Poor Joff, still chained to his rock, cursed by fate to churn out one "more new woe for Labour" thread after another, whilst his party slowly sinks beneath the waves...
Handwaving - yeah, just don't understand this term in the context it's used by PBers. Is it yet another awful PB/internet phrase like virtual signalling and waycist? What does it mean?!
It just seems to be Trump rampers upset because people won't bite on stupid wikileaks data dumps and say ITS ALL OVER FOR CLINTON
Er, I am pretty sure it wasn't said by a Trump ramper.
Plato uses it to describe anyone who disagrees with her. Very much a Trump ramper!
I saw it used by Indigo based on a search of the last thread. Perhaps it was used earlier on too?
From wiki:
Handwaving is frequently used in low-quality debate, including political campaigning and commentary, issue-based advocacy, advertising and public relations, tabloid journalism, opinion pieces, Internet memes, and informal discussion and writing. If the opponent in a debate or commentator on an argument alleges hand-waving, it suggests the proponent of the argument, position or message has engaged in one or more fallacies of logic, usually informal, and/or glossed over non-trivial details, and is attempting to wave away challenges and deflect questions, as if swatting at flies.
So, dismiss?
More or less, but it has overtones of desperation and frantic attempts to wave away or deflect awkward questions.
The New Hacker's Dictionary (a.k.a. The Jargon File) observes:
If someone starts a sentence with "Clearly..." or "Obviously..." or "It is self-evident that...", it is a good bet he is about to handwave (alternatively, use of these constructions in a sarcastic tone before a paraphrase of someone else's argument suggests that it is a handwave). The theory behind this term is that if you wave your hands at the right moment, the listener may be sufficiently distracted to not notice that what you have said is bogus [i.e., incorrect]. Failing that, if a listener does object, you might try to dismiss the objection with a wave of your hand.[2]
So dismissing objections and well-researched counterpoints as "handwaving" is, in fact, handwaving. Brilliant.
Handwaving - yeah, just don't understand this term in the context it's used by PBers. Is it yet another awful PB/internet phrase like virtual signalling and waycist? What does it mean?!
It just seems to be Trump rampers upset because people won't bite on stupid wikileaks data dumps and say ITS ALL OVER FOR CLINTON
Er, I am pretty sure it wasn't said by a Trump ramper.
Plato uses it to describe anyone who disagrees with her. Very much a Trump ramper!
I saw it used by Indigo based on a search of the last thread. Perhaps it was used earlier on too?
From wiki:
Handwaving is frequently used in low-quality debate, including political campaigning and commentary, issue-based advocacy, advertising and public relations, tabloid journalism, opinion pieces, Internet memes, and informal discussion and writing. If the opponent in a debate or commentator on an argument alleges hand-waving, it suggests the proponent of the argument, position or message has engaged in one or more fallacies of logic, usually informal, and/or glossed over non-trivial details, and is attempting to wave away challenges and deflect questions, as if swatting at flies.
So, dismiss?
More or less, but it has overtones of desperation and frantic attempts to wave away or deflect awkward questions.
Not so much desperate/frantic; more can't be bothered with these pesky details (aka fundamental issues).
Surely it is a good decision. Having a Remainer as head of the Brexit committee would be a bit ridiculous.
By that logic, we cannot have a Remainer as Prime Minister, ooh an excuse to ditch Theresa May, I like your thinking.
If only Dave backed LEAVE after the renegotiation, he would still be our PM AND an MP....
If only Dave backed LEAVE before the renegotiation, he would still be our PM AND an MP and LEAVE would have gained 65%+ .. but Osborne would have been locked on for next PM.
Surely it is a good decision. Having a Remainer as head of the Brexit committee would be a bit ridiculous.
By that logic, we cannot have a Remainer as Prime Minister, ooh an excuse to ditch Theresa May, I like your thinking.
May has recanted her Remain support - vocal as it was during the campaign
For once Corbyn is right here. Hoey is a sensible choice and a genuine expert too.
Politically, it's a silly position because (1) it splits him from the PLP again, unnecessarily, and (2) there's a reasonable chance he'll end up on the losing side, which would be a big win for his MPs against him - as well as defining Benn as one of their principal spokesmen.
That assumes (1) the PLP, Benn and Corbyn were united in the first place and nothing else would come up to divide them (we know both aren't true) and (2) that Benn wasn't already viewed as a principal alternative spokesman.
Whether Corbyn supports Benn or not if he gets elected he'll have a platform. On the other hand if Hoey gets elected then that denies Benn that platform.
Tw@tter showing an Ipsos Mori showing the tories on 47%....
Is this new?
From the tweet ScottP posted:
"Ipsos MORI’s ongoing voting intentions figures show the Conservatives widening a lead over Labour to its highest since before the 2010 election. The Conservatives currently stand at 47%, compared with Labour at 29%, the Liberal Democrats at 7% and UKIP at 6%."
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Whether Corbyn supports Benn or not if he gets elected he'll have a platform. On the other hand if Hoey gets elected then that denies Benn that platform.
Tory leavers and careerists will vote for Hoey, partly in the hope it gives their bill a slightly easier ride (although that might be wishful thinking with an opposition MP and subject expert), but mostly because it will annoy the hell out of an already fractious Labour backbench.
Sounds like a good opportunity then. Get it unbanned (like it recently was in the USA) and our exports can rise from zero to more.
If we export our beef to Japan what do we eat instead - Cake ?
Wow, what do you say to this? I seriously hope you're joking and don't think if we export food that means we will run out and starve?
Who knows with the collapsing pound . We cannot all afford to eat Swiss and Italian cheese or pineapples from Kenya .
The collapsing pound is designed to boost exports and just because we export beef does not mean we run out of beef domestically. There will still be plenty of Aberdeen Angus etc available in the UK even if some is exported, our farmers can increase production if there's more demand.
"designed" lol
Why else did the Carney cut interest rates thus sending sterling down? If he'd wanted to keep sterling up he could have held interest rates steady or increased them.
One example "In the scenario of total and sudden contraction, its main UK creditor, the Bank of England, would sell off the gilts it has bought from Deutsche, putting the proceeds on Deutsche’s BoE Settlement Account, thus enabling it to settle its CHAPS liabilities. Deutsche’s liquidator would likewise sell off the gilts Deutsche was holding as High-Quality Liquid Assets in compliance with global liquidity rules, in order to pay depositors."
It's tosh, in that - if DB goes bust - then the German government would pick up the bill, just as the UK government did for RBS, Northern Rock, etc. Shareholders in Deutsche would lose everything, of course, but it would be effectively nationalised, as has happened to every major failing retail and commercial bank in the Western World in the last 75 years.
No bail-in for DB bond holders ? The Greeks and the Cypriots won't be happy.
When the Greek banks were recapitalised, there was no damage to deposit holders, senior or junior bondholders.
The situation is a little different with Cyprus because it was not the Cypriot government doing the bailing out. If Cyprus has been able to afford to bail its banks out, it would have. The reason that there were haircuts in Cyprus was because, to put it simply, it was German, Dutch and French taxpayers who were paying for the bailout. And it was not politically acceptable for their money to be used to recompense Russians with offshore bank accounts.
In the case of Deutsche Bank, I don't think anyone is claiming that the German government cannot afford a bailout. Even if it involved writing a €500bn cheque (which it doesn't), it would be within the means of the German government.
Of course, there is the question of state aid rules. My guess is that in the event of an emergency nationalisation of the bank, it would happen over a weekend, with shareholders losing everything, and then there being a 'restructuring' of junior bond holders to stay within the rules. (I think you'd see coupons unilaterally cut, and maturities pushed out a decade. So two year junior notes paying 4%, would become 12 year notes paying 1%. Which would be an effective haircut, but done in such a way as to minimise damage to the financial system.)
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
Kamal Ahmed Verified account @bbckamal Big moment: Chancellor admits pre-referendum Treasury analysis on Brexit and possible economic loss now at least partially invalid.
Tw@tter showing an Ipsos Mori showing the tories on 47%....
Is this new?
From the tweet ScottP posted:
"Ipsos MORI’s ongoing voting intentions figures show the Conservatives widening a lead over Labour to its highest since before the 2010 election. The Conservatives currently stand at 47%, compared with Labour at 29%, the Liberal Democrats at 7% and UKIP at 6%."
Seems Mayism is slightly more popular than Maoism.
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
@lindayueh: Chancellor confirms Bank of England independence; #Brexit means "starting from scratch" & key is "access" to/"operate inside" Single Market
Surely it is a good decision. Having a Remainer as head of the Brexit committee would be a bit ridiculous.
By that logic, we cannot have a Remainer as Prime Minister, ooh an excuse to ditch Theresa May, I like your thinking.
If only Dave backed LEAVE after the renegotiation, he would still be our PM AND an MP....
If only Dave backed LEAVE before the renegotiation, he would still be our PM AND an MP and LEAVE would have gained 65%+ .. but Osborne would have been locked on for next PM.
I'm not sure. It would have killed our anti-establishment angle, and did you see how Cameron campaigned for Remain? Frankly I'm glad he was on the other side.
Must be sorely tempting for May to call an election, however, Labour and the other parties would vote against it. Or would they vote for it to get rid of Corbyn? Even then, Corbyn wouldn't resign even if Labour were crushed. Labour are stuck with Corbyn and there's absolutely nothing they can do about it.
@faisalislam: "We haven't made any decision yet" on leaving customs union, says Hammond. Ie no decision on whether Trade Dept can actually sign new deals
@tnewtondunn: Hammond makes thinly veiled attack on Liam Fox: "Those that are undermining that effort are those seeking to close down options" #tsc
Corbyn is the single biggest threat to British democracy today. He's destroying the very concept of opposition. It's a blood disgrace that Labour has allowed this to happen and the MPs who know this don't have the bottle to create a new official Opposition.
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
"a price worth paying" right?
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
Not really, if it mattered people would have voted to remain.
Handwaving - yeah, just don't understand this term in the context it's used by PBers. Is it yet another awful PB/internet phrase like virtual signalling and waycist? What does it mean?!
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
"a price worth paying" right?
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
47% CON ? I can see Mrs May trembling in her boots.
Handwaving - yeah, just don't understand this term in the context it's used by PBers. Is it yet another awful PB/internet phrase like virtual signalling and waycist? What does it mean?!
So it doesn't mean dismiss! The definition you post does NOT mean dismiss.
"From wiki:
Handwaving is frequently used in low-quality debate, including political campaigning and commentary, issue-based advocacy, advertising and public relations, tabloid journalism, opinion pieces, Internet memes, and informal discussion and writing. If the opponent in a debate or commentator on an argument alleges hand-waving, it suggests the proponent of the argument, position or message has engaged in one or more fallacies of logic, usually informal, and/or glossed over non-trivial details, and is attempting to wave away challenges and deflect questions, as if swatting at flies."
"attempting to wave away challenges, deflect questions".. sounds a lot like dismissing something out of hand.
Handwaving - yeah, just don't understand this term in the context it's used by PBers. Is it yet another awful PB/internet phrase like virtual signalling and waycist? What does it mean?!
Look away TSE - "the effect of Theresa May's conference speech"
Sebastian Payne ✔ @SebastianEPayne Tories are 18pts (*18*) ahead of Labour in October's @IpsosMORI poll. Ukip down to 6pts - the effect of Theresa May's conference speech?
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
"a price worth paying" right?
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
Not really, if it mattered people would have voted to remain.
* It doesn't matter [tick] * Price worth paying [tick]
Hammond says... the government will not provide a running commentary. Tyrie says there is a running commentary in the press every time the cabinet Brexit committee meets. The best way to avoid that would be to stop it meeting, he says.
@lindayueh: Chancellor confirms Bank of England independence; #Brexit means "starting from scratch" & key is "access" to/"operate inside" Single Market
Sacked next week then?
The USA has access to and operates inside the Single Market, as does half the world, not the same thing as being a member of the Single Market.
Look away TSE - "the effect of Theresa May's conference speech"
Sebastian Payne ✔ @SebastianEPayne Tories are 18pts (*18*) ahead of Labour in October's @IpsosMORI poll. Ukip down to 6pts - the effect of Theresa May's conference speech?
What a shocker, May more in tune with the country than her critics.
Surely it is a good decision. Having a Remainer as head of the Brexit committee would be a bit ridiculous.
By that logic, we cannot have a Remainer as Prime Minister, ooh an excuse to ditch Theresa May, I like your thinking.
If only Dave backed LEAVE after the renegotiation, he would still be our PM AND an MP....
If only Dave backed LEAVE before the renegotiation, he would still be our PM AND an MP and LEAVE would have gained 65%+ .. but Osborne would have been locked on for next PM.
I'm not sure. It would have killed our anti-establishment angle, and did you see how Cameron campaigned for Remain? Frankly I'm glad he was on the other side.
Cameron probably pushed about 10% of those who voted into LEAVE but the Govt operation probably shifted 20% of those who voted from anti-EU to REMAIN on the basis of fear. Without that Govt operation, LEAVE would have walked this, because it had a very solid UKIP vote etc.
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
"a price worth paying" right?
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
Not really, if it mattered people would have voted to remain.
* It doesn't matter [tick] * Price worth paying [tick]
Now where is Anorak's checklist??
No, it's true. If economic growth was the national priority then the vote would have been for remain. We've just had an irritating discussion about handwaving, well this is what you've just done.
Hammond says... the government will not provide a running commentary. Tyrie says there is a running commentary in the press every time the cabinet Brexit committee meets. The best way to avoid that would be to stop it meeting, he says.
Look away TSE - "the effect of Theresa May's conference speech"
Sebastian Payne ✔ @SebastianEPayne Tories are 18pts (*18*) ahead of Labour in October's @IpsosMORI poll. Ukip down to 6pts - the effect of Theresa May's conference speech?
What a shocker, May more in tune with the country than her critics.
the only one in England looking vaguely competent (an illusion, I think)
Who will be more depressed at those figures ? Labourites or moaning faced wet blue remainers ?
The LibDems
Not really. Getting back to being seen as the third party (outside Scotland) is a good first base. And up is always better than down.
Witney was never a winnable proposition - and the Betfair odds have been slowly lengthening all week. Nevertheless a clear second place looks a reasonable possibility.
Surely it is a good decision. Having a Remainer as head of the Brexit committee would be a bit ridiculous.
By that logic, we cannot have a Remainer as Prime Minister, ooh an excuse to ditch Theresa May, I like your thinking.
May has recanted her Remain support - vocal as it was during the campaign
For once Corbyn is right here. Hoey is a sensible choice and a genuine expert too.
Politically, it's a silly position because (1) it splits him from the PLP again, unnecessarily, and (2) there's a reasonable chance he'll end up on the losing side, which would be a big win for his MPs against him - as well as defining Benn as one of their principal spokesmen.
That assumes (1) the PLP, Benn and Corbyn were united in the first place and nothing else would come up to divide them (we know both aren't true) and (2) that Benn wasn't already viewed as a principal alternative spokesman.
Whether Corbyn supports Benn or not if he gets elected he'll have a platform. On the other hand if Hoey gets elected then that denies Benn that platform.
That's fair comment but all the same, it's Corbyn who'll be seen to have forced the split rather than his opponents. That matters in terms of goodwill from swing voters in Labour's selectorate.
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
"a price worth paying" right?
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
Not really, if it mattered people would have voted to remain.
* It doesn't matter [tick] * Price worth paying [tick]
Now where is Anorak's checklist??
No, it's true. If economic growth was the national priority then the vote would have been for remain. We've just had an irritating discussion about handwaving, well this is what you've just done.
Except...people voted Leave not thinking there would be any economic disadvantage. Indeed many of them voted thinking there would be a specific and quantified economic benefit in leaving which could, ahem, then be applied to the NHS, etc.
It was only a small subset of Leavers who understood that "Project Fear", the more sensible parts of it, anyway, were likely to transpire, more or less.
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Osborne was right...
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
Except they still seem to be voting Tory in ever greater numbers.
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
"a price worth paying" right?
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
47% CON ? I can see Mrs May trembling in her boots.
Is 47% with IPSOS better than anything Cameron got?
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
Quick reaction, yes a bigger share of the vote for the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems. I expect UKIP vote to slip back, late with candidate and little sign on the ground.
A couple of diverse thoughts for a Wednesday afternoon:
The Conservative poll lead is impressive as were the Labour leads under Blair. May is benefitting from being, if you like, both the sum of all hopes and the sum of all fears. If you want Brexit soft boiled, hard boiled or half baked, you can find a reason to support May because you can project all of that on to her.
Even on the potentially divisive issue of Heathrow, the "kicking the can down the road" tendency is in charge. Nothing can or will be done to deflate the enormous tent in which it seems nearly half of us are happy to reside.
As with Blair and Clinton, May has popularity by virtue of inactivity. The tough decisions aren't taken, we simply drift or coast along until the next crisis. Before this sounds like a critique, it's basically how Britain normally functions.
As Blair found out, however, and May will discover, the tent won't hold everyone once the decisions have to be made but of course she has the ultimate fallback position in Jeremy Corbyn.
On then to matters across the Pond and as HRC appears to be consolidating a decisive advantage (though with three weeks and one debate to go, she's a long way from being home and dry), it seems the opposition to her is getting more agitated with every day and every poor poll and failure to report every scintilla of Wikileaks.
To this observer, the pro-Trump, or should that be anti-HRC elements are making the same mistake the REMAIN side made in the EU Referendum. While I have heard loads of vitriol explaining why I shouldn't vote for HRC, I've heard almost nothing saying why I should vote FOR Trump.
As with REMAIN, Trump plays to the fear and to the anger but offers nothing positive or hopeful. There's something about cutting taxes and making America "great again" (whatever that means) but the personalisation of the message (I'm Donald, I know what I'm doing) is almost as bad as Cameron's which was essentially "Trust me, I'm Dave".
Compare and contrast with Reagan, a relentlessly positive campaigner. Had the GOP chosen someone with even a tenth of Reagan's charisma, they'd be cantering to victory now. Instead we see states like GA and TX coming "into play" for HRC,
''Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores. ''
Yes that is undoubtedly true. Witney's result will be interesting, given this.
Looks to me as though the Customs Union (but not membership of the Single Market) idea is very much on the table. I'm warming to that approach. Dunno if our EU friends would go along with it, though.
Would Leavers go along with it?
Well, it wouldn't require freedom of movement or the ECJ interfering in our affairs, or CAP, of CFP, or the EAW (unless we signed up separately), and it would mean much-reduced contributions to the EU budget. The big economic advantage would be zero paperwork, hassle and tariffs on trading manufactured goods, so excellent for our car industry for example.
On the negative side, it would mean we'd have to implement EU tariffs, so no separate trade agreements with other countries. But, realistically, is that an issue?
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.
But children who live in areas where education is allocated selectively don't have the chance to attend non-selective schools. (That's even before we get onto whether or not attending a grammar school is actually an advantage for those selected, whether it is a good way to allocate publically provided resources and whether we even have the tests that can select appropriately.)
Who will be more depressed at those figures ? Labourites or moaning faced wet blue remainers ?
Lolz.
I predicted that May's speech and positioning (much of which I didn't like) would be hugely popular. She's managed to get Labour and Kippers into her big tent in one go. In pure politics, that's very impressive.
Her big tent full of sweet air is doing fine for now, despite lack of tent pegs. Her test will come when people see the reality of Brexit, as distinct from a quilt of sewn-together half baked dreams and Bullshit a la SeanT.
Comments
I think Трумп would have been better.
@chrisshipitv
Hammond hits the soundbites: "monetary policy has a distributional impact...Fiscal policy will correct any of the distributional outcomes"
That sounds like a hint that his Autumn Statement might be a more radical change from Osborne's approach than people have been expecting.
If you're a higher-rate taxpayer, get your pension contributions in before Nov 23rd, just to be on the safe side...
No decision yet from the first leg of Kingdom United versus Bayern Brussels?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKrAQhpX1f4
but Osborne would have been locked on for next PM.
Is this new?
Whether Corbyn supports Benn or not if he gets elected he'll have a platform. On the other hand if Hoey gets elected then that denies Benn that platform.
"Ipsos MORI’s ongoing voting intentions figures show the Conservatives widening a lead over Labour to its highest since before the 2010 election. The Conservatives currently stand at 47%, compared with Labour at 29%, the Liberal Democrats at 7% and UKIP at 6%."
Easy on the poor guy. It can;t be easy for an Osbornite, posting a poll like that.
Conservatives 47% (+7)
Labour 29% (-5)
LDs 7% (+1)
UKIP 6% (-3)
@SimonMAtkinson: NEW @IpsosMORI:.Brits think they will be worse off rather than better off as a result of #Brexit, by 49% to 24% ipsos-mori.com/researchpublic…
As a dog returneth to his vomit, so a fool returneth to his folly.
Is that really the King James version?!
The situation is a little different with Cyprus because it was not the Cypriot government doing the bailing out. If Cyprus has been able to afford to bail its banks out, it would have. The reason that there were haircuts in Cyprus was because, to put it simply, it was German, Dutch and French taxpayers who were paying for the bailout. And it was not politically acceptable for their money to be used to recompense Russians with offshore bank accounts.
In the case of Deutsche Bank, I don't think anyone is claiming that the German government cannot afford a bailout. Even if it involved writing a €500bn cheque (which it doesn't), it would be within the means of the German government.
Of course, there is the question of state aid rules. My guess is that in the event of an emergency nationalisation of the bank, it would happen over a weekend, with shareholders losing everything, and then there being a 'restructuring' of junior bond holders to stay within the rules. (I think you'd see coupons unilaterally cut, and maturities pushed out a decade. So two year junior notes paying 4%, would become 12 year notes paying 1%. Which would be an effective haircut, but done in such a way as to minimise damage to the financial system.)
Con 392
Lab 176
LD 5
UKIP 1
Green 1
SNP 5
PC 3
NI 18
Majority 134
Its quite possible Brits think they will be worse off, but think that it will be worth it.
@bbckamal
Big moment: Chancellor admits pre-referendum Treasury analysis on Brexit and possible economic loss now at least partially invalid.
I do wonder how things will change if the yellows get a shock win in Witney.
Lab 29%
I think Labour are >5% over stated.
Terrible numbers for the Brexiteers.
The beginning of the end?
Sacked next week then?
I guess it is real!
@tnewtondunn: Hammond makes thinly veiled attack on Liam Fox: "Those that are undermining that effort are those seeking to close down options" #tsc
Tricky times ahead, but she seems to be navigating choppy waters well.
Handwaving is frequently used in low-quality debate, including political campaigning and commentary, issue-based advocacy, advertising and public relations, tabloid journalism, opinion pieces, Internet memes, and informal discussion and writing. If the opponent in a debate or commentator on an argument alleges hand-waving, it suggests the proponent of the argument, position or message has engaged in one or more fallacies of logic, usually informal, and/or glossed over non-trivial details, and is attempting to wave away challenges and deflect questions, as if swatting at flies."
"attempting to wave away challenges, deflect questions".. sounds a lot like dismissing something out of hand.
Let's flag it.
No-one else knew he meant cancel it – which caused a few problems...
''Come and see what you could have won...''
Sebastian Payne ✔ @SebastianEPayne
Tories are 18pts (*18*) ahead of Labour in October's @IpsosMORI poll. Ukip down to 6pts - the effect of Theresa May's conference speech?
* Price worth paying [tick]
Now where is Anorak's checklist??
Hammond says... the government will not provide a running commentary. Tyrie says there is a running commentary in the press every time the cabinet Brexit committee meets. The best way to avoid that would be to stop it meeting, he says.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2016/oct/19/pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-angela-eagle-was-subect-to-homophobic-abuse-after-challenging-corbyn-labour-inquiry-finds-politics-live
That poll seems to suggest hard Brexit scoops up a giant dollop of UKIP votes, with hardly any leakage of tory remainers to the Liberal democrats.
Dreadful poll for Osbornites. Just dreadful.
has ol marco lost some emails d'ye reckon? or found a principle?
@HurstLlama? Your recollection?
Lolz.
Declaration was at 4.30 last May.
Tory lead now at 18 points. I'm not sure Theresa May can survive this public backlash against her "lurch to the right"...
"Quote" rel="Scott_P">@OliverCooper: New Ipsos-MORI poll shows the Conservatives destroying Labour and UKIP:
Conservatives 47% (+7)
Labour 29% (-5)
LDs 7% (+1)
UKIP 6% (-3)
Who will be more depressed at those figures ? Labourites or moaning faced wet blue remainers ?
Mark Senior.
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.
Not really. Getting back to being seen as the third party (outside Scotland) is a good first base. And up is always better than down.
Witney was never a winnable proposition - and the Betfair odds have been slowly lengthening all week. Nevertheless a clear second place looks a reasonable possibility.
It was only a small subset of Leavers who understood that "Project Fear", the more sensible parts of it, anyway, were likely to transpire, more or less.
Does the pb commentariat think that the Conservatives, Labour and the Lib Dems will collectively take more or less of the vote at the Witney by-election than they collectively took at the general election?
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
A couple of diverse thoughts for a Wednesday afternoon:
The Conservative poll lead is impressive as were the Labour leads under Blair. May is benefitting from being, if you like, both the sum of all hopes and the sum of all fears. If you want Brexit soft boiled, hard boiled or half baked, you can find a reason to support May because you can project all of that on to her.
Even on the potentially divisive issue of Heathrow, the "kicking the can down the road" tendency is in charge. Nothing can or will be done to deflate the enormous tent in which it seems nearly half of us are happy to reside.
As with Blair and Clinton, May has popularity by virtue of inactivity. The tough decisions aren't taken, we simply drift or coast along until the next crisis. Before this sounds like a critique, it's basically how Britain normally functions.
As Blair found out, however, and May will discover, the tent won't hold everyone once the decisions have to be made but of course she has the ultimate fallback position in Jeremy Corbyn.
On then to matters across the Pond and as HRC appears to be consolidating a decisive advantage (though with three weeks and one debate to go, she's a long way from being home and dry), it seems the opposition to her is getting more agitated with every day and every poor poll and failure to report every scintilla of Wikileaks.
To this observer, the pro-Trump, or should that be anti-HRC elements are making the same mistake the REMAIN side made in the EU Referendum. While I have heard loads of vitriol explaining why I shouldn't vote for HRC, I've heard almost nothing saying why I should vote FOR Trump.
As with REMAIN, Trump plays to the fear and to the anger but offers nothing positive or hopeful. There's something about cutting taxes and making America "great again" (whatever that means) but the personalisation of the message (I'm Donald, I know what I'm doing) is almost as bad as Cameron's which was essentially "Trust me, I'm Dave".
Compare and contrast with Reagan, a relentlessly positive campaigner. Had the GOP chosen someone with even a tenth of Reagan's charisma, they'd be cantering to victory now. Instead we see states like GA and TX coming "into play" for HRC,
Yes that is undoubtedly true. Witney's result will be interesting, given this.
On the negative side, it would mean we'd have to implement EU tariffs, so no separate trade agreements with other countries. But, realistically, is that an issue?