation, but thankfully, not me.

    But he did follow through on his pledge to have an in/out referendum :)
    Only because he was frightened of Farage and UKIP outflanking him on the EU. You can thank UKIP for the referendum and the fact that Brexiteers won the vote.
    I think it was more about trying to settle a question in the only way possible - the longer a referendum was not held, the larger the support for leaving. This is why I blame the LibDems for blocking a referendum during the coalition government. Remain would have won then and settled the question until the European Health Service popped up in a decade or so...
    And also, of course, the Lib Dems in rather theatrically blocking a referendum on the Lisbon treaty in 2007, despite something like a commitment to hold one being in their manifesto. Just think - had that referendum been held; had Lisbon been defeated, we might have slowed the march forward then and there - and might still be a member.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
    Aldi sell it cheapish and it might be just a placebo effect but it works for me.

    Local honey is said to be good for people who suffer from hay fever.
    Alas the nearest Aldi is a pig of a place to get to by public transport, whereas there is a Paynes Bee Farm just off the route of my morning walk.

    As to local honey being good for Hay-fever sufferers, I never knew that. I shall tell Herself and encourage her to eat more honey next spring and summer. Thanks for the tip.
    You can try the latter but you can equally try ground tiger bones to make you, er, more excitable in the bedroom (or whether best suits you). With much the same success rate.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
    If Trump really is going to get people like Sessions in then, yes, 2020 is going to be extremely divisive. If he runs a middle ground presidency which is good for everyone then I think it will be impossible to run on identity in 2020. No amnesty, mega fiscal stimulus in run down cities and rural areas, Americanisation of border Hispanics and returning GOP traditionalists will see them over the line, possibly with a record popular vote. I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.
    Flynn ain't that great either.


    2h
    ryan cooper ‏@ryanlcooper
    Trump's pick for National Security Adviser has some unsettling ties to AKP http://theweek.com/articles/662848
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    MikeK said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
    If Trump really is going to get people like Sessions in then, yes, 2020 is going to be extremely divisive. If he runs a middle ground presidency which is good for everyone then I think it will be impossible to run on identity in 2020. No amnesty, mega fiscal stimulus in run down cities and rural areas, Americanisation of border Hispanics and returning GOP traditionalists will see them over the line, possibly with a record popular vote. I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.
    Sessions is a hard-liner on immigrants, but he's no racist. So called liberals brand anyone racist that disagrees with their notion of PC.
    You know me, I'm not one to jump to the racism charge immediately, but read this:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-offers-jeff-sessions-attorney-general-post/

    There is a pattern of prejudice against black people throughout his career. Passing off awful comments as a joke once is acceptable, twice is questionable and many times is a pattern.
  • Options

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
    Aldi sell it cheapish and it might be just a placebo effect but it works for me.

    Local honey is said to be good for people who suffer from hay fever.
    Alas the nearest Aldi is a pig of a place to get to by public transport, whereas there is a Paynes Bee Farm just off the route of my morning walk.

    As to local honey being good for Hay-fever sufferers, I never knew that. I shall tell Herself and encourage her to eat more honey next spring and summer. Thanks for the tip.
    Well I can't vouch for the local honey being a cure for hay fever as I don't suffer myself.

    The theory is that its similar to inoculation - you build up an immunity to the local pollen through its bee modified form of honey.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Surely that depends on how those 15% are distributed around the country?
    I think quite a lot of them are in SW London.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    She's saying some interesting things

    Daily Caller
    Nikki Haley: Trump Won Despite Republican Officials, Not Because Of Them [VIDEO] https://t.co/oZtCSnzEL3 https://t.co/aGY3jVRAOw
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka Honey, Mr Richard? I wouldn't touch it. Horrendously expensive and, as you say, most of it is of doubtful provenance. Plain, honest, Sussex honey (from any one of a number of suppliers around here) is good enough for us.
    Aldi sell it cheapish and it might be just a placebo effect but it works for me.

    Local honey is said to be good for people who suffer from hay fever.
    Alas the nearest Aldi is a pig of a place to get to by public transport, whereas there is a Paynes Bee Farm just off the route of my morning walk.

    As to local honey being good for Hay-fever sufferers, I never knew that. I shall tell Herself and encourage her to eat more honey next spring and summer. Thanks for the tip.
    The local honey trick transformed the Wifi's suffering from hay-fever this year. Not a sniffle.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    edited November 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Kingston, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,905
    Ha, Guido's managed to dig out the President-Elect's immigration policy, as told by President Clinton in 1995!
    http://order-order.com/2016/11/18/president-clintons-crackdown-illegal-immigrants/
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2016

    Merkel's expected to officially announce her candidature for a 4th term on Sunday.

    What is it with politicans not being able to realise when it's time to retire gracefully? (Tony Blair being the exception, the only person to win an election for Labour in 40 years).
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sandpit said:

    Ha, Guido's managed to dig out the President-Elect's immigration policy, as told by President Clinton in 1995!
    http://order-order.com/2016/11/18/president-clintons-crackdown-illegal-immigrants/

    Yes the Clinton's have always been quite right wing for Democrats. That was back when they won the low income white vote as well as the black vote. A formidable coalition.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,905
    MaxPB said:

    MikeK said:

    MaxPB said:

    glw said:

    MaxPB said:

    Hmm, I do remember getting berated here on the morning after the election for pointing out that the Dems concentration on identity politics had hurt them. The sensible left in the US has also come to this conclusion. A certain Ms Apocalypse was insistent that identity politics was not to blame and it is still a desirable policy for the Dems. Hopefully the party command will dump it and make sure they are a party for everyone, model themselves on the Tory party over here, at least Dave's version.

    I expect they will do the opposite and double down, which might even work, but I expect 2020 will be an even more divisive election.


    How did liberalism go from this:

    "And listening to Roosevelt’s stirring voice as he invoked the freedom of speech, the freedom of worship, the freedom from want and the freedom from fear — freedoms that Roosevelt demanded for “everyone in the world” — I was reminded of what the real foundations of modern American liberalism are."

    To banning newspapers from sale because you don't agree with them.
    If Trump really is going to get people like Sessions in then, yes, 2020 is going to be extremely divisive. If he runs a middle ground presidency which is good for everyone then I think it will be impossible to run on identity in 2020. No amnesty, mega fiscal stimulus in run down cities and rural areas, Americanisation of border Hispanics and returning GOP traditionalists will see them over the line, possibly with a record popular vote. I hope that Trump is smart enough to see that he needs to run his White House for everyone and that means people like Sessions shouldn't be given a seat at the table. I said earlier today that I think Trump is personally colourblind which is great, but it also means he doesn't place any importance on race so someone like Sessions who does gets a hearing where he shouldn't.
    Sessions is a hard-liner on immigrants, but he's no racist. So called liberals brand anyone racist that disagrees with their notion of PC.
    You know me, I'm not one to jump to the racism charge immediately, but read this:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-offers-jeff-sessions-attorney-general-post/

    There is a pattern of prejudice against black people throughout his career. Passing off awful comments as a joke once is acceptable, twice is questionable and many times is a pattern.
    Reading that article through I'd say he's going to struggle for Senate confirmation, even if they do have a habit of voting for one of their own. Only a couple of Republican dissenters would be enough, assuming he can't vote for himself.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Why should there strategy not be to go from 8 seats to 48? They lost them in one go, they could theoretically win them back in another. It's funny how we assumed all of last Parliament that they couldn't realistically fall below 30 to 40. The idea of a 10-19 seat band was meant to be extremely pessimistic for them not to be optimistic.

    Maybe now we are being too pessimistic this time?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,905
    AndyJS said:

    Merkel's expected to officially announce her candidature for a 4th term on Sunday.

    What is it with politicans not being able to realise when it's time to retire gracefully? (Tony Blair being the exception, the only person to win an election for Labour in 40 years).
    And boy, did Tony Blair manage to time his resignation to perfection!
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    Merkel's expected to officially announce her candidature for a 4th term on Sunday.

    What is it with politicans not being able to realise when it's time to retire gracefully? (Tony Blair being the exception, the only person to win an election for Labour in 40 years).
    Blair didn't go completely willingly.

    Although in retrospect it did turn out to be fortuitous timing.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,730

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka honey is supposed to be healthful due to its antibacterial properties. If you believe that, heather honey has more of the antibacterial ingredient, tastes similarly to manuka honey, bit better, and you would supporting Scottish beekeepers by buying it.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290
    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka honey is supposed to be healthful due to its antibacterial properties. If you believe that, heather honey has more of the antibacterial ingredient, tastes similarly to manuka honey, bit better, and you would supporting Scottish beekeepers by buying it.
    Especially considering three times as much Manuka is sold as is made.

    Rather like Italy exports about the same amount of Italian Extra Virgin Olive Oil as it produces. From which logic would suggest that no Italian would ever touch the stuff.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka honey is supposed to be healthful due to its antibacterial properties. If you believe that, heather honey has more of the antibacterial ingredient, tastes similarly to manuka honey, bit better, and you would supporting Scottish beekeepers by buying it.
    Especially considering three times as much Manuka is sold as is made.

    Rather like Italy exports about the same amount of Italian Extra Virgin Olive Oil as it produces. From which logic would suggest that no Italian would ever touch the stuff.
    Most of its exports comes from Spain.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    Rightly or wrongly, I think it's easier to have a policy that says "we shouldn't leave the EU" which then shifts to "we should rejoin the EU", than to have one that is "we should leave the EU now so that we can rejoin it after the election."
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290
    edited November 2016
    geoffw said:

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    Mortimer said:

    @TSE Where do you stand on potato on pizza?

    Chorizo, Rosemary and Potato pizza in the fridge for this evening. Given I'm moping around with a stinking cold I've been looking forward to it all day.
    Good grief! If you have a stinking cold a pizza will not do you any good. What you need is a damn hot curry; whisky with lemon juice, honey and glycerine topped up with hot water (lots of those drinks) and an extra blanket on the bed.
    Try the hottest tom yum kung soup you can find. It always seems to work wonders when I'm starting to get a cold.
    Each to their own, Mr. Glenn. I prefer the Indian to the fully oriental but I think the principle is the same.

    For the past few years I have been cold free and I put this down to taking the medicine on a precautionary principle. Once I have had my flu jab in October I switch over to at least one good hot curry a week and a whisky, lemon, glycerine and hot water drink after my morning walk every day. If I feel a sniffle coming on then its straight to the curry house and double down on the medicinal drink, seems to work very well.
    Manuka honey.

    Although most of it is supposedly of doubtful origin.

    Still you could add it to your hot lemon drinks.
    Manuka honey is supposed to be healthful due to its antibacterial properties. If you believe that, heather honey has more of the antibacterial ingredient, tastes similarly to manuka honey, bit better, and you would supporting Scottish beekeepers by buying it.
    Especially considering three times as much Manuka is sold as is made.

    Rather like Italy exports about the same amount of Italian Extra Virgin Olive Oil as it produces. From which logic would suggest that no Italian would ever touch the stuff.
    Most of its exports comes from Spain.
    That, my friend, is a perfect example of trying to confuse the issue with facts.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
    The model being the SNP surge after their indyref fail.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
    A smaller proportion think it would be right for us to stay in, given the referendum result.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Sandpit said:

    Ha, Guido's managed to dig out the President-Elect's immigration policy, as told by President Clinton in 1995!
    http://order-order.com/2016/11/18/president-clintons-crackdown-illegal-immigrants/

    What's Ken Starr doing these days?

    It'd be Grandmaster level trolling to appoint him to look in to the Clinton Foundation.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
    A smaller proportion think it would be right for us to stay in, given the referendum result.
    And an even smaller proportion care about it enough to change their vote! But it's still probably 15% of the country and concentrated in 20-25 seats in metropolitan England and the south east.

    If I were starting on 8% and 8 seats, and thinking entirely about where there was a gap in the market, this is where I would choose.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    GeoffM said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ha, Guido's managed to dig out the President-Elect's immigration policy, as told by President Clinton in 1995!
    http://order-order.com/2016/11/18/president-clintons-crackdown-illegal-immigrants/

    What's Ken Starr doing these days?

    It'd be Grandmaster level trolling to appoint him to look in to the Clinton Foundation.
    Is he Keir Starmer's cousin?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,079
    O/T - Interesting side-note to the Calexit discussion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_(proposed_Pacific_state)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    O/T - Interesting side-note to the Calexit discussion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_(proposed_Pacific_state)

    Wow - 21 counties have already expressed their intention/desire to leave.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
    A smaller proportion think it would be right for us to stay in, given the referendum result.
    With the Labour leadership's latest comments about Brexit. It's smart politics for Farron to focus on that chunk of voters in England and Wales not being spoken for.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
    Sure 70% of people won't want to rejoin. But what if 30% do? That's a fertile pond for the LibDems to fish in. And being able to say "we told you so" probably won't do their electoral chances any harm.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited November 2016
    Rumours circulating that Jim Webb will become Independent and lining up for Defence Sec

    Jack Posobiec
    Jim Webb is a graduate of Annapolis and of Georgetown Law. He’s already been Assistant Secretary of Defense & Secretary of the Navy

    Jim Webb was appointed Assistant Secretary of Defense by Ronald Reagan in 1984
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,171
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
    Sure 70% of people won't want to rejoin. But what if 30% do? That's a fertile pond for the LibDems to fish in. And being able to say "we told you so" probably won't do their electoral chances any harm.
    Always popular those "we told you so" types!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
    I shared my insights here in the run up to the election in May 2015, from a LibDem held marginal seat. My reading of those voters is what led me to suggest then that LibDems were going to suffer very badly; and it now leads me to suggest how things will pan out point forward, reading those same voters.

    It is not some mischievous trolling (for once!),
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters .
    Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% .
    They cant all be correct .
  • Options
    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    who would you like to see banned from this site?

    Ha ha! That should be written on your gravestone!
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
    Sure 70% of people won't want to rejoin. But what if 30% do? That's a fertile pond for the LibDems to fish in. And being able to say "we told you so" probably won't do their electoral chances any harm.
    As per, it won't be anything like that level. Not remotely close.

    Brexit means Brexit.
  • Options
    Contrary to rumour, the Government is not going to argue that an Article 50 notice is revocable.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Speedy said:

    The middle of the road has shifted fast:

    https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/799661413706788868

    You can rename it as "Why Chuka Umunna is such a bad fit for Labour".

    That's a very good article, well worth a read.
    There's a paragraph in it in which the author explains how liberal teachers could teach their US history classes in a more effectively liberal way, i.e. in a way more likely to make their students liberal.

    Interesting to see someone being so candid about that, particularly in print. The fears of conservative American parents that their kids are being systematically brainwashed by liberals in schools and colleges are not entirely without foundation.

    In a British context it reminded me of an essay I had to read as part of an assignment when I was doing my teacher training - about how maths problems phrased in neutral, "everyday" terms such as the price of apples and how many Johnny can afford, were actually indicative of deep politically conservative bias in the system. Maths teachers should instead challenge students with questions like "if we abolished cruise missiles, how many more hospitals could be built"? There were further examples, regarding other traditionally left-wing concerns such as poverty, inequality, women's rights and so on.

    The thing that struck me as odd was that the essay was not so candid about the point of the exercise. It seemed clear to me the author intended that maths lessons, rather than being value-neutral, should be utilised as part of a political education strategy in favour of his preferred agenda. On the contrary, the author claimed that his approach would actually render maths lessons politically neutral! Questions about the price of apples (unless they considered whether Johnny could actually afford the apples, and whether there were inequalities between who could and could not access high quality nutrition) were merely conservative propaganda because they presented the socio-economic system "as is", rather than challenging students to consider alternatives. Questions about how many more schools'n'hospitals could be built if government programmes left-wingers disapprove of were to be scrapped, were not in fact endorsements of the left-wing view, merely educating students as to the opportunity cost of pursuing such a right-wing strategy as, e.g., continuing to have an army - and then the students could make their own minds up. What could be more neutral than that?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,290
    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
    Sure 70% of people won't want to rejoin. But what if 30% do? That's a fertile pond for the LibDems to fish in. And being able to say "we told you so" probably won't do their electoral chances any harm.
    First base for the LibDems from their current position is finding ways to get noticed. Which means positions that are distinctive (from both Tory and Labour).
  • Options

    Sandpit said:

    Speedy said:

    The middle of the road has shifted fast:

    https://twitter.com/SamHarrisOrg/status/799661413706788868

    You can rename it as "Why Chuka Umunna is such a bad fit for Labour".

    That's a very good article, well worth a read.
    There's a paragraph in it in which the author explains how liberal teachers could teach their US history classes in a more effectively liberal way, i.e. in a way more likely to make their students liberal.

    Interesting to see someone being so candid about that, particularly in print. The fears of conservative American parents that their kids are being systematically brainwashed by liberals in schools and colleges are not entirely without foundation.

    In a British context it reminded me of an essay I had to read as part of an assignment when I was doing my teacher training - about how maths problems phrased in neutral, "everyday" terms such as the price of apples and how many Johnny can afford, were actually indicative of deep politically conservative bias in the system. Maths teachers should instead challenge students with questions like "if we abolished cruise missiles, how many more hospitals could be built"? There were further examples, regarding other traditionally left-wing concerns such as poverty, inequality, women's rights and so on.

    The thing that struck me as odd was that the essay was not so candid about the point of the exercise. It seemed clear to me the author intended that maths lessons, rather than being value-neutral, should be utilised as part of a political education strategy in favour of his preferred agenda. On the contrary, the author claimed that his approach would actually render maths lessons politically neutral! Questions about the price of apples (unless they considered whether Johnny could actually afford the apples, and whether there were inequalities between who could and could not access high quality nutrition) were merely conservative propaganda because they presented the socio-economic system "as is", rather than challenging students to consider alternatives. Questions about how many more schools'n'hospitals could be built if government programmes left-wingers disapprove of were to be scrapped, were not in fact endorsements of the left-wing view, merely educating students as to the opportunity cost of pursuing such a right-wing strategy as, e.g., continuing to have an army - and then the students could make their own minds up. What could be more neutral than that?
    The cruise missile question was a Yes Prime Minister gag.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters .
    Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% .
    They cant all be correct .

    Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
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    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
    Sure 70% of people won't want to rejoin. But what if 30% do? That's a fertile pond for the LibDems to fish in. And being able to say "we told you so" probably won't do their electoral chances any harm.
    First base for the LibDems from their current position is finding ways to get noticed. Which means positions that are distinctive (from both Tory and Labour).
    They could promise to abolish tuition fees.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I very much like the idea that Universities should guarantee 50% of the student loans - if I understand Trumps's proposal...
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,007

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    Except...if they lose in Richmond Park, a seat they would have hand-picked to test this strategy - what then? I just can't see this 15% strategy delivering seats they lost in 2015.
    And if they win there?

    The LibDems have historically been strong in places like Twickenham, Richmond, Twickenham, Hornsey & Wood Green, Cambridge, Oxford West & Abingdon, that are among the most Pro-Remain parts of the UK.

    Their strategy is not to win a General Election, it's to go from eight seats to eighteen.

    Even if they succeed in Richmond Park, the strategy is still a hiding to nothing going into the next election. By 2020, with the UK out of the EU, the LibDems will have to move to being the party of the Rejoiners, of the Euro, of the European Army. And that isn't 15% of the population.
    If Brexit is executed well and turns into a tremendous success, it isn't completely impossible that you might have a point.
    If Brexit is a clusterfck and our departure is not a stellar success, that still doesn't mean people will want to unravel our departure from the EU and rejoin. It's more likely the Tory Party will be going into the 2020 election in a post-May world.
    Sure 70% of people won't want to rejoin. But what if 30% do? That's a fertile pond for the LibDems to fish in. And being able to say "we told you so" probably won't do their electoral chances any harm.
    First base for the LibDems from their current position is finding ways to get noticed. Which means positions that are distinctive (from both Tory and Labour).
    They could promise to abolish tuition fees.
    Boom boom
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    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Re the previous thread.

    On what do the LibDems want to hold a second EU referendum ?

    If the government's negotiations were voted down in a referendum then the default is hard and probably disorderly Brexit.

    Or do the LibDems think that the UK would be magically transported onto the EverCloserUnion train ?

    I think they are merely trying to make themselves the party of the 15% (which is approximately the number of people that care enough about the EU). Which, given they were on 8% last time around, is by no means stpuid.
    They can achieve that by saying that they support the UK's membership of the EU and if they win an election they will give a referendum to rejoin the EU.

    Which would be far more logically coherent and political honest than their current drivvle.
    To make progress, to get above 8 seats, it will require them to convince voters to go for a referendum, knowing they will vote to stay out of the EU. Really?

    That smacks of a strategy of desperation to be heard.
    This smacks of Remainers giving UKIP advice, tbh.

    The LibDems are trying to be the only avowedly pro EU party. There may be a market for that, there may not be. But it is by no means a stupid strategy given that 48% of the population just voted to stay in.
    The model being the SNP surge after their indyref fail.
    Funny that it was meant to be the Kippers following that precedent. The problem is that had Indyref, like the EU Referendum, been a Yes then I'm not sure about "we shouldn't go independent/should rejoin the UK" would have been a major success for a unionist party once the Scots were independent.

    It's easier to prevent/campaign for change than it is to reverse it.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited November 2016
    chestnut said:

    There is a big discrepancy between Yougov and ICM and Ipsos Mori in their last polls with respect to behaviour of 2015 LD voters .
    Both ICM and Mori have 4% of them moving to Conservative and 11/13% to Labour Yougov have 26% and 18% .
    They cant all be correct .

    Surely they can because the number of Lib Dem voters in any sample is so small?
    NOPE It is also reflected in LD voter retention which you mentioned earlier 70% plus for ICM/Ipsos v your 33% for Yougov .
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