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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LD demand for a 2nd referendum could have the same potency

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LD demand for a 2nd referendum could have the same potency as its 2003 stance of total opposition to the invasion of Iraq

We all remember how in late 2002 and 2003 that the IDS-led Tories gave their backing to Blair’s invasion of Iraq. The Charles Kennedy-led LDs were the only national party to oppose and this stance stance helped them to their best ever performance at GE2005.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    First like Leave!
  • 2nd, like a lot of well known politicians this year.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    YouGov in front of Labour??????
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    'YouGov could edge in front of LAB if it was only party witch such a promise'

    Umm..? [now corrected]

  • The LDs have the wrong leader. With the right one they'd be a very serious force. Lucky Labour.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Also I see a witch has crept into political betting. Halloween was ages ago :grin:
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    A second referendum would just reinforce brexit. Foolish idea by the LD's
  • Imagine if this was the actual GE result. It would give the Tories a 1,000 seat majority or something. We live in a two party system where one of those two parties has gangrene from about the chest down.
  • Are we sure Labour being down on 19% in this poll isn't down to Jeremy Corbyn's name being mentioned in the voting intention question?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    The search for a way back for the most Europhile party continues.

    I am one of those who votes Lib Dems in local elections who would drop them in a heartbeat if they tried to stop our exit.

    Seems Lib Dems only a fan of democracy when the votes go their way.

    Whatever happened to respecting the will of the people? (oh, just another broken promise to add to the tally).

    No wonder they are such fans of the EU project.

  • A second referendum would just reinforce brexit. Foolish idea by the LD's

    The Lib Dems need something to differentiate themselves from the main two, this latest tilting at windmills may achieve that. Or maybe not.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    A second referendum would just reinforce brexit. Foolish idea by the LD's

    The Lib Dems need something to differentiate themselves from the main two, this latest tilting at windmills may achieve that. Or maybe not.
    They could become the party with zero MP's if they are not careful.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The LDs have the wrong leader. With the right one they'd be a very serious force. Lucky Labour.

    The Labour party with senior members who espouse armed revolution, that Labour party?

    Our country is poorly served by it's political parties right now.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Lib Dems will need a more convincing leader than Tim Farron if this was to take off.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,582
    edited November 2016
    As I predicted on here a few weeks back, the ludicrous Labour leadership team has fallen out big time with Keir Starmer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/18/brexit-row-keir-starmer-john-mcdonnell-threatens-labour-truce

    Here's my article. Trump implosion!! Seems a long time ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/09/joff-wild-says-keep-an-eye-on-keir/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    What would those headline figures look like as seats in a 600 seat Parliament - 350-360 Tories?
  • I'm being thick I think - I can't seem to find where to get a GE result 'Baxtered' from poll numbers on the Electoral Calculus pages - only region by region. Anyone familiar with this?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    I don't think the Lib Dems can take advantage of any such strategy with their parish council quality leader in charge. They'd need to dump him and win two or three by elections before 2020 to make this work. I'm not sure either is likely.

    The other problem for this strategy is that it could end up like Dave's cast iron guarantee over Lisbon. The option to deliver a second referendum may not exist after 2020, even if the Lib Dems find themselves in a coalition government on the back of the pledge the whole process of leaving the EU is going to be done by then.

    However, the main issue is that the Lib Dems are selling a false prospectus, a second referendum had the option of "yes to the government deal" or "WTO". I personally think we may need to have it anyway, but the Lib Dems are being very dishonest by pretending that any second referendum could have the government deal vs back into the EU. EU membership won't be on the ballot, which means any short term gain for the Lib Dems will be undone when people see how dishonest the policy is, and this just feeds into how little people trust the Lib Dems.
  • This question is quite leading. In reality people wouldn't be thinking as hard about a second referendum as they are when they're asked that question, and in any case a lot of them wouldn't be aware of the different parties' positions on it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Sandpit said:

    What would those headline figures look like as seats in a 600 seat Parliament - 350-360 Tories?

    I should think that all swing models would explode with such a scenario - LAB on 19 breaks into the core vote a long, long way. You'd need a massive national poll for this, with enough respondents in each constituency to make it 600 polls at once.
  • Off thread - French election


    All comments this morning on the debate are mentioning the two polls showing Fillon as the most convincing.
    All this love for Fillon from media could begin to get annonying for people that started to support him as an outside compared to the big two (Juppe and Sarkozy). Everybody expects à very tight result on Sunday.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    No it won't.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    And in how many of those seats the LibDems lost in 2015 - and now having a Brexit majority - would the voters (including tactical votes from Brexit Labour) tell the LibDems to "Piss off...."?

    Close to all.

  • dr_spyn said:

    Lib Dems will need a more convincing leader than Tim Farron if this was to take off.

    This is a major issue.

    But the other thing is what would be the result of such a stunt? The Lib Dems make a temporary improvement based on something that won't happen, the Tories win a landslide and Farron does the whole Canute thing. I don't really see the point. All you end up with is a wholly false recovery for the Lib Dems, ruin Labour and give the Tories ANOTHER ten years. How long does the opposition intend to give the Tories a free run for? Even as a Tory, I think we need opposition that means something at some point in the next decade.
  • Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    I thought we might be having a thread on "good night for the Tories in local elections".....?
  • dr_spyn said:

    Lib Dems will need a more convincing leader than Tim Farron if this was to take off.

    But the poll specifically mentioned him.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
  • A second referendum would just reinforce brexit. Foolish idea by the LD's

    The Lib Dems need something to differentiate themselves from the main two, this latest tilting at windmills may achieve that. Or maybe not.
    They could become the party with zero MP's if they are not careful.
    Like UKIP (Counting Carswell as Independent).
  • Off thread - French election


    All comments this morning on the debate are mentioning the two polls showing Fillon as the most convincing.
    All this love for Fillon from media could begin to get annonying for people that started to support him as an outside compared to the big two (Juppe and Sarkozy). Everybody expects à very tight result on Sunday.

    Debate tonight is significant. Fillon still has ground to make up, let's see if Juppe gets more fired up
  • Mr. Fletcher, might there not also be a concern that after the impact of the tuition fees nonsense is just starting to die down, Farron seems intent on pitching "Vote for me, I'll ignore the electorate's wishes" as his slogan?

    Incidentally, Amazon doesn't allow review prior to release, but Goodreads does. Might be of interest to those unsure of getting Kingdom Asunder:
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32852394-kingdom-asunder
  • Patrick said:

    I'm being thick I think - I can't seem to find where to get a GE result 'Baxtered' from poll numbers on the Electoral Calculus pages - only region by region. Anyone familiar with this?

    No need. Tory landslide on these numbers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    The Euro trading at near the 52 week low against USD, down about 5% since Trump won. I do wonder whether the likes of Unilever and Mondelez feel stupid for the bad press they have received now that Sterling has pared it's losses against the Euro to about 7% which is easily managed by gradual price rises.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Jonathan said:

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
    Politician takes credit for something that he/she didn't do. Film at 11.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    SKY - Japan PM's 'great confidence' in Trump's diplomacy debut

    Donald Trump has held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - the US President-elect's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader.

    http://news.sky.com/story/japanese-pm-shinzo-abe-first-foreign-leader-to-meet-donald-trump-10660158
  • Off thread - French election


    All comments this morning on the debate are mentioning the two polls showing Fillon as the most convincing.
    All this love for Fillon from media could begin to get annonying for people that started to support him as an outside compared to the big two (Juppe and Sarkozy). Everybody expects à very tight result on Sunday.

    Debate tonight is significant. Fillon still has ground to make up, let's see if Juppe gets more fired up
    Fillon has certainly come in on BF since I last looked.
  • Jonathan said:

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
    Be afraid when he claims to have watched Jackie Milburn play football, or sneak on a plane to the Bahamas. That will probably happen in about 45 minutes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471

    SKY - Japan PM's 'great confidence' in Trump's diplomacy debut

    Donald Trump has held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - the US President-elect's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader.

    http://news.sky.com/story/japanese-pm-shinzo-abe-first-foreign-leader-to-meet-donald-trump-10660158

    Trump's place is halfway between a lady's boudoir and a bond villain lair.
  • OGH: "In the big battle for Richmond Park, a week on Thursday, the LDs are going very strong on BREXIT....... Whether it will be enough to shift the incumbent MP with a big majority I do not know."

    I do ..... it won't! Although I'd have to say that the Yellow Team are comfortably ahead in terms of the number of supportive signs and posters on display in their driveways/front gardens/porches, etc. which is always a sure sign of effective organisational support by the local party. Plus of course they will benefit from a majority of those who would otherwise vote Labour, so it could be reasonably close, reducing Zac's majority to perhaps < 5,000.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711

    Off thread - French election


    All comments this morning on the debate are mentioning the two polls showing Fillon as the most convincing.
    All this love for Fillon from media could begin to get annonying for people that started to support him as an outside compared to the big two (Juppe and Sarkozy). Everybody expects à very tight result on Sunday.

    Debate tonight is significant. Fillon still has ground to make up, let's see if Juppe gets more fired up
    Errr.. the debate was LAST night.
  • jcesmond said:

    Jonathan said:

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
    Be afraid when he claims to have watched Jackie Milburn play football
    Who's done that?

  • Did Not Vote would have won 490 Electoral College votes:
    http://brilliantmaps.com/did-not-vote/
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    jcesmond said:

    Jonathan said:

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
    Be afraid when he claims to have watched Jackie Milburn play football, or sneak on a plane to the Bahamas. That will probably happen in about 45 minutes.
    When he sneaked onto the plane, it was under fire from Serbs snipers. And he was named after a mountaineer who became famous when he was 10.
  • I thought we might be having a thread on "good night for the Tories in local elections".....?

    Pigs might fly!
  • Jonathan said:

    SKY - Japan PM's 'great confidence' in Trump's diplomacy debut

    Donald Trump has held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - the US President-elect's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader.

    http://news.sky.com/story/japanese-pm-shinzo-abe-first-foreign-leader-to-meet-donald-trump-10660158

    Trump's place is halfway between a lady's boudoir and a bond villain lair.
    Trump's home is like something Barbara Cartland or Liberace would have dreamed up. Julian Clary maybe. It's definitive proof that he's at least a little bit gay.
  • OGH: "In the big battle for Richmond Park, a week on Thursday, the LDs are going very strong on BREXIT....... Whether it will be enough to shift the incumbent MP with a big majority I do not know."

    I do ..... it won't! Although I'd have to say that the Yellow Team are comfortably ahead in terms of the number of supportive signs and posters on display in their driveways/front gardens/porches, etc. which is always a sure sign of effective organisational support by the local party. Plus of course they will benefit from a majority of those who would otherwise vote Labour, so it could be reasonably close, reducing Zac's majority to perhaps < 5,000.

    BF seems to agree as LibDem still out at 4.2
  • I thought we might be having a thread on "good night for the Tories in local elections".....?

    Pigs might fly!
    On the upside at least we won't have loads of Tories bleating about 'meaningless parish council elections'.
  • jcesmond said:

    Jonathan said:

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
    Be afraid when he claims to have watched Jackie Milburn play football
    Who's done that?

    Blair. He was 4 when Milburn retired, and the seats he claimed to have been sitting in weren't installed until the 1990s.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411
    Patrick said:

    Jonathan said:

    SKY - Japan PM's 'great confidence' in Trump's diplomacy debut

    Donald Trump has held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - the US President-elect's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader.

    http://news.sky.com/story/japanese-pm-shinzo-abe-first-foreign-leader-to-meet-donald-trump-10660158

    Trump's place is halfway between a lady's boudoir and a bond villain lair.
    Trump's home is like something Barbara Cartland or Liberace would have dreamed up. Julian Clary maybe. It's definitive proof that he's at least a little bit gay.
    Maybe that is his link with Putin - the camp thing.
  • Jonathan said:

    SKY - Japan PM's 'great confidence' in Trump's diplomacy debut

    Donald Trump has held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - the US President-elect's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader.

    http://news.sky.com/story/japanese-pm-shinzo-abe-first-foreign-leader-to-meet-donald-trump-10660158

    Trump's place is halfway between a lady's boudoir and a bond villain lair.
    As Dolly Parton once said - "It costs a lot to look this cheap."
  • Patrick said:

    Jonathan said:

    SKY - Japan PM's 'great confidence' in Trump's diplomacy debut

    Donald Trump has held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe - the US President-elect's first face-to-face meeting with a foreign leader.

    http://news.sky.com/story/japanese-pm-shinzo-abe-first-foreign-leader-to-meet-donald-trump-10660158

    Trump's place is halfway between a lady's boudoir and a bond villain lair.
    Trump's home is like something Barbara Cartland or Liberace would have dreamed up. Julian Clary maybe. It's definitive proof that he's at least a little bit gay.
    Maybe that is his link with Putin - the camp thing.
    Careful you guys, he sues a lot.
    But then, so did Liberace.
  • Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?
  • jcesmond said:

    jcesmond said:

    Jonathan said:

    Trump's lies are so blatant that it indicates he may actually believe them. That's got to be a concern!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/17/trump-just-took-credit-for-stopping-ford-from-moving-a-plant-to-mexico-but-it-was-planning-to/

    If you take Trump at his word, he is dangerous.
    If he was not serious. And considers himself unbound. He is dangerous.


    Conclusion, batten down the hatches.
    Be afraid when he claims to have watched Jackie Milburn play football
    Who's done that?

    Blair. He was 4 when Milburn retired, and the seats he claimed to have been sitting in weren't installed until the 1990s.
    I yield to no one in contempt for Blair, but..

    'Blair football 'myth' cleared up

    But the Sunday Sun, the region's Sunday newspaper, has now told the former PM in an interview with him that it had misreported a BBC interview in which Mr Blair had talked about his support for Newcastle.
    The newspaper said that one of its sports reporters had been told by a friend about Mr Blair's interview on BBC radio, but that the reporter's friend had misheard what the former PM had actually said.
    The story was included in a match report and Mr Blair was told, "the rumour grew from there".'

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7749778.stm
  • I thought we might be having a thread on "good night for the Tories in local elections".....?

    Maybe when we get one, last night was

    + 2.4%
    - 1.3%
    -24.7%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    PB-ers have written off a couple of candidates recently as no-hopers, only for them to come through.

    Just because Farron went to Newcastle and has spent his life with 'ordinary' people is no reason to write him off. 'Experts' have been written off; how about the Oxbridge snobocracy?

    "Cos, TBH, that's how it comes across sometimes!

    Signed OKC (MA ARU) (AKA Almost a Real University!)
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    What would your two referendum options be?

    (1) Accept these terms to leave anyway
    (2) Go back and try harder
  • Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,514

    And in how many of those seats the LibDems lost in 2015 - and now having a Brexit majority - would the voters (including tactical votes from Brexit Labour) tell the LibDems to "Piss off...."?

    Close to all.

    Not many. Of the ten most marginal LibDem targets, six are remain (Twickenham 66% Remain, Cambridge 74% Remain) and four are Leave (Wells 53% Leave, Thornbury 53% Leave).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    Thanks for telling me what I wanted.

    I never knew that, but I assume you must know my mind and everybody elses better than us.
  • Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
  • Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    You haven’t a clue want leavers want and are merely projecting.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Yes, but any second referendum would be to either leave the EU under the terms of the deal, or to leave the EU to WTO terms with no deal - not to remain in the EU, we have already decided that.
  • King Cole, not sure that analogy holds. Is Farron speaking for the public or cutting through old political rhetoric that people are tired of? I'm not sure he is. His pro-migrant stance may hold favour with broadcast media but I don't think it has mass support. The public generally want tougher controls, despite the prolonged and persistently pro-migrant reporting by the broadcast media.

    And, as I said, "The Lib Dems will ignore what voters want" isn't necessarily a great slogan.

    Mr. Patrick, indeed. If legalistic shenanigans prevent our departure, it'll be an interesting conundrum when the next election rolls around.
  • GeoffM said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    What would your two referendum options be?

    (1) Accept these terms to leave anyway
    (2) Go back and try harder
    I have no idea...for all the talk of a honeymoon period for Mrs May I suspect that in two years the good ship Tory will be run well and truly aground on the rocks...whichever way the final terms go there will be dissent within the party and because of that I can't see the Government going the full five years
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    As I predicted on here a few weeks back, the ludicrous Labour leadership team has fallen out big time with Keir Starmer:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/nov/18/brexit-row-keir-starmer-john-mcdonnell-threatens-labour-truce

    Here's my article. Trump implosion!! Seems a long time ago.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/09/joff-wild-says-keep-an-eye-on-keir/

    Yet again Labour a shambolic mess.

    The Labour leadership want Brexit, no matter how many half hearted denials are issued.

    Ironic if they become as split over Europe as the tories used to be.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,119

    I thought we might be having a thread on "good night for the Tories in local elections".....?

    Don't be daft... Things can only ever be terrible for the crisis-hit Tories now Dave and Osborne have gone...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    England collapse. :/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284

    King Cole, not sure that analogy holds. Is Farron speaking for the public or cutting through old political rhetoric that people are tired of? I'm not sure he is. His pro-migrant stance may hold favour with broadcast media but I don't think it has mass support. The public generally want tougher controls, despite the prolonged and persistently pro-migrant reporting by the broadcast media.

    And, as I said, "The Lib Dems will ignore what voters want" isn't necessarily a great slogan.

    Mr. Patrick, indeed. If legalistic shenanigans prevent our departure, it'll be an interesting conundrum when the next election rolls around.

    IME the general opinion on migration is, and always has been, that we don't like immigration but Abdul, Josef and so on are fine fellows.
  • F1: from the BBC gossip column, seems Chinese investors are interested in acquiring a controlling stake in McLaren's parent company.
  • Floater said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    Thanks for telling me what I wanted.

    I never knew that, but I assume you must know my mind and everybody elses better than us.

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    You haven’t a clue want leavers want and are merely projecting.
    I'm amazed that anyone finds my remarks even remotely controversial.

    A simple question: why haven't UKIP disbanded and why hasn't Farage not vanished into retirement?

    Answer: they haven't remotely finished yet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,411

    King Cole, not sure that analogy holds. Is Farron speaking for the public or cutting through old political rhetoric that people are tired of? I'm not sure he is. His pro-migrant stance may hold favour with broadcast media but I don't think it has mass support. The public generally want tougher controls, despite the prolonged and persistently pro-migrant reporting by the broadcast media.

    And, as I said, "The Lib Dems will ignore what voters want" isn't necessarily a great slogan.

    Mr. Patrick, indeed. If legalistic shenanigans prevent our departure, it'll be an interesting conundrum when the next election rolls around.

    In fact, what the public wants in terms of immigration control is, perhaps ironically, quite similar to policies enforced in many countries where the migrants come from....
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    What happened to Tim Farron's promise that the Lib Dems would stand in the next election on an unequivocal commitment to keep Britain in the EU?

    That promise has implications for the attitude to take towards A50. If you say unequivocally that you want Britain to stay in the EU, then you should vote against invoking A50 regardless of whatever negotiating aims the government manages to cobble together and publish.

    After the referendum, I thought the Lib Dems had grown a pair.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    I fully accept that there are some Leavers like yourself who would Leave no matter how damaging the final Leave terms are to the UK economy and how much financial harm would be done to British people but I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view even in the 52% wgo voted Leave back in June .
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    No, we have already voted to leave the EU. A deal that retains the EU's freedom of movement is not Leaving.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited November 2016
    England's batsmen following the lead of their captain. 80/5 :o
  • Mr. Senior, indeed, and I accept some Remain voters would want to Remain no matter how much of our sovereignty is surrendered to an unelected foreign power. But I think most Remainers are more reasonable than that.

    King Cole, there's often a divergence between a general principle and individual circumstances. "Lock 'em up!" "It's a shame Joe got such a long sentence. He's a nice lad, fell in with the wrong crowd, etc."
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Off thread - French election


    All comments this morning on the debate are mentioning the two polls showing Fillon as the most convincing.
    All this love for Fillon from media could begin to get annonying for people that started to support him as an outside compared to the big two (Juppe and Sarkozy). Everybody expects à very tight result on Sunday.

    Thank you for the analysis, it's very helpful and illuminating.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    I fully accept that there are some Leavers like yourself who would Leave no matter how damaging the final Leave terms are to the UK economy and how much financial harm would be done to British people but I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view even in the 52% wgo voted Leave back in June .
    Leaving may be initially uncomfortable but a few years down the line the prospects are incredible. Our potential as a country will be unrestrained by the dead hand of the EU.

    You are just projecting your own inadequacies on to the aspirations and vision of those better than yourself.

  • Sandpit said:

    England's batsmen following the lead of their captain. 80/5 :o

    It's not great.
  • Mr. Senior, indeed, and I accept some Remain voters would want to Remain no matter how much of our sovereignty is surrendered to an unelected foreign power. But I think most Remainers are more reasonable than that.

    King Cole, there's often a divergence between a general principle and individual circumstances. "Lock 'em up!" "It's a shame Joe got such a long sentence. He's a nice lad, fell in with the wrong crowd, etc."

    What 'unelected foreign power' do you mean?
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    In the French presidential market, François Fillon looks a bargain at his current back price of 5.7. He performed well in the Republicans' third debate, and Nicolas Sarkozy's payments from Libya are getting talked about in the media again. He's likely to get into the Republicans' second round. When he does - on Monday - he will get most of Sarkozy's price and probably some of Alain Juppé's.

    I wouldn't be surprised if by the middle of next week there are three front-runners with similar prices: Juppé, Le Pen, Fillon. In the longer term, Fillon could well overtake the convicted crook Juppé.

    I'm no fan of primaries generally, but you've got to wonder how well they go with the two-round system. Imagine voting four times for who you want to be president. Some people may end up varying their choices merely to break the monotony - which could be advantageous for the main "change" candidate, Marine Le Pen.
  • Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    I fully accept that there are some Leavers like yourself who would Leave no matter how damaging the final Leave terms are to the UK economy and how much financial harm would be done to British people but I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view even in the 52% wgo voted Leave back in June .
    Just as there are some Remainers like yourself who would have us stay on the EU no matter how damaging it is to.our economy, our democracy and our independence. Thankfully as we have already seen such blind fanatical devotion to a foreign institution is not widely supported except by Lib Dems like yourself.
  • King Cole, not sure that analogy holds. Is Farron speaking for the public or cutting through old political rhetoric that people are tired of? I'm not sure he is. His pro-migrant stance may hold favour with broadcast media but I don't think it has mass support. The public generally want tougher controls, despite the prolonged and persistently pro-migrant reporting by the broadcast media.

    And, as I said, "The Lib Dems will ignore what voters want" isn't necessarily a great slogan.

    Mr. Patrick, indeed. If legalistic shenanigans prevent our departure, it'll be an interesting conundrum when the next election rolls around.

    IME the general opinion on migration is, and always has been, that we don't like immigration but Abdul, Josef and so on are fine fellows.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEux8I2wMY0&t=1m30s

  • No, we have already voted to leave the EU. A deal that retains the EU's freedom of movement is not Leaving.

    Switzerland is in the EU?
  • Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    ...I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view ...
    Life's not just about money though - as we have seen. Those who argue for Remain on grounds of financial fear seem completely tin-eared to the actual, immediate and irrevocable destruction that would be wrought on our democracy. If we somehow stay we're going to be part of a U.S.E. policy will ultimately be decided in Brussels. The two key tests of democracy (1. Can you kick the buggers out? 2 Can you thereby change policy direction?) will fail spectacularly. EU policy on the 'Project' is not changeable. In that sense the people of core EU are not free. We've had exciting reminders of the raw power of democracy just lately. I value that power. My own view is that those who call me a luddite for valuing this more than the avoidance of temporary economic pain are spineless useful idiots.
  • F1: from the BBC gossip column, seems Chinese investors are interested in acquiring a controlling stake in McLaren's parent company.

    That will be another high-tech company sold, then.
  • Mr. Dawning, did we vote to join the EU? Nope. Or for Juncker, or Tusk? No. Can rulings be imposed on us by QMV or the ECJ? Can elected representatives (even though the vast majority are foreign...) even propose legislation?

    It's a deliberately complicated, opaque, unaccountable mess.

    The country would love the economics of the EU without the politics. But that's not on offer.
  • Mr. L, assuming it's the same corporate body, it's currently half-owned by the Bahrainis [that might be a subordinate company, not sure].
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216

    F1: from the BBC gossip column, seems Chinese investors are interested in acquiring a controlling stake in McLaren's parent company.

    That will be another high-tech company sold, then.
    China is going be a big challenge for the rest of the world; think of the US without principles (Trump being an aberration, IMO)...
    https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/12/chinas-great-leap-backward/505817/
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Off thread - French election


    All comments this morning on the debate are mentioning the two polls showing Fillon as the most convincing.
    All this love for Fillon from media could begin to get annonying for people that started to support him as an outside compared to the big two (Juppe and Sarkozy). Everybody expects à very tight result on Sunday.

    Tight for first place or second place? I think Sarkozy will be third by more than 5%.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    GeoffM said:

    Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    I fully accept that there are some Leavers like yourself who would Leave no matter how damaging the final Leave terms are to the UK economy and how much financial harm would be done to British people but I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view even in the 52% wgo voted Leave back in June .
    Leaving may be initially uncomfortable but a few years down the line the prospects are incredible. Our potential as a country will be unrestrained by the dead hand of the EU.

    You are just projecting your own inadequacies on to the aspirations and vision of those better than yourself.

    And you are projecting blind faith in a return to UKs Victorian era supremacy . Wake up we are now in the 21st century . It is a different world .
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139

    F1: from the BBC gossip column, seems Chinese investors are interested in acquiring a controlling stake in McLaren's parent company.

    That will be another high-tech company sold, then.
    AIUI McLaren's already mostly foreign owned.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    F1: from the BBC gossip column, seems Chinese investors are interested in acquiring a controlling stake in McLaren's parent company.

    The same investors that Ron Dennis was trying to bring to the table - to which the other shareholders said no and told Mr Dennis to go away?
  • Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    ...I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view ...
    Life's not just about money though - as we have seen. Those who argue for Remain on grounds of financial fear seem completely tin-eared to the actual, immediate and irrevocable destruction that would be wrought on our democracy. If we somehow stay we're going to be part of a U.S.E. policy will ultimately be decided in Brussels. The two key tests of democracy (1. Can you kick the buggers out? 2 Can you thereby change policy direction?) will fail spectacularly. EU policy on the 'Project' is not changeable. In that sense the people of core EU are not free. We've had exciting reminders of the raw power of democracy just lately. I value that power. My own view is that those who call me a luddite for valuing this more than the avoidance of temporary economic pain are spineless useful idiots.
    Whisper it, but Dave's Deal specifically extricated us from 'ever closer union'.
  • Meeeeeeeeeeeeeoooowwwwwww...

    The Grand Tour review: Clarkson returns in 'filmic' show

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38024595
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169

    Meeeeeeeeeeeeeoooowwwwwww...

    The Grand Tour review: Clarkson returns in 'filmic' show

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-38024595

    What a surprise that pretty much the only review that doesn't think it's brilliant, comes from the BBC.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited November 2016

    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    I absolutely, utterly and unequivocally want the UK to leave the EU. On good terms if we can, on not so good if that is all that is available. But I will never support the UK becoming part of a U.S.E. The 'Project' is not for us. (It's going to suck for Europe too and a large amount of grief is coming in the 'core' countries when politics, economics and national identity all finally collide).
    The Remain camp are trying to put legal or additional electoral hurdles in the way of actually leaving.
    So...As long as we trigger Article 50 soon (legally, after supreme court or a GE landslide - I don't care which) and are therefore irrevocably committed to an exit on terms to be agreed or WTO rules as fallback - then I'm happy for any further votes or referendums to take place. I share the nagging fear of many that the establishment will indeed find a way to thwart the Leave decision.
    ...I suspect that such luddism is not a majority view ...
    Life's not just about money though - as we have seen. Those who argue for Remain on grounds of financial fear seem completely tin-eared to the actual, immediate and irrevocable destruction that would be wrought on our democracy. If we somehow stay we're going to be part of a U.S.E. policy will ultimately be decided in Brussels. The two key tests of democracy (1. Can you kick the buggers out? 2 Can you thereby change policy direction?) will fail spectacularly. EU policy on the 'Project' is not changeable. In that sense the people of core EU are not free. We've had exciting reminders of the raw power of democracy just lately. I value that power. My own view is that those who call me a luddite for valuing this more than the avoidance of temporary economic pain are spineless useful idiots.
    Whisper it, but Dave's Deal specifically extricated us from 'ever closer union'.
    Dave had no deal! Nothing in the EU is enforceable other than by Treaty. The sham deal is at the 'Read my lips - no new taxes' end of the believability spectrum. A Remain vote would have been a Hotel California vote. We'd have got assimilated eventually. Do you personally, by the way, believe Cameron or any politician's promise vs ink on signed paper?
This discussion has been closed.