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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LD demand for a 2nd referendum could have the same potency

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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sighs

    Aidan Kerr
    A British student union has outlawed newspapers whose editorials it disagrees with to combat 'fascism'. https://t.co/YNPf0sYcFj

    Banning news papers sounds the very definition of low key fascism.
    It's a journalism school too. Jonathan Pie's going bonkers on his twitter feed
    Jon T@jonnyboyt

    @JonathanPieNews it frees up three shelves for condoms and pot noodles?

    Amused..
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    There is an odd theme on this site, which seems to believe that the only people who don't like racism are the 'liberals'.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @haveigotnews: Donald Trump makes three appointments to senior team, with fourth horseman expected to be appointed shortly.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Good point. I'm a remainer and I don't want a second referendum. I want to get out as quickly as possible so we can start campaigning to get back in on the issues, not on the constitutional niceties.

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    Good afternoon, everyone.
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    Scott_P said:
    Is this where we guess what the Corbynista are going to sing? I propose The Stranglers 'No more Heroes', with opening line: "Whatever happened to Leon Trotsky?"
    The Red Flag also has the benefit of being the same tune as a carol.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    edited November 2016
    At the EU's farewell meeting today Obama was sat with Merkel, Renci, Theresa May, and Hollande

    Within one year only Theresa May may be left in Office
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Scott_P said:
    Is this where we guess what the Corbynista are going to sing? I propose The Stranglers 'No more Heroes', with opening line: "Whatever happened to Leon Trotsky?"
    The Red Flag also has the benefit of being the same tune as a carol.
    I much prefer the words to Oh, Christmas Tree!
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    Looking at Trump's picks in a number of positions, race-relations are going to get even more worse than they are now (which will reinforce the identity politics that PBers have told us is going to end). US is going to be an even more divided country by the time Trump's first term has ended.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,144
    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    Mortimer said:

    justin124 said:

    The crossbreaks from the Mori poll are interesting. In England the Tories have a 9% lead – the same margin as for GB as a whole. In May 2015 the Tories lead Labour by 9.5% in England which means that Mori is implying a tiny 0.25% swing from Tory to Labour there. Were that to happen it would result in 3 Labour gains – which would halve the Tory majority to 6.
    On the other hand, the Scotland crossbreak has the Tories on 37% and the SNP on 38%.- which I suspect stretches credulity a bit!

    As does the idea of Labour winning seats off the Tories.

    Justin - do you canvass or talk politics in the street? The reason I ask is that the general reaction to the Labour Party is laughter, outside of big cities.
    I have not canvassed for 20 years and am not a member of a party. In the pubs I find very varied reactions to Corbyn - though I am not a fan myself!
    Its not just Corbyn - it is the party itself. Too much talking mode and not enough listening.
    There's a reason Labour daren't listen....
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Looking at Trump's picks in a number of positions, race-relations are going to get even more worse than they are now (which will reinforce the identity politics that PBers have told us is going to end). US is going to be an even more divided country by the time Trump's first term has ended.

    @ChadPergram: Reagan nominated Sen Sessions for the federal bench in '86. Nomination blew up over Sessions's views on race. Reagan yanked nomination
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    PlatoSaid said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Sighs

    Aidan Kerr
    A British student union has outlawed newspapers whose editorials it disagrees with to combat 'fascism'. https://t.co/YNPf0sYcFj

    Banning news papers sounds the very definition of low key fascism.
    It's a journalism school too. Jonathan Pie's going bonkers on his twitter feed
    Snow melting alert.
    Snow falling in Leeds right now.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Scott_P said:
    Is this where we guess what the Corbynista are going to sing? I propose The Stranglers 'No more Heroes', with opening line: "Whatever happened to Leon Trotsky?"
    No doubt all the idiots who sent "Ding Dong the Witch is Dead" soaring up the charts after Margaret Thatcher died will buy a copy, so it may be in with a chance.
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    Scott_P said:

    Looking at Trump's picks in a number of positions, race-relations are going to get even more worse than they are now (which will reinforce the identity politics that PBers have told us is going to end). US is going to be an even more divided country by the time Trump's first term has ended.

    @ChadPergram: Reagan nominated Sen Sessions for the federal bench in '86. Nomination blew up over Sessions's views on race. Reagan yanked nomination
    Interesting info Scott, thanks. Though I don't see Trump following in Reagan's footsteps on this one, sadly.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    I must say how entertaining Trump's chess playing is. He's luring the media onto his ground - just as he did with his primary opponents.

    He dangles Romney like a shiny object re SoS, then appoints two tough guys in tough guy jobs - if reports are right. And General Flynn is confirmed as NSA chap too.

    I see David Axelrod has tweeted his support for The Donald today re making appointments timetable. Funny old world.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    PlatoSaid said:

    Scott_P said:
    Is this where we guess what the Corbynista are going to sing? I propose The Stranglers 'No more Heroes', with opening line: "Whatever happened to Leon Trotsky?"
    The Red Flag also has the benefit of being the same tune as a carol.
    I much prefer the words to Oh, Christmas Tree!

    O Tannenbaum

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    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    On Topic.
    If you compare polling now with 5 years ago, when Labour already had a solid lead, its hard to see Labour getting more than 20% in a General Election. For swing voters, there will be a new question that they havent faced since 1982 : Tories or Liberals ? Labour will be reduced to fringe status.
    All that is before we factor Brexit in.

    On the other hand,Labour was 10/11 points behind at the same stage of the 1987 Parliament and went on to win 35.2% of the vote in 1992.
    Labour has two months left to make a breakthrough with that precedent. The average Con lead in Dec 1988 (18 months after the GE) was 8%, as it was in Jan 1989. In February, it had fallen to 2%, where it stayed more-or-less until May. By June 1989 (exactly two years from the GE), Labour had an average lead of 7%.
    Yes - at the end of Jan 1989 there were polls putting the Tories ahead by 11,12 and 13%.
    I'm not sure of the point you're trying to make there?
    I am agreeing with you really and just pointing out that the Tories still had a big lead at that stage - which did not happen again until the end of 1990 when Major replaced Thatcher.
    Ah - Ok. Thanks.
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    Scott_P said:

    It is symbolic of their struggle against oppression.

    Mr. Morgan: I know how difficult it must be for you to overcome all those years of upper middle-class suburban oppression. Must be tough. But the next time you storm the PTA crusading for better... lunch meat, or whatever it is you white girls complain about, ask them WHY they can't buy a book written by a black man!

    http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0147800/quotes?item=qt0403004
    I was quoting a film, but not that one!
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    Scott_P said:

    The only problem with this week's cover of The Economist is that Putin is wearing a shirt.

    No the problem is that it shows the two most powerful men in the world, alongside a nincompoop who can't get elected in Kent.
    If he's a nincompoop, what does that say of those who lost the Referendum?
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.
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    Scott_P said:

    Looking at Trump's picks in a number of positions, race-relations are going to get even more worse than they are now (which will reinforce the identity politics that PBers have told us is going to end). US is going to be an even more divided country by the time Trump's first term has ended.

    @ChadPergram: Reagan nominated Sen Sessions for the federal bench in '86. Nomination blew up over Sessions's views on race. Reagan yanked nomination
    Ron was just a mainstream liberal though. The guy didn't even admire oppressive Russian dictatorships.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    Interesting strategy. Trump reacts to media reports, crisis in his team and changes tack will be the story.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    If the reports of Jeff Sessions as AG are true, every liberal head is going to explode.
    He's hardcore.
    Edit and another Steve Holland
    Trump has offered position of CIA director to US Rep Mike Pompeo and Pompeo has accepted -transition official

    PMSL
    "Pompeo opposes closing Guantánamo Bay detention camp.[12] After a 2013 visit to the prison, Pompeo said, of the prisoners who were on hunger strike, "It looked to me like a lot of them had put on weight." " wikipedia
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016

    Scott_P said:

    it's hell in a hand cart time.

    Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon!

    https://twitter.com/scottories/status/799593709394345984
    SCons retain a borders council seat? Don't even need to hold page 36 for that one.
    The retiree had defected to Labour from Con before retiring.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    That would be a trivial game to play.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    I have a sense thats a load of shit.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    Mortimer said:



    Justin - do you canvass or talk politics in the street? The reason I ask is that the general reaction to the Labour Party is laughter, outside of big cities.

    No it isn't - not in the WWC East Midlands division where I'm canvassing, at least. Perhaps we're all projecting our own contact circles - do you do much canvassing?

    As I said the other day, though, quite a few people who usually lean Labour nonetheless think May has been not too bad so far - Brexit but not bonkers - though they do wonder what she'll deliver.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,291
    Cue for MSP to demand inquiry.
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    MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    There are lots of people on here who are good at betting on elections/defenestrations etc. But it is surprising how many don't seem to understand how politics works. Such as the Tories, UKIPpers and other Brexiteers who seem to think because neither Tim Farron nor the Lib Dem stance on Europe appeal to them, then they won't appeal to anyone else either. No politician can appeal to everyone (trying to do it is what has debased politics because it removes the ability to have principles and stand up for your core values). But as the chart in the thread header shows, significantly more people express support for the Lib Dems based on a pro-EU stance than voted Lib Dem in 2015. We may not harvest votes from all the 48% but the chances are that we would harvest quite a few of them - see Witney.

    As for the idea that the constituencies the Tories took from the Lib Dems that voted Leave will remain Tory, you seem to have forgotten that one quite possible scenario is for the Remain vote to coalesce around the Lib Dems while the Leave vote gets split by other parties. There are Leavers on the left who will never vote Tory. And there are Remainers who would normally vote Tory but feel strongly enough to switch their vote.

    The other thing that doesn't seem to have entered anyone's head is that the Lib Dem stance on Europe arises out of conviction that we are actually better off in. It isn't just focus group positioning, it's actually pretty fundamental to most of the people in the party. So that's what the Lib Dems will campaign to do. No chance of us changing our minds. Bit like Iraq really - vilified at the time for our stance, but vindicated afterwards. Some are vilifying us now. Maybe we will be vindicated later on the EU too.
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    At the EU's farewell meeting today Obama was sat with Merkel, Renci, Theresa May, and Hollande

    Within one year only Theresa May may be left in Office

    Maybe ;-)
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
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    At the EU's farewell meeting today Obama was sat with Merkel, Renci, Theresa May, and Hollande

    Within one year only Theresa May may be left in Office

    Maybe ;-)
    I joked that we could see President Trump, and PM Corby, and how crazy that would be,


    I'm not laughing anymore.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Mortimer said:



    Justin - do you canvass or talk politics in the street? The reason I ask is that the general reaction to the Labour Party is laughter, outside of big cities.

    No it isn't - not in the WWC East Midlands division where I'm canvassing, at least. Perhaps we're all projecting our own contact circles - do you do much canvassing?

    As I said the other day, though, quite a few people who usually lean Labour nonetheless think May has been not too bad so far - Brexit but not bonkers - though they do wonder what she'll deliver.
    You need to get out and talk to the WWC.. mention Corbyn and you'll understand. The WWC I come into contact with think Corbyn is a joke. They wont vote Labour whilst he is leader. That's why the 33% figure for Labour VI is a joke.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956

    Mortimer said:



    Justin - do you canvass or talk politics in the street? The reason I ask is that the general reaction to the Labour Party is laughter, outside of big cities.

    No it isn't - not in the WWC East Midlands division where I'm canvassing, at least. Perhaps we're all projecting our own contact circles - do you do much canvassing?

    As I said the other day, though, quite a few people who usually lean Labour nonetheless think May has been not too bad so far - Brexit but not bonkers - though they do wonder what she'll deliver.
    Yup - quite a bit of canvassing. The one or two people who say they vote Labour usually preface it with 'used to' or follow it with a meek smile.

    More significantly, amongst my large group of 20s friends (all of whom voted Remain) there are at most 2 or 3 labour voters. Mostly NOTA, Greens, Lib Dems and even a few Tories.....

    When Labour is brought up it is with derision, even by those 2 or 3.
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,324
    edited November 2016
    Jonathan said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    Interesting strategy. Trump reacts to media reports, crisis in his team and changes tack will be the story.
    Interesting insight into the mind of the Trump devotees though - an obsession with the media and how to score points against them is a fundamental concern.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    That might have something to do with demand for VW cars following Dieselgate...
    Talking abiut German ibstitutions whats up with DB? Been quiet recently - could Trump get irritated by Merkel's caveated remarks and lash out?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: PM says will update MErkel on Brexit process which is "on track" for smooth exit, and "stand ready" to trigger article 50" by end March

    Ok then...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    It will be interesting to see what happens. I think Trump will either be a disaster or a great President. Looking forward to January.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    Sessions is a terrible pick. I really hope that this isn't going to happen. Personally I think Trump is colourblind in terms of race, but that means he doesn't see it as a big deal and doesn't see appointing someone like Sessions who isn't colourblind as a big deal, when it is.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    edited November 2016
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Try to do anything non-domestic or commerical refurb wise, even a couple of rooms, and you'll spend a few million. The numbers of different contractors involved in even tiny projects now are huge.

    My honest reaction when I heard the 369m figure was 'is that all'.

    And isnt it going to be paid for using the Crown's money anyway - from the estates?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    Interesting strategy. Trump reacts to media reports, crisis in his team and changes tack will be the story.
    Interesting insight into the mind of the Trump devotees though - an obsession with the media and how to score points against is a fundamental concern.
    Yet another concern on a mountainous pile of concerns, which requires an oxygen mask to get to the summit.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Its not the age of austerity, its the recovery from Brown's madness. HMQ and the nation deserve Buck house to be in top order..
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,736
    MrsB said:

    There are lots of people on here who are good at betting on elections/defenestrations etc. But it is surprising how many don't seem to understand how politics works. Such as the Tories, UKIPpers and other Brexiteers who seem to think because neither Tim Farron nor the Lib Dem stance on Europe appeal to them, then they won't appeal to anyone else either. No politician can appeal to everyone (trying to do it is what has debased politics because it removes the ability to have principles and stand up for your core values). But as the chart in the thread header shows, significantly more people express support for the Lib Dems based on a pro-EU stance than voted Lib Dem in 2015. We may not harvest votes from all the 48% but the chances are that we would harvest quite a few of them - see Witney.

    As for the idea that the constituencies the Tories took from the Lib Dems that voted Leave will remain Tory, you seem to have forgotten that one quite possible scenario is for the Remain vote to coalesce around the Lib Dems while the Leave vote gets split by other parties. There are Leavers on the left who will never vote Tory. And there are Remainers who would normally vote Tory but feel strongly enough to switch their vote.

    The other thing that doesn't seem to have entered anyone's head is that the Lib Dem stance on Europe arises out of conviction that we are actually better off in. It isn't just focus group positioning, it's actually pretty fundamental to most of the people in the party. So that's what the Lib Dems will campaign to do. No chance of us changing our minds. Bit like Iraq really - vilified at the time for our stance, but vindicated afterwards. Some are vilifying us now. Maybe we will be vindicated later on the EU too.

    I pretty much agree with this as it is clearly, strategically, the 'right' thing for your party to do. It is however a great shame that it ends up being European-ism, rather than Liberalism that is your parties raison d'etre - those of us who are liberal leavers are finding other parties which potentially weakens the cause of liberalism overall.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Try to do anything non-domestic or commerical refurb wise, even a couple of rooms, and you'll spend a few million. The numbers of different contractors involved in even tiny projects now are huge.
    Did they go to the private sector to pay for it? I am sure Sports Direct would have sponsored the summer open house.

    In the old days they used to marry off members of the family to pay for it.
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    Jonathan said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    Interesting strategy. Trump reacts to media reports, crisis in his team and changes tack will be the story.
    Interesting insight into the mind of the Trump devotees though - an obsession with the media and how to score points against them is a fundamental concern.
    tbf it has worked thus far
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    Jonathan said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    Interesting strategy. Trump reacts to media reports, crisis in his team and changes tack will be the story.
    Interesting insight into the mind of the Trump devotees though - an obsession with the media and how to score points against them is a fundamental concern.
    They also seem to be obsessed with 'liberals' and their reactions to things.

    On Kanye, it's really funny how things have gone as far as he is concerned. His wife Kim is a Hilary Clinton and BLM supporter. I wonder what she makes of his comments.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Try to do anything non-domestic or commerical refurb wise, even a couple of rooms, and you'll spend a few million. The numbers of different contractors involved in even tiny projects now are huge.
    Did they go to the private sector to pay for it? I am sure Sports Direct would have sponsored the summer open house.

    In the old days they used to marry off members of the family to pay for it.
    Crown estates money, isn't it?
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Its not the age of austerity, its the recovery from Brown's madness. HMQ and the nation deserve Buck house to be in top order..
    The Tory magic money tree is bountiful.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    The Coming of the Fourth Reich.
    Fifth, surely Trumpland is the fourth.
    If the Holy Roman Empire was the First Reich, what does that make the original Roman Empire?
    I thought HRE was the second and Roman Empire was the first?

    Edit looking at it I'm wrong. I suppose the HRE was German more than Roman and the original Roman Empire wasn't German so is ignored.
    That would be my take too but still, it tried to appropriate Rome's heritage long after the HRE ceased to be 'Roman' in any meaningful sense.

    Then again, it wasn't just the Axis which had trouble with numbering: there's no good reason to call World War II the second world war.
    It should be the Third World War (taking into account the War of Spanish Succession)
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    grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Mike's so sweet whenever he desperately clings to a tiny nugget of hope for a Lib Dem recovery.

    Yes, Mike. The route back for the Lib Dems will be to be the only party telling the electorate to go fuck themselves.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Lennon said:

    I pretty much agree with this as it is clearly, strategically, the 'right' thing for your party to do. It is however a great shame that it ends up being European-ism, rather than Liberalism that is your parties raison d'etre - those of us who are liberal leavers are finding other parties which potentially weakens the cause of liberalism overall.

    I agree, I always used to vote Lib Dem, but ever since Nick Clegg became leader there has been a shift from the centre ground and the traditions of liberalism. Nowadays I lump the Lib Dems in with the likes of the Greens and Corbyn's new old Labour. i.e. Protest groups playing politics.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited November 2016
    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    The Coming of the Fourth Reich.
    Fifth, surely Trumpland is the fourth.
    If the Holy Roman Empire was the First Reich, what does that make the original Roman Empire?
    I thought HRE was the second and Roman Empire was the first?

    Edit looking at it I'm wrong. I suppose the HRE was German more than Roman and the original Roman Empire wasn't German so is ignored.
    That would be my take too but still, it tried to appropriate Rome's heritage long after the HRE ceased to be 'Roman' in any meaningful sense.

    Then again, it wasn't just the Axis which had trouble with numbering: there's no good reason to call World War II the second world war.
    It should be the Third World War (taking into account the War of Spanish Succession)
    Make that four to allow for the Seven Years War.

    Edit: you could make a case for the American Revolutionary War too, which was fought in Europe, Southern Africa and India as well as America.
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    Mike's so sweet whenever he desperately clings to a tiny nugget of hope for a Lib Dem recovery.
    Yes, Mike. The route back for the Lib Dems will be to be the only party telling the electorate to go fuck themselves.

    :smile:
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    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Try to do anything non-domestic or commerical refurb wise, even a couple of rooms, and you'll spend a few million. The numbers of different contractors involved in even tiny projects now are huge.

    My honest reaction when I heard the 369m figure was 'is that all'.

    And isnt it going to be paid for using the Crown's money anyway - from the estates?
    And just wait until you get into approved contractors and framework agreements. A firm I once worked for were contracted years ago for a job at Buck House. Of the 40 or so people put forward to work on it. I think about 3 got approval.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    That Axelrod comments

    Washington Examiner
    David Axelrod scolds critics of Donald Trump's transition progress https://t.co/jOWERD9e4F https://t.co/psYO1xj9CU
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,792

    What is it with Brexiteers arse crawling the US Right?

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/799595434331095040

    He's looking for a new job. Flattery doesn't get you everywhere, but it helps.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited November 2016

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    It will be interesting to see what happens. I think Trump will either be a disaster or a great President. Looking forward to January.
    Expectation management. Obama failed miserably to live up to the great expectations bestowed on him by an enthralled media and has as a result, appeared a lesser President in retrospect. Don’t know if Trump will be a disaster or great, but I doubt he’ll turn out to be the devil incarnate as painted by some and that will benefit how his time as POTUS is perceived. .
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    FF43 said:

    What is it with Brexiteers arse crawling the US Right?

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/799595434331095040

    He's looking for a new job. Flattery doesn't get you everywhere, but it helps.
    Is there any point whatsoever talking to Ted Cruz? He'd be better off talking to Nigel.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Sell 'em both to the Donald. Would do wonders for Anglo-American relations.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Its not the age of austerity, its the recovery from Brown's madness. HMQ and the nation deserve Buck house to be in top order..
    The Tory magic money tree is bountiful.
    I doubt you can understand the "value" of HMQ to the nation.
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    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    It will be interesting to see what happens. I think Trump will either be a disaster or a great President. Looking forward to January.
    Expectation management. Obama failed miserably to live up to the great expectations bestowed on him by an enthralled media and has as a result, appeared a lesser President in retrospect. Don’t know if Trump will be a disaster or great, but I doubt he’ll will turn out to be the devil incarnate as painted by some and that will benefit how his time as POTUS is perceived. .
    To that extent, I felt a bit sorry for Obama. The expectations were absurdly high when he won.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Its not the age of austerity, its the recovery from Brown's madness. HMQ and the nation deserve Buck house to be in top order..
    The Tory magic money tree is bountiful.
    I doubt you can understand the "value" of HMQ to the nation.
    Tories borrow, borrow and borrow again.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    PlatoSaid said:

    Bill Mitchell
    I have a sense Trump is holding back on appointing women just to suck the media in so they complain about it, then BAMM, women appointments.

    It will be interesting to see what happens. I think Trump will either be a disaster or a great President. Looking forward to January.
    Expectation management. Obama failed miserably to live up to the great expectations bestowed on him by an enthralled media and has as a result, appeared a lesser President in retrospect. Don’t know if Trump will be a disaster or great, but I doubt he’ll will turn out to be the devil incarnate as painted by some and that will benefit how his time as POTUS is perceived. .
    To that extent, I felt a bit sorry for Obama. The expectations were absurdly high when he won.
    Somehow I doubt Trump is sitting by the phone waiting for the Nobel Peace Prize committee to call.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    Expectation management. Obama failed miserably to live up to the great expectations bestowed on him by an enthralled media and has as a result, appeared a lesser President in retrospect. Don’t know if Trump will be a disaster or great, but I doubt he’ll turn out to be the devil incarnate as painted by some and that will benefit how his time as POTUS is perceived. .

    Indeed when people seriously compare him to Hitler all Trump has to do is play golf for four years and let Pence run the country and Trump will surpass their expectations.
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    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    £369M for Buck House? That's a lot of money.

    It really isn't - look at the Palace of Westminster refurb....
    In a so-called age of austerity it's huge. The Westminster refurb. is obscenely expensive.
    Its not the age of austerity, its the recovery from Brown's madness. HMQ and the nation deserve Buck house to be in top order..
    The Tory magic money tree is bountiful.
    I doubt you can understand the "value" of HMQ to the nation.
    Tories borrow, borrow and borrow again.
    Labour would have paid for it under a PFI contract. £15 billion and 10 years later, it would need restoring again.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:

    Indeed when people seriously compare him to Hitler all Trump has to do is play golf for four years and let Pence run the country and Trump will surpass their expectations.

    Not if he appoints Goebbels and Himmler to his cabinet
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    FF43 said:

    What is it with Brexiteers arse crawling the US Right?

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/799595434331095040

    He's looking for a new job. Flattery doesn't get you everywhere, but it helps.
    Bit embarrassing really. You can see the thought process: 'Nigel got a load of attention by cosying up to a big American politico, so now I'd better do it.'
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @smashmorePH: MPs vote 253 to 37 on second reading Pat Glass' Private Member's Bill, designed to reverse the Govt's boundary changes

    Labour on a 3 line whip apparently
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    Indeed when people seriously compare him to Hitler all Trump has to do is play golf for four years and let Pence run the country and Trump will surpass their expectations.

    Not if he appoints Goebbels and Himmler to his cabinet
    Thanks for demonstrating my point.
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    Mr. Jonathan, Brown borrowed £153bn during a boom, then left the Coalition the biggest deficit in history. Almost every measure to reduce the deficit has been opposed by Labour.

    If Labour want to re-enact Ed Miliband's savaging in Yorkshire at the next election, I daresay the other parties won't mind one bit.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    glw said:

    Thanks for demonstrating my point.

    The point being that the actions of the administration are not limited to the actions of the man alone
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    edited November 2016

    Mr. Jonathan, Brown borrowed £153bn during a boom, then left the Coalition the biggest deficit in history. Almost every measure to reduce the deficit has been opposed by Labour.

    If Labour want to re-enact Ed Miliband's savaging in Yorkshire at the next election, I daresay the other parties won't mind one bit.

    May doesnt care about deficits. Borrowing for Brexit, borrowing for Buck House. Someone in the Treasury has clearly said, "screw it lets go for it".
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    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    The Coming of the Fourth Reich.
    Fifth, surely Trumpland is the fourth.
    If the Holy Roman Empire was the First Reich, what does that make the original Roman Empire?
    I thought HRE was the second and Roman Empire was the first?

    Edit looking at it I'm wrong. I suppose the HRE was German more than Roman and the original Roman Empire wasn't German so is ignored.
    That would be my take too but still, it tried to appropriate Rome's heritage long after the HRE ceased to be 'Roman' in any meaningful sense.

    Then again, it wasn't just the Axis which had trouble with numbering: there's no good reason to call World War II the second world war.
    It should be the Third World War (taking into account the War of Spanish Succession)
    But what then of the

    Seven Years War?
    French Revolutionary / Napoleonic Wars?
    Thirty Years War?

    For what it's worth, I think that the Seven Years and Napoleonic should certainly count. The geographic limits of the other two place question marks above them for me although they did bring in most if not all of the major European states.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    PlatoSaid said:
    I'm pretty sure Kim was tempted by the Donald. Not sure how she voted in the end. Paris Hilton has also confirmed she voted Trump.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    dr_spyn said:

    Cue for MSP to demand inquiry.
    First they came for the toblerones and Ibdid not bspeak out because they are overpriced and minging, then they came for the maltesers and I was all like, screw you I'm taking up arms.
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    Mr. Jonathan, we'll see how the Autumn Statement goes, though I must admit I suspect Hammond will not meet with approval.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Charles said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sean_F said:

    Am slightly puzzled at the Brexiteer's opposition to a second referendum on the result of the Brexit terms - what if the Government find that the best deal they can get includes only marginal controls on free movement - wouldn't Leavers then want a second referendum?

    Very good point. However, I suspect that whatever the May government agrees will be met with noisy accusations of betrayal. It's gone beyond mere EU membership now - the forces of Leave want to foist their own version of Trumpism upon the United Kingdom. That's their next project.
    The Coming of the Fourth Reich.
    Fifth, surely Trumpland is the fourth.
    If the Holy Roman Empire was the First Reich, what does that make the original Roman Empire?
    I thought HRE was the second and Roman Empire was the first?

    Edit looking at it I'm wrong. I suppose the HRE was German more than Roman and the original Roman Empire wasn't German so is ignored.
    That would be my take too but still, it tried to appropriate Rome's heritage long after the HRE ceased to be 'Roman' in any meaningful sense.

    Then again, it wasn't just the Axis which had trouble with numbering: there's no good reason to call World War II the second world war.
    It should be the Third World War (taking into account the War of Spanish Succession)
    But what then of the

    Seven Years War?
    French Revolutionary / Napoleonic Wars?
    Thirty Years War?

    For what it's worth, I think that the Seven Years and Napoleonic should certainly count. The geographic limits of the other two place question marks above them for me although they did bring in most if not all of the major European states.

    Perhaps we should just rename them the First World War and the Second World War of the 20th Century.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    Thanks for demonstrating my point.

    The point being that the actions of the administration are not limited to the actions of the man alone
    Of course, but exaggerating how bad they will be simply makes it easier for them to get off the hook. Why make it easier for Trump?
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    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    I'm pretty sure Kim was tempted by the Donald. Not sure how she voted in the end. Paris Hilton has also confirmed she voted Trump.
    Kim came out and denied that she'd said that. Not really surprised that Paris voted for Trump.
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    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    I'm pretty sure Kim was tempted by the Donald. Not sure how she voted in the end. Paris Hilton has also confirmed she voted Trump.
    Kim came out and denied that she'd said that. Not really surprised that Paris voted for Trump.
    Those hotel moguls have to stick together.
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    glw said:

    let Pence run the country and Trump will surpass their expectations


    think trump may be the saner of the two
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    Alistair said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Cue for MSP to demand inquiry.
    First they came for the toblerones and Ibdid not bspeak out because they are overpriced and minging, then they came for the maltesers and I was all like, screw you I'm taking up arms.
    Brexit..making the national healthier.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, Putin is our friend now apparently. I'll come back when Russian troops are in Sofia. Bye for now.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,792
    edited November 2016
    I think a second referendum is problematic:

    1. We have already decided to leave in a referendum. A second referendum could only delay an exit on particular terms until better terms are found. Unless the second referendum is specifically "Don't bother".

    2. The EU process doesn't allow for Britain's continuation in the EU after Article 50 is triggered, but we won't know the terms until just before the two year exit deadline. Possibly just days before that deadline. The last referendum was a vote for a pig in a poke. We own that pig now and it has a high risk of being a very crap pig, but we knew that, or should have known that, when we voted for it.

    3. The EU is a multilateral body. It can't afford a member unilaterally to threaten exit and demand better terms. Membership needs to be on standardised terms, a point that wasn't sufficiently appreciated about Cameron's "renogotiation". If we go back, it will either be on the same terms as before or without the opt-outs.

    Incidentally, the Lib Dems didn't demand a second vote on Iraq after the invasion was launched. They were consistent in their opposition to Britain's participation in it. This time their consistent theme could be that Britain needs to be integrated with the EU. The EU won't go away after we leave, nor will the need for a British relationship with it. Ironically, the EU will never be more dominant in our affairs than when we leave it.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Ned Donovan
    All kicking off in Gibraltar's territorial waters as Spain decides to piss off the Royal Navy. https://t.co/ytciC0G0XW
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MaxPB said:

    Sessions is a terrible pick. I really hope that this isn't going to happen. Personally I think Trump is colourblind in terms of race, but that means he doesn't see it as a big deal and doesn't see appointing someone like Sessions who isn't colourblind as a big deal, when it is.

    One of Trump SCOTUS shortlist judges filed consensual homosexual activity at home in the same bracket as incest and bestiality. In an actual judgement (that was overturned by SCOTUS).
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    PlatoSaid said:
    I'm pretty sure Kim was tempted by the Donald. Not sure how she voted in the end. Paris Hilton has also confirmed she voted Trump.
    Kim came out and denied that she'd said that. Not really surprised that Paris voted for Trump.
    Those hotel moguls have to stick together.
    I thought Paris messed it up for the entire family and they were all disinherited. Could be wrong as not up too speed on celebrity gossip.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2016
    glw said:

    Of course, but exaggerating how bad they will be simply makes it easier for them to get off the hook.

    It's not clear that the concerns are exaggerated
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited November 2016
    From Brendan O'Neill

    As fun as it is to watch those anti-Trump demos on which white people carry placards slagging off white people, and to read white columnists raging against white rage, and to see white women in the press tearing their hair out over white women who voted for Trump, it’s time to take down the modern left’s obsession with white people.

    For following Trump’s shock ascendancy to the White House – another WHITE institution – it’s become clear what all this ‘white people’ talk really represents. It’s not a radical, post-racist attempt to expose where power lies in society and discuss how it might be challenged. On the contrary, it’s a racially charged, dehumanising expression of class contempt by well-connected white people, and some non-whites, for the wrong kind of white people: bad whites; unthinking whites; the dim or undeserving poor; or what used to be known, in times when vile elitism at least had the decency to be honest, as ‘the underclass’.

    http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/everyone-needs-to-stop-talking-about-white-people-trump/19008#.WC8MiFmnxTf
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    TonyETonyE Posts: 938
    FF43 said:

    I think a second referendum is problematic:

    1. We have already decided to leave in a referendum. A second referendum could only delay an exit on particular terms until better terms are found. Unless the second referendum is specifically "Don't bother".

    2. The EU process doesn't allow for Britain's continuation in the EU after Article 50 is triggered, but we won't know the terms until just before the two year exit deadline. Possibly just days before that deadline. The last referendum was a vote for a pig in a poke. We own that pig now and it has a high risk of being a very crap pig, but we knew that, or should have known that, when we voted for it.

    3. The EU is a multilateral body. It can't afford a member unilaterally to threaten exit and demand better terms. Members needs to be on standardised terms, a point that wasn't sufficiently appreciated about Cameron's "renogotiation". If we go back, it will either be on the same terms as before or without the opt-outs.

    Incidentally, the Lib Dems didn't demand a second vote on Iraq after the invasion was launched. They were consistent in their opposition to Britain's participation in it. This time their consistent theme could be that Britain needs to be integrated with the EU. The EU won't go away after we leave, nor will the need for a British relationship with it. Ironically, the EU will never be more dominant in our affairs than when we leave it.

    Point two is now being argued, and the Supreme Court is expected to ask the ECJ for a ruling on that according to some.
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    Alistair said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sessions is a terrible pick. I really hope that this isn't going to happen. Personally I think Trump is colourblind in terms of race, but that means he doesn't see it as a big deal and doesn't see appointing someone like Sessions who isn't colourblind as a big deal, when it is.

    One of Trump SCOTUS shortlist judges filed consensual homosexual activity at home in the same bracket as incest and bestiality. In an actual judgement (that was overturned by SCOTUS).
    What the hell
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    One of Trump SCOTUS shortlist judges filed consensual homosexual activity at home in the same bracket as incest and bestiality. In an actual judgement (that was overturned by SCOTUS).

    Exaggeration...
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    Scott_P said:

    glw said:

    Indeed when people seriously compare him to Hitler all Trump has to do is play golf for four years and let Pence run the country and Trump will surpass their expectations.

    Not if he appoints Goebbels and Himmler to his cabinet
    But they are dead.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,792
    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    What is it with Brexiteers arse crawling the US Right?

    https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/799595434331095040

    He's looking for a new job. Flattery doesn't get you everywhere, but it helps.
    Is there any point whatsoever talking to Ted Cruz? He'd be better off talking to Nigel.
    Yep. Ted Cruz the man who makes Donald Trump look good - or at least rational.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    But they are dead.

    As is Hitler. Unless...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2016
    @faisalislam:
    October: "We will trigger Article 50 before the end of March "
    November: "We stand ready to trigger Article 50 by end of March"
    #brexitology
This discussion has been closed.