politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after coun
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair
Even though it is now more than three months away I am still getting asked question and being invited to give talks on what happened on the betting markets on that memorable night for political punters – the EU referendum results. The above has been prepared for a session in Brussels that I am taking part in later in the month.
Comments
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First like Leave!0
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Second like Remain!0
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Third like spoiled ballots!0
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And what a night. Much kudos to Andy for his spreadsheet!0
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Well down like Owen...Owen....Owen....nope can't remember his second name.0
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As sad as a poster that relies upon numerics. Back to the kindergarten (but, thankfully, Auntie Hortence is still locked-in-the-attic)!0
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We need a POTUS equivalent...RobD said:And what a night. Much kudos to Andy for his spreadsheet!
It was a very good night for the foxinsoxuk beer fund, but sadly assets have since been depleted.
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Would like to add my thanks for Andy and his spreadsheet. Put the talking heads on the moving picture box to shame.0
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It was pretty obvious after Sunderland and Newcastle that Leave was on course to win.0
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Not if you watched the tellybox or used Remain's internal model....Remain still had their side winning.AndyJS said:It was pretty obvious after Sunderland and Newcastle that Leave was on course to win.
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10% margin for remain? Titters....FrancisUrquhart said:
Not if you watched the tellybox or used Remain's internal model....Remain still had their side winning.AndyJS said:It was pretty obvious after Sunderland and Newcastle that Leave was on course to win.
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Fourteenth like the monster raving loonies !0
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On the topic of Andy's spreadsheet, I missed it, having decided not to bet on the referendum and being out at the count in the wee hours of the 24th. I would be interested to see said spreadsheet though - where would I find it?0
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The spreadsheet predicted huge wins for Remain in London with shares of around 75% in places like Camden, so when those came through it didn't in any way mean that Remain was on course to win overall.0
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£29.99 at Aldi, batteries included.AnneJGP said:
Where do you get it & how much is it? Sounds to me as though such a wacky thing could be a worthwhile purchase.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The other thing is that its cuckooing is recorded cuckooing in the black forest or somewhere.foxinsoxuk said:
Hard to think why....Paul_Bedfordshire said:malcolmg said:
How is the clock doing, still cluckingPaul_Bedfordshire said:
This is typical of the sort of thing that if it had to be proposed as a measure by the British Government and put through parliament wouldnt stand a chance.MTimT said:
Another EU directive coming into force this year essentially bans the production of the chemical that is the basis of disinfection in hospitals and laboratories. Expect hospital-acquired (nosocomial) and laboratory-acquired infections to increase once this directive enters into force. The sad thing is that the hospital and laboratory community was not even aware, let alone involved, in the development of the regulation until it was too late to stop, as it was seen as an environmental issue. And good luck with rolling back such EU regulation once the negative impacts are felt.
These are just two I know about in my specific area of expertise
However as a directive proposed by the undemocratic commission it is nodded through as secondary legislation under the EEC Act 1972 with MPs told that it would be 'an abuse of process' to oppose it.
It makes my blood boil - or at least it would have done until June 24th when I discovered a majority of my fellow British citizens felt the same way and were not prepared to put up with this state of affairs any longer. Now I juat grimace then sigh "Thank Goodness" when I read things like that.
Also its wings are a bit odd, they are more like my spaniels ears than wings.
Plenty left over at the shop last night. They are not selling all that fast.
Unfortunately they didnt notice when they recorded it that another cuckoo was cuckooing back at it. So every time it cuckoos there is a slightly fainter response cuckoo afterwards so at ten oclock you actually get twenty cuckoos. Ten loud and ten not so loud 'echoes'.
It is quite cute though, even if it is an albino starling with a red beak and spaniel ears that cant count.
(edited to add: cue for a run on them, sold out in minutes?)
And got a light detector so it dosent cuckoo through the night (unlike some here....)0 -
FPT @Max
London never voted to support the rest of England nor England to support Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Yet that is the current reality and the outcome makes sense for everyone. The Germans won't vote to support Southern Europe yet it is in their long run interests to do so, generating future customers for their products.
The more you look at the story state of contemporary politics, the more you have to admire our predecessors who conceived and delivered something like the Marshall Plan to help Europe recover from wartime destruction. In today's politics such an idea wouldn't get past first base.0 -
Andy and his spreadsheet was the real story of the night.RobD said:And what a night. Much kudos to Andy for his spreadsheet!
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A wonderful night. I never expected that Leave could win, and was resigned to an interesting night, hoping that the result would at least be a substantial Remain.RobD said:And what a night. Much kudos to Andy for his spreadsheet!
The floods in London & elsewhere during the day, giving a sort of apocalyptic atmosphere to the vote..
@SouthamObserver and his epic journey to get to the polling booth on time, with its last-minute successful ending (at least he got to register his vote).
@AndyJS spreadsheet making the results comprehensible & meaningful right from the start.
Truly amazing.
(edited to add: and I don't even bet!)0 -
The spreadsheet was tremendously useful in allowing us to quickly validate that the early declarations were pointing towards a clear leave win - something the BBC didn't concede until three or four hours later. Despite being a remain voter and having my money originally on remain, those three hours allowed me to make more profit than any other single event from political and financial bettingEssexit said:On the topic of Andy's spreadsheet, I missed it, having decided not to bet on the referendum and being out at the count in the wee hours of the 24th. I would be interested to see said spreadsheet though - where would I find it?
Edit/ i was watching the BBC coverage, and it was very obvious that both the financial markets and the betting were being driven minute to minute by the commentary on the BBC (much of which was misguided, or at best late, in realising what was happening). Whilst people sometimes argue that Sky or ITV coverage is better, it is very clear to me that, so long as the BBC is the go-to channel for any major event such as this, if you are betting on it then the BBC is where you need to be.0 -
I forgot all about SO and his dash to the polls.AnneJGP said:
A wonderful night. I never expected that Leave could win, and was resigned to an interesting night, hoping that the result would at least be a substantial Remain.RobD said:And what a night. Much kudos to Andy for his spreadsheet!
The floods in London & elsewhere during the day, giving a sort of apocalyptic atmosphere to the vote..
@SouthamObserver and his epic journey to get to the polling booth on time, with its last-minute successful ending (at least he got to register his vote).
@AndyJS spreadsheet making the results comprehensible & meaningful right from the start.
Truly amazing.
(edited to add: and I don't even bet!)0 -
Almost. But then you got those huge Remain votes in Inner London. John Curtice reckoned that places like Wandsworth and Lambeth were 10% more favourable to Remain than his model had predicted. I don't think the outcome became clear till Sheffield voted Leave.AndyJS said:It was pretty obvious after Sunderland and Newcastle that Leave was on course to win.
FPT it's quite reasonable to focus on the countries that have done badly through Euro membership, because the Euro was advocated on the basis that it would improve performance among member States as a whole, and lead to economic convergence. It was not advocated on the basis that it would create big winners and big losers.0 -
O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
For those thinking about a british style disaster with american polling, I don't think it would materialise.
The debates will do the job of keeping Trump down, in the Town Hall debate he may insult members of the audience, and the last debate is about Foreign Policy which requires knowing details usually of the middle east.0 -
I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?0
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The difference is that most people in London feel an affinity to their fellow Briton. I don't resent that my money funds projects in other parts of the country and supports programmes in the rest of the country. I absolutely resent sending my money to the EU and to European countries who are not in any way in need of foreign aid.IanB2 said:FPT @MaxPB
London never voted to support the rest of England nor England to support Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Yet that is the current reality and the outcome makes sense for everyone. The Germans won't vote to support Southern Europe yet it is in their long run interests to do so, generating future customers for their products.
The more you look at the story state of contemporary politics, the more you have to admire our predecessors who conceived and delivered something like the Marshall Plan to help Europe recover from wartime destruction. In today's politics such an idea wouldn't get past first base.
You can't compare regular fiscal transfers to the Marshall Plan, that was a one off rebuilding of a devastated region. This would be an annual payment to countries which waste their own money through corruption and bloated public sectors. You might be in the small minority who is happy to fund overseas bureaucracy and corruption, but it is a pretty small minority, all over Europe. Already people want to reduce EU funding, not increase it. The appetite for proper fiscal transfers to equalise productivity is close to nil.0 -
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
PB straw poll - who got the best Leave price on the night, did anyone actually get the 16.4 indicated by the top of the graph above at 22:10!
I'll open with 8.6, at about 5pm UK time, I know some here got over 11 (10/1).0 -
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us0 -
What was the first debate supposed to be about? It was so dire that I didn't sense any theme at all.Speedy said:For those thinking about a british style disaster with american polling, I don't think it would materialise.
The debates will do the job of keeping Trump down, in the Town Hall debate he may insult members of the audience, and the last debate is about Foreign Policy which requires knowing details usually of the middle east.0 -
Amazon have some, at similar price point and also with nighttime silencers. Whether their cuckoos are more realistic or sound better or worse, I have no idea. Mostly they have a small number of very positive reviews. But then you have to be a bit warped to buy one in the first place.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
£29.99 at Aldi, batteries included.AnneJGP said:
Where do you get it & how much is it? Sounds to me as though such a wacky thing could be a worthwhile purchase.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
The other thing is that its cuckooing is recorded cuckooing in the black forest or somewhere.foxinsoxuk said:
Hard to think why....Paul_Bedfordshire said:malcolmg said:
How is the clock doing, still cluckingPaul_Bedfordshire said:
This is typical of the sort of thing that if it had to be proposed as a measure by the British Government and put through parliament wouldnt stand a chance.MTimT said:
Another EU directive coming into force this year essentially bans the production of the chemical that is the basis of disinfection in hospitals and laboratories
These are just two I know about in my specific area of expertise
However as a directive proposed by the undemocratic commission it is nodded through as secondary legislation under the EEC Act 1972 with MPs told that it would be 'an abuse of process' to oppose it.
It makes my blood boil - or at least it would have done until June 24th when I discovered a majority of my fellow British citizens felt the same way and were not prepared to put up with this state of affairs any longer. Now I juat grimace then sigh "Thank Goodness" when I read things like that.
Also its wings are a bit odd, they are more like my spaniels ears than wings.
Plenty left over at the shop last night. They are not selling all that fast.
Unfortunately they didnt notice when they recorded it that another cuckoo was cuckooing back at it. So every time it cuckoos there is a slightly fainter response cuckoo afterwards so at ten oclock you actually get twenty cuckoos. Ten loud and ten not so loud 'echoes'.
It is quite cute though, even if it is an albino starling with a red beak and spaniel ears that cant count.
(edited to add: cue for a run on them, sold out in minutes?)
And got a light detector so it dosent cuckoo through the night (unlike some here....)0 -
I was only up for a few hours, but second those who, rightly, heap praise upon Mr. JS. There was a vast yawning chasm of insight and intelligent comment between the site and the broadcast coverage and a very substantial part of that was the nigh-on perfect spreadsheet.
I just wish I'd put some money on it.0 -
Could have bought that trebuchet you've always wanted!Morris_Dancer said:I was only up for a few hours, but second those who, rightly, heap praise upon Mr. JS. There was a vast yawning chasm of insight and intelligent comment between the site and the broadcast coverage and a very substantial part of that was the nigh-on perfect spreadsheet.
I just wish I'd put some money on it.0 -
I was at the Luton count, and couldn't bet. I got 6/1 earlier in the day.Sandpit said:PB straw poll - who got the best Leave price on the night, did anyone get the 16.4 indicated by the graph above?
I'll open with 8.6, at about 5pm UK time, I know some here got over 11 (10/1)0 -
Racism is racism, even if all the white people in Britain outside London would back it.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
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Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
Indeed.AndyJS said:The spreadsheet predicted huge wins for Remain in London with shares of around 75% in places like Camden, so when those came through it didn't in any way mean that Remain was on course to win overall.
I think Remain did a bit better than expected in Inner London than your spreadsheet predicted but Leave did much better than expected in Outer London (the bankerland of SW London excepted).
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There was someone here who bet at 16, I remember it clearly. It was early on and at the time I thought they were throwing their money away - good odds are no use if you are going to lose your stake anyway. With hindsight they were bold to put their money where their mouth was and are probably now off yachting somewhere in the Eastern Med.Sandpit said:PB straw poll - who got the best Leave price on the night, did anyone get the 16.4 indicated by the graph above?
I'll open with 8.6, at about 5pm UK time, I know some here got over 11 (10/1)0 -
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
And this is why there has been no sensible debate on immigration in the last fifty years.Innocent_Abroad said:
Racism is racism, even if all the white people in Britain outside London would back it.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
Troll Alert.Innocent_Abroad said:
Racism is racism, even if all the white people in Britain outside London would back it.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
Me Dancer, your F1 race piece is good, but I am on the other side of your tip. We shall see who prevails in the morning.Morris_Dancer said:I was only up for a few hours, but second those who, rightly, heap praise upon Mr. JS. There was a vast yawning chasm of insight and intelligent comment between the site and the broadcast coverage and a very substantial part of that was the nigh-on perfect spreadsheet.
I just wish I'd put some money on it.0 -
Mr. D, aye, but it's rather easier judging value after events than before them.0
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Just need to perfect that time machine.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, aye, but it's rather easier judging value after events than before them.
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Mr. Sandpit, ha. What did you think of the Rosberg bet I decided against?
For those brimming with curiosity, my pre-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/malaysia-pre-race-2016.html0 -
One more vote of thanks for @AndyJS.0
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It's a good thought, but a little short. Lewis is probably 3/1 or 7/2 to mess up the start, rather than 2/1 - before taking into account the possibility of the weather losing you your bet before 08:01.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, ha. What did you think of the Rosberg bet I decided against?
For those brimming with curiosity, my pre-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/malaysia-pre-race-2016.html0 -
John Curtice was clearly paranoid about calling it too early, which eventually was annoying even Dimbleby who looked visibly irritated on TV when he asked Curtice whether leave had surely won and Curtice replied that it was still too early to say. This was long past the point where anyone with any common sense, let alone the data from the PB spreadsheet, could see that there was no way even stupendous remain votes in London could tilt the result the other way. As soon as Curtice finished his quasi-explanation of why the result might swing back, the financial and betting markets rebounded in remain's favour. Curtice's academic caution made canny punters a lot of money that night!Sean_F said:
Almost. But then you got those huge Remain votes in Inner London. John Curtice reckoned that places like Wandsworth and Lambeth were 10% more favourable to Remain than his model had predicted. I don't think the outcome became clear till Sheffield voted Leave.AndyJS said:It was pretty obvious after Sunderland and Newcastle that Leave was on course to win.
FPT it's quite reasonable to focus on the countries that have done badly through Euro membership, because the Euro was advocated on the basis that it would improve performance among member States as a whole, and lead to economic convergence. It was not advocated on the basis that it would create big winners and big losers.0 -
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?0 -
Sadly despite spending his waking hours watching cars going round in circles, even in the rain, Mr Dancer is more often wrong than right,....Sandpit said:
Me Dancer, your F1 race piece is good, but I am on the other side of your tip. We shall see who prevails in the morning.Morris_Dancer said:I was only up for a few hours, but second those who, rightly, heap praise upon Mr. JS. There was a vast yawning chasm of insight and intelligent comment between the site and the broadcast coverage and a very substantial part of that was the nigh-on perfect spreadsheet.
I just wish I'd put some money on it.0 -
I think the order of declarations had a big effect on the betting prices.
Lots of early Scottish Remain declarations and Inner London Remain declaring before more mixed Outer London.
There was also the TV's obsession with expected huge Remain wins in cities (Manchester especially) whilst Leave majorities of 40,000 plus in the Midlands and North went through steadily without a mention.
Even Sheffield - the THIRD biggest voting area - went through with hardly a comment even though it showed that Leave was about to rack up enormous majorities in the old mining areas.0 -
The average immigrant is probably more racist (and more sexist and homophobic and anti-Semitic) than the average British citizen.Innocent_Abroad said:
Racism is racism, even if all the white people in Britain outside London would back it.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
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Thats a little harsh. He and I have exchanged good and bad tips for a couple of seasons now, of course the ones we remember giving were the winners (Rosberg 5/1 in Singapore!) and the ones we remember receiving were the losers - but it evens out over time. I think we are both up cash over a couple of years.IanB2 said:
Sadly despite spending his waking hours watching cars going round in circles, even in the rain, Mr Dancer is more often wrong than right,....Sandpit said:
Me Dancer, your F1 race piece is good, but I am on the other side of your tip. We shall see who prevails in the morning.Morris_Dancer said:I was only up for a few hours, but second those who, rightly, heap praise upon Mr. JS. There was a vast yawning chasm of insight and intelligent comment between the site and the broadcast coverage and a very substantial part of that was the nigh-on perfect spreadsheet.
I just wish I'd put some money on it.0 -
I didn't mean to be unfriendly. He's a man with diverse and stimulating interests, and I am sure that watching the cars going round and round keeps him out of much potential mischief elsewhere. Just for fun I put a few £ on the last three tips I saw him make about F1 on here, knowing nothing about it whatsoever myself, and so far they've all been duds. My fault, of course, for expecting a free ride on the back of someone else's expertise! No hard feelings at all.Sandpit said:
Thats a little harsh. He and I have exchanged good and bad tips for a couple of seasons now, of course the ones we remember giving were the winners (Rosberg 5/1 in Singapore!) and the ones we remember receiving were the losers - but it evens out over time. I think we are both up cash over a couple of years.IanB2 said:
Sadly despite spending his waking hours watching cars going round in circles, even in the rain, Mr Dancer is more often wrong than right,....Sandpit said:
Me Dancer, your F1 race piece is good, but I am on the other side of your tip. We shall see who prevails in the morning.Morris_Dancer said:I was only up for a few hours, but second those who, rightly, heap praise upon Mr. JS. There was a vast yawning chasm of insight and intelligent comment between the site and the broadcast coverage and a very substantial part of that was the nigh-on perfect spreadsheet.
I just wish I'd put some money on it.0 -
Absolutely correct. A lot of the Eurozone has had a rough deal out of the common currency. It was sold to people as a quantum leap towards prosperity, not a South-to-North wealth transfer scheme.Sean_F said:FPT it's quite reasonable to focus on the countries that have done badly through Euro membership, because the Euro was advocated on the basis that it would improve performance among member States as a whole, and lead to economic convergence. It was not advocated on the basis that it would create big winners and big losers.
An assertion for which it would be interesting to see some evidence. However... the A8 accession countries which have been chiefly responsible for EU migration to Britain since 2004 just so happen to be ethnically near-homogeneous states, at least some of which have proven inimical to accepting quotas of refugees partly on the basis that they refuse to have anything to do with Muslims.another_richard said:The average immigrant is probably more racist (and more sexist and homophobic and anti-Semitic) than the average British citizen.
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Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.0 -
Thanks to you both. I actually meant for the EU referendum, sorry!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.0 -
That sounds reasonable. As you suggested earlier we need an American @AndyJS to do a spreadsheet for us!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
The TV networks calling states very early is a dangerous game that backfires when it's close. It seems they'd all rather be first than right. In 2000 Gore even called Bush to concede based on what the networks were saying about Florida - then called him back half an hour later to recant!0 -
Mr. B2, I was off by that time, but that's an astute observation and worth remembering for future betting.0
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Mr. B2, that is true [I'm more wrong than right, this year, at least].
Your mistake was timing. The moment to put a few pounds on a tip I offered was about a week before the Spanish Grand Prix.0 -
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.0 -
http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/node/6605
Worth reading as to the reasons for controlling immigration.0 -
Poland has given proportionately more in the fight against tyranny than any other nation on earth. And they welcomed British people there with open arms, both before and after the Wall came down. If the price we have to pay is welcoming into our country a few extra plumbers, then so be it.MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.0 -
Undeniably Italy is big loser. Its trading performance has deteriorated since 1999, and its GDP per head has gone from parity with the UK to about $5,000 less, at a time when the UK has not grown especially rapidly. Germany of course is a big winner.Black_Rook said:
Absolutely correct. A lot of the Eurozone has had a rough deal out of the common currency. It was sold to people as a quantum leap towards prosperity, not a South-to-North wealth transfer scheme.Sean_F said:FPT it's quite reasonable to focus on the countries that have done badly through Euro membership, because the Euro was advocated on the basis that it would improve performance among member States as a whole, and lead to economic convergence. It was not advocated on the basis that it would create big winners and big losers.
An assertion for which it would be interesting to see some evidence. However... the A8 accession countries which have been chiefly responsible for EU migration to Britain since 2004 just so happen to be ethnically near-homogeneous states, at least some of which have proven inimical to accepting quotas of refugees partly on the basis that they refuse to have anything to do with Muslims.another_richard said:The average immigrant is probably more racist (and more sexist and homophobic and anti-Semitic) than the average British citizen.
0 -
I think part of the thing with US states 'decleration' times is that the votes are actually announced district by district rather than a single statewide number.
We are thinking of them as 50 constituencies rather than the thousands of counties they are.0 -
I'd expect the swing in Indiana to be similar to the national swing. Currently, Trump leads by a similar margin there to 2012.RobD said:
Thanks to you both. I actually meant for the EU referendum, sorry!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
0 -
Italy has been particularly hard hit because its economic model was based around an inflexible labour market, offset by constant currency depreciation. In other words, any inflexibility in the system was worked around by everyone getting (effectively) a 5% cut in their real wages every year through the exchange rate.Sean_F said:Undeniably Italy is big loser. Its trading performance has deteriorated since 1999, and its GDP per head has gone from parity with the UK to about $5,000 less, at a time when the UK has not grown especially rapidly. Germany of course is a big winner.
There's another baleful effect people tend to forget about the constant depreciation model: it screwed Italians with savings. Those who put their money in the bank saw its value being eked away every year. We forget that, in a world of 7% inflation, the value of your savings halves every decade.
It's also worth remembering one other thing about Italy: they were always going to get hammered by demographics, in or out of the Eurozone. They have the worst TFR in Western Europe, and that means that 'drag' from a diminishing working age population, and a rising number of retirees, was always going to cause economic growth to slow dramatically.
Now, the big question is would Italy's economy revive itself by leaving the Eurozone? Unlike with Greece (where the answer is a clear yes), I don't think it's so simple with Italy. For a start, boosting exports is hardly the problem in Italy (which already runs a sizeable current account surplus). Indeed, I suspect that - as with Japan, which Italy so obviously resembles - Italy outside the Euro might see its currency rise rather than fall.
On the other hand, leaving would allow monetisation of the Italian government's debt burden, which would be a long-term positive for the country.0 -
How much of this is due to other factors though, such as to low fertility rates, and old fashioned labour laws? There are many factors in Italian underperformance, as indeed there are in lacklustre British economic growth since 2000.Sean_F said:
Undeniably Italy is big loser. Its trading performance has deteriorated since 1999, and its GDP per head has gone from parity with the UK to about $5,000 less, at a time when the UK has not grown especially rapidly. Germany of course is a big winner.Black_Rook said:
Absolutely correct. A lot of the Eurozone has had a rough deal out of the common currency. It was sold to people as a quantum leap towards prosperity, not a South-to-North wealth transfer scheme.Sean_F said:FPT it's quite reasonable to focus on the countries that have done badly through Euro membership, because the Euro was advocated on the basis that it would improve performance among member States as a whole, and lead to economic convergence. It was not advocated on the basis that it would create big winners and big losers.
An assertion for which it would be interesting to see some evidence. However... the A8 accession countries which have been chiefly responsible for EU migration to Britain since 2004 just so happen to be ethnically near-homogeneous states, at least some of which have proven inimical to accepting quotas of refugees partly on the basis that they refuse to have anything to do with Muslims.another_richard said:The average immigrant is probably more racist (and more sexist and homophobic and anti-Semitic) than the average British citizen.
0 -
I'd like to thank AndyJS too. It was - by a significant margin - the most profitable betting night of my life.Sandpit said:0 -
I must be talking to myselfSean_F said:
I'd expect the swing in Indiana to be similar to the national swing. Currently, Trump leads by a similar margin there to 2012.RobD said:
Thanks to you both. I actually meant for the EU referendum, sorry!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
0 -
How do you define undercut?RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.0 -
And instructive for those who simplisticly assert that the 15% devaluation of the £ is somehow a get out of jail card.rcs1000 said:
Italy has been particularly hard hit because its economic model was based around an inflexible labour market, offset by constant currency depreciation. In other words, any inflexibility in the system was worked around by everyone getting (effectively) a 5% cut in their real wages every year through the exchange rate.Sean_F said:Undeniably Italy is big loser. Its trading performance has deteriorated since 1999, and its GDP per head has gone from parity with the UK to about $5,000 less, at a time when the UK has not grown especially rapidly. Germany of course is a big winner.
There's another baleful effect people tend to forget about the constant depreciation model: it screwed Italians with savings. Those who put their money in the bank saw its value being eked away every year. We forget that, in a world of 7% inflation, the value of your savings halves every decade.
It's also worth remembering one other thing about Italy: they were always going to get hammered by demographics, in or out of the Eurozone. They have the worst TFR in Western Europe, and that means that 'drag' from a diminishing working age population, and a rising number of retirees, was always going to cause economic growth to slow dramatically.
Now, the big question is would Italy's economy revive itself by leaving the Eurozone? Unlike with Greece (where the answer is a clear yes), I don't think it's so simple with Italy. For a start, boosting exports is hardly the problem in Italy (which already runs a sizeable current account surplus). Indeed, I suspect that - as with Japan, which Italy so obviously resembles - Italy outside the Euro might see its currency rise rather than fall.
On the other hand, leaving would allow monetisation of the Italian government's debt burden, which would be a long-term positive for the country.0 -
So you're saying that Britain has some eternal and unlimited obligation to Poland because its situated between Germany and Russia ?IanB2 said:
Poland has given proportionately more in the fight against tyranny than any other nation on earth. And they welcomed British people there with open arms, both before and after the Wall came down. If the price we have to pay is welcoming into our country a few extra plumbers, then so be it.MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.
0 -
I don't think anyone would want to see a continued depreciation of the pound. What I find curious is that none of the experts realised that a weaker pound would help the UK economy after a vote to leave the EU. What we don't want to see is the economy get hooked on a devaluing currency achieved through printing money. That's why I want to see a change in leadership at the BoE.IanB2 said:And instructive for those who simplisticly assert that the 15% devaluation of the £ is somehow a get out of jail card.
0 -
What barbaric standards ?MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.
The Tories first raised it more than 10 years ago, and that started the ball rolling.0 -
If its the times EU referendum declaration results you want you can effectively see them on the BBC program:RobD said:
I must be talking to myselfSean_F said:
I'd expect the swing in Indiana to be similar to the national swing. Currently, Trump leads by a similar margin there to 2012.RobD said:
Thanks to you both. I actually meant for the EU referendum, sorry!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TmUP1StPf0
0 -
That's not true at all. Melissa Kidd at Redburn, who's my favourite UK economist, wrote before the vote that sterling depreciation would provide a meaningful safety valve. She was also very clear that she did not expect a recession as a result of the Brexit vote. (Although she does expect a slowdown next year.)tlg86 said:
I don't think anyone would want to see a continued depreciation of the pound. What I find curious is that none of the experts realised that a weaker pound would help the UK economy after a vote to leave the EU. What we don't want to see is the economy get hooked on a devaluing currency achieved through printing money. That's why I want to see a change in leadership at the BoE.IanB2 said:And instructive for those who simplisticly assert that the 15% devaluation of the £ is somehow a get out of jail card.
0 -
The most recent poll in Indiana had Trump on a 7% lead in early Sept, so down on 2012 Republicans. Also worth noting that with Pence being a former Indiana governor there may be a local boy effect here too, that makes interpretation of UNS difficult.Sean_F said:
I'd expect the swing in Indiana to be similar to the national swing. Currently, Trump leads by a similar margin there to 2012.RobD said:
Thanks to you both. I actually meant for the EU referendum, sorry!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
To me it looks as if Trump is some way behind Romney's performance. Still 40 days and two debates to go.0 -
Their pilots helped bail us out in 1940. Their soldiers supported us in Italy in 1943/4. They did the initial work without which we would never have broken the enigma code. They did the most to begin to end the scourge of communism in Europe. And their gratitude to the British endures to this day, despite the fact that what we did failed them in the end. So your point is?another_richard said:
So you're saying that Britain has some eternal and unlimited obligation to Poland because its situated between Germany and Russia ?IanB2 said:
Poland has given proportionately more in the fight against tyranny than any other nation on earth. And they welcomed British people there with open arms, both before and after the Wall came down. If the price we have to pay is welcoming into our country a few extra plumbers, then so be it.MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.0 -
True, but when they start coming in thick and fast it is difficult.another_richard said:
If its the times EU referendum declaration results you want you can effectively see them on the BBC program:RobD said:
I must be talking to myselfSean_F said:
I'd expect the swing in Indiana to be similar to the national swing. Currently, Trump leads by a similar margin there to 2012.RobD said:
Thanks to you both. I actually meant for the EU referendum, sorry!foxinsoxuk said:
Thats the best that I could find (though perhaps the PB thread of the night would give a clearer timeline). What I do find difficult is that in the US the networks call states with only a minority of votes counted. I am not sure how reliable this is compared to UK formal declarations.Alistair said:
Here's a table from 2012 of predicted declerations - I can't seem to find a table of actual 2012 declerations.RobD said:I don't suppose anyone has a table of declaration times available?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TmUP1StPf00 -
France:
Macron makes his first big campaign stop on Tuesday to diagnose France's problems. I think he should be weary of hitting too early, before he knows his opposition.0 -
Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%0 -
Okay, let me rephrase, none of the experts who were given the time of day by the MSM.rcs1000 said:
That's not true at all. Melissa Kidd at Redburn, who's my favourite UK economist, wrote before the vote that sterling depreciation would provide a meaningful safety valve. She was also very clear that she did not expect a recession as a result of the Brexit vote. (Although she does expect a slowdown next year.)tlg86 said:
I don't think anyone would want to see a continued depreciation of the pound. What I find curious is that none of the experts realised that a weaker pound would help the UK economy after a vote to leave the EU. What we don't want to see is the economy get hooked on a devaluing currency achieved through printing money. That's why I want to see a change in leadership at the BoE.IanB2 said:And instructive for those who simplisticly assert that the 15% devaluation of the £ is somehow a get out of jail card.
0 -
History is history.another_richard said:
So you're saying that Britain has some eternal and unlimited obligation to Poland because its situated between Germany and Russia ?IanB2 said:
Poland has given proportionately more in the fight against tyranny than any other nation on earth. And they welcomed British people there with open arms, both before and after the Wall came down. If the price we have to pay is welcoming into our country a few extra plumbers, then so be it.MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.
My observation is that I am yet to meet a Pole that I do not like. Very welcome migrants in my book.0 -
That's because "It's probably going to be OK" is not very newsworthy.tlg86 said:
Okay, let me rephrase, none of the experts who were given the time of day by the MSM.rcs1000 said:
That's not true at all. Melissa Kidd at Redburn, who's my favourite UK economist, wrote before the vote that sterling depreciation would provide a meaningful safety valve. She was also very clear that she did not expect a recession as a result of the Brexit vote. (Although she does expect a slowdown next year.)tlg86 said:
I don't think anyone would want to see a continued depreciation of the pound. What I find curious is that none of the experts realised that a weaker pound would help the UK economy after a vote to leave the EU. What we don't want to see is the economy get hooked on a devaluing currency achieved through printing money. That's why I want to see a change in leadership at the BoE.IanB2 said:And instructive for those who simplisticly assert that the 15% devaluation of the £ is somehow a get out of jail card.
0 -
Italy?rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%0 -
Is he running as an Independent or a Socialist?TheWhiteRabbit said:France:
Macron makes his first big campaign stop on Tuesday to diagnose France's problems. I think he should be weary of hitting too early, before he knows his opposition.0 -
Racism is whatever the left think it should be to enable them to be sanctimonious.Innocent_Abroad said:
Racism is racism, even if all the white people in Britain outside London would back it.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
Fortunately the people have a more realistic understanding of what racism is.0 -
Good guess, but no.foxinsoxuk said:
Italy?rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%
(Italy was not occupied for long enough, and large parts were never German occupied.)0 -
Netherlands?rcs1000 said:
Good guess, but no.foxinsoxuk said:
Italy?rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%
(Italy was not occupied for long enough, and large parts were never German occupied.)0 -
Something obscure like Luxembourg?rcs1000 said:
Good guess, but no.foxinsoxuk said:
Italy?rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%
(Italy was not occupied for long enough, and large parts were never German occupied.)0 -
There is no denying that Poland lost the most, by far, but is not western. My guess for Western Europe would be Holland, because of the famine before liberation.rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%
0 -
Correct. (And good guessRobD said:
Something obscure like Luxembourg?rcs1000 said:
Good guess, but no.foxinsoxuk said:
Italy?rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%
(Italy was not occupied for long enough, and large parts were never German occupied.)
) 0 -
You're putting the cart before the horse.IanB2 said:
Their pilots helped bail us out in 1940. Their soldiers supported us in Italy in 1943/4. They did the most to begin to end the scourge of communism in Europe. And their gratitude to the British endures to this day, despite the fact that what we did failed them in the end. So your point is?another_richard said:
So you're saying that Britain has some eternal and unlimited obligation to Poland because its situated between Germany and Russia ?IanB2 said:
Poland has given proportionately more in the fight against tyranny than any other nation on earth. And they welcomed British people there with open arms, both before and after the Wall came down. If the price we have to pay is welcoming into our country a few extra plumbers, then so be it.MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.
Britain declared war on Germany to defend Poland.
Polish pilots and soldiers weren't helping Britain out from altruism but because their country was at war with Germany.
The same Poland incidentally which joined Germany in the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia the year before.
There's more justification to allow unlimited immigration from India for the all volunteer Indian military personnel who fought for the British Empire in multiple wars than there is for unlimited immigration from Poland.
0 -
Brilliant! (Well, not for the Luxembourgish)rcs1000 said:
Correct. (And good guessRobD said:
Something obscure like Luxembourg?rcs1000 said:
Good guess, but no.foxinsoxuk said:
Italy?rcs1000 said:Quiz question for PBers: which Western European nation lost the highest proportion of its population during Nazi occupation?*
* About 2%
(Italy was not occupied for long enough, and large parts were never German occupied.))0 -
Yes I would support special moves to exempt Poland from any freedom of movement controls.IanB2 said:
Their pilots helped bail us out in 1940. Their soldiers supported us in Italy in 1943/4. They did the initial work without which we would never have broken the enigma code. They did the most to begin to end the scourge of communism in Europe. And their gratitude to the British endures to this day, despite the fact that what we did failed them in the end. So your point is?another_richard said:
So you're saying that Britain has some eternal and unlimited obligation to Poland because its situated between Germany and Russia ?IanB2 said:
Poland has given proportionately more in the fight against tyranny than any other nation on earth. And they welcomed British people there with open arms, both before and after the Wall came down. If the price we have to pay is welcoming into our country a few extra plumbers, then so be it.MonikerDiCanio said:
" The immigration issue started with " Polish Plumbers "."Speedy said:
The immigration issue started with "Polish Plumbers".RobD said:
Any system would be stricter than the one we have now. If people are coming with job offers (and Brits aren't being undercut), I can't see it as a big issue.Speedy said:
Visas for construction workers looks like it will go down badly as expected.RobD said:
Only 7% want more immigration. Take note, Soubry.Black_Rook said:O/T, thought I would share:
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.
Its discrimination so the left wont like it but so what. Sovereignty means we can duscriminate if we want.0
for Andy's spreadsheet - must have made tens of thousands of pounds for those on this board alone. 
