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System Posts: 12,578
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be double trouble for the markets if Trump does manage to win

At the moment, it looks like Hillary Clinton is firmly priced-in to be the next President and that might be a reasonable assumption. However, the markets appear to be far too complacent with regards to the risk of Donald Trump becoming President.

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  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    First!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited October 2016
    Second like Remain. Thanks Adam (regular poster under another name?) for the insight, I agree that the 5/1 is too long in a two horse race, but Hillary is the favourite in a contest that either of them could still throw away with less than a fortnight to go.
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    edited October 2016
    And here was me thinking that junior had done a "TD-Towers".

    :phew:

    on-topic:

    Great analysis; minor risk-event. Don't think the in-house circus will understand it though.

    :thanks:
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    Arizona - Saguaro Strategies - Sample 2,385 - 22-24 Oct

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 46

    https://www.scribd.com/document/329155539/Saguaro-Strategies-General-Election-Survey-October-22-24

  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    This is all academic if Hillary wins Arizona.
    JackW said:

    Arizona - Saguaro Strategies - Sample 2,385 - 22-24 Oct

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 46

    https://www.scribd.com/document/329155539/Saguaro-Strategies-General-Election-Survey-October-22-24

  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Missouri - Mason Dixon - Sample 625 - 24-26 Oct

    Clinton 42 .. Trump 47

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Banglas four down in Dhaka, England now Betfair favourites.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    No expertise but 15% sounds fine for a shock effect, would be surprised if it lasted.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    JackW said:

    Missouri - Mason Dixon - Sample 625 - 24-26 Oct

    Clinton 42 .. Trump 47

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

    That's a solid Trump score in Missouri.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Pulpstar said:

    This is all academic if Hillary wins Arizona.

    JackW said:

    Arizona - Saguaro Strategies - Sample 2,385 - 22-24 Oct

    Clinton 48 .. Trump 46

    https://www.scribd.com/document/329155539/Saguaro-Strategies-General-Election-Survey-October-22-24

    Other polls this week had Trump ahead in Arizona but I expect it to be close there, the West will be Trump's weakest region relative to 2012 because of Hispanics
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    JackW said:

    Missouri - Mason Dixon - Sample 625 - 24-26 Oct

    Clinton 42 .. Trump 47

    http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-leads-clinton-blunt-kander-a-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_a4a48a47-485f-5e9a-b6f6-1dba7c7deb48.html

    That's a solid Trump score in Missouri.
    Actually it's down on Romney. The Senate race there is more interesting - Tied up presently.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Sandpit said:

    Banglas four down in Dhaka, England now Betfair favourites.

    Five down now...
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    No expertise but 15% sounds fine for a shock effect, would be surprised if it lasted.
    How did the German stock market do in the aftermath of Hitler's election?

    (*Ducks*)
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    Pulpstar said "This is all academic if Hillary wins Arizona."

    .................................................

    Quite so. The early voting in the state is presently very good for Clinton. She has also moved resources into the state from Nevada.



  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Nate Silver Reports 10 ECV Dip for Hillary over past 24hrs

    POTUS Countdown (24 hr changes)

    Sporting Index ECV Mid-Spreads:

    Clinton 329 (-2) Trump 207 (+2)

    538.com ECV Predictions:

    Clinton 328 (-10) Trump 209 (+10)
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DAVID L WHERE ARE YOU ??? LOOK AT THE SCORE>>>>>>>>>>>>>
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited October 2016
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Sandpit said:

    Banglas four down in Dhaka, England now Betfair favourites.

    Five down now...
    The 3.85 on England from an hour ago is now in to 1.9. A profitable morning!

    There's a quick 5% return on backing Iqbal as the highest Bangla 1st innings scorer if anyone wants it?
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Six down now. :D
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270
  • stodge
    stodge Posts: 14,908
    Morning all :)

    Thank you for the piece, Adam. Plenty of opportunity for others who whinge about the editorial content or tone of the forum to put up their own contribution.

    The prudent trader or punter will have ensured by now they are as green as possible on all outcomes. Nonetheless is the 5/1 a fair reflection of the weight of money in the book on the other runner ? If this were a handicap for 3-y-o of all ages, HRC would be 1/7 or 2/13 to ensure the bookie cops a small profit.

    In all honesty, if you think HRC is going to win and you have £70k behind the sofa, there are worse opportunities to make that a quick £77k - it's not like a 3 mile novice chase at Catterick with 18 fences in the way.

    State betting, like constituency betting here, is fine if you know what's going on but states are big places and often quite polarised between GOP and Dem counties. The keen observer may see an error in the betting that we can't from 3000+ miles away with only polls and social media to help.

    There's plenty of evidence the financial markets will take a hit if Trump prevails - the uncertain or the unexpected tends to do that. Sterling may well strengthen a little against the greenback but the FTSE will follow the DJIA if that takes a tumble as investors get jittery.

    Longer term, there are some interesting nuggets in Trump's programme though the devil will be in the detail. Curiously, my sense of him is that behind the bluster, he's less of a conservative and more of a moderate Republican than might be expected. He will need rapidly to find an accommodation with the media though he will have the benefit that large parts of it will be in a state of shock at the outcome.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    An Apple product that is ridiculously expensive ?

    Well colour me shocked..

    Is the UK savings rate so low because people buy this overpriced guff ?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    The Bangers deflating faster than Hillary's poll leads
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    No expertise but 15% sounds fine for a shock effect, would be surprised if it lasted.
    How did the German stock market do in the aftermath of Hitler's election?

    (*Ducks*)
    I hope the US news networks have booked the expert in such matters, Ken Livingstone, on the off chance...
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    Sounds like yet another case of us Brits being ripped off by U.S. companies, where historically $ selling price there = £ selling price here ..... that said, there not much difference at present!
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    Yes, they're way overpriced (even in dollars, before they put in a currency adjustment). The trusty '12 MPB will be getting an upgrade rather than a replacement for Christmas.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    Totally agree. The last time the MacBooks had a major upgrade they didn't have so much competition. It's harder to justify the price premium when Microsoft, HP, Dell and Lenovo all have equally good or better products.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/791920565955158016
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Interesting piece Adam.
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    Grown-ups by Toshiba: What do you do...?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    Apple.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    If that 15% figure is right, then with the polls showing Trump having an approx 1 in 6 or 16% chance of winning, it must surely follow that the S&P 500 should correspondingly leap by around 2.4% if and when Hillary is confirmed as the POTUS winner.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Election Data
    Full video of first focus group of Lab-UKIP switchers now up (90 mins): https://t.co/fpWAwophXl (second to follow soon)
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    PlatoSaid said:

    Election Data
    Full video of first focus group of Lab-UKIP switchers now up (90 mins): https://t.co/fpWAwophXl (second to follow soon)

    UKIP have to be in with a good shout of a number of Lab seats at the next election.

    IF (big if!) they can get their sh1t together and stop the infighting for a couple of years.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I note the camera/lens kit I bought back in June has gone from £1375 to £1525 now.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    I think he means "using the fall in the pound as an excuse for their profiteering"...
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    A 21% increase ...... there's an opportunistic degree of rounding involved there methinks (if you can call the pricing of something at £1,499 "rounding").
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    No expertise but 15% sounds fine for a shock effect, would be surprised if it lasted.
    How did the German stock market do in the aftermath of Hitler's election?

    (*Ducks*)
    How did the German market (markets?) do, say 1933-1935?
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    peter_from_putney said:

    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    A 21% increase ...... there's an opportunistic degree of rounding involved there methinks (if you can call the pricing of something at £1,499 "rounding").
    The pound hasn't fallen 21% from peak, and the price wasn't last set at the peak...
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/791920565955158016

    That will be interesting. Let's see if it moves the betting.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Pulpstar said:

    I note the camera/lens kit I bought back in June has gone from £1375 to £1525 now.

    So only an 11% increase ..... that sounds like a bargain!
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    No expertise but 15% sounds fine for a shock effect, would be surprised if it lasted.
    How did the German stock market do in the aftermath of Hitler's election?

    (*Ducks*)
    How did the German market (markets?) do, say 1933-1935?
    Infrastructure spending can do wonders.

    "We're gonna build an autobahn."
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    Jack - can we expect updated ECV estimates from you please over the final 10 days?
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Lord Ashcroft
    New #AshcroftInAmerica podcast with @JoeNBC, @KSoltisAnderson, @jonathandarman and the voters of Miami and Tampa: https://t.co/bd56JPcRt7
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    SquareRoot said:

    DAVID L WHERE ARE YOU ??? LOOK AT THE SCORE>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Been listening to TMS while driving. Brilliant bowling by Stokes and Ali. Is this a good score still? I suspect it might be but we are back in the game big time.
  • 619
    619 Posts: 1,784
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    It's still Clinton with a +5 lead there. I would say that was a lean Clinton.

    Also worth noting Trump has never led any polls there.
  • Stark_Dawning
    Stark_Dawning Posts: 10,202
    ThreeQuidder said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    A 21% increase ...... there's an opportunistic degree of rounding involved there methinks (if you can call the pricing of something at £1,499 "rounding").
    The pound hasn't fallen 21% from peak, and the price wasn't last set at the peak...
    No point moaning about the company's pricing - if you devalue your currency and create an inflationary environment then these sort of things are bound to happen. Economic forces are ethically neutral.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    619 said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    It's still Clinton with a +5 lead there. I would say that was a lean Clinton.

    Also worth noting Trump has never led any polls there.
    You would say that, wouldn't you ?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/791922852282839040
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    DavidL said:

    SquareRoot said:

    DAVID L WHERE ARE YOU ??? LOOK AT THE SCORE>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Been listening to TMS while driving. Brilliant bowling by Stokes and Ali. Is this a good score still? I suspect it might be but we are back in the game big time.
    Betfair's England price of 1.77 suggests that the Banglas haven't scored enough.
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    peter_from_putney said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    If that 15% figure is right, then with the polls showing Trump having an approx 1 in 6 or 16% chance of winning, it must surely follow that the S&P 500 should correspondingly leap by around 2.4% if and when Hillary is confirmed as the POTUS winner.
    If I were invested in the US market, I would be heavily backing Trump as a hedge against a possible 15% drop in my holdings.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited October 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/791922852282839040

    https://twitter.com/chrisdeerin/status/791923676941660161
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    JackW said:

    Jonathan Swan and Ben Kamisar of "Politico" struggle to find a viable Trump route to 270 :

    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303167-how-does-trump-get-to-270

    Realclearpolitics moves Pennsylvania from Leans Mrs Clinton to Toss up status.
    http://www.politicspa.com/realclearpolitics-moves-pa-to-toss-up-status/79563/
    Only because they haven't included two Clinton polls of +6 and +7 issued yesterday. RCP playing games again.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    And there are the expats dealing with a 30% increase in living costs (no sympathy at all from the Brexiters)- I could get over 1.43 to the Euro a year ago/ now its down to about 1.08 (on my exchange).

    But surely we are living in some parallel multiverse....yesterdays economic news, a slowdown in growth, and the continuation of Nissan- they all seem to be put through the prism of Brexit crapness whereby anything that isn't that crap is viewed as a resounding success for Brexit.

    If remain had won I doubt very much we would have all been creaming our undies on slowing growth rates of 0.5%, or Nissans continuation of the NE contract.

    Meanwhile the exchange rate is shocking, stagflation is coming, business investment is stalling, the deficit is increasing, the current account increasing....we are eight years from the last economic shock....and after Nissan yesterday we have shown just how open we are to blackmail from industry and the EU because of Brexit.

    I don't think we could have picked a worse time to put us through the uncertainty of Brexit....when (not if) the next economic shock hits us....it'll be tough.
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    :collective-effort:

    Apols: Leo Sayer. Please fill the gaps.

    Well everybody knows as Ladbrookes knows,
    A bet is only good as you start.
    Your number two leaves too early,
    But your oppo helps with the start.

    You find a nice score and settle right in,
    Your bat playing the ball.
    But then Mooen has me shuffling along,
    And the batting begins to close.

    :chorus:
    Well I'm a one man Bang
    LaDeshi batsman called Tamim.
    Is there anybody out there want to lend me a hand
    With my one man band.

    For too often I've been fighting alone,
    Against a bowling attack so thin.
    And soon my caps won't be large enough
    To stop me twenty-twentying.

    So hey there India don't you look so sad
    Don't look so ill at ease,
    Well I can play for any team you like
    To cheer up the life I should lead.

    :repeat-chorus:

  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 6m6 minutes ago
    Corbyn alleged to have told colleagues peerage for Chakrabarti wld get round paying her for anti-semitism inquiry

    http://heatst.com/world/jeremy-corbyn-and-shami-chakrabarti-accused-of-massive-stitch-up-over-peerage/
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    Barnesian said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    rcs1000 said:

    While this is not a forecast, I believe some commentators have suggested that the S&P500 would be down c. 15% in a Trump win scenario. The US Dollar would decline against the Euro, Sterling, etc. I suspect European markets would probably fall a similar amount.

    Longer-term, if Trump follows a fiscal expansion path, one might suppose that infrastructure companies would benefit from spending. Oil & gas companies would benefit from Trump being more pro-drilling... but, more drilling means a lower oil price, so it's by no means clear that sector would perform particularly well.

    Anyway, we'll see...

    If that 15% figure is right, then with the polls showing Trump having an approx 1 in 6 or 16% chance of winning, it must surely follow that the S&P 500 should correspondingly leap by around 2.4% if and when Hillary is confirmed as the POTUS winner.
    If I were invested in the US market, I would be heavily backing Trump as a hedge against a possible 15% drop in my holdings.
    I did that with Brexit....but it made me sick to my stomach heavily backing something I found so terrible for the country, so I cashed out and made a currency transfer 2 days before the vote. I got the Euro at about 1.32.


  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    edited October 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    Yes, pretty much the same as they are asking in dollars for the rest of the world.

    You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly ;)
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    image
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    TGOHF said:

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 6m6 minutes ago
    Corbyn alleged to have told colleagues peerage for Chakrabarti wld get round paying her for anti-semitism inquiry

    http://heatst.com/world/jeremy-corbyn-and-shami-chakrabarti-accused-of-massive-stitch-up-over-peerage/

    Oh dear oh dear. I guess this is what happens when, in the first year in the job, you nominate pricicely one person for a peerage.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
    No, when a Mac crashes you get a brief flash of the TV test card before a long reboot.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/politico/status/791931269470834689
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    peter_from_putney said:

    Jack - can we expect updated ECV estimates from you please over the final 10 days?

    You mean a slim downed ARSE4US ?!? .... :smile:

    I'll issue a forecast every few days but it'll not have the bottom of the last two elections.

    Here's my latest emission :

    Clinton 358 .. Trump 180

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/dov9v
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    Indigo said:



    You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly ;)

    Care to elaborate?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    SquareRoot said:

    DAVID L WHERE ARE YOU ??? LOOK AT THE SCORE>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Been listening to TMS while driving. Brilliant bowling by Stokes and Ali. Is this a good score still? I suspect it might be but we are back in the game big time.
    Betfair's England price of 1.77 suggests that the Banglas haven't scored enough.
    Hmm...if Moeem can make the ball turn like this we need to think about what the BD spinners can do. And England bats last. They may be demoralised, especially if they roll over now for 250 but I suspect our top order are in for a difficult couple of sessions.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Stark_Dawning said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Scott_P said:

    @EdConwaySky: Last night Apple quietly raised the UK prices of its computers to reflect the fall in the pound. So a 4K iMac that was £1,199 is now £1,449

    A 21% increase ...... there's an opportunistic degree of rounding involved there methinks (if you can call the pricing of something at £1,499 "rounding").
    The pound hasn't fallen 21% from peak, and the price wasn't last set at the peak...
    No point moaning about the company's pricing - if you devalue your currency and create an inflationary environment then these sort of things are bound to happen. Economic forces are ethically neutral.
    Oh, I'm not moaning. Apple are going to profiteer, that's what they do.
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    O/T: Do people never learn?!

    https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
    Wouldn't a coke habit be cheaper ?
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    Apple rely on people like me who just buy their products, and not particularly price sensitive.I've got a three year Pro and want to upgrade. I'm going to New York in a couple of weeks so I'll buy there.

    I haven't seen.....but has there been any iPad upgrade this autumn?
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited October 2016

    I don't think we could have picked a worse time to put us through the uncertainty of Brexit....when (not if) the next economic shock hits us....it'll be tough.

    We've learned since Brexit that the EU is a prison and they'll try to make you suffer if you dare to leave. The penalty for apostasy is death. Brussels remains unwaveringly committed to its project of turning Europe into the U.S.E. - whether or not the peoples of Europe want that. If we had voted remain we would have been committing ourselves, unrecoverably, to becoming part of a U.S.E. We saved ourselves at the 11th hour, having been outrageously denied a vote on the core question for 40 years. We may also have saved others by doing so. The EU is failing. Failing badly. We unquestionably made the right call.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited October 2016
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    The new Surface Studio desktops are the really expensive ones, but they have a massive touch screen from Wacom. Aimed very much at designers and graphics artists, who can afford $3-$4k for them!
    http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/10/microsoft-announces-surface-studio-all-in-one-touchscreen-pc/
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I see that all remainers are Blairites now. A leader they'll all be happy to rally round :grin:
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    Yes, pretty much the same as they are asking in dollars for the rest of the world.

    You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly ;)
    And if you get the latest iPhone 7, and the latest MacBook Pro, there's no out of the box way to connect the two together. They want an extra £25 for a USB-C to lightning cable.
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Jack - can we expect updated ECV estimates from you please over the final 10 days?

    You mean a slim downed ARSE4US ?!? .... :smile:

    I'll issue a forecast every few days but it'll not have the bottom of the last two elections.

    Here's my latest emission :

    Clinton 348 .. Trump 190

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/kxJ92
    You think Clinton will win Arizona but lose Wisconsin?
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Blue_rog said:

    I see that all remainers are Blairites now. A leader they'll all be happy to rally round :grin:

    A vote for the LDs in Richmond is a vote for Tony Blair.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Essexit said:

    O/T: Do people never learn?!

    https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984

    Ferry McFerryface
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    JackW said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Jack - can we expect updated ECV estimates from you please over the final 10 days?

    You mean a slim downed ARSE4US ?!? .... :smile:

    I'll issue a forecast every few days but it'll not have the bottom of the last two elections.

    Here's my latest emission :

    Clinton 348 .. Trump 190

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/kxJ92
    You think Clinton will win Arizona but lose Wisconsin?
    My error - Duly edited
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    geoffw said:

    Indigo said:



    You also need this essential accessory to make it work properly ;)

    Care to elaborate?
    Apple removed the ESC key from the latest MBP line up, one of the most important keys on the keyboard if you are a software developer, one of their most important markets.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware
    No, you're paying for the label too.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    8 down ..after 171. for 1 now 213 for 8
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
    Wouldn't a coke habit be cheaper ?
    We have regular, random drug tests at work, though I do know when they are happening.
  • timmo
    timmo Posts: 1,469
    Essexit said:

    O/T: Do people never learn?!

    https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984

    Brexy McBrexit
  • FluffyThoughts
    FluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    rcs1000 said:

    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.

    Eh?, 'OW MUCH?
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Essexit said:

    O/T: Do people never learn?!

    https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984

    I also note the Union Jack appears to be upside-down.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Essexit said:

    O/T: Do people never learn?!

    https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984

    SS Titanic
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    They're A THOUSAND POUNDS CHEAPER - 1,500 vs 2,500 - on a like-for-like basis.
    You're not just paying for the hardware, one of the reasons I go for macs is no blue screen of death.
    No, when a Mac crashes you get a brief flash of the TV test card before a long reboot.
    3 years or so ago I bought a good spec pro to replace my Apple laptop. When it crashed for the first time I was sooooooooooo disappointed x 10.

  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    On topic, I'm far from convinced by the parallels being drawn with either the EURef or GE2015.

    In the former, the betting markets seemed to be completely out of line with the polling, which had the referendum on a knife-edge. Certainly, those polls that had Remain ahead in the final days after Jo Cox's death tended to do so by more on average than those which had Leave ahead, and there did look to have been a swing back to Remain. Also, undecideds tend to break for the status quo or the safe option. But there were also big questions over how reliable the methodology was for a one-off vote where the turnout was hard to gauge and where there were few analogue polls to learn from. Leave at something like 6/4 on the day would have been much more rational.

    In the latter, there were plenty of straws in the wind that the Tories might do well, from the down-survey questions on leadership and economic trustworthiness to the less-than-overwhelming by-election results to the scale of the Tory efforts in the Lib Dem seats (and the scale of the Lib Dem collapse in polling vote share) to the Tories being the 'safe' option.

    In the US, Trump is not the safe option, he is behind in the polls, he seems to have a ceiling at 44%, which is too low; his ratings with too many demographics is terrible even given Hillary's own poor ratings; and the pollsters are working with a known quantity so ought to be fairly accurate, and given that the state-level polling broadly matches the picture from the national-level, the likelihood is that it is.

    None of which is to say that Trump can't win. It is, however, to say that if the election were held today he wouldn't win.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 6m6 minutes ago
    Corbyn alleged to have told colleagues peerage for Chakrabarti wld get round paying her for anti-semitism inquiry

    http://heatst.com/world/jeremy-corbyn-and-shami-chakrabarti-accused-of-massive-stitch-up-over-peerage/

    Oh dear oh dear. I guess this is what happens when, in the first year in the job, you nominate pricicely one person for a peerage.
    It's what happens when you bring together two morons with no moral compass.

  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Alanbrooke said:

    Essexit said:

    O/T: Do people never learn?!

    https://twitter.com/pandocruises/status/791367794118057984

    SS Titanic
    Cruisy McCruiseface.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Bangladesh collapsing like Les Grenouilles in 1940
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Ishmael_X said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    When did ESC last actually do anything other than (in some applications) exit full screen?
    Vi
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    The Bangers vs England...it's just not a fair fight. Maybe a sign of things to come when we start our negotiations with 27 Countries, the biggest trading block the world has ever produced and hope to come out with something..
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sandpit said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, is it my imagination or are the new MacBook Pros completely, absurdly, ridiculously expensive? Two and a half thousand pounds for the 15 inch model; that's a grand more than a similarly spec'ed Surface Book. (And that includes a free Xbox One.)

    No escape key. But Microsoft has recently announced some very, very expensive Surface laptops aimed at the graphics market.
    The new Surface Studio desktops are the really expensive ones, but they have a massive touch screen from Wacom. Aimed very much at designers and graphics artists, who can afford $3-$4k for them!
    http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2016/10/microsoft-announces-surface-studio-all-in-one-touchscreen-pc/
    That looks like it is worth $4000 though,

    28" display with 13.5 million pixels at a 4500x3000 resolution
    2TB "rapid" hard drive
    32GB RAM,
    quad-core Skylake CPU,
    Nvidia GeForce GTX 980M GPU with 4GB of VRAM,
    an integrated "2.1 surround" speaker system,
    a rear-facing 10MP camera,
    and a Windows Hello-compatible front-facing 5MP camera
This discussion has been closed.

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