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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after coun
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair
Even though it is now more than three months away I am still getting asked question and being invited to give talks on what happened on the betting markets on that memorable night for political punters – the EU referendum results. The above has been prepared for a session in Brussels that I am taking part in later in the month.
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It was a very good night for the foxinsoxuk beer fund, but sadly assets have since been depleted.
And got a light detector so it dosent cuckoo through the night (unlike some here....)
London never voted to support the rest of England nor England to support Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Yet that is the current reality and the outcome makes sense for everyone. The Germans won't vote to support Southern Europe yet it is in their long run interests to do so, generating future customers for their products.
The more you look at the story state of contemporary politics, the more you have to admire our predecessors who conceived and delivered something like the Marshall Plan to help Europe recover from wartime destruction. In today's politics such an idea wouldn't get past first base.
The floods in London & elsewhere during the day, giving a sort of apocalyptic atmosphere to the vote..
@SouthamObserver and his epic journey to get to the polling booth on time, with its last-minute successful ending (at least he got to register his vote).
@AndyJS spreadsheet making the results comprehensible & meaningful right from the start.
Truly amazing.
(edited to add: and I don't even bet!)
Edit/ i was watching the BBC coverage, and it was very obvious that both the financial markets and the betting were being driven minute to minute by the commentary on the BBC (much of which was misguided, or at best late, in realising what was happening). Whilst people sometimes argue that Sky or ITV coverage is better, it is very clear to me that, so long as the BBC is the go-to channel for any major event such as this, if you are betting on it then the BBC is where you need to be.
FPT it's quite reasonable to focus on the countries that have done badly through Euro membership, because the Euro was advocated on the basis that it would improve performance among member States as a whole, and lead to economic convergence. It was not advocated on the basis that it would create big winners and big losers.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/782258453259644928
The influence of the North London tendency continues to make itself felt on Labour thinking. At this rate, there won't be anything else left of the party.
The debates will do the job of keeping Trump down, in the Town Hall debate he may insult members of the audience, and the last debate is about Foreign Policy which requires knowing details usually of the middle east.
You can't compare regular fiscal transfers to the Marshall Plan, that was a one off rebuilding of a devastated region. This would be an annual payment to countries which waste their own money through corruption and bloated public sectors. You might be in the small minority who is happy to fund overseas bureaucracy and corruption, but it is a pretty small minority, all over Europe. Already people want to reduce EU funding, not increase it. The appetite for proper fiscal transfers to equalise productivity is close to nil.
I'll open with 8.6, at about 5pm UK time, I know some here got over 11 (10/1).
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/06/time-states-election-results-us
I just wish I'd put some money on it.
I think Remain did a bit better than expected in Inner London than your spreadsheet predicted but Leave did much better than expected in Outer London (the bankerland of SW London excepted).
For those brimming with curiosity, my pre-race piece is here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/malaysia-pre-race-2016.html
You are never going to appear to solve the issue if you don't do something about the group that started the ball rolling, you have heard the phrase "the root of all evil" ?
Lots of early Scottish Remain declarations and Inner London Remain declaring before more mixed Outer London.
There was also the TV's obsession with expected huge Remain wins in cities (Manchester especially) whilst Leave majorities of 40,000 plus in the Midlands and North went through steadily without a mention.
Even Sheffield - the THIRD biggest voting area - went through with hardly a comment even though it showed that Leave was about to rack up enormous majorities in the old mining areas.
In 2012 Indiana split 54% Republican, 44% Democrat, so unless Trump has in that region of lead I would suggest Hillary is POTUS, assuming that it is still the first state reporting. I would suggest Trump needs something like 57% to be winning nationally.
The TV networks calling states very early is a dangerous game that backfires when it's close. It seems they'd all rather be first than right. In 2000 Gore even called Bush to concede based on what the networks were saying about Florida - then called him back half an hour later to recant!
Your mistake was timing. The moment to put a few pounds on a tip I offered was about a week before the Spanish Grand Prix.
Even by your barbaric standards that's a statement of paralyzing ignorance.
Worth reading as to the reasons for controlling immigration.
We are thinking of them as 50 constituencies rather than the thousands of counties they are.
There's another baleful effect people tend to forget about the constant depreciation model: it screwed Italians with savings. Those who put their money in the bank saw its value being eked away every year. We forget that, in a world of 7% inflation, the value of your savings halves every decade.
It's also worth remembering one other thing about Italy: they were always going to get hammered by demographics, in or out of the Eurozone. They have the worst TFR in Western Europe, and that means that 'drag' from a diminishing working age population, and a rising number of retirees, was always going to cause economic growth to slow dramatically.
Now, the big question is would Italy's economy revive itself by leaving the Eurozone? Unlike with Greece (where the answer is a clear yes), I don't think it's so simple with Italy. For a start, boosting exports is hardly the problem in Italy (which already runs a sizeable current account surplus). Indeed, I suspect that - as with Japan, which Italy so obviously resembles - Italy outside the Euro might see its currency rise rather than fall.
On the other hand, leaving would allow monetisation of the Italian government's debt burden, which would be a long-term positive for the country.
The Tories first raised it more than 10 years ago, and that started the ball rolling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TmUP1StPf0
To me it looks as if Trump is some way behind Romney's performance. Still 40 days and two debates to go.
Macron makes his first big campaign stop on Tuesday to diagnose France's problems. I think he should be weary of hitting too early, before he knows his opposition.
* About 2%
My observation is that I am yet to meet a Pole that I do not like. Very welcome migrants in my book.
Fortunately the people have a more realistic understanding of what racism is.
(Italy was not occupied for long enough, and large parts were never German occupied.)
Britain declared war on Germany to defend Poland.
Polish pilots and soldiers weren't helping Britain out from altruism but because their country was at war with Germany.
The same Poland incidentally which joined Germany in the dismemberment of Czechoslovakia the year before.
There's more justification to allow unlimited immigration from India for the all volunteer Indian military personnel who fought for the British Empire in multiple wars than there is for unlimited immigration from Poland.
Its discrimination so the left wont like it but so what. Sovereignty means we can duscriminate if we want.