politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get her over the line
What’s become almost the best guide to how WH2016 is going is how often it is Michelle Obama who is making the news.
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1st, not like Hillary?0
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Morlando 125
@mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies0 -
Matt McDermott
Matt McDermott – Verified account @mattmfm
Case of voter fraud in Iowa, but:
1) It was caught.
2) It was the first in local memory.
3) It was a Trump voter.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/crime-and-courts/2016/10/28/voter-fraud-suspect-arrested-des-moines/92892042/ …
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Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii 1m1 minute ago
I've gone over the internals of the IBD poll. They are showing MAJOR shifts with subgroups that look like manipulated BS.0 -
F1: P3 underway.0
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Just as the FBI has switched from Ying to Yang to keep balance the IBD has to go from Yang to Ying for the right.rottenborough said:Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii 1m1 minute ago
I've gone over the internals of the IBD poll. They are showing MAJOR shifts with subgroups that look like manipulated BS.0 -
The best part is that her excuse is that the polls are rigged.nunu said:Matt McDermott
Matt McDermott – Verified account @mattmfm
Case of voter fraud in Iowa, but:
1) It was caught.
2) It was the first in local memory.
3) It was a Trump voter.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/crime-and-courts/2016/10/28/voter-fraud-suspect-arrested-des-moines/92892042/ …0 -
Michelle has been a good first-lady. She should continuing focusing upon the good work achieved - despite Barry - and support those causes moving forward.
:Lexington-called-michelle-wrong:0 -
You need to cast a wider net, Tyson. This is Belinda Stronach, former Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development in Canada:tyson said:Completely O/T...but something I've meant to post out, but looking at this photo...
I have to say that Theresa May is extremely photogenic. She's a very stylish women. Cameron always looked a bit of a spiv, but May is possibly the best dressed political leader I can think of.
http://www.wonderslist.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Belinda-Stronach-Canada.jpg
And Mara Carfagna, former Minister for Equal Opportunity in Italy:
http://www.abcnewspoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Top-10-Most-Beautiful-Female-Politicians-in-the-World-2015-Mara-Carfagna.jpg0 -
For those who are complaining about gerrymandering of the British constituencies just be grateful you aren't american.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/how-to-gerrymander-your-way-to-a-huge-election-victory/
The NC Carolina map is a work of beauty, despite getting the majority of the Congressional votes Dems won only 3 seats out of 13 in 2012.0 -
Interesting piece on the personality cult of a Communist leader (not Corbyn):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-china-blog-378000620 -
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Fecking lraped chinese noteplad: no sperring or interryzance. I brame Plofessol Plessclot.
And humble apologies to our friends from China: Not everything is perfect (so we attempt to mask with 'humour').0 -
Mrs Clinton
Mrs Obama
So much for feminism.0 -
How exactly are the British constituencies going to be gerrymandered?Alistair said:For those who are complaining about gerrymandering of the British constituencies just be grateful you aren't american.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/how-to-gerrymander-your-way-to-a-huge-election-victory/
The NC Carolina map is a work of beauty, despite getting the majority of the Congressional votes Dems won only 3 seats out of 13 in 2012.0 -
Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)PlatoSaid said:Morlando 125
@mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies
1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.
Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.0 -
Great data, thx.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)PlatoSaid said:Morlando 125
@mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies
1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.
Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.0 -
If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.MonikerDiCanio said:Mrs Clinton
Mrs Obama
So much for feminism.
(Though I prefer equality over feminism).0 -
Its a lot more than that. 378,558 early/mail-in voters in Nevada up to 10pm 28/10/16 US Pacific time. So that's 27% of registered voters so far.Alistair said:Just had a quick look at the Nevada early voting stats
39815 Other
98055 Dems
62943 Reps
In total there's 1.4 million registered voters so that's 13% of the state voted.
As ever, names and distrcit of voters available on gov website http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/EV_TurnoutData.aspx
Dems have a margin in early over Reps just a tad behind that in 2012, when Obama carried the state.
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=45430 -
The Red Bulls seem to have found the pace, up in among the Mercs with the red cars 0.8 back.Morris_Dancer said:F1: P3 underway.
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Adam D Brown
Florida Poll (10/25-27):
@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw0 -
Mr. Sandpit, jein. According to radio, Mercedes had traffic and the Ferraris screwed up their fast laps.
Qualifying could be interesting.
Edited extra bit: off for a bite to eat, shall return fairly soon.0 -
Uxorious JJ, always under the Ottoman rolling-pin.JosiasJessop said:
If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.MonikerDiCanio said:Mrs Clinton
Mrs Obama
So much for feminism.
(Though I prefer equality over feminism).0 -
Flight aborts takeoff, all aboard escape safely. https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777
It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)
When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.
Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.0 -
There's been lots of cars getting in the way of each other, short track here at 2.6 miles. Sky commentators reckon the Mercs are fastest on a clean track, then RB than Ferrari. Qualifying starts two hours from now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, jein. According to radio, Mercedes had traffic and the Ferraris screwed up their fast laps.
Qualifying could be interesting.
Edited extra bit: off for a bite to eat, shall return fairly soon.0 -
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So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.0
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Now he is a bit of a joke, but 40+ years ago he produced an incredibly infamous expose of special needs "education" in NY, which he won a Peabody for.PlatoSaid said:I simply can't take a guy who looks like Groucho Marx seriously
https://youtu.be/7Xh9cEMry9Y
http://geraldo.com/page/willowbrook
WARNING:- The documentary really is absolutely shocking.0 -
The problem with that source is that it takes no account of the fact that this time in contrast to 2012 in NC early voting has been restricted in many counties only for that to be struck down by a federal court as gerrymandering designed to discriminate against (Democratic-voting) minorities, as a result of which many early voting sites only but only belatedly. I agree that the weekend data will give a more informed picture.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)PlatoSaid said:Morlando 125
@mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies
1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.
Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
Meanwhile the NY Times has looked at early voting patterns in NC and used them to forecast that Clinton will end up 6% ahead.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html0 -
Can the American people ask for another go with new candidates?SouthamObserver said:So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.
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as a result of which many early voting sites have only opened belatedlyWulfrun_Phil said:
The problem with that source is that it takes no account of the fact that this time in contrast to 2012 in NC early voting has been restricted in many counties only for that to be struck down by a federal court as gerrymandering designed to discriminate against (Democratic-voting) minorities, as a result of which many early voting sites only but only belatedly. I agree that the weekend data will give a more informed picture.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Just on that NC data (more here: http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/)PlatoSaid said:Morlando 125
@mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies
1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.
Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
Meanwhile the NY Times has looked at early voting patterns in NC and used them to forecast that Clinton will end up 6% ahead.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html0 -
Hillary eggplant. What a freak.PlatoSaid said:0 -
The area just beyond Capitol Hill was always very dangerous, but seemed to be gentrifying in an edgy kinda way when I was last there in May. The area around the White House always seemed fine to me.rural_voter said:Flight aborts takeoff, all aboard escape safely. https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777
It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)
When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.
Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.
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Is anyone offering a market on the winner of the election to be indicted before being inaugurated?SouthamObserver said:So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.
Given Trump's sexual misconduct and Hilary's inability to understand the Federal Records Act anything above 2-1 looks like value right now.
It would be a much better option for the US and the planet as well of course...0 -
I am very fond of my wife, but also disagree with her on many things.MonikerDiCanio said:
Uxorious JJ, always under the Ottoman rolling-pin.JosiasJessop said:
If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.MonikerDiCanio said:Mrs Clinton
Mrs Obama
So much for feminism.
(Though I prefer equality over feminism).
One of the things we may possibly agree on is your nastiness.
Edit: and she LOL's at it being an 'Ottoman' rolling pin. You really don't know her ...0 -
Is this true?
Jack Posobiec
Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC0 -
The less the public sees of her the better for her. Her best strategy is strict absence.PlatoSaid said:Is this true?
Jack Posobiec
Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC0 -
Mr. Observer, still odds against, I'd say.
Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).
Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.0 -
Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.PlatoSaid said:Adam D Brown
Florida Poll (10/25-27):
@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw
We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).0 -
Trump has a fraud trial starting in November and a rape trial scheduled for December. The way the US justice system works neither is likely to be over on 20th January, which is the day he'll be inaugurated.ydoethur said:
Is anyone offering a market on the winner of the election to be indicted before being inaugurated?SouthamObserver said:So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.
Given Trump's sexual misconduct and Hilary's inability to understand the Federal Records Act anything above 2-1 looks like value right now.
It would be a much better option for the US and the planet as well of course...
Not sure when Hillary might get busted. Right now, there seems to be scant evidence justifying a trial.
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I thought the same on hearing that she was 'putting resources' into Arizona.MonikerDiCanio said:
The less the public sees of her the better for her. Her best strategy is strict absence.PlatoSaid said:Is this true?
Jack Posobiec
Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC0 -
F1: Ladbrokes has no market up. Hmm.
On the plus side, at the moment Mr. Putney's thought of laying Rosberg at 1.33 for top 3 (can't recall if that's qualifying or podium) looks quite good right now.0 -
If, as below, she is five points behind in Florida and struggling in North Carolina Trump is moving into a very strong position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, still odds against, I'd say.
Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).
Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.
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Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.0
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“The number of extreme anti-government groups have have exploded since President Obama took office, from 150 groups to now well above 1,000, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center.
Many of these individuals have “deep seated fears of a possible Clinton presidency… if Trump were to lose, that could spark God knows what kind of violence or domestic terrorism,” said Heidi Beirich, who heads the SPLC’s Intelligence Project, an initiative which tracks the nation’s hate and hardline anti-government groups.”
(http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/29/oregon-verdict-gives-anti-government-movement-hope.html)
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Ipsos: FL: Clinton + 4Wulfrun_Phil said:
Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.PlatoSaid said:Adam D Brown
Florida Poll (10/25-27):
@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw
We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).0 -
Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.0
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Yep.rural_voter said:Flight aborts takeoff, all aboard escape safely. https://twitter.com/FlightAlerts777
It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)
When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.
Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.
I work in the aviation Insurance industry - I started in 1980 and the changes in safety levels really are amazing.0 -
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.0 -
And if Trump wins stay clear of American cities for a while. It's not looking good States-side.rottenborough said:“The number of extreme anti-government groups have have exploded since President Obama took office, from 150 groups to now well above 1,000, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center.
Many of these individuals have “deep seated fears of a possible Clinton presidency… if Trump were to lose, that could spark God knows what kind of violence or domestic terrorism,” said Heidi Beirich, who heads the SPLC’s Intelligence Project, an initiative which tracks the nation’s hate and hardline anti-government groups.”
(http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/29/oregon-verdict-gives-anti-government-movement-hope.html)
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Mr. Doethur, there's no need to wish me financial misfortune. Surely we can hope Trump wins North Carolina and loses everywhere else?
One agrees on their moral weakness. Perhaps only Utah can save America from a delinquent president (although I don't know much of the extra Republican candidate there).0 -
Florida is probably neck and neck. If Trump gains FL, IA, and OH, but loses NC, he still loses 244 to 294.SouthamObserver said:
If, as below, she is five points behind in Florida and struggling in North Carolina Trump is moving into a very strong position.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, still odds against, I'd say.
Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).
Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.0 -
F1: forty minutes after P3 and still no markets. Bit tardy today at Ladbrokes.0
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I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.ydoethur said:
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
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I know this is jest, but right now the optics a awful
John Podesta compares himself to a mobster for his collusion with Politico. #hillarysemail #podestaemails22 https://t.co/acBN8n7CRS0 -
On what basis for Clinton? FBI can't or won't yet say whether the emails even were to and from Clinton herself.ydoethur said:
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.0 -
Which of the two sleazebags did you have in mind? Are you worried she might do a Bush and support the other party?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
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Michelle has Presidential ambitions. If she knows what's good for her ( and she does ) she'll distance herself from the toxic crook pronto.SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
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You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.0 -
Amidst all the strife and argument, here's one story that people from all sides of political debate can probably smile at:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-378098190 -
Mr. Observer, only half an eye here (trying to spot the markets appearing) but what Clinton did was more serious than that. Security protocols aren't there to make men in black feel important.0
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Indeed. One happy story in among all the gloom and doom!JosiasJessop said:Amidst all the strife and argument, here's one story that people from all sides of political debate can probably smile at:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-378098190 -
I guess the sports desk is still busy with the football. Have you tried asking them on Twitter what happened to the F1 markets?Morris_Dancer said:F1: forty minutes after P3 and still no markets. Bit tardy today at Ladbrokes.
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I don't know what gender Monika is...so let me just say "it"......but "it" writes the most succinct posts on pbCOM....Often barely a few words, and often they are very funny. I like to think Moniker is a very sweet Primary School teacher in Dulwich who plays out this right wing caricature of an alter ego.JosiasJessop said:
I am very fond of my wife, but also disagree with her on many things.MonikerDiCanio said:
Uxorious JJ, always under the Ottoman rolling-pin.JosiasJessop said:
If you're trying to make the point I think you're trying to make (cack-handedly), then that's an argument for more feminism, not less.MonikerDiCanio said:Mrs Clinton
Mrs Obama
So much for feminism.
(Though I prefer equality over feminism).
One of the things we may possibly agree on is your nastiness.
Edit: and she LOL's at it being an 'Ottoman' rolling pin. You really don't know her ...0 -
Depends on what was in them and what was leaked from them.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.ydoethur said:
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
The FBI have so far found no evidence that anything highly sensitive (as in life threatening) was stolen. However, it should not even be in question especially for someone who trades on her experience and political skill.
While it is of course also possible and indeed entirely fair to argue that Trump's alleged behaviour is orders of magnitude worse, the simple fact remains that there is prima facie evidence to suggest they are both guilty of wilfully breaking the criminal law - which should rule both of them out of being President.
Which brings me back to my original point that they should both withdraw regardless of the damage to Mr Dancer's book. It's not a hope of Trump winning NC and losing everywhere else - it's an urgent need for them both to lose every state.0 -
I doubt that there's anywhere where views are 'universally' held, not even N.Korea. It's certainly the majority view though.GeoffM said:
You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
'64% view Michelle Obama favorably'
http://tinyurl.com/hvvbgd4
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Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.GeoffM said:
You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
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That's a very worrying idea.SouthamObserver said:So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.
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F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html
In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).0 -
A principled conservative. Good luck to him.MonikerDiCanio said:
Hillary eggplant. What a freak.PlatoSaid said:0 -
Do you maybe have a history of making very long odds winning bets?Morris_Dancer said:F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html
In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).0 -
How have you rated Romney's term as president?SouthamObserver said:So, Trump looks like he's going to do it. Blimey.
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Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?0 -
The Florida polling has been remarkably consistent and in line with early voting when comparing with 2012.rottenborough said:
Ipsos: FL: Clinton + 4Wulfrun_Phil said:
Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.PlatoSaid said:Adam D Brown
Florida Poll (10/25-27):
@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw
We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).0 -
Mr. Mark, a nice idea, but I doubt suddenly hundreds of strangers are checking my blog daily because of that.
Besides, I only have two tips that could legitimately be described as long odds, and one of those was back when Brown was PM.0 -
Possibly because everyone thinks she's such a dud she was only one silly cock-up away from defeat anyway. Add in the pessimism and tepidity of most of her supporters and the visceral loathing pro-Trumpers have for her...Alistair said:Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?
Incidentally the mathematics of this race means that she should still win unless she is actually indicted before polling day which I doubt is even possible given the short time left. But she will be crippled from her first hour in office if this investigation is ongoing, and it may severely damage the down ticket campaign leaving her facing a very hostile congress.0 -
Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll loseMaxPB said:
Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.Alistair said:Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?0 -
Michelle has done the job of First Lady very well. It's a difficult job to get right and she's given her time to a lot of good causes that are dear to her.tyson said:
Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.GeoffM said:
You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
It's a very different role to running for office though, where everything you've ever said and done is analysed critically by opponents, and you're expected to have an opinion on every current issue.0 -
It just feels like we're all going to wake up on the 9th and look at each other, stunned as Donald takes the rust belt on the back of rare voters.Jobabob said:
Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll loseMaxPB said:
Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.Alistair said:Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?0 -
Of course left wingers aren't blinkered, oh no............tyson said:
Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.GeoffM said:
You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.0 -
I would have thought they must have something serious. To do this just before an election they must be bloody sure of themselves.rottenborough said:
On what basis for Clinton? FBI can't or won't yet say whether the emails even were to and from Clinton herself.ydoethur said:
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.0 -
Yeah, tiny samples. Even assuming no weighting failing, all that Florida poll is stating is a 95% chance of the result being between Trump+15 and Clinton+3 ..... the latter being about where all the others are at.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Yet the same polling company, conducting polling over exactly the same period in Ohio, had an equally improbable result of Clinton 5% ahead there, a previously marginal state where she had reportedly been struggling. Taking all their statewide polls on that day, there wasn't much to suggest movement overall.
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Ditto their Ohio poll, 95% between Trump+5 and Clinton+13.
As you say, let's see how the email news shifts things. Does Abedin resign immediately? Even then there'll be some damage, say 1% maybe costs Clinton her chance in AZ IA OH, if it's 3% then NC NV FL also. There's quite a gap after that though, needs up to a 6% move to take the next states (PA, CO perhaps) ..... which is the point Trump wins.
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Well, it's possible. But remember what we said when Jeremy Corbyn said he would get non-voters to vote Labour - the problem is that non-voters don't vote. It's a sine qua non for the role, indeed. So his path still looks too steep and rocky.MaxPB said:
It just feels like we're all going to wake up on the 9th and look at each other, stunned as Donald takes the rust belt on the back of rare voters.Jobabob said:
Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll loseMaxPB said:
Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.Alistair said:Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?
If it were any candidate other than Hilary, this race would have been over months ago and the most one-sided election since 1936. That we're even discussing a possible Republican victory, and were doing so even before today's events, is an extremely damning comment on her weakness.0 -
Have you been linked from somewhere, do you have a log of IP addresses you can geo-locate?Morris_Dancer said:F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html
In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).0 -
If the ambiguous FBI statement hadn't been made would you be thinking this?MaxPB said:
It just feels like we're all going to wake up on the 9th and look at each other, stunned as Donald takes the rust belt on the back of rare voters.Jobabob said:
Some of us have him at 6.5 and still think he'll loseMaxPB said:
Its beginning to feel inevitable at this point. I don't know why, I've started to back Trump. Wish I'd gone in 6 when it was available.Alistair said:Whites everyone suddenly think Clinton is doomed?
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?0 -
Trying to work out whether that is more condescending and patronising to Michelle or to women. The fluffy headed darlings have no idea how to act without someone to copy, but here's Michelle to demonstrate that marrying an important man is the trick.tyson said:
Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.GeoffM said:
You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.0 -
Have you considered adding Google Ads or similar to your sidebar? For that number of hits you'll get a very occasional but nonetheless welcome cheque from them every now and then.Morris_Dancer said:F1: pre-qualifying piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html
In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).
There are also some Blogger tools which might help you learn more about the sources of the traffic should you feel inclined to tinker under the hood.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, I'll try and see... (worth noting I have the technical aptitude of a potato).
Edited extra bit: referring URLs show a few coming from the PB Vanilla forums and several odd single referral sites (like flowers to Russia).
Edited extra bit 2: looks like almost all (1,200 of about 1,300) are Mac users in the US.0 -
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So you are still happy quoting from a source that provably lied about the contents of the Podesta e-mails?PlatoSaid said:0 -
I'll try and PM you some details tomorrow, it's not technically difficult to do.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I'll try and see... (worth noting I have the technical aptitude of a potato).
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Mr. Sandpit, cheers.0
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Some of the emails allegedly discussed the identities of agents operating undercover in hostile territory, that information was available to any foreign power with a half competent hacking team (ie. most of them) and will get people killed, although by the nature of their jobs we will never know who, where, or how many. It's rather surprising you cannot see the equivalence between sexual predatory acts and getting people killed.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.ydoethur said:
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.0 -
#bringbackourgirls was such a success.tyson said:
Seriously.....You right wingers, you really are an ideologically blinkered bunch. Michelle is a tremendous role model for women.GeoffM said:
You think she's been good?SimonStClare said:Michelle has been a good First Lady, - would be a shame to ruin it supporting the sleazebag.
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.0 -
Strange that the same people outraged at this are ebulient when Wikileaks and co put field agents in danger.Indigo said:
Some of the emails allegedly discussed the identities of agents operating undercover in hostile territory, that information was available to any foreign power with a half competent hacking team (ie. most of them) and will get people killed, although by the nature of their jobs we will never know who, where, or how many. It's rather surprising you cannot see the equivalence between sexual predatory acts and getting people killed.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't see equivalence between Hillary not using proper email protocols and Trump's racism and sexual predatory.ydoethur said:
Mr Dancer, I would like to say that the safety of the planet trumps the optimum outcome for your book.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, on the plus side, someone here did tip Trump for North Carolina at about 3.5.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
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No, provably.GeoffM said:
They claim an email is an email from Hilary Clinton and link to it on Wikileaks. A quick look at the sender field shows it comes from a right wing Netherlands crank newsletter that spammed a whole host of email addresses. It wasn't even sent to Clinton never mind sent by her.0
