Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
On the negative side, it would mean we'd have to implement EU tariffs, so no separate trade agreements with other countries. But, realistically, is that an issue?
It was only a small subset of Leavers who understood that "Project Fear", the more sensible parts of it, anyway, were likely to transpire, more or less.
"the more sensible parts"
That's an interesting line to take
A lot of leavers thought the Project Fear was overblown and that while there would be a short term economic impact, it would not be anything like as bad as suggested, and would on balance be worth it for the long term upside. This forum is full of this sort of view from Leavers prior to the referendum.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
I think Farron is working on the theory of one by-election gaining catapulting the LibDems into the (low) teens.
I think May is (wrongly) scared of that. A split left benefits the conservatives.
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Look away TSE - "the effect of Theresa May's conference speech"
Sebastian Payne ✔ @SebastianEPayne Tories are 18pts (*18*) ahead of Labour in October's @IpsosMORI poll. Ukip down to 6pts - the effect of Theresa May's conference speech?
What a shocker, May more in tune with the country than her critics.
Her satisfaction ratings are actually down 11% from last month
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
Well, it wouldn't require freedom of movement or the ECJ interfering in our affairs, or CAP, of CFP, or the EAW (unless we signed up separately), and it would mean much-reduced contributions to the EU budget. The big economic advantage would be zero paperwork, hassle and tariffs on trading manufactured goods, so excellent for our car industry for example.
On the negative side, it would mean we'd have to implement EU tariffs, so no separate trade agreements with other countries. But, realistically, is that an issue?
Well people say it is. Theresa has semi-arbitrarily decided (because there have been polls) that immigration is a red line. Much of the rhetoric of many of the leavers, meanwhile, has been on freeing ourselves from the shackles of EU trade deals and the ability to strike out on our own and negotiate our own trade deal with Tonga and New Zealand.
There will be circles to square all over but letting the EU decide our trade arrangements with 3rd countries might be a tricky one.
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
No. Loony surge.
The loonies too are split. A big bust up with both sides accusing the other of being sensible.
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
And their alternative is?
Customs Union is the absolute worst option. We get most of the pain of leaving, but are unable to sign any meaningful trade deals with anyone else. If that is the plan what is the exit from that to the next stage since it wont be Global Britain, it will be the EU Slightly Annoying Neighbour Britain.
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.
The ICM Poll from October 1990 had the Conservatives on 36% and the LDs on 9% (Labour on 49%). Now these polls are obviously from a different time and probably of little significance but the fact remains Eastbourne saw a 16,000 Conservative majority wiped out albeit under very different circumstances.
The point is only that national opinion polls don't tell the whole story.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Oct 1990 Eastbourne by election 18th October. 3 polls averaging 33 Cons and 12 Lib Dems.
IMHO LDs really need to be in double figures to have a launch pad and Cons into the 30s to have a chance of attack (and UKIP very low) which leaves Labour vote to be squeezed by LDs.
Mr. Topping, You may be correct but I don't recall it. In the spoken usage I remember it being pronounced as, "Asap". However, in my regiment at least if someone wanted something done on the rush, now, they tended to use the word, "Jildi" (from the Hindi, like so much military slang). NCO's would for example conclude an order with the expression "Jildi, jildi!", or use the same if someone wasn't doing something fast enough for their liking.
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
Well, it wouldn't require freedom of movement or the ECJ interfering in our affairs, or CAP, of CFP, or the EAW (unless we signed up separately), and it would mean much-reduced contributions to the EU budget. The big economic advantage would be zero paperwork, hassle and tariffs on trading manufactured goods, so excellent for our car industry for example.
On the negative side, it would mean we'd have to implement EU tariffs, so no separate trade agreements with other countries. But, realistically, is that an issue?
Well people say it is. Theresa has semi-arbitrarily decided (because there have been polls) that immigration is a red line. Much of the rhetoric of many of the leavers, meanwhile, has been on freeing ourselves from the shackles of EU trade deals and the ability to strike out on our own and negotiate our own trade deal with Tonga and New Zealand.
There will be circles to square all over but letting the EU decide our trade arrangements with 3rd countries might be a tricky one.
semi-arbitrarily? Wasn't immigration control one of the big themes of the referendum?
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
And their alternative is?
Customs Union is the absolute worst option. We get most of the pain of leaving, but are unable to sign any meaningful trade deals with anyone else. If that is the plan what is the exit from that to the next stage since it wont be Global Britain, it will be the EU Slightly Annoying Neighbour Britain.
But I meant - what alternative do the leavers have (as voters) if the government collectively goes down such a path?
@rcs1000@TCPoliticalBetting That was my instinct too. At the general election those three parties tallied a combined 84.2% of the vote. The SPIN buy prices on the vote share market totals 84. If the vote is going to coalesce further round those three, that implies there is good value available there on the buy side with one or more parties.
Personally, to me the Labour share looks about right, perhaps a bit high. I've decided to buy both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
It was only a small subset of Leavers who understood that "Project Fear", the more sensible parts of it, anyway, were likely to transpire, more or less.
"the more sensible parts"
That's an interesting line to take
A lot of leavers thought the Project Fear was overblown and that while there would be a short term economic impact, it would not be anything like as bad as suggested, and would on balance be worth it for the long term upside. This forum is full of this sort of view from Leavers prior to the referendum.
Yes. PB Leavers have always better understood the economics of the most likely scenarios under Brexit. "Sensible parts" include that famous diminution in GDP, a lower pound, the risk of decreased investment, etc. All a p**** worth p***** I get that.
Of course PB Leavers will also understand more than others the time value of money and that "short term economic impacts" have a disproportionately important effect on NPVs.
Who will be more depressed at those figures ? Labourites or moaning faced wet blue remainers ?
Lolz.
I predicted that May's speech and positioning (much of which I didn't like) would be hugely popular. She's managed to get Labour and Kippers into her big tent in one go. In pure politics, that's very impressive.
Her big tent full of sweet air is doing fine for now, despite lack of tent pegs. Her test will come when people see the reality of Brexit, as distinct from a quilt of sewn-together half baked dreams and Bullshit a la SeanT.
Oh I agree. Which is why I don't want the Hard Brexit she "seems" to be offering. I said there were parts of her speech I disliked. Nanny state, interventionism, meh. Heathrow dithering (or media mishandling of the announcement), pff.
My point is that she has, very skilfully, managed to seize the centre ground AND regather kippers, and the WWC. That's canny politics, however you cut your cucumber.
Especially without actually doing anything, or even proposing to do anything in particular.
Sounds like a good opportunity then. Get it unbanned (like it recently was in the USA) and our exports can rise from zero to more.
If we export our beef to Japan what do we eat instead - Cake ?
Wow, what do you say to this? I seriously hope you're joking and don't think if we export food that means we will run out and starve?
Who knows with the collapsing pound . We cannot all afford to eat Swiss and Italian cheese or pineapples from Kenya .
The collapsing pound is designed to boost exports and just because we export beef does not mean we run out of beef domestically. There will still be plenty of Aberdeen Angus etc available in the UK even if some is exported, our farmers can increase production if there's more demand.
"designed" lol
Why else did the Carney cut interest rates thus sending sterling down? If he'd wanted to keep sterling up he could have held interest rates steady or increased them.
You think a 1/4 percent drop was what led to the collapse of sterling?! Seriously!!??
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.
The ICM Poll from October 1990 had the Conservatives on 36% and the LDs on 9% (Labour on 49%). Now these polls are obviously from a different time and probably of little significance but the fact remains Eastbourne saw a 16,000 Conservative majority wiped out albeit under very different circumstances.
The point is only that national opinion polls don't tell the whole story.
Correct. Remember, the Westminster VI polls are weighted for general election turnouts. Turnout in Witney could be very low.
'Her big tent full of sweet air is doing fine for now, despite lack of tent pegs. Her test will come when people see the reality of Brexit, as distinct from a quilt of sewn-together half baked dreams and Bullshit a la SeanT.'
But she's up against Corbyn & the students union leader.
Sounds like a good opportunity then. Get it unbanned (like it recently was in the USA) and our exports can rise from zero to more.
If we export our beef to Japan what do we eat instead - Cake ?
Wow, what do you say to this? I seriously hope you're joking and don't think if we export food that means we will run out and starve?
Who knows with the collapsing pound . We cannot all afford to eat Swiss and Italian cheese or pineapples from Kenya .
The collapsing pound is designed to boost exports and just because we export beef does not mean we run out of beef domestically. There will still be plenty of Aberdeen Angus etc available in the UK even if some is exported, our farmers can increase production if there's more demand.
"designed" lol
Why else did the Carney cut interest rates thus sending sterling down? If he'd wanted to keep sterling up he could have held interest rates steady or increased them.
You think a 1/4 percent drop was what led to the collapse of sterling?! Seriously!!??
Sterling plunged after the vote and plunged again after the Tory Conf hard Brexit stuff. I don't recall the rate cut making much of a difference?
Mr. Topping, You may be correct but I don't recall it. In the spoken usage I remember it being pronounced as, "Asap". However, in my regiment at least if someone wanted something done on the rush, now, they tended to use the word, "Jildi" (from the Hindi, like so much military slang). NCO's would for example conclude an order with the expression "Jildi, jildi!", or use the same if someone wasn't doing something fast enough for their liking.
Interesting. I'm sure Windsor Davies would have approved.
Oct 1990 Eastbourne by election 18th October. 3 polls averaging 33 Cons and 12 Lib Dems.
IMHO LDs really need to be in double figures to have a launch pad and Cons into the 30s to have a chance of attack (and UKIP very low) which leaves Labour vote to be squeezed by LDs.
Averaging polls from 1990?
That's pretty desperate stuff even from you.
"Poll averaging - the last refuge of the scoundrel"
I agree, which means this poll is quite close to that fairytale election result I posited a few days back. Something like Tories: 48 Labour: 22 Lib Dems: 8 Ukip: 6 Greens: 4
Looks where we are. Labour are still being over stated by most pollsters. Far too many 18-24 in the figures assumed to actually vote. The problem is that they infect other non GE polls and distort the picture on what is actually influencing people that vote.
Well people say it is. Theresa has semi-arbitrarily decided (because there have been polls) that immigration is a red line. Much of the rhetoric of many of the leavers, meanwhile, has been on freeing ourselves from the shackles of EU trade deals and the ability to strike out on our own and negotiate our own trade deal with Tonga and New Zealand.
There will be circles to square all over but letting the EU decide our trade arrangements with 3rd countries might be a tricky one.
My personal view is that the championing of 'free trade deals' was a post-hoc rationalisation by the Leavers. They recognised that the economic arguments were massively on the Remain side, and so convinced themselves that there was some vaguely-defined pot of trade-gold which we could magically access by free trade deals. The fact that there is no evidence of this, and a lot of evidence to the contrary (see, for example the point @rcs1000 has made here that there are very, very few significant trade deals between the G20 states other than the big blocs) was dismissed with hand-waving*.
Now that the referendum has been won by the Leavers, they don't actually need that pretence any more, and of course the government has to deal with reality. The reality is that business is very worried; in particular, our car industry is simply not viable without tariff-free and largely hassle-free trade in its cross-border intra-EU supply chain.
I don't know how this will play out, but I wouldn't rule out the Customs Union idea.
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.
But children who live in areas where education is allocated selectively don't have the chance to attend non-selective schools. (That's even before we get onto whether or not attending a grammar school is actually an advantage for those selected, whether it is a good way to allocate publically provided resources and whether we even have the tests that can select appropriately.)
Sorry are you saying that children in areas with Grammar schools don't have the chance to go to the local comprehensive? Is that so?
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
Well, it wouldn't require freedom of movement or the ECJ interfering in our affairs, or CAP, of CFP, or the EAW (unless we signed up separately), and it would mean much-reduced contributions to the EU budget. The big economic advantage would be zero paperwork, hassle and tariffs on trading manufactured goods, so excellent for our car industry for example.
On the negative side, it would mean we'd have to implement EU tariffs, so no separate trade agreements with other countries. But, realistically, is that an issue?
Well people say it is. Theresa has semi-arbitrarily decided (because there have been polls) that immigration is a red line. Much of the rhetoric of many of the leavers, meanwhile, has been on freeing ourselves from the shackles of EU trade deals and the ability to strike out on our own and negotiate our own trade deal with Tonga and New Zealand.
There will be circles to square all over but letting the EU decide our trade arrangements with 3rd countries might be a tricky one.
semi-arbitrarily? Wasn't immigration control one of the big themes of the referendum?
Well, I say that because every Vote Leaver who discussed immigration couldn't say quickly enough how hugely in favour of immigration they were and we have had on here a lot of the "it wasn't about immigration" stuff. Polls as you say suggest otherwise but Leavers seem to get quite touchy about it. "It's not immigration it's who controls it"...etc - ie, it's about immigration.
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
And their alternative is?
Customs Union is the absolute worst option. We get most of the pain of leaving, but are unable to sign any meaningful trade deals with anyone else. If that is the plan what is the exit from that to the next stage since it wont be Global Britain, it will be the EU Slightly Annoying Neighbour Britain.
But I meant - what alternative do the leavers have (as voters) if the government collectively goes down such a path?
As a voter if the deal smells bad enough they will probably stay on the sofa. If the government is incautious to support a really crap sounding deal before the corpse of UKIP is properly buried, a resurrection isn't out of the question either.
The problem for the government will be how it handles FoM, its what really gets the voters goats and will be the one that will get UKIP off the mortuary slab if the government looks like it is going wobbly on it.
My point though was that EEA is a respectable step on the journey, you can see how we could pause there for a decade, negotiate our own FTA, make friends, develop new non-EU markets etc, before maybe choosing to loosen the ties further. Staying in the Customs Union doesn't do that for us, it feels more like a destination not a waypoint, and that is probably going to go down poorly in the country.
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
No. Loony surge.
The loonies too are split. A big bust up with both sides accusing the other of being sensible.
anyone seen john loonie? doesn't seem to have been on
Oct 1990 Eastbourne by election 18th October. 3 polls averaging 33 Cons and 12 Lib Dems.
IMHO LDs really need to be in double figures to have a launch pad and Cons into the 30s to have a chance of attack (and UKIP very low) which leaves Labour vote to be squeezed by LDs.
Averaging polls from 1990? That's pretty desperate stuff even from you. "Poll averaging - the last refuge of the scoundrel"
Just put it there rather than quote any one of the 3. MORI/Times , ICM/Guardian and Gallup/Telegraph. LD 14,9,14
I think the Libs might sneak into double figures and get a dozen seats, but otherwise I'd agree with that.
Add in boundary reforms, a couple more years of Corbyn and a modest Lib Dem recovery and it's possible after a 2018 or 19 election the SNP could be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.
To this observer, the pro-Trump, or should that be anti-HRC elements are making the same mistake the REMAIN side made in the EU Referendum. While I have heard loads of vitriol explaining why I shouldn't vote for HRC, I've heard almost nothing saying why I should vote FOR Trump.
As with REMAIN, Trump plays to the fear and to the anger but offers nothing positive or hopeful. There's something about cutting taxes and making America "great again" (whatever that means) but the personalisation of the message (I'm Donald, I know what I'm doing) is almost as bad as Cameron's which was essentially "Trust me, I'm Dave".
Good point. Clinton vs. Trump is not really Remain vs. Leave, as some here have suggested, but Remain vs. Remain.
Mr. Indigo, I agree entirely. Leaving the customs union is the most obvious black and white issue there is regarding the EU.
Mr. T, I think the only time since the War a party got a majority of the vote was in the early fifties. The Conservatives got just over 50% of the vote [Labour won the election].
The euro is quite weak in the crosses. Little has been made on here of capital flight from Italy in recent days. It would simply be too, too delicious, if there was a euro crisis and the pound became a safe haven because we are leaving. I couldn't be that lucky, could I?
I read that the flows are into Germany. Not quite reached the crisis point of a few years ago but could?
Well people say it is. Theresa has semi-arbitrarily decided (because there have been polls) that immigration is a red line. Much of the rhetoric of many of the leavers, meanwhile, has been on freeing ourselves from the shackles of EU trade deals and the ability to strike out on our own and negotiate our own trade deal with Tonga and New Zealand.
There will be circles to square all over but letting the EU decide our trade arrangements with 3rd countries might be a tricky one.
My personal view is that the championing of 'free trade deals' was a post-hoc rationalisation by the Leavers. They recognised that the economic arguments were massively on the Remain side, and so convinced themselves that there was some vaguely-defined pot of trade-gold which we could magically access by free trade deals. The fact that there is no evidence of this, and a lot of evidence to the contrary (see, for example the point @rcs1000 has made here that there are very, very few significant trade deals between the G20 states other than the big blocs) was dismissed with hand-waving*.
Now that the referendum has been won by the Leavers, they don't actually need that pretence any more, and of course the government has to deal with reality. The reality is that business is very worried; in particular, our car industry is simply not viable without tariff-free and largely hassle-free trade in its cross-border intra-EU supply chain.
I don't know how this will play out, but I wouldn't rule out the Customs Union idea.
*see upthread for definition!
Yes, agree. My point about May "semi-arbitrarily" fixing on immigration is that it is obvious that the govt will choose the path of media-portrayable least resistance. It is equally obvious that other solutions or priorities will be equally arbitrary. It looks not a little as though they are starting from a blank sheet of paper and wondering what they can get away with.
Mr. Indigo, I agree entirely. Leaving the customs union is the most obvious black and white issue there is regarding the EU.
Mr. T, I think the only time since the War a party got a majority of the vote was in the early fifties. The Conservatives got just over 50% of the vote [Labour won the election].
They got close, 49.7% in 55, but never 50%+ since the war. Also it would be very strange for a party to get 50%+ and not have the most seats.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.
The polls suggest that the LibDems may improve on their 6.8% in Witney to maybe 8 or 9%. From what has been said on here I would guess that the polls are wrong (it has been known). The consensus here seems to be that the LibDems will come second, leapfrogging UKIP and Labour and getting maybe 20%. That would seem good progress and would be in line with what has happened in their 20 or so Council gains. If you mean that they don't have a hope of winning - well that seems to be stating the obvious, to go from 6.8% and fourth place to beat the incumbent party's 60% would seem impossible. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that anything like that has happened in the past, it would be a political earthquake.
Re: Cleaning up after Osborne. We have had the scrapping of Osborne's pension change, will we next have some rolling back of some of the BTL changes? I hear that the rate of new BTL's has rapidly fallen in recent weeks. One mortgage advisor says it is down 2/3 year on year.
Just put it there rather than quote any one of the 3. MORI/Times , ICM/Guardian and Gallup/Telegraph. LD 14,9,14
I think OGH would tell us these old polls are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard given the methodologies used at the time.
I don't dispute the task facing the LDs in Witney - my contention is trying to use national polls to work out by-election results is fraught with peril.
Re: Cleaning up after Osborne. We have had the scrapping of Osborne's pension change, will we next have some rolling back of some of the BTL changes? I hear that the rate of new BTL's has rapidly fallen in recent weeks. One mortgage advisor says it is down 2/3 year on year.
Only one part of the change. That of creating a secondary market for annuities. The major change (taking a lump sum) is unaltered as far as I can see.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.
The polls suggest that the LibDems may improve on their 6.8% in Witney to maybe 8 or 9%. From what has been said on here I would guess that the polls are wrong (it has been known). The consensus here seems to be that the LibDems will come second, leapfrogging UKIP and Labour and getting maybe 20%. That would seem good progress and would be in line with what has happened in their 20 or so Council gains. If you mean that they don't have a hope of winning - well that seems to be stating the obvious, to go from 6.8% and fourth place to beat the incumbent party's 60% would seem impossible. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that anything like that has happened in the past, it would be a political earthquake.
Applying a national poll to a by election seems to be a bit of a silly idea. It would indeed be a monumental event if the Lib Dems did win the by election!
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
Quick reaction, yes a bigger share of the vote for the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems. I expect UKIP vote to slip back, late with candidate and little sign on the ground.
... and in a 'death spiral' according to Steven Woolfe
Mr. D, too busy(ish) to check, but it seems the longer the previous PM or other Party was in power, the higher the approval rating. Not a perfect correlation but there does seem to be something of a pattern.
To this observer, the pro-Trump, or should that be anti-HRC elements are making the same mistake the REMAIN side made in the EU Referendum. While I have heard loads of vitriol explaining why I shouldn't vote for HRC, I've heard almost nothing saying why I should vote FOR Trump.
As with REMAIN, Trump plays to the fear and to the anger but offers nothing positive or hopeful. There's something about cutting taxes and making America "great again" (whatever that means) but the personalisation of the message (I'm Donald, I know what I'm doing) is almost as bad as Cameron's which was essentially "Trust me, I'm Dave".
Good point. Clinton vs. Trump is not really Remain vs. Leave, as some here have suggested, but Remain vs. Remain.
Quite. I can't recall hearing anything positive from either side. Trump's main pitch is largely that he isn't HRC, but cloaked with some MAGA populism. HRC's main pitch is that she isn't Donald Trump, and that incase we missed it, she has ovaries.
Trump hasn't given us any clues as to real (non-fanciful) policies that will actually MAGA, and HRC hasn't given us any policies that will do anything for the disaffected and dispossessed.
For me its HRC this time, although will rather less of a landslide than her cheerleaders are suggesting, but on the merit of not being Trump, which means in 2020 when her opponent isn't Trump either, and the same mass of people are even more pissed off with corporatist managed decline managerialism, she's toast.
Mr. Topping, You may be correct but I don't recall it. In the spoken usage I remember it being pronounced as, "Asap". However, in my regiment at least if someone wanted something done on the rush, now, they tended to use the word, "Jildi" (from the Hindi, like so much military slang). NCO's would for example conclude an order with the expression "Jildi, jildi!", or use the same if someone wasn't doing something fast enough for their liking.
Interesting. I'm sure Windsor Davies would have approved.
As I said much of military slang in my day was derived from Hindi or Urdu and most of the rest from Arabic. From what I can tell it still is. The script writers of "It ain't half hot , Mum" were just reflecting what was most certainly the case in India in WW2.
Of course, Tommy Atkins was capable of the most appalling butchery of those languages and usually managed to mispronounce the words he adopted or to change their meaning. See, "Dhobi" as an example.
I think the Libs might sneak into double figures and get a dozen seats, but otherwise I'd agree with that.
Add in boundary reforms, a couple more years of Corbyn and a modest Lib Dem recovery and it's possible after a 2018 or 19 election the SNP could be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.
From memory that happened once in Canada with BQ.
The SNP should expect a few losses at the next GE. Far too many seats to defend and they have 3 opponents who now know which seats their best chances in. Also the SNP in Govt will have a long record to defend. A form of unionist unofficial target list could spring 6 - 10* seats to the unionist 3 parties?
Mr. Indigo, I agree entirely. Leaving the customs union is the most obvious black and white issue there is regarding the EU.
Mr. T, I think the only time since the War a party got a majority of the vote was in the early fifties. The Conservatives got just over 50% of the vote [Labour won the election].
Mr Dancer - no party post war has exceeded 50%, closest was Eden's Conservatives in 55 with 49.7%. Four years earlier Churchill won a majority with 48% against Attlee's 48.8%.
has ol marco lost some emails d'ye reckon? or found a principle?
People on this website pay as much attention to politico as they do to breitbart - somewhere between not very much and none at all. So don't waste your time trolling.
in 2020 when her opponent isn't Trump either, and the same mass of people are even more pissed off with corporatist managed decline managerialism, she's toast.
I hope you are correct and Hilary prevails.
in that case 2020 really does depend on the republicans putting up someone sane. ted cruz isn't going to work
Ah, seems I was mistaken on the electoral high water mark. I stand corrected. Sorry, everyone.
Still, at least it was only on the frivolous matter of current events rather than something important, like the relative merits of Hannibal and Caesar in generalship.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.
The polls suggest that the LibDems may improve on their 6.8% in Witney to maybe 8 or 9%. From what has been said on here I would guess that the polls are wrong (it has been known). The consensus here seems to be that the LibDems will come second, leapfrogging UKIP and Labour and getting maybe 20%. That would seem good progress and would be in line with what has happened in their 20 or so Council gains. If you mean that they don't have a hope of winning - well that seems to be stating the obvious, to go from 6.8% and fourth place to beat the incumbent party's 60% would seem impossible. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that anything like that has happened in the past, it would be a political earthquake.
But some on here have been suggesting exactly that: a Lib Dem win. Pah.
I agree with you, they will significantly improve their vote, but not by enough to change perceptions of them, and soon it will be all forgotten.
What is your prediction? Here's what rcs1000 predicted.
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure 5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it 8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress 12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election 18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again. 24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
I think that the LibDems could get 25%, with UKIP losing their deposit and the Tories losing 5% to 55%.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
Indeed and past leaders have needed the fillip of a by election win as a kind of "badge of honour". Eastbourne was Paddy's moment and marked the end of the disastrous post-1987 election period. After that, the Party was to an extent back in the game and had a very real prospect of holding the balance of power (as it seemed) at the 1992 GE.
For Charles Kennedy, Romsey was his big moment. The Party threw a lot of time and effort into the seat and suffered Council losses the same time but winning the seat from the Conservatives made the news and illustrated how far back Hague still was and paved the way for the 2001 election disaster.
Menzies Campbell had his moment with Jo Swinson's win in East Dumbarton in early 2006 but regrettably it didn't turn out well for him. Nick Clegg never had a by election win on that scale and now Tim Farron needs to make his mark.
I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
in 2020 when her opponent isn't Trump either, and the same mass of people are even more pissed off with corporatist managed decline managerialism, she's toast.
I hope you are correct and Hilary prevails.
in that case 2020 really does depend on the republicans putting up someone sane. ted cruz isn't going to work
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
They are also tallying 7% because a uncompromising pro-EU wishy washy wet party will attract that level of support in the populace.
Sounds like a good opportunity then. Get it unbanned (like it recently was in the USA) and our exports can rise from zero to more.
If we export our beef to Japan what do we eat instead - Cake ?
Wow, what do you say to this? I seriously hope you're joking and don't think if we export food that means we will run out and starve?
Who knows with the collapsing pound . We cannot all afford to eat Swiss and Italian cheese or pineapples from Kenya .
The collapsing pound is designed to boost exports and just because we export beef does not mean we run out of beef domestically. There will still be plenty of Aberdeen Angus etc available in the UK even if some is exported, our farmers can increase production if there's more demand.
"designed" lol
Why else did the Carney cut interest rates thus sending sterling down? If he'd wanted to keep sterling up he could have held interest rates steady or increased them.
You think a 1/4 percent drop was what led to the collapse of sterling?! Seriously!!??
In no small part yes. It was both the drop and the accompanying message that the Bank was going to keep rates low and would not raise them even if inflation rises. The market had baked in pre-referendum an expectation that it was a case of when not if the Bank started to raise interest rates.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
has ol marco lost some emails d'ye reckon? or found a principle?
People on this website pay as much attention to politico as they do to breitbart - somewhere between not very much and none at all. So don't waste your time trolling.
oh, ok, I don't know about politico. I came across it on twitter and it was one of the top google hits. It seemed legit, though prepared to be corrected.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
My personal view is that the championing of 'free trade deals' was a post-hoc rationalisation by the Leavers. They recognised that the economic arguments were massively on the Remain side, and so convinced themselves that there was some vaguely-defined pot of trade-gold which we could magically access by free trade deals. The fact that there is no evidence of this, and a lot of evidence to the contrary (see, for example the point @rcs1000 has made here that there are very, very few significant trade deals between the G20 states other than the big blocs) was dismissed with hand-waving*.
Now that the referendum has been won by the Leavers, they don't actually need that pretence any more, and of course the government has to deal with reality. The reality is that business is very worried; in particular, our car industry is simply not viable without tariff-free and largely hassle-free trade in its cross-border intra-EU supply chain.
I don't know how this will play out, but I wouldn't rule out the Customs Union idea.
*see upthread for definition!
Repost this. Staying in the Customs Union should be a no-brainer if we leave the Single Market
ADVANTAGES of REMAINING in CUSTOM UNION 1. Tariff -free transit of industrial goods with the EU/EEA (but not services or agriculture) 2. Ready-made set of free trade agreements with third party countries already negotiated by the EU. DIY will result in a long gap while the new deals are negotiated. The EU has more market clout than the UK to get better deals 3. Much lower burden and cost of red tape. Exporters with supply chains don’t require origination certification for the components nor for finished products 4. UK negotiators can concentrate on the key EU and WTO arrangements. They are spread too thin to take on third country negotiations as well. 5. Early commitment to a Customs Union would remove uncertainty for investment in UK industrials (think Nissan in Sunderland). 6. BONUS advantage! Possible redundancy for Liam Fox. The UK would still be able to negotiate Free Trade Agreements with third countries, but is presumably constrained to the import tariffs already set by the EU.
ADVANTAGES of LEAVING the CUSTOM UNION 1. The UK can unilaterally reduce its import duties allowing them to compete better with EU countries on price for finished products to third countries. A partial compensation for the barriers to EU trade. 2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so may have a higher chance of success than the EU for deals still to be signed.
@DanielJHannan: I'm happy to compromise on keeping aspects of the single market (eg non-discrimination). But staying in the Common External Tariff is crazy.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
has ol marco lost some emails d'ye reckon? or found a principle?
People on this website pay as much attention to politico as they do to breitbart - somewhere between not very much and none at all. So don't waste your time trolling.
oh, ok, I don't know about politico. I came across it on twitter and it was one of the top google hits. It seemed legit, though prepared to be corrected.
On the customs union I think it is possible the U.K. stays in it for Goods (a la Turkey) whilst retaining some latitude to negotiate on services and non-tariff barriers outwith it, but it would mean obeying all EU rules on product standards without having a say.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
Mr. 43, you've missed off that the EU deals are there to suit the EU as a whole. A deal (even with us in) that helps Italy, Slovenia and France but harms us would be seen as a positive.
The advantage of our own deals is that they're done in the British national interest, not the EU interest.
With us out (if we leave...), the EU will be even less inclined to care if the deals they negotiate on our behalf harm us and help the EU.
On the customs union I think it is possible the U.K. stays in it for Goods (a la Turkey) whilst retaining some latitude to negotiate on services and non-tariff barriers outwith it, but it would mean obeying all EU rules on product standards without having a say.
Won't it also mean the UK has to enforce EU tariffs.
Comments
That's an interesting line to take
A lot of leavers thought the Project Fear was overblown and that while there would be a short term economic impact, it would not be anything like as bad as suggested, and would on balance be worth it for the long term upside. This forum is full of this sort of view from Leavers prior to the referendum.
I think May is (wrongly) scared of that. A split left benefits the conservatives.
Or not. But we shouldn't assume the lead will grow. Labour does have a relatively high floor.
There will be circles to square all over but letting the EU decide our trade arrangements with 3rd countries might be a tricky one.
The point is only that national opinion polls don't tell the whole story.
IMHO LDs really need to be in double figures to have a launch pad and Cons into the 30s to have a chance of attack (and UKIP very low) which leaves Labour vote to be squeezed by LDs.
Jeremy Corbyn is the key member of her inner circle. Without him, she could soon face trouble.
The new numbers on people's financial concerns over Brexit may be a leading indicator.
Personally, to me the Labour share looks about right, perhaps a bit high. I've decided to buy both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives.
Of course PB Leavers will also understand more than others the time value of money and that "short term economic impacts" have a disproportionately important effect on NPVs.
It would simply be too, too delicious, if there was a euro crisis and the pound became a safe haven because we are leaving.
I couldn't be that lucky, could I?
'Her big tent full of sweet air is doing fine for now, despite lack of tent pegs. Her test will come when people see the reality of Brexit, as distinct from a quilt of sewn-together half baked dreams and Bullshit a la SeanT.'
But she's up against Corbyn & the students union leader.
And in this analogy, Labour is a white fluffy cashmere blanket - he's not going anywhere.
Does the @RobD rule apply to me as well?
That's pretty desperate stuff even from you.
"Poll averaging - the last refuge of the scoundrel"
Now that the referendum has been won by the Leavers, they don't actually need that pretence any more, and of course the government has to deal with reality. The reality is that business is very worried; in particular, our car industry is simply not viable without tariff-free and largely hassle-free trade in its cross-border intra-EU supply chain.
I don't know how this will play out, but I wouldn't rule out the Customs Union idea.
*see upthread for definition!
Our issue in a Euro crisis would be that our largest single trading partner had just blown up and our banks were neck deep in exposure.
The problem for the government will be how it handles FoM, its what really gets the voters goats and will be the one that will get UKIP off the mortuary slab if the government looks like it is going wobbly on it.
My point though was that EEA is a respectable step on the journey, you can see how we could pause there for a decade, negotiate our own FTA, make friends, develop new non-EU markets etc, before maybe choosing to loosen the ties further. Staying in the Customs Union doesn't do that for us, it feels more like a destination not a waypoint, and that is probably going to go down poorly in the country.
Gallup/Telegraph. LD 14,9,14
From memory that happened once in Canada with BQ.
Mr. T, I think the only time since the War a party got a majority of the vote was in the early fifties. The Conservatives got just over 50% of the vote [Labour won the election].
The consensus here seems to be that the LibDems will come second, leapfrogging UKIP and Labour and getting maybe 20%. That would seem good progress and would be in line with what has happened in their 20 or so Council gains.
If you mean that they don't have a hope of winning - well that seems to be stating the obvious, to go from 6.8% and fourth place to beat the incumbent party's 60% would seem impossible. Please correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that anything like that has happened in the past, it would be a political earthquake.
We have had the scrapping of Osborne's pension change, will we next have some rolling back of some of the BTL changes?
I hear that the rate of new BTL's has rapidly fallen in recent weeks. One mortgage advisor says it is down 2/3 year on year.
I don't dispute the task facing the LDs in Witney - my contention is trying to use national polls to work out by-election results is fraught with peril.
Thatcher +2
Major +44(!)
Blair +59(!!)
Brown +18
Cameron + 24
May +16
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/788750406298005504
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
Trump hasn't given us any clues as to real (non-fanciful) policies that will actually MAGA, and HRC hasn't given us any policies that will do anything for the disaffected and dispossessed.
For me its HRC this time, although will rather less of a landslide than her cheerleaders are suggesting, but on the merit of not being Trump, which means in 2020 when her opponent isn't Trump either, and the same mass of people are even more pissed off with corporatist managed decline managerialism, she's toast.
Of course, Tommy Atkins was capable of the most appalling butchery of those languages and usually managed to mispronounce the words he adopted or to change their meaning. See, "Dhobi" as an example.
*depending on boundaries and seat totals
in that case 2020 really does depend on the republicans putting up someone sane. ted cruz isn't going to work
Still, at least it was only on the frivolous matter of current events rather than something important, like the relative merits of Hannibal and Caesar in generalship.
Here's what rcs1000 predicted.
<5% - Utter disaster, Farron must be under considerable pressure
5-8% - Bad result, LDs threw a lot at it
8-12% - OK result, went forward from the General, but not showing much progress
12-18% - This is the par result. This is what they should be achieving to even hope to get 6-10 seats at the General election
18-24% - Good progress, and almost certainly means that they are a solid second place behind the Conservatives. It also indicates the LD by-election machine is beginning to work again.
24+% - This is a genuinely good result for the LDs, and they can go into future by-elections (such as Richmond Park, if Zac resigns) with a degree of confidence
I think that the LibDems could get 25%, with UKIP losing their deposit and the Tories losing 5% to 55%.
For Charles Kennedy, Romsey was his big moment. The Party threw a lot of time and effort into the seat and suffered Council losses the same time but winning the seat from the Conservatives made the news and illustrated how far back Hague still was and paved the way for the 2001 election disaster.
Menzies Campbell had his moment with Jo Swinson's win in East Dumbarton in early 2006 but regrettably it didn't turn out well for him. Nick Clegg never had a by election win on that scale and now Tim Farron needs to make his mark.
I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Paging TSE - this is what it is like to have a party leader with an ear for the British people and the guts to leave the EU...
47%!!!
Con gain Bootle.
Losers on course to lose again is the summary.
No surprise given Apple's hatred of standards.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warrington_by-election,_1981
Eccentric Party
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witney_by-election,_2016
http://www.zdnet.com/article/trump-organization-servers-are-running-horribly-outdated-unpatched-and-insecure-software/?loc=newsletter_small_thumb&ftag=TRE17cfd61&bhid=5789242
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vGwIaL0jOUg
ADVANTAGES of REMAINING in CUSTOM UNION
1. Tariff -free transit of industrial goods with the EU/EEA (but not services or agriculture)
2. Ready-made set of free trade agreements with third party countries already negotiated by the EU. DIY will result in a long gap while the new deals are negotiated. The EU has more market clout than the UK to get better deals
3. Much lower burden and cost of red tape. Exporters with supply chains don’t require origination certification for the components nor for finished products
4. UK negotiators can concentrate on the key EU and WTO arrangements. They are spread too thin to take on third country negotiations as well.
5. Early commitment to a Customs Union would remove uncertainty for investment in UK industrials (think Nissan in Sunderland).
6. BONUS advantage! Possible redundancy for Liam Fox. The UK would still be able to negotiate Free Trade Agreements with third countries, but is presumably constrained to the import tariffs already set by the EU.
ADVANTAGES of LEAVING the CUSTOM UNION
1. The UK can unilaterally reduce its import duties allowing them to compete better with EU countries on price for finished products to third countries. A partial compensation for the barriers to EU trade.
2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so may have a higher chance of success than the EU for deals still to be signed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
other msm sources available
The advantage of our own deals is that they're done in the British national interest, not the EU interest.
With us out (if we leave...), the EU will be even less inclined to care if the deals they negotiate on our behalf harm us and help the EU.
Defeats the ENTIRE point of Brexit for me.