Votecastr newsfeed is giving Clinton a 4% lead on a 40% votecount in Iowa, about 3.5% in Ohio on 30% votecount and 3.5% in FA.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBwGlqrP1-E
Based on 0 votes counted. I read their website, and I think they are making a false equivalence between their approach (counting people and noting demographics) and exit polls (where you bloody ask someone how they voted!).
Is that really what they're doing? That's ridiculous.
A large part of me hopes it's totally wrong. I think they are far more arrogant than the network executives they describe in their rant on their home page.
In the way voodoo polls are banned on PB, voter turn out anecdotes should also be verboten.
I kind of sympathise with that view – but what else would we post on election day itself?
Discussion of electoral systems, AV vs PR^2.....throws hand grenade and runs for the door...
Agree. Time for an AV thread.
2011 referendum:
No 2 AV 68% Yes to AV 32%
Why is a technologically advanced country like the US still using an electoral college voting system designed for the circumstances of over 200 years ago. They should count the Presidential votes for the country as a whole, using AV of course. No more swing states, except for Congress.
Because changing the constitution is hard and the reform wouldn't worth the political capital that would need to be spent.
I imagine that the swing states like their status - it means they get lots of attention from candidates and presidents alike. You only need 13 states to oppose and you have a blocking majority.
Changing the constitution is more than difficult - it's well nigh impossible these days.
Oh, I don't know. The most recent amendment only took 202 years to gain the necessary approval after its introduction.
Have to say with the number of people in their 'newsroom' you would think they could keep going with the chat, rather than breaking off for longer breaks than they spend on air.
Lame effort, to be honest.
No idea how good their data or analysis is yet, but the live production is dreadful
O/T should I take up the Irish passport I've just been offered?
You've been offered it on the street?
I'm a Unionist in NI yet I will probably/almost certainly take advantage of residency/marriage etc rights to an EU passport when UK leaves. In my defence, I voted Remain.
Nah, someone reached out to my cousin (who I won't name because it would raise eyebrows) and offered one. I'm just aside beneficiary of the justification used...
If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
Only works with folkies, but there are people who still don't talk to me since I said I preferred Steel Eye Span to Fairport Convention.
Votecastr has an identical Trump figure to 538: both 43.6%. The difference is 538 has Clinton 47.7%, VC has 46.3%.
A few more Clinton voters going for Stein then predicted?
What's Votecastr? Never heard of it until now.
It's a new online thing that's supposed to track ballots as actually cast in a few swing states. Technical problems so far on the key areas...
Thanks. I think it's technically illegal for them to do this.
They are very keen to point out it isn't an exit poll.
All they appear to be doing is counting blacks, whites, women, men, young and old as they vote but without interviewing them today. They did the interviews previously, and think they can call the election based purely on the demographics turning up.
This sounds a bit akin to Nate Cohn's analysis of North Carolina over the past couple of weeks, which was based on polling data readjusted according to the demographics of early voting. And which was effectively dumped in the bin yesterday when a new poll was released. It's going to depend on the polling data being accurate. If the polling data were limited to people with landlines doesn't that introduce all kinds of problems?
If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
Thanks - at the moment I assume results reflect democrat early voting advantage.
Is that a known/measured factor?
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.
Early voting/postal ballots?
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.
The other problem is that votecastr might also put people off voting if it looks like a done deal -- exit polls carry a similar risk but are more accurate and not available all day.
I see Ladbrokes is now tweeting that the Clinton/Trump odds on polling day are exactly the same as the Leave/Remain odds daytime June 23rd.
However, whilst there are clearly common undercurrents behind irrational Brexit and irrational Trump, there is no law of history that makes events ever repeat themselves so precisely.
@LadPolitics: BREXIT odds on morning of June 23: 1/4 REMAIN 3/1 LEAVE
Current #ElectionDay odds: 1/4 CLINTON 3/1 TRUMP
Could of got 15/1 for Leave on the evening of the referendum.
I got on at 10/1 ish and also at lower odds which saved me a lot of money.
Remain was something rediculous like 1.05 if I remember correctly.
That has to be the most shocking post in the history of PB
COULD OF? COULD OF????
It is Could have!
Yep we pass over minor errors of grammar and spelling but this particular and unfortunately ever more evident horror story makes me want to scream! Personally I blame mobiles.
Thanks - at the moment I assume results reflect democrat early voting advantage.
Is that a known/measured factor?
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.
Early voting/postal ballots?
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.
The other problem is that votecastr might also put people off voting if it looks like a done deal -- exit polls carry a similar risk but are more accurate and not available all day.
At least exit polls can't skew a vote in the same state.
Thanks - at the moment I assume results reflect democrat early voting advantage.
Is that a known/measured factor?
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.
Early voting/postal ballots?
And Votecastr have just 'observed' the demographics and allocated them proportionately? I won't waste any more time with them.
The other problem is that votecastr might also put people off voting if it looks like a done deal -- exit polls carry a similar risk but are more accurate and not available all day.
Well they do not appear to be shifting a penny on the betting markets...so that tells us what people think about them....
Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?
If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
Only works with folkies, but there are people who still don't talk to me since I said I preferred Steel Eye Span to Fairport Convention.
Can't you find some common ground on early-period Pentangle?
Thanks - at the moment I assume results reflect democrat early voting advantage.
Is that a known/measured factor?
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.
Early voting was about three quarters of the entire 2012 turnout.
Which was the second highest number of all time after 2008. Note that they measure turnout as a %age of Voting Age Population, rather than as the number of registered voters as in the UK.
Well they do not appear to be shifting a penny on the betting markets...so that tells us what people think about them....
It's information that's probably rather hard to make practical use of. The campaigns and big network election desks have this sort of data and plenty of experience in handling/interpreting it, but very few others do.
Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?
Think the duopoly is more entrenched in the US such that the two Independent Senators have to Caucus with the Dems or they would get nothing done.
Anyway, my way to kill a bit of time before the excitement starts - found the extended version of "Almost Famous" on BluRay in the local charity shop for a quid. Hopefully featuring even more Kate Hudson.....
Thanks - at the moment I assume results reflect democrat early voting advantage.
Is that a known/measured factor?
Hardly think that 45% of Florida's voters have voted today by 11.00 am.
Early voting was about three quarters of the entire 2012 turnout.
Which was the second highest number of all time after 2008. Note that they measure turnout as a %age of Voting Age Population, rather than as the number of registered voters as in the UK.
Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?
Think the duopoly is more entrenched in the US such that the two Independent Senators have to Caucus with the Dems or they would get nothing done.
Instead they do caucus with the Dems... and still get nothing done
If you want to discuss something else, at work yesterday we were discussing the controversial views we hold that would get us into trouble/shunned by society.
My confession is what one the prize, can anyone top this
I prefer Genesis with Phil Collins than Genesis with Peter Gabriel.
Only works with folkies, but there are people who still don't talk to me since I said I preferred Steel Eye Span to Fairport Convention.
Can't you find some common ground on early-period Pentangle?
Jazz folk? It isn't so much surprising that it isn't very good, but that it is done at all.
er why? I mean why is he drifting, not why you would reback
I reckon some of the GOTV is as expected/better than expected for Hillary
I'm pretty sure that was JackW was factoring in his model...a 3-4% national poll lead with a couple of add ons for GOTV.... and with a 5-6% national poll lead then Ohio comes in, just...
Shit, the Jill Stein figure is stubbornly over 1% on all of these. I may need to take out more insurance when I get home
Given that the UK voting system is essentially the same as the American, making voting LibDem/Green/UKIP an obvious waste of time in the vast majority of locations, it is interesting to wonder why in the U.K. the not-Tory not-Labour vote is typically in the 20-30% range whilst in the US the third party vote gets driven down to just a few %?
Think the duopoly is more entrenched in the US such that the two Independent Senators have to Caucus with the Dems or they would get nothing done.
Fine, but that doesn't really explain things. The question is about voters not politicians. And, anyway, one might just as well ask what Lucas/Farron/Carswell or the SNP, PC or Sinn Fein actually get done.
Hmmm.....the votecastr tracksuit wearing guy says they can't do proper comparisons of performance 2012 vs 2016 with their data / model....
Yeah time to fill that website in the bin.
And now they can't even bring up the data they want to show....it going really well....got to be time to go back to the webcam footage of the street soon.
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
Has a statto ever allocated the no of ECV for each state by % of votes cast (ie split EC) and worked out if there would have been a different winner in previous elections ?
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
Maybe 2000 was right on that model though. Republicans in safe states didn't turn out, but would have done if their vote had been important.
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
It probably stems from Article 5 of the consitution about each state being equally represented.
NB - I do think they allocate ECV based on 2 senators + districts/ counties in each state - which have to be about the same size, (650,000 or so) so there is a pretty good correlation.
Does anyone else consider the ECV system is outmoded & should be replaced by the total amount of votes cast.Seems fairer to me.Take Gore in 2000 for example.
It is what it is. If the Americans want to keep the idea of state-by-state voting and the delay between election and inauguration then ECVs really do not add much more friction. More significant problems surround voter suppression, gerrymandering, and right down to the basics like having enough polling stations to avoid queues that would disgrace a newly democratised third world country several decades back.
Incidentally, when the results start coming in, this page by Ian Warren with an interactive map of the 2012 results by county (and also the Hispanic and other demographic data) might be very useful:
Note that you have to switch on the 'Results by county' visible layer on the map, otherwise you just get the state result when you click on the county.
The graphics may be nice, but is the underlying data actually any good? They are just counting people going in/out of some polling places, and weighting according to a poll they did previously. It's not even a proper exit poll.
Comments
edit - now 5.6
edit now 5.7
However, whilst there are clearly common undercurrents behind irrational Brexit and irrational Trump, there is no law of history that makes events ever repeat themselves so precisely.
I just wondered what state FA was. They say there's nothing there ;-)
Bill Clinton in private speech: UK's Jeremy Corbyn is a "guy off the street... the maddest person in the room" https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/49501 …
If he hits 7, I might have a dip back in.
Now 5.8.
Betfair now over 120m matched, how much was on the Brexit vote?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d9gCN9-Jnfg
I rebacked the £50 at a bit of potential profit that I laid earlier, quite alot of tail risk on the Trumpster
Every said the same about the famous 2010 UK exit poll.
It was bang on.
It's an interesting experiment. I say give it a chance.
NB - I do think they allocate ECV based on 2 senators + districts/ counties in each state - which have to be about the same size, (650,000 or so) so there is a pretty good correlation.
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/XX
XX = two letter state code (FL, NH etc etc)
I'll be watching votecastr...that presenter is super fit.....
http://election-data.co.uk/us-election-2016
Note that you have to switch on the 'Results by county' visible layer on the map, otherwise you just get the state result when you click on the county.