politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be double trouble for the markets if Trump does ma
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be double trouble for the markets if Trump does manage to win
At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton is firmly priced-in to be the next President and that might be a reasonable assumption. However, the markets appear to be far too complacent with regards to the risk of Donald Trump becoming President.
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:phew:
on-topic:
Great analysis; minor risk-event. Don't think the in-house circus will understand it though.
:thanks:
Clinton 48 .. Trump 46
https://www.scribd.com/document/329155539/Saguaro-Strategies-General-Election-Survey-October-22-24
Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.
Anyway, we'll see...
Clinton 42 .. Trump 47
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html
(*Ducks*)
.................................................
Quite so. The early voting in the state is presently very good for Clinton. She has also moved resources into the state from Nevada.
POTUS Countdown (24 hr changes)
Sporting Index ECV Mid-Spreads:
Clinton 329 (-2) Trump 207 (+2)
538.com ECV Predictions:
Clinton 328 (-10) Trump 209 (+10)
There's a quick 5% return on backing Iqbal as the highest Bangla 1st innings scorer if anyone wants it?
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270
Thank you for the piece, Adam. Plenty of opportunity for others who whinge about the editorial content or tone of the forum to put up their own contribution.
The prudent trader or punter will have ensured by now they are as green as possible on all outcomes. Nonetheless is the 5/1 a fair reflection of the weight of money in the book on the other runner ? If this were a handicap for 3-y-o of all ages, HRC would be 1/7 or 2/13 to ensure the bookie cops a small profit.
In all honesty, if you think HRC is going to win and you have £70k behind the sofa, there are worse opportunities to make that a quick £77k - it's not like a 3 mile novice chase at Catterick with 18 fences in the way.
State betting, like constituency betting here, is fine if you know what's going on but states are big places and often quite polarised between GOP and Dem counties. The keen observer may see an error in the betting that we can't from 3000+ miles away with only polls and social media to help.
There's plenty of evidence the financial markets will take a hit if Trump prevails - the uncertain or the unexpected tends to do that. Sterling may well strengthen a little against the greenback but the FTSE will follow the DJIA if that takes a tumble as investors get jittery.
Longer term, there are some interesting nuggets in Trump's programme though the devil will be in the detail. Curiously, my sense of him is that behind the bluster, he's less of a conservative and more of a moderate Republican than might be expected. He will need rapidly to find an accommodation with the media though he will have the benefit that large parts of it will be in a state of shock at the outcome.
Well colour me shocked..
Is the UK savings rate so low because people buy this overpriced guff ?
Full video of first focus group of Lab-UKIP switchers now up (90 mins): https://t.co/fpWAwophXl (second to follow soon)
IF (big if!) they can get their sh1t together and stop the infighting for a couple of years.
http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
"We're gonna build an autobahn."
New #AshcroftInAmerica podcast with @JoeNBC, @KSoltisAnderson, @jonathandarman and the voters of Miami and Tampa: https://t.co/bd56JPcRt7
Also worth noting Trump has never led any polls there.
But surely we are living in some parallel multiverse....yesterdays economic news, a slowdown in growth, and the continuation of Nissan- they all seem to be put through the prism of Brexit crapness whereby anything that isn't that crap is viewed as a resounding success for Brexit.
If remain had won I doubt very much we would have all been creaming our undies on slowing growth rates of 0.5%, or Nissans continuation of the NE contract.
Meanwhile the exchange rate is shocking, stagflation is coming, business investment is stalling, the deficit is increasing, the current account increasing....we are eight years from the last economic shock....and after Nissan yesterday we have shown just how open we are to blackmail from industry and the EU because of Brexit.
I don't think we could have picked a worse time to put us through the uncertainty of Brexit....when (not if) the next economic shock hits us....it'll be tough.
Apols: Leo Sayer. Please fill the gaps.
Well everybody knows as Ladbrookes knows,
A bet is only good as you start.
Your number two leaves too early,
But your oppo helps with the start.
You find a nice score and settle right in,
Your bat playing the ball.
But then Mooen has me shuffling along,
And the batting begins to close.
:chorus:
Well I'm a one man Bang
LaDeshi batsman called Tamim.
Is there anybody out there want to lend me a hand
With my one man band.
For too often I've been fighting alone,
Against a bowling attack so thin.
And soon my caps won't be large enough
To stop me twenty-twentying.
So hey there India don't you look so sad
Don't look so ill at ease,
Well I can play for any team you like
To cheer up the life I should lead.
:repeat-chorus:
Corbyn alleged to have told colleagues peerage for Chakrabarti wld get round paying her for anti-semitism inquiry
http://heatst.com/world/jeremy-corbyn-and-shami-chakrabarti-accused-of-massive-stitch-up-over-peerage/
You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly
I'll issue a forecast every few days but it'll not have the bottom of the last two elections.
Here's my latest emission :
Clinton 358 .. Trump 180
http://www.270towin.com/maps/dov9v
https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984
I haven't seen.....but has there been any iPad upgrade this autumn?
I don't think we could have picked a worse time to put us through the uncertainty of Brexit....when (not if) the next economic shock hits us....it'll be tough.
We've learned since Brexit that the EU is a prison and they'll try to make you suffer if you dare to leave. The penalty for apostasy is death. Brussels remains unwaveringly committed to its project of turning Europe into the U.S.E. - whether or not the peoples of Europe want that. If we had voted remain we would have been committing ourselves, unrecoverably, to becoming part of a U.S.E. We saved ourselves at the 11th hour, having been outrageously denied a vote on the core question for 40 years. We may also have saved others by doing so. The EU is failing. Failing badly. We unquestionably made the right call.
http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/10/microsoft-announces-surface-studio-all-in-one-touchscreen-pc/
In the former, the betting markets seemed to be completely out of line with the polling, which had the referendum on a knife-edge. Certainly, those polls that had Remain ahead in the final days after Jo Cox's death tended to do so by more on average than those which had Leave ahead, and there did look to have been a swing back to Remain. Also, undecideds tend to break for the status quo or the safe option. But there were also big questions over how reliable the methodology was for a one-off vote where the turnout was hard to gauge and where there were few analogue polls to learn from. Leave at something like 6/4 on the day would have been much more rational.
In the latter, there were plenty of straws in the wind that the Tories might do well, from the down-survey questions on leadership and economic trustworthiness to the less-than-overwhelming by-election results to the scale of the Tory efforts in the Lib Dem seats (and the scale of the Lib Dem collapse in polling vote share) to the Tories being the 'safe' option.
In the US, Trump is not the safe option, he is behind in the polls, he seems to have a ceiling at 44%, which is too low; his ratings with too many demographics is terrible even given Hillary's own poor ratings; and the pollsters are working with a known quantity so ought to be fairly accurate, and given that the state-level polling broadly matches the picture from the national-level, the likelihood is that it is.
None of which is to say that Trump can't win. It is, however, to say that if the election were held today he wouldn't win.
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