I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
It's an entirely Corbynite result
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...
Quite possibly so. I detect little real enthusiasm for Mrs May.
She is just the last one standing after the implosion of all competing parties. In the land of the blind the one eyed woman is Queen.
I suspect your social circle does not include many people who would normally be enthused by a Tory leader?
Mrs Indigo (Snr) reports that she is going down extremely well with the Hereford rural purple rinsers, many of whom were flirting with the kippers before the GE. Comments are apparently along the lines of it being nice to have a "proper" Tory back in No.10
As the wise man on here said: May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
That was me!!!
Still true. May reigns supreme in the absence of a viable offer from anyone else. And at the end of the day she feels like "one of us" to large swathes of Tory Britain in a way we haven't seen for a generation.
But if Brexit and/or economy falter, she'll have issues, and as the PM polling shows she is not loved.
Good to see UKIP down too.
On committee chairs the "right" decisions seem to have been made. It feels like parliament is at the centre of our politics again which is very very healthy.
Yes, well your point was very well made.
Think of the French presidential election when Chirac faced Le Pen Sr* in a runoff. Chirac won big. That didn't mean there was huge popular support for Chirac, merely that the alternative was far, far worse.
*Even I wouldn't want to compare Corbyn with Le Pen – but the general point stands
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
I would like to support the LDs. As a Remainer voting right-leaning moderate, they're the only alternative to what I worry are Brownian motions from May.
But Farron's such a pipsqueak and so far I haven't seen any...seriousness...from them. Perhaps if they were honest about why they were trounced at the last election, and what their game plan is supposed to be today.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
Re: Ukip - we shouldn't jump to conclusions based on one, possibly outlying, poll. A Ukip-Con movement may be in progress, but much more evidence is needed.
The Lib Dems are currently a minor party, therefore the fact that they poll like one (in terms of the nationwide average, at any rate) does not come as any great surprise.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
The LDs won the Ribble Valley by-election in 1991 when they were on about 8% in the opinion polls; they don't always match up.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.
If the Unite the Right movement is in full swing then let's just say I'd like to see a consistent pattern of reporting from the other companies before I'll start to believe it (the ICM and YouGov numbers from earlier in the month *may* be the first signs of this happening, but there's still not nearly enough data out there to start drawing conclusions.)
The Tories were on 43% with the previous non-Ipsos opinion poll a few days ago.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
If this opinion poll were reflected in Witney the Tories would get about 70% of the vote.
Even if the opposition parties were to underperform, I'd be astonished if the Tories scored 70% of the entire vote in Witney. By-elections ≠ general elections.
I wasn't suggesting they'd actually get 70%. Around 50% is my expectation.
Bloomberg @business Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh
While I'd quite like my mortgage rate to drop to under 0.3% if just to photograph the notification it does seem to be the wrong way. Interest rates should go up to 1% at the minimum to stop an inflation overshoot and to start to gently deflate asset bubbles
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
You've got to wonder don't you. All that sound and fury by remainers signifying...nothing. Its not like Labour has gone all out to get the 48% either. Corbyn remains studiously ambiguous (well as studious as his intellectual capacity allows) about this as Southam has pointed out with this very thread.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
Re: Ukip - we shouldn't jump to conclusions based on one, possibly outlying, poll. A Ukip-Con movement may be in progress, but much more evidence is needed.
The Lib Dems are currently a minor party, therefore the fact that they poll like one (in terms of the nationwide average, at any rate) does not come as any great surprise.
UKIP have been on the slide since June and find new and imaginative ways of committing hari-kari almost every day. I seriously wonder if a party of that name will even be standing in 2020.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
Re: Ukip - we shouldn't jump to conclusions based on one, possibly outlying, poll. A Ukip-Con movement may be in progress, but much more evidence is needed.
The Lib Dems are currently a minor party, therefore the fact that they poll like one (in terms of the nationwide average, at any rate) does not come as any great surprise.
UKIP have been on the slide since June and find new and imaginative ways of committing hari-kari almost every day. I seriously wonder if a party of that name will even be standing in 2020.
No way that UKIP would get just 6% tomorrow. Certainly not at the election. 10% perhaps.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
I'm not surprised at all. I would imagine that the EU question was never a prime motivator for most of the electorate in terms of which party they chose to back, and almost everyone for whom it was critical backed the Leave side.
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
From an electoral angle it may be a good idea for Corbyn to put a labour leaver in a senior role on the Brexit committee. Brexit was ultimately achieved by labour voters. If Corbyn is bothered by labour surviving, of course, these voters need to keep voting labour.
Its hard to see where this stop brexit movement, which no doubt Benn will epitomise, is going to achieve. The aim seems to be to rule out hard brexit. But as we know, this then weakens our negotiating stance considerably.
I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
Just an opinion but I think that by-and-large the Labour voters that supported Leave are the least ideologically committed to Brexit.
They are the ones that believed in the £350m a week for the NHS stuff, they are largely in that group of 58% of Leavers that expect to be better off after Brexit. If I am correct then they will be the first to turn against Brexit if and when the going gets tough.
The much heralded UKIP breakthrough to win heartland Labour seats looks more of a pipe dream than ever right now.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.
If the Unite the Right movement is in full swing then let's just say I'd like to see a consistent pattern of reporting from the other companies before I'll start to believe it (the ICM and YouGov numbers from earlier in the month *may* be the first signs of this happening, but there's still not nearly enough data out there to start drawing conclusions.)
The Tories were on 43% with the previous non-Ipsos opinion poll a few days ago.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
I would like to support the LDs. As a Remainer voting right-leaning moderate, they're the only alternative to what I worry are Brownian motions from May.
But Farron's such a pipsqueak and so far I haven't seen any...seriousness...from them. Perhaps if they were honest about why they were trounced at the last election, and what their game plan is supposed to be today.
As a liberal tory I worry greatly about May's nannyish and authoritarian tendencies and would welcome an opposition which questions whether the State is always right. Even when it is a Tory state. But they just seem so irrelevant. Maybe it will look different when Witney comes in but I doubt it.
I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Not all about the money. We've been here before.
Most recently in the context of a poll showing that virtually no one voted either for or against Brexit in the belief that their chosen option would make people worse off!
The sacred electorate seems to think it's very much about the money.
I suspect 20% are not happy because they're dyed in the wool Remainers?
More seriously, you do see that losing 20% of member support but gaining huge numbers of voters is a plus with an enfeebled opposition, don't you?
It means we win a bigger majority next time....
When Dave did it, he was a Lib Dem?
But the truly alarming thing, she's doing worse than Gordon Brown at the equivalent stage.
What is truly alarming for you lot is with the people split 52/48 over the biggest political issue since the universal franchise, her rating at 80% is massively higher at 80%.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.
)
I think there is a lot in what you say regarding Mori's volatility. The sample size is only 625 for those giving a voting intention , though I am not quite sure what that implies re-MOE.It certainly does not confirm ICM's huge gender gap which showed a 30% Tory lead for women compared with 11% for men. Mori shows a 25% Con lead for men and a Con lead of 11% for women. Who to believe?
It's always a bit of a guessing game, of course, but I reckon that the pollsters were reasonably close at the last GE (bar the all-important 3% Lab to Con swing, which spoiled everything,) so the mean of all of the recent polling figures probably isn't too far from the truth, either.
So, if we go to the latest published version of the Britain Elects spreadsheet (which doesn't yet include today's Ipsos,) and simply tot up the 22 polls shown for the period since the start of August, you get the following mean values:
Con 40% Lab 29% LD 8% Ukip 12%
Or you could read that as Con 43%, Lab 26% if you remain to be convinced that the pollsters have properly corrected their anti-Tory bias...
There are some commentators who suspect that the pollsters may have over compensated .
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
I'm not surprised at all. I would imagine that the EU question was never a prime motivator for most of the electorate in terms of which party they chose to back, and almost everyone for whom it was critical backed the Leave side.
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
EU membership is not salient, except with a small minority. Less than 20%
The economy certainly is. Immigration also, but in my view is a bit of a folk devil, and a period of being seen to be "back in control", regardless of immigration volume, would see this issue reduce in importance.
Relatedly, it's why we really don't need pictures of thirty-something refugees on the front pages.
Just on rates: what's the rationale for cutting them?
Its insane but the theory is that reduced rates frees up cash in the system by reducing the outlays of those most likely to spend their money on necessaries and therefore boosts demand. It also helps zombie companies hang around which should prevent spikes in unemployment in most recessions but of course we have not been in recession since 2009 and employment is currently a record high.
It does suggest that the government are entirely sanguine about trashing the pound which will also give the economy a boost over time if it persists.
But we reached the end of this piece of string a long time ago and the effects are now undoubtedly negative.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
I'm not surprised at all. I would imagine that the EU question was never a prime motivator for most of the electorate in terms of which party they chose to back, and almost everyone for whom it was critical backed the Leave side.
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
I'm not surprised at all. I would imagine that the EU question was never a prime motivator for most of the electorate in terms of which party they chose to back, and almost everyone for whom it was critical backed the Leave side.
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
Indeed Eurofanaticism is about as popular a pastime as telegraph pole spotting
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
Re: Ukip - we shouldn't jump to conclusions based on one, possibly outlying, poll. A Ukip-Con movement may be in progress, but much more evidence is needed.
The Lib Dems are currently a minor party, therefore the fact that they poll like one (in terms of the nationwide average, at any rate) does not come as any great surprise.
UKIP have been on the slide since June and find new and imaginative ways of committing hari-kari almost every day. I seriously wonder if a party of that name will even be standing in 2020.
And yet their polling numbers (when you remove the Ipsos blips) are remarkably consistent, and very close to the percentage that they won (and were correctly predicted to win) in last year's GE.
It is not impossible that Ukip has developed a come-what-may, loyalist core vote just like the more established parties - but even if this is not the case, I still maintain that it's too early to be writing them off. The evidence doesn't yet support this.
I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Not all about the money. We've been here before.
Most recently in the context of a poll showing that virtually no one voted either for or against Brexit in the belief that their chosen option would make people worse off!
The sacred electorate seems to think it's very much about the money.
Depends over what timescale. The Remain campaign was wholly predicated on the economy.
I see Watergate 1000x is happening in real-time for all to see - and PBers still aren't much interested.
I give up. Even if you don't care or despise both candidates, this is incredible stuff being dumped by the skipload. It'd fill several years of Sunday papers here - and a news event I never thought I'd witness.
I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
Not all about the money. We've been here before.
Most recently in the context of a poll showing that virtually no one voted either for or against Brexit in the belief that their chosen option would make people worse off!
The sacred electorate seems to think it's very much about the money.
Depends over what timescale. The Remain campaign was wholly predicated on the economy.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
Re: Ukip - we shouldn't jump to conclusions based on one, possibly outlying, poll. A Ukip-Con movement may be in progress, but much more evidence is needed.
The Lib Dems are currently a minor party, therefore the fact that they poll like one (in terms of the nationwide average, at any rate) does not come as any great surprise.
UKIP have been on the slide since June and find new and imaginative ways of committing hari-kari almost every day. I seriously wonder if a party of that name will even be standing in 2020.
No way that UKIP would get just 6% tomorrow. Certainly not at the election. 10% perhaps.
How many more leaders do you think they will have had by then?
I see Watergate 1000x is happening in real-time for all to see - and PBers still aren't much interested.
I give up. Even if you don't care or despise both candidates, this is incredible stuff being dumped by the skipload. It'd fill several years of Sunday papers here - and a news event I never thought I'd witness.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
I'm not surprised at all. I would imagine that the EU question was never a prime motivator for most of the electorate in terms of which party they chose to back, and almost everyone for whom it was critical backed the Leave side.
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
You are probably right. Nevertheless if Brexit goes sour there will be a lot of Remain voters (and probably some moderate leave voters as well) reconsidering whether the Tories deserve their support next time.
I see Watergate 1000x is happening in real-time for all to see - and PBers still aren't much interested.
I give up. Even if you don't care or despise both candidates, this is incredible stuff being dumped by the skipload. It'd fill several years of Sunday papers here - and a news event I never thought I'd witness.
Ho hum.
"Emails posted by WikiLeaks reveal a buttoned-up campaign that analyzes nearly every decision, mirroring Clinton's reputation as a methodical and tactical politician. And secret transcripts of Clinton's paid speeches behind closed doors on Wall Street have failed to turn up any positions widely different than what she says in public."
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Well they are children after all....but they are also blurring out half the relevant information on the story.
Not seen a single girl in any of these photos. Are these really the most desperate and needy children that could be saved? I suspect there are far more people in the camps in the Middle East that need help more.
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Well they are children after all....but they are also blurring out half the relevant information on the story.
Not seen a single girl in any of these photos. Are these really the most desperate and needy children that could be saved? I suspect there are far more people in the camps in the Middle East that need help more.
Perhaps shamefully for me, I haven't followed this closely. But aren't they from Calais? If so, they're greatly likely to be the kind of person who can get themselves smuggled into Europe and live in a shanty town on the UK's borders -- ie a young man.
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Well they are children after all....but they are also blurring out half the relevant information on the story.
Not seen a single girl in any of these photos. Are these really the most desperate and needy children that could be saved? I suspect there are far more people in the camps in the Middle East that need help more.
Its worse than a farce and all the BBC / Labour can do is jump on the outrage bus about is an MP saying we really should properly check these people's age. I notice BBC also pulling a classic Bad Al move pointing out that one person photo which has been published in the Sun was maybe not a migrant but could have been an interpreter...but fail to mention the 20-30 others photos that look 20-30, rather than 14-17.
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Well they are children after all....but they are also blurring out half the relevant information on the story.
Not seen a single girl in any of these photos. Are these really the most desperate and needy children that could be saved? I suspect there are far more people in the camps in the Middle East that need help more.
Perhaps shamefully for me, I haven't followed this closely. But aren't they from Calais? If so, they're greatly likely to be the kind of person who can get themselves smuggled into Europe and live in a shanty town on the UK's borders -- ie a young man.
Yes - not in desperate need. (I know France is bad, but that's taking the biscuit)
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Well they are children after all....but they are also blurring out half the relevant information on the story.
Not seen a single girl in any of these photos. Are these really the most desperate and needy children that could be saved? I suspect there are far more people in the camps in the Middle East that need help more.
Its worse than a farce and all the BBC / Labour can do is jump on the outrage bus about is an MP saying we really should properly check these people's age. I notice BBC also pulling a classic Bad Al move pointing out that one person photo which has been published in the Sun was maybe not a migrant but could have been an interpreter...but fail to mention the 20-30 others photos that look 20-30, rather than 14-17.
Perhaps they all too could have been interpreters?
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Well they are children after all....but they are also blurring out half the relevant information on the story.
Not seen a single girl in any of these photos. Are these really the most desperate and needy children that could be saved? I suspect there are far more people in the camps in the Middle East that need help more.
Its worse than a farce and all the BBC / Labour can do is jump on the outrage bus about is an MP saying we really should properly check these people's age. I notice BBC also pulling a classic Bad Al move pointing out that one person photo which has been published in the Sun was maybe not a migrant but could have been an interpreter...but fail to mention the 20-30 others photos that look 20-30, rather than 14-17.
Perhaps they all too could have been interpreters?
About as likely as the migrants being aged 14-17....
The government really should have stood firm on this and stuck to the policy of taking those from camps in Turkey.
Instead they basically took a list from a charity and went ok in you come.
The charity Citizens UK, who drew up the list of venerable ‘children’ are a laughing stock.
Yep, but I am guessing nothing will happen because of it.
But sources told the BBC that it is extremely unlikely any would then be returned to Calais as they would be able to claim asylum in the UK regardless of the age.
The message of the system is sending out is clear, lie through your teeth and you will be rewarded...It should be that those in most need, that play by the rules, are the ones that are prioritized.
The charity Citizens UK, who drew up the list of venerable ‘children’ are a laughing stock.
Yep, but I am guessing nothing will happen because of it.
But sources told the BBC that it is extremely unlikely any would then be returned to Calais as they would be able to claim asylum in the UK regardless of the age.
Interesting what wee Timmy Farron said on the news. The liberal elite have shifted from 'unaccompanied children' to 'anyone fleeing war and horror'. How do they even know they are from Syria, let alone a war zone? Could it just be possible that the vast majority of the young men in the Jungle are economic migrants - from all over the Middle East? Could it also be possible that they - perish the thought! - are lying to British and French officials to gain entry to good old Blighty? I don't blame those men trying to gain entry to the UK - who in their right mind wouldn't want access to free healthcare, education, and accommodation for life, no questions or conditions asked or required, no reciprocation whatsoever, for life? And then when you get here, a willing and sizeable part of the establishment happy, ready and willing to accuse their own public of being 'racists', 'bigots', 'Islamophobes', etc, for even daring to question such generosity and the rules applied. Not difficult to see why they risk life and limb to get here, because I know I would.
For every "teenager" we help, we could be helping an actual teenager. And the public's patience is wearing thin, they are in danger of poisoning the well.
The SNP takes things to loony land. Say there's another indyref and Scotland becomes independent and applies to join the EU, and its application is accepted, and then the Brexit negotiations result in rUK leaving the single market with EU27 (or EU28 with Scotland now a member).
The hypothesis breaks down there. If part of the country left in the middle of Brexit negotiations, there's no way on Earth that the rUK would press on with leaving the single market.
That's putting the cart before the horse. The UK is leaving the EU come what may in 2019.
Even if the SNP gets an Independence Referendum there is simply not enough time to organise a referendum, provide the appropriate time for campaigning, hold the referendum then have negotiations for separation and exit before the Article 50 clock runs out and we leave the EU.
You're acting as if a SindyRef Yes vote means Scotland is independent tomorrow, it isn't. Scotland needs independence negotiations with the UK just as much as the UK needs negotiations with the EU. Sindy can't and won't be complete before Brexit negotiations end.
Sindy would throw an almighty spanner in the works that would provide the necessary cover for fudging the Article 50 process or extending it indefinitely. If nothing else, why would the EU continue to offer the same terms to the UK knowing that it is about to be dismembered?
They would have to be prepared to leave with no deal, all the UK negotiators, plus all we can beg, borrow, or steal from our allies are going to be tied up talking with Barnier and Verhofstadt.
We would be leaving debt free and have much reduced needs as we would not be paying Westminster's debts. We would do very well thank you. If not we get share of all UK assets , B of E reserves etc and hey presto still doing fine.
Scot claims the Bank of ENGLAND reserves. I've heard everything now....
I see Watergate 1000x is happening in real-time for all to see - and PBers still aren't much interested.
I give up. Even if you don't care or despise both candidates, this is incredible stuff being dumped by the skipload. It'd fill several years of Sunday papers here - and a news event I never thought I'd witness.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
In light of the Brexit referendum result, must admit to being a tad surprised the LibDems have not benefited more in VI polls from being the most pro EU party. - If it hasn’t materialised in the first 3 months, I doubt it will happen at all.
I'm not surprised at all. I would imagine that the EU question was never a prime motivator for most of the electorate in terms of which party they chose to back, and almost everyone for whom it was critical backed the Leave side.
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
You are probably right. Nevertheless if Brexit goes sour there will be a lot of Remain voters (and probably some moderate leave voters as well) reconsidering whether the Tories deserve their support next time.
And then we are back to the question of where they go. The Lib Dems are not suitable. Their activist base wants them to be centre left, at a time when that position in politics - not just in the UK, but in much of the rest of Europe - is collapsing. Besides which the bulk of Tory voters don't want a centre left alternative (Tony Blair won so convincingly by going very low key on the social democracy, and politics has arguably moved rightwards since his day.) The revolt by the leader against the democratic outcome of the Brexit vote is also a very bad look, and there is nothing to suggest that the Lib Dems would not build a "coalition of the defeated" with the hard left and Scottish nationalism if they were given the chance to do so, which again as anathema to Tory supporters.
Theresa May is closer to the centre of political gravity than Tim Farron is to begin with, and the only challenge to her right comes from the troubled Ukip. If she can succeed in winning back perhaps up to half of the Ukip vote, and persuade what is left of that party to turn itself into a social conservative/big state/protectionist movement explicitly targeting the Labour WWC vote (a little like Marine le Pen's lot in France,) then the Tories can realistically aim for a 45%+ vote share in the next GE.
In the longer term, it is entirely possible that the new main Opposition party could be formed by a split in the Conservatives, after Labour has moved even further leftwards and been marginalised over several electoral cycles.
Not surprising Ipsos gives TM such a huge lead over Corbyn. She was a Remainer and he was a Leaver. His performance was far more damaging to the cause of Remain than hers. People can see the writing on the wall and they're getting very nervous.
Why would anyone trust Corbyn at a time of impending crisis?
He sharply criticised Britain’s preparation for Brexit as “abysmal” and warned that the British population was being guided through an enormous crisis “by inexperienced politicians whose compasses are set not by the interests of the British people but by feelings of emotion and English nationalism”.
He also said Ireland was “grossly unprepared” for Britain’s departure and he criticised the budget which was “completely inadequate in seeking to deal with the threat posed to this country by Brexit”.
Highlighting the vote in Northern Ireland to remain, he said the Government needed to “carefully nourish” the recognition by unionists for the first time that their interests are best served, not by being part of the UK, but by being part of a federal European system.
Comments
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/788774885497663488
Think of the French presidential election when Chirac faced Le Pen Sr* in a runoff. Chirac won big. That didn't mean there was huge popular support for Chirac, merely that the alternative was far, far worse.
*Even I wouldn't want to compare Corbyn with Le Pen – but the general point stands
As a Remainer voting right-leaning moderate, they're the only alternative to what I worry are Brownian motions from May.
But Farron's such a pipsqueak and so far I haven't seen any...seriousness...from them. Perhaps if they were honest about why they were trounced at the last election, and what their game plan is supposed to be today.
The Lib Dems are currently a minor party, therefore the fact that they poll like one (in terms of the nationwide average, at any rate) does not come as any great surprise.
If the name sounds familiar he was on the original run of late night poker & well known in the cards rooms around the country.
80% is closer to Ed Miliband figures.
More seriously, you do see that losing 20% of member support but gaining huge numbers of voters is a plus with an enfeebled opposition, don't you?
It means we win a bigger majority next time....
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2908/Satisfaction-with-leaders-amongst-party-supporters.aspx
In his early days he was in the mid 50s, and after three months he was at 55. When he won the first elections for the Blues in 18 years he got to 92.
Edit: and Miliband never even got close to 80% support!
That Brexit needs a gender in German, French et al, is an argument for Brexit!
But the truly alarming thing, she's doing worse than Gordon Brown at the equivalent stage.
The remainers thought they could keep us in a union with countries that look for the state to tell them what words to use....
The idea that there is a large poll of Continuity Remain voters out there to be mopped up by the most overtly Europhile party is almost certainly a myth.
They are the ones that believed in the £350m a week for the NHS stuff, they are largely in that group of 58% of Leavers that expect to be better off after Brexit. If I am correct then they will be the first to turn against Brexit if and when the going gets tough.
The much heralded UKIP breakthrough to win heartland Labour seats looks more of a pipe dream than ever right now.
(Europe taking the biscuit seems to be what government Brexit strategy is being built round.)
The sacred electorate seems to think it's very much about the money.
But look at the alternative. A friend of Hamas, a unilateralist, a bloody Communist.
It's not a good situation.
The economy certainly is.
Immigration also, but in my view is a bit of a folk devil, and a period of being seen to be "back in control", regardless of immigration volume, would see this issue reduce in importance.
Relatedly, it's why we really don't need pictures of thirty-something refugees on the front pages.
It does suggest that the government are entirely sanguine about trashing the pound which will also give the economy a boost over time if it persists.
But we reached the end of this piece of string a long time ago and the effects are now undoubtedly negative.
There are no more LD voters to get - whisper it, but they don't have many seats left to take....
To be honest I think you're getting a bit too keen on comparing May to Brown....
It is not impossible that Ukip has developed a come-what-may, loyalist core vote just like the more established parties - but even if this is not the case, I still maintain that it's too early to be writing them off. The evidence doesn't yet support this.
The short-term implications of Leave were clear.
I give up. Even if you don't care or despise both candidates, this is incredible stuff being dumped by the skipload. It'd fill several years of Sunday papers here - and a news event I never thought I'd witness.
Ho hum.
"Push it down HARD, like a man. But bring it up softly...like a beautiful woman."
Works better if you imagine a thick Balkan accent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGPAmXqvHU0
BBC now blurring the faces of the so-called children...
Home Office minister Liam Byrne said the measure was "essential" to check that unaccompanied youngsters who arrive in Britain are under the age of 18.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-437629/Young-illegal-immigrants-face-teeth-x-ray-test-real-age.html
Sadly, it looks as though the US is still the only country/group that has been able to successfully land and communicate from Mars.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37707776
The government really should have stood firm on this and stuck to the policy of taking those from camps in Turkey.
Instead they basically took a list from a charity and went ok in you come.
Still, the ESA had huge success with the comet, and this sort of thing isn't easy.
Anyway, with that profound comment, I must be off.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-37687916
The message of the system is sending out is clear, lie through your teeth and you will be rewarded...It should be that those in most need, that play by the rules, are the ones that are prioritized.
(I've neither googled nor asked my Russian - speaking wife...)
Theresa May is closer to the centre of political gravity than Tim Farron is to begin with, and the only challenge to her right comes from the troubled Ukip. If she can succeed in winning back perhaps up to half of the Ukip vote, and persuade what is left of that party to turn itself into a social conservative/big state/protectionist movement explicitly targeting the Labour WWC vote (a little like Marine le Pen's lot in France,) then the Tories can realistically aim for a 45%+ vote share in the next GE.
In the longer term, it is entirely possible that the new main Opposition party could be formed by a split in the Conservatives, after Labour has moved even further leftwards and been marginalised over several electoral cycles.
Con 51%
Lab 29%
LD 8%
UKIP 7%
Green 5%
Why would anyone trust Corbyn at a time of impending crisis?
Only 8% are dissatisfied.
He sharply criticised Britain’s preparation for Brexit as “abysmal” and warned that the British population was being guided through an enormous crisis “by inexperienced politicians whose compasses are set not by the interests of the British people but by feelings of emotion and English nationalism”.
He also said Ireland was “grossly unprepared” for Britain’s departure and he criticised the budget which was “completely inadequate in seeking to deal with the threat posed to this country by Brexit”.
Highlighting the vote in Northern Ireland to remain, he said the Government needed to “carefully nourish” the recognition by unionists for the first time that their interests are best served, not by being part of the UK, but by being part of a federal European system.
Are the Irish Government going to get Mr Adams and his friends to undecommission the weapons put out of use if we ignore them?
If they are not careful they will end up with a UK version of Mr Trumps Wall snaking across Ulster. That will do wonders for the Republics economy.