Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
That will mean a popcorn session!
The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers. The people who Made America Great!
I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.
What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.
The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
I would be looking at major differences from the current polls as well.
Curently Nate has Trump +12.1 Indiana and +19.1 Kentucky Romney won Indiana +10.2 and Kentucky +22.7
Certainly if Trump has a bigger than expected win in Kentucky that will suggest the white working class have come out for him, Pence may help him in Indiana which may produce a slightly higher than average swing
From the polls it looks like Clinton's vote may well be down in heavily leaning states...NY/California...... But they have the luxury of not voting because it doesn't matter.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
It is an underlying issue where I work (local authority, Brexit voting large provincial town) because it has resulted in a lot of economic uncertainty. Are people in a fever about it? No. It's a point of discussion. People think that life will just go on. I don't think that people will be rioting on the streets. There is certainly a minority fringe of leave voters who would be willing to go on a riot but most people would probably accept the decision even if it was reversed. There would probably be a greater unrest if people cant afford food, petrol etc and start losing their jobs, which perversely is quite likely if Brexit goes ahead. I still think the decision should be implemented because I believe in democracy, but also that the consequences that people experience is directly linked to Brexit and those that advocated it.
Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough
It's an artifact of America's schizophrenic decentralisation . In NC early voting location in heavily democratic counties have been closed and reduced massively, 14 locations down to 1 in one instance. In Florida the counties hot having early.voting today are Republican ones that have chosen not to as Dems are more likely to early vote.
Letting politicians near the election process itself is bonkers, does anywhere else have such partisan interference in the running of elections?
There was a recent congressional election where Dems got most votes but Reps got most seats due to the highly partisan boundaries. It's what makes 2020 such an important election, new districts after the census.
Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
That will mean a popcorn session!
The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers. The people who Made America Great!
I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.
What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.
The first complete result is .
Indiana and
I would be looking at major differences from the current polls as well.
Curently Nate has Trump +12.1 Indiana and +19.1 Kentucky Romney won Indiana +10.2 and Kentucky +22.7
Certainly if Trump has a
From the polls it looks like Clinton's vote may well be down in heavily leaning states...NY/California...... But they have the luxury of not voting because it doesn't matter.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
It is an underlying issue where I work (local authority, Brexit voting large provincial town) because it has resulted in a lot of economic uncertainty. Are people in a fever about it? No. It's a point of discussion. People think that life will just go on. I don't think that people will be rioting on the streets. There is certainly a minority fringe of leave voters who would be willing to go on a riot but most people would probably accept the decision even if it was reversed. There would probably be a greater unrest if people cant afford food, petrol etc and start losing their jobs, which perversely is quite likely if Brexit goes ahead. I still think the decision should be implemented because I believe in democracy, but also that the consequences that people experience is directly linked to Brexit and those that advocated it.
It is the sort of thing that wouldn't have an immediate impact, but would cause such a collapse of faith in the system that it could spring up again in destructive and unexpected ways several years down the line.
If the elite stop believing in democracy when they lose, the working class will follow shortly afterwards. That way lies the road to hell.
The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers. The people who Made America Great!
I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.
What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.
The first complete result is announced at 00.01 am Eastern Time (4.00am GMT Tuesday) (sort of like Sunderland rushing to be the first to declare) -but that is purely symbolic. The winner is likely to be declared 24 hours later.
Indiana and Kentucky will be first to declare, any swing to Trump from 2012 will tell you it could be tight nationally, if there is a swing to Clinton it tells you she has probably won relatively comfortably
The polls in parts of both those states close at 11pm GMT.
Isn't that 5pm local time?
There's a really serious need for impartial voting rules and boundaries in the US, without politicians involved in the process.
In one or two states (which cross time zones), the Media may call the result while there is still an hour left to vote in parts of the state.
Totally unlike the UK, where you barely know there is an election going on based on the news reports!
Well there's only one closing time and the television media have to be neutral during the day.
True story. A friend of mine and some fellow university students were asked to take an 'exit poll' during one election - with data passed up for analysis. He and they felt that being inside a pub was more comfortable and so made educated 'guesses' as to what would happen at different times.
Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough
It's an artifact of America's schizophrenic decentralisation . In NC early voting location in heavily democratic counties have been closed and reduced massively, 14 locations down to 1 in one instance. In Florida the counties hot having early.voting today are Republican ones that have chosen not to as Dems are more likely to early vote.
Letting politicians near the election process itself is bonkers, does anywhere else have such partisan interference in the running of elections?
There was a recent congressional election where Dems got most votes but Reps got most seats due to the highly partisan boundaries. It's what makes 2020 such an important election, new districts after the census.
But won't the new 2020 districts end up just as gerrymandered as the current districts, due to everyone involved in the process having either an (R) or a (D) after their name? And because it's always been like that, the chance of both sides agreeing a truce with the appointment of an impartial administrator is precisely zero.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.
During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.
I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
Interesting observation. One does look at the point the voice/sound is coming from. Traditional distraction technique, I believe.
BTW, which part of Devon. Born in Plymouth, went to Plympton Grammar (now Hele's School) before setting off on my never-ending travels.
Teignbridge, Newton Abbot constituency.
This week I discovered my dad wooed my mother in Teignmouth, and on their first date he damaged his car on a pub wall in Bishopsteignton.
I feel traumatised. I have more in common with SeanT than I feared!
Heads up for 8pm on BBC1 - Sir David Attenborough's Planet Earth 2 series
I've long given up on nature docs....I find them too depressing...... What with global warming, habitat destruction, over fishing, hunting, intensive farming, rearing of meat products, and poaching....we are making life extremely tough for mother nature (and all that delightful flora and fauna) to co-exist with us.....
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.
During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.
I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
Interesting observation. One does look at the point the voice/sound is coming from. Traditional distraction technique, I believe.
BTW, which part of Devon. Born in Plymouth, went to Plympton Grammar (now Hele's School) before setting off on my never-ending travels.
Teignbridge, Newton Abbot constituency.
I went as far as Newton Abbot last month, doing the rail line from Westbury through Exeter. Saw the sea wall at Dawlish
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
A normal person did mention Brexit to me last week. She said "What's happening about this Brexit, then? I haven't heard anything about it for ages."
Another "normal" person asked me (as the office political expert/nerd/weirdo) why Boris Johnson was Foreign Sec. (he'd just seen BoJo on the BBC 24 rolling news at reception) while he was Mayor of London... Yes, resident and working in London.
Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough
It's an artifact of America's schizophrenic decentralisation . In NC early voting location in heavily democratic counties have been closed and reduced massively, 14 locations down to 1 in one instance. In Florida the counties hot having early.voting today are Republican ones that have chosen not to as Dems are more likely to early vote.
Letting politicians near the election process itself is bonkers, does anywhere else have such partisan interference in the running of elections?
There was a recent congressional election where Dems got most votes but Reps got most seats due to the highly partisan boundaries. It's what makes 2020 such an important election, new districts after the census.
But won't the new 2020 districts end up just as gerrymandered as the current districts, due to everyone involved in the process having either an (R) or a (D) after their name? And because it's always been like that, the chance of both sides agreeing a truce with the appointment of an impartial administrator is precisely zero.
Quite, which is what makes it so important. Take a s tate legislature in 2020 and the side that does gets to lock in a decade long advantage.
"If Trump can win the Presidency then Corbyn can become Prime Minister"
It reminds me of the time Frank Muir was asked what a cow and a robin had in common and he said the only thing he could think of is that they both have four legs except for the robin which has two
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
It is an underlying issue where I work (local authority, Brexit voting large provincial town) because it has resulted in a lot of economic uncertainty. Are people in a fever about it? No. It's a point of discussion. People think that life will just go on. I don't think that people will be rioting on the streets. There is certainly a minority fringe of leave voters who would be willing to go on a riot but most people would probably accept the decision even if it was reversed. There would probably be a greater unrest if people cant afford food, petrol etc and start losing their jobs, which perversely is quite likely if Brexit goes ahead. I still think the decision should be implemented because I believe in democracy, but also that the consequences that people experience is directly linked to Brexit and those that advocated it.
It is the sort of thing that wouldn't have an immediate impact, but would cause such a collapse of faith in the system that it could spring up again in destructive and unexpected ways several years down the line.
If the elite stop believing in democracy when they lose, the working class will follow shortly afterwards. That way lies the road to hell.
Quite - it is the sort of thing where minds would be made up - in the background, as it were.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
'Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...'
Indeed, Cruz would be in prime position for 2020 with maybe Pence a contendor too. However the GOP would almost certainly have held Congress in such a scenario, giving Hillary almost no mandate at all
Trump will probably lose, but he will improve on Mitt Romney's electoral college vote - Iowa, Ohio gained & North Carolina lost.
Corbyn will be losing various Stoke seats, Derbyshire North East, almost certainly below 200 seats.
There is not ONE psephologist of any serious worth that has suggested Corbyn will even come CLOSE to winning, the situations aren't really ALL that comparable - Corbyn is going to lose, and Trump's probable defeat will be a result that UK Labour can only DREAM of getting.
Despite having a bet on Trump in Ohio I've suddenly got "The Feeling" that he's going to narrowly lose it.
Its all about the great Jill Stein failure for me now(*)
* Well it would be if Paddy had let me have more than £7 on the bet
Hmmm, that's interesting, they let me have more than £7 (10 Euros) on it. I wonder how much I can get on.
Can't find it on their site anymore, you got the link handy?
EDIT: Found it, not linked on their US Politics Page.
Wait, I can cover 0-2% for a profit? This is free money people. Free money.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
'Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...'
Indeed, Cruz would be in prime position for 2020 with maybe Pence a contendor too. However the GOP would almost certainly have held Congress in such a scenario, giving Hillary almost no mandate at all
GOP have to come out of this and re-invent themselves and build a candidate for 2020...that's certainly not Cruz, although you might be right and he ends up as Trump Mark 2
Does anyone have any real info on the quality of the GOTV operations for GOP/Dems this year? My guess is a very effective operation from the Dems and chaos from the GOP - based on past performance multiplied by the Trump/GOP establishment war.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
tyson said :Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...
I don't think so.....
Taniel @Taniel CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
Two weeks today, Juppe will top the first round of the LR primary, making the French election essentially over.
Complacency personified, this poll assumed Juppe was the LR candidate. Juppe is the epitome of the establishment, lacks charisma, has a shady past and Le Pen is running as a charismatic outsider with appeal to the white working and lower middle class while the media hates her, now what race does that remind you of? Juppe will be favourite but I think it will be a lot closer than you suggest
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
It is an underlying issue where I work (local authority, Brexit voting large provincial town) because it has resulted in a lot of economic uncertainty. Are people in a fever about it? No. It's a point of discussion. People think that life will just go on. I don't think that people will be rioting on the streets. There is certainly a minority fringe of leave voters who would be willing to go on a riot but most people would probably accept the decision even if it was reversed. There would probably be a greater unrest if people cant afford food, petrol etc and start losing their jobs, which perversely is quite likely if Brexit goes ahead. I still think the decision should be implemented because I believe in democracy, but also that the consequences that people experience is directly linked to Brexit and those that advocated it.
It is the sort of thing that wouldn't have an immediate impact, but would cause such a collapse of faith in the system that it could spring up again in destructive and unexpected ways several years down the line.
If the elite stop believing in democracy when they lose, the working class will follow shortly afterwards. That way lies the road to hell.
In the hierarchy of values that a free society needs to have I'd put equality before the law as number one, above democratic elections. Sadly that's something that many at the bottom no longer believe in. If that way lies the road to hell, I'm afraid we're already on it.
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
Went to one of those Christmas Day lunches for solo people a few years back. The local MP came to say Hello & Happy Christmas & generally show her face. I recognised her. When I was able to tell people who 'that lady' was, I did collect some odd looks.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
tyson said :Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...
I don't think so.....
Taniel @Taniel CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
Many of the wwc Trump appeals too are Democrats and as I said Trump could narrow the gap in Midwestern swing states without winning most of them while Hillary scrapes home in western swing states and Florida thanks to the Hispanic vote
CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
That's a relief, I've done some money buying in California.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
'Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...'
Indeed, Cruz would be in prime position for 2020 with maybe Pence a contendor too. However the GOP would almost certainly have held Congress in such a scenario, giving Hillary almost no mandate at all
GOP have to come out of this and re-invent themselves and build a candidate for 2020...that's certainly not Cruz, although you might be right and he ends up as Trump Mark 2
If Hillary wins the GOP will not be picking an electable candidate until 2024, maybe Jeb's son the half-Hispanic George P Bush will challenge Kaine then, however in 2020 the base will blame a 2016 defeat on the establishment and Cruz will be ready to carry their torch again
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
A normal person did mention Brexit to me last week. She said "What's happening about this Brexit, then? I haven't heard anything about it for ages."
Another "normal" person asked me (as the office political expert/nerd/weirdo) why Boris Johnson was Foreign Sec. (he'd just seen BoJo on the BBC 24 rolling news at reception) while he was Mayor of London... Yes, resident and working in London.
That does seem a bit surprising. I wonder if she had voted in the mayoral election.
I should add that my normal person was very surprised when I said it would be at least two years before we left the EU. She didn't seem to be aware that any negotiations would be involved.
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known.
During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other.
I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
If the worst comes to worst we can always come to live in Devon, drink some tea, eat scones (with far too much clotted cream), watch the Archers, and Strictly. I'll be out later trying to stop the badger cull of course......
I don't think the Archers is on television. (Would have added a smiley but I believe you don't like them.)
As a kid, I believe I did spend most of each episode looking at the radio while listening. Is that watching the Archers?
Interesting observation. One does look at the point the voice/sound is coming from. Traditional distraction technique, I believe.
BTW, which part of Devon. Born in Plymouth, went to Plympton Grammar (now Hele's School) before setting off on my never-ending travels.
Teignbridge, Newton Abbot constituency.
I went as far as Newton Abbot last month, doing the rail line from Westbury through Exeter. Saw the sea wall at Dawlish
One more stop and I could have bought you a veggie-burger and a green health shake in Totnes!
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
Yes - among "normal" people knowing the name of your MP is considered somewhere between being a political expert, a nerd or a "bit strange"
Went to one of those Christmas Day lunches for solo people a few years back. The local MP came to say Hello & Happy Christmas & generally show her face. I recognised her. When I was able to tell people who 'that lady' was, I did collect some odd looks.
Sounds like a generous act by her.
Yes, I think it was. Photo-op & meeting voters notwithstanding, she still gave up part of Christmas Day to be on duty, as so many people are obliged to do.
Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
That will mean a popcorn session!
The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers. The people who Made America Great!
I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.
What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.
The first complete result is .
Indiana and
I would be looking at major differences from the current polls as well.
Curently Nate has Trump +12.1 Indiana and +19.1 Kentucky Romney won Indiana +10.2 and Kentucky +22.7
Certainly if Trump has a
From the polls it looks like Clinton's vote may well be down in heavily leaning states...NY/California...... But they have the luxury of not voting because it doesn't matter.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
Until 1992 California had been a pretty reliable Republican state at Presidential elections.
I'm going for 3 states to flip....North Carolina to Hillary and Iowa and Ohio for Trump...(although I'm still betting on Ohio in the blue column and think this could stay Red)
Trump leads by 1% overall today though with IBID TIPP so with the LA Times he now leads two national polls, however he does not lead Colorado or Pennsylvania in any polls and they are the key states to get to 270 for both candidates. It confirms my view that there is a real chance Trump wins the popular vote but a Trump Electoral College win is unlikely
That will mean a popcorn session!
The question for many will be whether it will be sweet or salty popcorn.
And Trump won’t be able to claim it’s fixed, because the system used is that decided by the Founding Fathers. The people who Made America Great!
I don't think he'll claim its fixed (unless it really is and evidence emerges) but there could be several re-counts if close.
What WILL be interesting is if there are lots of stories of voters asking for paper ballots. That would suggest possible increased support for Trump.
The first complete result is .
Indiana and
I would be looking at major differences from the current polls as well.
Curently Nate has Trump +12.1 Indiana and +19.1 Kentucky Romney won Indiana +10.2 and Kentucky +22.7
Certainly if Trump has a
From the polls it looks like Clinton's vote may well be down in heavily leaning states...NY/California...... But they have the luxury of not voting because it doesn't matter.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big
Until 1992 California had been a pretty reliable Republican state at Presidential elections.
True, Nixon won it in 1960 and Ford in 1976 when they both lost nationally, though the rising Hispanic vote there has changed its political leanings
I'm going for 3 states to flip....North Carolina to Hillary and Iowa and Ohio for Trump...(although I'm still betting on Ohio in the blue column and think this could stay Red)
Mr. NorthWales, did Miller have any explanation for her ridiculous rhetoric?
No - she just comes over as too full of her own importance. She is going to be very angry when the HOC overwhelmingly passes a simple authority to serve A50 in the early new year
Betfair Exchange works, but most other conventional outlets are blocked by the authorities. A friend who lives near a couple of shops in the UK is very good to know though
I'm going for 3 states to flip....North Carolina to Hillary and Iowa and Ohio for Trump...(although I'm still betting on Ohio in the blue column and think this could stay Red)
Vote share 47.5/43.5- a 4% lead for HRC....
This is my thought too
I know...but I'm not copying you...honest.
I think you'll find JackW will go that way. It's just there are too many polls telling us the same story. This could actually be the most boring election in memory when the polls from months ago were telling us exactly what is going to happen and nothing has changed in the interim..except for a helluva lot of noise.
Does anyone have any real info on the quality of the GOTV operations for GOP/Dems this year? My guess is a very effective operation from the Dems and chaos from the GOP - based on past performance multiplied by the Trump/GOP establishment war.
That's the conventional thinking, but so much convention has been turned on its head in the last 18 months I'll believe it on Wednesday morning!
Two weeks today, Juppe will top the first round of the LR primary, making the French election essentially over.
Complacency personified, this poll assumed Juppe was the LR candidate. Juppe is the epitome of the establishment, lacks charisma, has a shady past and Le Pen is running as a charismatic outsider with appeal to the white working and lower middle class while the media hates her, now what race does that remind you of? Juppe will be favourite but I think it will be a lot closer than you suggest
Complacency? I have no skin in this game, I am just able to read polls.
Wow - Gina Miller calling the PM a tin pot dictator. She needs to calm down
Thank goodness she didn't call Tessy an enemy of the people.
She didn't call Theresa anything.
She said, verbatim, "We do not live in a tin-pot dictatorship. We live in a country that has a sovereign parliament."
Hmm. From "We do not live in a tin-pot dictatorship" to "Theresa May is a tin-pot dictator" seems a rather large jump, even for the hysterical fringe of this debate.
Wow - Gina Miller calling the PM a tin pot dictator. She needs to calm down
Thank goodness she didn't call Tessy an enemy of the people.
She didn't call Theresa anything.
She said, verbatim, "We do not live in a tin-pot dictatorship. We live in a country that has a sovereign parliament."
Still, that's dreadfully disrespectful to the PM who is only doing her best to guide us through this difficult time: I mean she's even taken on the responsibility of keeping all the complicated Brexit machinations to herself so we don't have to be burdened with it. What a gal!
Wow - Gina Miller calling the PM a tin pot dictator. She needs to calm down
Thank goodness she didn't call Tessy an enemy of the people.
She didn't call Theresa anything.
She said, verbatim, "We do not live in a tin-pot dictatorship. We live in a country that has a sovereign parliament."
Hmm. From "We do not live in a tin-pot dictatorship" to "Theresa May is a tin-pot dictator" seems a rather large jump, even for the hysterical fringe of this debate.
Only 16 of 67 Fla. counties are early voting today, & in big Clinton areas including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Orange, Hillsborough
It's an artifact of America's schizophrenic decentralisation . In NC early voting location in heavily democratic counties have been closed and reduced massively, 14 locations down to 1 in one instance. In Florida the counties hot having early.voting today are Republican ones that have chosen not to as Dems are more likely to early vote.
Letting politicians near the election process itself is bonkers, does anywhere else have such partisan interference in the running of elections?
There was a recent congressional election where Dems got most votes but Reps got most seats due to the highly partisan boundaries. It's what makes 2020 such an important election, new districts after the census.
But won't the new 2020 districts end up just as gerrymandered as the current districts, due to everyone involved in the process having either an (R) or a (D) after their name? And because it's always been like that, the chance of both sides agreeing a truce with the appointment of an impartial administrator is precisely zero.
Quite, which is what makes it so important. Take a s tate legislature in 2020 and the side that does gets to lock in a decade long advantage.
CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
That's a relief, I've done some money buying in California.
Mr. Tyson, could be worse. A nearby family are letting off many fireworks in their back garden. Fortunately the dog is unusually calm when it comes to fireworks (not perfect but pretty close).
Mr. NorthWales, did Miller have any explanation for her ridiculous rhetoric?
It is overblown, and does her no credit. However May wanted to start the A50 process in a way that the courts have now found illegal (though it could be reversed on appeal), and continuing down that route without legal authority would be the actions of a tin-pot dictator (*). But May's not doing that.
I know you want A50 started and Brexit to happen. So do I - and I believe it would be best for it to happen as soon as possible. But it has to be done lawfully.
It's not as if the court has said there should be no Brexit: they've just said that there needs to be parliamentary scrutiny. I fail to see why so many people think that's a bad thing.
(*) Besides, there's no sense in being a tin-pot dictator nowadays. Much better to go the Putin route and be a dictator with the semblances of democratic credibility whilst ruthlessly controlling the private state. This is the route Erdogan is also going down.
Two weeks today, Juppe will top the first round of the LR primary, making the French election essentially over.
Complacency personified, this poll assumed Juppe was the LR candidate. Juppe is the epitome of the establishment, lacks charisma, has a shady past and Le Pen is running as a charismatic outsider with appeal to the white working and lower middle class while the media hates her, now what race does that remind you of? Juppe will be favourite but I think it will be a lot closer than you suggest
Complacency? I have no skin in this game, I am just able to read polls.
Even if this afternoon's poll was a rogue plenty of other polls have had Le Pen leading round 1 even with Juppe as the LR candidate and every poll has shown her doing significantly better in round 2 against Juppe than her father did against Chirac in 2002
Fiorentina have just scored....my windows almost shatter with the crowd noise when the wind blows my way.....
This is a great story - the "official" explanation is even more bizarre than UFOs!
"On October 27, 1954, a reserve game between Fiorentina and nearby rivals Pistoiese was under way at the Stadio Artemio Franchi when a group of UFOs traveling at high speed abruptly stopped over the stadium. The stadium became silent as the crowd of around 10,000 spectators witnessed the event and described the UFOs as cigar shaped. It was suggested that the most likely explanation was that the silk of mass migrating spiders had agglomerated high in the atmosphere."
Mr. NorthWales, did Miller have any explanation for her ridiculous rhetoric?
It is overblown, and does her no credit. However May wanted to start the A50 process in a way that the courts have now found illegal (though it could be reversed on appeal), and continuing down that route without legal authority would be the actions of a tin-pot dictator (*). But May's not doing that.
I know you want A50 started and Brexit to happen. So do I - and I believe it would be best for it to happen as soon as possible. But it has to be done lawfully.
It's not as if the court has said there should be no Brexit: they've just said that there needs to be parliamentary scrutiny. I fail to see why so many people think that's a bad thing.
(*) Besides, there's no sense in being a tin-pot dictator nowadays. Much better to go the Putin route and be a dictator with the semblances of democratic credibility whilst ruthlessly controlling the private state. This is the route Erdogan is also going down.
Miller was very confrontational on Sky and is only stoking anger in much the same way as Farage is.
I absolutely agree with the HoC getting a vote on A50 as it is very unlikely to be defeated in view of the 75% or so of constituencies that voted leave. Of course the Supreme Court could reverse the decision
CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
That's a relief, I've done some money buying in California.
I've died and been consigned to some sort of hell. Bremoaners to one side and suddenly electable Corbin on the other. The horror the horror
I doubt McDonnell and Corbyn, even if they implemented the most left wing platform for two terms of government, could inflict the kind of economic chaos that Brexit ideologues have created in a matter of months......
Brexit ideologues are simply zenophobic thugs and mindless numbskull vandals of the lowest kind. Populist morons.
And there was me trying to be nice.........
Please don't be misled by the febrile nature of the postings on here. In my daily life, no-one has ever mentioned anything about the referendum since the immediate period after the result was known. During that immediate post-referendum period, I met one person who was clearly shocked by the result and was reassuring himself that the outcome was only advisory. I met no-one who expressed anything other than a mild interest one way or the other. I don't think it's raising the national mood to fever pitch, whatever the newspapers might be saying. At least, not out here in the sticks (Devon).
Very true.
:
...food, petrol etc and start losing their jobs, which perversely is quite likely if Brexit goes ahead. I still think the decision should be implemented because I believe in democracy, but also that the consequences that people experience is directly linked to Brexit and those that advocated it.
It is the sort of thing that wouldn't have an immediate impact, but would cause such a collapse of faith in the system that it could spring up again in destructive and unexpected ways several years down the line.
If the elite stop believing in democracy when they lose, the working class will follow shortly afterwards. That way lies the road to hell.
In the hierarchy of values that a free society needs to have I'd put equality before the law as number one, above democratic elections. Sadly that's something that many at the bottom no longer believe in. If that way lies the road to hell, I'm afraid we're already on it.
Sadly that ship sailed long ago. Sailed and sank.
One of my Northern relatives puts it like this - not exactly his words but - "They've (the immigrants) have got their politicians. They get them favours - planning rules not applied, drop out of school in term time to do 'cultural enrichment' holidays, all that stuff. Don't blame 'em. It's all things we want. We want politicians like that - favours for *our* community."
The assumption is that communitarianism is the game now. And they want in as well.
In view of Corbyn's volte face today and the noises coming from labour today I do not see labour obstructing A50
Labour will not obstruct A50 but all the skulduggery will begin after.
Once A50 is served negotiations will commence and it will only be a some later date that the outline of a deal will become apparent and it is correct at that time for the HoC to scrutinise the deal and options.
I presume it's already been commented on, but another similarity between Trump and Corbyn is of course their open disdain, bordering on contempt, for the mainstream media. This, following an era in which careful cultivation of the press had been regarded as an essential part of a successful election campaign.
In view of Corbyn's volte face today and the noises coming from labour today I do not see labour obstructing A50
Labour will not obstruct A50 but all the skulduggery will begin after.
Once A50 is served negotiations will commence and it will only be a some later date that the outline of a deal will become apparent and it is correct at that time for the HoC to scrutinise the deal and options.
I'm going for 3 states to flip....North Carolina to Hillary and Iowa and Ohio for Trump...(although I'm still betting on Ohio in the blue column and think this could stay Red)
Vote share 47.5/43.5- a 4% lead for HRC....
This is my thought too
Just a touch closer and the Remainiacs will declare it indecisive and demand a new Election :-).
I presume it's already been commented on, but another similarity between Trump and Corbyn is of course their open disdain, bordering on contempt, for the mainstream media. This, following an era in which careful cultivation of the press had been regarded as an essential part of a successful election campaign.
But Corbyn's isn't fuelled by a desire to set up his own media empire.
I'm going for 3 states to flip....North Carolina to Hillary and Iowa and Ohio for Trump...(although I'm still betting on Ohio in the blue column and think this could stay Red)
Vote share 47.5/43.5- a 4% lead for HRC....
This is my thought too
Just a touch closer and the Remainiacs will declare it indecisive and demand a new Election :-).
Or the whinging leavers will be calling for a new election before the votes are counted.
That was one of the funniest events in the run-up to the referendum - some leavers calling for another referendum because they thought they had lost. Their tune has somewhat changed ...
Comments
From the polls it looks like Clinton's vote may well be down in heavily leaning states...NY/California...... But they have the luxury of not voting because it doesn't matter.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
If the elite stop believing in democracy when they lose, the working class will follow shortly afterwards. That way lies the road to hell.
True story. A friend of mine and some fellow university students were asked to take an 'exit poll' during one election - with data passed up for analysis. He and they felt that being inside a pub was more comfortable and so made educated 'guesses' as to what would happen at different times.
Clinton's vote could be more efficient this time than Obama's
Yes, that again is why I think Trump is more likely to win the popular vote than the electoral college. He will likely make it closer in big blue states like NY/California and tight in reasonably large blue states in the rustbelt and upper Midwest like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin without quite winning them while Hillary may narrowly win Florida and Colorado and Nevada due to the Hispanic turnout there
@Hyfud
Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/premier-league/table
I feel traumatised. I have more in common with SeanT than I feared!
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
Please be less than 5% between them on the day!
Clinton 44
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Stein 2
2way
Clinton 48
Trump 43
Nov 3-5, MOE +/- 2.7
It reminds me of the time Frank Muir was asked what a cow and a robin had in common and he said the only thing he could think of is that they both have four legs except for the robin which has two
Inside the crosstabs of 2way race:
Women: HRC 53, T 38
AAs: HRC 86, T 7
Latinos: HRC 65, T 20
18-34: HRC 55, T 32
@Hyfud
'Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...'
Indeed, Cruz would be in prime position for 2020 with maybe Pence a contendor too. However the GOP would almost certainly have held Congress in such a scenario, giving Hillary almost no mandate at all
'Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...'
Indeed, Cruz would be in prime position for 2020 with maybe Pence a contendor too. However the GOP would almost certainly have held Congress in such a scenario, giving Hillary almost no mandate at all
GOP have to come out of this and re-invent themselves and build a candidate for 2020...that's certainly not Cruz, although you might be right and he ends up as Trump Mark 2
@Hyfud
tyson said :Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...
I don't think so.....
Taniel @Taniel
CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
tyson said :Thats plausible...would be bad for the US. If Trump loses narrowly, or even loses narrowly but wins the popular vote...that will fuel the base and make it almost impossible for GOP to try and move on from this catastrophic election for them...
I don't think so.....
Taniel @Taniel
CA's population has grown by 18% since 2004, but the *raw* number of registered Rs has gone down by 12%! Number of Ds has grown by 22%. Also wwc voters better spread in swing states than either Lationos or College educated whites.
Many of the wwc Trump appeals too are Democrats and as I said Trump could narrow the gap in Midwestern swing states without winning most of them while Hillary scrapes home in western swing states and Florida thanks to the Hispanic vote
AAs: HRC 86, T 7
Latinos: HRC 65, T 20
18-34: HRC 55, T 32
Are those actual choices, or 'adjusted' assumptions?
GOP have to come out of this and re-invent themselves and build a candidate for 2020...that's certainly not Cruz, although you might be right and he ends up as Trump Mark 2
If Hillary wins the GOP will not be picking an electable candidate until 2024, maybe Jeb's son the half-Hispanic George P Bush will challenge Kaine then, however in 2020 the base will blame a 2016 defeat on the establishment and Cruz will be ready to carry their torch again
I should add that my normal person was very surprised when I said it would be at least two years before we left the EU. She didn't seem to be aware that any negotiations would be involved.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37889197
I'm going for 3 states to flip....North Carolina to Hillary and Iowa and Ohio for Trump...(although I'm still betting on Ohio in the blue column and think this could stay Red)
Vote share 47.5/43.5- a 4% lead for HRC....
She said, verbatim, "We do not live in a tin-pot dictatorship. We live in a country that has a sovereign parliament."
I think you'll find JackW will go that way. It's just there are too many polls telling us the same story. This could actually be the most boring election in memory when the polls from months ago were telling us exactly what is going to happen and nothing has changed in the interim..except for a helluva lot of noise.
(No I'm not particularly interested in taking up your offer at 6/4 either, I'm on a 2017 election at 12/1 already)
She is inciting anger as much as Farage is - she needs to calm down
Sorry, I had rather assumed you'd be less squeamish about making big league bets.
Now we know
I know you want A50 started and Brexit to happen. So do I - and I believe it would be best for it to happen as soon as possible. But it has to be done lawfully.
It's not as if the court has said there should be no Brexit: they've just said that there needs to be parliamentary scrutiny. I fail to see why so many people think that's a bad thing.
(*) Besides, there's no sense in being a tin-pot dictator nowadays. Much better to go the Putin route and be a dictator with the semblances of democratic credibility whilst ruthlessly controlling the private state. This is the route Erdogan is also going down.
"On October 27, 1954, a reserve game between Fiorentina and nearby rivals Pistoiese was under way at the Stadio Artemio Franchi when a group of UFOs traveling at high speed abruptly stopped over the stadium. The stadium became silent as the crowd of around 10,000 spectators witnessed the event and described the UFOs as cigar shaped. It was suggested that the most likely explanation was that the silk of mass migrating spiders had agglomerated high in the atmosphere."
I absolutely agree with the HoC getting a vote on A50 as it is very unlikely to be defeated in view of the 75% or so of constituencies that voted leave. Of course the Supreme Court could reverse the decision
Nate Silver has it as a 1-1000 chance.
One of my Northern relatives puts it like this - not exactly his words but - "They've (the immigrants) have got their politicians. They get them favours - planning rules not applied, drop out of school in term time to do 'cultural enrichment' holidays, all that stuff. Don't blame 'em. It's all things we want. We want politicians like that - favours for *our* community."
The assumption is that communitarianism is the game now. And they want in as well.
1. Leave with the deal.
2. Leave with no deal.
Is it?
That was one of the funniest events in the run-up to the referendum - some leavers calling for another referendum because they thought they had lost. Their tune has somewhat changed ...