Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
Yes, but that wont happen. The amount of howling from the opposition benches would be too great, 7 Tories would cave and the bill would be lost.
This will be the price of Brexit. Our system of in-work benefits will be complete axed.
I think you would like this to happen. I don't think it will happen, because politics.
It's certainly not going to happen with a majority of 12.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
Not since the early eighties!
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Same principle. The Commission's been regulating intra-EEC/EU trade since the 1950s. Governments can nationalise (or part-own) firms as they see fit as long as they follow the international rules. Banks would be a more recent example as far as the UK goes.
Permission was given to bail out the banks on the basis it was temporary. See the faffing about with Williams and Glynn and generally the government trying to sell off the last vestiges of RBS.
50-3. What horrors are we going to wake up to tomorrow morning?
13 wickets on the first day. Surely this match is going to finish inside 3 days?
If it is the same rate then it will go into the 4th day - with England's last pair at the wicket.
(Of course if it does end on the third day and Bangladesh win by e.g. 2 runs, they will be able to boast that they defeated England within 3 days.)
The rate of fall of wickets usually accelerates though as the pitch deteriorates. I will be up about 7.30 tomorrow. Hope England are still batting. Root or Stokes or Bairstow have to match Tamim. Going to be hard. How much of a lead would England need to be confident? Maybe 75?
The Bangladesh batting has been reminiscent of England 1970s/80s batting. Usually woeful but with some exceptions notable for their rarity.
Usually 100+ is regarded as a potentially winning lead, but so far I don't think we have seen a score of 300 - so 75 sounds about right.
England seem to have the edge on batting in theory with Stokes, Woakes and Moeen / Rashid notionally better than the Bangladesh bowlers.
But a good spinner can go through an English side like a dose of cholera, as our pitches are now usually so uncondusive to spin.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
Yes, but that wont happen. The amount of howling from the opposition benches would be too great, 7 Tories would cave and the bill would be lost.
This will be the price of Brexit. Our system of in-work benefits will be complete axed.
I think you would like this to happen. I don't think it will happen, because politics.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
Anyhow Zac to win looks to me a far more clear cut betting decision than Hillary.
Zac is 26 pts ahead in this poll, Hillary is an average of 6 (Admitedly over a much more massive sample, the chance of a wrong winner election is around 10ish %).
Have the Americans learned yet that fining European companies gigantic amounts is starting to kick off a tit-for-tat fining war?
It actually makes you wonder how the likes of VW has survived with civil lawsuits in the U.S. alone of $16.5 billion having been agreed, with the criminal fines there still to be assessed. Not a good time for VW to be in danger of losing a slug of its lucrative UK business.
Reps appear to have won another day of the Florida early vote since the start of in-person. Up to a 52140 lead in vote by mail, up 5905. In-person the Dem lead grew only 3306, up to 37791. Things will be clearer after Souls to the Polls Sunday.
The 'elephant in the room' is the independents.- with nearly 500,000 of them having voted they could swamp any +- ( republican - democrat) differential
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
Waycist! More virtual signalling. I was WTF x1000.
If it is the same rate then it will go into the 4th day - with England's last pair at the wicket.
(Of course if it does end on the third day and Bangladesh win by e.g. 2 runs, they will be able to boast that they defeated England within 3 days.)
The rate of fall of wickets usually accelerates though as the pitch deteriorates. I will be up about 7.30 tomorrow. Hope England are still batting. Root or Stokes or Bairstow have to match Tamim. Going to be hard. How much of a lead would England need to be confident? Maybe 75?
The Bangladesh batting has been reminiscent of England 1970s/80s batting. Usually woeful but with some exceptions notable for their rarity.
Usually 100+ is regarded as a potentially winning lead, but so far I don't think we have seen a score of 300 - so 75 sounds about right.
England seem to have the edge on batting in theory with Stokes, Woakes and Moeen / Rashid notionally better than the Bangladesh bowlers.
But a good spinner can go through an English side like a dose of cholera, as our pitches are now usually so uncondusive to spin.
In fairness to BD they play very little Test Cricket. The excitement generated by these 2 games might suggest that is a mistake and hopefully other touring teams will give them more games. I agree England bat much deeper and in low scoring games that should give them a particular edge. It's gripping.
Nissan have an assurance we are going into the Single Market (probably in all but name). There will be other sectors and industries given the same assurance.
Hammond will strangle the Hard Brexiteers by building a coalition of wealth and employment behind a Soft Brexit.
I think you are right. Single market by stealth, and they will try and sell some kind of watered down immigration policy as success. That's the way I'd do it anyway.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
Waycist! More virtual signalling. I was WTF x1000.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
Nissan have an assurance we are going into the Single Market (probably in all but name). There will be other sectors and industries given the same assurance.
Hammond will strangle the Hard Brexiteers by building a coalition of wealth and employment behind a Soft Brexit.
I think you are right. Single market by stealth, and they will try and sell some kind of watered down immigration policy as success. That's the way I'd do it anyway.
The government's record of selling watered down immigration policies hasn't been that great recently, if all that is going to be offered is needing a job offer and a bit of tinkering with benefits, they are going to get eaten alive.
Yes, yes I know all about Corbyn, but its a huge gamble, even if Labour dont suddenly come to their senses, its not remotely impossible that Corbyn has some sort of health problem, or decided/is persuaded to step down in favour of a more charismatic leftie.
The Richmond Park poll is probably not very meaningful, although it will put some wind in Zac's sails if he's smart enough not to become complacent.
That's a big assumption.
Have the LDs confirmed Olney yet? Have Labour decided whether or not to run?
I disagree, a 27 pt margin is very meaningful. It means Zac will win.
It depends whether Richmond follows the pattern of Witney. If it does, that brings the LIb Dems close to Zac levels. Three differences from Witney however. There isn't a significant UKIP vote to squeeze in Richmond, which should disfavour the "Conservative". However Zac has two things in his favour: he is a known and popular MP unlike the Cameron replacement. He has ambiguity about whether he actually is a Conservative.
My guess is that Zac will probably win, but on a much closer margin than implied by that poll.
Robert Kimbell Happy #NationalChocolateDay! The UK exported £579.6million worth of chocolate globally in 2015. We're the world #9 exporter of chocolate. https://t.co/uYmg6dKifF
Mr. Trump appears to have lost the support of his biggest donor: himself.
Mr. Trump contributed no cash and just $31,000 worth of rent and staff salaries to his campaign in the first three weeks of October, a fraction of the $2-million-a-month self-funding pace he had set since winning the Republican presidential nomination.
Anyhow Zac to win looks to me a far more clear cut betting decision than Hillary.
Zac is 26 pts ahead in this poll, Hillary is an average of 6 (Admitedly over a much more massive sample, the chance of a wrong winner election is around 10ish %).
Not the most ideal poll (primarily becasue small sample), but it's better than nothing.
Tony Blair suggests a second referendum to reverse Brexit 'catastrophe', as he calls on Remainers to mobilise
Downing Street insisted there would be no second referendum and brushed off concerns about Mr Blair communicating his views with Mr Hollande.
A No 10 spokesman told a Westminster briefing: "Tony Blair is entitled to put his views to whom he so chooses. But what's important is the PM has been absolutely clear - the British people have spoken, we are listening, we're going to leave the European Union.
"And not only has the PM been clear here but she's also been clear when she's met European leaders.
"There will be no second referendum, Britain is leaving the European Union."
Reps appear to have won another day of the Florida early vote since the start of in-person. Up to a 52140 lead in vote by mail, up 5905. In-person the Dem lead grew only 3306, up to 37791. Things will be clearer after Souls to the Polls Sunday.
The 'elephant in the room' is the independents.- with nearly 500,000 of them having voted they could swamp any +- ( republican - democrat) differential
There's a whole herd of elephants in the room. But it does look to me like Dems aren't particularly enthused.
It's the Customs Union that represents the shackles of the EU - the inability to do trade deals elsewhere. If we stay in the CU then we haven't really left the EU in any meaningful way.
You can't have everything, so it's a question of what to prioritise. Staying in the Customs Union but not the Single Market actually looks a rather good option overall:
Advantages:
- No freedom of movement issue - No ECJ issues - None of the political or environmental clap-trap - No CFP - No CAP - Very low contributions to the EU budget - Zero tariffs with the EU (vital for the car industry) - Zero paperwork for our manufacturers trading with the EU (vital for the car industry) - Probably no delays in agreeing trade agreements and WTO rules because these would inherit from the existing EU ones
Disadvantages:
- Couldn't negotiate our own trade deals outside the EU ones - Unclear what the status of the City would be [would require separate agreement].
If you can propose an attainable alternative which is better, I'm sure the PM would like to know hear about it.
Anyhow Zac to win looks to me a far more clear cut betting decision than Hillary.
Zac is 26 pts ahead in this poll, Hillary is an average of 6 (Admitedly over a much more massive sample, the chance of a wrong winner election is around 10ish %).
Not the most ideal poll (primarily becasue small sample), but it's better than nothing.
I'll stick with my original assessment of the odds;
1/3 Zac 3/1 LD's
I'm not sure the small sample is such an issue, it is actually a fair proportion of the population there. In addition Richmond park must have a fairly uniform "A" distribution of socio-economic class, as anyone who lives there has benefitted from huge asset inflation over the years.
I reckon Zac is more like a 1-5 shot with the poll personally.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
Waycist! More virtual signalling. I was WTF x1000.
Do carry on, you are most amusing.
I can see your hands waving from here. Colour me unamused! You are just playing at being a grown up. I'm WTF on steroids.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
America, home to the world's stupidest Illuminati.
Reps appear to have won another day of the Florida early vote since the start of in-person. Up to a 52140 lead in vote by mail, up 5905. In-person the Dem lead grew only 3306, up to 37791. Things will be clearer after Souls to the Polls Sunday.
The 'elephant in the room' is the independents.- with nearly 500,000 of them having voted they could swamp any +- ( republican - democrat) differential
There's a whole herd of elephants in the room. But I does look to me like Dems aren't particularly enthused.
If they can enthuse themselves enough to give Hillary between 250 and 269 electoral college votes I'd be particularly grateful.
Anyhow Zac to win looks to me a far more clear cut betting decision than Hillary.
Zac is 26 pts ahead in this poll, Hillary is an average of 6 (Admitedly over a much more massive sample, the chance of a wrong winner election is around 10ish %).
Looks good for Zac imho. He has drifted down a little on BF since I last looked. At 1.57 now.
Reps appear to have won another day of the Florida early vote since the start of in-person. Up to a 52140 lead in vote by mail, up 5905. In-person the Dem lead grew only 3306, up to 37791. Things will be clearer after Souls to the Polls Sunday.
The 'elephant in the room' is the independents.- with nearly 500,000 of them having voted they could swamp any +- ( republican - democrat) differential
There's a whole herd of elephants in the room. But I does look to me like Dems aren't particularly enthused.
If they can enthuse themselves enough to give Hillary between 250 and 269 electoral college votes I'd be particularly grateful.
If "Europe" has confirmed UK assurances, why hasn't it leaked already?
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Nobody has a clue.
Nobody has a clue, that is about it. It has been fun watching a conspiracy theory actually being developed on here this morning, though.
It's looking a bit close for comfort in the US. Anecdotally I've heard a few people who were in the undecided camp that moved to Clinton have now moved back into undecided territory.
It's looking a bit close for comfort in the US. Anecdotally I've heard a few people who were in the undecided camp that moved to Clinton have now moved back into undecided territory.
Since this is CNN, its impartiality is not under question. Everyone KNOWS it is biased.
There's a short video circulating on Twitter naming and shaming every Hillary media friend with their pix, name and news outlet. It's a total killer reputation wise.
The 4th Estate have shot themselves in their on-screen antics and in Wikileaks. One survey had the US media trust ratings at 6% - before the full bucket of crap was tipped out. A load of people have no reputation to trade on anymore. IIRC it's about 65 well known/big names so far.
I still think Trump will lose. But if the Republicans can find someone who can harness those left behind by globalisation and misunderstood by the Establishment, they could get a landslide.
Reps appear to have won another day of the Florida early vote since the start of in-person. Up to a 52140 lead in vote by mail, up 5905. In-person the Dem lead grew only 3306, up to 37791. Things will be clearer after Souls to the Polls Sunday.
I'm puzzled, because this CNN report, published today, says: Now that in-person early voting is underway, the GOP advantage has been slashed by about two-thirds. They were up by about 18,000 votes earlier this week, but now they lead by only about 6,000 -- or 0.3 percentage points. While they are still leading, they are far behind the advantage of 6.8 points -- almost 73,000 votes -- that they had at this point in 2008. http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/early-voting-update-clinton-trump-election-2016/
That would be good news for Clinton, because in 2008 the Democrats won Florida by 2.8%. But it doesn't seem to tally with the official figures, which apparently show the Republicans still more than 14,000 ahead. On the other hand, that would be only 0.5% of the total, so if CNN's figures for 2008 are right the Republican percentage lead would still be well down on that election.
The report also says the Democrat percentage lead in early voting in North Carolina is down on the 2012 figure for the same time, which is obviously bad news for Clinton. Also that the Democrat percentage lead in Iowa is down on 2012, but only by 2.3 points, which is less than their winning margin of 5.8% in 2012. And similarly the Republican percentage lead in Arizona is down by 6.8 points on 2012, again less than their 2012 winning margin of 9%.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
Yes, but that wont happen. The amount of howling from the opposition benches would be too great, 7 Tories would cave and the bill would be lost.
This will be the price of Brexit. Our system of in-work benefits will be complete axed.
I think you would like this to happen. I don't think it will happen, because politics.
It's certainly not going to happen with a majority of 12.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
Luckily I'd pulled my tinfoil hat over my eyes just in time to not read that, you handwaving MSM shill.
Waycist! More virtual signalling. I was WTF x1000.
Do carry on, you are most amusing.
I can see your hands waving from here. Colour me unamused! You are just playing at being a grown up. I'm WTF on steroids.
No, you're just a passive-agressive subposting twat.
Nissan have an assurance we are going into the Single Market (probably in all but name). There will be other sectors and industries given the same assurance. Hammond will strangle the Hard Brexiteers by building a coalition of wealth and employment behind a Soft Brexit.
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
Comments
Usually 100+ is regarded as a potentially winning lead, but so far I don't think we have seen a score of 300 - so 75 sounds about right.
England seem to have the edge on batting in theory with Stokes, Woakes and Moeen / Rashid notionally better than the Bangladesh bowlers.
But a good spinner can go through an English side like a dose of cholera, as our pitches are now usually so uncondusive to spin.
Zac is 26 pts ahead in this poll, Hillary is an average of 6 (Admitedly over a much more massive sample, the chance of a wrong winner election is around 10ish %).
Not a good time for VW to be in danger of losing a slug of its lucrative UK business.
Yes, yes I know all about Corbyn, but its a huge gamble, even if Labour dont suddenly come to their senses, its not remotely impossible that Corbyn has some sort of health problem, or decided/is persuaded to step down in favour of a more charismatic leftie.
My guess is that Zac will probably win, but on a much closer margin than implied by that poll.
http://us.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/donald-trump-cancel-election/index.html
Robert Kimbell
Happy #NationalChocolateDay! The UK exported £579.6million worth of chocolate globally in 2015. We're the world #9 exporter of chocolate. https://t.co/uYmg6dKifF
Mr. Trump appears to have lost the support of his biggest donor: himself.
Mr. Trump contributed no cash and just $31,000 worth of rent and staff salaries to his campaign in the first three weeks of October, a fraction of the $2-million-a-month self-funding pace he had set since winning the Republican presidential nomination.
What's inside the memo WikiLeaks released on Bill Clinton and Teneo https://t.co/3inTJ3Izan
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
I'll stick with my original assessment of the odds;
1/3 Zac
3/1 LD's
Saguaro Strategies (Arizona) Clinton 48% Trump 46% Johnson 3%
ABC
NEW: Hillary Clinton's lead narrows to four points over Donald Trump in today's @ABC News/WaPo tracking poll: https://t.co/EReaJIcEg8 https://t.co/4DEMDMHKz1
Tony Blair suggests a second referendum to reverse Brexit 'catastrophe', as he calls on Remainers to mobilise
Downing Street insisted there would be no second referendum and brushed off concerns about Mr Blair communicating his views with Mr Hollande.
A No 10 spokesman told a Westminster briefing: "Tony Blair is entitled to put his views to whom he so chooses. But what's important is the PM has been absolutely clear - the British people have spoken, we are listening, we're going to leave the European Union.
"And not only has the PM been clear here but she's also been clear when she's met European leaders.
"There will be no second referendum, Britain is leaving the European Union."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/28/minister-convinced-nissan-to-keep-building-in-uk-with-written-pr/
Advantages:
- No freedom of movement issue
- No ECJ issues
- None of the political or environmental clap-trap
- No CFP
- No CAP
- Very low contributions to the EU budget
- Zero tariffs with the EU (vital for the car industry)
- Zero paperwork for our manufacturers trading with the EU (vital for the car industry)
- Probably no delays in agreeing trade agreements and WTO rules because these would inherit from the existing EU ones
Disadvantages:
- Couldn't negotiate our own trade deals outside the EU ones
- Unclear what the status of the City would be [would require separate agreement].
If you can propose an attainable alternative which is better, I'm sure the PM would like to know hear about it.
I reckon Zac is more like a 1-5 shot with the poll personally.
https://www.wunderground.com/bd/chittagong
https://twitter.com/foxandfriends/status/791964519140499456
https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/791849624382246913
The 4th Estate have shot themselves in their on-screen antics and in Wikileaks. One survey had the US media trust ratings at 6% - before the full bucket of crap was tipped out. A load of people have no reputation to trade on anymore. IIRC it's about 65 well known/big names so far.
I still think Trump will lose. But if the Republicans can find someone who can harness those left behind by globalisation and misunderstood by the Establishment, they could get a landslide.
Anyway, I'm off for a bit.
NEW THREAD
Now that in-person early voting is underway, the GOP advantage has been slashed by about two-thirds. They were up by about 18,000 votes earlier this week, but now they lead by only about 6,000 -- or 0.3 percentage points. While they are still leading, they are far behind the advantage of 6.8 points -- almost 73,000 votes -- that they had at this point in 2008.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/27/politics/early-voting-update-clinton-trump-election-2016/
That would be good news for Clinton, because in 2008 the Democrats won Florida by 2.8%. But it doesn't seem to tally with the official figures, which apparently show the Republicans still more than 14,000 ahead. On the other hand, that would be only 0.5% of the total, so if CNN's figures for 2008 are right the Republican percentage lead would still be well down on that election.
The report also says the Democrat percentage lead in early voting in North Carolina is down on the 2012 figure for the same time, which is obviously bad news for Clinton. Also that the Democrat percentage lead in Iowa is down on 2012, but only by 2.3 points, which is less than their winning margin of 5.8% in 2012. And similarly the Republican percentage lead in Arizona is down by 6.8 points on 2012, again less than their 2012 winning margin of 9%.
Times only one, but that's more than enough.
RELEASE: The Podesta Emails Part 21 #PodestaEmails #PodestaEmails21 #HillaryClinton https://t.co/wzxeh70oUm https://t.co/kkdyFXmTLD
A 2 point shift toward Trump in a day https://t.co/pZEynFiWiG
Falsinator
Latest ABC / WaPo tracking poll has Hillary only +4 with a D+9 sample. SHE IS TOAST: https://t.co/luE0FDUH4m @mitchellvii https://t.co/klorrDD2wQ