politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump does win it will make a mockery of the “rule” that th
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I was distracted and missed out.TheScreamingEagles said:
That has to be the most shocking post in the history of PBMP_SE said:
Could of got 15/1 for Leave on the evening of the referendum.Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: BREXIT odds on morning of June 23:
1/4 REMAIN
3/1 LEAVE
Current #ElectionDay odds:
1/4 CLINTON
3/1 TRUMP
I got on at 10/1 ish and also at lower odds which saved me a lot of money.
Remain was something rediculous like 1.05 if I remember correctly.
COULD OF? COULD OF????
It is Could have!0 -
A large part of me hopes it's totally wrong. I think they are far more arrogant than the network executives they describe in their rant on their home page.williamglenn said:
Is that really what they're doing? That's ridiculous.RobD said:
Based on 0 votes counted. I read their website, and I think they are making a false equivalence between their approach (counting people and noting demographics) and exit polls (where you bloody ask someone how they voted!).tyson said:Votecastr newsfeed is giving Clinton a 4% lead on a 40% votecount in Iowa, about 3.5% in Ohio on 30% votecount and 3.5% in FA.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E0 -
Oh, I don't know. The most recent amendment only took 202 years to gain the necessary approval after its introduction.Nigelb said:
Changing the constitution is more than difficult - it's well nigh impossible these days.david_herdson said:
Because changing the constitution is hard and the reform wouldn't worth the political capital that would need to be spent.logical_song said:
Why is a technologically advanced country like the US still using an electoral college voting system designed for the circumstances of over 200 years ago.Sunil_Prasannan said:
2011 referendum:Jobabob said:
Agree. Time for an AV thread.FrancisUrquhart said:
Discussion of electoral systems, AV vs PR^2.....throws hand grenade and runs for the door...Jobabob said:
I kind of sympathise with that view – but what else would we post on election day itself?FrancisUrquhart said:In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
No 2 AV 68%
Yes to AV 32%
They should count the Presidential votes for the country as a whole, using AV of course.
No more swing states, except for Congress.
I imagine that the swing states like their status - it means they get lots of attention from candidates and presidents alike. You only need 13 states to oppose and you have a blocking majority.0 -
Still very early, Dems are more likely to vote in the evening as well.williamglenn said:
Look at Penn - http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/PAAndrew said:You can get at the votecastr live data:
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/FL
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No idea how good their data or analysis is yet, but the live production is dreadfulLucian_Fletcher said:Have to say with the number of people in their 'newsroom' you would think they could keep going with the chat, rather than breaking off for longer breaks than they spend on air.
Lame effort, to be honest.0 -
Nah, someone reached out to my cousin (who I won't name because it would raise eyebrows) and offered one. I'm just aside beneficiary of the justification used...Lucian_Fletcher said:
You've been offered it on the street?Charles said:O/T should I take up the Irish passport I've just been offered?
I'm a Unionist in NI yet I will probably/almost certainly take advantage of residency/marriage etc rights to an EU passport when UK leaves. In my defence, I voted Remain.0 -
Give me strength. Even intelliigent people taking leave of their senses. This is the UK we're talking about. We will not "descend into anarchy".rcs1000 said:
In case the UK descends into post-Brexit anarchy...HurstLlama said:0 -
Trump drifting on Betfair - quite substantially.MaxPB said:
Still very early, Dems are more likely to vote in the evening as well.williamglenn said:
Look at Penn - http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/PAAndrew said:You can get at the votecastr live data:
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/FL
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@TomChivers: @IanDunt we can scrawl entertaining screeds about the internal politics of the fall-out shelter with charcoal on bits of irradiated barkDadge said:Give me strength. Even intelliigent people taking leave of their senses. This is the UK we're talking about. We will not "descend into anarchy".
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Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
Anarchy, no. Dysfunctional constitutional paralysis? Looks likely...Dadge said:
Give me strength. Even intelliigent people taking leave of their senses. This is the UK we're talking about. We will not "descend into anarchy".rcs1000 said:
In case the UK descends into post-Brexit anarchy...HurstLlama said:0 -
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
was that because he knew he was having trouble getting his EV vote out, so pretended he was actively discouraging them in order to fool the pundits?MaxPB said:.
It could be, an article on 538 mentioned that Trump was specifically telling his supporters to wait until election day to vote. This might be related.DoubleCarpet said:Do we think the high turnout is people who rarely vote coming out for Trump?
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There are nine Clinton counties across the US. Pretty sure there aren't any Trump ones (yet).SandyRentool said:
Clinton County goes 56% Trump! I thought Americans didn't do irony?williamglenn said:
Look at Penn - http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/PAAndrew said:You can get at the votecastr live data:
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/FL
!!!0 -
3.9% votedRobD said:
OK, that can't be right!williamglenn said:
Look at Penn - http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/PAAndrew said:You can get at the votecastr live data:
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/FL
!!!0 -
Mirroring "Leave" on the dayweejonnie said:
Trump drifting on Betfair - quite substantially.MaxPB said:
Still very early, Dems are more likely to vote in the evening as well.williamglenn said:
Look at Penn - http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/PAAndrew said:You can get at the votecastr live data:
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/FL
!!!
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There were reports of high turnouts for early and postal voting in FL.weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
Could have done. As many people voted in EV as did in the 2004 election apparently.RobD said:
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.RobD said:
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home0
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Only works with folkies, but there are people who still don't talk to me since I said I preferred Steel Eye Span to Fairport Convention.TheScreamingEagles said:If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
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This sounds a bit akin to Nate Cohn's analysis of North Carolina over the past couple of weeks, which was based on polling data readjusted according to the demographics of early voting. And which was effectively dumped in the bin yesterday when a new poll was released. It's going to depend on the polling data being accurate. If the polling data were limited to people with landlines doesn't that introduce all kinds of problems?Sandpit said:
They are very keen to point out it isn't an exit poll.AndyJS said:
Thanks. I think it's technically illegal for them to do this.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's a new online thing that's supposed to track ballots as actually cast in a few swing states. Technical problems so far on the key areas...AndyJS said:
What's Votecastr? Never heard of it until now.Andrew said:Votecastr has an identical Trump figure to 538: both 43.6%. The difference is 538 has Clinton 47.7%, VC has 46.3%.
A few more Clinton voters going for Stein then predicted?
All they appear to be doing is counting blacks, whites, women, men, young and old as they vote but without interviewing them today. They did the interviews previously, and think they can call the election based purely on the demographics turning up.0 -
NH widget is exciting http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/NH0
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Winning here!Alistair said:NH widget is exciting http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/NH
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Try saying you prefer Yes without Jon Anderson...TheScreamingEagles said:If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.0 -
Yeah, and it's all based off their own opinion poll taken prior to the election.williamglenn said:
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.RobD said:
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
The other problem is that votecastr might also put people off voting if it looks like a done deal -- exit polls carry a similar risk but are more accurate and not available all day.williamglenn said:
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.RobD said:
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
Early voting was about three quarters of the entire 2012 turnout.weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
Trump now 5.5
edit - now 5.6
edit now 5.70 -
I see Ladbrokes is now tweeting that the Clinton/Trump odds on polling day are exactly the same as the Leave/Remain odds daytime June 23rd.
However, whilst there are clearly common undercurrents behind irrational Brexit and irrational Trump, there is no law of history that makes events ever repeat themselves so precisely.0 -
I don't think the internet has got to NH yet!Alistair said:NH widget is exciting http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/NH
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Bottom right corner should just say "Toss".....Alistair said:NH widget is exciting http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/NH
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Yep we pass over minor errors of grammar and spelling but this particular and unfortunately ever more evident horror story makes me want to scream! Personally I blame mobiles.TheScreamingEagles said:
That has to be the most shocking post in the history of PBMP_SE said:
Could of got 15/1 for Leave on the evening of the referendum.Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: BREXIT odds on morning of June 23:
1/4 REMAIN
3/1 LEAVE
Current #ElectionDay odds:
1/4 CLINTON
3/1 TRUMP
I got on at 10/1 ish and also at lower odds which saved me a lot of money.
Remain was something rediculous like 1.05 if I remember correctly.
COULD OF? COULD OF????
It is Could have!0 -
I am already on him at 6.5 from long ago. If he goes beyond 8 I might have another nibble.TGOHF said:
Mirroring "Leave" on the dayweejonnie said:
Trump drifting on Betfair - quite substantially.MaxPB said:
Still very early, Dems are more likely to vote in the evening as well.williamglenn said:
Look at Penn - http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/PAAndrew said:You can get at the votecastr live data:
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/FL
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At least exit polls can't skew a vote in the same state.DecrepitJohnL said:
The other problem is that votecastr might also put people off voting if it looks like a done deal -- exit polls carry a similar risk but are more accurate and not available all day.williamglenn said:
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.RobD said:
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:0 -
tyson said:
It perked me up from a snooze...but I'll try and get back to it....Jobabob said:
Sweet FA??tyson said:Votecastr newsfeed is giving Clinton a 4% lead on a 40% votecount in Iowa, about 3.5% in Ohio on 30% votecount and 3.5% in FA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E
The presenter though is really fit, so that helps
I just wondered what state FA was. They say there's nothing there ;-)0 -
Chuck votecastr in the bin in my opinion.0
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Well they do not appear to be shifting a penny on the betting markets...so that tells us what people think about them....DecrepitJohnL said:
The other problem is that votecastr might also put people off voting if it looks like a done deal -- exit polls carry a similar risk but are more accurate and not available all day.williamglenn said:
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.RobD said:
Early voting/postal ballots?weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:
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WikiLeaks @wikileaks 5h5 hours ago
Bill Clinton in private speech: UK's Jeremy Corbyn is a "guy off the street... the maddest person in the room" https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/49501 …0 -
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?Alistair said:Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
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Can't you find some common ground on early-period Pentangle?Recidivist said:
Only works with folkies, but there are people who still don't talk to me since I said I preferred Steel Eye Span to Fairport Convention.TheScreamingEagles said:If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.0 -
Which was the second highest number of all time after 2008. Note that they measure turnout as a %age of Voting Age Population, rather than as the number of registered voters as in the UK.Chris said:
Early voting was about three quarters of the entire 2012 turnout.weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections
Year VAP ('000s) Turnout ('000s) TO%
1980 163,945 86,497 52.8%
1984 173,995 92,655 53.3%
1988 181,956 91,587 50.3%
1992 189,493 104,600 55.2%
1996 196,789 96,390 49.0%
2000 209,787 105,594 50.3%
2004 219,553 122,349 55.7%
2008 229,945 131,407 57.1%
2012 235,248 129,235 54.9%0 -
Trumpster 5.7 now
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.0 -
It's information that's probably rather hard to make practical use of. The campaigns and big network election desks have this sort of data and plenty of experience in handling/interpreting it, but very few others do.tyson said:
Well they do not appear to be shifting a penny on the betting markets...so that tells us what people think about them....0 -
er why? I mean why is he drifting, not why you would rebackTheScreamingEagles said:Trumpster 5.7 now
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.0 -
Bad intel is worse than no intelPulpstar said:Chuck votecastr in the bin in my opinion.
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I can imagine old Corbyn being impressed that Bill Clinton even knows he is....he's a dozy old twat. Sorry for my terrible ageism...TGOHF said:WikiLeaks @wikileaks 5h5 hours ago
Bill Clinton in private speech: UK's Jeremy Corbyn is a "guy off the street... the maddest person in the room" https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/49501 …0 -
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DT hit 5.9 momentarily.
Now 5.8.0 -
And back to the annoying clueless British woman on Vice....0
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Think the duopoly is more entrenched in the US such that the two Independent Senators have to Caucus with the Dems or they would get nothing done.IanB2 said:
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?Alistair said:Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
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Superstition.TheWhiteRabbit said:
er why?TheScreamingEagles said:Trumpster 5.7 now
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.0 -
FA – is the interesting one. Voting takes place in America's 51st state.Chris said:0 -
I reckon some of the GOTV is as expected/better than expected for HillaryTheWhiteRabbit said:
er why? I mean why is he drifting, not why you would rebackTheScreamingEagles said:Trumpster 5.7 now
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.0 -
I think it might be worth waiting some more......TheScreamingEagles said:Trumpster 5.7 now
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.
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That is ok, we get very used to the disdain that lefties have for old people.tyson said:
I can imagine old Corbyn being impressed that Bill Clinton even knows he is....he's a dozy old twat. Sorry for my terrible ageism...TGOHF said:WikiLeaks @wikileaks 5h5 hours ago
Bill Clinton in private speech: UK's Jeremy Corbyn is a "guy off the street... the maddest person in the room" https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/49501 …
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Anyway, my way to kill a bit of time before the excitement starts - found the extended version of "Almost Famous" on BluRay in the local charity shop for a quid. Hopefully featuring even more Kate Hudson.....0
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That three quarters was just for Florida, though.Sandpit said:
Which was the second highest number of all time after 2008. Note that they measure turnout as a %age of Voting Age Population, rather than as the number of registered voters as in the UK.Chris said:
Early voting was about three quarters of the entire 2012 turnout.weejonnie said:
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.peter_from_putney said:
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections
Year VAP ('000s) Turnout ('000s) TO%
1980 163,945 86,497 52.8%
1984 173,995 92,655 53.3%
1988 181,956 91,587 50.3%
1992 189,493 104,600 55.2%
1996 196,789 96,390 49.0%
2000 209,787 105,594 50.3%
2004 219,553 122,349 55.7%
2008 229,945 131,407 57.1%
2012 235,248 129,235 54.9%0 -
Instead they do caucus with the Dems... and still get nothing doneToryJim said:
Think the duopoly is more entrenched in the US such that the two Independent Senators have to Caucus with the Dems or they would get nothing done.IanB2 said:
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?Alistair said:Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
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Jazz folk? It isn't so much surprising that it isn't very good, but that it is done at all.MarqueeMark said:
Can't you find some common ground on early-period Pentangle?Recidivist said:
Only works with folkies, but there are people who still don't talk to me since I said I preferred Steel Eye Span to Fairport Convention.TheScreamingEagles said:If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9gCN9-Jnfg
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Hmmm.....the votecastr tracksuit wearing guy says they can't do proper comparisons of performance 2012 vs 2016 with their data / model....0
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I'm pretty sure that was JackW was factoring in his model...a 3-4% national poll lead with a couple of add ons for GOTV.... and with a 5-6% national poll lead then Ohio comes in, just...TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon some of the GOTV is as expected/better than expected for HillaryTheWhiteRabbit said:
er why? I mean why is he drifting, not why you would rebackTheScreamingEagles said:Trumpster 5.7 now
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.
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Donald taking a Trip to Trumpton: sliding out towards 6...0
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Fine, but that doesn't really explain things. The question is about voters not politicians. And, anyway, one might just as well ask what Lucas/Farron/Carswell or the SNP, PC or Sinn Fein actually get done.ToryJim said:
Think the duopoly is more entrenched in the US such that the two Independent Senators have to Caucus with the Dems or they would get nothing done.IanB2 said:
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?Alistair said:Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
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Pretty sure Romney was not anywhere near that high with non-college.619 said:
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Yeah time to file that website in the bin.FrancisUrquhart said:Hmmm.....the votecastr tracksuit wearing guy says they can't do proper comparisons of performance 2012 vs 2016 with their data / model....
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Does anyone know why the votecastr percentage of expected votes observed number in PA has gone down?0
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And now they can't even bring up the data they want to show....it going really well....got to be time to go back to the webcam footage of the street soon.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah time to fill that website in the bin.FrancisUrquhart said:Hmmm.....the votecastr tracksuit wearing guy says they can't do proper comparisons of performance 2012 vs 2016 with their data / model....
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He looks rather like that character in Star Trek: Deep Space Nine, doesn't he?619 said:0 -
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.0
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That's exactly what we do want from them. Idiots.FrancisUrquhart said:Hmmm.....the votecastr tracksuit wearing guy says they can't do proper comparisons of performance 2012 vs 2016 with their data / model....
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I'd be VERY wary of laying Trump now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah time to file that website in the bin.FrancisUrquhart said:Hmmm.....the votecastr tracksuit wearing guy says they can't do proper comparisons of performance 2012 vs 2016 with their data / model....
I rebacked the £50 at a bit of potential profit that I laid earlier, quite alot of tail risk on the Trumpster0 -
The States wont like that.braeside02 said:Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
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Could be read 2 ways...although I think I know what you mean!tyson said:
I can imagine old Corbyn being impressed that Bill Clinton even knows he is....he's a dozy old twat. Sorry for my terrible ageism...TGOHF said:WikiLeaks @wikileaks 5h5 hours ago
Bill Clinton in private speech: UK's Jeremy Corbyn is a "guy off the street... the maddest person in the room" https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/49501 …0 -
Too early to say Votecastr is "cannon fodder" "a pile of garbage" or "to be chucked in the bin" etc etc.
Every said the same about the famous 2010 UK exit poll.
It was bang on.
It's an interesting experiment. I say give it a chance.0 -
Has a statto ever allocated the no of ECV for each state by % of votes cast (ie split EC) and worked out if there would have been a different winner in previous elections ?braeside02 said:Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
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Maybe 2000 was right on that model though. Republicans in safe states didn't turn out, but would have done if their vote had been important.braeside02 said:Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
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The presentation is horrible though....Jobabob said:Too early to say Votecastr is "cannon fodder" "a pile of garbage" or "to be chucked in the bin" etc etc.
Every said the same about the famous 2010 UK exit poll.
It was bang on.
It's an interesting experiment. I say give it a chance.0 -
Given that the collective PB decision is that votecastr is bollocks, what will we be watching later - UK Sky News or one of the US networks?0
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It probably stems from Article 5 of the consitution about each state being equally represented.braeside02 said:Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
NB - I do think they allocate ECV based on 2 senators + districts/ counties in each state - which have to be about the same size, (650,000 or so) so there is a pretty good correlation.0 -
Agree. Try the graphics – they are somewhat nicer.FrancisUrquhart said:
The presentation is horrible though....Jobabob said:Too early to say Votecastr is "cannon fodder" "a pile of garbage" or "to be chucked in the bin" etc etc.
Every said the same about the famous 2010 UK exit poll.
It was bang on.
It's an interesting experiment. I say give it a chance.
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/XX
XX = two letter state code (FL, NH etc etc)0 -
Sky News.Sandpit said:Given that the collective PB decision is that votecastr is bollocks, what will we be watching later - UK Sky News or one of the US networks?
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I'm going to switch off any channel that says "BREAKING NEWS ------ SAFE STATE CALLED FOR ABSOLUTELY PREDICTABLE CANDIDATE BASED ON NO ACTUAL VOTES"Sandpit said:Given that the collective PB decision is that votecastr is bollocks, what will we be watching later - UK Sky News or one of the US networks?
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It is what it is. If the Americans want to keep the idea of state-by-state voting and the delay between election and inauguration then ECVs really do not add much more friction. More significant problems surround voter suppression, gerrymandering, and right down to the basics like having enough polling stations to avoid queues that would disgrace a newly democratised third world country several decades back.braeside02 said:Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
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Incidentally, when the results start coming in, this page by Ian Warren with an interactive map of the 2012 results by county (and also the Hispanic and other demographic data) might be very useful:
http://election-data.co.uk/us-election-2016
Note that you have to switch on the 'Results by county' visible layer on the map, otherwise you just get the state result when you click on the county.0 -
Her genes were definitely inherited from her mother, rather than her father!williamglenn said:0 -
The graphics may be nice, but is the underlying data actually any good? They are just counting people going in/out of some polling places, and weighting according to a poll they did previously. It's not even a proper exit poll.Jobabob said:
Agree. Try the graphics – they are somewhat nicer.FrancisUrquhart said:
The presentation is horrible though....Jobabob said:Too early to say Votecastr is "cannon fodder" "a pile of garbage" or "to be chucked in the bin" etc etc.
Every said the same about the famous 2010 UK exit poll.
It was bang on.
It's an interesting experiment. I say give it a chance.
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/XX
XX = two letter state code (FL, NH etc etc)0 -
Oh come on, you KNOW it'll happen for Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, California, Wyoming etcTheWhiteRabbit said:
I'm going to switch off any channel that says "BREAKING NEWS ------ SAFE STATE CALLED FOR ABSOLUTELY PREDICTABLE CANDIDATE BASED ON NO ACTUAL VOTES"Sandpit said:Given that the collective PB decision is that votecastr is bollocks, what will we be watching later - UK Sky News or one of the US networks?
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