Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Hillary is now even more than reliant on the First Lady to get her over the line
What’s become almost the best guide to how WH2016 is going is how often it is Michelle Obama who is making the news.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
@mitchellvii In NC, 22% less blacks, 40% more independents, and Republicans are up 6% in voting. Closer to a R +2 right nationally + Indies
Matt McDermott – Verified account @mattmfm
Case of voter fraud in Iowa, but:
1) It was caught.
2) It was the first in local memory.
3) It was a Trump voter.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/crime-and-courts/2016/10/28/voter-fraud-suspect-arrested-des-moines/92892042/ …
I've gone over the internals of the IBD poll. They are showing MAJOR shifts with subgroups that look like manipulated BS.
:Lexington-called-michelle-wrong:
http://www.wonderslist.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Belinda-Stronach-Canada.jpg
And Mara Carfagna, former Minister for Equal Opportunity in Italy:
http://www.abcnewspoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Top-10-Most-Beautiful-Female-Politicians-in-the-World-2015-Mara-Carfagna.jpg
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/10/28/how-to-gerrymander-your-way-to-a-huge-election-victory/
The NC Carolina map is a work of beauty, despite getting the majority of the Congressional votes Dems won only 3 seats out of 13 in 2012.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-china-blog-37800062
https://youtu.be/7Xh9cEMry9Y
And humble apologies to our friends from China: Not everything is perfect (so we attempt to mask with 'humour').
Mrs Obama
So much for feminism.
1. "In comparison to each party's total ballots in 2012 to this date, registered Democrats are 4.8 percent behind their same day totals, registered Republicans are 2.2 percent ahead, and registered unaffiliated voters are 35.5 percent ahead of their same-day totals from four years ago."
2. The key thing in NC is in-person absentee ballots, which are the main part of early voting - they are 8% ahead of 2012 - Democrats are 5% behind 2012, Republicans are up 12% and unaffiliated are up 39%;
3. AA voting is again down - they only made up 20% of the in-person votes on Friday vs 26% on the equivalent day in 2012;
4. What should also be worrying in addition for the Democrats is the data on the unaffiliated voters, who have seen the biggest increase in percentage terms - of the 391K who have cast a ballot, 50% voting in the primaries - and 55% voted in the Republican primaries to 45% in teh Democrat ones. That might be a warning sign that the unaffiliated group is breaking for the Republicans, although it might be early days and there is no data on the othet 50%.
Personally, I am waiting to see what the weekend data shows on early voting but it looks more like HRC is in trouble in NC.
(Though I prefer equality over feminism).
Dems have a margin in early over Reps just a tad behind that in 2012, when Obama carried the state.
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
Florida Poll (10/25-27):
@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
3% shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/zMKXVVKrtw
Qualifying could be interesting.
Edited extra bit: off for a bite to eat, shall return fairly soon.
It may be becoming safer to be in the sky than on the ground in the dodgier parts of the USA (and UK?)
When I first visited Washington DC and stayed with a friend, he told me that a particular block near the White House was 'very dangerous'. If I had to go through it, it must be by taxi, not on foot.
Today's level of aircraft safety is an extraordinary achievement.
https://youtu.be/6uGhZyWqhXc
http://geraldo.com/page/willowbrook
WARNING:- The documentary really is absolutely shocking.
Meanwhile the NY Times has looked at early voting patterns in NC and used them to forecast that Clinton will end up 6% ahead.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
Given Trump's sexual misconduct and Hilary's inability to understand the Federal Records Act anything above 2-1 looks like value right now.
It would be a much better option for the US and the planet as well of course...
One of the things we may possibly agree on is your nastiness.
Edit: and she LOL's at it being an 'Ottoman' rolling pin. You really don't know her ...
Jack Posobiec
Hillary has cancelled all campaign events in FL, OH, and NC
Mr. Sandpit, whilst that tallies with BBC radio commentary (some of which was bloody infantile) I'm not sure it's that straightforward. Fortunately, not long to find out (starts at 7pm).
Anyway, now to knock off the pre-qualifying piece.
We have yet to see whether the e-mail stuff shifts the polling (and early voting).
Not sure when Hillary might get busted. Right now, there seems to be scant evidence justifying a trial.
On the plus side, at the moment Mr. Putney's thought of laying Rosberg at 1.33 for top 3 (can't recall if that's qualifying or podium) looks quite good right now.
Many of these individuals have “deep seated fears of a possible Clinton presidency… if Trump were to lose, that could spark God knows what kind of violence or domestic terrorism,” said Heidi Beirich, who heads the SPLC’s Intelligence Project, an initiative which tracks the nation’s hate and hardline anti-government groups.”
(http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/29/oregon-verdict-gives-anti-government-movement-hope.html)
I work in the aviation Insurance industry - I started in 1980 and the changes in safety levels really are amazing.
The snag is that it is now nearly impossible to make the argument that one of these two is not an appalling cretin who should be locked up with a straight face.
One agrees on their moral weakness. Perhaps only Utah can save America from a delinquent president (although I don't know much of the extra Republican candidate there).
John Podesta compares himself to a mobster for his collusion with Politico. #hillarysemail #podestaemails22 https://t.co/acBN8n7CRS
Well, it's a view. Certainly not a universally held one.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-37809819
The FBI have so far found no evidence that anything highly sensitive (as in life threatening) was stolen. However, it should not even be in question especially for someone who trades on her experience and political skill.
While it is of course also possible and indeed entirely fair to argue that Trump's alleged behaviour is orders of magnitude worse, the simple fact remains that there is prima facie evidence to suggest they are both guilty of wilfully breaking the criminal law - which should rule both of them out of being President.
Which brings me back to my original point that they should both withdraw regardless of the damage to Mr Dancer's book. It's not a hope of Trump winning NC and losing everywhere else - it's an urgent need for them both to lose every state.
'64% view Michelle Obama favorably'
http://tinyurl.com/hvvbgd4
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-qualifying-2016.html
In related news, I'm bloody perplexed as to why the visitor numbers are so high. Hundreds every day from a more usual single figures (double at race weekends).
Are you all heavily laying her at a great price?
Besides, I only have two tips that could legitimately be described as long odds, and one of those was back when Brown was PM.
Incidentally the mathematics of this race means that she should still win unless she is actually indicted before polling day which I doubt is even possible given the short time left. But she will be crippled from her first hour in office if this investigation is ongoing, and it may severely damage the down ticket campaign leaving her facing a very hostile congress.
It's a very different role to running for office though, where everything you've ever said and done is analysed critically by opponents, and you're expected to have an opinion on every current issue.
Ditto their Ohio poll, 95% between Trump+5 and Clinton+13.
As you say, let's see how the email news shifts things. Does Abedin resign immediately? Even then there'll be some damage, say 1% maybe costs Clinton her chance in AZ IA OH, if it's 3% then NC NV FL also. There's quite a gap after that though, needs up to a 6% move to take the next states (PA, CO perhaps) ..... which is the point Trump wins.
If it were any candidate other than Hilary, this race would have been over months ago and the most one-sided election since 1936. That we're even discussing a possible Republican victory, and were doing so even before today's events, is an extremely damning comment on her weakness.
There are also some Blogger tools which might help you learn more about the sources of the traffic should you feel inclined to tinker under the hood.
Edited extra bit: referring URLs show a few coming from the PB Vanilla forums and several odd single referral sites (like flowers to Russia).
Edited extra bit 2: looks like almost all (1,200 of about 1,300) are Mac users in the US.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/begins-hillary-lackeys-paint-james-comey-putin-plant/
Just asking for a lawyer friend.
They claim an email is an email from Hilary Clinton and link to it on Wikileaks. A quick look at the sender field shows it comes from a right wing Netherlands crank newsletter that spammed a whole host of email addresses. It wasn't even sent to Clinton never mind sent by her.