Will go down a storm with our Leaver friends on here.
The legality of it doesn't fuss me much one way or another, it's the inequality of it. Of course Parliament will at some point have to repeal the 1972 Act. Notifying the EU that we intend to do so, however, is not the same as doing it. Heath signed a commitment to join the EU in January 1972. Parliament didn't agree until October of that year. Why was he allowed to do that, given that joining required Parliament to pass the Act?
Will go down a storm with our Leaver friends on here.
The legality of it doesn't fuss me much one way or another, it's the inequality of it. Of course Parliament will at some point have to repeal the 1972 Act. Notifying the EU that we intend to do so, however, is not the same as doing it. Heath signed a commitment to join the EU in January 1972. Parliament didn't agree until October of that year. Why was he allowed to do that, given that joining required Parliament to pass the Act?
Because Heath's commitment was reversible by Parliament, Article 50 isn't. That's my understanding.
Joe @JoeThebabe2015 3m3 minutes ago The polling place was a buzz by the massive turn out in our small town. One person said he hasn't voted since Reagan
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
It was a turnout anecdote during the Brexit vote - a friend reporting a massive turnout while working as a polling clerk in Cumbria - that convinced me Remain were doomed.
If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
Benedick @BenedickUSA 1h1 hour ago Suburban Pittsburgh, PA: Elderly veteran Poll volunteer said early turnout like nothing he's ever seen.
When you see highly immobile elderly people who look like they could die at any moment dragging themselves to the polling station you know turnout will be high.
Has there ever been an election where both candidates were so universally disliked?
Not universally disliked - both are liked by their core supporters. Actually quite a few of those who dislike both might not be swing voters and moderates but Sanderistas or Ted Cruz 'true conservative' types.
This morning there was an article on the comment section of the Telegraph website from some Yank bloke explaining why he would be voting for Trump. He didn't sound deranged, thick or anything else but he did present a coherent case for his position. I just went to look for it to post a link and see that it has been taken down.
I am not going to try and paraphrase an article read once, but suffice it to say the arguments he put forward were not about personalities but about problems in US society and, from my very limited knowledge of Americans, I would guess they would resonate with a very large number, if not a majority of them.
The Septics have really got themselves into a mess when the presidential election is between two awful people and is likely to be decided on identity politics rather than who the voters may think has the better idea of tackling the USA's very real problems.
This identity politics has been slowly taking hold over here too (though not to such a degree, yet) and I firmly believe it should be stamped out before it becomes too corrosive to the body politic.
Mr. Bob, also, sometimes anecdotes can be better than polling (referendum, the General Election).
How do you judge that an anecdote is "better".
If I tell you an anecdote (a true one) about a Floridian girl who works in my office who was yesterday telling anyone who'd listen that she is registered, confirmed Republican who is voting for Hillary as a Dem one-off because she loathes Trumpton, then Hillary goes on to win FL, does that make my anecdote "better" than another true anecdote to the reverse effect?
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
I kind of sympathise with that view – but what else would we post on election day itself?
Objection! Anecdotes are the bread and butter of PB. We would starve without them.
I agree. The numerous reports showing vast numbers voting in different places and time zones are all grist to PBers election day, that they can ponder and chew over.
Jeez.....Odds have swung out by 5 clicks for Dem whilst I away on Betfair. That was easy....just pocketed a hundred and twenty notes for doing nothing......I wish I'd ordered a nicer bottle of wine at lunch now
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
Every GE my facebook feed is full of "polling stations feel busier than normal". I think its people comparing to local and euro elections.
Well, also us 'umans are crap at assessing such things and weighting against factors such as type of election, time they attended the polling station each time etc etc etc
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
Every GE my facebook feed is full of "polling stations feel busier than normal". I think its people comparing to local and euro elections.
Well, also us 'umans are crap at assessing such things and weighting against factors such as type of election, time they attended the polling station each time etc etc etc
Do we think the high turnout is people who rarely vote coming out for Trump?
Are we sure long lines is indicative of high turnout or just reduced polling locations? If the former I suspect that is part of it but possibly offset by rare voters rowing behind Hillary to stop him. With Clinton's superior GOTV she might even tease out an edge with this demographic
I like a lot of Vice content, but so far this election war room thing is bloody unwatchable....and why go "live" if you only have 5 minutes of content before having to go to 30 mins of webcam footage of the street outside?
In case it has not yet been reported here, Dixville Notch went Clinton by 4 votes to 2.
Trump won the midnight voting overall though !
Sanders did well too. There may be quite a few write-ins for Sanders today. Allegedly Roger Stone gets a big smile on his face whenever that's mentioned.
From a very old memory, perjury is committed when a person, on oath, makes a statement material to a judicial enquiry, that they know to be false or do not believe to be true.
Is the swearing out of a search warrant a judicial enquiry? I would say not, so it probably wasn't perjury. However, there are various other criminal offences it could fall under and it would certainly be a disciplinary offence under Police Regulations and one worthy of dismissal from the force.
Anyone want to bet on how many officers will be sacked or prosecuted over their conduct in this ghastly scandal? I would bet on none.
If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
My Dad always maintained that the Dave Clark Five were better than the Beatles.
I'm thinking as below, that Votecastr is a piece of crap
In other words- it is giving data you don't like.
What's the time in the USA now: 10.00? Another 10 hours to go, when Dems rarely vote in the morning.
Also, I think it's LA times esque in its methodology and I'm generally wary of exit polls like that.
Lots of comments about exit polls being very accurate - whether this applies to Votecastr is not yet proven. I understand Colorado oting based on 60% of expected turnout.
The betting markets aren't moving even one tiny little bit and there's virtually nothing of anecdotal interest coming our way from the States - it has all become a little 'ow you say ..... boring. I think I'll give it a miss for a few hours.
Do we think the high turnout is people who rarely vote coming out for Trump?
The polling evidence suggests to me that in states with early voting Election Day voters should be more Trumpy. I think from a demographic standpoint that makes complete sense. If there is a good turnout, particularly rural and suburban, then that is good for Trump because he needs these voters to overcome Clinton's leads in early voting.
When will the first state-wide results be declared (UK time)?
Results - probably not for many hours in the early morning. The newscasters will start calling states at 12.00 (possibly 11.00 if Kentucky/ Indiana are massive Trump wins but some polling stations close at 12.00 in those states) http://www.270towin.com/closing.php
That Votecastr you tubelink is really quite useful and informative....I've got an AD telling me why Cardio makes you fat. I am going to stop my three mile uphill everyday run and eat doughnuts and see if that gives me that scuplted six pack...
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
I kind of sympathise with that view – but what else would we post on election day itself?
Discussion of electoral systems, AV vs PR^2.....throws hand grenade and runs for the door...
Agree. Time for an AV thread.
2011 referendum:
No 2 AV 68% Yes to AV 32%
Why is a technologically advanced country like the US still using an electoral college voting system designed for the circumstances of over 200 years ago. They should count the Presidential votes for the country as a whole, using AV of course. No more swing states, except for Congress.
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
I kind of sympathise with that view – but what else would we post on election day itself?
Discussion of electoral systems, AV vs PR^2.....throws hand grenade and runs for the door...
Agree. Time for an AV thread.
2011 referendum:
No 2 AV 68% Yes to AV 32%
Why is a technologically advanced country like the US still using an electoral college voting system designed for the circumstances of over 200 years ago. They should count the Presidential votes for the country as a whole, using AV of course. No more swing states, except for Congress.
When will the first state-wide results be declared (UK time)?
Results - probably not for many hours in the early morning. The newscasters will start calling states at 12.00 (possibly 11.00 if Kentucky/ Indiana are massive Trump wins but some polling stations close at 12.00 in those states) http://www.270towin.com/closing.php
Comments
Was he born in Washington (Tyne & Wear), Toronto (Co Durham), Quebec (Co Durham), New York (Tyne & Wear) or No Place (Co durham)?
https://twitter.com/lawvaughan/status/795947802056605696
And Theresa May who put it in the Lord Chief Justice's lunch box.
Joe @JoeThebabe2015 3m3 minutes ago
The polling place was a buzz by the massive turn out in our small town. One person said he hasn't voted since Reagan
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
Opinion polls had Clinton +4 on 538
I am not going to try and paraphrase an article read once, but suffice it to say the arguments he put forward were not about personalities but about problems in US society and, from my very limited knowledge of Americans, I would guess they would resonate with a very large number, if not a majority of them.
The Septics have really got themselves into a mess when the presidential election is between two awful people and is likely to be decided on identity politics rather than who the voters may think has the better idea of tackling the USA's very real problems.
This identity politics has been slowly taking hold over here too (though not to such a degree, yet) and I firmly believe it should be stamped out before it becomes too corrosive to the body politic.
How do you judge that an anecdote is "better".
If I tell you an anecdote (a true one) about a Floridian girl who works in my office who was yesterday telling anyone who'd listen that she is registered, confirmed Republican who is voting for Hillary as a Dem one-off because she loathes Trumpton, then Hillary goes on to win FL, does that make my anecdote "better" than another true anecdote to the reverse effect?
271 WITHOUT Florida or Nevada !!
Polling has not been spot on at the last two major tests in the UK.
Trump wins by 1.12%
Also, I think it's LA times esque in its methodology and I'm generally wary of exit polls like that.
If you trust electionr then you should probably lump on Hillary (In CO)
Is the swearing out of a search warrant a judicial enquiry? I would say not, so it probably wasn't perjury. However, there are various other criminal offences it could fall under and it would certainly be a disciplinary offence under Police Regulations and one worthy of dismissal from the force.
Anyone want to bet on how many officers will be sacked or prosecuted over their conduct in this ghastly scandal? I would bet on none.
I think I'll give it a miss for a few hours.
What does that mean when put thru the Crosby or ARSE machines?
No 2 AV 68%
Yes to AV 32%
They should count the Presidential votes for the country as a whole, using AV of course.
No more swing states, except for Congress.
Hmmm.
Clinton 51 .. Trump 44
https://www.scribd.com/document/330243723/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-1031-11-6