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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be double trouble for the markets if Trump does ma

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,116
    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    SS Titanic


    The Brexitania
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Bangladesh showing England they can do collapses too. House of cards.
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,176
    Indigo said:

    geoffw said:

    Indigo said:



    You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly ;)

    Care to elaborate?
    Apple removed the ESC key from the latest MBP line up, one of the most important keys on the keyboard if you are a software developer, one of their most important markets.
    Just that the picture is cut just below where the ESC key is on my MBA keyboard, but it shows a key there for something or other.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    SS The Unsinkable Tony Blair

    should make for fun cruising the Eastern Med.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SS Farmy Farm ?

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935
    Step away for ten minutes and three more wickets fall!! 215/9 now, England huge favourites from here.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Indigo said:

    Apple removed the ESC key from the latest MBP line up, one of the most important keys on the keyboard if you are a software developer, one of their most important markets.

    No, they didn't
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,997
    TGOHF said:

    Blue_rog said:

    I see that all remainers are Blairites now. A leader they'll all be happy to rally round :grin:

    A vote for the LDs in Richmond is a vote for Tony Blair.

    :grin:
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    SOS Coffin Dodger

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/7225643/Baroness-Tonge-fired-over-outburst-against-Israeli-soldiers-in-Haiti.html

    Jenny Tonge would, frankly, be more at home in Corbyn's Labour party than in the Lib Dems. A woman of integrity and principle she is not, IMO.

    Those who wrote vile things to her after the death of her daughter are utter scumbags.
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    SS Wilhelm Gustloff
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    geoffw said:

    Indigo said:

    geoffw said:

    Indigo said:



    You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly ;)

    Care to elaborate?
    Apple removed the ESC key from the latest MBP line up, one of the most important keys on the keyboard if you are a software developer, one of their most important markets.
    Just that the picture is cut just below where the ESC key is on my MBA keyboard, but it shows a key there for something or other.
    The ESC Key now sometimes appears on the TFT touch strip at the top of the screen, the problem I imagine is that the app has to tell the Mac what keys it wants in the strip, and most existing apps wont know how to. See the picture on Apple.

    http://www.apple.com/macbook-pro/
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    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
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    FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited October 2016
    Ishmael_X said:

    When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?

    Visual Interface, as any programmer knows. Before K&R editors were 'difficult'. ;)

    curses.h: Beaten by Indigo! :(
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SkyNewsBreak: Northern Ireland's High Court has rejected claim that NI law means royal prerogative cannot be used to trigger formal process of leaving EU
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    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
    Wouldn't a coke habit be cheaper ?
    We have regular, random drug tests at work, though I do know when they are happening.
    Ah, but more importantly, do you know who's being tested ? *Cough*
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Essexit said:

    We once ran a major public event for young people for a new logo for a youth service.....we had a celebrity and press.... All the better entries had something of Goebbels about them, angular and menacing, so I had to get an artist to do something at the last minute and say he was an 11 year old from Gravesend. Surprisingly he wasn't there to win his prize. The logo still is there.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Northern Ireland's High Court has rejected claim that NI law means royal prerogative cannot be used to trigger formal process of leaving EU

    The expression 'Suck it up, losers' springs to mind...
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    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
    Wouldn't a coke habit be cheaper ?
    We have regular, random drug tests at work, though I do know when they are happening.
    Ah, but more importantly, do you know who's being tested ? *Cough*
    I do. It is remarkable how many people have shy kidneys.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    tyson said:

    Essexit said:

    We once ran a major public event for young people for a new logo for a youth service.....we had a celebrity and press.... All the better entries had something of Goebbels about them, angular and menacing, so I had to get an artist to do something at the last minute and say he was an 11 year old from Gravesend. Surprisingly he wasn't there to win his prize. The logo still is there.
    You could get a job on Blue Peter with that approach.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    edited October 2016
    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935
    All out for 220. Great work from the bowlers today, now let's hope the batsmen can deliver.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503
    Essexit said:
    "Steiner.."
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    Scott_P said:

    @SkyNewsBreak: Northern Ireland's High Court has rejected claim that NI law means royal prerogative cannot be used to trigger formal process of leaving EU

    Shock Horror - NI court rules that NI is part of the UK and that UK decisions get made by UK PM. Can they please tell this to wee Jimmy Krankie!
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    tyson said:

    The Bangers deflating faster than Hillary's poll leads

    All out for 220 - do you think they'll be able to enforce the follow-on later today?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tyson said:

    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    And there are the expats dealing with a 30% increase in living costs (no sympathy at all from the Brexiters)- I could get over 1.43 to the Euro a year ago/ now its down to about 1.08 (on my exchange).

    But surely we are living in some parallel multiverse....yesterdays economic news, a slowdown in growth, and the continuation of Nissan- they all seem to be put through the prism of Brexit crapness whereby anything that isn't that crap is viewed as a resounding success for Brexit.

    If remain had won I doubt very much we would have all been creaming our undies on slowing growth rates of 0.5%, or Nissans continuation of the NE contract.

    Meanwhile the exchange rate is shocking, stagflation is coming, business investment is stalling, the deficit is increasing, the current account increasing....we are eight years from the last economic shock....and after Nissan yesterday we have shown just how open we are to blackmail from industry and the EU because of Brexit.

    I don't think we could have picked a worse time to put us through the uncertainty of Brexit....when (not if) the next economic shock hits us....it'll be tough.
    I think that a little dismal, though agree the supposed Brexit good news is merely bad news that hasn't happened.

    My view is that things are rarely as good as they seem or as bad as they seem, just boringly in the middle.

    By this principle a Wall St crash on a Trump victory would be a buying opportunity, as was Brexit. I made about 20× my Brexit gambling profit by buying back the shares that I had sold pre Brexit. Quite a nice little earner.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    I am a sage 220 all out !!!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    So this is what "take back control" looks like

    @faisalislam: 7/10 Greg Clark, who visited Nissan HQ told me yesterday "its very important that businesses like Nissan help shape our negotiating mandate"

    I for one welcome our new Japanese Automotive overlords...
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935

    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.

    Only two batsmen with more than 13, not a nice scorecard for the Banglas - but let's wait a couple of hours before too much gloating!
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050

    tyson said:

    Essexit said:

    We once ran a major public event for young people for a new logo for a youth service.....we had a celebrity and press.... All the better entries had something of Goebbels about them, angular and menacing, so I had to get an artist to do something at the last minute and say he was an 11 year old from Gravesend. Surprisingly he wasn't there to win his prize. The logo still is there.
    You could get a job on Blue Peter with that approach.
    I always thought I should send something into "Take Hart"....I was so rubbish at drawing, I though as a 12 year old I could pass off something as maybe a three year old.

    A trip down memory line. That music makes me want to cry......and I cannot help think of Christopher Walken blowing his brains out.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dP1V_acXqY
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,050
    Poor old Banglas (sorry I've been calling them Bangers)...put to the sword....Oh well we will soon enough feel what that is like with our Brexit negotiations.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    edited October 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.

    Only two batsmen with more than 13, not a nice scorecard for the Banglas - but let's wait a couple of hours before too much gloating!
    As someone who started following the England cricket team since 1990, I know it is wise never wise to gloat.

    I remember 46 all out when we had dominated a test match.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?
    If you use vi - which is an old-school text editor that wires your brain directly to the document you're editing - there are two different modes of operation, and you use ESC a lot to switch between them.

    However, ESC is a little bit far away, so it might be better to remap this to another key that you don't use much. I take it Apple haven't removed the Windows key?
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,448
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



    Oh come on Jack he does have Rudy and Newt. He also has Christie if he's still pulling his weight...
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    Essexit said:
    RMS Lawrence Dallaglio

    Forget any Italian roots: 100% English! :)
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935
    weejonnie said:

    tyson said:

    The Bangers deflating faster than Hillary's poll leads

    All out for 220 - do you think they'll be able to enforce the follow-on later today?
    I'm not usually particularly hawkish when it comes to England's batting, but I think I can say with certainty that we won't be following on today!
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,448
    That there illustrates Trumps problems, time spent in AZ is time you don't have to expand the map.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Alex Wickham
    Leaked documents show how Baroness Scotland waived procurement practices to hire a close friend on £30,000-per-month https://t.co/2CY03oZpV9 https://t.co/w4ofthpMFh
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935

    Sandpit said:

    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.

    Only two batsmen with more than 13, not a nice scorecard for the Banglas - but let's wait a couple of hours before too much gloating!
    As someone who started following the England cricket team since 1990, I know it is wise never wise to gloat.

    I remember 46 all out when we had dominated a test match.
    Yes, don't remind me of '90s English cricket!! It was 2005 before we really found our mojo.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



    Obama and Clinton rushing to support Clinton in supposedly 'safe' states (according to 619). Do they know something we don't?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Nothing quite like solving a baffling, weird, tiny but irksome technical problem only for one more to crop up.

    It's not too serious but it's just bloody irksome. Humbug!
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited October 2016

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    Twitter seems caught between Cruisy McCruiseface and Shippy McShipface.

    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.

    Only two batsmen with more than 13, not a nice scorecard for the Banglas - but let's wait a couple of hours before too much gloating!
    As someone who started following the England cricket team since 1990, I know it is wise never wise to gloat.

    I remember 46 all out when we had dominated a test match.
    Yes, don't remind me of '90s English cricket!! It was 2005 before we really found our mojo.
    I became a cricket fan and a Tory in the 90s, you can't call me a glory hunter, apart from 1992 it was a grim time until 2005 when we won The Ashes and David Cameron became Tory leader.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935
    As we were saying, the nice Mr Duckett gets an early bath.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sandpit said:

    weejonnie said:

    tyson said:

    The Bangers deflating faster than Hillary's poll leads

    All out for 220 - do you think they'll be able to enforce the follow-on later today?
    I'm not usually particularly hawkish when it comes to England's batting, but I think I can say with certainty that we won't be following on today!
    One down - only 9 to go.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,041
    Sandpit said:

    As we were saying, the nice Mr Duckett gets an early bath.

    6 and out?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.

    Only two batsmen with more than 13, not a nice scorecard for the Banglas - but let's wait a couple of hours before too much gloating!
    As someone who started following the England cricket team since 1990, I know it is wise never wise to gloat.

    I remember 46 all out when we had dominated a test match.
    Yes, don't remind me of '90s English cricket!! It was 2005 before we really found our mojo.
    And if there had been DRS then, we might not have won that series. Kasprowicz shouldn't have been given out...
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Scott_P said:

    So this is what "take back control" looks like

    @faisalislam: 7/10 Greg Clark, who visited Nissan HQ told me yesterday "its very important that businesses like Nissan help shape our negotiating mandate"

    I for one welcome our new Japanese Automotive overlords...

    Nissan = a zaibatsu (a word I know from William Gibson). Cf the line in Neuromancer about "nations so backward that they still took the concept of nationhood seriously".
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    Twitter seems caught between Cruisy McCruiseface and Shippy McShipface.

    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.
    Sounds like Unimaginative McUnimaginativeFace twatterers.

    SS Prison Ship is my suggestion.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    So this is what "take back control" looks like

    @faisalislam: 7/10 Greg Clark, who visited Nissan HQ told me yesterday "its very important that businesses like Nissan help shape our negotiating mandate"

    I for one welcome our new Japanese Automotive overlords...

    So you're just like Mrs Thatcher then
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    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Bangladesh lost 9 for 49, that scorecard looks like when Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis were at their pomp according to Derek Pringle.

    Only two batsmen with more than 13, not a nice scorecard for the Banglas - but let's wait a couple of hours before too much gloating!
    As someone who started following the England cricket team since 1990, I know it is wise never wise to gloat.

    I remember 46 all out when we had dominated a test match.
    Yes, don't remind me of '90s English cricket!! It was 2005 before we really found our mojo.
    And if there had been DRS then, we might not have won that series. Kasprowicz shouldn't have been given out...
    Doesn't work like that though, KP was given out incorrectly in the second innings, and with DRS he might have gone on an scored a double century.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



    Obama and Clinton rushing to support Clinton in supposedly 'safe' states (according to 619). Do they know something we don't?
    I think you failed to understand my post. An oversight on your part I'm sure.

    Is Trump off to Arizona tomorrow to support John McCain. Over the past few days was Pence in Utah and Omaha taking the air .... :smile:
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



    Oh come on Jack he does have Rudy and Newt. He also has Christie if he's still pulling his weight...
    Well he does have Melania and Ivanka.....
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935
    edited October 2016

    Sandpit said:

    As we were saying, the nice Mr Duckett gets an early bath.

    6 and out?
    Seven and out, from 5 balls! FoW 10/1.

    First target achieved, at 20/1 we won't be following on!
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676
    nunu said:

    ToryJim said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



    Oh come on Jack he does have Rudy and Newt. He also has Christie if he's still pulling his weight...
    Well he does have Melania and Ivanka.....
    And Farage.
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    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953
    Keen on Blair now he is set for a humiliating return as a Remainer, are we?

    Seriously - he hasn't ever been this far removed from popular consciousness. Any such party would be hammered....

    We're leaving. People like Blair should be trying to avoid attention at the moment, given his policies are a huge cause of the anti-EU grievance....
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151
    edited October 2016
    On topic, the interesting thing about currency effects is that they should mess with the odds when you're betting in the currency in question.

    Suppose Mark Carney wanted to do huge-scale helicopter money that would halve the value of the pound, but Theresa May thought it was a bad idea, so they agreed to toss a coin. Normally you'd expect the markets on a coin toss to be evens, showing a 50/50 probability. But if you bet in pounds, your winnings if Carney wins the toss would be worth only half as much (denominated in hard currency, like MacBooks) as your winnings if May wins, so you should require much better odds than evens to bet on Carney.

    The upshot is that if Trump is very bad for the dollar, USD markets should appear to overestimate the likelihood of him winning, and that overestimate shouldn't be there in the GBP markets. We saw this in the opposite direction in the Brexit odds, meaning that the UK markets actually represented a higher probability of Brexit than people were claiming.

    I don't think we're seeing this divergence? If I'm right then the markets don't expect Trump to represent a Brexit-style apocalypse for the US dollar.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    Twitter seems caught between Cruisy McCruiseface and Shippy McShipface.

    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.
    Sounds like Unimaginative McUnimaginativeFace twatterers.

    SS Prison Ship is my suggestion.
    General Belgrano 2 is my little contribution. Ideal for cruising the Southern Ocean...
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    Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    edited October 2016
    Watching Trump rallies in Ohio this week, I'm reminded why they're held a lot in schools, factories, college towns, etc. Better a hostage crowd of kids or employees than people with lots of free time on a Thursday afternoon.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    Twitter seems caught between Cruisy McCruiseface and Shippy McShipface.

    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.
    Sounds like Unimaginative McUnimaginativeFace twatterers.

    SS Prison Ship is my suggestion.
    SS Harambe
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    ToryJim said:

    That there illustrates Trumps problems, time spent in AZ is time you don't have to expand the map.
    Ditto with his day spent in Washington two days ago.

    I didn't say I thought PA was safe, just that its more than likely going to Clinton. Also, helps the senate race!
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935
    Capt'n Cook next for the early bath. 24/2, this isn't over.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,291

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Brilliantly cunning except the people out there doing the negotiation are Boris, Davis and Fox.
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    Sandpit said:

    Capt'n Cook next for the early bath. 24/2, this isn't over.

    We've got lots of Yorkshire batting in this team. Keep calm.
  • Options

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Brilliantly cunning except the people out there doing the negotiation are Boris, Davis and Fox.
    This deal was done by Greg Clark and Phil Hammond.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,935

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    It's the Customs Union that represents the shackles of the EU - the inability to do trade deals elsewhere. If we stay in the CU then we haven't really left the EU in any meaningful way.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Are the lizard people facilitating the negotiations ?

    Wibble.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,953

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Sounds like wishful thinking there TSE.

    I think it is much more likely we'll get a free-trade-in-goods deal, with some fudge on services - especially for banking.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?
    It's used in the maths program Mathematica to give letters from the Greek alphabet, e.g. Esc,a,Esc for α, and some other characters.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Essexit said:

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    Twitter seems caught between Cruisy McCruiseface and Shippy McShipface.

    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.
    Sounds like Unimaginative McUnimaginativeFace twatterers.

    SS Prison Ship is my suggestion.
    SS Harambe
    Costa Discordia
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/791941006375555073
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Anorak said:



    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.

    Are we really going to be bombing and sinking it in La Rochelle?

    The Margaret Thatcher would be a great choice. The ships not for turning....

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,000
    Just seen a spot of Blair on Sky News.

    "We are the insurgents now."

    Yes, Blair. Against democracy.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sandpit said:

    It's the Customs Union that represents the shackles of the EU - the inability to do trade deals elsewhere. If we stay in the CU then we haven't really left the EU in any meaningful way.

    Buy shares in Betrayal...
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Looks like the manufacturers get to march with Tezza

    if only George could have done it
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,978
    Dromedary said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?
    It's used in the maths program Mathematica to give letters from the Greek alphabet, e.g. Esc,a,Esc for α, and some other characters.
    I remove the windows key from every keyboard I buy.

    Anyone else do that ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,556
    edited October 2016
    BMG POLL

    Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.

    The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/zac-goldsmith-vote-for-me-to-fight-new-heathrow-runway-a3381176.html
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Looks like the manufacturers get to march with Tezza

    ... all the way to Brussels.

    Huzzah! Take Back Control!
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763

    Just seen a spot of Blair on Sky News.

    "We are the insurgents now."

    Yes, Blair. Against democracy.

    If Blairs for it vote against it, Faustian bargains never work out well
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,503

    Anorak said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Essexit said:
    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
    Boozer McCruiser.
    Twitter seems caught between Cruisy McCruiseface and Shippy McShipface.

    I'd go for Das Boot to wind up the brexiteers. Or the Margaret Thatcher just to watch half the internet explode.
    Sounds like Unimaginative McUnimaginativeFace twatterers.

    SS Prison Ship is my suggestion.
    General Belgrano 2 is my little contribution. Ideal for cruising the Southern Ocean...
    'Gotcha!'

    ?
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    Looks like the manufacturers get to march with Tezza

    ... all the way to Brussels.

    Huzzah! Take Back Control!
    you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,770
    edited October 2016

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    There is little doubt there will be a free trade agreement on automotive industry. The Nissan deal is the other side of the coin from "Germany wants to sell us all those cars". The big question marks are over services, especially finance, which are Britain's USP, and agriculture, which is always an intractable trade issue.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Trump today, 28 Oct (2012 results in brackets):
    NH (6% D)
    ME (15% D)
    IA (6% D)

    And 29 Oct:
    CO (5% D)
    AZ (9% R)

    Pence today:
    PA (5% D)
    NC (2% D)

    And 29 Oct:
    NC (2% D)
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
    Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
    Indeed.

    Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.

    Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore

    Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.



    Obama and Clinton rushing to support Clinton in supposedly 'safe' states (according to 619). Do they know something we don't?
    Senate races.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.

    The question is, and has always been, what measure of control on EU migration the government can achieve within the single market. I'm going for "not very much". I think by the end of 2020 we won't have tax credits and benefits will be paid on a contributory basis which will stem the flow of part time Romanian "self employed workers".

    I also think over the longer term education reforms will mean a much less flexible labour market like Germany or Switzerland. That means the UK labour market will be a more like a closed shop with young people requiring qualifications to do almost anything, those without will need equivalence certification which will result in fewer arrivals.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,676

    BMG POLL

    Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.

    The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/zac-goldsmith-vote-for-me-to-fight-new-heathrow-runway-a3381176.html

    Looks like the nice people of Richmond have come to their senses and are now supporting the Brexit candidate.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    BMG POLL

    Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.

    The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/zac-goldsmith-vote-for-me-to-fight-new-heathrow-runway-a3381176.html

    LDs winning here.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,978

    BMG POLL

    Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.

    The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/zac-goldsmith-vote-for-me-to-fight-new-heathrow-runway-a3381176.html

    Zac still at 1.83 on Betfair. Looks like a monster price to me.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has

    Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...

    Oh.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,535
    edited October 2016
    Mortimer said:

    Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.

    Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.

    Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.

    Sounds like wishful thinking there TSE.

    I think it is much more likely we'll get a free-trade-in-goods deal, with some fudge on services - especially for banking.
    I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.

    At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...

    "UK government promises *on it's own*"

    This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.

    Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.

    ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
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    Bar charts in the Richmond Park by election


    https://twitter.com/0llieLee/status/791236385994932224
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,610

    BMG POLL

    Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.

    The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/zac-goldsmith-vote-for-me-to-fight-new-heathrow-runway-a3381176.html

    Very popular locally. Farron should have been running expectations management and talking down Lib Dem chances.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:

    Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.

    Norway is not a major part of the automotive supply chain, which is predicated on the customs union.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scott_P said:

    you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has

    Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...

    Oh.
    there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?

This discussion has been closed.