Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Trump does win it will make a mockery of the “rule” that th

12346»

Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    619 said:

    RobD said:

    619 said:

    twitter.com/Fishbooom/status/796003756269780992

    Much like Clinton cancelled her planned (and super obnoxious) firework display?
    Bit different. There is still a party planned! And Clinton probably didn't want to look like she was celebrating early.

    And why obnoxious? She isn't allowed to celebrate being president?
    No. Public service is a duty, not something to glorify.
    Oh god she's allowed to celebrate a winning campaign. Sheesh.
    Like I said, a party is fine, especially for the supporters/activists/donors. A huge firework display is on a totally different level.
    Why? What's the difference between a concert and fireworks. Clinton gets critised for things Trump would get a free pass on. Everyone likes fireworks.
    It just seems over the top, perhaps my reserved Britishness coming through.

    And yes, but I am sure Trump supporters wouldn't have enjoyed that particular firework display!
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Shock horror - something from NH on votecastr http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/NH
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969
    Too excited to sleep, TSE?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sorry for breaking with the topic but has everyone seen the latest from the Supreme Court? The judgement will follow 'probably in the New Year'.

    How is that remotely acceptable?

    Ooh, can still lay Art 50 being declared in 2016 at 95.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125385487
    www.savingstream.com Pays 12% though.
    Per year. 5% in a couple of months is surely a better bet, or have I missed something?
    When you lay at 95 with a market to expire in about 2 months, that is around 6% or so, no ?

    7-8% perhaps here IRR
    Okay my maths wasn't quite right, and it was only a tenner. Free money's still free money though, right?
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    619 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Big swing in Hillsborough county apparently.

    Don't count your Clinton chickens just yet................................

    That's Tampa isn't it.
    I think it is one of the most important counties in the whole of the USA to determine the actual winner.
    Ah I see it. Need to see if that's more or less than last time of course. And NPA's seem to be Hispanic, so hard to say exactly how that will go for the result...
    Only a fifth of NPAs are Hispanic, four fifths are not.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.

    You seem very down on her

    Are you on 0-1%?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.

    You seem very down on her

    Are you on 0-1%?
    For all of £7.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,285

    Pulpstar said:

    Big swing in Hillsborough county apparently.

    Don't count your Clinton chickens just yet................................

    Hillsborough? Is there a Hallam too? :lol:
    Would you believe there's a new York!
    A few months back, I travelled by train through Boston... on my way to Skegness!!!
    Boston is one of those places where you have to concede that the Americans have brought about some improvements. York, probably (though arguable, I guess). Venice, Florida (or Los Angeles) and Ventnor, New Jersey, not so much.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    Sorry for breaking with the topic but has everyone seen the latest from the Supreme Court? The judgement will follow 'probably in the New Year'.

    How is that remotely acceptable?

    Ooh, can still lay Art 50 being declared in 2016 at 95.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125385487
    www.savingstream.com Pays 12% though.
    Per year. 5% in a couple of months is surely a better bet, or have I missed something?
    When you lay at 95 with a market to expire in about 2 months, that is around 6% or so, no ?

    7-8% perhaps here IRR
    Okay my maths wasn't quite right, and it was only a tenner. Free money's still free money though, right?
    Yep, you have default (And tax) with bridging loans so it might even be a superior risk adjusted rate of return.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.

    You seem very down on her

    Are you on 0-1%?
    For all of £7.
    Better than a kick in the teeth
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,285
    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
    Polling days are generally like that.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822
    Aren't you supposed to be tucked up in bed?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited November 2016
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
    Polling days are generally like that.
    Not really, there'll be plenty more Clintons, Romneys, Kennedies*, Bushes, Rubios, Cruzes - but nothing will come along like Trump for many many years.

    * Yes there is another one in the house currently. I fancy him to challenge in 2024 or so.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Aren't you supposed to be tucked up in bed?
    I forget to put my phone on silent and someone texted me that.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    619 said:

    RobD said:

    619 said:

    twitter.com/Fishbooom/status/796003756269780992

    Much like Clinton cancelled her planned (and super obnoxious) firework display?
    Bit different. There is still a party planned! And Clinton probably didn't want to look like she was celebrating early.

    And why obnoxious? She isn't allowed to celebrate being president?
    No. Public service is a duty, not something to glorify.
    Oh god she's allowed to celebrate a winning campaign. Sheesh.
    Like I said, a party is fine, especially for the supporters/activists/donors. A huge firework display is on a totally different level.
    Why? What's the difference between a concert and fireworks. Clinton gets critised for things Trump would get a free pass on. Everyone likes fireworks.
    It just seems over the top, perhaps my reserved Britishness coming through.

    And yes, but I am sure Trump supporters wouldn't have enjoyed that particular firework display!
    Ah but Americans are ott.

    More from votercrap.


    Joel Acevedo – ‏@joelacevedo

    @SwanieH @RalstonReports @votecastr Yeah. 6.5M early votes in Florida.
    DEM 2.593.090
    GOP 2.502.988
    NPA 1.415.603
    Where are the other 1.5M?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.

    Yes, they have her over 1% in Nevada. She is not on the ballot in Nevada
  • Options
    Geek's Guide to Election (from Wang at Princeton):

    http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/08/geeks-guide-to-the-election-2016/
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,285
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
    Polling days are generally like that.
    Not really, there'll be plenty more Clintons, Romneys, Kennedies, Bushes, Rubios, Cruzes - but nothing will come along like Trump for many many years.
    We can always hope.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
    Or it will be a boot stamping on a human face for ever.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.

    You seem very down on her

    Are you on 0-1%?
    I am on for £60.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited November 2016
    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming form.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pADHLsECWxY
  • Options
    RobD said:

    Too excited to sleep, TSE?

    [Bill Paxton voice] I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!
  • Options
    Wang:

    "Slow counting: Virginia is slow-counting in a way that makes Republican candidates appear
    stronger than their eventual finish. Ignore early counts."

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,285
    Well global stock markets have perked up this last hour or two; people somewhere are expecting some good news.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
    There will always be 2020 after Clinton has sold out the American people.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Charles said:

    619 said:

    RobD said:

    619 said:

    twitter.com/Fishbooom/status/796003756269780992

    Much like Clinton cancelled her planned (and super obnoxious) firework display?
    Bit different. There is still a party planned! And Clinton probably didn't want to look like she was celebrating early.

    And why obnoxious? She isn't allowed to celebrate being president?
    No. Public service is a duty, not something to glorify.
    Oh god she's allowed to celebrate a winning campaign. Sheesh.
    Like I said, a party is fine, especially for the supporters/activists/donors. A huge firework display is on a totally different level.
    Why? What's the difference between a concert and fireworks. Clinton gets critised for things Trump would get a free pass on. Everyone likes fireworks.
    It just seems over the top, perhaps my reserved Britishness coming through.

    And yes, but I am sure Trump supporters wouldn't have enjoyed that particular firework display!
    Ah but Americans are ott.

    More from votercrap.


    Joel Acevedo – ‏@joelacevedo

    @SwanieH @RalstonReports @votecastr Yeah. 6.5M early votes in Florida.
    DEM 2.593.090
    GOP 2.502.988
    NPA 1.415.603
    Where are the other 1.5M?
    Isn't that their prior party affiliation not how they've voted? 2.6+2.5+1.4 = 6.5
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Wang:

    "Slow counting: Virginia is slow-counting in a way that makes Republican candidates appear
    stronger than their eventual finish. Ignore early counts."

    Yes, Virginia is great for ont he night betting because the rural counties all come in then North VA reports, and the GOP candidate loses.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,969

    Wang:

    "Slow counting: Virginia is slow-counting in a way that makes Republican candidates appear
    stronger than their eventual finish. Ignore early counts."

    That makes it sound like they are intentionally doing it, which I would find hard to believe?
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Votecastr.us has Stein above 1%

    fsake.

    Priceless! I'll be interested to see how many voters nationally write in Sanders, and whether he beats Stein. In 2012 she got 0.36%.
  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    To be honest it is now or never for a candidate like Trump.
    Polling days are generally like that.
    Not really, there'll be plenty more Clintons, Romneys, Kennedies, Bushes, Rubios, Cruzes - but nothing will come along like Trump for many many years.
    We can always hope.
    Except Trump 2020?
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    IanB2 said:

    Well global stock markets have perked up this last hour or two; people somewhere are expecting some good news.

    With Brexit...I was a convinced that there was some private polling going on that was influencing the markets...then as the night unfolded it became clear that people were clueless/ there is no magic polling/

    So the stock markets are reacting because they hope Clinton is going to win/ a kind of reverse Plato
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Bill Mitchell
    So far, Pinellas County FL, which has slightly more Dems than Reps, has Reps ahead in voting by 8000.

    https://t.co/n82HkVbBKu
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,285
    New thread
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,822

    Wang:

    "Slow counting: Virginia is slow-counting in a way that makes Republican candidates appear
    stronger than their eventual finish. Ignore early counts."

    Sounds far fetched to me...
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.

    No, the US is a federal system. The electoral college protects the influence of smaller more rural states. Without it elections would just be fought in the big cities in states like CA, TX, FL, NY etc while the rest of the country was left to rot.
    As opposed to all the time the candidates spent in South Dakota this time round?
    If the South Dakota voters weren't impressed by the Republican candidate as shown by internal polling then the candidates would be there in a shot to woo their votes, after all they have both been to NH.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Love this

    Adele Morse
    I wish my mother had named me Vermin Supreme. https://t.co/E62oOitLsS
This discussion has been closed.