politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn goes to war with the PLP yet again
Comments
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Midprices at Betfair, 10 hours before the debate:
Clinton 1.215
Trump 6.1
Neither Clinton nor Trump: implied price 76.8
Pence 480
McMullin 625
Kaine 9800 -
I might be suffering from false memory, but I can't recall the term "Customs Union" coming up on PB in the brief discussion we had on Brexit ahead of the referendum. It was all EEA/EFTA, blah, blah, blah, never CU.0
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We can still negotiate our own preferential trade agreements as part of the Customs Union. Turkey has them. I think the constraint is on not being able to set the import tariffs differently from the EU. Thinking about it, my second advantage for leaving the Customs is neutral because that would apply if we were in the Customs Union as well. The only practical advantage of leaving is the ability to set import tariffs at a lower rate than the EU.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 43, you've missed off that the EU deals are there to suit the EU as a whole. A deal (even with us in) that helps Italy, Slovenia and France but harms us would be seen as a positive.
The advantage of our own deals is that they're done in the British national interest, not the EU interest.
With us out (if we leave...), the EU will be even less inclined to care if the deals they negotiate on our behalf harm us and help the EU.0 -
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
If the Unite the Right movement is in full swing then let's just say I'd like to see a consistent pattern of reporting from the other companies before I'll start to believe it (the ICM and YouGov numbers from earlier in the month *may* be the first signs of this happening, but there's still not nearly enough data out there to start drawing conclusions.)0 -
I had never heard about it before after the vote.SandyRentool said:I might be suffering from false memory, but I can't recall the term "Customs Union" coming up on PB in the brief discussion we had on Brexit ahead of the referendum. It was all EEA/EFTA, blah, blah, blah, never CU.
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Moving on from what the majority on here seems to think is a hopeless cause to consider a number of other perhaps more hopeful causes.
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.0 -
Spherical Objects.stodge said:
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
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Hmm...as you were the one who started harping on about using national polls as a guide to by election results, I'll take that as a disaster for the Conservatives if they don't get at least 65% in Witney.TCPoliticalBetting said:Spherical Objects.
Many thanks.
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You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOSMortimer said:
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?0 -
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Spherical Objects.stodge said:
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.0 -
Get on the blower to OGH, we need smiling Theresas as we used to have the smiling Gordons.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOSMortimer said:
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?0 -
The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the Scotland figures - Lab 24% Con 22%.0
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If you are part of the Single Market (EEA) you have tariff free access to the EU for goods, services and agricultural products. You don't need the more limited access of the Customs Union.SandyRentool said:I might be suffering from false memory, but I can't recall the term "Customs Union" coming up on PB in the brief discussion we had on Brexit ahead of the referendum. It was all EEA/EFTA, blah, blah, blah, never CU.
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Committee chairs results to be announced right now..0
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Ah yes, parish by elections are the true indicator of party support in the country.MarkSenior said:
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Spherical Objects.stodge said:
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
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Cameron got his 52% while in Opposition, in September 2008,TheScreamingEagles said:
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOSMortimer said:
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
I am just pointing out that you either have a selective system or a comprehensive system. You can't have both at the same time. So you can't use the argument that not having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a grammar without acknowledging that having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a comprehensive. It is only a comprehensive school if it has the full range of abilities.NorvilleRogersIII said:
Sorry are you saying that children in areas with Grammar schools don't have the chance to go to the local comprehensive? Is that so?Recidivist said:
But children who live in areas where education is allocated selectively don't have the chance to attend non-selective schools. (That's even before we get onto whether or not attending a grammar school is actually an advantage for those selected, whether it is a good way to allocate publically provided resources and whether we even have the tests that can select appropriately.)NorvilleRogersIII said:@Recidivist
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.0 -
Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.0 -
Utter nonsense as a premise. 'The case' is no longer being scrutinised. The equivalent would actually be the decision to go to war in Iraq having been decided, and the conduct of the campaign being scrutinised by Iain Duncan Smith. Which would seem perfectly valid to me.williamglenn said:Having Kate Hoey scrutinise Brexit is like having IDS scrutinise the case for the Iraq war.
There is every bit as much justification for a committed Eurosceptic to scrutinise this process as there is for a Europhile to scrutinise it.
This thread has clearly been written in anger. Bit embarrassing.0 -
Cameron managed to motivate people to vote Tory in local elections only a few months ago .SeanT said:
There's no motivation to vote Tory in locals. Corbyn can't get in to government via locals. And people are bored of politics and voting. Hence the disparity between polls and council elections.MarkSenior said:
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Spherical Objects.stodge said:
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
Be assured, when and if May faces Corbyn in 2020, the Tories will come out, in many millions.0 -
Benn beats Hoey
Cooper beats Umunna and Flint0 -
It's misleading.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/10/19/new-macbook-pro-without-standard-usb-ports-to-be-launched-by-app/
No surprise given Apple's hatred of standards.
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.0 -
Texas is close. I may be tempted if I was Clinton to invest in Texas and Arizona. Turning them purple would screw up the republicans for future elections. Gerogia maybe as well: early voting among minorities is up there apparently.stodge said:Moving on from what the majority on here seems to think is a hopeless cause to consider a number of other perhaps more hopeful causes.
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.0 -
Can anyone tell us what's actually wrong with having businesses in Russia? I'm struggling.logical_song said:
Make Russia Great Again.619 said:oooooohhhhh. Trump connections with Russa proven
https://twitter.com/funder/status/7880404114073436180 -
Damian Collins for Culture etc0
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You are the only one on here to have mentioned parish elections . What is your fixation with them ?RobD said:
Ah yes, parish by elections are the true indicator of party support in the country.MarkSenior said:
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Spherical Objects.stodge said:
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.0 -
It's very open to question whether that's a bright spot. Labour would rather have its support where it could win seats. 24% in Scotland isn't going to improve the seat tally. If Labour is going to poll at 29% across Britain as a whole, it either wants to poll much more strongly in Scotland or much more weakly.justin124 said:The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the Scotland figures - Lab 24% Con 22%.
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Good point. Still means I have to buy *yet another* adaptor for my USB-A external drives. Not to mention the reported demise of the headphone jack and magsafe adaptor (which seems like a massive downgrade when you do eventually trip over your power cable).Indigo said:
It's misleading.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/10/19/new-macbook-pro-without-standard-usb-ports-to-be-launched-by-app/
No surprise given Apple's hatred of standards.
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.0 -
That's a bit disingenuous, how exactly are you supposed to negotiate a trade agreement of any sort when you are in control of neither the tariffs of the NTBs security/environment/law enforcement standards at the border ?FF43 said:2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so may have a higher chance of success than the EU for deals still to be signed.
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''There's no motivation to vote Tory in locals. Corbyn can't get in to government via locals. And people are bored of politics and voting. Hence the disparity between polls and council elections.''
Are you saying voters are quite happy to let the libs clean the toilets, but no way are they getting into the boardroom?0 -
Stephen Metcalfe for Technology and Science select committee0
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I'll be doing a thread on it tonight.RobD said:
Get on the blower to OGH, we need smiling Theresas as we used to have the smiling Gordons.TheScreamingEagles said:
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOSMortimer said:
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
I've got something spectacular planned.0 -
I admit, sarcasm is quite hard to detect on the internet.MarkSenior said:
You are the only one on here to have mentioned parish elections . What is your fixation with them ?RobD said:
Ah yes, parish by elections are the true indicator of party support in the country.MarkSenior said:
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .TCPoliticalBetting said:
Spherical Objects.stodge said:
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.AlastairMeeks said:The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
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Ouch.... Corbyn won't be happy about that.SeanT said:Benn
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That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?0 -
taffys said:
''There's no motivation to vote Tory in locals. Corbyn can't get in to government via locals. And people are bored of politics and voting. Hence the disparity between polls and council elections.''
Are you saying voters are quite happy to let the libs clean the toilets, but no way are they getting into the boardroom? 0 -
Yeah the headphones and magsafe stuff is idiotic, but USB-C is 5GB/s and can carry enough power to run pretty much any device without requiring it to have its own power supply, and in many ways more importantly is dramatically more robust.RobD said:
Good point. Still means I have to buy *yet another* adaptor for my USB-A external drives. Not to mention the reported demise of the headphone jack and magsafe adaptor (which seems like a massive downgrade when you do eventually trip over your power cable).Indigo said:
It's misleading.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/10/19/new-macbook-pro-without-standard-usb-ports-to-be-launched-by-app/
No surprise given Apple's hatred of standards.
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.0 -
Hmm. I think yes amongst the two candidates personally that makes sense. A Remain vs Leave comparison is more apt when looking at their respective voter pools however. Trump will be largely fishing for votes in the same pool as Brexit did, those people may well vote trump in spite of Trump, it's the movement he represents (however poorly he is representing it currently). The question is whether he can top that up with enough republican loyalists to get him over the line (much like leave had to do with Hannanites and Marxists joining the populist voters). I think it's unlikely now but bet there is a lot of shy trumpers and it will be much closer than current polling suggests.Essexit said:
Good point. Clinton vs. Trump is not really Remain vs. Leave, as some here have suggested, but Remain vs. Remain.stodge said:Afternoon all
(snip)
To this observer, the pro-Trump, or should that be anti-HRC elements are making the same mistake the REMAIN side made in the EU Referendum. While I have heard loads of vitriol explaining why I shouldn't vote for HRC, I've heard almost nothing saying why I should vote FOR Trump.
As with REMAIN, Trump plays to the fear and to the anger but offers nothing positive or hopeful. There's something about cutting taxes and making America "great again" (whatever that means) but the personalisation of the message (I'm Donald, I know what I'm doing) is almost as bad as Cameron's which was essentially "Trust me, I'm Dave".
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Why on EARTH would we do that? We LOSE money under the current arrangements.Casino_Royale said:On the customs union I think it is possible the U.K. stays in it for Goods (a la Turkey) whilst retaining some latitude to negotiate on services and non-tariff barriers outwith it, but it would mean obeying all EU rules on product standards without having a say.
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Yeah. I suppose one port could be used for all my external things while the other is used for charging. Still feels like a downgrade from what I have right now .Of course, I don't have to get a new one. How is the port dramatically more robust? Can't say I've ever had an old USB port break on me.Indigo said:
Yeah the headphones and magsafe stuff is idiotic, but USB-C is 5GB/s and can carry enough power to run pretty much any device without requiring it to have its own power supply, and in many ways more importantly is dramatically more robust.RobD said:
Good point. Still means I have to buy *yet another* adaptor for my USB-A external drives. Not to mention the reported demise of the headphone jack and magsafe adaptor (which seems like a massive downgrade when you do eventually trip over your power cable).Indigo said:
It's misleading.RobD said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/10/19/new-macbook-pro-without-standard-usb-ports-to-be-launched-by-app/
No surprise given Apple's hatred of standards.
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.0 -
Mr Song is a corbynite, having business anywhere is bad, especially if it makes a profitLuckyguy1983 said:
Can anyone tell us what's actually wrong with having businesses in Russia? I'm struggling.logical_song said:
Make Russia Great Again.619 said:oooooohhhhh. Trump connections with Russa proven
https://twitter.com/funder/status/788040411407343618
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I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
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Nothing, it’s why Obama's signed up to trade relations with Russia and Moldova in 2012,Luckyguy1983 said:
Can anyone tell us what's actually wrong with having businesses in Russia? I'm struggling.logical_song said:
Make Russia Great Again.619 said:oooooohhhhh. Trump connections with Russa proven
ttps://twitter.com/funder/status/7880404114073436180 -
I think there is a lot in what you say regarding Mori's volatility. The sample size is only 625 for those giving a voting intention , though I am not quite sure what that implies re-MOE.It certainly does not confirm ICM's huge gender gap which showed a 30% Tory lead for women compared with 11% for men. Mori shows a 25% Con lead for men and a Con lead of 11% for women. Who to believe?Black_Rook said:
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
)0 -
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/georgia/stodge said:
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
One poll, but it does look like an outlier (and has a poor rating from 538).0 -
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/georgia/stodge said:
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
Surveymonkey had Clinton with a +50 -
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money. 0 -
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides* -1 -
Yeah, close wasn't it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides*0 -
Looking at the polls, there is a Survey Monkey poll showing Clinton 4 points ahead, but it seems to be an outlier. RCP has Trump ahead by 5.3, and 538 by 2.4.stodge said:
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?0 -
Oh dear.
Bloomberg
@business
Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh0 -
I see I hit the mark the other daySunil_Prasannan said:
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides* 0 -
Women voters love having a female PM. That probably explains the big rise in Tory support.SeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....0 -
Unfortunately for you a majority of 1 is all you need in an election.logical_song said:
Yeah, close wasn't it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides*0 -
I am not sure why you find the two results so hard to square. Quite a few people who voted to leave accepted that there might be a hit to their standard of living if we did leave.SeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
"Soft Brexit", whatever that means, is irrelevant.0 -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/logical_song said:
Yeah, close wasn't it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides*
*Sunil whistles innocently*
0 -
That's true I guess semantically. I meant they had the choice not to go to a grammar, and I shouldn't think the non grammars would be worse than the comprehensive they replace, but I suppose that's the key argument.Recidivist said:
I am just pointing out that you either have a selective system or a comprehensive system. You can't have both at the same time. So you can't use the argument that not having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a grammar without acknowledging that having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a comprehensive. It is only a comprehensive school if it has the full range of abilities.NorvilleRogersIII said:
Sorry are you saying that children in areas with Grammar schools don't have the chance to go to the local comprehensive? Is that so?Recidivist said:
But children who live in areas where education is allocated selectively don't have the chance to attend non-selective schools. (That's even before we get onto whether or not attending a grammar school is actually an advantage for those selected, whether it is a good way to allocate publically provided resources and whether we even have the tests that can select appropriately.)NorvilleRogersIII said:@Recidivist
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.0 -
Carney really hates savers doesn't he?TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh dear.
Bloomberg
@business
Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh0 -
Mr. Betting, I bloody well hope not.
We'll see. Carney's not impressed in recent months.
Mr. Felix, au contraire, it's what happens when the Bank of England is under the stewardship of a Remain-backing foreigner (who also closed the old bank at the, er, Bank).0 -
It's an entirely Corbynite resultSeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...0 -
If you are a left leaner, you vote Labour even though you know taxes are going to go up and you are going to be poorer, because it makes the world better, or at least it make you think the world is better, or possibly it just makes you feel good about thinking the world might be better. In anycase the cost is incidental and acceptable within certain limits.SeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
I think the same is true of a lot of Leave voters, its just that the load of mercantilist free-traders we have on here cannot conceive of anything which costs them more being better under any circumstance.0 -
I can't see him staying around long.TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh dear.
Bloomberg
@business
Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh0 -
A couple of polls today say she is ahead by 4/5pts. Washington Post and a GOP private poll.stodge said:
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?0 -
You are the AveiT of the Lib Dems.stodge said:
Hmm...as you were the one who started harping on about using national polls as a guide to by election results, I'll take that as a disaster for the Conservatives if they don't get at least 65% in Witney.TCPoliticalBetting said:Spherical Objects.
Many thanks.
0 -
If this opinion poll were reflected in Witney the Tories would get about 70% of the vote.0
-
From an electoral angle it may be a good idea for Corbyn to put a labour leaver in a senior role on the Brexit committee. Brexit was ultimately achieved by labour voters. If Corbyn is bothered by labour surviving, of course, these voters need to keep voting labour.
Its hard to see where this stop brexit movement, which no doubt Benn will epitomise, is going to achieve. The aim seems to be to rule out hard brexit. But as we know, this then weakens our negotiating stance considerably.
I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.0 -
I hope not. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well. It were done quickly:brokenwheel said:
I can't see him staying around long.TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh dear.
Bloomberg
@business
Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh
I gain on these rate cuts, but the country loses. Carney has to go.
0 -
Quite possibly so. I detect little real enthusiasm for Mrs May.Scott_P said:
It's an entirely Corbynite resultSeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...
She is just the last one standing after the implosion of all competing parties. In the land of the blind the one eyed woman is Queen.0 -
I suspect your social circle does not include many people who would normally be enthused by a Tory leader?foxinsoxuk said:
Quite possibly so. I detect little real enthusiasm for Mrs May.Scott_P said:
It's an entirely Corbynite resultSeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...
She is just the last one standing after the implosion of all competing parties. In the land of the blind the one eyed woman is Queen.
0 -
Hobson's choice. As soon as it was clear that Cameron had stopped the Civil Service from doing any contingency work on a Leave vote, and basically did sod all during the leadership campaign, it was obvious that May was going to have to start from scratch, and only a fool would trigger Article 50 without having sounded out partners and got a team together and thrashed out a basic position.nielh said:I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
0 -
So Benn gets the job after all. And Cooper not Umunna.0
-
"Hell yes, I'm tough enough!" - Ed Miliband, 2015.Scott_P said:
It's an entirely Corbynite resultSeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...-1 -
''I hope not. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well. It were done quickly:
I gain on these rate cuts, but the country loses. Carney has to go.''
Been calling for it for months. Carney is determined that Brexit has to have an effect. It just has to. And he is determined to provoke that effect.
Utterly discredited.0 -
Maybe they misread it and it actually said 1% instead. That would be a much better move.TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh dear.
Bloomberg
@business
Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh0 -
I see the bbc is engaging in classic bias by omission over the migrant
adultskids story. Not showing pictures of the most obviously dodgy examples of individuals claiming to be kids and clearly not, no mention of home office own figures showing 2/3s of similar cases are found not to be kids & failing to mention the dodgy background of the family of the kid lily Allen met.
Instead the focus is on the outrage that anybody would question any of this.0 -
Mrs Indigo (Snr) reports that she is going down extremely well with the Hereford rural purple rinsers, many of whom were flirting with the kippers before the GE. Comments are apparently along the lines of it being nice to have a "proper" Tory back in No.10RobD said:
I suspect your social circle does not include many people who would normally be enthused by a Tory leader?foxinsoxuk said:
Quite possibly so. I detect little real enthusiasm for Mrs May.Scott_P said:
It's an entirely Corbynite resultSeanT said:I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB
Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...
She is just the last one standing after the implosion of all competing parties. In the land of the blind the one eyed woman is Queen.0 -
Well, if those were accurate, it would suggest that about half a dozen states where Trump has been leading so far were vulnerable, including Texas.Jobabob said:
A couple of polls today say she is ahead by 4/5pts. Washington Post and a GOP private poll.stodge said:
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?0 -
It's always a bit of a guessing game, of course, but I reckon that the pollsters were reasonably close at the last GE (bar the all-important 3% Lab to Con swing, which spoiled everything,) so the mean of all of the recent polling figures probably isn't too far from the truth, either.justin124 said:
I think there is a lot in what you say regarding Mori's volatility. The sample size is only 625 for those giving a voting intention , though I am not quite sure what that implies re-MOE.It certainly does not confirm ICM's huge gender gap which showed a 30% Tory lead for women compared with 11% for men. Mori shows a 25% Con lead for men and a Con lead of 11% for women. Who to believe?Black_Rook said:
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.HurstLlama said:@Mortimer
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
)
So, if we go to the latest published version of the Britain Elects spreadsheet (which doesn't yet include today's Ipsos,) and simply tot up the 22 polls shown for the period since the start of August, you get the following mean values:
Con 40%
Lab 29%
LD 8%
Ukip 12%
Or you could read that as Con 43%, Lab 26% if you remain to be convinced that the pollsters have properly corrected their anti-Tory bias...0 -
The polls are wrong.
There is no way that Labour are that high with Corbyn in charge.0 -
I cannot see TX going or GA, but who knows?Chris said:
Well, if those were accurate, it would suggest that about half a dozen states where Trump has been leading so far were vulnerable, including Texas.Jobabob said:
A couple of polls today say she is ahead by 4/5pts. Washington Post and a GOP private poll.stodge said:
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.Chris said:
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.stodge said:
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?0 -
Interesting how some gleefully tell us a Liberal surprise is on the cards in Witney when they are 40% behind in opinion polls yet mock anyone who suggests it is still possible that Trump might win when he is 4% behind in opinion polls.SeanT said:
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.david_herdson said:Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.0 -
It's Ipsos, so Labour are probably really in the mid 20s.Jobabob said:The polls are wrong.
There is no way that Labour are that high with Corbyn in charge.0 -
On topic:
Is Corbyn actually being fairly astute over Brexit? He has very little in common with Hoey politically, but by supporting a prominent Labour Leaver, he may well be on the way to ideas to recapture the WWC Leave vote for the Left (which I think has been his longstanding view).
A hard Brexit with defensive tariffs, import substitution and government interference in industry is just his cup of tea.0 -
The key thing is that it's a Republican slump not a Dem surge. So this means if anything happens to motivate the Rep base then Republican numbers could jump up rapidly in these Red states wiping out Hilary's current leads/gains.stodge said:Moving on from what the majority on here seems to think is a hopeless cause to consider a number of other perhaps more hopeful causes.
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.
I'm not tempted.0 -
That was me!!!Jobabob said:As the wise man on here said: May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Still true. May reigns supreme in the absence of a viable offer from anyone else. And at the end of the day she feels like "one of us" to large swathes of Tory Britain in a way we haven't seen for a generation.
But if Brexit and/or economy falter, she'll have issues, and as the PM polling shows she is not loved.
Good to see UKIP down too.
On committee chairs the "right" decisions seem to have been made. It feels like parliament is at the centre of our politics again which is very very healthy.0 -
- More people than voted for anything everlogical_song said:
Yeah, close wasn't it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides*
- 1.4 million people more for Leave
- Massive turnout
- Remain had almost every conceivable advantage0 -
It doesn't seem to do them much good.TCPoliticalBetting said:Bloomberg
@business
Economists think ....
0 -
Mr. Urquhart, indeed. The day the children/'children' came over, the footage used was of the bus/coach that drove them in.
Mr. Taffys, if Carney cuts rates, with inflation rising and the pound falling, it'd back up your claim.
The deputy doughnut (I forget her name) who advocated low rates for years to come seems equally bonkers.0 -
Step forward Andrea Leadsom and Ian Duncan Smith!Indigo said:
Hobson's choice. As soon as it was clear that Cameron had stopped the Civil Service from doing any contingency work on a Leave vote, and basically did sod all during the leadership campaign, it was obvious that May was going to have to start from scratch, and only a fool would trigger Article 50 without having sounded out partners and got a team together and thrashed out a basic position.nielh said:I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
The point was that people like Jeremy Hunt, who said we wouldn't do it until 2020, were moved out of the picture. Mays mistake was to commit to triggering article 50. She got bounced in to it by the leavers that were surrounding her and the prospect of needing to be elected by the tory grassroots. I'm pretty convinced that had Leadsom not stepped down, she had a good chance of winning a vote in the grassroots.
0 -
They did both oppose the Maastricht Treaty!foxinsoxuk said:On topic:
Is Corbyn actually being fairly astute over Brexit? He has very little in common with Hoey politically, but by supporting a prominent Labour Leaver, he may well be on the way to ideas to recapture the WWC Leave vote for the Left (which I think has been his longstanding view).
A hard Brexit with defensive tariffs, import substitution and government interference in industry is just his cup of tea.0 -
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.0 -
Close but no cigarEssexit said:
- More people than voted for anything everlogical_song said:
Yeah, close wasn't it.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hi felix! How is you today?felix said:
I think you mean 'looks like brexit money'Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, saw my first new fiver today.
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides*
- 1.4 million people more for Leave
- Massive turnout
- Remain had almost every conceivable advantage
Nadal/Federer in the 2008 Wimbledon Championship.
6–4, 6–4, 6–7(5–7), 6–7(8–10), 9–7
That was a close match.
One of them was the champion afterwards, and one wasn't.0 -
Even if the opposition parties were to underperform, I'd be astonished if the Tories scored 70% of the entire vote in Witney. By-elections ≠ general elections.AndyJS said:If this opinion poll were reflected in Witney the Tories would get about 70% of the vote.
0 -
So we are going to increase our beef production, right...?
https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/7887499215874908160
