politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Smith backer, Don Brind is amused to find himself on the same

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

JosiasJessop said:

Jobabob said:

JosiasJessop said:

SandyRentool said:

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Kids don't half look old these days....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3843900/First-migrant-children-arrive-UK-Calais-French-prepare-raze-Jungle-camp-ground.html

FFS. Some of them are clearly in their 20s. Even early 30s.

I inagine most Brits had an image of vulnerable 8 year olds. I know I did.

At least they've all had a shave so they look a bit younger.

BTW, Am I the only PBer who has never seen any of the Godfather films?

I haven't either. And I have no intention of watching them either.

You are missing out. I resisted them for years, expecting like most fanboy cult films they would be hugely disappointing in the flesh. They weren't. They are beautifully made pictures, underpinned by brilliant character development and wonderful storytelling.

See also Once Upon a Time in America.

Okay, I might just do that when I get enough time without the little 'un (I'm currently having to watch episode after episode of Mr Tumble, which is surely a severe punishment).

Believe it or not, when your kids get to 10 years old, like mine, you will start to look back at Mr Tumble quite fondly. And wistfully.

You mean it gets worse? (shudder)

A few years back, before the little 'un came along, I met a female friend who seemed really happy. She said she had just had the first day without watching any CBeebies in seven years, as her youngest son had just migrated on to CBBC.

I now know how she feels.

Still, as an antidote for all the TV I took him to the library for an hour this morning, picked a random book, and read him some.

No, you will look back fondly and wistfully because that was when your kids were still adorable and young - and you were also younger. The best years are about 4-9.... When they are entirely without self-awareness, but also inquiring and curious and eager.

From 10 on the first hints of teenagerness kick in. But they're still great, of course.

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

And to think I was opposed to having cameras in our courts

https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/788046417050890240

Surely that's the old fashioned meaning of "video link", as in there's a room next door with a TV and more seats as an overflow for the expected attendance?

As opposed to a live TV broadcast or live stream for general consumption.

Chris said:

Speedy said:

Time for the weekly update of the average daily tracking polls:

Hillary 47 nc
Trump 42 nc

Those tracking polls are a bit different from the 538 averages, which (with changes from a week ago) are currently:

Clinton: 49.7% (+0.6)
Trump: 42.7% (-0.5)

That 7 point lead for Clinton appears to be the biggest since late August.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JosiasJessop said:

Then again, my favourite film is probably Highlander, so I probably don't have *any* taste.

Coud be worse - could be Highlander II

JackW said:

North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

Trump to win Ohio 3/1 at WH still I think.

JackW said:

Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Llama, posted this yesterday but had to leave shortly thereafter and didn't see if you saw: did you ever get that e-mail I sent you? I seem to recall you did but upon searching can't see it.

SouthamObserver said:

SeanT said:

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

taffys said:

Why does the "caring" liberal left do this shit? What's wrong with them?

Left Liberal caring has to be visible.

Millions of carers look after relatives behind closed doors. They never get helped because nobody is there to see it.

I am intrigued that it is the liberal left's fault the Conservative government has allowed some refugees who appear not to be children into the country.

I imagine that this action is the product of the Dubs Amendment, and wishing to give a diplomatic sop to the French. Though FWIW, I don't think it's the Tunbridge Wells Conservative Association that's been bellowing at HM Government to let the entire lot in for years and years and years...

The Labour party is utterly enfeebled and 15% behind in the polls. It can't force the government to do anything it doesn't want to do.

Point conceded. Have been trying to get my head around what the Government thinks it is playing at to be honest, with all these pictures of suspiciously mature-looking "boys" appearing all over the media. Where are all the children? Where are all the girls?

Am I the only one who's thinking this may be aimed at trying deliberately to increase public scepticism about immigration and asylum?

Or the Daily Mail? There may be a fair few photos that weren't taken that could have been.

Nope. The photos are from Getty and they are also in the Metro and elsewhere.

It's mind-boggling.

Fair enough. Some of them do look a touch over 16, to say the least.

Philip_Thompson said:

Speedy said:

foxinsoxuk said:

JackW said:

North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

Trump to win Ohio 3/1 at WH still I think.

Trump to win Ohio and Iowa.

With those numbers I wonder about Florida, if NC is heading to a tie Florida should be heading for a tie as well.

As I said many times Hillary's lead is not that large, she is only leading by 4-5% in the swing states that Trump needs to win to get to 270.

Unless the polls are badly flawed 4-5% ought to be enough.

Especially with the evidence we have regarding early voting and ground game differentials.

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

IanB2 said:

Whatever Mr Brind is predicting, I guess we should anticipate the opposite happening?

I think Don Brind has shook the confidence of PB upon him, thanks to his biased Owen Smith push in the summer.

It was wishful thinking half dressed as a betting tip.

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

Not with those Nevada numbers.

JackW said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

Not with those Nevada numbers.

You place too much emphasis on a single poll.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/788062298627768320

Pulpstar said:

Speedy said:

IanB2 said:

Whatever Mr Brind is predicting, I guess we should anticipate the opposite happening?

I think Don Brind has shook the confidence of PB upon him, thanks to his biased Owen Smith push in the summer.

It was wishful thinking half dressed as a betting tip.

JackW said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

Not with those Nevada numbers.

You place too much emphasis on a single poll.

tyson said:

619 said:

Clinton going for Arizona

Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.

I have to say, that Michelle Obama is bloody amazing. Fancy having her in your back drawer if you need it. Even Plato's endless, obsessional trawling of the murky internet would struggle to come up with anything about the first Lady.

Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill. One of the positive features of US democracy is the bi partisan esteem they have always held for their ex-presidents personally. Even Nixon was rehabilitated. Trump has completely demolished that etiquette sadly.

Anyway, it'll all be finished soon , and Plato will have to identify some other cause to champion. Maybe saving badgers.....one can only hope.

David_Evershed said:

Woolfe quits before he is kicked out - literally

Mortimer said:

I like the ambition.

Far far better long term strategy that Osborne's - which relied on, err....people remembering Labour were bad at managing money?

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Speedy said:

JackW said:

Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

Not with those Nevada numbers.

You place too much emphasis on a single poll.

It's not a single poll though, all Nevada polls post debate have it as a 2-6% lead for Hillary.
Those Nevada polls don't inspire much confidence that Arizona is going to vote Hillary.

taffys said:

''Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill.''

Oh come on mate, come on. That cuts both ways. The dems have thrown a mountain of sex sleaze Trump's way, they shouldn;t be surprised when it comes back in spades.

TGOHF said:

Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

TGOHF said:

Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

nunu said:

619 said:

NEW Monmouth national poll, likely voters:

Clinton 50%
Trump 38%
Johnson 5%

Analysis: Weeeelllllpppp

I don't believe she can be so close in swing states and have a 12% lead.

taffys said:

''Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill.''

Oh come on mate, come on. That cuts both ways. The dems have thrown a mountain of sex sleaze Trump's way, they shouldn;t be surprised when it comes back in spades.

JackW said:

nunu said:

619 said:

NEW Monmouth national poll, likely voters:

Clinton 50%
Trump 38%
Johnson 5%

Analysis: Weeeelllllpppp

I don't believe she can be so close in swing states and have a 12% lead.

Monmouth is an outlier but the ORC/CNN 538 adjusted in more in line - Nevada C+4 .. North Carolina C+3 .. Trump OH +2

Presently Clinton is +6/7 with a large EC lead. Obama in 12 led by less than 1% 3 weeks out.

Ishmael_X said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.

Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the intere#
sting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

After the red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then.

(pedant mode off)

You assume an earth-bound future for humanity. Con gain Proxima b.

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.

Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun.

(pedant mode off)

The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.

JosiasJessop said:

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.

Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun.

(pedant mode off)

The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.

We need to start sending out our trade delegations probes now.

JosiasJessop said:

We need to start sending out our trade delegations probes now.

JosiasJessop said:

Whilst we are on science, are there any alternate realities where Corbyn becomes PM?

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.

Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun.

(pedant mode off)

The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.

If the sun has expanded sufficiently to absorb the earth such a policy would be as obvious and as rational as Brexit was!

DavidL said:

IanB2 said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

@bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.

Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun.

(pedant mode off)

The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.

If the sun has expanded sufficiently to absorb the earth such a policy would be as obvious and as rational as Brexit was!

tyson said:

619 said:

Clinton going for Arizona

Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.

I have to say, that Michelle Obama is bloody amazing. Fancy having her in your back drawer if you need it. Even Plato's endless, obsessional trawling of the murky internet would struggle to come up with anything about the first Lady.

Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill. One of the positive features of US democracy is the bi partisan esteem they have always held for their ex-presidents personally. Even Nixon was rehabilitated. Trump has completely demolished that etiquette sadly.

Anyway, it'll all be finished soon , and Plato will have to identify some other cause to champion. Maybe saving badgers.....one can only hope.

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

TGOHF said:

Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!

Feel slightly sorry for Carswell. He's a good smart man. An asset to any party. He's stuck inside a burning house.

IanB2 said:

Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics