Those crucial words of yours, in brackets, defeat your point.
Not at all. In much of rural southern England, including Witney, the Lib Dems have been the *traditional* challengers to the Conservatives in recent elections. 2015 being the obvious exception, because their vote collapsed so spectacularly, allowing either Labour or Ukip to score a lot of (typically distant) second place results. Only in points, broadly speaking, to the South and West of Oxford are there a substantial concentration of Lib Dem second places.
My contention is that, if there is a significant Lib Dem recovery, we should expect to see a wave of yellow spread over the second place map - but so long as the broader left remains divided, it will be very hard for them to gather enough votes to get over the top and actually beat the Tories in most of their likely target seats. That is all.
Mr. B2, unlikely. Not even chasing hits with the F1 blog, it's more a public record of my bets as well as somewhere for a handful of people from here to comment.
What is also depressing is that brexit has given the SNP a new project and the basics will continue to suffer. Education, policing and NHS are just poor and no one seems to care.
But from where would the explosion come? Some from UKIP (as protesters rather than EU enthusiasts), but the only other real source would be Labour. At a certain point, that split becomes a Goldilocks Zone for the Conservatives.
Thank you! I think there's significant potential for switching from moderate Conservatives who are turned off by the harsh anti-immigrant tone that May's allowed to envelope the Tory party and who are vehemently opposed to leaving the single market. There were plenty of these types in Witney and I suspect many more in London and the university towns.
Will that be those parts of London and the university towns that don't return Tory MPs?
You wouldn't happen to mean places like Oxford East (a Labour hold) and Cambridge and Norwich South (both Labour gains from the Liberal Democrats,) now would you?
The pattern of shattered Labour remnants in the South, outside of London, is mainly a tale of university towns or very high concentrations of BAME voters. Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Luton, Slough... basically outposts of London in the shires.
I do happen to believe that the Yellow Tories will have their time once again, but it may take a generation. So long as Labour survives in strength, there's no room for a new opposition to succeed it, and the pressure holding the Conservative Party together will still remain.
Those crucial words of yours, in brackets, defeat your point.
Not at all. In much of rural southern England, including Witney, the Lib Dems have been the *traditional* challengers to the Conservatives in recent elections. 2015 being the obvious exception, because their vote collapsed so spectacularly, allowing either Labour or Ukip to score a lot of (typically distant) second place results. Only in points, broadly speaking, to the South and West of Oxford are there a substantial concentration of Lib Dem second places.
My contention is that, if there is a significant Lib Dem recovery, we should expect to see a wave of yellow spread over the second place map - but so long as the broader left remains divided, it will be very hard for them to gather enough votes to get over the top and actually beat the Tories in most of their likely target seats. That is all.
The problem in Witney was that Labour could point to the fact that it was second in 2015 and concentrate its resources in areas of strength. Outright hostility wasn't the issue, just lack of belief that the Lib Dems had a credible shot at winning in Labour leaning parts of the constituency. Outside of these areas it was fairly easy to persuade Labour voters to switch.
I suspect in the South West, where the Lib Dems have traditionally been in contention, it shouldn't be too hard to get a chunk of the Labour vote to switch across.
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
I'd very interesting data and well worth a thread. However as soon as a realignment created a stop Brexit party there would be a counter realignment around a pro Brexit party. Given the Conservatives under May have already grabbed this territory and this is FPTP...... We need some Leave voters to change their mind before it's too late. Given it's 10 minutes to Midnight that shit needs to be quick and large. The existing party structure will block Brexit if it becomes unpopular enough quickly enough. So far there is no polling evidence at all that this is happening. To that extent realignment while highly relavent to the future of British politics is so far irrelevant to Brexit.
The existing party structure will block Brexit if it becomes unpopular enough quickly enough. So far there is no polling evidence at all that this is happening.
Indeed, quite the contrary...
"Theresa May is trusted by more than twice as many voters as Jeremy Corbyn to run the economy well and handle Brexit negotiations effectively, according to an Opinium/Observer poll to mark her first 100 days as prime minister.
The findings also show May is regarded as strong, decisive, and able to get things done and stand up for Britain’s interests abroad by more than double the number of voters who attribute these qualities to the Labour leader.
The survey conducted last week indicates that she is still building respect among voters three months into her leadership, despite troubles in her cabinet and heated arguments in parliament over Brexit.
Some 46% of voters now think more positively about her than they did when she became prime minister while only 15% think more negatively, with 51% judging her first 100 days to have been an overall success. This compares with only 29% who said the same of Corbyn 100 days after he was elected Labour leader for the first time in September last year."
The stronger Theresa May gets, the more secure the pro-Brexit position out in the country becomes.
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
That's hardly surprising. Even I in all sincerity would rather Theresa May was handling the Brexit negotiations than the pestilent Jeremy Corbyn. That's the scale of the mess Britain's Left is in.
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
That's hardly surprising. Even I in all sincerity would rather Theresa May was handling the Brexit negotiations than the pestilent Jeremy Corbyn. That's the scale of the mess Britain's Left is in.
As we can all observe, the Left is more divided and less trusted, on the whole, than the Right. Especially if Theresa May can finally succeed in stealing the ex-Tory faction of Ukip's support back from them, she would be leading a near-united Right at perhaps around 45% in the polls against a badly fragmented Left.
We all know what happens under our system when one half of the argument has its act together and the other half is in pieces. Scotland. That's what happens.
I'm not suggesting that the Tories would sweep all before them in a general election under this scenario - Labour is too well dug-in in the deep heartlands to be moved - but it would be a major rout, nonetheless.
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
Sorry I can't access the article but did you get to see Mt Ossorno and Lake Llanquihue? A magical place, felt a lot like Switzerland. Apparently the local area was largely populated by 'Germans' - which meant anyone from Central Europe.
The SNP lost the referendum but won the post referendum election.
The SNP lost... period.
Not a SNP supporter but you can't say their general election performance was anything but stunning
They existed to turn Scotland independent. They failed. End of.
It isn't "End of" though, is it?
Indeed, so long as SNP + Green = majority at Holyrood, the prospect of another independence referendum remains very real. If indyref2 is held and also lost, the campaign for indyref3 will begin the following morning.
Independence only goes on the back burner if and when the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament is removed by the people.
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
May has not set a timetable? I thought there was a clear statement of when Article 50 would be declared?
A stop Brexit party would face the problem that its support rarely went above 40% in any one constituency, assuming that about 50% of Remainers voted for the new party in each seat. I think they could get a good haul of seats in London (perhaps 20-25), and win some university cities, but that's all. They'd probably get a lot of decent second places in the Home Counties, but there are no prizes for second.
So, Greater London would probably be something like 30% Lab, 30% Con, 31% Stop Brexit. The South East something like 42% Con, 26% Stop Brexit, 15% UKIP, 12% Labour. The rest of England maybe Con 34% Stop Brexit 24%, Lab 19%, UKIP 16%.
I'd guess a result along the lines of 360 Con, 150 Lab, 50 Stop Brexit, 13 Others in England and Wales.
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
Nah. Absent a real broad based economic melt down, this party will be lucky to get 5%. Its really just not that important to voters who are not political obsessive. Europe is already trending down the list of items most important to voters, to be replaced by the old faithfuls, Health and Education. Most voters think its a done deal and will get on with their lives unless the wheels really fall off.
Were overturning BrExit to look like a real possibility the reaction might be surprising, we would be in Winchester Byelection territory. All the leavers would be pissed off, as would all the remainers that were really leavers but brought Project Fear, as would all the remainers that were really leavers but trusted Cameron, as would be all the remainers that were real remainers but think the results of the referendum should be honored, that could be more than three quarters of the electorate.
Politicians talk a good line, its what they are paid for, but they know which side of their bread is buttered, no big name is going to risk his career pissing of three quarters off the electorate.
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
I suspect that you are very likely to be proven right on the first point and will probably be vindicated on the second. The third is too pessimistic. The UK is not a superpower but nor is at as inconsequential as you seem to imply.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
I suspect that you are very likely to be proven right on the first point and will probably be vindicated on the second. The third is too pessimistic. The UK is not a superpower but nor is at as inconsequential as you seem to imply.
I think the problem with (3) is that the rest of the world really isn't that pro-free trade. If you look at the G20 countries, there are two big blocs of free trade agreements - NAFTA, and the EU. There are then a few bilateral free trade deals (Canada - Switzerland, USA - Australia, EU - South Korea), and that's about it. There are whole countries that essentially have no free trade outside small customs unions they control (Brazil with Mercosur, Russia).
We will, I'm sure, have no problems securing free trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. (And we may well inherit the EU's agreement with South Korea.)
But after that: name the decent sized country which a strong commitment to free trade?
If you want to get into free trade with the US or with China, you have to accept (and Australia, Japan and South Korea did with TPP, or Switzerland did with its China deal) incredibly lopsided agreements. So, you might have to accept US ISDS tribunals meeting in secret, or you might have a treaty requirement to keep intellectual property law in lockstep with the US, or you might be obliged to open up your financial services industry to Chinese owned firms, while still being locked out of the Chinese market.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
I can't help feeling that Brexit is receding away from us, not getting closer now that May Not has set a timetable. The reality is simple - they haven't got a clue what Brexit means in practice, and she has no parliamentary majority to railroad through whatever they accidentally land on.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
I concur that Brexit will slip through May's political fingers. She really has no idea what Brexit means or even what she wants it to mean. Boris Johnson, who I have long supported, through thick and thin, has shown himself to be a lightweight in a major office of state, and another one who doesn't know what he's doing. Poor old England, stuck with muck all round.
Sadly for Scotland and Northern Ireland it's poor old UK.
Not for long
My rethinking of the issue ( having been broadly wrong about the whole thing ) is Brexit is advanced Stage 3. Stage 1 is Britain stops imagining it's " Imagined Community ". Stage 2 is Britain exhausts it's existing stock of " Imagined Community " which is n longer replenishing. Stage 3 is the constituent parts of Britain start imagining their own new communities. Clearly Scotland started Stage 3 a while ago and it's advanced. For what I call rEngland * the Leave Campaign was the paradigm shft between Sage 2 and 3. The UK is an old and stable institution so the time lag between the legal Community and the Imagined one fraying is long but it's happening.
* rEngland is the new polity comprising England minus the secession of London plus anglophone Wales.
But after that: name the decent sized country which a strong commitment to free trade
And one of the primary reasons is that true free trade necessarily impinges on national sovereignty. This is the great contradiction at the heart of the Thatcherite Leave case against the EU.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
See post above about Trump underperforming his Polling.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Will Brexit happen? Yes.
A good deal from the EU? A lot of us don't believe we have one presently.
The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
We Leavers thought the extreme joy of the night of 24th June could not be beaten.
We were wrong.
The delight that has come from hearing the wailing of an Establishment that held four aces secreted up its sleeve, being beaten by our six-high running flush, for month after month - that has been positively tantric....
The Establishment is still in charge and will remain in charge. If you really want to stick it up them raise their taxes, close down their public schools, give everyone the freedom to roam on their land and support Scottish independence.
Different establishment. The Blairite metropoliticans (regardless of party) have been swept from the scene.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.
16 days to go and anything can happen. And with Trump, that could be anything!
The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
Could you be more specific? Name a similar sized nation outside the EU with better international relationships than we enjoy today.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
Do you have a setting other than whinge?
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?
There's little point engaging with anyone who can't do shades of grey.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
Below should have read shift not sh*t as is it does. Too late to edit. Apologies.
"It's OK to say "shit". It ain't against God!" - Prisoner Boggs, Alien 3
wtf was Alien 3 all about? I regard aliens as the last authentic film in the series, so that Ripley, Hicks and Newt live happily ever after. No one, least of all Hicks and Newt, deserves to die for the sake of the plot of a3, let alone Resurrection.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.
Sums up my feeling. Less than 10% chance of Trump victory, but not zero.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
Do you have a setting other than whinge?
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?
There's little point engaging with anyone who can't do shades of grey.
All 50 of them? If so I've got a tricky conversation with Mrs M coming up later.
The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
Could you be more specific? Name a similar sized nation outside the EU with better international relationships than we enjoy today.
Define "size". Population? GDP? Average penis length?
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
I suspect that you are very likely to be proven right on the first point and will probably be vindicated on the second. The third is too pessimistic. The UK is not a superpower but nor is at as inconsequential as you seem to imply.
I don't think the UK is inconsequential. The Brexit assumption is that the UK will pivot away from the EU to more dynamic parts of the world. For that to happen those dynamic parts of the world will need to be MORE interested in the UK outside of the EU than when it was in. There's no reason to believe they will be more interested. In fact much of their present interest in the UK is that it is seen as an open economy acting as a gateway to the EU. The pivot is probably a false assumption..
I'd very interesting data and well worth a thread. However as soon as a realignment created a stop Brexit party there would be a counter realignment around a pro Brexit party. Given the Conservatives under May have already grabbed this territory and this is FPTP...... We need some Leave voters to change their mind before it's too late.
People made three false assumptions about Brexit. Different false assumptions held by different people:
1. Brexit won't happen. 2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want. 3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
Post of the Month ! Sadly I think that's spot on. Remans are underestimating the likelihood if Brexit happening. Leavers are overestimating the chances of success. The value bet at the moment isn't soft Brexit, Hard Brexit or No Brexit. It's crap Brexit.
Do you have a setting other than whinge?
Do you have a setting other than Ad Hominem ?
There's little point engaging with anyone who can't do shades of grey.
The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
Could you be more specific? Name a similar sized nation outside the EU with better international relationships than we enjoy today.
Define "size". Population? GDP? Average penis length?
Define it however you like. It wasn't me who introduced the subject.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
I think Trump has done enough to lose. He's turned the election into a referendum on him, rather than a referendum on Clinton. But, it's not a done deal.
Sums up my feeling. Less than 10% chance of Trump victory, but not zero.
Trump's strategy of trying to win via the mid-West, is sound. It's his character flaws that have undermined his chances.
I'd very interesting data and well worth a thread. However as soon as a realignment created a stop Brexit party there would be a counter realignment around a pro Brexit party. Given the Conservatives under May have already grabbed this territory and this is FPTP...... We need some Leave voters to change their mind before it's too late.
It is too late.
Not technically it isn't, but the circumstances and events necessary to change things enough to alterthe path we are on, in the time that is available, are quite improbable.
Denis Skinner @BolsoverBeast Unsupported, uncoordinated and nearly crashing down. Ed Balls is doing for dancing what the Tories have done to the UK economy.
Denis Skinner @BolsoverBeast Unsupported, uncoordinated and nearly crashing down. Ed Balls is doing for dancing what the Tories have done to the UK economy.
Don't write Trump off yet. Yet he's appalling. Yes he couldn't have screwed the last month up any harder. Yes the polls.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
Agreed, there might still be a shock. However 5-1 is not enough to tempt me.
Only 5-1 also tells me that the bookies are not nearly as confident as the likes of 619 in the outcome.
Comments
My contention is that, if there is a significant Lib Dem recovery, we should expect to see a wave of yellow spread over the second place map - but so long as the broader left remains divided, it will be very hard for them to gather enough votes to get over the top and actually beat the Tories in most of their likely target seats. That is all.
https://twitter.com/CookTheGreat/status/789449174722850816
..
Mr. B2, unlikely. Not even chasing hits with the F1 blog, it's more a public record of my bets as well as somewhere for a handful of people from here to comment.
The pattern of shattered Labour remnants in the South, outside of London, is mainly a tale of university towns or very high concentrations of BAME voters. Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Luton, Slough... basically outposts of London in the shires.
I do happen to believe that the Yellow Tories will have their time once again, but it may take a generation. So long as Labour survives in strength, there's no room for a new opposition to succeed it, and the pressure holding the Conservative Party together will still remain.
It's easily the best sci-fi Chinese smuggler story I've ever written.
I suspect in the South West, where the Lib Dems have traditionally been in contention, it shouldn't be too hard to get a chunk of the Labour vote to switch across.
Right on cue: latest Opinium/Observer survey: public like Theresa May (and more than they did when she took over,) Lib Dems on 6%...
"Despite the Lib Dems’ impressive performance in last week’s Witney byelection, in which they leapfrogged Labour and Ukip to take second place, there is no sign of a national revival of the party’s fortunes.
Just 13% say they approve of Tim Farron’s leadership of the party with 55% having no view and 33% disapproving, suggesting he is making little impression.
By contrast, 46% of voters approve of the way Theresa May has performed so far against 24% who disapprove.
Just 22% of voters approve of the way Corbyn is leading Labour against 50% who disapprove."
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu
A useful tweet for potentially more than one reason.
"Theresa May is trusted by more than twice as many voters as Jeremy Corbyn to run the economy well and handle Brexit negotiations effectively, according to an Opinium/Observer poll to mark her first 100 days as prime minister.
The findings also show May is regarded as strong, decisive, and able to get things done and stand up for Britain’s interests abroad by more than double the number of voters who attribute these qualities to the Labour leader.
The survey conducted last week indicates that she is still building respect among voters three months into her leadership, despite troubles in her cabinet and heated arguments in parliament over Brexit.
Some 46% of voters now think more positively about her than they did when she became prime minister while only 15% think more negatively, with 51% judging her first 100 days to have been an overall success. This compares with only 29% who said the same of Corbyn 100 days after he was elected Labour leader for the first time in September last year."
The stronger Theresa May gets, the more secure the pro-Brexit position out in the country becomes.
A sadly defunct MUD I used to play had a weapon, a wand of rremoval. It turned, for example 'white shirts' into 'white shits'.
We all know what happens under our system when one half of the argument has its act together and the other half is in pieces. Scotland. That's what happens.
I'm not suggesting that the Tories would sweep all before them in a general election under this scenario - Labour is too well dug-in in the deep heartlands to be moved - but it would be a major rout, nonetheless.
Without a definition of "Brexit" that does mean logically a majority against it - a general election could see a Tory led soft Brexit position a UKIP hard Brexit position an English Democrats (?) Foreigners out position against Labour the LibDems SNP Plaid the Greens all wanting to stay in at least the single market.
A progressive alliance of parties all clear that we stay in the single market, an alliance in the national interest to face down this crisis would walk the election. But it won't happen. Because Corbyn.
Con 39%
Lab 30%
UKIP 13%
SNP 6%
LD 6%
Greens 4%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/22/twice-voters-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-economy-brexit-opinium-observer-poll?CMP=twt_gu
Independence only goes on the back burner if and when the pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament is removed by the people.
Clegg? Osborne? Corbyn? Sturgeon?
Put a name on it and all the Tory, Labour, SNP etc loathing will surface,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCqFCCgU1xk
—Sue accusers
—Break up media companies
—US pays for wall, Mexico 'reimburses'
So, Greater London would probably be something like 30% Lab, 30% Con, 31% Stop Brexit. The South East something like 42% Con, 26% Stop Brexit, 15% UKIP, 12% Labour. The rest of England maybe Con 34% Stop Brexit 24%, Lab 19%, UKIP 16%.
I'd guess a result along the lines of 360 Con, 150 Lab, 50 Stop Brexit, 13 Others in England and Wales.
Were overturning BrExit to look like a real possibility the reaction might be surprising, we would be in Winchester Byelection territory. All the leavers would be pissed off, as would all the remainers that were really leavers but brought Project Fear, as would all the remainers that were really leavers but trusted Cameron, as would be all the remainers that were real remainers but think the results of the referendum should be honored, that could be more than three quarters of the electorate.
Politicians talk a good line, its what they are paid for, but they know which side of their bread is buttered, no big name is going to risk his career pissing of three quarters off the electorate.
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/index.html
Taniel – Verified account @Taniel
Early voting turnout is up by 63.3% in Northern Virginia (over 2012); it's down 0.4% in the rest of the state. http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting …
1. Brexit won't happen.
2. EU partners are desperate to give us what we want.
3. We will negotiate a new world order that doesn't involve the EU.
In fact: Brexit will happen, we won't get a good deal from the EU and the rest of the world will effectively ignore us.
Sorry.
We will, I'm sure, have no problems securing free trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand and Canada. (And we may well inherit the EU's agreement with South Korea.)
But after that: name the decent sized country which a strong commitment to free trade?
If you want to get into free trade with the US or with China, you have to accept (and Australia, Japan and South Korea did with TPP, or Switzerland did with its China deal) incredibly lopsided agreements. So, you might have to accept US ISDS tribunals meeting in secret, or you might have a treaty requirement to keep intellectual property law in lockstep with the US, or you might be obliged to open up your financial services industry to Chinese owned firms, while still being locked out of the Chinese market.
And yet Clinton. Ms Continuity Hi America You're Screwed.
On paper she wins big. But the main thing we've all realised in recent years is that paper elections often fail to deliver real results. How many Americans wouldn't dare say publically they'd vote for Him but really can't vote for her and more of the same. Shy voters are still voters.
Anywhere else, against any other candidate, and Trump should be done. But Clinton. But America...
* rEngland is the new polity comprising England minus the secession of London plus anglophone Wales.
A good deal from the EU? A lot of us don't believe we have one presently.
The rest of the world ignoring us? Not very likely. A brief perusal of similar size nations says we could reasonably expect constructive and improved arrangements with many that matter.
Today I introduced my Contract with the American Voter - our economy will be STRONG & our people will be SAFE.
https://t.co/uezUaUp0cd https://t.co/bS6iQTHJLF
Total dreamland that people would vote in a GE for a stop BREXIT Party
If so I've got a tricky conversation with Mrs M coming up later.
Population? GDP? Average penis length?
Next week I'm really going to work on my field offices in swing states.
I imagine Chukka/Yvette as weak handshake people rather than 50 SOG types
@BolsoverBeast
Unsupported, uncoordinated and nearly crashing down.
Ed Balls is doing for dancing what the Tories have done to the UK economy.
Only 5-1 also tells me that the bookies are not nearly as confident as the likes of 619 in the outcome.