I might be suffering from false memory, but I can't recall the term "Customs Union" coming up on PB in the brief discussion we had on Brexit ahead of the referendum. It was all EEA/EFTA, blah, blah, blah, never CU.
Mr. 43, you've missed off that the EU deals are there to suit the EU as a whole. A deal (even with us in) that helps Italy, Slovenia and France but harms us would be seen as a positive.
The advantage of our own deals is that they're done in the British national interest, not the EU interest.
With us out (if we leave...), the EU will be even less inclined to care if the deals they negotiate on our behalf harm us and help the EU.
We can still negotiate our own preferential trade agreements as part of the Customs Union. Turkey has them. I think the constraint is on not being able to set the import tariffs differently from the EU. Thinking about it, my second advantage for leaving the Customs is neutral because that would apply if we were in the Customs Union as well. The only practical advantage of leaving is the ability to set import tariffs at a lower rate than the EU.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.
If the Unite the Right movement is in full swing then let's just say I'd like to see a consistent pattern of reporting from the other companies before I'll start to believe it (the ICM and YouGov numbers from earlier in the month *may* be the first signs of this happening, but there's still not nearly enough data out there to start drawing conclusions.)
I might be suffering from false memory, but I can't recall the term "Customs Union" coming up on PB in the brief discussion we had on Brexit ahead of the referendum. It was all EEA/EFTA, blah, blah, blah, never CU.
Moving on from what the majority on here seems to think is a hopeless cause to consider a number of other perhaps more hopeful causes.
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Hmm...as you were the one who started harping on about using national polls as a guide to by election results, I'll take that as a disaster for the Conservatives if they don't get at least 65% in Witney.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOS
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Spherical Objects.
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOS
Get on the blower to OGH, we need smiling Theresas as we used to have the smiling Gordons.
I might be suffering from false memory, but I can't recall the term "Customs Union" coming up on PB in the brief discussion we had on Brexit ahead of the referendum. It was all EEA/EFTA, blah, blah, blah, never CU.
If you are part of the Single Market (EEA) you have tariff free access to the EU for goods, services and agricultural products. You don't need the more limited access of the Customs Union.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Spherical Objects.
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .
Ah yes, parish by elections are the true indicator of party support in the country.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOS
Cameron got his 52% while in Opposition, in September 2008,
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.
But children who live in areas where education is allocated selectively don't have the chance to attend non-selective schools. (That's even before we get onto whether or not attending a grammar school is actually an advantage for those selected, whether it is a good way to allocate publically provided resources and whether we even have the tests that can select appropriately.)
Sorry are you saying that children in areas with Grammar schools don't have the chance to go to the local comprehensive? Is that so?
I am just pointing out that you either have a selective system or a comprehensive system. You can't have both at the same time. So you can't use the argument that not having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a grammar without acknowledging that having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a comprehensive. It is only a comprehensive school if it has the full range of abilities.
Having Kate Hoey scrutinise Brexit is like having IDS scrutinise the case for the Iraq war.
Utter nonsense as a premise. 'The case' is no longer being scrutinised. The equivalent would actually be the decision to go to war in Iraq having been decided, and the conduct of the campaign being scrutinised by Iain Duncan Smith. Which would seem perfectly valid to me.
There is every bit as much justification for a committed Eurosceptic to scrutinise this process as there is for a Europhile to scrutinise it.
This thread has clearly been written in anger. Bit embarrassing.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Spherical Objects.
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .
There's no motivation to vote Tory in locals. Corbyn can't get in to government via locals. And people are bored of politics and voting. Hence the disparity between polls and council elections.
Be assured, when and if May faces Corbyn in 2020, the Tories will come out, in many millions.
Cameron managed to motivate people to vote Tory in local elections only a few months ago .
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.
Moving on from what the majority on here seems to think is a hopeless cause to consider a number of other perhaps more hopeful causes.
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.
Texas is close. I may be tempted if I was Clinton to invest in Texas and Arizona. Turning them purple would screw up the republicans for future elections. Gerogia maybe as well: early voting among minorities is up there apparently.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Spherical Objects.
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .
Ah yes, parish by elections are the true indicator of party support in the country.
You are the only one on here to have mentioned parish elections . What is your fixation with them ?
The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the Scotland figures - Lab 24% Con 22%.
It's very open to question whether that's a bright spot. Labour would rather have its support where it could win seats. 24% in Scotland isn't going to improve the seat tally. If Labour is going to poll at 29% across Britain as a whole, it either wants to poll much more strongly in Scotland or much more weakly.
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.
Good point. Still means I have to buy *yet another* adaptor for my USB-A external drives. Not to mention the reported demise of the headphone jack and magsafe adaptor (which seems like a massive downgrade when you do eventually trip over your power cable).
2. The UK may be more flexible in negotiating deals with third countries and so may have a higher chance of success than the EU for deals still to be signed.
That's a bit disingenuous, how exactly are you supposed to negotiate a trade agreement of any sort when you are in control of neither the tariffs of the NTBs security/environment/law enforcement standards at the border ?
''There's no motivation to vote Tory in locals. Corbyn can't get in to government via locals. And people are bored of politics and voting. Hence the disparity between polls and council elections.''
Are you saying voters are quite happy to let the libs clean the toilets, but no way are they getting into the boardroom?
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
Tanks on all lawns captures a lot of votes.
My luvvie mate on FB who went all Godwins law on the Tory party conference is going to hate this. Nearly half the population support the Tories.
In GOVERNMENT.
Where is AVE'IT when you need him?
You're in danger of sounding a lot like Sion Simon meets IOS
Get on the blower to OGH, we need smiling Theresas as we used to have the smiling Gordons.
The Lib Dems are tallying 7% in the polls because they are being forgotten about. If something happens to make the public not forget about them, they might well rise quite a bit in the polls.
A moderate performance in a by-election is not, however, going to do the trick. They really need to win one.
.............I'll leave the non-LDs on here to play the expectations management game for the LDs as they seem to enjoy it. Perhaps I should play the Conservative expectation game - on the national polls, the Conservatives should romp home with an increased majority on 70% of the vote. Anything less will clearly be a huge setback for Mrs May.
Spherical Objects.
The only party clearly overstated in the opinion polls is the Conservatives . In the last 3 months they have polled less than 30% in local elections even below Corbyn's Labour . At least when Cameron was leader , Conservatives turned out to vote in local elections . They are now just armchair voters .
Ah yes, parish by elections are the true indicator of party support in the country.
You are the only one on here to have mentioned parish elections . What is your fixation with them ?
I admit, sarcasm is quite hard to detect on the internet.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
''There's no motivation to vote Tory in locals. Corbyn can't get in to government via locals. And people are bored of politics and voting. Hence the disparity between polls and council elections.''
Are you saying voters are quite happy to let the libs clean the toilets, but no way are they getting into the boardroom?
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.
Good point. Still means I have to buy *yet another* adaptor for my USB-A external drives. Not to mention the reported demise of the headphone jack and magsafe adaptor (which seems like a massive downgrade when you do eventually trip over your power cable).
Yeah the headphones and magsafe stuff is idiotic, but USB-C is 5GB/s and can carry enough power to run pretty much any device without requiring it to have its own power supply, and in many ways more importantly is dramatically more robust.
To this observer, the pro-Trump, or should that be anti-HRC elements are making the same mistake the REMAIN side made in the EU Referendum. While I have heard loads of vitriol explaining why I shouldn't vote for HRC, I've heard almost nothing saying why I should vote FOR Trump.
As with REMAIN, Trump plays to the fear and to the anger but offers nothing positive or hopeful. There's something about cutting taxes and making America "great again" (whatever that means) but the personalisation of the message (I'm Donald, I know what I'm doing) is almost as bad as Cameron's which was essentially "Trust me, I'm Dave".
Good point. Clinton vs. Trump is not really Remain vs. Leave, as some here have suggested, but Remain vs. Remain.
Hmm. I think yes amongst the two candidates personally that makes sense. A Remain vs Leave comparison is more apt when looking at their respective voter pools however. Trump will be largely fishing for votes in the same pool as Brexit did, those people may well vote trump in spite of Trump, it's the movement he represents (however poorly he is representing it currently). The question is whether he can top that up with enough republican loyalists to get him over the line (much like leave had to do with Hannanites and Marxists joining the populist voters). I think it's unlikely now but bet there is a lot of shy trumpers and it will be much closer than current polling suggests.
On the customs union I think it is possible the U.K. stays in it for Goods (a la Turkey) whilst retaining some latitude to negotiate on services and non-tariff barriers outwith it, but it would mean obeying all EU rules on product standards without having a say.
Why on EARTH would we do that? We LOSE money under the current arrangements.
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.
Good point. Still means I have to buy *yet another* adaptor for my USB-A external drives. Not to mention the reported demise of the headphone jack and magsafe adaptor (which seems like a massive downgrade when you do eventually trip over your power cable).
Yeah the headphones and magsafe stuff is idiotic, but USB-C is 5GB/s and can carry enough power to run pretty much any device without requiring it to have its own power supply, and in many ways more importantly is dramatically more robust.
Yeah. I suppose one port could be used for all my external things while the other is used for charging. Still feels like a downgrade from what I have right now .Of course, I don't have to get a new one. How is the port dramatically more robust? Can't say I've ever had an old USB port break on me.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.
)
I think there is a lot in what you say regarding Mori's volatility. The sample size is only 625 for those giving a voting intention , though I am not quite sure what that implies re-MOE.It certainly does not confirm ICM's huge gender gap which showed a 30% Tory lead for women compared with 11% for men. Mori shows a 25% Con lead for men and a Con lead of 11% for women. Who to believe?
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
Looking at the polls, there is a Survey Monkey poll showing Clinton 4 points ahead, but it seems to be an outlier. RCP has Trump ahead by 5.3, and 538 by 2.4.
I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
I am not sure why you find the two results so hard to square. Quite a few people who voted to leave accepted that there might be a hit to their standard of living if we did leave.
"Soft Brexit", whatever that means, is irrelevant.
On the last thread you asked me "isn't the point of Grammar schools that not everyone has the chance to go to one?"
I'd say no that isn't the point. 'Every one should have the chance to go to one' isn't the same as 'everyone should go to one'
Plenty of children are barred from the opportunity to take the test. They don't have the chance.
But children who live in areas where education is allocated selectively don't have the chance to attend non-selective schools. (That's even before we get onto whether or not attending a grammar school is actually an advantage for those selected, whether it is a good way to allocate publically provided resources and whether we even have the tests that can select appropriately.)
Sorry are you saying that children in areas with Grammar schools don't have the chance to go to the local comprehensive? Is that so?
I am just pointing out that you either have a selective system or a comprehensive system. You can't have both at the same time. So you can't use the argument that not having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a grammar without acknowledging that having grammar schools deprives people of the choice to go to a comprehensive. It is only a comprehensive school if it has the full range of abilities.
That's true I guess semantically. I meant they had the choice not to go to a grammar, and I shouldn't think the non grammars would be worse than the comprehensive they replace, but I suppose that's the key argument.
We'll see. Carney's not impressed in recent months.
Mr. Felix, au contraire, it's what happens when the Bank of England is under the stewardship of a Remain-backing foreigner (who also closed the old bank at the, er, Bank).
I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
If you are a left leaner, you vote Labour even though you know taxes are going to go up and you are going to be poorer, because it makes the world better, or at least it make you think the world is better, or possibly it just makes you feel good about thinking the world might be better. In anycase the cost is incidental and acceptable within certain limits.
I think the same is true of a lot of Leave voters, its just that the load of mercantilist free-traders we have on here cannot conceive of anything which costs them more being better under any circumstance.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
A couple of polls today say she is ahead by 4/5pts. Washington Post and a GOP private poll.
Hmm...as you were the one who started harping on about using national polls as a guide to by election results, I'll take that as a disaster for the Conservatives if they don't get at least 65% in Witney. Many thanks.
From an electoral angle it may be a good idea for Corbyn to put a labour leaver in a senior role on the Brexit committee. Brexit was ultimately achieved by labour voters. If Corbyn is bothered by labour surviving, of course, these voters need to keep voting labour.
Its hard to see where this stop brexit movement, which no doubt Benn will epitomise, is going to achieve. The aim seems to be to rule out hard brexit. But as we know, this then weakens our negotiating stance considerably.
I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
Bloomberg @business Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh
I can't see him staying around long.
I hope not. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well. It were done quickly: I gain on these rate cuts, but the country loses. Carney has to go.
I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
Hobson's choice. As soon as it was clear that Cameron had stopped the Civil Service from doing any contingency work on a Leave vote, and basically did sod all during the leadership campaign, it was obvious that May was going to have to start from scratch, and only a fool would trigger Article 50 without having sounded out partners and got a team together and thrashed out a basic position.
''I hope not. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well. It were done quickly: I gain on these rate cuts, but the country loses. Carney has to go.''
Been calling for it for months. Carney is determined that Brexit has to have an effect. It just has to. And he is determined to provoke that effect.
I see the bbc is engaging in classic bias by omission over the migrant adults kids story. Not showing pictures of the most obviously dodgy examples of individuals claiming to be kids and clearly not, no mention of home office own figures showing 2/3s of similar cases are found not to be kids & failing to mention the dodgy background of the family of the kid lily Allen met.
Instead the focus is on the outrage that anybody would question any of this.
I'm finding it hard to entirely square this with huge support for the Tories
@MikeTQUB Ipsos MORI poll: 24% think that decision to leave EU will be better for their standard of living and 48% that it will be worse
Another pointer to Soft Brexit, perhaps....
It's an entirely Corbynite result
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...
Quite possibly so. I detect little real enthusiasm for Mrs May.
She is just the last one standing after the implosion of all competing parties. In the land of the blind the one eyed woman is Queen.
I suspect your social circle does not include many people who would normally be enthused by a Tory leader?
Mrs Indigo (Snr) reports that she is going down extremely well with the Hereford rural purple rinsers, many of whom were flirting with the kippers before the GE. Comments are apparently along the lines of it being nice to have a "proper" Tory back in No.10
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
A couple of polls today say she is ahead by 4/5pts. Washington Post and a GOP private poll.
Well, if those were accurate, it would suggest that about half a dozen states where Trump has been leading so far were vulnerable, including Texas.
Though I am sceptical of the polIs generally, I agree that 47% is an astonishing result for a governing party. I suspect it might be due to UKIP losing supporters hand over fist now that their job is done. So perhaps this is more due to Conservative voters returning home as it were than any increase in actual support
I suspect that this apparent jump in Tory support is more down to Ipsos being an outlier in recent times, together with the fact that their figures for the Conservatives yo-yo like anything, than any other cause. They had the Tories up on 45% in mid-August, then back down to "only" 40% in mid-September, and then back up to 47% today - against a backdrop of more steady values (in around the 38-42% range) for the other pollsters. They also publish atypically low Ukip figures.
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I think there is a lot in what you say regarding Mori's volatility. The sample size is only 625 for those giving a voting intention , though I am not quite sure what that implies re-MOE.It certainly does not confirm ICM's huge gender gap which showed a 30% Tory lead for women compared with 11% for men. Mori shows a 25% Con lead for men and a Con lead of 11% for women. Who to believe?
It's always a bit of a guessing game, of course, but I reckon that the pollsters were reasonably close at the last GE (bar the all-important 3% Lab to Con swing, which spoiled everything,) so the mean of all of the recent polling figures probably isn't too far from the truth, either.
So, if we go to the latest published version of the Britain Elects spreadsheet (which doesn't yet include today's Ipsos,) and simply tot up the 22 polls shown for the period since the start of August, you get the following mean values:
Con 40% Lab 29% LD 8% Ukip 12%
Or you could read that as Con 43%, Lab 26% if you remain to be convinced that the pollsters have properly corrected their anti-Tory bias...
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
That Arizona poll included about 21% undecideds, so the numbers can't be directly compared with previous election results.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
I'm pretty sure I sure a report claiming polling had shown HRC ahead in Georgia but I sit to be corrected.
A couple of polls today say she is ahead by 4/5pts. Washington Post and a GOP private poll.
Well, if those were accurate, it would suggest that about half a dozen states where Trump has been leading so far were vulnerable, including Texas.
Re the Mori poll, I'm sure I can't be alone in finding it hard to reconcile Con 47% LD 7% with the prospect of a LD gain in Witney. Something is wrong with the reporting somewhere. Sure, local campaigning matters but you can't go negative effectively when you're badly yourself or when the party you're going against isn't.
Frankly, considering the last month the government's had, I'm surprised the Lib Dems aren't doing better - they certainly are in local by-elections - but all the same, the polls keep churning out single-figure scores.
As some of us have been saying for a while, ahem, the polls suggest the LDs don't have a hope in Witney. And they don't.
Interesting how some gleefully tell us a Liberal surprise is on the cards in Witney when they are 40% behind in opinion polls yet mock anyone who suggests it is still possible that Trump might win when he is 4% behind in opinion polls.
Is Corbyn actually being fairly astute over Brexit? He has very little in common with Hoey politically, but by supporting a prominent Labour Leaver, he may well be on the way to ideas to recapture the WWC Leave vote for the Left (which I think has been his longstanding view).
A hard Brexit with defensive tariffs, import substitution and government interference in industry is just his cup of tea.
Moving on from what the majority on here seems to think is a hopeless cause to consider a number of other perhaps more hopeful causes.
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.
The key thing is that it's a Republican slump not a Dem surge. So this means if anything happens to motivate the Rep base then Republican numbers could jump up rapidly in these Red states wiping out Hilary's current leads/gains.
As the wise man on here said: May's support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
That was me!!!
Still true. May reigns supreme in the absence of a viable offer from anyone else. And at the end of the day she feels like "one of us" to large swathes of Tory Britain in a way we haven't seen for a generation.
But if Brexit and/or economy falter, she'll have issues, and as the PM polling shows she is not loved.
Good to see UKIP down too.
On committee chairs the "right" decisions seem to have been made. It feels like parliament is at the centre of our politics again which is very very healthy.
I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
Hobson's choice. As soon as it was clear that Cameron had stopped the Civil Service from doing any contingency work on a Leave vote, and basically did sod all during the leadership campaign, it was obvious that May was going to have to start from scratch, and only a fool would trigger Article 50 without having sounded out partners and got a team together and thrashed out a basic position.
Step forward Andrea Leadsom and Ian Duncan Smith! The point was that people like Jeremy Hunt, who said we wouldn't do it until 2020, were moved out of the picture. Mays mistake was to commit to triggering article 50. She got bounced in to it by the leavers that were surrounding her and the prospect of needing to be elected by the tory grassroots. I'm pretty convinced that had Leadsom not stepped down, she had a good chance of winning a vote in the grassroots.
Is Corbyn actually being fairly astute over Brexit? He has very little in common with Hoey politically, but by supporting a prominent Labour Leaver, he may well be on the way to ideas to recapture the WWC Leave vote for the Left (which I think has been his longstanding view).
A hard Brexit with defensive tariffs, import substitution and government interference in industry is just his cup of tea.
Hmm...I have commented a few times that the collapse of UKIP gave May a chance to really clean up but I must expect that I did not expect it to happen so quickly.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
If this opinion poll were reflected in Witney the Tories would get about 70% of the vote.
Even if the opposition parties were to underperform, I'd be astonished if the Tories scored 70% of the entire vote in Witney. By-elections ≠ general elections.
Comments
Clinton 1.215
Trump 6.1
Neither Clinton nor Trump: implied price 76.8
Pence 480
McMullin 625
Kaine 980
If the Unite the Right movement is in full swing then let's just say I'd like to see a consistent pattern of reporting from the other companies before I'll start to believe it (the ICM and YouGov numbers from earlier in the month *may* be the first signs of this happening, but there's still not nearly enough data out there to start drawing conclusions.)
How far into the Red states can HRC go ?
With a poll today showing a 5-point lead for HRC in AZ, maybe we should be thinking of where else the HRC bandwagon could roll.
Obama lost Arizona 45-54 in 2008 (McCain was the GOP candidate) but Romney won 53.5-44.5 in 2012 so for HRC to be 5 points up (43-38) suggests not so much a jump in the Democrat vote but a slump in the GOP vote.
As for Georgia where Clinton is apparently running ahead by 4-5 points, in 2008 Obama lost 47-52 to McCain and in 2012 45-53 to Romney. Again, it looks like a GOP vote slump.
In other areas, the GOP firewall seems to be holding - the last Montana poll kept Trump 10 points up in a state won by 14 by Romney and of course there's the very real possibility of Trump winning OH.
I'd love to see some other states having polls to give us some more clues - MA with a 26 point Clinton lead doesn't surprise that much.
Many thanks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2010_United_Kingdom_general_election
Bloody rubbish. Too small, felt cheap, looks like Monopoly money.
There is every bit as much justification for a committed Eurosceptic to scrutinise this process as there is for a Europhile to scrutinise it.
This thread has clearly been written in anger. Bit embarrassing.
Cooper beats Umunna and Flint
It will have USB-C the new standard, and much superior to the current generation. The adapters for old devices are available for generic suppliers for about 15 quid.
Are you saying voters are quite happy to let the libs clean the toilets, but no way are they getting into the boardroom?
I've got something spectacular planned.
Also, surely you mean Clinton is behind by 4-5 points in Georgia?
One poll, but it does look like an outlier (and has a poor rating from 538).
Surveymonkey had Clinton with a +5
LEAVE 52%
REMAIN 48%
*runs and hides*
Bloomberg
@business
Economists think the Bank of England will cut its key interest rate to 0.1% next month http://bloom.bg/2e0fBgh
"Soft Brexit", whatever that means, is irrelevant.
*Sunil whistles innocently*
We'll see. Carney's not impressed in recent months.
Mr. Felix, au contraire, it's what happens when the Bank of England is under the stewardship of a Remain-backing foreigner (who also closed the old bank at the, er, Bank).
Do you like Brexit? No
Will you vote for Labour? Hell No...
I think the same is true of a lot of Leave voters, its just that the load of mercantilist free-traders we have on here cannot conceive of anything which costs them more being better under any circumstance.
Its hard to see where this stop brexit movement, which no doubt Benn will epitomise, is going to achieve. The aim seems to be to rule out hard brexit. But as we know, this then weakens our negotiating stance considerably.
I can't help thinking that we have f**ked up by putting ourselves on this path to triggering article 50.
I gain on these rate cuts, but the country loses. Carney has to go.
She is just the last one standing after the implosion of all competing parties. In the land of the blind the one eyed woman is Queen.
I gain on these rate cuts, but the country loses. Carney has to go.''
Been calling for it for months. Carney is determined that Brexit has to have an effect. It just has to. And he is determined to provoke that effect.
Utterly discredited.
adultskids story. Not showing pictures of the most obviously dodgy examples of individuals claiming to be kids and clearly not, no mention of home office own figures showing 2/3s of similar cases are found not to be kids & failing to mention the dodgy background of the family of the kid lily Allen met.Instead the focus is on the outrage that anybody would question any of this.
So, if we go to the latest published version of the Britain Elects spreadsheet (which doesn't yet include today's Ipsos,) and simply tot up the 22 polls shown for the period since the start of August, you get the following mean values:
Con 40%
Lab 29%
LD 8%
Ukip 12%
Or you could read that as Con 43%, Lab 26% if you remain to be convinced that the pollsters have properly corrected their anti-Tory bias...
There is no way that Labour are that high with Corbyn in charge.
Is Corbyn actually being fairly astute over Brexit? He has very little in common with Hoey politically, but by supporting a prominent Labour Leaver, he may well be on the way to ideas to recapture the WWC Leave vote for the Left (which I think has been his longstanding view).
A hard Brexit with defensive tariffs, import substitution and government interference in industry is just his cup of tea.
I'm not tempted.
Still true. May reigns supreme in the absence of a viable offer from anyone else. And at the end of the day she feels like "one of us" to large swathes of Tory Britain in a way we haven't seen for a generation.
But if Brexit and/or economy falter, she'll have issues, and as the PM polling shows she is not loved.
Good to see UKIP down too.
On committee chairs the "right" decisions seem to have been made. It feels like parliament is at the centre of our politics again which is very very healthy.
- 1.4 million people more for Leave
- Massive turnout
- Remain had almost every conceivable advantage
Mr. Taffys, if Carney cuts rates, with inflation rising and the pound falling, it'd back up your claim.
The deputy doughnut (I forget her name) who advocated low rates for years to come seems equally bonkers.
The point was that people like Jeremy Hunt, who said we wouldn't do it until 2020, were moved out of the picture. Mays mistake was to commit to triggering article 50. She got bounced in to it by the leavers that were surrounding her and the prospect of needing to be elected by the tory grassroots. I'm pretty convinced that had Leadsom not stepped down, she had a good chance of winning a vote in the grassroots.
Like others I remain bemused that in such a bipolar world there still seems to be so little room for the Lib Dems.
Nadal/Federer in the 2008 Wimbledon Championship.
6–4, 6–4, 6–7(5–7), 6–7(8–10), 9–7
That was a close match.
One of them was the champion afterwards, and one wasn't.
https://twitter.com/iandunt/status/788749921587490816