politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov England & Wales polling has LAB down at 18.7% if th
Comments
-
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
0 -
Not at all. In much of rural southern England, including Witney, the Lib Dems have been the *traditional* challengers to the Conservatives in recent elections. 2015 being the obvious exception, because their vote collapsed so spectacularly, allowing either Labour or Ukip to score a lot of (typically distant) second place results. Only in points, broadly speaking, to the South and West of Oxford are there a substantial concentration of Lib Dem second places.IanB2 said:"(in seats that are straight Con-LD fights)"
Those crucial words of yours, in brackets, defeat your point.
My contention is that, if there is a significant Lib Dem recovery, we should expect to see a wave of yellow spread over the second place map - but so long as the broader left remains divided, it will be very hard for them to gather enough votes to get over the top and actually beat the Tories in most of their likely target seats. That is all.
0 -
Even if you don't approve this message, the edit/manipulation is incredibly seamless.
https://twitter.com/CookTheGreat/status/7894491747228508160 -
Aaaaah Malcy...still suffering from a hangover as per usual.malcolmg said:
Get a life loserSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
..0 -
Mr. Divvie, it's very well done.
Mr. B2, unlikely. Not even chasing hits with the F1 blog, it's more a public record of my bets as well as somewhere for a handful of people from here to comment.0 -
What is also depressing is that brexit has given the SNP a new project and the basics will continue to suffer. Education, policing and NHS are just poor and no one seems to care.0
-
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.hamiltonace said:
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
0 -
It isn't "End of" though, is it?SquareRoot said:
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.hamiltonace said:
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
0 -
They, um, still exist.SquareRoot said:
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.hamiltonace said:
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
0 -
Your need to keep this in the past tense is revealing.SquareRoot said:
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.hamiltonace said:
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
0 -
You forsee another referendum soon??SouthamObserver said:
It isn't "End of" though, is it?SquareRoot said:
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.hamiltonace said:
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
0 -
You wouldn't happen to mean places like Oxford East (a Labour hold) and Cambridge and Norwich South (both Labour gains from the Liberal Democrats,) now would you?MarqueeMark said:
Will that be those parts of London and the university towns that don't return Tory MPs?aschamberlain said:
Thank you! I think there's significant potential for switching from moderate Conservatives who are turned off by the harsh anti-immigrant tone that May's allowed to envelope the Tory party and who are vehemently opposed to leaving the single market. There were plenty of these types in Witney and I suspect many more in London and the university towns.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Chamberlain, welcome to the site.
But from where would the explosion come? Some from UKIP (as protesters rather than EU enthusiasts), but the only other real source would be Labour. At a certain point, that split becomes a Goldilocks Zone for the Conservatives.
The pattern of shattered Labour remnants in the South, outside of London, is mainly a tale of university towns or very high concentrations of BAME voters. Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Luton, Slough... basically outposts of London in the shires.
I do happen to believe that the Yellow Tories will have their time once again, but it may take a generation. So long as Labour survives in strength, there's no room for a new opposition to succeed it, and the pressure holding the Conservative Party together will still remain.0 -
In good news, I just got my paperback edition of Explorations: Through the Wormhole, featuring a story by me.
It's easily the best sci-fi Chinese smuggler story I've ever written.0 -
The problem in Witney was that Labour could point to the fact that it was second in 2015 and concentrate its resources in areas of strength. Outright hostility wasn't the issue, just lack of belief that the Lib Dems had a credible shot at winning in Labour leaning parts of the constituency. Outside of these areas it was fairly easy to persuade Labour voters to switch.Black_Rook said:
Not at all. In much of rural southern England, including Witney, the Lib Dems have been the *traditional* challengers to the Conservatives in recent elections. 2015 being the obvious exception, because their vote collapsed so spectacularly, allowing either Labour or Ukip to score a lot of (typically distant) second place results. Only in points, broadly speaking, to the South and West of Oxford are there a substantial concentration of Lib Dem second places.IanB2 said:"(in seats that are straight Con-LD fights)"
Those crucial words of yours, in brackets, defeat your point.
My contention is that, if there is a significant Lib Dem recovery, we should expect to see a wave of yellow spread over the second place map - but so long as the broader left remains divided, it will be very hard for them to gather enough votes to get over the top and actually beat the Tories in most of their likely target seats. That is all.
I suspect in the South West, where the Lib Dems have traditionally been in contention, it shouldn't be too hard to get a chunk of the Labour vote to switch across.0 -
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/789871189913198593
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu0 -
https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/789866271454138368
A useful tweet for potentially more than one reason.0 -
I'd very interesting data and well worth a thread. However as soon as a realignment created a stop Brexit party there would be a counter realignment around a pro Brexit party. Given the Conservatives under May have already grabbed this territory and this is FPTP...... We need some Leave voters to change their mind before it's too late. Given it's 10 minutes to Midnight that shit needs to be quick and large. The existing party structure will block Brexit if it becomes unpopular enough quickly enough. So far there is no polling evidence at all that this is happening. To that extent realignment while highly relavent to the future of British politics is so far irrelevant to Brexit.0
-
As an aside I'm surprised to see @SeanT posting about Chilean Red. This should be called the TRAITORS Party.0
-
In the 80s we had the Gang Of Four. In the 10s we might get the Best Of Three.0
-
Indeed, quite the contrary...YellowSubmarine said:The existing party structure will block Brexit if it becomes unpopular enough quickly enough. So far there is no polling evidence at all that this is happening.
"Theresa May is trusted by more than twice as many voters as Jeremy Corbyn to run the economy well and handle Brexit negotiations effectively, according to an Opinium/Observer poll to mark her first 100 days as prime minister.
The findings also show May is regarded as strong, decisive, and able to get things done and stand up for Britain’s interests abroad by more than double the number of voters who attribute these qualities to the Labour leader.
The survey conducted last week indicates that she is still building respect among voters three months into her leadership, despite troubles in her cabinet and heated arguments in parliament over Brexit.
Some 46% of voters now think more positively about her than they did when she became prime minister while only 15% think more negatively, with 51% judging her first 100 days to have been an overall success. This compares with only 29% who said the same of Corbyn 100 days after he was elected Labour leader for the first time in September last year."
The stronger Theresa May gets, the more secure the pro-Brexit position out in the country becomes.0 -
That's hardly surprising. Even I in all sincerity would rather Theresa May was handling the Brexit negotiations than the pestilent Jeremy Corbyn. That's the scale of the mess Britain's Left is in.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/guardian/status/789871189913198593
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu0 -
Below should have read shift not sh*t as is it does. Too late to edit. Apologies.0
-
Mr. Submarine, it's a nice typo
A sadly defunct MUD I used to play had a weapon, a wand of rremoval. It turned, for example 'white shirts' into 'white shits'.0 -
The original sounds like the result of a high fibre diet!YellowSubmarine said:Below should have read shift not sh*t as is it does. Too late to edit. Apologies.
0 -
As we can all observe, the Left is more divided and less trusted, on the whole, than the Right. Especially if Theresa May can finally succeed in stealing the ex-Tory faction of Ukip's support back from them, she would be leading a near-united Right at perhaps around 45% in the polls against a badly fragmented Left.YellowSubmarine said:
That's hardly surprising. Even I in all sincerity would rather Theresa May was handling the Brexit negotiations than the pestilent Jeremy Corbyn. That's the scale of the mess Britain's Left is in.Black_Rook said:https://twitter.com/guardian/status/789871189913198593
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu
We all know what happens under our system when one half of the argument has its act together and the other half is in pieces. Scotland. That's what happens.
I'm not suggesting that the Tories would sweep all before them in a general election under this scenario - Labour is too well dug-in in the deep heartlands to be moved - but it would be a major rout, nonetheless.0 -
test-1
-
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.0 -
Opinium/Observer:
Con 39%
Lab 30%
UKIP 13%
SNP 6%
LD 6%
Greens 4%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu0 -
Sorry I can't access the article but did you get to see Mt Ossorno and Lake Llanquihue? A magical place, felt a lot like Switzerland. Apparently the local area was largely populated by 'Germans' - which meant anyone from Central Europe.SeanT said:Did an article on The Beat of Chile, in The Times today
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/travel/best-of-chile-mountains-desert-and-wine-m2j58fdhq
Salud0 -
Indeed, so long as SNP + Green = majority at Holyrood, the prospect of another independence referendum remains very real. If indyref2 is held and also lost, the campaign for indyref3 will begin the following morning.SouthamObserver said:
It isn't "End of" though, is it?SquareRoot said:
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.hamiltonace said:
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunningSquareRoot said:
The SNP lost... period.hamiltonace said:The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
Independence only goes on the back burner if and when the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament is removed by the people.0 -
Anyway, I'm off now, but qualifying's in 26 minutes. Intrigued to see how Red Bull do.0
-
Both parties on thirty-something. Virtually a tie.AndyJS said:Opinium/Observer:
Con 39%
Lab 30%
UKIP 13%
SNP 6%
LD 6%
Greens 4%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu0 -
A Stop Brexit Party lead by who?
Clegg? Osborne? Corbyn? Sturgeon?
Put a name on it and all the Tory, Labour, SNP etc loathing will surface,0 -
May has not set a timetable? I thought there was a clear statement of when Article 50 would be declared?RochdalePioneers said:I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.0 -
0
-
Shy-shy-Trump affect.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/789866271454138368
A useful tweet for potentially more than one reason.0 -
New policies announced at Trump's 1st 100 days speech:
—Sue accusers
—Break up media companies
—US pays for wall, Mexico 'reimburses'0 -
The real lesson is get whoever polled Delaware to do the national polling.0
-
Jeremy Corbyn handling the Brexit negotiations – the mind boggles.0
-
The tweet states that they used polls three weeks out in these averages. That does seem like a very long time before the actual vote.Alistair said:
Shy-shy-Trump affect.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/forecasterenten/status/789866271454138368
A useful tweet for potentially more than one reason.0 -
-
Brave effort, friend.SandyRentool said:
Both parties on thirty-something. Virtually a tie.AndyJS said:Opinium/Observer:
Con 39%
Lab 30%
UKIP 13%
SNP 6%
LD 6%
Greens 4%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu0 -
A stop Brexit party would face the problem that its support rarely went above 40% in any one constituency, assuming that about 50% of Remainers voted for the new party in each seat. I think they could get a good haul of seats in London (perhaps 20-25), and win some university cities, but that's all. They'd probably get a lot of decent second places in the Home Counties, but there are no prizes for second.
So, Greater London would probably be something like 30% Lab, 30% Con, 31% Stop Brexit. The South East something like 42% Con, 26% Stop Brexit, 15% UKIP, 12% Labour. The rest of England maybe Con 34% Stop Brexit 24%, Lab 19%, UKIP 16%.
I'd guess a result along the lines of 360 Con, 150 Lab, 50 Stop Brexit, 13 Others in England and Wales.0 -
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.RochdalePioneers said:I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.0 -
Nah. Absent a real broad based economic melt down, this party will be lucky to get 5%. Its really just not that important to voters who are not political obsessive. Europe is already trending down the list of items most important to voters, to be replaced by the old faithfuls, Health and Education. Most voters think its a done deal and will get on with their lives unless the wheels really fall off.RochdalePioneers said:A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
Were overturning BrExit to look like a real possibility the reaction might be surprising, we would be in Winchester Byelection territory. All the leavers would be pissed off, as would all the remainers that were really leavers but brought Project Fear, as would all the remainers that were really leavers but trusted Cameron, as would be all the remainers that were real remainers but think the results of the referendum should be honored, that could be more than three quarters of the electorate.
Politicians talk a good line, its what they are paid for, but they know which side of their bread is buttered, no big name is going to risk his career pissing of three quarters off the electorate.0 -
Someone better not tell trump about these. Clinton up most places in early voting except in iowa and ohio(which she doesnt need)
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/index.html0 -
Wow.
Taniel – Verified account @Taniel
Early voting turnout is up by 63.3% in Northern Virginia (over 2012); it's down 0.4% in the rest of the state. http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting …0 -
It's powerfully simple and effective.rcs1000 said:What do PBers think of this Hillary advert?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCqFCCgU1xk0 -
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.MikeK said:
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.RochdalePioneers said:I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.0 -
Not for longBromptonaut said:
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.MikeK said:
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.RochdalePioneers said:I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.0 -
Quite.RochdalePioneers said:
Not for longBromptonaut said:
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.MikeK said:
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.RochdalePioneers said:I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.0 -
I suspect that you are very likely to be proven right on the first point and will probably be vindicated on the second. The third is too pessimistic. The UK is not a superpower but nor is at as inconsequential as you seem to imply.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
I'm Hillary Clinton and I sent your son to his untimely death.rcs1000 said:What do PBers think of this Hillary advert?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCqFCCgU1xk
0 -
A leadership team of Blair, Mandelson, Soubry, and Huhne.MarqueeMark said:0 -
I think the problem with (3) is that the rest of the world really isn't that pro-free trade. If you look at the G20 countries, there are two big blocs of free trade agreements - NAFTA, and the EU. There are then a few bilateral free trade deals (Canada - Switzerland, USA - Australia, EU - South Korea), and that's about it. There are whole countries that essentially have no free trade outside small customs unions they control (Brazil with Mercosur, Russia).Black_Rook said:
I suspect that you are very likely to be proven right on the first point and will probably be vindicated on the second. The third is too pessimistic. The UK is not a superpower but nor is at as inconsequential as you seem to imply.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
We will, I'm sure, have no problems securing free trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. (And we may well inherit the EU's agreement with South Korea.)
But after that: name the decent sized country which a strong commitment to free trade?
If you want to get into free trade with the US or with China, you have to accept (and Australia, Japan and South Korea did with TPP, or Switzerland did with its China deal) incredibly lopsided agreements. So, you might have to accept US ISDS tribunals meeting in secret, or you might have a treaty requirement to keep intellectual property law in lockstep with the US, or you might be obliged to open up your financial services industry to Chinese owned firms, while still being locked out of the Chinese market.0 -
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...0 -
My rethinking of the issue ( having been broadly wrong about the whole thing ) is Brexit is advanced Stage 3. Stage 1 is Britain stops imagining it's " Imagined Community ". Stage 2 is Britain exhausts it's existing stock of " Imagined Community " which is n longer replenishing. Stage 3 is the constituent parts of Britain start imagining their own new communities. Clearly Scotland started Stage 3 a while ago and it's advanced. For what I call rEngland * the Leave Campaign was the paradigm shft between Sage 2 and 3. The UK is an old and stable institution so the time lag between the legal Community and the Imagined one fraying is long but it's happening.RochdalePioneers said:
Not for longBromptonaut said:
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.MikeK said:
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.RochdalePioneers said:I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
* rEngland is the new polity comprising England minus the secession of London plus anglophone Wales.0 -
And one of the primary reasons is that true free trade necessarily impinges on national sovereignty. This is the great contradiction at the heart of the Thatcherite Leave case against the EU.rcs1000 said:But after that: name the decent sized country which a strong commitment to free trade
0 -
-
You mistyped - it's post of the mouthYellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
See post above about Trump underperforming his Polling.RochdalePioneers said:Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...0 -
Will Brexit happen? Yes.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
A good deal from the EU? A lot of us don't believe we have one presently.
The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
0 -
Do you have a setting other than whinge?YellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
"It's OK to say "shit". It ain't against God!" - Prisoner Boggs, Alien 3YellowSubmarine said:Below should have read shift not sh*t as is it does. Too late to edit. Apologies.
0 -
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?matt said:
Do you have a setting other than whinge?YellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
Different establishment. The Blairite metropoliticans (regardless of party) have been swept from the scene.SouthamObserver said:
The Establishment is still in charge and will remain in charge. If you really want to stick it up them raise their taxes, close down their public schools, give everyone the freedom to roam on their land and support Scottish independence.MarqueeMark said:We Leavers thought the extreme joy of the night of 24th June could not be beaten.
We were wrong.
The delight that has come from hearing the wailing of an Establishment that held four aces secreted up its sleeve, being beaten by our six-high running flush, for month after month - that has been positively tantric....0 -
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.RochdalePioneers said:Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...0 -
Not such a bleak poll for Labour though it still sees the Tory lead up from 6% in late July.
0 -
16 days to go and anything can happen. And with Trump, that could be anything!Sean_F said:
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.RochdalePioneers said:Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...0 -
Could you be more specific? Name a similar sized nation outside the EU with better international relationships than we enjoy today.chestnut said:The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
0 -
There's little point engaging with anyone who can't do shades of grey.YellowSubmarine said:
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?matt said:
Do you have a setting other than whinge?YellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
Lolmatt said:
Do you have a setting other than whinge?YellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
wtf was Alien 3 all about? I regard aliens as the last authentic film in the series, so that Ripley, Hicks and Newt live happily ever after. No one, least of all Hicks and Newt, deserves to die for the sake of the plot of a3, let alone Resurrection.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"It's OK to say "shit". It ain't against God!" - Prisoner Boggs, Alien 3YellowSubmarine said:Below should have read shift not sh*t as is it does. Too late to edit. Apologies.
0 -
Real Donald Trump
Today I introduced my Contract with the American Voter - our economy will be STRONG & our people will be SAFE.
https://t.co/uezUaUp0cd https://t.co/bS6iQTHJLF0 -
In the form of a pledge card or a stone tablet?PlatoSaid said:Real Donald Trump
Today I introduced my Contract with the American Voter - our economy will be STRONG & our people will be SAFE.
https://t.co/uezUaUp0cd https://t.co/bS6iQTHJLF0 -
On Topic - FFS If the moon was made of cheese it would be Corbyns fault that we werent all getting free cheese sandwiches delivered hourly.
Total dreamland that people would vote in a GE for a stop BREXIT Party0 -
Sums up my feeling. Less than 10% chance of Trump victory, but not zero.Sean_F said:
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.RochdalePioneers said:Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...0 -
All 50 of them?matt said:
There's little point engaging with anyone who can't do shades of grey.YellowSubmarine said:
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?matt said:
Do you have a setting other than whinge?YellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
If so I've got a tricky conversation with Mrs M coming up later.0 -
Define "size".williamglenn said:
Could you be more specific? Name a similar sized nation outside the EU with better international relationships than we enjoy today.chestnut said:The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
Population? GDP? Average penis length?0 -
I don't think the UK is inconsequential. The Brexit assumption is that the UK will pivot away from the EU to more dynamic parts of the world. For that to happen those dynamic parts of the world will need to be MORE interested in the UK outside of the EU than when it was in. There's no reason to believe they will be more interested. In fact much of their present interest in the UK is that it is seen as an open economy acting as a gateway to the EU. The pivot is probably a false assumption..Black_Rook said:
I suspect that you are very likely to be proven right on the first point and will probably be vindicated on the second. The third is too pessimistic. The UK is not a superpower but nor is at as inconsequential as you seem to imply.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
It is too late.YellowSubmarine said:I'd very interesting data and well worth a thread. However as soon as a realignment created a stop Brexit party there would be a counter realignment around a pro Brexit party. Given the Conservatives under May have already grabbed this territory and this is FPTP...... We need some Leave voters to change their mind before it's too late.
0 -
Kinkymatt said:
There's little point engaging with anyone who can't do shades of grey.YellowSubmarine said:
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?matt said:
Do you have a setting other than whinge?YellowSubmarine said:
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.0 -
Today I do something I should have done two months. I also channel 1994.PlatoSaid said:Real Donald Trump
Today I introduced my Contract with the American Voter - our economy will be STRONG & our people will be SAFE.
https://t.co/uezUaUp0cd https://t.co/bS6iQTHJLF
Next week I'm really going to work on my field offices in swing states.0 -
The party is actually here. It IS the Lib Dems ^_~bigjohnowls said:On Topic - FFS If the moon was made of cheese it would be Corbyns fault that we werent all getting free cheese sandwiches delivered hourly.
Total dreamland that people would vote in a GE for a stop BREXIT Party0 -
Define it however you like. It wasn't me who introduced the subject.GeoffM said:
Define "size".williamglenn said:
Could you be more specific? Name a similar sized nation outside the EU with better international relationships than we enjoy today.chestnut said:The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
Population? GDP? Average penis length?0 -
Trump's strategy of trying to win via the mid-West, is sound. It's his character flaws that have undermined his chances.MTimT said:
Sums up my feeling. Less than 10% chance of Trump victory, but not zero.Sean_F said:
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.RochdalePioneers said:Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...0 -
It's just a continuation of the failed referendum campaign, which was notable as being for or against Leave, with few if any arguments for Remain.bigjohnowls said:On Topic - FFS If the moon was made of cheese it would be Corbyns fault that we werent all getting free cheese sandwiches delivered hourly.
Total dreamland that people would vote in a GE for a stop BREXIT Party0 -
Not technically it isn't, but the circumstances and events necessary to change things enough to alterthe path we are on, in the time that is available, are quite improbable.ThreeQuidder said:
It is too late.YellowSubmarine said:I'd very interesting data and well worth a thread. However as soon as a realignment created a stop Brexit party there would be a counter realignment around a pro Brexit party. Given the Conservatives under May have already grabbed this territory and this is FPTP...... We need some Leave voters to change their mind before it's too late.
0 -
Ah, but is that the kind of contract that becomes void if you file for bankruptcy?PlatoSaid said:Real Donald Trump
Today I introduced my Contract with the American Voter - our economy will be STRONG & our people will be SAFE.
https://t.co/uezUaUp0cd https://t.co/bS6iQTHJLF0 -
UKIP is too high in this poll and the conservatives understatedjustin124 said:Not such a bleak poll for Labour though it still sees the Tory lead up from 6% in late July.
0 -
Wonder if the Anti BREXIT Party could find anyone with a weaker handshake than TF to lead it.Pulpstar said:
The party is actually here. It IS the Lib Dems ^_~bigjohnowls said:On Topic - FFS If the moon was made of cheese it would be Corbyns fault that we werent all getting free cheese sandwiches delivered hourly.
Total dreamland that people would vote in a GE for a stop BREXIT Party
I imagine Chukka/Yvette as weak handshake people rather than 50 SOG types0 -
Denis Skinner
@BolsoverBeast
Unsupported, uncoordinated and nearly crashing down.
Ed Balls is doing for dancing what the Tories have done to the UK economy.0 -
Dennis Skinner watches Strictly!bigjohnowls said:Denis Skinner
@BolsoverBeast
Unsupported, uncoordinated and nearly crashing down.
Ed Balls is doing for dancing what the Tories have done to the UK economy.0 -
The words of a traitor.FF43 said:People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.-1 -
Agreed, there might still be a shock. However 5-1 is not enough to tempt me.RochdalePioneers said:Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
Only 5-1 also tells me that the bookies are not nearly as confident as the likes of 619 in the outcome.0 -
As Donald Trump has never filed for bankruptcy it's difficult to work out what point you are trying to make.Chris said:
Ah, but is that the kind of contract that becomes void if you file for bankruptcy?PlatoSaid said:Real Donald Trump
Today I introduced my Contract with the American Voter - our economy will be STRONG & our people will be SAFE.
https://t.co/uezUaUp0cd https://t.co/bS6iQTHJLF0
