Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn and his fans should be hoping Trump wins the White

2456

Comments

  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    viewcode said:

    this site's lack of focus

    Part of its attraction for me.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    On topic, @TSE must have been high on Liverpool's chance to top the table when he wrote this thread.

    Trump has an outside chance of winning in the US, Corbyn has no chance of winning in the UK, no matter how unpopular the government becomes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,913
    chestnut said:

    German Ministry wants 'Australian style' interceptor boats stationed in the Med:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-idUKKBN13103Q?il=0

    If they'd said that 12 months ago, no Brexit...
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited November 2016

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump will probably lose, but he will improve on Mitt Romney's electoral college vote - Iowa, Ohio gained & North Carolina lost.

    Corbyn will be losing various Stoke seats, Derbyshire North East, almost certainly below 200 seats.

    There is not ONE psephologist of any serious worth that has suggested Corbyn will even come CLOSE to winning, the situations aren't really ALL that comparable - Corbyn is going to lose, and Trump's probable defeat will be a result that UK Labour can only DREAM of getting.

    You are getting far too serious dear Pulps for your own good.... Could you not see that TSE's header was a pisstake?
    What I'm saying is there are longshots that might happen, Trump is amongst those. And those that won't - PM Corbyn is firmly in the latter.
    And you are completely right...anyone who thinks Corbyn could be PM is deluded...but there are some of us (including me) who can possibly see a pathway for Trump.

    But I doubt very much that TSE seriously believes that Corbyn has a hope in hell...he's just being polemical
    Corbyn as PM is improbable rather than impossible. A lot depends on how chaotic the Tories become post Brexit. They have a small majority and a Corbyn led minority government is perfectly possible.

    The Tory Government at presents make the Major dark days of the bastards appear in comparison a halcyon era of unity and harmony....

    The Tories are not fit to be a single party Government. They are like rats in a sack spiked by LSD with some ketamine thrown in for good measure.

    May is barely 2 months in...2 months and she is crippled by her party. Bless her. And then we have Corbyn...did you see that ITV clip yesterday? Argghhhhhh

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....
  • Sean_F said:

    AnneJGP said:

    MTimT said:

    Plus a big share of the UK electorate isn't completely insane.

    Many Remainers seem to think they are including our own Mr Meeks and Scott P.

    Of course, it is a total fallacy that a big share of the US electorate is completely insane. You just happen to disagree with them, or fail to understand them, and are putting your failures on them, not where it belongs. (And, no, I am not a Trump supporter, but understand the issues that attract them to him).

    I'm in the 'fail to understand' camp - not American voters so much, but the whole political system. It's like baseball, or American football: I haven't yet been able to grasp either the rules of the game or the scoring system.

    It's a kind of hybrid of 18th century Britain and the Roman Republic.
    Good shout.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    MTimT said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Where does the polling on the Italian referendum stand?
    Almost all polls have the Italians rejecting Renzi's reforms, but within the MoE.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump will probably lose, but he will improve on Mitt Romney's electoral college vote - Iowa, Ohio gained & North Carolina lost.

    Corbyn will be losing various Stoke seats, Derbyshire North East, almost certainly below 200 seats.

    There is not ONE psephologist of any serious worth that has suggested Corbyn will even come CLOSE to winning, the situations aren't really ALL that comparable - Corbyn is going to lose, and Trump's probable defeat will be a result that UK Labour can only DREAM of getting.

    Despite having a bet on Trump in Ohio I've suddenly got "The Feeling" that he's going to narrowly lose it.
    Its all about the great Jill Stein failure for me now(*)

    * Well it would be if Paddy had let me have more than £7 on the bet :D
    Hmmm, that's interesting, they let me have more than £7 (10 Euros) on it. I wonder how much I can get on.

    Can't find it on their site anymore, you got the link handy?

    EDIT: Found it, not linked on their US Politics Page.
  • Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,165
    edited November 2016
    William_H said:

    ydoethur said:

    William_H said:

    Freggles said:

    The problem with this is that you will not find anywhere near the same kind of support for Corbyn type policies among the British public, as for Trump type ones in the US.

    As Theresa May is showing, there is a significant market for a nationalist centre right party, that unites white van man with Colonel Blimp and Mr Moneybags

    Tax the rich and stop the cuts and re-nationalise the railways is a pretty popular policy platform. Corbyn's problem is Corbyn, not his policies.
    But they're not really bread and butter policies. Do I think the current railway network is a shambles? Yes. Am I willing to consider renationalising them to sort matters out? Yes. Will it affect my vote? No, because it's not a vital issue.

    Do I dislike the idea of cuts? Yes. Do I think they are necessary? Yes. Do I think they could be done better? Yes. Do I think the people to do that are Corbyn and Macdonnell? No. Even if I did, do I think they will cut spending? No.

    Do I think the rich should pay more tax as a proportion of their income? Yes. Do I believe that higher tax rates on their own will achieve that? No, because that's been tried and failed many times. Do I think that taxes for people like me will go up or down under Corbyn? Up, because the amount of fiddling at the higher levels will increase and the burden to plug the gap will fall on me.

    It doesn't help of course that Corbyn is an apologist for murderers who consorts with Holocaust deniers and thinks Macdonnell, Abbott and Thornberry are fit to hold senior roles. But his policy platform is terrible as well. Most of his policies are about as plausible as offering better weather and free ponies, and the ones that are not are irrelevant to voters' actual decisions.
    We're talking about popularity, not plausibility. Trump's policies aren't plausible, but they are popular.
    My point was that because people don't take them seriously, even though we may like the sound of them in theory they won't win him votes. Ask William Hague and Michael Howard if you don't believe me.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    MTimT said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Where does the polling on the Italian referendum stand?
    To answer my own question, since 26 September, 3 polls put Yes in front, 1 is tied, and 28 put No in the lead.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,165
    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump will probably lose, but he will improve on Mitt Romney's electoral college vote - Iowa, Ohio gained & North Carolina lost.

    Corbyn will be losing various Stoke seats, Derbyshire North East, almost certainly below 200 seats.

    There is not ONE psephologist of any serious worth that has suggested Corbyn will even come CLOSE to winning, the situations aren't really ALL that comparable - Corbyn is going to lose, and Trump's probable defeat will be a result that UK Labour can only DREAM of getting.

    Despite having a bet on Trump in Ohio I've suddenly got "The Feeling" that he's going to narrowly lose it.
    Its all about the great Jill Stein failure for me now(*)

    * Well it would be if Paddy had let me have more than £7 on the bet :D
    Hmmm, that's interesting, they let me have more than £7 (10 Euros) on it. I wonder how much I can get on.

    Can't find it on their site anymore, you got the link handy?

    EDIT: Found it, not linked on their US Politics Page.
    Wait, I can cover 0-2% for a profit? This is free money people. Free money.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718595
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148
    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Wow... She wouldn't need many transfer votes to get over the line if the result is anything like that.
    Oh well...if Le Pen wins in France all Brexit bets are off. It will seem a very sensible decision for the UK to jump off the EU train before Le Pen arrives in her jack boots.

    Le Pen will trigger a Frexit.
    So the remaining 26 EU nations will be negotiating with 2 departing nations? But the UK & France can't enter into negotiations between themselves until they've both left?

    That might help or or it might hinder. And if one of UK/France gets a better 'deal' than the other, oh-ho.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
    Desperate times and all that.....

    I have a sneaking feeling that GO's time will come.....

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,894
    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    Watch The Archers?????
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148

    chestnut said:

    German Ministry wants 'Australian style' interceptor boats stationed in the Med:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-idUKKBN13103Q?il=0

    If they'd said that 12 months ago, no Brexit...
    Unlikely they'd be saying it now, if the Brexit vote hadn't happened.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    AnneJGP said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Wow... She wouldn't need many transfer votes to get over the line if the result is anything like that.
    Oh well...if Le Pen wins in France all Brexit bets are off. It will seem a very sensible decision for the UK to jump off the EU train before Le Pen arrives in her jack boots.

    Le Pen will trigger a Frexit.
    So the remaining 26 EU nations will be negotiating with 2 departing nations? But the UK & France can't enter into negotiations between themselves until they've both left?

    That might help or or it might hinder. And if one of UK/France gets a better 'deal' than the other, oh-ho.
    France won't leave - apart from everything else, it sees itself as the founder. A Quitaly is more likely than a Frexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,913
    AnneJGP said:

    chestnut said:

    German Ministry wants 'Australian style' interceptor boats stationed in the Med:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-idUKKBN13103Q?il=0

    If they'd said that 12 months ago, no Brexit...
    Unlikely they'd be saying it now, if the Brexit vote hadn't happened.
    I doubt that entered in to their calculations. It's very much a burning domestic issue.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148
    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AnneJGP said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Wow... She wouldn't need many transfer votes to get over the line if the result is anything like that.
    Oh well...if Le Pen wins in France all Brexit bets are off. It will seem a very sensible decision for the UK to jump off the EU train before Le Pen arrives in her jack boots.

    Le Pen will trigger a Frexit.
    So the remaining 26 EU nations will be negotiating with 2 departing nations? But the UK & France can't enter into negotiations between themselves until they've both left?

    That might help or or it might hinder. And if one of UK/France gets a better 'deal' than the other, oh-ho.
    Our courts might argue that the UK is a member of the EU until it isn't and can only be excluded from its own negotiations (and the same for France)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721
    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
    Desperate times and all that.....

    I have a sneaking feeling that GO's time will come.....

    Tyson you have either had too good a lunch or you are insane.
  • AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    Very true.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)

    You could have done for that one AnneJ, and OldKingCole.....I would have smiled myself.....

  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    rpjs said:

    Dromedary said:

    Third like goodness knows who in the electoral college.

    Seems to me that there is a chance there will be a third placer in the EC this year. Maybe Evan McMullin, though I doubt it, but there's already been one Democratic candidate elector in Washington state who has said he won't vote for Clinton. I'm guessing he won't be voting for Trump.
    I agree, and I won't be surprised if electors vote for four or more candidates either, when they vote on 19 December. A lot could happen in those six weeks. Even if Trump wins Utah, he could say something that seriously riles Mormons or some other group, or other events could occur that lead R or D electors to change their minds. To be sure on 9 November of getting the presidency, one of the candidates needs to win states that account for 275 ECVs or maybe more.
  • malcolmg said:

    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
    Desperate times and all that.....

    I have a sneaking feeling that GO's time will come.....

    Tyson you have either had too good a lunch or you are insane.
    Why not both?
    :smile:
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Charles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Wow... She wouldn't need many transfer votes to get over the line if the result is anything like that.
    Oh well...if Le Pen wins in France all Brexit bets are off. It will seem a very sensible decision for the UK to jump off the EU train before Le Pen arrives in her jack boots.

    Le Pen will trigger a Frexit.
    So the remaining 26 EU nations will be negotiating with 2 departing nations? But the UK & France can't enter into negotiations between themselves until they've both left?

    That might help or or it might hinder. And if one of UK/France gets a better 'deal' than the other, oh-ho.
    Our courts might argue that the UK is a member of the EU until it isn't and can only be excluded from its own negotiations (and the same for France)
    In any case, we could both coordinate position with a Frexit France and work on a post-EU bilateral trade deal in parallel, so long as the deal did not enter into force before formal Brexit/Frexit.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    Watch The Archers?????
    That's what he calls his neighbours!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,894
    malcolmg said:

    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
    Desperate times and all that.....

    I have a sneaking feeling that GO's time will come.....

    Tyson you have either had too good a lunch or you are insane.
    Let’s be charitable Mr G. A good lunch.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
    How nice of you :smile:
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited November 2016
    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
    As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,913
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Charles said:

    tyson said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Wow... She wouldn't need many transfer votes to get over the line if the result is anything like that.
    Oh well...if Le Pen wins in France all Brexit bets are off. It will seem a very sensible decision for the UK to jump off the EU train before Le Pen arrives in her jack boots.

    Le Pen will trigger a Frexit.
    So the remaining 26 EU nations will be negotiating with 2 departing nations? But the UK & France can't enter into negotiations between themselves until they've both left?

    That might help or or it might hinder. And if one of UK/France gets a better 'deal' than the other, oh-ho.
    Our courts might argue that the UK is a member of the EU until it isn't and can only be excluded from its own negotiations (and the same for France)
    In any case, we could both coordinate position with a Frexit France and work on a post-EU bilateral trade deal in parallel, so long as the deal did not enter into force before formal Brexit/Frexit.
    We could start a rival block. The United European Nations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Trump will probably lose, but he will improve on Mitt Romney's electoral college vote - Iowa, Ohio gained & North Carolina lost.

    Corbyn will be losing various Stoke seats, Derbyshire North East, almost certainly below 200 seats.

    There is not ONE psephologist of any serious worth that has suggested Corbyn will even come CLOSE to winning, the situations aren't really ALL that comparable - Corbyn is going to lose, and Trump's probable defeat will be a result that UK Labour can only DREAM of getting.

    Despite having a bet on Trump in Ohio I've suddenly got "The Feeling" that he's going to narrowly lose it.
    Its all about the great Jill Stein failure for me now(*)

    * Well it would be if Paddy had let me have more than £7 on the bet :D
    Hmmm, that's interesting, they let me have more than £7 (10 Euros) on it. I wonder how much I can get on.

    Can't find it on their site anymore, you got the link handy?

    EDIT: Found it, not linked on their US Politics Page.
    Wait, I can cover 0-2% for a profit? This is free money people. Free money.

    http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/us-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=2718595
    I would if I was allowed more than tuppence ha'penny on 0-1 :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    OT Polar Vortex will bring big winter freeze to the UK with -14C temperatures expected:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-polar-vortex-big-9206579
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    MTimT said:

    MTimT said:

    Another potential beneficiary of a Trump victory:

    https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/795233658819006464

    Anyone for a Le Pen / Mëlenchon last two?

    Where does the polling on the Italian referendum stand?
    To answer my own question, since 26 September, 3 polls put Yes in front, 1 is tied, and 28 put No in the lead.
    You are right...it looks like Renzi could lose....

    But since there is no conceivable alternative to Renzi...honestly there isn't unless you want a Berlusconi return, Grillo, or a Corbyn figure....the Italian system will figure out something to keep Renzi in situ....
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
  • Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    IanB2 said:

    OT Polar Vortex will bring big winter freeze to the UK with -14C temperatures expected:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-polar-vortex-big-9206579

    Bugger. By the end of last winter, I was hoping never again to hear that phrase "polar vortex"
  • ydoethur said:

    William_H said:

    ydoethur said:

    William_H said:

    Freggles said:

    The problem with this is that you will not find anywhere near the same kind of support for Corbyn type policies among the British public, as for Trump type ones in the US.

    As Theresa May is showing, there is a significant market for a nationalist centre right party, that unites white van man with Colonel Blimp and Mr Moneybags

    Tax the rich and stop the cuts and re-nationalise the railways is a pretty popular policy platform. Corbyn's problem is Corbyn, not his policies.
    But they're not really bread and butter policies. Do I think the current railway network is a shambles? Yes. Am I willing to consider renationalising them to sort matters out? Yes. Will it affect my vote? No, because it's not a vital issue.

    Do I dislike the idea of cuts? Yes. Do I think they are necessary? Yes. Do I think they could be done better? Yes. Do I think the people to do that are Corbyn and Macdonnell? No. Even if I did, do I think they will cut spending? No.

    Do I think the rich should pay more tax as a proportion of their income? Yes. Do I believe that higher tax rates on their own will achieve that? No, because that's been tried and failed many times. Do I think that taxes for people like me will go up or down under Corbyn? Up, because the amount of fiddling at the higher levels will increase and the burden to plug the gap will fall on me.

    It doesn't help of course that Corbyn is an apologist for murderers who consorts with Holocaust deniers and thinks Macdonnell, Abbott and Thornberry are fit to hold senior roles. But his policy platform is terrible as well. Most of his policies are about as plausible as offering better weather and free ponies, and the ones that are not are irrelevant to voters' actual decisions.
    We're talking about popularity, not plausibility. Trump's policies aren't plausible, but they are popular.
    My point was that because people don't take them seriously, even though we may like the sound of them in theory they won't win him votes. Ask William Hague and Michael Howard if you don't believe me.
    Why do you think they couldn't swallow "tax the rich and use the money to stop cuts" when they swallowed "£350 million a week for the NHS" and many are swallowing "build a wall and make Mexico pay for it" and the rest of Trumps stuff?

    Corbyn isn't the one to sell people on this stuff, because he's already pegged as a crazy old lefty - but that's a personal issue not one with his actual policies.
  • Good afternoon, everyone.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148
    MTimT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
    As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
    Interesting observation. One does look at the point the voice/sound is coming from. Traditional distraction technique, I believe.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    malcolmg said:

    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
    Desperate times and all that.....

    I have a sneaking feeling that GO's time will come.....

    Tyson you have either had too good a lunch or you are insane.
    Let’s be charitable Mr G. A good lunch.
    I'm as politically discombobulated as I've ever been...


    OK a very good Italian lunch fuelled by some wine, grappas, British publishers, a close relative of Fanfani...doesn't help clarify one's judgement....

    Normally I would be sound asleep enjoying a siesta...but the weather is akin to being at Darwin, and pbCOM is a welcome distraction
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,985
    IanB2 said:

    OT Polar Vortex will bring big winter freeze to the UK with -14C temperatures expected:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-polar-vortex-big-9206579

    If true, it'll be interesting to see how gas and 'leccy supplies hold up.

    (cues RCS)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    I think two small towns in NH typically announce first - Dixville Notch opens its polls at 00:00am and the voting population of 12 vote then; Hart's Location has a 41 voters. Though they are both so small they are not usually a useful bellwether, unless it a wave election.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    I would be looking at major differences from the current polls as well.

    Curently Nate has Trump +12.1 Indiana and +19.1 Kentucky
    Romney won Indiana +10.2 and Kentucky +22.7
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
    Thanks :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148

    IanB2 said:

    OT Polar Vortex will bring big winter freeze to the UK with -14C temperatures expected:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-polar-vortex-big-9206579

    If true, it'll be interesting to see how gas and 'leccy supplies hold up.

    (cues RCS)
    I must dig out my stone hot water jar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,119
    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    My advice is to stay away from the badgers. Particularly when they are out culling other species. Your average badger lives in the kind of mental truculence that a certain type of shaven headed human requires 15 pints of strong cider to reach.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MTimT said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    I think two small towns in NH typically announce first - Dixville Notch opens its polls at 00:00am and the voting population of 12 vote then; Hart's Location has a 41 voters. Though they are both so small they are not usually a useful bellwether, unless it a wave election.
    Yes - though NH as a whole continues voting throughout the day. I wonder what would happen if one of the residents in those two tiny precincts refused to play ball by insisting on their right to vote later?!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    IanB2 said:

    OT Polar Vortex will bring big winter freeze to the UK with -14C temperatures expected:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-polar-vortex-big-9206579

    If true, it'll be interesting to see how gas and 'leccy supplies hold up.

    ... and global warming theories.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,119

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    Very true.
    Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    edited November 2016
    MTimT said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    I think two small towns in NH typically announce first - Dixville Notch opens its polls at 00:00am and the voting population of 12 vote then; Hart's Location has a 41 voters. Though they are both so small they are not usually a useful bellwether, unless it a wave election.
    Last time DN (which trends republican) was 5=5 Obama/ Romney so you can guarantee the press will seize on a 6=4 (or better) Clinton win as being significant, and gloss over any portent if Trump wins 7=3.
  • If it is persistently below zero, do keep the heating on overnight (or even, at a low level, for days if you're going on holiday). Otherwise the water in your pipes can freeze. This also means the water expands, rupturing the pipes. They subsequently leak, and can cost you an absolute fortune to replace, as well as being an utter pain in the arse to fix.

    [Hoping the boiler keeps working. It's been fine since mended but that took a long time to get right].
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,157
    justin124 said:

    MTimT said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    I think two small towns in NH typically announce first - Dixville Notch opens its polls at 00:00am and the voting population of 12 vote then; Hart's Location has a 41 voters. Though they are both so small they are not usually a useful bellwether, unless it a wave election.
    Yes - though NH as a whole continues voting throughout the day. I wonder what would happen if one of the residents in those two tiny precincts refused to play ball by insisting on their right to vote later?!
    They can only close if they they have reached 100% turnout.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,894

    IanB2 said:

    OT Polar Vortex will bring big winter freeze to the UK with -14C temperatures expected:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-polar-vortex-big-9206579

    If true, it'll be interesting to see how gas and 'leccy supplies hold up.

    (cues RCS)
    Well, I’m OK for a month. Off to Thailand tomorrow. Back for Christmas.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited November 2016

    Confusion as Corbyn says he won't block Brexit

    The apparent U-turn has caused confusion among Labour MPs


    http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-could-block-article-50-10647341

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited November 2016

    Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
    Betfair has Meléchon at 95 still, despite him being a close third in that poll. Le Pen at 7.8 is surely also value if she is actually close to 45%.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27360404/market?marketId=1.117179983
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AnneJGP said:

    MTimT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
    As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
    Interesting observation. One does look at the point the voice/sound is coming from. Traditional distraction technique, I believe.
    BTW, which part of Devon. Born in Plymouth, went to Plympton Grammar (now Hele's School) before setting off on my never-ending travels.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    MTimT said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    I think two small towns in NH typically announce first - Dixville Notch opens its polls at 00:00am and the voting population of 12 vote then; Hart's Location has a 41 voters. Though they are both so small they are not usually a useful bellwether, unless it a wave election.
    1960, 1964, 1968, 1976, 1992 all misses.

    Recently slightly better.

    Looking at a broad guess I'd say if Trump doesn't win Dixville notch, he may well be in trouble - Clinton can afford to lose it.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
    Yeah, 5am to 5pm the polls are open for. It is a state holiday though.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,119
    chestnut said:

    German Ministry wants 'Australian style' interceptor boats stationed in the Med:

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-germany-idUKKBN13103Q?il=0

    Doesn't that mean that Germany is being all fascist again?
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    edited November 2016
    I must say Andy Murray's on court body language is transformed...... for the better.

    I think being Number One will make him a much better player....he could be there for a long time.
  • Sandpit said:

    Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
    Betfair has Meléchelon at 95 still, despite him being a close third in that poll. Le Pen at 7.8 is surely also value if she is actually close to 45%.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27360404/market?marketId=1.117179983
    She's not at 45% it's a crossbreak!

    She's at 29 or 30%.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591

    Sandpit said:

    Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
    Betfair has Meléchelon at 95 still, despite him being a close third in that poll. Le Pen at 7.8 is surely also value if she is actually close to 45%.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27360404/market?marketId=1.117179983
    She's not at 45% it's a crossbreak!

    She's at 29 or 30%.
    Ah okay, that makes more sense. Will save the little cash I have before Tuesday for something else then ;)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    justin124 said:



    Yes - though NH as a whole continues voting throughout the day. I wonder what would happen if one of the residents in those two tiny precincts refused to play ball by insisting on their right to vote later?!

    I think these towns gained the right to run their own elections, which means they make their own local election rules. I would guess that means that would be dissenters disenfranchise themselves unless they vote with everyone else.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    chestnut said:

    Germans press for "Canadian style" points based immigration system.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-migrants-spd-idUKKBN1310KH?il=0

    "The UK should be leading in Europe"....

    They should have thought about that over a year ago.

    Europe is sinking in a mess all of its own making.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    We know what happened to RodCrosby now.

    He became a thread writer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,165
    William_H said:



    Why do you think they couldn't swallow "tax the rich and use the money to stop cuts" when they swallowed "£350 million a week for the NHS" and many are swallowing "build a wall and make Mexico pay for it" and the rest of Trumps stuff?

    Corbyn isn't the one to sell people on this stuff, because he's already pegged as a crazy old lefty - but that's a personal issue not one with his actual policies.

    What makes you think they did? I very much doubt if the silly campaigns Trump/Leave ran have made any material difference to the outcome except possibly making it narrower than it would otherwise have been. Nobody cared about the NHS. The real fights were over immigration, sovereignty and trade. As for Trump, the response to him appears more visceral than anything.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,234
    tyson said:

    I must say Andy Murray's on court body language is transformed...... for the better.

    I think being Number One will make him a much better player....he could be there for a long time.

    It's amazing what Lendl has done for him.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
    In one or two states (which cross time zones), the Media may call the result while there is still an hour left to vote in parts of the state.
  • Mr. Hopkins, we should be glad Corbyn isn't a surgeon given his inability to tell his arse from his elbow.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Alistair said:

    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
    Yeah, 5am to 5pm the polls are open for. It is a state holiday though.
    I did hear of polling stations closing very early compared to what we have in the UK, which sounded on the face of it a little underhand - but if they call a public holiday on Election Day then fair enough.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,165
    tyson said:

    I must say Andy Murray's on court body language is transformed...... for the better.

    I think being Number One will make him a much better player....he could be there for a long time.

    Would be great if it spurred him on to complete the career golden slam. There's no doubt he's good enough.

    For a long time I feared he was a latter day Roddick, who head the talent to win a dozen slams and the misfortune to play at the same time as a certain M. Federer.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,894
    ydoethur said:

    William_H said:



    Why do you think they couldn't swallow "tax the rich and use the money to stop cuts" when they swallowed "£350 million a week for the NHS" and many are swallowing "build a wall and make Mexico pay for it" and the rest of Trumps stuff?

    Corbyn isn't the one to sell people on this stuff, because he's already pegged as a crazy old lefty - but that's a personal issue not one with his actual policies.

    What makes you think they did? I very much doubt if the silly campaigns Trump/Leave ran have made any material difference to the outcome except possibly making it narrower than it would otherwise have been. Nobody cared about the NHS. The real fights were over immigration, sovereignty and trade. As for Trump, the response to him appears more visceral than anything.
    Not sure you’re right about the NHS claim, Dr. Immigration, yes, though.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    nunu said:
    Well if death doesn't stop you being elected then being in a penitentiary is obviously no bar.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    weejonnie said:

    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
    In one or two states (which cross time zones), the Media may call the result while there is still an hour left to vote in parts of the state.
    This is also bad.As much as I don't like Trump. If you're gonna have early voting, have it in all.


    Kevin Cate – ‏@KevinCate

    Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,157
    weejonnie said:

    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
    In one or two states (which cross time zones), the Media may call the result while there is still an hour left to vote in parts of the state.
    Totally unlike the UK, where you barely know there is an election going on based on the news reports!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,157
    MTimT said:

    justin124 said:



    Yes - though NH as a whole continues voting throughout the day. I wonder what would happen if one of the residents in those two tiny precincts refused to play ball by insisting on their right to vote later?!

    I think these towns gained the right to run their own elections, which means they make their own local election rules. I would guess that means that would be dissenters disenfranchise themselves unless they vote with everyone else.
    According to the wikipedia page, the law states they can only close after reaching 100% turnout.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Sandpit said:

    Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
    Betfair has Meléchon at 95 still, despite him being a close third in that poll. Le Pen at 7.8 is surely also value if she is actually close to 45%.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27360404/market?marketId=1.117179983
    I think we established down thread that the poll only questioned Le Pen's immediate family and close friends...or something like that....

    Juppe is nailed on to win...unless of course he tries to rape a maid, smears her with incriminating semen whilst trying to do so and attempts to do a runner.....
  • F1: just a week until Brazil. If Rosberg wins, he gets the title. Pay close attention to the weather forecast. It rains a lot in Sao Paulo (may even be more than Silverstone) and Rosberg could find the title slipping away from him if it's heavy.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    Very true.
    Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
    A normal person did mention Brexit to me last week. She said "What's happening about this Brexit, then? I haven't heard anything about it for ages."
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    Very true.
    Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
    Went to one of those Christmas Day lunches for solo people a few years back. The local MP came to say Hello & Happy Christmas & generally show her face.

    I recognised her. When I was able to tell people who 'that lady' was, I did collect some odd looks.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,721

    malcolmg said:

    tyson said:

    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    At this moment...I want a national unity government led by George Osborne. I'd be happy to suspend elections for ten years to let him get on with it....

    George Osborne? Who are you and what have you done with Tyson?
    Desperate times and all that.....

    I have a sneaking feeling that GO's time will come.....

    Tyson you have either had too good a lunch or you are insane.
    Why not both?
    :smile:
    good thinking
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Anyway - looks like the herd effect is taking place on Betfair - more going on HRC as Trump drifts to 4.9 -->
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu said:



    This is also bad.As much as I don't like Trump. If you're gonna have early voting, have it in all.


    Kevin Cate – ‏@KevinCate

    Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough

    It's an artifact of America's schizophrenic decentralisation . In NC early voting location in heavily democratic counties have been closed and reduced massively, 14 locations down to 1 in one instance. In Florida the counties hot having early.voting today are Republican ones that have chosen not to as Dems are more likely to early vote.
  • Mr. Chris, those 'normal' people are weird.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    ydoethur said:

    tyson said:

    I must say Andy Murray's on court body language is transformed...... for the better.

    I think being Number One will make him a much better player....he could be there for a long time.

    Would be great if it spurred him on to complete the career golden slam. There's no doubt he's good enough.

    For a long time I feared he was a latter day Roddick, who head the talent to win a dozen slams and the misfortune to play at the same time as a certain M. Federer.
    As a bit of Federer zealot....I am rather hoping that Federer makes the grand comeback next year....But if not Federer....then Murray, and I will like Murray even more if he stops behaving like a baby on court....like this afternoon....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    RobD said:

    weejonnie said:

    Sandpit said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    Isn't that 5pm local time?

    There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
    In one or two states (which cross time zones), the Media may call the result while there is still an hour left to vote in parts of the state.
    Totally unlike the UK, where you barely know there is an election going on based on the news reports!
    To be fair it is always the lead story of the day, but the coverage is very bland and covers little more than the politicians themselves going to vote. One advantage of a single time zone is that the media can run their exit poll at 10pm as voting finishes.

    In the US elections, of course, everything is organised at state level or lower, the elections actually being for state representatives in the electoral college.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Afternoon all.

    Big fan of our American cousins but the conversation below reminds me how eye-poppingly bad they are at running elections. The 55% turnouts are really no mystery.
  • Sandpit said:

    Ok, panic over.

    The Kantar poll is a cross break of ST PCS- which is a work-based social demographic of low skilled, I think.

    Incidentally Ladbrokes has push Juppé out to 4/6 on the strength of this (non)poll. If you didn't catch him at better odds, take it now.
    Betfair has Meléchelon at 95 still, despite him being a close third in that poll. Le Pen at 7.8 is surely also value if she is actually close to 45%.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/#/politics/event/27360404/market?marketId=1.117179983
    She's not at 45% it's a crossbreak!

    She's at 29 or 30%.
    Ha!
    *Starts unloading tinned goods from shopping trolley, remembers Trump and starts putting them back in*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    I would be looking at major differences from the current polls as well.

    Curently Nate has Trump +12.1 Indiana and +19.1 Kentucky
    Romney won Indiana +10.2 and Kentucky +22.7
    Certainly if Trump has a bigger than expected win in Kentucky that will suggest the white working class have come out for him, Pence may help him in Indiana which may produce a slightly higher than average swing
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    AnneJGP said:

    I recognised her.

    Ah! I think that lets me know near enough where you are - Newton Abbott/Totnes area.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:



    This is also bad.As much as I don't like Trump. If you're gonna have early voting, have it in all.


    Kevin Cate – ‏@KevinCate

    Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough

    It's an artifact of America's schizophrenic decentralisation . In NC early voting location in heavily democratic counties have been closed and reduced massively, 14 locations down to 1 in one instance. In Florida the counties hot having early.voting today are Republican ones that have chosen not to as Dems are more likely to early vote.
    Letting politicians near the election process itself is bonkers, does anywhere else have such partisan interference in the running of elections?

  • Confusion as Corbyn says he won't block Brexit

    The apparent U-turn has caused confusion among Labour MPs


    http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-could-block-article-50-10647341

    I pointed out yesterday, it was an unsustainable position. May can just put forward a no strings attached bill and demand a straight vote. Labour MPs can then vote for or against it. If Labour MPs voted against it, it would hit them hard in the North and Wales.

    Corbyn is rubbish in putting up the position temporarily, but at least he has corrected himself. Farron is still leading the light brigade charge.
  • Mr. Tyson, be nice if Federer could win another Slam. Not sure he will, though (not that I pay close attention).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591

    F1: just a week until Brazil. If Rosberg wins, he gets the title. Pay close attention to the weather forecast. It rains a lot in Sao Paulo (may even be more than Silverstone) and Rosberg could find the title slipping away from him if it's heavy.

    I believe Mr Hamilton will be doing a Brazilian rain dance between now and next Sunday. He has good memories of São Paulo in inclement weather!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,716
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    weejonnie said:

    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    I've just seen report from latest IBD is showing +13 lead with Catholics.

    Anyone got the data?

    Trump is +14 with Protestants, but +4 with Catholics.

    http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


    Clinton winning 65+ by 4 points.

    lollllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll!
    Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
    That will mean a popcorn session!
    The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
    And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers.
    The people who Made America Great!
    I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.

    What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.

    The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
    Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
    The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
    They are only all closed from 12am, so it is a very early indication though the fuller picture will be in from midnight when polls close in Vermont, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida too
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,148
    MTimT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    MTimT said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    AnneJGP said:

    tyson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror

    I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......

    Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.

    And there was me trying to be nice.........
    Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.

    During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.

    I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
    If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
    I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
    As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
    Interesting observation. One does look at the point the voice/sound is coming from. Traditional distraction technique, I believe.
    BTW, which part of Devon. Born in Plymouth, went to Plympton Grammar (now Hele's School) before setting off on my never-ending travels.
    Teignbridge, Newton Abbot constituency.
This discussion has been closed.