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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May must be hoping that the Tories do better in Thursday’s

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Sean_F said:

    It's all the more strange in that I've also met people who speak very highly of her (including one very left wing woman who has no sympathy at all politically).
    I find this in business, particularly in large organisations: people love to gossip and telling selective anecdotes about those they don't particularly like, respect, or get on with, than paint them in a less than flattering light.

    Often such people will tell themselves stories as well: take a couple of facts, stitch them together into a story, and then suppose a motive of malice that fits their narrative.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    I very much like her politics. We had plenty of nanny-statism on sugar tax, social policy and heavy flirting with minimum alcohol pricing during the Cameron years.
    Ministers have watered down the UK’s long-awaited childhood obesity strategy, dropping proposed curbs on junk food television advertisements and focusing instead on the importance of school sport in moves seen as a victory for the food industry over health campaigners.

    https://www.ft.com/content/b945afac-6499-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227

    Now I happen to think we need to do more on childhood obesity (probably starting with parental education) but to criticise May for on one hand 'nanny statism' then on the other 'watering down guidelines' seems a bit confused....
  • The electorate like strong decisive leaders.
    Conservative MPs and civil servants will also have taken note not to step out of line.
    The Treasury civil servants seem deaf to the message.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited October 2016

    The more voters see of Mrs May, the more they break for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Alarming for Tories everywhere.

    I might do the morning thread on this.

    You cannot hide your leader during a general election campaign.
    This post must have required some mental gymnastics. Surely the effect could be entirely accounted for by him now being able to fill the majority of his cabinet & frontbench?
  • TMay's lead collapses from +39 to +34.....
    collapse ? It is a few % shifting. TSE is spinning for Osborne.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    edited October 2016
    Looking at the parliamentary numbers, I'd say Theresa May could count on between 310-320 MPs for the Great Repeal Bill. What will be crucial is how many MPs abstain, rather than actively voting against the Bill, and how Labour MPs will split.

    I expect some divisions on the opposition benches as they weigh up their own views on Brexit, and their views on the future of the Labour party and its leadership, possibly with some limited triangulation against what Corbyn is doing.

    In the House of Lords, I'd expect it to pass unless a very large chunk of crossbenchers decide to side with the Labour and Lib Dem Lords.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited October 2016
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    The more voters see of Mrs May, the more they break for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Alarming for Tories everywhere.
    That her 'Best PM' rating is more than double Corbyn's?

    I, for one, am quite calm.

    You posh public school boys need steadier nerves.....
  • That her 'Best PM' rating is more than double Corbyn's?

    I, for one, am quite calm.

    You posh public school boys need steadier nerves.....
    The trend is your friend, on current trajectory, he lead will be wiped out in less than a year.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    The Democrat-media complex carpet bombed Donald Trump with several alleged groping stories this week from several women.

    The media clearly did not fact check these stories. They ran the stories no matter how farfetched they were. It is clear from the number of stories dropped in the last week that this was a coordinated effort, probably from inside the Hillary Clinton campaign. The goal was not to present facts to the public. Their goal was to destroy Donald Trump.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/list-debunked-groper-allegations-corrupt-media-donald-trump/
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    collapse ? It is a few % shifting. TSE is spinning for Osborne.
    I thought I'd follow his lead.....if it drops 5 points every conference season it will be 2023 before Corbyn is ahead.....
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The more voters see of Mrs May, the more they break for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Alarming for Tories everywhere.

    I might do the morning thread on this.

    You cannot hide your leader during a general election campaign.
    LOL - of course TSE - the public prefer a Stalinist over a centrist.

    Strange, at work it's exactly the opposite.

    The more they seem to learn of what Labour is turning into , the more they leap in any other direction.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PlatoSaid said:

    "On Nov 8th the people will win...you'll never forget this day....we're going to beat this rigged election..."

    Trump

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2604643/

    Face it, he can't win fair and square so claims it's rigged. Sad! All the swing states have Republican governors so if it's rigged without challenge it's on them.
  • I thought I'd follow his lead.....if it drops 5 points every conference season it will be 2023 before Corbyn is ahead.....
    A general election campaign is like party conference season on steroids.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    The trend is your friend, on current trajectory, he lead will be wiped out in less than a year.
    Five points every conference season will take seven years.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    After Whitelaw retired.....
    After the 1987GE when she thought she was God's representative on earth.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,371

    collapse ? It is a few % shifting. TSE is spinning for Osborne.
    Osborne would be trailing Corbyn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    IanB2 said:

    The overy book i referenced this morning. "Why the Allies won". Highly recommended
    Interesting fact (no. 3): number of horses used to transport the army and its equipment in 1944: US/UK: zero. Germany: 1,250,000
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    Sean_F said:

    Osborne would be trailing Corbyn.
    67% of British people and 69% of Conservatives say it's unlikely George Osborne will ever be Prime Minister.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/03/22/public-approval-george-osborne/

    And this was before the 'Punishment Budget'.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127

    Ministers have watered down the UK’s long-awaited childhood obesity strategy, dropping proposed curbs on junk food television advertisements and focusing instead on the importance of school sport in moves seen as a victory for the food industry over health campaigners.

    https://www.ft.com/content/b945afac-6499-11e6-8310-ecf0bddad227

    Now I happen to think we need to do more on childhood obesity (probably starting with parental education) but to criticise May for on one hand 'nanny statism' then on the other 'watering down guidelines' seems a bit confused....
    It would be interesting to see a few chars on this: obesity rates over time, average calorie intake over time, and average activity per day over time.

    I'm not sure the story should be all about the food industry.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    collapse ? It is a few % shifting. TSE is spinning for Osborne.
    But TSE is very close to the Osborne camp, and offers fantastic insight into their way of thinking.

    Osborne is quite clearly on manoeuvres, positioning himself as a leader-in-waiting in case May falls, even if I think he is mistaken to do so, and would be unlikely to benefit if she did.

    It still makes the 200/1 on him being PM after the next GE with Skybet value, in my view.

    These odds are well out of kilter with the 14/1 on him being next Conservative leader, even if he would have to win a GE by himself to make it pay out.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    edited October 2016
    Hell Witney is boring compared to what's going over the pond. Come on pb let's have plenty of threads following this most salacious and vicious election of any of our lifetimes.

    And by heck be careful about writing off Trump just yet: http://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-calls-for-drug-test-before-next-presidential-debate-10618993

    I think he'll lose because he'll lose women but I'm far from convinced this is now a shoo-in.

    Under-estimate Trump at your peril.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fox
    Wikileaks emails - allegedly from John #Podesta's inbox. https://t.co/anf7hJZ3n3

    Media war
  • nunu said:

    Face it, he can't win fair and square so claims it's rigged. Sad! All the swing states have Republican governors so if it's rigged without challenge it's on them.

    Even my partner, who hates Trump, said she thought this was all looking a bit suspiciously conspiratorial. You've got to admit the sudden flood of allegations, timed to the point where he has no time to refute them, is a tad suspicious? That the media are generally totally opposed to Trump is beyond doubt.
  • Hell Witney is boring compared to what's going over the pond. Come on pb let's have plenty of threads following this most salacious and vicious election of any of our lifetimes.

    And by heck be careful about writing off Trump just yet: http://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-calls-for-drug-test-before-next-presidential-debate-10618993

    I think he'll lose because he'll lose women but I'm far from convinced this is now a shoo-in.

    Under-estimate Trump at your peril.

    Whatever drugs Trump is on, I don't want any !!!!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PlatoSaid said:

    The Democrat-media complex carpet bombed Donald Trump with several alleged groping stories this week from several women.

    The media clearly did not fact check these stories. They ran the stories no matter how farfetched they were. It is clear from the number of stories dropped in the last week that this was a coordinated effort, probably from inside the Hillary Clinton campaign. The goal was not to present facts to the public. Their goal was to destroy Donald Trump.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/list-debunked-groper-allegations-corrupt-media-donald-trump/

    Not that Donald Trump has ever discussed sexually assaulting women ....

    Oh wait ....
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    edited October 2016

    The more voters see of Mrs May, the more they break for Jeremy Corbyn.
    The most bonkers remark of my time on pb
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Interesting: "She said whether Britain would get access to the European single market depended on whether it accepted the EU's four freedoms, including the freedom of movement of people.

    "If Britain says no, it can't get full access to the European single market," she said."

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/britain-cant-full-single-market-access-free-movement-122452993.html

    My emphasis.

    That says to me that there may be partial access to the European single market for partial free movement, and budget payments.

    My gut instinct tells me that the line of negotiation here might look like free movement for high-skilled EU workers, with a job offer, plus £4-6 billion of EU budget payments a year in exchange for some services and financial services access, but not all.

    Well, that's what the member states might try to come to some agreement upon. Give or take.

    The EU institutions will try to push for hard Brexit, or no Brexit, in my view. And the whole thing could still collapse into a hard Brexit - but probably including free trade in goods, which sholdn't be a problem to agree - if there is no agreement by default.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,371

    It would be interesting to see a few chars on this: obesity rates over time, average calorie intake over time, and average activity per day over time.

    I'm not sure the story should be all about the food industry.
    My understanding is that on average, people consumed more calories 60-70 years ago, but with more people performing manual labour/walking to work or school, obesity wasn't a problem.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    edited October 2016

    Source please, Mr. B2.
    I can believe it. The amount of kit the Yanks made was insane.

    A relative of mine made a lot of money after the war buying surplus engines and using them in plant. In a similar manner, a company making plant compressors (sadly I can't recall the make (1)) started off using such surplus engines after the war.

    Now for a bit more recent history. Sometime after the first Gulf War, a ship arrived in Liverpool loaded with kit that had been sent down, not used, and returned. It was all sold off, after which the ship itself was auctioned.

    (1) Edit: I think it was Hydrovane.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,127
    Sean_F said:

    My understanding is that on average, people consumed more calories 60-70 years ago, but with more people performing manual labour/walking to work or school, obesity wasn't a problem.
    That's mine as well, but it would be good to see more than two datapoints.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Re: CCHQ, people tell me they are either insecure and power hungry or young and naive. Equates to useless.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Dixie said:

    Re: CCHQ, people tell me they are either insecure and power hungry or young and naive. Equates to useless.

    Still I assume Momentum and Jezza's bunch are probably the same.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    JackW said:

    Not that Donald Trump has ever discussed sexually assaulting women ....

    Oh wait ....
    How can Trump be guilty of sexual assault? For a start he is not even Mexican

    (Hat tip to the News Quiz)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    edited October 2016

    That's mine as well, but it would be good to see more than two datapoints.
    According to the sugar conspiracy theorists, people ate more fat and less carbohydrate 50 years ago, and therefore were skinnier.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sean_F said:

    My understanding is that on average, people consumed more calories 60-70 years ago, but with more people performing manual labour/walking to work or school, obesity wasn't a problem.
    Anecdotes can be misleading but based on the schools round here, there is no childhood obesity problem but many of the parents are confirmed salad-dodgers. If there is in fact a real problem among children then perhaps there are regional variations.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100

    Hell Witney is boring compared to what's going over the pond. Come on pb let's have plenty of threads following this most salacious and vicious election of any of our lifetimes.

    And by heck be careful about writing off Trump just yet: http://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-calls-for-drug-test-before-next-presidential-debate-10618993

    I think he'll lose because he'll lose women but I'm far from convinced this is now a shoo-in.

    Under-estimate Trump at your peril.

    As an aside, Batley & Spen had it been contested properly (which it should have been) would have been by far the more interesting by-election.

    Together, they both would, as it would offer the chance to gauge how politics had since shifted in Remainia and Leaverstan.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    James O'Keefe
    This incredible. Mayor @BilldeBlasio called for firing of NY Elections Commissioner we caught on tape. We're turning them against each other

    That's the Demo guy taped talking about vote fraud
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,371

    A general election campaign is like party conference season on steroids.
    May v Corbyn would be like Nixon v McGovern.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970

    But TSE is very close to the Osborne camp, and offers fantastic insight into their way of thinking.

    Osborne is quite clearly on manoeuvres, positioning himself as a leader-in-waiting in case May falls, even if I think he is mistaken to do so, and would be unlikely to benefit if she did.

    It still makes the 200/1 on him being PM after the next GE with Skybet value, in my view.

    These odds are well out of kilter with the 14/1 on him being next Conservative leader, even if he would have to win a GE by himself to make it pay out.
    Give TSE a bit of space to compose his letter to the good voters of Witney...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Not that Donald Trump has ever discussed sexually assaulting women ....

    Oh wait ....
    Thegatewaypundit being a site a sterling probity and firm moral convictions that would never, ever publish an easily verifiable lie about Hilary Clinton of course.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    It's most amusing

    Wikileaks

    Hillary Clinton: "I want to defend fracking." Climate change environmentalists should "Get a life," #PodestaEmails8 https://t.co/DFENUuO5Fr
  • PlatoSaid said:

    It's most amusing

    Wikileaks

    Hillary Clinton: "I want to defend fracking." Climate change environmentalists should "Get a life," #PodestaEmails8 https://t.co/DFENUuO5Fr

    Good old private vs public position.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,313
    .

    She did, and quite a lot of number 10 staff too, I posted about it here at the time.

    She's quite the callous person, she took away their heart passes, without giving them the opportunity to collect their personal belongings that night.

    Some were sacked without getting the opportunity to collect their mobiles, wallets, etc, which made getting back home that evening quite the challenge.

    These were people who had served the Tory party long before David Cameron became leader.

    As somebody put it to me at conference, Mrs May and her entourage seem to think the Tories won in 2015 in spite of David Cameron, not because of him.
    Speaking from a position of complete ignorance, although it seems a horrible thing to do, isn't it more likely that Mrs May was clearing out people who've been strongly committed to the EU all their careers?

    Getting a 180-deg turn-around in culture like that is far from easy.

    (And good evening, everyone)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    PlatoSaid said:

    It's most amusing

    Wikileaks

    Hillary Clinton: "I want to defend fracking." Climate change environmentalists should "Get a life," #PodestaEmails8 https://t.co/DFENUuO5Fr

    Isn't that rather different to what she's been saying in public, about the biggest challenge facing America being global warming?
  • "The guy switched from Tory to LibDem because of the Tory antipathy to the EU, which is precisely the pitch he is making to Witney voters."

    I don't think so. MacMillan Scott was expelled from the Conservative party in 2009 for trying to sabotage David Cameron's strategy to reform the EU - the creation of the "European Conservatives and Reformists" group (ECR) - by standing against the candidate the ECR, and his fellow Conservative MEPs, had agreed to support. He then joined the Lib/Dems in 2010.

    Even before his expulsion, and all the more so after it, he has consistently and publicly been extremely critical of David Cameron.

    So when he wrote this week to the electors of Witney that "the kind of compassionate Conservatism championed by David Cameron is being thrown away" as if he had been a supporter of their former MP when he was nothing of the kind, his letter looks to me like an attempt to trick supporters of his former party into voting for the one he has been a member of for the past six years under false pretences.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024


    Even my partner, who hates Trump, said she thought this was all looking a bit suspiciously conspiratorial. You've got to admit the sudden flood of allegations, timed to the point where he has no time to refute them, is a tad suspicious? That the media are generally totally opposed to Trump is beyond doubt.
    What about Fox news and plethora of right wing outlets ? They might be telling the truth or not we don't know but the women said the reason they came forward now was because of what they see is a lie by him during the second debate. I think we shouldn't just dismiss them just because they are coming out now. Oh and by the way there are many cases around sexual assault against Donlad and many media outlets have been reporting it for a long time but because the media are so dumbed down and sensationalist they didn't focus on it until the access Hollywood tape was released and he said the word Pussey. Yes the media have been doing us a diservice (I think twitter and 24 hour news are at fault) and we deserve much better but we can't dismiss it just because of the timing of it or because they are all coming out now. Remember the bill Crosby and jimmy saville stuff abuse victims often feel ashamed/stigmatised to speak out and when one speaks out others feel encouraged.

    There is also a pattern of behaviour with him that is just odd, and ofcouse that doesn't make him guilty but in the absence of have any time for a trial before the election voters have to decide if they trust him. Hmmm.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    It's most amusing

    Wikileaks

    Hillary Clinton: "I want to defend fracking." Climate change environmentalists should "Get a life," #PodestaEmails8 https://t.co/DFENUuO5Fr

    Your link just goes to the frontpage of politico. I went to wikileaks and searched for the phrase "I want to defend fracking" and got no hits. Do you have a link to the e-mail referenced?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,313

    That's mine as well, but it would be good to see more than two datapoints.
    Fewer cars.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Very belatedly on topic, I'm glad others posted their less than flattering remarks about Edward McMillan-Scott before I did.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    AnneJGP said:

    .

    Speaking from a position of complete ignorance, although it seems a horrible thing to do, isn't it more likely that Mrs May was clearing out people who've been strongly committed to the EU all their careers?

    Getting a 180-deg turn-around in culture like that is far from easy.

    (And good evening, everyone)
    That begs the question of whether Theresa May feels very strongly about the EU one way or the other. She said even less during the referendum than Jeremy Corbyn.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Comres poll in Sunday Mirror
    Con 40% : Lab 32% : UKIP 11% : LD 9% : SNP 5% : Grn 4%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lol, located it.

    Actual quote is "I want to defend fracking under the right circumstances."
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    justin124 said:

    Comres poll in Sunday Mirror
    Con 40% : Lab 32% : UKIP 11% : LD 9% : SNP 5% : Grn 4%

    Whopping Tory majority.
  • justin124 said:

    Comres poll in Sunday Mirror
    Con 40% : Lab 32% : UKIP 11% : LD 9% : SNP 5% : Grn 4%

    Com(edy) Res living up to their name...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    But more importantly, Ed Balls as a Hero on SCD
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Hell Witney is boring compared to what's going over the pond. Come on pb let's have plenty of threads following this most salacious and vicious election of any of our lifetimes.

    And by heck be careful about writing off Trump just yet: http://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-calls-for-drug-test-before-next-presidential-debate-10618993

    I think he'll lose because he'll lose women but I'm far from convinced this is now a shoo-in.

    Under-estimate Trump at your peril.

    Ridiculous to have a debate with the massive elephant in the room. Hillary should have separate debate.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Alistair said:

    Lol, located it.

    Actual quote is "I want to defend fracking under the right circumstances."

    Shocking stuff from Hillary. You are in circumstances, not under them.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Mortimer said:

    Whopping Tory majority.
    About 24.
  • justin124 said:

    Comres poll in Sunday Mirror
    Con 40% : Lab 32% : UKIP 11% : LD 9% : SNP 5% : Grn 4%

    I've told you before, IT'S NOT A VI.

    ComRes have said they aren't doing VI polls for the time being, what you are posting is voter ID, not voter intention.

    Please stop doing this. These figures generally overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Isn't that rather different to what she's been saying in public, about the biggest challenge facing America being global warming?
    The aprtial transcript of the Q&A is here

    https://www.wikileaks.org/podesta-emails//fileid/9617/2478
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,131
    edited October 2016

    I've told you before, IT'S NOT A VI.

    ComRes have said they aren't doing VI polls for the time being, what you are posting is voter ID, not voter intention.

    Please stop doing this. These figures generally overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories.
    Oh FFS....voodoo hoodoo...And posted by somebody who claims to be an expert...but then we all know about experts these days! ;-)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    I've told you before, IT'S NOT A VI.

    ComRes have said they aren't doing VI polls for the time being, what you are posting is voter ID, not voter intention.

    Please stop doing this. These figures generally overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories.
    TSE - nominated breaker of the smallest of Justin's straws.

    Needed to be said, though.

    Is there a particular reason ComRes are not doing VIs?
  • The more voters see of Mrs May, the more they break for Jeremy Corbyn.

    .
    Caw. I thought I came out with ott hyperbole sometimes

    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    edited October 2016
    Mortimer said:

    TSE - nominated breaker of the smallest of Justin's straws.

    Needed to be said, though.

    Is there a particular reason ComRes are not doing VIs?
    Because they got the EU referendum wrong, and they got the 2015 general election wrong*, they are engaging in a comprehensive methodology review, so no VI polls until that review has been completed.

    *Well they were the most accurate** pollster at the GE

    **Well least inaccurate pollster
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    That begs the question of whether Theresa May feels very strongly about the EU one way or the other. She said even less during the referendum than Jeremy Corbyn.
    I suspect that Mrs May's relative silence during the referendum campaign was good planning for the position in which she now finds herself. She's said nothing that can be held against her leading a government that will be dominated by the decision to leave the EU. She can be the neutral one banging heads together at the appropriate time!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited October 2016
    Wikileaks
    US media out of sync with audience demand. Interest in WikiLeaks (blue) vs Trump sex allegations https://t.co/ZQ8ezJIG1W


    Even my partner, who hates Trump, said she thought this was all looking a bit suspiciously conspiratorial. You've got to admit the sudden flood of allegations, timed to the point where he has no time to refute them, is a tad suspicious? That the media are generally totally opposed to Trump is beyond doubt.
    TBH, I find the PB almost total ignoring of this bizarre. It's weird lalaland stuff.

    I've seen stuff with 35k retweets in hours - it's huge. And the biggest cable news station Fox is covering all the ugly stuff whilst relative minnow CNN handwaves.

    I can only assume most PBers don't or aren't willing to get it. Strange but clearly true.

    I've only about 2.3k followers on Twitter and US ones are going berserk.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sandpit said:

    I suspect that Mrs May's relative silence during the referendum campaign was good planning for the position in which she now finds herself. She's said nothing that can be held against her leading a government that will be dominated by the decision to leave the EU. She can be the neutral one banging heads together at the appropriate time!
    Ironic that Mrs May eschewed the Eurosausage path to Number 10 and chose Major's dentist.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183

    Because they got the EU referendum wrong, and they got the 2015 general election wrong*, they are engaging in a comprehensive methodology review, so no VI polls until that review has been completed.

    *Well they were the most accurate** pollster at the GE

    **Well least inaccurate pollster
    Entirely reasonable - good of them to be honest about it too.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,183
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wikileaks
    US media out of sync with audience demand. Interest in WikiLeaks (blue) vs Trump sex allegations https://t.co/ZQ8ezJIG1W

    TBH, I find the PB almost total ignoring of this bizarre. It's weird lalaland stuff.

    I've seen stuff with 35k retweets in hours - it's huge. And the biggest cable news station Fox is covering all the ugly stuff whilst relative minnow CNN handwaves.

    I can only assume most PBers don't or aren't willing to get it. Strange but clearly true.

    I've only about 2.3k followers on Twitter and US ones are going berserk.
    To be honest I'm no fan of Clinton, but both sides yelled wolf so long ago that most Brits aren't listening anymore.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,002
    Wilde wrote a story called "The Sphinx Without a Secret".
    I am beginning to suspect that might quite well describe Theresa May...
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    TBH, I find the PB almost total ignoring of this bizarre. It's weird lalaland stuff.

    I've seen stuff with 35k retweets in hours - it's huge. And the biggest cable news station Fox is covering all the ugly stuff whilst relative minnow CNN handwaves.

    I can only assume most PBers don't or aren't willing to get it. Strange but clearly true.

    I've only about 2.3k followers on Twitter and US ones are going berserk.

    Hard for PB to ignore Wiki-Clinton with your assiduous posting not to mention that if twitter were the all encompassing political dynamic then Prime Minister Miliband would be sitting in 10 Downing Street.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    And if you didn't get it

    "WASHINGTON, D.C. — Hillary Clinton’s campaign made it perfectly clear that this entire election is a big battle over the Supreme Court and Obamacare, according to the Wikileaks’ dump of John Podesta’s emails.

    Hillary Clinton friend and informal adviser Neera Tanden wrote to campaign colleagues about “King v. Burwell,” the big case about whether or not Obamacare is constitutional, which progressives were concerned about.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/14/hillary-campaign-we-will-make-the-election-a-supreme-court-war-over-obamacare/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,970
    Mortimer said:

    But more importantly, Ed Balls as a Hero on SCD

    The spinning pudding.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wikileaks
    US media out of sync with audience demand. Interest in WikiLeaks (blue) vs Trump sex allegations https://t.co/ZQ8ezJIG1W

    TBH, I find the PB almost total ignoring of this bizarre. It's weird lalaland stuff.

    I've seen stuff with 35k retweets in hours - it's huge. And the biggest cable news station Fox is covering all the ugly stuff whilst relative minnow CNN handwaves.

    I can only assume most PBers don't or aren't willing to get it. Strange but clearly true.

    I've only about 2.3k followers on Twitter and US ones are going berserk.
    For those of us who don't want to go down a Breitbart wormhole, what are the key allegations/revelations from Wikileaks?

    I'm sorry Plato but in the sheer flood of links you post, I've never seen a smoking gun.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124
    PlatoSaid said:

    And if you didn't get it

    "WASHINGTON, D.C. — Hillary Clinton’s campaign made it perfectly clear that this entire election is a big battle over the Supreme Court and Obamacare, according to the Wikileaks’ dump of John Podesta’s emails.

    Hillary Clinton friend and informal adviser Neera Tanden wrote to campaign colleagues about “King v. Burwell,” the big case about whether or not Obamacare is constitutional, which progressives were concerned about.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/14/hillary-campaign-we-will-make-the-election-a-supreme-court-war-over-obamacare/

    See this is a good example.
    Who cares? Why is this allegedly scandalous or even interesting?
  • Yes.

    WTO MFN rules mean that selectively targeting a nation (or group) like that is illegal. We could unilaterally abolish all food tariffs (and I agree we should) but we would have to abolish tariffs for the EU too.
    No. If they have imposed tariffs on our produce we are within our rights to reciprocate.

    I am not advocating that we should. Just pointing out that it would not be against the WTO rules.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    And if you didn't get it

    "WASHINGTON, D.C. — Hillary Clinton’s campaign made it perfectly clear that this entire election is a big battle over the Supreme Court and Obamacare, according to the Wikileaks’ dump of John Podesta’s emails.

    Hillary Clinton friend and informal adviser Neera Tanden wrote to campaign colleagues about “King v. Burwell,” the big case about whether or not Obamacare is constitutional, which progressives were concerned about.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/14/hillary-campaign-we-will-make-the-election-a-supreme-court-war-over-obamacare/

    I'm sorry, but that's stating the fooking obvious.

    If Wikileaks had the emails from Trump/The RNC, they'd be saying the exact same thing.

    Winning the Presidency allows you to appoint Supreme Court justices to decide stuff like this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Just when we thought it had reached the peak, Trump challenges Clinton to a drugs test right before the next debate, says that she must have been on something last time!!
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/15/donald-trump-accuses-hillary-clinton-of-taking-drugs-before-deba/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,090

    No. If they have imposed tariffs on our produce we are within our rights to reciprocate.

    I am not advocating that we should. Just pointing out that it would not be against the WTO rules.
    It's a bit more complicated than that!

    I'm on my phone so don't have time to write a proper description of how the WTO takes and process work but will try to later.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,371

    "The guy switched from Tory to LibDem because of the Tory antipathy to the EU, which is precisely the pitch he is making to Witney voters."

    I don't think so. MacMillan Scott was expelled from the Conservative party in 2009 for trying to sabotage David Cameron's strategy to reform the EU - the creation of the "European Conservatives and Reformists" group (ECR) - by standing against the candidate the ECR, and his fellow Conservative MEPs, had agreed to support. He then joined the Lib/Dems in 2010.

    Even before his expulsion, and all the more so after it, he has consistently and publicly been extremely critical of David Cameron.

    So when he wrote this week to the electors of Witney that "the kind of compassionate Conservatism championed by David Cameron is being thrown away" as if he had been a supporter of their former MP when he was nothing of the kind, his letter looks to me like an attempt to trick supporters of his former party into voting for the one he has been a member of for the past six years under false pretences.

    Where treason is afoot, Macmillan-Scott will be at the very root of it.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JackW said:

    Hard for PB to ignore Wiki-Clinton with your assiduous posting not to mention that if twitter were the all encompassing political dynamic then Prime Minister Miliband would be sitting in 10 Downing Street.
    TBH, your endless snarking and claiming to be a guru isn't edifying either.

    Golly, did I just criticise a PB Sacred Cow?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,100
    Sean_F said:

    Where treason is afoot, Macmillan-Scott will be at the very root of it.
    ;-)
  • PlatoSaid said:

    And if you didn't get it

    "WASHINGTON, D.C. — Hillary Clinton’s campaign made it perfectly clear that this entire election is a big battle over the Supreme Court and Obamacare, according to the Wikileaks’ dump of John Podesta’s emails.

    Hillary Clinton friend and informal adviser Neera Tanden wrote to campaign colleagues about “King v. Burwell,” the big case about whether or not Obamacare is constitutional, which progressives were concerned about.

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/14/hillary-campaign-we-will-make-the-election-a-supreme-court-war-over-obamacare/

    If the dems are so worried about securing Obamacare, why didnt they nominate someone electable?


  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Russian Embassy UK
    Surprised to see many people write to us begging not to start a WW3. Dear UK media, please stop the war scare, seriously! https://t.co/KNear3I5Tr
  • IanB2 said:

    Nevertheless had Cameron not sold out to the nutters within, and stayed within the EPP, he might have had a bit more goodwill when he pitched up a few years later with his list of demands?
    Stay within a grouping that was committed to political union in Europe? I think the your word nutter is referring to the wrong group in this discussion. The Tories left the nutters (apart from a few like McMillan-Scott who left of their own accord) when they departed the EPP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,442
    edited October 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Where treason is afoot, Macmillan-Scott will be at the very root of it.
    In terms of worst defectors in history, I'd place MacMillan-Scott up there with Quentin Davies, Guy Burgess, Kim Philby, Judas, and Mark Reckless.

    Edit: I'm being a bit harsh by having Judas in that list, after all he had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    PlatoSaid said:

    Russian Embassy UK
    Surprised to see many people write to us begging not to start a WW3. Dear UK media, please stop the war scare, seriously! https://t.co/KNear3I5Tr

    You ok, hun?
  • Stay within a grouping that was committed to political union in Europe? I think the your word nutter is referring to the wrong group in this discussion. The Tories left the nutters (apart from a few like McMillan-Scott who left of their own accord) when they departed the EPP.
    It's like staying in a job you don't enjoy so you get on with the company better later. It's more of a gamble than leaving.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    I've told you before, IT'S NOT A VI.

    ComRes have said they aren't doing VI polls for the time being, what you are posting is voter ID, not voter intention.

    Please stop doing this. These figures generally overestimate Labour and underestimate the Tories.
    It was on UK Polling Report.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    PlatoSaid said:

    TBH, your endless snarking and claiming to be a guru isn't edifying either.

    Golly, did I just criticise a PB Sacred Cow?
    Stop posting lies and we'll stop mocking you.
  • justin124 said:

    It was on UK Polling Report.
    And it was on there the last time, and I told you it was nonsense.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,371

    In terms of worst defectors in history, I'd place MacMillan-Scott up there with Quentin Davies, Guy Burgess, Kim Philby, Judas, and Mark Reckless.

    Edit: I'm being a bit harsh by having Judas in that list, after all he had the decency to hang himself after his betrayal.
    LOL!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PlatoSaid said:

    TBH, your endless snarking and claiming to be a guru isn't edifying either.

    Golly, did I just criticise a PB Sacred Cow?

    Good heavens .... how thin skinned you've become.

    It's difficult to recognize this Plato with the much admired and PB award winning poster of yesteryear. You've gone from POTY to potty.

    Quite sad.
  • If the dems are so worried about securing Obamacare, why didnt they nominate someone electable?


    If the Reps are so concerned with repealing Obamacare, why didnt they nominate someone electable?
  • rcs1000 said:

    It's a bit more complicated than that!

    I'm on my phone so don't have time to write a proper description of how the WTO takes and process work but will try to later.
    I was simplifying as I am busy too. But the basic premise is correct. The WTO does not expect countries to suffer under one sided tariffs without being able to retaliate.
  • Alistair said:
    ... what does voter suppression mean?
This discussion has been closed.