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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White House race
With the White House race observers on both sides of the Atlantic have tried to draw similarities to politics in the United Kingdom, namely Trump is analogous to Brexit, but perhaps the better analogy is Donald Trump is more akin to Jeremy Corbyn.
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Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.
lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
Do you really not get the point I'm making? Or are you intent on defending your position come what may?
I would expect that almost every nationalist movement that has ever existed considered itself to be good, just as every internationalist movement thought likewise. It's what they did or intended to do that makes them good or bad, not the label or the type of movement they represent.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-37886179
Cheaper cocaine. What could possibly go wrong ... ?
The problem Trump faces is that having run a campaign based on wild conspiracy theories (the birther stuff, Obama is a Muslim, Ted Cruz's dad killed JFK, Clinton murderers, rigged elections, judge Scalia was murdered, and dozens of others), it's going to be rather hard for him to get any traction now with more email stuff.
There's also plenty potential for late releases of fake emails, since there's no time left to disprove anything that comes out now.
Syriza would be a better parallel, but Britain is not yet Greece, and Corbyn is no Alexis Tsipras.
I am sure Nick Clegg and Chuka Umunna will back my efforts to have this overturned.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/is-nate-silver-538-right-230734
Of course, it is a total fallacy that a big share of the US electorate is completely insane. You just happen to disagree with them, or fail to understand them, and are putting your failures on them, not where it belongs. (And, no, I am not a Trump supporter, but understand the issues that attract them to him).
One of the differences, however, is that the UK has already tried Mr Corbyn's approaches & didn't like it a lot. That, presumably, is why he enthuses younger people but older ones - not so much.
I see the commonalities the OP draws, but it seems to me that Mr Corbyn's phenomenon is in fact the polar opposite to the other examples of zeitgeist.
(I read the OP wondering whose piece it was & then I read (5) and wondered no longer!)
He'd probably quickly become less unpopular if he were good to his word and jumped the UK to the front of the trade deal queue. Although I doubt we'd want the terms offered.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2016/06/29/2-obamas-international-image-remains-strong-in-europe-and-asia/
12% of Brits have confidence in him. Mostly UKIP supporters.
As Theresa May is showing, there is a significant market for a nationalist centre right party, that unites white van man with Colonel Blimp and Mr Moneybags
The people who Made America Great!
If Trump's leading in the national vote share I suspect the EC will be decisively in his favour.
Some County Council canvassing anecdotes. Please note that they are for mild interest and do not purport to be representative of anything. I've had two sessions in WWC wards, one in my own (Eastwood), one today in an area in my former patch (Awsworth). Both voted Leave. Points:
* Long-standing Labour voters seem much the same as usual - many mention in passing that they voted Leave, but they see no particular disconnect with voting Labour in the County elections or indeed in the next General.
* There are more people than usual who say that they find the whole scene confusing and have no idea how they'll vote in the future. These include people who were down as voting for all the parties in the past.
* If there's a UKIP revival in progress, it's not visible there. Nobody mentioned them, though they will be some of the "I'm not Labour" vote.
* Two voters mentioned Corbyn - one was a big fan and said he meant he'd be voting for the first time for 20 years; the other said he'd never vote Labour under Corbyn (previous canvass: Conservative). Nobody mentioned May or any other leader. Several Awsworth voters mentioned Anna Soubry, without enthusiasm.
Overall, the impression was not much change on last time (2013), but it's hard to be sure as there was a significant LibDem vote and that tends not to show up explicitly (people just say "Not Labour" and you don't really know).
What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.
The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
This could of course work both ways - if something really nasty is revealed about HRC in the month between electing and voting.
It could all get even more farcical if the electoral college is close.
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Corbyn will be losing various Stoke seats, Derbyshire North East, almost certainly below 200 seats.
There is not ONE psephologist of any serious worth that has suggested Corbyn will even come CLOSE to winning, the situations aren't really ALL that comparable - Corbyn is going to lose, and Trump's probable defeat will be a result that UK Labour can only DREAM of getting.
Corbyn is a junior backbencher that even I had never heard of before his nomination, who has spent his whole life in obscure political movements, whose only job outside parliament was working in a local authority housing office (fifty years ago) and whose squawking delivery about arcane subjects that nobody has heard of far less cares about would be enough to put off Gibbon's Roman theologians.
There is of course a huge backlash going on all over the world against the corruption, or at least the perceived corruption, and incompetence of the established political systems and their operators. Trump, Le Pen, Podoema, UKIP, they all benefit from this. But so far the only one that has actually been electorally successful is Tsipras, and he has clung to power only because he made a deal with the very forces he was elected promising to destroy!
All of those have in common that they are outsiders who took on or are taking on the political establishment by frontal assault. But Corbyn is the quintessential insider - prep school, boarding school, cushy job secured by parental contacts, safe seat due to being politically sound. He sneaked in the back way, and Momentum as a movement barely measures up to the Libertarian party, let alone the Tea Party. While it is not inconceivable that he might hold most seats that Labour currently hold, short of the onset of the Third Great Depression the Conservatives are easily going to win the next election if he is leading Labour.
And if the Third Great Depression happens, then Labour are likely to be a casualty anyway as a socially dry, economically socialist party hammers them to pieces.
Trump Electoral College votes vs UK Labour seats @ £2 per point.
So if Trump wins 220 electoral college votes and Corbyn wins 230 seats, I'll owe a charity of your choice £20.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464
Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?
I doubt even if Corbyn got elected and stated re-nationalising railways, he would scare capital in quite the way Brexit does.
What can one say?
Norbert Hoffer got 35.1% in the first round (And will be very close when the 2nd round is rerun), I think Le Pen would make it if she were to get around 45%.
https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/794960628527996928
But I doubt very much that TSE seriously believes that Corbyn has a hope in hell...he's just being polemical
Do I dislike the idea of cuts? Yes. Do I think they are necessary? Yes. Do I think they could be done better? Yes. Do I think the people to do that are Corbyn and Macdonnell? No. Even if I did, do I think they will cut spending? No.
Do I think the rich should pay more tax as a proportion of their income? Yes. Do I believe that higher tax rates on their own will achieve that? No, because that's been tried and failed many times. Do I think that taxes for people like me will go up or down under Corbyn? Up, because the amount of fiddling at the higher levels will increase and the burden to plug the gap will fall on me.
It doesn't help of course that Corbyn is an apologist for murderers who consorts with Holocaust deniers and thinks Macdonnell, Abbott and Thornberry are fit to hold senior roles. But his policy platform is terrible as well. Most of his policies are about as plausible as offering better weather and free ponies, and the ones that are not are irrelevant to voters' actual decisions.
* Well it would be if Paddy had let me have more than £7 on the bet
It was tongue in cheek self-parody. I am a Brexit supporter who believes that it is the ability of an independent UK to do precisely this sort of deal that makes it better economically for us in the longer term to be out of the EU. Of course, there are a ton of non-economic reasons to be out of the EU too.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-migrants-spd-idUKKBN1310KH?il=0
"The UK should be leading in Europe"....
During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.
I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
I actually fear the consequences of Le Pen winning an election in our second-closest neighbour.
Could it be a European voting intention that has been misinterpreted?
Can't find it on their website or Le Figaro who commissioned Kantar's last presidential poll.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-idUKKBN13103Q?il=0
Something's wrong methinks.
Kantar's tweet of 3 hours ago makes clear Le Pen maxes at 35% in any age band, she cannot be at 45% overall.
I'm suspecting that'll be pretty much dead on with both. Gives us something like 274-216, with NH/FL/NC being coinflips.