Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.
The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.
This article highlights an interesting point about the US Republican Party. It has mutated several times over the one hundred and fifty years since Abraham Lincoln. Its one constant was as the representative of American Capitalism. With this election that is no longer true.
The idea that Germany and France will permit any trade tariffs is absolutely ludicrous.
The deal will be
* free trade as now (which Germany and France will want) * Uk gets some restrictions on free movement of people but probably some special rights for EU citizens in the Uk and vice versa. Existing EU citizens in Uk untroubled. * Uk continues to pay for next X years tapering down perhaps to a certain level for the rest of days. * Uk has ability to make its own trade deals.
The argument whether this is hard or soft is I guess up for grabs.
Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
Bill Clinton making three speeches in Pennsylvania today.
Indeed.
Hillary has the nice problem of an indulgence of high profile surrogates and states to put them in supporting not only her campaign but down ballot race too as in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
Clinton has - Bill .. POTUS .. Michelle .. Keane .. Biden .. Chelsea .. Sanders .. Warren .. Gore
Trump has the missus (infrequently) and Pence. Most of the other GOP leaders aren't touching Donald with a barge poll.
Obama and Clinton rushing to support Clinton in supposedly 'safe' states (according to 619). Do they know something we don't?
Senate races.
Indeed. Winning the White House is only winning about 25% of the available power. Harnessing that to congress on the other hand makes for a mighty machine.
Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.
The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.
Zac still at 1.83 on Betfair. Looks like a monster price to me.
And Shadsy is offering 2.63 on Zac's majority being 2.5k plus
Aye, Looks like a walk in the (Richmond) Park to me.
UKIP whilst being poor PR for Zac nationally not standing mathematically simply MUST improve his chances by not standing too. Labour standing scuppers Olney.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
It's the Customs Union that represents the shackles of the EU - the inability to do trade deals elsewhere. If we stay in the CU then we haven't really left the EU in any meaningful way.
On the plus side if we stay in the customs union it instantly renders Liam Fox impotent.
I think staying in the single market and leaving customs union would be better than the other way around. Staying in single market (pleasing remainers/soft brexiteers) but being able to negotiate our own trade deals (pleasing the 'let's deal with australia' leavers) could be a good outcome for majority of population (at the expense of the 'control immigration' leavers).
Staying in the customs union but not the single market, would be unpopular with all groups except the anti-immigration leavers, who are definitely not a majority.
Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.
Norway is not a major part of the automotive supply chain, which is predicated on the customs union.
Award for idiot of the day, probably for three years running goes to you. Goods originating in Norway are not subject to customs controls because Norway uses single market goods standards. Only goods which are imported from outside of the EEA and then exported into the EU customs union are required to clear customs control.
The idea that Germany and France will permit any trade tariffs is absolutely ludicrous.
The deal will be
* free trade as now (which Germany and France will want) * Uk gets some restrictions on free movement of people but probably some special rights for EU citizens in the Uk and vice versa. Existing EU citizens in Uk untroubled. * Uk continues to pay for next X years tapering down perhaps to a certain level for the rest of days. * Uk has ability to make its own trade deals.
The argument whether this is hard or soft is I guess up for grabs.
or a rather pointless argument, since neither side will get everything and we'll end up with a pragmatic compromise.
Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.
The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.
Very popular locally. Farron should have been running expectations management and talking down Lib Dem chances.
No, they should be trying to win the seat, and talking up their chances is an important part of that, especially with a Lab/Green vote to squeeze. The cost to the LibDems of talking up their chances then losing is minimal; The pre-election publicity may even be helpful, even if it ends in disappointment. A win would be quite a big boost.
Very popular locally. Farron should have been running expectations management and talking down Lib Dem chances.
No, they should be trying to win the seat, and talking up their chances is an important part of that, especially with a Lab/Green vote to squeeze. The cost to the LibDems of talking up their chances then losing is minimal; The pre-election publicity may even be helpful, even if it ends in disappointment. A win would be quite a big boost.
Coming third, which is definitely possible if Zac is heading for a 10k majority would be a huge setback after a decent showing in Oxfordshire.
By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)
No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?
It's used in the maths program Mathematica to give letters from the Greek alphabet, e.g. Esc,a,Esc for α, and some other characters.
I remove the windows key from every keyboard I buy.
Anyone else do that ?
The Model M never came with one in the first place
Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.
Norway is not a major part of the automotive supply chain, which is predicated on the customs union.
Award for idiot of the day, probably for three years running goes to you. Goods originating in Norway are not subject to customs controls because Norway uses single market goods standards. Only goods which are imported from outside of the EEA and then exported into the EU customs union are required to clear customs control.
Bit vicious comrade....early this morning we had one of our 50 year old posters bragging about having sex with a 21 year old girl. I think you'd have to go a fair way to out idiot that to be honest.
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
Very popular locally. Farron should have been running expectations management and talking down Lib Dem chances.
No, they should be trying to win the seat, and talking up their chances is an important part of that, especially with a Lab/Green vote to squeeze. The cost to the LibDems of talking up their chances then losing is minimal; The pre-election publicity may even be helpful, even if it ends in disappointment. A win would be quite a big boost.
Coming third, which is definitely possible if Zac is heading for a 10k majority would be a huge setback after a decent showing in Oxfordshire.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
Very popular locally. Farron should have been running expectations management and talking down Lib Dem chances.
No, they should be trying to win the seat, and talking up their chances is an important part of that, especially with a Lab/Green vote to squeeze. The cost to the LibDems of talking up their chances then losing is minimal; The pre-election publicity may even be helpful, even if it ends in disappointment. A win would be quite a big boost.
Coming third, which is definitely possible if Zac is heading for a 10k majority would be a huge setback after a decent showing in Oxfordshire.
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
Not really, against Comrade Corbyn she'll win a fairly large majority whatever happens with Brexit.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.
Norway is not a major part of the automotive supply chain, which is predicated on the customs union.
Award for idiot of the day, probably for three years running goes to you. Goods originating in Norway are not subject to customs controls because Norway uses single market goods standards. Only goods which are imported from outside of the EEA and then exported into the EU customs union are required to clear customs control.
That's not quite true. Goods originating in Norway are subject to customs controls, but will be free of tariffs if they meet the local content thresholds. International supply chains mean that goods are rarely 100% of local origin.
An article I read somewhere suggested the cost of complying with the customs regulations on average comes to 3% to 4% of the value of the goods exported, in addition to any applicable duties. I can't vouch for those figures but they are significant on low margin products.
PS I should add if Norway were a member of the EU Customs Union its exported goods would no longer be subject to customs controls.
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
RBS have racked up so many losses even The Donald must envy their ability to avoid taxes.
Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.
Norway is not a major part of the automotive supply chain, which is predicated on the customs union.
Award for idiot of the day, probably for three years running goes to you. Goods originating in Norway are not subject to customs controls because Norway uses single market goods standards. Only goods which are imported from outside of the EEA and then exported into the EU customs union are required to clear customs control.
That's not quite true. Goods originating in Norway are subject to customs controls, but will be free of tariffs if they meet the local content thresholds. International supply chains mean that goods are rarely 100% of local origin.
An article I read somewhere suggested the cost of complying with the customs regulations on average comes to 3% to 4% of the value of the goods exported, in addition to any applicable duties. I can't vouch for those figures but they are significant on low margin products.
For goods not originating in Norway (and Switzerland) the customs clearance is done on arrival into Europe. Controversially, the EU collects Switzerland's customs tariffs and keeps them which allows Switzerland to maintain the façade that they don't pay for EU membership.
Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.
The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.
Remember, this is a contest the LibDems just HAVE to win - OGH.
I sounds as if the anti-runway sentiment is dominating the by-election in the mind of the voters.
Those from outside the area, and those who are pro 3rd runway, perhaps do not understand the depth of feeling on this.
The Heathrow owners have consistently and brazenly lied about their expansion plans since Heathrow was created. They have a staggering negatives in the area. Their heavy handed behavior towards those dissenting against expansion in the past has not helped either.
No, I'm not talking about the kind of people who sit down in front of bulldozers - people who wrote polite, intelligent letters to politicians were targeted - labelled as dangerous extremists, letters written to employers etc.... Games like the noise tests that involved landing empty planes with less than minimum reserve fuel have not helped either.
It is locally assumed that the 3rd runway is just the next phase in the eternal expansion of Heathrow. Zac winning would be seen a blow and part of the continued fight - it would also strengthen the block of other west london MPs opposing expansion.
The idea that Zac resigning as promised would be in any way negative is a complete non-starter.
Full disclosure, Ollie's a member of the Richmond Park Labour party
Very good, but they're making the schoolboy error of starting the scales at zero. The second one needs to start from 10% and the third one from 14% if they really want to emulate the best dodgy LD bar charts!
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
Not really, against Comrade Corbyn she'll win a fairly large majority whatever happens with Brexit.
Remembering: Risk = Probability x Cost
With Corbyn the first coefficient is quite low, but the later remarkably high.
Very popular locally. Farron should have been running expectations management and talking down Lib Dem chances.
No, they should be trying to win the seat, and talking up their chances is an important part of that, especially with a Lab/Green vote to squeeze. The cost to the LibDems of talking up their chances then losing is minimal; The pre-election publicity may even be helpful, even if it ends in disappointment. A win would be quite a big boost.
Coming third, which is definitely possible if Zac is heading for a 10k majority would be a huge setback after a decent showing in Oxfordshire.
Highly unlikely if Labour isn't going to really try. Again.
But Lab has finished 2nd in four of the last six GEs in Richmond Park or its direct predecessors, including the last one, so there's no reason they shouldn't give it a go.
Zac Goldsmith today urged voters to send a message to Theresa May and help him fight a third runway at Heathrow— as the first poll in the Richmond Park by-election showed him clear favourite to win.
The former Tory MP would be re-elected with a majority of more than 10,000 if the vote were held now, according to the exclusive BMG Research survey for the Standard.
Remember, this is a contest the LibDems just HAVE to win - OGH.
I sounds as if the anti-runway sentiment is dominating the by-election in the mind of the voters.
Those from outside the area, and those who are pro 3rd runway, perhaps do not understand the depth of feeling on this.
The Heathrow owners have consistently and brazenly lied about their expansion plans since Heathrow was created. They have a staggering negatives in the area. Their heavy handed behavior towards those dissenting against expansion in the past has not helped either.
No, I'm not talking about the kind of people who sit down in front of bulldozers - people who wrote polite, intelligent letters to politicians were targeted - labelled as dangerous extremists, letters written to employers etc.... Games like the noise tests that involved landing empty planes with less than minimum reserve fuel have not helped either.
It is locally assumed that the 3rd runway is just the next phase in the eternal expansion of Heathrow. Zac winning would be seen a blow and part of the continued fight - it would also strengthen the block of other west london MPs opposing expansion.
The idea that Zac resigning as promised would be in any way negative is a complete non-starter.
The bigger risk is that the pro-Zac campaign will send people to sleep, no?
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
RBS have racked up so many losses even The Donald must envy their ability to avoid taxes.
One other thing I forgot to mention, the Yanks are going thump RBS as they have Deutche Bank. If that happens then I expect the taxpayers will be giving RBS another bung because HMG will not allow it to go under.
Hillary supporter Robert Dougherty from Jacksonville, North Carolina bragged on Facebook today about how he committed voter fraud.
Robert boasted on how he voted for some of his Facebook friends using their identities, and tells them not to worry about voting, because he’s already done it for them.
And he’s bragging about it on Facebook.
Robert boasts about how they give you a sticker every time you vote. He says he will continue to vote all next week!
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
My point still stands I think - the UK position on it's own would not be enough. Nissan must have information directly from the EU or indirectly (through the UK government) that, *combined* with what the UK government position said/did, gives them the confidence that they have displayed.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
RBS have racked up so many losses even The Donald must envy their ability to avoid taxes.
One other thing I forgot to mention, the Yanks are going thump RBS as they have Deutche Bank. If that happens then I expect the taxpayers will be giving RBS another bung because HMG will not allow it to go under.
you dont mean to say those car makers who actually pay taxes in this country might end up having to subsidise bankers ?
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
My point still stands I think - the UK position on it's own would not be enough. Nissan must have information directly from the EU or indirectly (through the UK government) that, *combined* with what the UK government position said/did, gives them the confidence that they have displayed.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
the french government holds 20% of Renault which in turn owns 43% of Nissan. I suspect Nissan arent lacking in government information
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
RBS have racked up so many losses even The Donald must envy their ability to avoid taxes.
One other thing I forgot to mention, the Yanks are going thump RBS as they have Deutche Bank. If that happens then I expect the taxpayers will be giving RBS another bung because HMG will not allow it to go under.
A good amount of fines are priced in already to the share price.
you never did have a plan to rebalance the economy bar sound bites, looks like Mrs May has
Give tax receipts from bankers to foreign car makers? Works great until the bankers tax receipts dry up...
Oh.
there's just the little matter of that £1 trillion support the bankers needed from us, have they stopped using it yet ?
Morning, Mr. B., have you seen the article on RBS in this morning's Telegraph. Makes for fun reading. Not only did they make a loss in their last financial year, they are also not going to be able to flog off William & Glynns in time to meet the EU mandated deadline of December 2017. If they don't then the EU can appoint a commissioner to take charge of divestment and he/she can flog it for whatever price they like to whoever they like. I can see that going down well.
RBS have racked up so many losses even The Donald must envy their ability to avoid taxes.
One other thing I forgot to mention, the Yanks are going thump RBS as they have Deutche Bank. If that happens then I expect the taxpayers will be giving RBS another bung because HMG will not allow it to go under.
A good amount of fines are priced in already to the share price.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Hillary supporter Robert Dougherty from Jacksonville, North Carolina bragged on Facebook today about how he committed voter fraud.
Robert boasted on how he voted for some of his Facebook friends using their identities, and tells them not to worry about voting, because he’s already done it for them.
And he’s bragging about it on Facebook.
Robert boasts about how they give you a sticker every time you vote. He says he will continue to vote all next week!
Child's play.
No ID required to vote at ballot box: California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C.
Single market yes, customs union probably not. Remember that goods originating from Norway are not subject to customs control despite Norway not being in the customs union.
Norway is not a major part of the automotive supply chain, which is predicated on the customs union.
Award for idiot of the day, probably for three years running goes to you. Goods originating in Norway are not subject to customs controls because Norway uses single market goods standards. Only goods which are imported from outside of the EEA and then exported into the EU customs union are required to clear customs control.
Did you just called someone an idiot because you thought they were incorrect about the finer points of Norwegian customs regulations?
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way we were allowed to own a significant stake in their Royal Mail etc there was no rule against that to my knowledge.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
It's the Customs Union that represents the shackles of the EU - the inability to do trade deals elsewhere. If we stay in the CU then we haven't really left the EU in any meaningful way.
On the plus side if we stay in the customs union it instantly renders Liam Fox impotent.
I'm not sure whether the image of an impotent or 'potent' Liam Fox is more likely to make me want to poke out my mind's eye with a pointy stick.
My only worry is that the LDs dump Olney and parachute in Cable which still may happen. If it does then the contest becomes Ali vs Frasier.
Why would Tim Farron want a schemer like Vince Cable back in the Parliamentary Party? He'd be forever having to look over his shoulder - or waiting on some "independent" polling to come out showing how shit was at being LibDem leader.....
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
My point still stands I think - the UK position on it's own would not be enough. Nissan must have information directly from the EU or indirectly (through the UK government) that, *combined* with what the UK government position said/did, gives them the confidence that they have displayed.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Who would give that assurance? The EU Commission? They are civil servants and don't have the say so. National governments? Germany might. They have an important industry to protect. France will be cognisant of the several Renault factories that in competition for models that are currently produced in Sunderland.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
EU rules are advisory for the French, whereas we'll stick to every i dotted and t crossed.
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
My point still stands I think - the UK position on it's own would not be enough. Nissan must have information directly from the EU or indirectly (through the UK government) that, *combined* with what the UK government position said/did, gives them the confidence that they have displayed.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
the french government holds 20% of Renault which in turn owns 43% of Nissan. I suspect Nissan arent lacking in government information
Thank you for that information. Given the way the French government works - I can't imagine that Nissan were not told about the French position on Brexit & probably informed as to the German position (by the French government), and the position that the other EU members will accept.
It just makes more and more sense - May gave them a UK position which was aligned (enough) with the main EU countries positions. This meant that what she was offering/planning was actually possible/plausible
Hillary supporter Robert Dougherty from Jacksonville, North Carolina bragged on Facebook today about how he committed voter fraud.
Robert boasted on how he voted for some of his Facebook friends using their identities, and tells them not to worry about voting, because he’s already done it for them.
And he’s bragging about it on Facebook.
Robert boasts about how they give you a sticker every time you vote. He says he will continue to vote all next week!
Child's play.
No ID required to vote at ballot box: California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C.
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
My point still stands I think - the UK position on it's own would not be enough. Nissan must have information directly from the EU or indirectly (through the UK government) that, *combined* with what the UK government position said/did, gives them the confidence that they have displayed.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Who would give that assurance? The EU Commission? They are civil servants and don't have the say so. National governments? Germany might. They have an important industry to protect. France will be cognisant of the several Renault factories that in competition for models that are currently produced in Sunderland.
See the other comment where -
Alanbrooke said: "the french government holds 20% of Renault which in turn owns 43% of Nissan. I suspect Nissan arent lacking in government information"
That means that Nissan will be in the loop for the French government and probably informed on the German government position as well - via the French government.
I think the most important bit of the Nissan 'deal' has been missed.
At this point, the trade situation between Europe and the UK after Brexit is in flux. No matter what the UK government promises *on it's own*, it would virtually impossible to give assurances to keep Nissan happy. Even promised to pay all import duties in the EU wouldn't do that...
"UK government promises *on it's own*"
This strongly suggests to me that as part of the pre-negotiation negotiations between the UK and the EU, some kind of basis for an agreement has been sketched out.
Something that the UK government was given permission to show to third parties such as Nissan, in confidence. There would have had to have been permission - otherwise such a disclosure would have killed the pre-negotiation negotiations.
ADDED - Thinking about it, it is extremely probable that Nissan has also been sitting down with the EU side directly. So their happiness is a function of what they heard from the EU + the UK.
There is no-one from the EU side able to offer any kind of "makings of a deal". The various EU parties have agendas, which will be worked out between them in horsetrading, that in itself will be in response to the UK demands. At best the UK government could aggregate those agendas as they understand them and reveal to Nissan the UK's negotiating position based on them.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
My point still stands I think - the UK position on it's own would not be enough. Nissan must have information directly from the EU or indirectly (through the UK government) that, *combined* with what the UK government position said/did, gives them the confidence that they have displayed.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Who would give that assurance? The EU Commission? They are civil servants and don't have the say so. National governments? Germany might. They have an important industry to protect. France will be cognisant of the several Renault factories that in competition for models that are currently produced in Sunderland.
If "Europe" has confirmed UK assurances, why hasn't it leaked already?
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Full disclosure, Ollie's a member of the Richmond Park Labour party
Very good, but they're making the schoolboy error of starting the scales at zero. The second one needs to start from 10% and the third one from 14% if they really want to emulate the best dodgy LD bar charts!
I think it is the difficulty fitting the 7%, 10% and 12% in the bars so they are readable.
Of course any true Lib Dem would have put the 7% etc above the bars. (As well as set the 'zero' to be 5%)
When do the PB Morning Shift finish up? Their shift seems to be getting longer and longer each day. It's coming to something when the threads at at their best at 1am...
Hillary supporter Robert Dougherty from Jacksonville, North Carolina bragged on Facebook today about how he committed voter fraud.
Robert boasted on how he voted for some of his Facebook friends using their identities, and tells them not to worry about voting, because he’s already done it for them.
And he’s bragging about it on Facebook.
Robert boasts about how they give you a sticker every time you vote. He says he will continue to vote all next week!
Child's play.
No ID required to vote at ballot box: California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C.
If "Europe" has confirmed UK assurances, why hasn't it leaked already?
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Nobody has a clue.
The only certainty is that nobody has briefed you on what's actually happening, therefore YOU don't have a clue.
My only worry is that the LDs dump Olney and parachute in Cable which still may happen. If it does then the contest becomes Ali vs Frasier.
Why would Tim Farron want a schemer like Vince Cable back in the Parliamentary Party? He'd be forever having to look over his shoulder - or waiting on some "independent" polling to come out showing how shit was at being LibDem leader.....
Surely after his dismal showing in neighbouring Twickenham 18 months ago, Cable is now viewed as being well and truly past it.
When do the PB Morning Shift finish up? Their shift seems to be getting longer and longer each day. It's coming to something when the threads at at their best at 1am...
It's a catch 22. If you complain about the Morning Shift, you must be part of the Morning Shift!
Plato is definitely less prolific these days though. There was a time when it was simply a Twitter feed on here.
If "Europe" has confirmed UK assurances, why hasn't it leaked already?
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Nobody has a clue.
The only certainty is that nobody has briefed you on what's actually happening, therefore YOU don't have a clue.
If "Europe" has confirmed UK assurances, why hasn't it leaked already?
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Nobody has a clue.
Exactly. That includes the EU too.
I think the Nissan decision is a simple one. They decided Sunderland was the best place to produce their next models because the infrastructure was already there. They weren't looking for reasons to move, but are happy to pick up assurances and incentives as they pass Go.
Full disclosure, Ollie's a member of the Richmond Park Labour party
Very good, but they're making the schoolboy error of starting the scales at zero. The second one needs to start from 10% and the third one from 14% if they really want to emulate the best dodgy LD bar charts!
I think it is the difficulty fitting the 7%, 10% and 12% in the bars so they are readable.
Of course any true Lib Dem would have put the 7% etc above the bars. (As well as set the 'zero' to be 5%)
Maybe the LibDems should express their columns in binary? LibDEms on 14 1110!!
My only worry is that the LDs dump Olney and parachute in Cable which still may happen. If it does then the contest becomes Ali vs Frasier.
Why would Tim Farron want a schemer like Vince Cable back in the Parliamentary Party? He'd be forever having to look over his shoulder - or waiting on some "independent" polling to come out showing how shit was at being LibDem leader.....
Surely after his dismal showing in neighbouring Twickenham 18 months ago, Cable is now viewed as being well and truly past it.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
That's not election fraud, that's a miscalibrated touchscreen. If you had admin access to a machine with no paper trail and you wanted it to steal the votes, you'd just make it steal the votes. You wouldn't make it steal the vote then SHOW THE VOTER THAT YOU JUST STOLE IT.
If "Europe" has confirmed UK assurances, why hasn't it leaked already?
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Nobody has a clue.
Exactly. That includes the EU too.
I think the Nissan decision is a simple one. They decided Sunderland was the best place to produce their next models because the infrastructure was already there. They weren't looking for reasons to move, but are happy to pick up assurances and incentives as they pass Go.
I think that about sums it up.
This is how it probably went down, the government is going to try and get tariff free trade with the EU and pre-clearance of goods from non-EU countries being exported to the EU. If that isn't possible then we're going to mitigate the additional cost of customs clearance and price cuts for tariffs with tax cuts.
50-3. What horrors are we going to wake up to tomorrow morning?
13 wickets on the first day. Surely this match is going to finish inside 3 days?
If it is the same rate then it will go into the 4th day - with England's last pair at the wicket.
(Of course if it does end on the third day and Bangladesh win by e.g. 2 runs, they will be able to boast that they defeated England within 3 days.)
The rate of fall of wickets usually accelerates though as the pitch deteriorates. I will be up about 7.30 tomorrow. Hope England are still batting. Root or Stokes or Bairstow have to match Tamim. Going to be hard. How much of a lead would England need to be confident? Maybe 75?
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
Not since the early eighties!
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
Not since the early eighties!
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Or the French government pay fines. They also own 95% of EDF while our energy industry is in private hands (or in the hands of other states).
Reps appear to have won another day of the Florida early vote since the start of in-person. Up to a 52140 lead in vote by mail, up 5905. In-person the Dem lead grew only 3306, up to 37791. Things will be clearer after Souls to the Polls Sunday.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
Yes, but that wont happen. The amount of howling from the opposition benches would be too great, 7 Tories would cave and the bill would be lost.
Nissan have an assurance we are going into the Single Market (probably in all but name). There will be other sectors and industries given the same assurance.
Hammond will strangle the Hard Brexiteers by building a coalition of wealth and employment behind a Soft Brexit.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
Not since the early eighties!
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Same principle. The Commission's been regulating intra-EEC/EU trade since the 1950s. Governments can nationalise (or part-own) firms as they see fit as long as they follow the international rules. Banks would be a more recent example as far as the UK goes.
Lower Saxony has 12.7% of VW (and, weirdly, 20% of the voting rights) so there is nothing particularly peculiar about the Nissan set up. I do agree, however, that it is possible that they had a steer as to the line to be taken on the other side of the channel as well.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
Not since the early eighties!
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Or the French government pay fines. They also own 95% of EDF while our energy industry is in private hands (or in the hands of other states).
Some level of state support to the energy industry is far more defensible than a consumer good, with an international market, fairly strong competition, already unevenly distributed within the single market.
When do the PB Morning Shift finish up? Their shift seems to be getting longer and longer each day. It's coming to something when the threads at at their best at 1am...
It's a catch 22. If you complain about the Morning Shift, you must be part of the Morning Shift!
Plato is definitely less prolific these days though. There was a time when it was simply a Twitter feed on here.
"It's a catch 22. If you complain about the Morning Shift, you must be part of the Morning Shift! "
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
Yes, but that wont happen. The amount of howling from the opposition benches would be too great, 7 Tories would cave and the bill would be lost.
This will be the price of Brexit. Our system of in-work benefits will be complete axed.
Most interesting theory about the Nissan 'deal' and why the government isn't making it public.
Nissan are staying because they've been told we're staying in the single market and the customs union.
Mrs May will then announce a plethora of companies who will only stay on if we stay in both, and force the hard Brexiteers to be associated with an economic disaster.
May needs to worry less about the BrExiteers and worry more about the voters. If she stays in the single market it will require Freedom of Movement in all but name, just needing an (easy to obtain) job offer is not going to cut the mustard, and the Tory majority is toast at the next opportunity, she might even be forced into a coalition with the kippers to get anything done
"staying in single market" and "Freedom of movement" are yesterdays concepts.
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
Benefit rights will make no difference to numbers, the numbers will keep on climbing, and the Kippers (should they manage not to select that liability Kassam) will be heading toward 20% amongst cries of betrayal.
They will make a huge difference. When an Eastern European "worker" can stay with a friend for 90 says, register as self employed afterwards, claim tax credits and housing benefits it creates a huge attractive force. Removing that system of tax credits and housing benefits, especially for the self employed, will lower the numbers quite significantly.
Yes, but that wont happen. The amount of howling from the opposition benches would be too great, 7 Tories would cave and the bill would be lost.
This will be the price of Brexit. Our system of in-work benefits will be complete axed.
I think you would like this to happen. I don't think it will happen, because politics.
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
Nissan is 43.5% owned by Renault which is 20% owned by the French government...
How on Earth are the French allowed to own 20% of an enormous car giant without state aid?
Same way as the UK govt used to own British Leyland, I'd imagine. Or still does own or operate any number of other activities which are carried on elsewhere by private businesses.
Not since the early eighties!
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Same principle. The Commission's been regulating intra-EEC/EU trade since the 1950s. Governments can nationalise (or part-own) firms as they see fit as long as they follow the international rules. Banks would be a more recent example as far as the UK goes.
The French government's share in Renault is state aid, or rather, state aid inevitably follows from it. It does not fit within any established scheme but is rather only permissible because the Commission signed off on it. They're usually better than that.
Comments
The deal will be
* free trade as now (which Germany and France will want)
* Uk gets some restrictions on free movement of people but probably some special rights for EU citizens in the Uk and vice versa. Existing EU citizens in Uk untroubled.
* Uk continues to pay for next X years tapering down perhaps to a certain level for the rest of days.
* Uk has ability to make its own trade deals.
The argument whether this is hard or soft is I guess up for grabs.
UKIP whilst being poor PR for Zac nationally not standing mathematically simply MUST improve his chances by not standing too.
Labour standing scuppers Olney.
I think staying in the single market and leaving customs union would be better than the other way around. Staying in single market (pleasing remainers/soft brexiteers) but being able to negotiate our own trade deals (pleasing the 'let's deal with australia' leavers) could be a good outcome for majority of population (at the expense of the 'control immigration' leavers).
Staying in the customs union but not the single market, would be unpopular with all groups except the anti-immigration leavers, who are definitely not a majority.
which sounds about right.
Ultimately, Nissan want to get on with manufacturing this car and so remove as many barriers to that decision as possible.
Full disclosure, Ollie's a member of the Richmond Park Labour party
We want access to the single market and nobody wants tariffs.
The price for the Uk for this will be payments - probably tapered - and the EU will sacrifice some of the benefit rights of low skilled workers in the Uk for this.
win-win.
An article I read somewhere suggested the cost of complying with the customs regulations on average comes to 3% to 4% of the value of the goods exported, in addition to any applicable duties. I can't vouch for those figures but they are significant on low margin products.
PS I should add if Norway were a member of the EU Customs Union its exported goods would no longer be subject to customs controls.
I'm guessing Shadsy's book is chock full of yellow peril bets
Those from outside the area, and those who are pro 3rd runway, perhaps do not understand the depth of feeling on this.
The Heathrow owners have consistently and brazenly lied about their expansion plans since Heathrow was created. They have a staggering negatives in the area. Their heavy handed behavior towards those dissenting against expansion in the past has not helped either.
No, I'm not talking about the kind of people who sit down in front of bulldozers - people who wrote polite, intelligent letters to politicians were targeted - labelled as dangerous extremists, letters written to employers etc.... Games like the noise tests that involved landing empty planes with less than minimum reserve fuel have not helped either.
It is locally assumed that the 3rd runway is just the next phase in the eternal expansion of Heathrow. Zac winning would be seen a blow and part of the continued fight - it would also strengthen the block of other west london MPs opposing expansion.
The idea that Zac resigning as promised would be in any way negative is a complete non-starter.
With Corbyn the first coefficient is quite low, but the later remarkably high.
If it does then the contest becomes Ali vs Frasier.
But Lab has finished 2nd in four of the last six GEs in Richmond Park or its direct predecessors, including the last one, so there's no reason they shouldn't give it a go.
I'll get my coat.
http://linkis.com/thegatewaypundit.com/SlDzt
Hillary supporter Robert Dougherty from Jacksonville, North Carolina bragged on Facebook today about how he committed voter fraud.
Robert boasted on how he voted for some of his Facebook friends using their identities, and tells them not to worry about voting, because he’s already done it for them.
And he’s bragging about it on Facebook.
Robert boasts about how they give you a sticker every time you vote.
He says he will continue to vote all next week!
Thinking about it more - the information is most likely to have come from the EU direct to Nissan. That way they would have been able to be certain that what the UK is talking about matches (or is an achievable distance from) what the EU is talking about.
No ID required to vote at ballot box: California, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C.
#droopyBrexit
It just makes more and more sense - May gave them a UK position which was aligned (enough) with the main EU countries positions. This meant that what she was offering/planning was actually possible/plausible
13 wickets on the first day. Surely this match is going to finish inside 3 days?
Alanbrooke said:
"the french government holds 20% of Renault which in turn owns 43% of Nissan. I suspect Nissan arent lacking in government information"
That means that Nissan will be in the loop for the French government and probably informed on the German government position as well - via the French government.
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/review-rise-of-tomb-raider-20th.html
I tend to think that Mrs May hasn't yet made up her mind and is letting Hammond argue it out with the Brexiters. Mood music suggests Hammond is winning, but that's only this week.
Nobody has a clue.
Of course any true Lib Dem would have put the 7% etc above the bars. (As well as set the 'zero' to be 5%)
That's a big assumption.
Have the LDs confirmed Olney yet?
Have Labour decided whether or not to run?
(Of course if it does end on the third day and Bangladesh win by e.g. 2 runs, they will be able to boast that they defeated England within 3 days.)
If you complain about the Morning Shift, you must be part of the Morning Shift!
Plato is definitely less prolific these days though. There was a time when it was simply a Twitter feed on here.
Idiot.
I think the Nissan decision is a simple one. They decided Sunderland was the best place to produce their next models because the infrastructure was already there. They weren't looking for reasons to move, but are happy to pick up assurances and incentives as they pass Go.
141110!!The British people, Remainers and Leavers, have in their infinite wisdom decided that Brexit means Brexit.
Only the Remoaners carry the blue with yellow stars flag forward.
I wish, wish, wish that Blair starts a Remoaner party. It would be hilarious, and justifiably humiliating, to see him fall yet further from grace...
This is how it probably went down, the government is going to try and get tariff free trade with the EU and pre-clearance of goods from non-EU countries being exported to the EU. If that isn't possible then we're going to mitigate the additional cost of customs clearance and price cuts for tariffs with tax cuts.
The answer is the Commission actually approved this crap.
Olney looks is an excellent candidate and would make a fantastic MP, but Zac has incumbency advantage.
Hammond will strangle the Hard Brexiteers by building a coalition of wealth and employment behind a Soft Brexit.
If you complain about the Morning Shift, you must be part of the Morning Shift!
Ha! Yes.
I don't think it will happen, because politics.