politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widel
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived
Just got back from holiday in the south of France and am focusing on the political session at a big betting conference that I am taking part in on Friday . Inevitably we will be looking back at what happened on June 23rd – the biggest political betting election ever.
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bugger0
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Who?0
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turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.0
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"A final thought is that the polls that tended to be most highlighted were, for whatever reason, those with REMAIN leads. Maybe this impacts on our perceptions."
Highlighted by the author of this article, no less! ;-)
Good to see you back, Mike.0 -
ICM did an amazing job in the end, I wonder why the Guardian stopped getting the polls. *Innocent face*0
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I've been saying this about the polling to a while now.0
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Do you live in Pitstone?Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
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Ipsos MORI, ORB, and Yougov would all have done better, had they not adjusted their final results in a Remain-friendly direction.0
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"My view is that the scale of early voting by post is impacting on final surveys. Many of those being sampled on June 22nd would have actually cast their postal ballots three weeks earlier which increases the possibility of them not giving an accurate response. "
I'm struggling to believe this can really account for the inaccuracy of final polls; surely this wouldn't bias one particular way, but that is what is seen in the EU ref polls?0 -
I became quite excited when first glimpsing tonight's thread - I imagined, silly me, that after almost 12 weeks we were about to see the results on the PB.com EU referendum competition.0
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peter_from_putney said:
I became quite excited when first glimpsing tonight's thread - I imagined, silly me, that after almost 12 weeks we were about to see the results on the PB.com EU referendum competition.
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Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
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Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
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ish...AndyJS said:
Do you live in Pitstone?Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
poawas..gooners losing in 1 minute0 -
FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.0 -
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AQoI3SjmZta2KL1wMSHWrUozrFiXGfrqRq1U7fGhyAU/edit#gid=0Alistair said:I've been saying this about the polling to a while now.
Leave took the lead around 21 days out0 -
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
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In their defense the working-class and non-graduate turnout was unusual. They'd have had more egg on their faces if they'd chosen not to apply their standard adjustments and shown more Leave leads as a result only for Remain to edge it anyway.Sean_F said:Ipsos MORI, ORB, and Yougov would all have done better, had they not adjusted their final results in a Remain-friendly direction.
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Most men I know (including me) do what their wives tell them.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.0 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqQgDwA0BNUCyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.0 -
I believe ICM had an exclusivity deal with one of the Leave campaigns towards the end of the campaign.MaxPB said:ICM did an amazing job in the end, I wonder why the Guardian stopped getting the polls. *Innocent face*
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He is very europhile.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
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I wonder what the wives of the most men you know would say.........Sean_F said:
Most men I know (including me) do what their wives tell them.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
Also, having to tell others to do something is tiresome. It would be nice if men realized that something needed doing and did it without being asked/told/ordered to do it.
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He'd well at home in a breakaway fiscally dry, socially liberal Tory Party not obsessed about gays, Europe, and immigration.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
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I find it bizarre - and rather sad - that someone would cut out a friend over something like the EU referendum. I have plenty of friends and family who have taken different views on this topic, both from me and each other. I regard it as irrelevant to whether we will be friends.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
Yeah, it was binary choice, and by the last week, everyone knew it would a narrow win for either side. Pollsters didn't want to come down narrowly on the wrong side, so they adjusted accordingly.Essexit said:
In their defense the working-class and non-graduate turnout was unusual. They'd have had more egg on their faces if they'd chosen not to apply their standard adjustments and shown more Leave leads as a result only for Remain to edge it anyway.Sean_F said:Ipsos MORI, ORB, and Yougov would all have done better, had they not adjusted their final results in a Remain-friendly direction.
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I'm sorry to be late to the party, but I'm just catching up with the boundary review and seeing that Corbyn's notional seat has a huge Jewish population. Karma, eh?
Bit disappointed the BC didn't attempt to create a Stamford Hill and Golders Green seat specially for him, but top trolling.
In other news, my parents' village has moved back to the revived Littleborough and Saddleworth constituency, but the BC has it as notionally Labour? Never held by Lab in the past, was a LD/Tory marginal, stable affluent population, very little social housing. Come on the LD surge!0 -
It's not about him backing Leave, it is the outright lies that Hilton came out with.Cyclefree said:
I find it bizarre - and rather sad - that someone would cut out a friend over something like the EU referendum. I have plenty of friends and family who have taken different views on this topic, both from me and each other. I regard it as irrelevant to whether we will be friends.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
Hilton also pissed off a lot of a Tories pretty much taking the credit for all the good thing the Tories did between 2005 and 2012.
Mr Hilton once wasted government time trying to spend money on cloud busting technology to improve the UK's weather.0 -
That's the very essence of serving royalty, anticipating their instructions, before they give them.Cyclefree said:
I wonder what the wives of the most men you know would say.........Sean_F said:
Most men I know (including me) do what their wives tell them.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
Also, having to tell others to do something is tiresome. It would be nice if men realized that something needed doing and did it without being asked/told/ordered to do it.
Joking aside, I'd lived a long time as a bachelor before marrying, so I'd already got into the habit of doing cooking/housework.0 -
So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.0 -
Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.0 -
Public Policy Polling
Our sample was 33% reporters and the media, 33% NYC homeless, 33% Chicago gangbangers, and 1% lizard people https://t.co/LCdZJahNct0 -
Ah, well, planning and thinking ahead about what needs to be done/bought; well, that is Herself's job. Not for any sexist reasons, you understand, it is just that when I have tried to anticipate I have usually ended up getting told off. Much better and safer to do what I am told.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
As Mr. F upthread confirms, most husbands do as they are told. We find it easier and more harmonious that way. Also we can't get shouted at for forgetting something if we haven't been told to do it or buy it. "Was that on the list, darling?"0 -
I'd be curious to see a thread on this basis looking at last three weeks of the 2015 General Election. My memory is that excluding YouGov there were many accurate polls prior to the vote just not the final ones. Eg ICM had one almost spot on from memory.
If it turns out premature polls are better predictors than final ones that could have huge implications for predicting and thus betting.0 -
The huge Jewish community in Corbyn's prospective seat is undoubtedly the best and funniest thing about all of the boundary reviews. Maybe Chakrabati should canves scored him. I am sure that would prevent any misunderstanding.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I'm sorry to be late to the party, but I'm just catching up with the boundary review and seeing that Corbyn's notional seat has a huge Jewish population. Karma, eh?
Bit disappointed the BC didn't attempt to create a Stamford Hill and Golders Green seat specially for him, but top trolling.
In other news, my parents' village has moved back to the revived Littleborough and Saddleworth constituency, but the BC has it as notionally Labour? Never held by Lab in the past, was a LD/Tory marginal, stable affluent population, very little social housing. Come on the LD surge!0 -
Little change to St Albans constituency. As the ward boundaries in Three Rivers have changed, we lose the old Bedmond ward but gain Abbots Langley and Bedmond plus Leavesden wards.
I think, based on local election results, that is a positive for the Lib Dems and certainly better than adding Sandridge would have been.0 -
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
He sees grammar and private schools as means of vesting upper and middle class privilege. He is right of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
Wanderer said:
Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.0 -
No they thought the trend was to remain which is why they had it ahead in 8 of the last 11 polls. They were wrong.Sean_F said:Wanderer said:Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.0 -
Even though we have entered the zone of selected amnesia about polling, my opinion has not changed.
British polls continue to be unreliable and unstable, because those conducting the polls have little faith in their own results, and have to constantly shift the numbers here and there until they conform to their own personal view.0 -
I think there was a slight movement back to Remain in the last 10(ish) days, but not enough obviously.DavidL said:
No they thought the trend was to remain which is why they had it ahead in 8 of the last 11 polls. They were wrong.Sean_F said:Wanderer said:Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.0 -
But, I think there's a huge difference between the privilege you enjoy at David Cameron's level, and the privilege you enjoy at junior management, skilled craftsman level, the latter being the sort of people whose children benefitted from Grammar schools (even if the latter are much more privileged than the poor).DavidL said:
He sees grammar and private schools as means of vesting upper and middle class privilege. He is right of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
0 -
Comprehensive schools in the wealthiest catchment areas of course arguably do that even moreDavidL said:
He sees grammar and private schools as means of vesting upper and middle class privilege. He is right of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
"A final thought is that the polls that tended to be most highlighted were, for whatever reason, those with REMAIN leads. Maybe this impacts on our perceptions."
The problem was that people were insistent on the accuracy of telephone polls, whereas internet polls consistently do better at identifying 'taboo' opinion.
It's interesting that Corbyn is widely commentated upon as an absolute imbecile, which makes me wonder about the future scope for Shy Labour.0 -
Indeed, Survation had an eve of poll general election poll that was almost exactly right but did not publish. Had more pollsters focused only on those 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref they would also have been more accurateSpeedy said:Even though we have entered the zone of selected amnesia about polling, my opinion has not changed.
British polls continue to be unreliable and unstable, because those conducting the polls have little faith in their own results, and have to constantly shift the numbers here and there until they conform to their own personal view.0 -
Cameron is the epitome of the public school Tory who opposes meritocracy through snobbishness and insecurity.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
The man who lectured the country on "Brits don't quit" has now quit both his jobs and is perhaps going to quit his country as well.
0 -
I don't. I think that those wanting remain thought it was inconceivable that people would vote leave after Cox's death and that the pollsters deluded themselves into believing that too. On the 22nd I forecast 52:48 leave. I did so on the basis of the debate on here as much as anything. It seemed to me that the remain arguments had found no traction or persuasive power at all. No doubt I was lucky and the pollsters were just unlucky but anyone investing their hard earned on their say so needs their head examined.Wanderer said:
I think there was a slight movement back to Remain in the last 10(ish) days, but not enough obviously.DavidL said:
No they thought the trend was to remain which is why they had it ahead in 8 of the last 11 polls. They were wrong.Sean_F said:Wanderer said:Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.0 -
But you're not as petty and insecure as David Cameron.Cyclefree said:
I find it bizarre - and rather sad - that someone would cut out a friend over something like the EU referendum. I have plenty of friends and family who have taken different views on this topic, both from me and each other. I regard it as irrelevant to whether we will be friends.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
Or as self-entitled.
0 -
Hurrah!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
He'd well at home in a breakaway fiscally dry, socially liberal Tory Party not obsessed about gays, Europe, and immigration.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
Explains the UKIP shop in glamorous Halton then...0 -
That's his point yes. And he is right.HYUFD said:
Comprehensive schools in the wealthiest catchment areas of course arguably do that even moreDavidL said:
He sees grammar and private schools as means of vesting upper and middle class privilege. He is right of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
I think that's right, but with a proviso. Internet polls on the continent have persistently overstated support for insurgent parties: the FN, Syriza, Podemos, and the PVV all meaningfully undershot their Internet poll scores. Internet polls tend to overstate those political parties who's supporters are particularly motivated.chestnut said:"A final thought is that the polls that tended to be most highlighted were, for whatever reason, those with REMAIN leads. Maybe this impacts on our perceptions."
The problem was that people were insistent on the accuracy of telephone polls, whereas internet polls consistently do better at identifying 'taboo' opinion.
It's interesting that Corbyn is widely commentated upon as an absolute imbecile, which makes me wonder about the future scope for Shy Labour.0 -
One interesting thing in retrospect was the number of 'voodoo' type polls showing strongly Leave in working class areas.DavidL said:
I don't. I think that those wanting remain thought it was inconceivable that people would vote leave after Cox's death and that the pollsters deluded themselves into believing that too. On the 22nd I forecast 52:48 leave. I did so on the basis of the debate on here as much as anything. It seemed to me that the remain arguments had found no traction or persuasive power at all. No doubt I was lucky and the pollsters were just unlucky but anyone investing their hard earned on their say so needs their head examined.Wanderer said:
I think there was a slight movement back to Remain in the last 10(ish) days, but not enough obviously.DavidL said:
No they thought the trend was to remain which is why they had it ahead in 8 of the last 11 polls. They were wrong.Sean_F said:Wanderer said:Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.
One thing I would like to see is the difference in turnout for each individual area between the general election and the referendum.
0 -
I find it rather sad too, though I'm skeptical about whether the report is true or not. However unlike you or me, Cameron underwent a very personal defeat and lost what must have been his dream job over it in a humiliating fashion on the global scale - that will now forever define his place in history.another_richard said:
But you're not as petty and insecure as David Cameron.Cyclefree said:
I find it bizarre - and rather sad - that someone would cut out a friend over something like the EU referendum. I have plenty of friends and family who have taken different views on this topic, both from me and each other. I regard it as irrelevant to whether we will be friends.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
Or as self-entitled.0 -
I would be suspicious of any "news" from the Daily Wail.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
0 -
Oh absolutely. But grammar schools were the private schools the middle class could not afford. They dominated them because their children came from homes where books were read, where homework was important, where ambition was encouraged. In latter times they could also afford the necessary tutoring. People who point to the odd working class exception there with a scholarship to pay for his or her uniform are guilty of either wishful thinking or deliberate blindness. They were not a ladder for more than a handful of the poor, they were an escalator built for the middle classes. And going back to that simply will not improve social mobility.Sean_F said:
But, I think there's a huge difference between the privilege you enjoy at David Cameron's level, and the privilege you enjoy at junior management, skilled craftsman level, the latter being the sort of people whose children benefitted from Grammar schools (even if the latter are much more privileged than the poor).DavidL said:
He sees grammar and private schools as means of vesting upper and middle class privilege. He is right of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
I think that Cameron's concern for the poor is sincere and genuine. But, he overlooks those who are not poor, but not privileged, either.another_richard said:
Cameron is the epitome of the public school Tory who opposes meritocracy through snobbishness and insecurity.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
The man who lectured the country on "Brits don't quit" has now quit both his jobs and is perhaps going to quit his country as well.0 -
Sorry but this doesn't make sense Mike.
If the polling companies thought it was wise to include prior polls in their calculations they would do so. They don't provide poll results just to mix in the average, and then we'll see.
What you may be demonstrating is that the polling companies had all the evidence to predict the result but didn't.
How did everyone misinterpret the polls if your assertion is right?
We know that the final polls had a huge margin for error. Why should the polls ten days out not have that same margin of error?
Five substantially wrong guesses suggest a wrong view rather than a normal anomaly within statistical error.
0 -
Fiscally dry is not the description of a government which borrowed hundreds of billions more than it said it would, introduced triple lock pensions, subsidised house prices and always spent money on its vanity projects.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'd well at home in a breakaway fiscally dry, socially liberal Tory Party not obsessed about gays, Europe, and immigration.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
0 -
Arrogance destroyed him. He thought he could half-arse getting a deal with Brussels, look the British people in the eye and tell them it was great when we could all see it was nothing, slag off his own party, and still win the referendum.Philip_Thompson said:
I find it rather sad too, though I'm skeptical about whether the report is true or not. However unlike you or me, Cameron underwent a very personal defeat and lost what must have been his dream job over it in a humiliating fashion on the global scale - that will now forever define his place in history.another_richard said:
But you're not as petty and insecure as David Cameron.Cyclefree said:
I find it bizarre - and rather sad - that someone would cut out a friend over something like the EU referendum. I have plenty of friends and family who have taken different views on this topic, both from me and each other. I regard it as irrelevant to whether we will be friends.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
Or as self-entitled.
Can't say my heart goes out to him.0 -
Yes. My observations about differential turnout are based on my experience in Sindy and guesswork, not a statistical analysis.another_richard said:
One interesting thing in retrospect was the number of 'voodoo' type polls showing strongly Leave in working class areas.DavidL said:
I don't. I think that those wanting remain thought it was inconceivable that people would vote leave after Cox's death and that the pollsters deluded themselves into believing that too. On the 22nd I forecast 52:48 leave. I did so on the basis of the debate on here as much as anything. It seemed to me that the remain arguments had found no traction or persuasive power at all. No doubt I was lucky and the pollsters were just unlucky but anyone investing their hard earned on their say so needs their head examined.Wanderer said:
I think there was a slight movement back to Remain in the last 10(ish) days, but not enough obviously.DavidL said:
No they thought the trend was to remain which is why they had it ahead in 8 of the last 11 polls. They were wrong.Sean_F said:Wanderer said:Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.
One thing I would like to see is the difference in turnout for each individual area between the general election and the referendum.
0 -
Do we really think early voters would have voted any differently on the day?0
-
What no thread on GBBO? Isn't that the major news of the day?0
-
Exactly....to the letter...every instruction....and there are many.Sean_F said:
Most men I know (including me) do what their wives tell them.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
0 -
So much - this!
Sahil Oberoi: No need to panic Arsenal fans, you still have 5 matches left to ensure that you get knocked out in the last 16.0 -
- If all postal votes were cast immediately (which isn't unusual, anyway) when the Leave lead was 4.6%
- And one fifth (20%) of all votes were postal votes
- And the average final poll was for a 3.36% Remain lead (51.68:48.32)
- And the actual result was a 3.78% Leave win (51.89:48.11)
Then the error caused by the postal voting should account for slightly under a quarter of the total error.0 -
So according to your philosophy it's okay for the super rich to buy the best education at private schools but not okay for the middle-classes to have access to grammar schools.DavidL said:
Oh absolutely. But grammar schools were the private schools the middle class could not afford. They dominated them because their children came from homes where books were read, where homework was important, where ambition was encouraged. In latter times they could also afford the necessary tutoring. People who point to the odd working class exception there with a scholarship to pay for his or her uniform are guilty of either wishful thinking or deliberate blindness. They were not a ladder for more than a handful of the poor, they were an escalator built for the middle classes. And going back to that simply will not improve social mobility.Sean_F said:
But, I think there's a huge difference between the privilege you enjoy at David Cameron's level, and the privilege you enjoy at junior management, skilled craftsman level, the latter being the sort of people whose children benefitted from Grammar schools (even if the latter are much more privileged than the poor).DavidL said:
He sees grammar and private schools as means of vesting upper and middle class privilege. He is right of course.HYUFD said:
Indeed, am not sure I understand Cameron's logic in that comments which seems to be attacking both his old alma mater and grammar schools at the same time!Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
........
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.0 -
erm... you've not been involved in our fledgling party's ground game thus far have you...another_richard said:
Fiscally dry is not the description of a government which borrowed hundreds of billions more than it said it would, introduced triple lock pensions, subsidised house prices and always spent money on its vanity projects.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'd well at home in a breakaway fiscally dry, socially liberal Tory Party not obsessed about gays, Europe, and immigration.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
0 -
Surely this is a simple methodology problem. Once postal voting opens they simply need to extract some data from earlier polls and squirt it back into later ones.brokenwheel said:"My view is that the scale of early voting by post is impacting on final surveys. Many of those being sampled on June 22nd would have actually cast their postal ballots three weeks earlier which increases the possibility of them not giving an accurate response. "
I'm struggling to believe this can really account for the inaccuracy of final polls; surely this wouldn't bias one particular way, but that is what is seen in the EU ref polls?0 -
His support for increasing Overseas Aid is part of this.Sean_F said:
I think that Cameron's concern for the poor is sincere and genuine. But, he overlooks those who are not poor, but not privileged, either.another_richard said:
Cameron is the epitome of the public school Tory who opposes meritocracy through snobbishness and insecurity.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
The man who lectured the country on "Brits don't quit" has now quit both his jobs and is perhaps going to quit his country as well.
But there was always a sense of him playing at 'Lord Bountiful'.
Cameron is an interesting psychological character.
0 -
Mrs TMrs May cleaning out more of Cameron / Osborne appointments...
The head of the BBC Trust, Rona Fairhead, has resigned after Theresa May asked her to re-apply for her own £110,000-a-year post.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3787874/BBC-chairman-Rona-Fairhead-steps-down.html0 -
It's the description of TSE's personal opinion, to borrow another line from Yes Minister before it wears off:another_richard said:
Fiscally dry is not the description of a government which borrowed hundreds of billions more than it said it would, introduced triple lock pensions, subsidised house prices and always spent money on its vanity projects.TheScreamingEagles said:
He'd well at home in a breakaway fiscally dry, socially liberal Tory Party not obsessed about gays, Europe, and immigration.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheers old boy. Sounds ok to me - he's not a headbanger then. phew.JohnO said:
Current MP is David Lidington, former Europe Minister (2010-16) and now promoted to Cabinet as Leader of the House.Scrapheap_as_was said:turns out the boundary changes see me lose St Bercow and instead we get Aylesbury's... who is that I wonder.... cue a pb geek.
"Lot's of activity, but no actual achievement"0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/david-davis-admits-possibility-of-uk-exiting-eu-without-trade-deal
Hold on. WE were told the EU had to give us the single market because we were so important !
The idiots.0 -
Why is Wenger playing a second string XI this evening? Concentrating on the league already?Scrapheap_as_was said:So much - this!
Sahil Oberoi: No need to panic Arsenal fans, you still have 5 matches left to ensure that you get knocked out in the last 16.0 -
There was a late one from Survey Monkey that had a large sample size and from memory was pretty accurate, using quite different methodology to UK polls.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Survation had an eve of poll general election poll that was almost exactly right but did not publish. Had more pollsters focused only on those 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref they would also have been more accurateSpeedy said:Even though we have entered the zone of selected amnesia about polling, my opinion has not changed.
British polls continue to be unreliable and unstable, because those conducting the polls have little faith in their own results, and have to constantly shift the numbers here and there until they conform to their own personal view.0 -
Is there a betting market about it ?FrancisUrquhart said:What no thread on GBBO? Isn't that the major news of the day?
0 -
Apart from wine spillage cleaning.tyson said:
Exactly....to the letter...every instruction....and there are many.Sean_F said:
Most men I know (including me) do what their wives tell them.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
{I would add a smiley but I remember your thoughts on them}
0 -
Do we take it then that as the 23rd June approached people were becoming more IN ?Andy_Cooke said:- If all postal votes were cast immediately (which isn't unusual, anyway) when the Leave lead was 4.6%
- And one fifth (20%) of all votes were postal votes
- And the average final poll was for a 3.36% Remain lead (51.68:48.32)
- And the actual result was a 3.78% Leave win (51.89:48.11)
Then the error caused by the postal voting should account for slightly under a quarter of the total error.0 -
Its hubris followed by nemesis.Philip_Thompson said:
I find it rather sad too, though I'm skeptical about whether the report is true or not. However unlike you or me, Cameron underwent a very personal defeat and lost what must have been his dream job over it in a humiliating fashion on the global scale - that will now forever define his place in history.another_richard said:
But you're not as petty and insecure as David Cameron.Cyclefree said:
I find it bizarre - and rather sad - that someone would cut out a friend over something like the EU referendum. I have plenty of friends and family who have taken different views on this topic, both from me and each other. I regard it as irrelevant to whether we will be friends.Sean_F said:
If true, that doesn't reflect well on him.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
Or as self-entitled.
Perhaps a future playwright will write a great tragedy on Cameron's downfall.
0 -
surbiton said:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/david-davis-admits-possibility-of-uk-exiting-eu-without-trade-deal
Hold on. WE were told the EU had to give us the single market because we were so important !
The idiots.
No. Just not making the same mistake Cameron did.
0 -
It's been obvious for years that the goal is just to re-qualify for CL and bank the cash from telly and fans - great business & who needs to progress that far.. Spurs still got furthest in the CL than Arsenal most recently and we've not been in it for years!!!FrancisUrquhart said:
Why is Wenger playing a second string XI this evening? Concentrating on the league already?Scrapheap_as_was said:So much - this!
Sahil Oberoi: No need to panic Arsenal fans, you still have 5 matches left to ensure that you get knocked out in the last 16.0 -
He's saying it's not a likely outcome ...surbiton said:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/david-davis-admits-possibility-of-uk-exiting-eu-without-trade-deal
Hold on. WE were told the EU had to give us the single market because we were so important !
The idiots.0 -
I would welcome american pollsters doing polls in Britain, it will be a chance for a fresh view.JohnLilburne said:
There was a late one from Survey Monkey that had a large sample size and from memory was pretty accurate, using quite different methodology to UK polls.HYUFD said:
Indeed, Survation had an eve of poll general election poll that was almost exactly right but did not publish. Had more pollsters focused only on those 10/10 certain to vote in EU ref they would also have been more accurateSpeedy said:Even though we have entered the zone of selected amnesia about polling, my opinion has not changed.
British polls continue to be unreliable and unstable, because those conducting the polls have little faith in their own results, and have to constantly shift the numbers here and there until they conform to their own personal view.
It will be fair game since yougov is doing polls in america, with the risk of screwing it up like in Britain.0 -
How long will we have to wait for the inevitable taxpayer funded constructive dismissal case...FrancisUrquhart said:Mrs TMrs May cleaning out more of Cameron / Osborne appointments...
The head of the BBC Trust, Rona Fairhead, has resigned after Theresa May asked her to re-apply for her own £110,000-a-year post.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3787874/BBC-chairman-Rona-Fairhead-steps-down.html0 -
Not my experience at all, old chap. Might have become the case when grammar schools became rare and only to be found in certain areas, but certainly wasn't before Crossland started his work.DavidL said:
Oh absolutely. But grammar schools were the private schools the middle class could not afford. They dominated them because their children came from homes where books were read, where homework was important, where ambition was encouraged. In latter times they could also afford the necessary tutoring. People who point to the odd working class exception there with a scholarship to pay for his or her uniform are guilty of either wishful thinking or deliberate blindness. They were not a ladder for more than a handful of the poor, they were an escalator built for the middle classes. And going back to that simply will not improve social mobility.
My grammar in Battersea was mainly attended by boys from the council estates of that borough as well as Wandsworth, Clapham and Stretham. There were a few lads whose parents owned their own homes, but they were the minority and we certainly didn't have any pukka middle-class children who parents were in the professions.
So I am afraid your idea that they were an escalator for the middle classes was, at least in my day, total bollocks.
P.S. I might just add for the umpteenth time on here that I don't want to see them back (unless part of a much wider education reform - see e.g. MaxPB's ideas on here a few days ago). The reason I don't want them brought back has nothing to do with the factors you mention, but because I think to do so would be to attack the wrong problem.0 -
Love Productions is understood to have accused the BBC of “ripping off” the Bake Off format to create two new shows, involving the search for the nation’s leading amateur artist and hair stylist.
While the BBC has tried to portray the loss of the baking show as a purely financial matter, a source at the corporation said that there had been a “total breakdown of trust” between the broadcaster and the production company, which made it “impossible” to agree a deal.
It is understood that Love threatened to sue the corporation over Hair, a BBC Three programme released in early 2014 that was billed by the broadcaster as “a competition to find Britain’s best amateur hair stylist”, and was widely reported as being akin to a “Bake Off for hairdressing”. The corporation had agreed to a financial settlement with the production company, to prevent the case going to court.
Barely a year later, the corporation was accused of attempting a similar move over the BBC One show, The Big Painting Challenge, presented by Richard Bacon and Una Stubbs. The broadcaster billed the programme as a “nationwide search for Britain’s best amateur artist”, which Love again complained bore all the hallmarks of its own baking show.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/sue-perkins-and-mel-giedroyc-to-step-down-as-great-british-bake/
Didn't SeanT once accuse them of nicking an idea he pitched to them?0 -
Three possible outcomes:FrancisUrquhart said:What no thread on GBBO? Isn't that the major news of the day?
All presenters quit, leaving C4 with a dead duck and an immediate halving of viewing figures
BBC reboot something with original presenting team
Outside chance - backlash/negative PR/all presenters quitting leads to C4 deal falling apart
Tbh, if C4 were stupid enough to pay £25m without ensuring the presenters were signed up, then hell mend them.0 -
Ah yes! My wife does insist that after all this time I should be able to read her mind.Cyclefree said:
I wonder what the wives of the most men you know would say.........Sean_F said:
Most men I know (including me) do what their wives tell them.Cyclefree said:FPT: @HurstLlama:-
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
Also, having to tell others to do something is tiresome. It would be nice if men realized that something needed doing and did it without being asked/told/ordered to do it.0 -
I think Cox's death may even have helped Leave as it shut down campaigning for several days at a point when Leave was probably ahead. Who knows.DavidL said:
I don't. I think that those wanting remain thought it was inconceivable that people would vote leave after Cox's death and that the pollsters deluded themselves into believing that too. On the 22nd I forecast 52:48 leave. I did so on the basis of the debate on here as much as anything. It seemed to me that the remain arguments had found no traction or persuasive power at all. No doubt I was lucky and the pollsters were just unlucky but anyone investing their hard earned on their say so needs their head examined.Wanderer said:
I think there was a slight movement back to Remain in the last 10(ish) days, but not enough obviously.DavidL said:
No they thought the trend was to remain which is why they had it ahead in 8 of the last 11 polls. They were wrong.Sean_F said:Wanderer said:Hi. Hope everyone on here is well.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
They got the trend right, which was relentlessly towards Leave, from Autumn 2015.DavidL said:So we are abandoning the last minute swing excuse and moving onto, well they had already voted excuse. I take Mikes point that the traditional last poll is perhaps not a fair test when so many people vote 2 or 3 weeks in advance but the polling should surely pick this up. It should be a part of the adjustments to the final poll. To say that ICM did well because they stopped 10 days early is a cop out.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.
It's probably asking too much of polls for them to accurately track small movements from week to week. Overall, throughout the last month, they gave the impression that the referendum was extremely close, which it was.0 -
TBH, from link I gave it sounds like there has been a big bust up over a number of years...However, sounds like a balls up all round.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Three possible outcomes:FrancisUrquhart said:What no thread on GBBO? Isn't that the major news of the day?
All presenters quit, leaving C4 with a dead duck and an immediate halving of viewing figures
BBC reboot something with original presenting team
Outside chance - backlash/negative PR/all presenters quitting leads to C4 deal falling apart
Tbh, if C4 were stupid enough to pay £25m without ensuring the presenters were signed up, then hell mend them.
BBC not to secure the rights way in advance, with an attitude of their unwritten rule of programmes aren't allowed to leave the BBC. And CH4 not to secure that their deal was on the basis of getting the presenters.
As for a reboot on BBC, given Love Productions have already sued them once and got a settlement, I am sure they will do it again.0 -
He's saying it also could happen. A far cry from the arrogance preceding the vote.Philip_Thompson said:
He's saying it's not a likely outcome ...surbiton said:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/david-davis-admits-possibility-of-uk-exiting-eu-without-trade-deal
Hold on. WE were told the EU had to give us the single market because we were so important !
The idiots.0 -
FILTNY.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
I, of course, only moved from London to New York because my American wife wanted to go back.0 -
They are rather good at getting you to spend hours helping them and providing them with material then neglecting to mention it in the programme credits, something I had personal experience of some years ago.FrancisUrquhart said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/sue-perkins-and-mel-giedroyc-to-step-down-as-great-british-bake/
Didn't SeanT once accuse them of nicking an idea he pitched to them?
Wouldnt touch them with a bargepole.0 -
Not that far ... certainly not as far as all the immediate Chicken Licken predictions that have come to naught so far.surbiton said:
He's saying it also could happen. A far cry from the arrogance preceding the vote.Philip_Thompson said:
He's saying it's not a likely outcome ...surbiton said:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/13/david-davis-admits-possibility-of-uk-exiting-eu-without-trade-deal
Hold on. WE were told the EU had to give us the single market because we were so important !
The idiots.0 -
What a petty-minded man he is if those reports are true.HYUFD said:Daily Mail reports the Camerons may be set to move to Manhattan after a British writer recently returned from the city was hosted at Chequers and Sam Cam was 'grilling the writer’s companion about life in Manhattan and where the best districts were to live.' She will focus on her fashion label while he writes his memoirs and joins the lecture circuit.
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD0 -
Grammar schools were also great for the children of immigrants. Mine was around a third Indian and a fifth other Asian. I'd say it was about 50/50 white British to non-white British. Speaking as the latter it was the only way I would ever have been able to get such a quality education. I got into a private school but my parents weren't able to work out the bursary in time and they could never have afforded the fees (~£4k per term iirc) without one.DavidL said:Oh absolutely. But grammar schools were the private schools the middle class could not afford. They dominated them because their children came from homes where books were read, where homework was important, where ambition was encouraged. In latter times they could also afford the necessary tutoring. People who point to the odd working class exception there with a scholarship to pay for his or her uniform are guilty of either wishful thinking or deliberate blindness. They were not a ladder for more than a handful of the poor, they were an escalator built for the middle classes. And going back to that simply will not improve social mobility.
There needs to be a type of schooling that recognises and nurtures academic excellence outside of the fee paying sector. Grammar schools are part of the answer.0
