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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Jobabob said:

    Speedy said:

    Time for the weekly update of the average daily tracking polls:

    Hillary 47 nc
    Trump 42 nc

    Trump has been rising everyday since Oct.11th today is his best since Oct.5th, Hillary has been stable at or just bellow 47% since Sept. 26th.

    In fact with the exception of the Aug.25th-Sept.25th period Hillary has been at 47% since the Conventions, remarkably stable.
    While Trump's rollercoaster goes up and down wildly.

    All the weekly updates since the first one just after the conventions:

    Hillary 47 47 46.5 46.5 45.5 44.5 45 46 46.5 47 47 45
    Trump 42 42 43.5 43 44 43.5 42 42 41 40.5 41 43

    Hardly a rollercoaster for Trump. In fact both candidates look fairly locked in at a ~4pt race (on those figures)
    Oh it is a rollercoaster compared to Hillary.

    Hillary rarely records any shifts larger than 0.2% in any given day.
    Trump rarely records shifts less than 0.2% in any given day.

    Or to put it in a longer view.
    Trump had one movement down from 44.5 to 40.5, then one up to 42.5, then another one to 44.5, then one down to 43, then a small one up to 43.5, down to 41.5 and up to 42.5.

    Hillary had one movement up from 45 to 47, one from 47 to 44.5 and then from 44.5 to 47.

    Trump's support is twice as unstable as Hillary's, and prone to go up and down like a yo-yo.
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    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS. Some of them are clearly in their 20s. Even early 30s.

    I inagine most Brits had an image of vulnerable 8 year olds. I know I did.
    At least they've all had a shave so they look a bit younger.

    BTW, Am I the only PBer who has never seen any of the Godfather films?
    I haven't either. And I have no intention of watching them either.
    You are missing out. I resisted them for years, expecting like most fanboy cult films they would be hugely disappointing in the flesh. They weren't. They are beautifully made pictures, underpinned by brilliant character development and wonderful storytelling.

    See also Once Upon a Time in America.
    Okay, I might just do that when I get enough time without the little 'un (I'm currently having to watch episode after episode of Mr Tumble, which is surely a severe punishment).
    Believe it or not, when your kids get to 10 years old, like mine, you will start to look back at Mr Tumble quite fondly. And wistfully.
    You mean it gets worse? (shudder)

    A few years back, before the little 'un came along, I met a female friend who seemed really happy. She said she had just had the first day without watching any CBeebies in seven years, as her youngest son had just migrated on to CBBC.

    I now know how she feels.

    Still, as an antidote for all the TV I took him to the library for an hour this morning, picked a random book, and read him some.
    No, you will look back fondly and wistfully because that was when your kids were still adorable and young - and you were also younger. The best years are about 4-9.... When they are entirely without self-awareness, but also inquiring and curious and eager.

    From 10 on the first hints of teenagerness kick in. But they're still great, of course.
    My youngest is now at college, with the 2 eldest both at Uni. The Mrs and me had our first child free holiday abroad this year in nearly 20 years. We didn't know what to do with all the free time.
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    TGOHF said:

    Alistair said:

    tyson said:

    619 said:

    Clinton going for Arizona

    Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.


    I have to say, that Michelle Obama is bloody amazing. Fancy having her in your back drawer if you need it. Even Plato's endless, obsessional trawling of the murky internet would struggle to come up with anything about the first Lady.
    There is some awful made up shit on the right wing conspiracy sites about her.
    No doubt in the great American Democratic party meritocracy she will be the candidate in 8 years time.
    Well in America 8 years seems the appropriate gap.

    8 years between the Bushes

    24 years between the Adams
    24 years for the Clintons (or is it 20?)
    Assuming Hillary wins, it will be sixteen years, I'm taking the end of Bill's Presidency to the beginning of Hillary's
    Fairy Nuf
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Alistair, who do you think will win Utah?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    Sandpit said:

    And to think I was opposed to having cameras in our courts

    https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/788046417050890240

    Surely that's the old fashioned meaning of "video link", as in there's a room next door with a TV and more seats as an overflow for the expected attendance?

    As opposed to a live TV broadcast or live stream for general consumption.
    Transcripts are available via the Judiciary website:

    https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/publications/santos-and-m-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union-transcripts/
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Sandpit said:

    nunu said:

    Johnson collapse to Mcmullin.

    Politics1.com – ‏@Politics1com

    P2016 UT (Rasmussen): Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%

    Wow, a proper 3-way marginal. Anyone know when was the last time a third party actually won a State?
    1968 George Wallace (5 states I think)
    In those days, the South was a Democratic bastion. Thus handing the presidency to Nixon. Then Nixon trounced McGovern in 1972. Carter and Clinton did get the South back because they were from the South.

    The racists moved to the Republicans.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    Chris said:

    Speedy said:

    Time for the weekly update of the average daily tracking polls:

    Hillary 47 nc
    Trump 42 nc

    Those tracking polls are a bit different from the 538 averages, which (with changes from a week ago) are currently:

    Clinton: 49.7% (+0.6)
    Trump: 42.7% (-0.5)

    That 7 point lead for Clinton appears to be the biggest since late August.
    Mine should lead the RCP average by a few days(after all I used the RCP average in July as a reference point), it has no connection to the 538 one.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
    NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Then again, my favourite film is probably Highlander, so I probably don't have *any* taste. :)

    Coud be worse - could be Highlander II :lol::lol:
    Avast, Cap'n Doc! You probably missed it but someone earlier on made reference to a post on a Wiki web site about London airports. Said post made by someone called Sunil Prasannan in 2006. You can run but you cannot hide.

    Belike, Else
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    IanB2 said:

    Whatever Mr Brind is predicting, I guess we should anticipate the opposite happening?

    I think Don Brind has shook the confidence of PB upon him, thanks to his biased Owen Smith push in the summer.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
    NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

    It suggests a Hillary lead of about 3-5 points nationally.
    So my average daily tracker is right again.

    What was the sentence, oh yes:

    Kneel Before Zod ect ect.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941

    Sandpit said:

    And to think I was opposed to having cameras in our courts

    https://twitter.com/JudiciaryUK/status/788046417050890240

    Surely that's the old fashioned meaning of "video link", as in there's a room next door with a TV and more seats as an overflow for the expected attendance?

    As opposed to a live TV broadcast or live stream for general consumption.
    Transcripts are available via the Judiciary website:

    https://www.judiciary.gov.uk/publications/santos-and-m-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-european-union-transcripts/
    Ooh, thanks for the link :)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Mr. Llama, posted this yesterday but had to leave shortly thereafter and didn't see if you saw: did you ever get that e-mail I sent you? I seem to recall you did but upon searching can't see it.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
    NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

    Trump to win Ohio 3/1 at WH still I think.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884
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    Then again, my favourite film is probably Highlander, so I probably don't have *any* taste. :)

    Coud be worse - could be Highlander II :lol::lol:
    Avast, Cap'n Doc! You probably missed it but someone earlier on made reference to a post on a Wiki web site about London airports. Said post made by someone called Sunil Prasannan in 2006. You can run but you cannot hide.

    Belike, Else
    Was it the previous thread, Mr Llama?

    I think it might have been about Maplin Sands and the aborted M13 motorway - belike!
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    JackW said:

    North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
    NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

    Trump to win Ohio 3/1 at WH still I think.
    Trump to win Ohio and Iowa.

    With those numbers I wonder about Florida, if NC is heading to a tie Florida should be heading for a tie as well.

    As I said many times Hillary's lead is not that large, she is only leading by 4-5% in the swing states that Trump needs to win to get to 270.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Chris said:


    Michigan is usually classed as a "swing state". But with a 14 point lead for Clinton ... ?

    4% margin of error on that one. I don't think anyone would bat an eyelid at a +10 poll though, it's clearly not a competitive state this time round.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
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    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
    NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

    Trump to win Ohio 3/1 at WH still I think.
    Trump to win Ohio and Iowa.

    With those numbers I wonder about Florida, if NC is heading to a tie Florida should be heading for a tie as well.

    As I said many times Hillary's lead is not that large, she is only leading by 4-5% in the swing states that Trump needs to win to get to 270.
    Unless the polls are badly flawed 4-5% ought to be enough.

    Especially with the evidence we have regarding early voting and ground game differentials.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited October 2016

    Mr. Llama, posted this yesterday but had to leave shortly thereafter and didn't see if you saw: did you ever get that e-mail I sent you? I seem to recall you did but upon searching can't see it.

    Yes I did see it, Mr. Dancer, and I thought I had replied. However, quite often these days I think I have done something but haven't (or at least that is what Herself says). Picture number 3 was my bet: more drama, darker, more enticing and had the title at the top not the author's name.

    P.S. I have also got those books to send to you, when herself lets me have the car for an hour
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Whatever Mr Brind is predicting, I guess we should anticipate the opposite happening?

    I think Don Brind has shook the confidence of PB upon him, thanks to his biased Owen Smith push in the summer.
    It was wishful thinking half dressed as a betting tip.
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    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    Why does the "caring" liberal left do this shit? What's wrong with them?

    Left Liberal caring has to be visible.

    Millions of carers look after relatives behind closed doors. They never get helped because nobody is there to see it.

    I am intrigued that it is the liberal left's fault the Conservative government has allowed some refugees who appear not to be children into the country.

    I imagine that this action is the product of the Dubs Amendment, and wishing to give a diplomatic sop to the French. Though FWIW, I don't think it's the Tunbridge Wells Conservative Association that's been bellowing at HM Government to let the entire lot in for years and years and years...

    The Labour party is utterly enfeebled and 15% behind in the polls. It can't force the government to do anything it doesn't want to do.

    Point conceded. Have been trying to get my head around what the Government thinks it is playing at to be honest, with all these pictures of suspiciously mature-looking "boys" appearing all over the media. Where are all the children? Where are all the girls?

    Am I the only one who's thinking this may be aimed at trying deliberately to increase public scepticism about immigration and asylum?

    Or the Daily Mail? There may be a fair few photos that weren't taken that could have been.

    Nope. The photos are from Getty and they are also in the Metro and elsewhere.

    It's mind-boggling.

    Fair enough. Some of them do look a touch over 16, to say the least.

    Cant you verify age with a DNA test?
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited October 2016

    SeanT said:

    Jobabob said:

    SeanT said:

    FFS. Some of them are clearly in their 20s. Even early 30s.

    I inagine most Brits had an image of vulnerable 8 year olds. I know I did.
    At least they've all had a shave so they look a bit younger.

    BTW, Am I the only PBer who has never seen any of the Godfather films?
    I haven't either. And I have no intention of watching them either.
    You are missing out. I resisted them for years, expecting like most fanboy cult films they would be hugely disappointing in the flesh. They weren't. They are beautifully made pictures, underpinned by brilliant character development and wonderful storytelling.

    See also Once Upon a Time in America.
    Okay, I might just do that when I get enough time without the little 'un (I'm currently having to watch episode after episode of Mr Tumble, which is surely a severe punishment).
    Believe it or not, when your kids get to 10 years old, like mine, you will start to look back at Mr Tumble quite fondly. And wistfully.
    I quite liked the Thomas the Tank Engine series narrated by Ringo Star as did my son. Mind you he did not get Ivor the Engine or Captain Pugwash.
    Thomas The Tank Engine you say....who can forget this classic piece.

    Classism, sexism, anti-environmentalism bordering on racism:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/22/thomas-the-tank-engine-children-parents
    You iz only saying that coz I is a Diesel. Innit.

    If we are not careful right wing loons will be using Steam and Diese as codewordsl instead of Google and Yahoo.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    North Carolina .. Nevada .. Ohio - ORC/CNN

    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47
    NV - Clinton 46 .. Trump 44
    OH - Clinton 44 .. Trump 48

    http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/10/poll-trump-clinton-battleground-states-229890

    Trump to win Ohio 3/1 at WH still I think.
    Trump to win Ohio and Iowa.

    With those numbers I wonder about Florida, if NC is heading to a tie Florida should be heading for a tie as well.

    As I said many times Hillary's lead is not that large, she is only leading by 4-5% in the swing states that Trump needs to win to get to 270.
    Unless the polls are badly flawed 4-5% ought to be enough.

    Especially with the evidence we have regarding early voting and ground game differentials.
    Well we have seen plenty of 4-5% shifts in this race in the past.

    Still it goes back to the same 4 old states, Colorado, Pennsylvania, N.Hampshire and Wisconsin, Trump needs to win one of them.

    If Trump wins Iowa (check), Ohio (check), Nevada, N.Carolina and Florida.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Then again, my favourite film is probably Highlander, so I probably don't have *any* taste. :)

    Coud be worse - could be Highlander II :lol::lol:
    Avast, Cap'n Doc! You probably missed it but someone earlier on made reference to a post on a Wiki web site about London airports. Said post made by someone called Sunil Prasannan in 2006. You can run but you cannot hide.

    Belike, Else
    Was it the previous thread, Mr Llama?

    I think it might have been about Maplin Sands and the aborted M13 motorway - belike!
    It was indeed, Cap'n Doc. No big deal. I just thought it was amusing that something said ten years ago is still kicking around on the internet.

    Else
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Whatever Mr Brind is predicting, I guess we should anticipate the opposite happening?

    I think Don Brind has shook the confidence of PB upon him, thanks to his biased Owen Smith push in the summer.
    It was wishful thinking half dressed as a betting tip.
    wishful thinking dishonest spin
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    You place too much emphasis on a single poll.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6
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    Then again, my favourite film is probably Highlander, so I probably don't have *any* taste. :)

    Coud be worse - could be Highlander II :lol::lol:
    Avast, Cap'n Doc! You probably missed it but someone earlier on made reference to a post on a Wiki web site about London airports. Said post made by someone called Sunil Prasannan in 2006. You can run but you cannot hide.

    Belike, Else
    Was it the previous thread, Mr Llama?

    I think it might have been about Maplin Sands and the aborted M13 motorway - belike!
    It was indeed, Cap'n Doc. No big deal. I just thought it was amusing that something said ten years ago is still kicking around on the internet.

    Else
    Even more elusive and mysterious were the M15 and M16
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    When we look back we'll wonder how we ever thought Arizona was going to turn blue, or that Nevada was ever in play for Trump.

    One of the two. Which is the million dollar question.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    IanB2 said:

    Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics

    I like the ambition.

    Far far better long term strategy that Osborne's - which relied on, err....people remembering Labour were bad at managing money?

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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,010
    Cheers, Mr. Llama. Alas that your bookshelves are not larger.

    Anyway, I've got to go do some work.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    You place too much emphasis on a single poll.
    It's not a single poll though, all Nevada polls post debate have it as a 2-6% lead for Hillary.
    Those Nevada polls don't inspire much confidence that Arizona is going to vote Hillary.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    Wants to be UKIP leader. Messes up his paperwork. Gets ready to defect to the Tories now he can't be leader. Chance to be leader comes up again! Scraps defection plan. Gets called out on all this by a colleague and takes him outside for a punch up. Ends up in hospital. Still wants to be UKIP leader. Realises the punch up has ruined his chances. Resurrects defection plan!

    What a loser?
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    NEW Monmouth national poll, likely voters:

    Clinton 50%
    Trump 38%
    Johnson 5%

    Analysis: Weeeelllllpppp
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    619619 Posts: 1,784
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    You place too much emphasis on a single poll.
    It's not a single poll though, all Nevada polls post debate have it as a 2-6% lead for Hillary.
    Those Nevada polls don't inspire much confidence that Arizona is going to vote Hillary.
    last time the DEMS outperformed their nevada polls because difficulties in polling spanish speaking hispanics. I imagine the same will happen this time
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    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,470
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    Might explain Diane James’ early departure. – But who will now replace Wolfe as favourite?
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    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Whatever Mr Brind is predicting, I guess we should anticipate the opposite happening?

    I think Don Brind has shook the confidence of PB upon him, thanks to his biased Owen Smith push in the summer.
    It was wishful thinking half dressed as a betting tip.
    This site could be called "Wishful Thinking Disguised as a Betting Tip"
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    Might explain Diane James’ early departure. – But who will now replace Wolfe as favourite?
    Paul Nutall ?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    You place too much emphasis on a single poll.
    He's clearly doing much better in swing states tho, working class white men are not budging.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2016
    Scott_P said:
    He is going straight to the Tories by tomorrow morning.
    The Diane James resignation simply delayed the inevitable.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    tyson said:

    619 said:

    Clinton going for Arizona

    Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.


    I have to say, that Michelle Obama is bloody amazing. Fancy having her in your back drawer if you need it. Even Plato's endless, obsessional trawling of the murky internet would struggle to come up with anything about the first Lady.

    Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill. One of the positive features of US democracy is the bi partisan esteem they have always held for their ex-presidents personally. Even Nixon was rehabilitated. Trump has completely demolished that etiquette sadly.

    Anyway, it'll all be finished soon , and Plato will have to identify some other cause to champion. Maybe saving badgers.....one can only hope.
    In fairness to Donald Trump (words I never thought I would write) we have never had the spouse of a former President running before. And Bill is hardly above politics. He is understandably campaigning hard for his wife.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    Might explain Diane James’ early departure. – But who will now replace Wolfe as favourite?
    Farage of course..
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    Woolfe quits before he is kicked out - literally :)

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics

    I like the ambition.

    Far far better long term strategy that Osborne's - which relied on, err....people remembering Labour were bad at managing money?

    Indeed. Yet another problem for Labour.

    If the LibDems can capture the younger more educated Remainer-voters then British politics will have been turned upside down.
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    Steven Woolfe quitting UKIP when just a few days ago he was favourite to be next leader?

    Well, well. That was easy money.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    edited October 2016

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    Might explain Diane James’ early departure. – But who will now replace Wolfe as favourite?
    Farage to 'reluctantly' stay on to hold the govt to account through the Leave process?
    Edit. Damn you @TGOHF, beat me to it.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237

    Woolfe quits before he is kicked out - literally :)

    UKIP and the Tories seem to be a revolving door atm, but then we always knew that.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited October 2016
    MEP Steven Woolfe quits UKIP

    To misquote Mrs Merton, what was it about being hospitalized after an altercation with a member of your own party led to you quitting UKIP.....
  • Options
    Mortimer said:

    I like the ambition.

    Far far better long term strategy that Osborne's - which relied on, err....people remembering Labour were bad at managing money?

    It's a continuation of Osborne's strategy, updated for the death of UKIP. The idea of the 'northern powerhouse' can now be extended.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill.''

    Oh come on mate, come on. That cuts both ways. The dems have thrown a mountain of sex sleaze Trump's way, they shouldn;t be surprised when it comes back in spades.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    You place too much emphasis on a single poll.
    It's not a single poll though, all Nevada polls post debate have it as a 2-6% lead for Hillary.
    Those Nevada polls don't inspire much confidence that Arizona is going to vote Hillary.
    ORC/CNN are 538 adjusted Clinton +2.

    Further historically Nevada underpolls on POTUS. The last Arizona poll was Clinton +1. You also do waste waste resources on a lost cause.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    Might explain Diane James’ early departure. – But who will now replace Wolfe as favourite?
    Paul Nutall ?
    Nut All is a good name to have as UKIP's leader.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    taffys said:

    ''Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill.''

    Oh come on mate, come on. That cuts both ways. The dems have thrown a mountain of sex sleaze Trump's way, they shouldn;t be surprised when it comes back in spades.

    I think the point is he should be attacking HRC not Bill.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics

    I like the ambition.

    Far far better long term strategy that Osborne's - which relied on, err....people remembering Labour were bad at managing money?

    Indeed. Yet another problem for Labour.

    If the LibDems can capture the younger more educated Remainer-voters then British politics will have been turned upside down.
    If we could get back to having the Conservatives and Liberals then I would be delighted, but I'm not exactly convinced that the Lib Dems fit the bill for a credible new Opposition, to put it mildly.

    A Tory hegemony, followed by a Tory split, may be required to fill the vacuum properly.
  • Options
    EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    According to Guido, Suzanne Evans will be eligible to stand this time round. Does she have a chance? My feeling is whoever Farage favours will win, and it won't be her.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    619 said:

    NEW Monmouth national poll, likely voters:

    Clinton 50%
    Trump 38%
    Johnson 5%

    Analysis: Weeeelllllpppp

    I don't believe she can be so close in swing states and have a 12% lead.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    MEP Steven Woolfe quits UKIP

    To misquote Mrs Merton, what was it about being hospitalized after an altercation with a member of your own party led to you quitting UKIP.....

    Cameron was kind when he called them "fruitcakes,.... "
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    JackW said:

    Speedy said:

    JackW said:

    Gabriel Debenedetti of "Politco" looks at Clinton making a play for Arizona :

    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/clinton-campaign-arizona-strategy-229884

    Not with those Nevada numbers.
    You place too much emphasis on a single poll.
    He's clearly doing much better in swing states tho, working class white men are not budging.
    Trump is doing better in two swing states, than Romney at this stage, - Ohio and Iowa but significantly worse in others - Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Others have become swing states - Arizona, Georgia and Utah.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,470
    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    Game. Over.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''I think the point is he should be attacking HRC not Bill. ''

    He is attacking HRC. If you claim someone is a sex pest facilitator, you first have to establish that someone else is a sex pest.

    I find the love for Bill Clinton amongst the Hill-ettes astonishing.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    If anyone thinks it's closer than the polls suggest, Shadsy's got 7/2 on Clinton by less than 5% of the national vote.
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/786518996082241536
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    nunu said:

    619 said:

    NEW Monmouth national poll, likely voters:

    Clinton 50%
    Trump 38%
    Johnson 5%

    Analysis: Weeeelllllpppp

    I don't believe she can be so close in swing states and have a 12% lead.
    Monmouth is an outlier but the ORC/CNN 538 adjusted in more in line - Nevada C+4 .. North Carolina C+3 .. Trump OH +2

    Presently Clinton is +6/7 with a large EC lead. Obama in 12 led by less than 1% 3 weeks out.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    edited October 2016
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can we blame Brexit for the demise of UKIP ?
  • Options
    Yes, the end of UKIP has been on the cards for some time, but it's now it's starting to look like a reality. There were several contributing factors but the loss of their greatest weapon - David Cameron's premiership - finally did for it.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the intere#
    sting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    You assume an earth-bound future for humanity. Con gain Proxima b.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!
    Feel slightly sorry for Carswell. He's a good smart man. An asset to any party. He's stuck inside a burning house.
    Indeed, not many good men left in politics. Can't be long before the Tories take him back.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    taffys said:

    ''Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill.''

    Oh come on mate, come on. That cuts both ways. The dems have thrown a mountain of sex sleaze Trump's way, they shouldn;t be surprised when it comes back in spades.

    Bill isn't running for president.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    edited October 2016
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!
    Feel slightly sorry for Carswell. He's a good smart man. An asset to any party. He's stuck inside a burning house.
    Indeed, not many good men left in politics. Can't be long before the Tories take him back.
    The big question is whether or not Banks's £££ can create something meaningful come'e the Italian Cinque Stelle?
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,470
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!
    Feel slightly sorry for Carswell. He's a good smart man. An asset to any party. He's stuck inside a burning house.
    Indeed, not many good men left in politics. Can't be long before the Tories take him back.
    I doubt he will be welcomed back, he's a trouble maker.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    nunu said:

    619 said:

    NEW Monmouth national poll, likely voters:

    Clinton 50%
    Trump 38%
    Johnson 5%

    Analysis: Weeeelllllpppp

    I don't believe she can be so close in swing states and have a 12% lead.
    Monmouth is an outlier but the ORC/CNN 538 adjusted in more in line - Nevada C+4 .. North Carolina C+3 .. Trump OH +2

    Presently Clinton is +6/7 with a large EC lead. Obama in 12 led by less than 1% 3 weeks out.
    And, of course the RCP polling average brutally under shot the actual winning margin in the end.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!
    Feel slightly sorry for Carswell. He's a good smart man. An asset to any party. He's stuck inside a burning house.
    Indeed, not many good men left in politics. Can't be long before the Tories take him back.
    No - I think they Tories will regard him as more trouble than he's worth. I imagine he'll linger on in Clacton for a few more years though, as a kind of UKIP ghost MP.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    Ishmael_X said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the intere#
    sting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    You assume an earth-bound future for humanity. Con gain Proxima b.
    True enough. Or we might all go to live on Europa.

    If so, would we have a Golgafrincham B-ark?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    edited October 2016

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.
    We need to start sending out our trade delegations probes now.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    Whilst we are on science, are there any alternate realities where Corbyn becomes PM? :)
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.
    We need to start sending out our trade delegations probes now.
    The sooner we project Mr Fox into the stratosphere, the better
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Can we blame Brexit for the demise of UKIP ?

    Man bites dog.

    And Brexit bites wolf.
  • Options

    We need to start sending out our trade delegations probes now.

    Ah, you might have found a perfect solution to Mrs May's problem of cabinet squabbles...
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631
    TGOHF said:

    Can we blame Brexit for the demise of UKIP ?

    Yes.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444

    Whilst we are on science, are there any alternate realities where Corbyn becomes PM? :)

    If you believe the theoretical physicists, there are thousands of parallel universes where we are already all living in socialist paradise.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,392
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.
    If the sun has expanded sufficiently to absorb the earth such a policy would be as obvious and as rational as Brexit was!
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,072
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.
    If the sun has expanded sufficiently to absorb the earth such a policy would be as obvious and as rational as Brexit was!
    No chance.

    We'll probably still be debating Heathrow Runway 3 as the atmosphere boils away. There's no chance we'll have decided the colour of the rockets, yet alone where they'll launch from.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    NEW THREAD
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: Stephen Woolfe is quitting UKIP - tells @AlexForsythBBC, UKIP is in a 'death spiral' and is 'ungovernable' - her interview on @bbcnews at 6

    The Tories will now reign until 2086 and the heat death of the sun.
    Surely the Sun will expand into a red giant. Long before this, Earth will have been heated to a point where there will be no water. As the Sun expands, it might overtake Earth's orbit, subsuming us. The alternative is that Earth would be pushed out into a further orbit, but would just be a rocky hellhole.

    Interestingly (to me at least), the solar system's habitable zone will move outwards to the point where some of the interesting moons of Jupiter might be liveable.

    After the Sun's red giant phase there will be a nova and a planetary nebula will be formed. The remaining core would become a white dwarf, and then eventually, as it loses heat, it will become a black dwarf.

    Therefore the 'heat death' of the Sun will come billions of years after the death, or even destruction, of the Earth. I doubt the Conservative Party will survive until then. I don't expect even the Iron Lady could have resisted an expanding Sun. :)

    (pedant mode off)
    The Tories will simply vote that we leave the solar system. We don't need these other planets imposing their grand dreams on us and coming over here, taking all our jobs. Our future lies in a new trade deal with Alpha Centurii.
    If the sun has expanded sufficiently to absorb the earth such a policy would be as obvious and as rational as Brexit was!
    Except that Alpha C is a long way away and for some reason they aren't buying that many of our robot hoovering machines. Their wine is very good, however, even if we can only afford a single bottle at Christmas.
  • Options
    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    So the wolf is at UKIP's door.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    619 said:

    Clinton going for Arizona

    Michelle Obama will campaign for Hillary Clinton in Arizona soon, a top Democrat tells @jeffzeleny.


    I have to say, that Michelle Obama is bloody amazing. Fancy having her in your back drawer if you need it. Even Plato's endless, obsessional trawling of the murky internet would struggle to come up with anything about the first Lady.

    Another low point of the Trump campaign is the amount of negativity thrown against Bill. One of the positive features of US democracy is the bi partisan esteem they have always held for their ex-presidents personally. Even Nixon was rehabilitated. Trump has completely demolished that etiquette sadly.

    Anyway, it'll all be finished soon , and Plato will have to identify some other cause to champion. Maybe saving badgers.....one can only hope.
    She has some pretty extreme views (assuming she believes what she wrote in her Masters thesis )
  • Options
    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @IanB2


    'If the LibDems can capture the younger more educated Remainer-voters then British politics will have been turned upside down.'


    I would think it would take this group several years to forget the Lib Dem student fees betrayal.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,561
    SeanT said:

    Sandpit said:

    TGOHF said:

    Isabel Oakeshott ‏@IsabelOakeshott 15m15 minutes ago
    I understand UKIP is £800k in debt and on brink of financial collapse. Three big donors withdrawing. Party leadership? Who'd want it!

    No wonder they all went mad at Carswell for returning 300k of Short money!!
    Feel slightly sorry for Carswell. He's a good smart man. An asset to any party. He's stuck inside a burning house.
    I don't agree. He always seems thick as you like whenever I see him interviewed.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237

    IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics

    I like the ambition.

    Far far better long term strategy that Osborne's - which relied on, err....people remembering Labour were bad at managing money?

    Indeed. Yet another problem for Labour.

    If the LibDems can capture the younger more educated Remainer-voters then British politics will have been turned upside down.
    If we could get back to having the Conservatives and Liberals then I would be delighted, but I'm not exactly convinced that the Lib Dems fit the bill for a credible new Opposition, to put it mildly.

    A Tory hegemony, followed by a Tory split, may be required to fill the vacuum properly.
    Ah yes, a choice between Tories and Tories. I can't ******** wait.
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    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    IanB2 said:

    Well worth a read, about Theresa's long term political strategy. It puts last week's advertisement for paid Tory organisers in a string of northern cities into context.

    http://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/opinion/james-frayne-theresa-mays-grand-plan-realign-british-politics

    Interesting read. It looks like an attempt to do Blairism properly. Cameron did it sort of okay, but he really only succeeded in making confirmed Labour supporters less frightened of the Tories and so willing to take a punt on the Greens. Actually aiming for a sizeable currently pissed off demographic is much potentially profitable. It will be interesting to see how it goes.

    The grammar school idea was obviously one that comes out of this approach. I have a feeling that one will fall flat because while it has the virtue of making the Tories appear to be supporting the aspirations of working class kids it has the vice of actually doing the opposite. Even the Tories can't stand truth on its head forever. But there are plenty of other policies that would work better available.
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