Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widel

13

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840
    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight: atleast one Tory minister has vowed not to vote for the boundary changes ("pencilled in a bout of flu for the day of the vote").

    Seems a bit cowardly - hopefully they'll have the guts to be open about voting against when the time comes.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    If it's not going to be released by Hillary then it's probably bad.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
  • Given this vote on boundary changes isn't until at least 2018, there is a long way to go.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour targets in England and Wales using UKPR/Anthony Wells notionals:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10EJPl37xhc_B_TkHObNrahfzZBCFU4TW8MM_QB3PaXE/edit#gid=0

    If those targets are correct Labour would need a repeat of 1997 to get the slimmest of majorities.
    They'd have to do better than 1997. I cannot conceive of why the necessary numbers of Conservative voters would defect to Labour under current circumstances, or those likely to be prevailing come the next election.
  • "In 24h we will release 30 pages of our editor (Julian Assange)'s medical records as part 1 of our transparency challenge to Clinton & Trump."

    LOL as if either campaign gives a s##t about how ill Assange may or may not be...However, what they will be concerned about is what has he got tucked away in his filing cabinet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good to see Lionel Shriver sticking two fingers up at identity politics on Newsnight.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2016
    Speedy said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    If it's not going to be released by Hillary then it's probably bad.
    If the records are from before Friday’s bout of Pneumonia, it will be a clean bill of health?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Both campaigns say they will release more health info in the next few days, and I am sure they will be dull as dishwasher.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,866
    edited September 2016

    "In 24h we will release 30 pages of our editor (Julian Assange)'s medical records as part 1 of our transparency challenge to Clinton & Trump."

    LOL as if either campaign gives a s##t about how ill Assange may or may not be...However, what they will be concerned about is what has he got tucked away in his filing cabinet.

    He's such an attention seeking wazzock.

    Page 1 - antibiotics for the clap
    Page 2 - antibiotics for the clap
    Page 3 - sustained cuts from falling into mirror whilst admiring own reflection
    Page 4 - treated for blisters caused by running away from the Peelers into nearest Embassy

    and so on, and so forth...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Given this vote on boundary changes isn't until at least 2018, there is a long way to go.

    Very true. Hopefully May can find enough alternative safe seats for the displaced to keep the reforms on track, but I'm still not as confident about boundary change clearing the Commons as I am about grammar schools (where a meaningful amount of support could be scraped together from amongst the other parties.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,840

    "In 24h we will release 30 pages of our editor (Julian Assange)'s medical records as part 1 of our transparency challenge to Clinton & Trump."

    LOL as if either campaign gives a s##t about how ill Assange may or may not be...However, what they will be concerned about is what has he got tucked away in his filing cabinet.

    He's such an attention seeking wazzock.

    Page 1 - antibiotics for the clap
    Page 2 - antibiotics for the clap
    Page 3 - sustained cuts from falling into mirror whilst admiring own reflection
    Page 4 - treated for blisters caused by running away from the Peelers into nearest Embassy

    and so on, and so forth...
    He also has vitamin D deficiency forced on him by his 'arbitrary detention', as the UN term his 'not at all detainment and that's the whole point'. Poor dear.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2016
    Something tells me this factored into Cameron resigning yesterday:
    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/775806768446316544

    It took Chilcot 10 years for his report and 13 years after Iraq, so to learn some of the truth 5 years after Libya is still a plus.
  • Speedy said:

    Something tells me this factored into Cameron resigning yesterday:

    It took Chilcot 10 years for his report and 13 years after Iraq, so to learn some of the truth 5 years after Libya is still a plus.

    Not good news for Clinton either if the US press are paying attention.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shock — the new Southport seat would have voted as follows:

    Con: 16,575
    LD: 13,730
    Lab: 10,300
    UKIP: 8,593
    Green: 1,230
    Others: 992

    It takes the following wards from South Ribble: Hesketh-with-Becconsall, North Meols, Tarleton.

    That's a lot of anti-Tory Labour to squeeze though.
    Depends on enough of the remaining Labour vote not belonging to one of the following categories:

    1.

    That's a lot of Labour voters who won't be available to help close the gap.
    If John Pugh is the LibDem candidate, I think they'd stand
    This is part of the reason why my view of the LDs prospects in the next GE is so pessimistic: the additional difficulty they have in challenging without the incumbency advantage. Your assessment of Southport seems sound, but also what about Clegg in Sheffield Hallam - up against a notional Labour majority of 4,000 and doubtless a very determined campaign to finish him off this time, do you think he'll have the fight left in him?

    If they can't make any gains then that would leave them down to their last six seats: four remaining notional majorities, plus Brake and Mulholland incumbent in close marginals.
    OK. I think the LibDems will get about 12% in 2020, up from 8% last time.

    I think they'll win:

    * 2-3 seats in South West London, where there were big Remain votes.
    * Cambridge, where the seat has become rather less Labour friendly.
    * Edinburgh West and North East Fife, where they comfortably gained the Holyrood seats from the SNP.

    Then probably four to six of their existing seats, and maybe a couple elsewhere which gets to my 10-14 seats forecast.
    Well, my recollection is you called their 2015 performance better than most, so everyone listen to rcs!

    I'm quite interested in my proposed parliamentary seat in the review, as it includes several LD inclined areas that made up part of a LD seat lost in 2015, and divests itself of quite a bit of prime Tory rural heartland. I doubt it would make it competitive for the LDs, but I can see the notional Tory majority being quite a bit less than now.
    I was by far the most bearish person on here, and I still wasn't bearish enough. (My friend in Cambridge Labour kept assuring me that they were going to get creamed by Julian Huppert!)
    In May 2015 I did well on the seats market by betting on the principal challenger to the LDs in all their seats. I lost on 8 but won on many more. A similar strategy paid off well on UKIP too.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Something tells me this factored into Cameron resigning yesterday:

    It took Chilcot 10 years for his report and 13 years after Iraq, so to learn some of the truth 5 years after Libya is still a plus.

    Not good news for Clinton either if the US press are paying attention.
    I remember the press reports from the time, about Hillary and Samantha Power barging into the oval office, kicking and screaming to Obama to invade Libya right away.
  • BBC - A British man accused of trying to shoot US presidential candidate Donald Trump has pleaded guilty to some of the charges he faced. - He pleaded guilty to being an illegal alien in possession of a firearm and disrupting an official function.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-37357350
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,503
    edited September 2016

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT: @HurstLlama:-

    "But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).

    So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"

    Well, I wish I were married to you! :)

    However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.

    I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.

    But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.

    Ah, well, planning and thinking ahead about what needs to be done/bought; well, that is Herself's job. Not for any sexist reasons, you understand, it is just that when I have tried to anticipate I have usually ended up getting told off. Much better and safer to do what I am told.

    As Mr. F upthread confirms, most husbands do as they are told. We find it easier and more harmonious that way. Also we can't get shouted at for forgetting something if we haven't been told to do it or buy it. "Was that on the list, darling?"
    You are making an excellent case for women running the world!

    We think, we plan, we give orders, we can even read your minds even if (pace @MrTimT) you cannot read ours.

    Now: about that Witney constituency.......
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited September 2016
    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    "No one cares about journalism, but that same dismal class discrepancy is to be found across all the professions, politics and even the starry firmament of light entertainment. Turning to the shadow cabinet, we find the comic spectacle of a group of Labour politicians who still believe in the comprehensive system, much as early man believed the Earth was flat. People like Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott are violently opposed to Mrs May’s grammar-school revival, though they dare not say so because – guess what? – they went to grammar schools, which got them where they are today".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016

    BBC - A British man accused of trying to shoot US presidential candidate Donald Trump has pleaded guilty to some of the charges he faced. - He pleaded guilty to being an illegal alien in possession of a firearm and disrupting an official function.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-37357350

    Interested to how / why he was an illegal alien...did he not fill an ESTA and smuggled himself in from Canada / Mexico? Or stayed in US for a long time after entering as a tourist?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight: atleast one Tory minister has vowed not to vote for the boundary changes ("pencilled in a bout of flu for the day of the vote").

    I'm guessing one of the several who voted against last time, so not that bad.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
  • BBC - A British man accused of trying to shoot US presidential candidate Donald Trump has pleaded guilty to some of the charges he faced. - He pleaded guilty to being an illegal alien in possession of a firearm and disrupting an official function.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-37357350

    Interested to how / why he was an illegal alien...did he not fill an ESTA and smuggled himself in from Canada / Mexico? Or stayed in US for a long time after entering as a tourist?
    Does seem rather odd – however, all the papers I've seen have copied the same news release, questions as to how he got to LA or why he should be considered an illegal alien are ignored.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    I've been running the betas and it's been pretty good so far, nothing more major than the screen rotate getting stuck on the iPad for an hour. Now on the production versions with no issues. Always back up device to a computer first and download the updates through iTunes though, doing them online adds more variables to the process.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MP_SE said:

    nunu said:

    kjohnw said:

    Wasn't there a poll just before referendum carried out at ten thousand atm machines that got the result almost spot on ? Maybe that's the way of the future for better sampling

    Yes it said 52-48 for Leave which was spot on.
    Can you remember who commissioned the poll?
    http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/22/the-companies-using-new-methods-to-poll-the-eu-referendum/

    Cardtronics
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    MP_SE said:

    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
    Only if its genuine but how do you prove it isn't. One of the key points of a front operation like this is that it can mix information with disinformation. Build some cred, spread some rumours. Its out of the Introduction to Propaganda manual.

    If enough people believe the disinformation, job done.

    There is an obvious implication in the Assange cult nonsense about releasing his records.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    MP_SE said:

    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
    If he's got medical records, in breach of numerous laws, he's probably spending the rest of his life in the Ecuadorian Embassy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
    If he's got medical records, in breach of numerous laws, he's probably spending the rest of his life in the Ecuadorian Embassy.
    Isn't he already doing that?

    Also, I am guessing that the same people who backed him over previous leaks of information with public interest defence would have a hard time limbo dancing that such info on POTUS candidates is then wrong.

    Is interesting how he has gone from the selfless truth teller among the liberal media with the US military stuff to be persona non grata over the Clinton / DNC stuff.

    Personally if I had classified info that I thought needed to be leaked I wouldn't be wanting to go anywhere near him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
    If he's got medical records, in breach of numerous laws, he's probably spending the rest of his life in the Ecuadorian Embassy.
    Didn't stop him releasing the other files.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Cyclefree said:




    Now: about that Witney constituency.......

    You'd be an... entertaining addition to the House - go for it!
  • Talking of updates breaking stuff. F##king Chrome...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    Y0kel said:

    MP_SE said:

    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
    Only if its genuine but how do you prove it isn't. One of the key points of a front operation like this is that it can mix information with disinformation. Build some cred, spread some rumours. Its out of the Introduction to Propaganda manual.

    If enough people believe the disinformation, job done.

    There is an obvious implication in the Assange cult nonsense about releasing his records.
    Yes, the first Guccifer leak had several documents edited before release. It's pretty clear that the Russians are beginning to l flex their muscles
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591

    Sandpit said:

    MP_SE said:

    Speedy said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a rumour that Hillary Clinton's medical records are going to get released in the next 24-28 hours and not by Clinton campaign.

    Guess which fantastic organ apparently has them....

    On another note, in Europe there is what can be best described as a hell of a lot of terror and anti-terror activity. IS inspired/directed bods are getting compromised and IS knows it so its desperately trying to get its operatives to act.

    So far ain't working out to well but they will get a shot in and don't forget Al Qaeda either, especially around these parts. They'd really like to get a hit in.

    There's another Gufficer data dump just now according to Wikileaks
    They've just posted a link to the raw data which seems to be an archive of DNC material. No idea what's in it.
    According to y0kel's hints, Hillary's medical records should be somewhere there.
    Assange was saying that he had dirt on Clinton which would finish her political career. I am sure we will know shortly whether he was telling the truth or talking out his arse.
    If he's got medical records, in breach of numerous laws, he's probably spending the rest of his life in the Ecuadorian Embassy.
    Isn't he already doing that?

    Also, I am guessing that the same people who backed him over previous leaks of information with public interest defence would have a hard time limbo dancing that such info on POTUS candidates is then wrong.

    Is interesting how he has gone from the selfless truth teller among the liberal media with the US military stuff to be persona non grata over the Clinton / DNC stuff.

    Personally if I had classified info that I thought needed to be leaked I wouldn't be wanting to go anywhere near him.
    Paradoxically, the worse for Hillary the details Assange releases, the better defence he'll have as to the public interest.
    There's clearly a public interest in exposing that a Presidential nominee is terminally ill with months to live. Exposing that she's had a boob job and pneumonia for months rather than days, is only going to get the exposer in trouble.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591

    Cyclefree said:




    Now: about that Witney constituency.......

    You'd be an... entertaining addition to the House - go for it!
    Seconded.

    And Nick, are you thinking of standing again for the revised Broxtowe? I'm a Tory member who'd vote for you over Anna Sourpuss.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Yes, the first Guccifer leak had several documents edited before release. It's pretty clear that the Russians are beginning to l flex their muscles

    It was really dumb of Western intelligence services to think they could try to manipulate democracy in Russia/countries important to Russia without considering that the same tactics could be successfully used in reverse.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sandpit said:

    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    "No one cares about journalism, but that same dismal class discrepancy is to be found across all the professions, politics and even the starry firmament of light entertainment. Turning to the shadow cabinet, we find the comic spectacle of a group of Labour politicians who still believe in the comprehensive system, much as early man believed the Earth was flat. People like Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott are violently opposed to Mrs May’s grammar-school revival, though they dare not say so because – guess what? – they went to grammar schools, which got them where they are today".

    They live in a fantasy world where the choice is between selective schools and comprehensive schools, whereas in the real world the choice is between selection by ability to buy a property in the catchment area of a successful school and selection by ability to pay for private education.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shock — the new Southport seat would have voted as follows:

    Con: 16,575
    LD: 13,730
    Lab: 10,300
    UKIP: 8,593
    Green: 1,230
    Others: 992

    It takes the following wards from South Ribble: Hesketh-with-Becconsall, North Meols, Tarleton.

    That's a lot of anti-Tory Labour to squeeze though.
    Depends on enough of the remaining Labour vote not belonging to one of the following categories:

    1. People looking for a credible PM who weren't put off Miliband, but would pick May over Corbyn
    2. Traditional WWC Labour voters who tolerated Miliband, but for whom Corbyn is the last straw, and who decide to stay at home or vote either Tory or Ukip
    3. People who are hard Left/like Corbyn, and therefore have no intention of ditching Labour
    4. Tribal/habit Labour voters who would never think of voting any other way, regardless of circumstances
    5. Lefties who don't think much of Labour, but have permanently abandoned the Lib Dems over the Coalition and would rather stay at home, or maybe vote Green

    That's a lot of Labour voters who won't be available to help close the gap.
    If John Pugh is the LibDem candidate, I think they'd stand a chance.

    But he's 68 right now and will be 71 in 2020. I suspect he'll step down, and I suspect it'll be a comfortable Conservative hold. Without Pugh, the LibDems may drop to third or fourth.
    OK. I think the LibDems will get about 12% in 2020, up from 8% last time.

    I think they'll win:

    * 2-3 seats in South West London, where there were big Remain votes.
    * Cambridge, where the seat has become rather less Labour friendly.
    * Edinburgh West and North East Fife, where they comfortably gained the Holyrood seats from the SNP.

    Then probably four to six of their existing seats, and maybe a couple elsewhere which gets to my 10-14 seats forecast.
    I think Labour will hold Cambridge - local election results certainly suggest that. First time incumbency should help them . Also in 2015 , given that Labour was challenging from third place , there will have been some doubt as to who was the most effective anti - Tory candidate to support, and I suspect that some Labour voters will have erroneously voted Huppert on the basis of general expectations. I don't think those voters will feel quite so confused next time.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Those Wikileaks dumps are also a remarkably good way to spread malware.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shock — the new Southport seat would have voted as follows:

    Con: 16,575
    LD: 13,730
    Lab: 10,300
    UKIP: 8,593
    Green: 1,230
    Others: 992

    It takes the following wards from South Ribble: Hesketh-with-Becconsall, North Meols, Tarleton.

    That's a lot of anti-Tory Labour to squeeze though.
    Depends on enough of the remaining Labour vote not belonging to one of the following categories:

    1. People looking for a credible PM who weren't put off Miliband, but would pick May over Corbyn
    2. Traditional WWC Labour voters who tolerated Miliband, but for whom Corbyn is the last straw, and who decide to stay at home or vote either Tory or Ukip
    3. People who are hard Left/like Corbyn, and therefore have no intention of ditching Labour
    4. Tribal/habit Labour voters who would never think of voting any other way, regardless of circumstances
    5. Lefties who don't think much of Labour, but have permanently abandoned the Lib Dems over the Coalition and would rather stay at home, or maybe vote Green

    That's a lot of Labour voters who won't be available to help close the gap.
    If John Pugh is the LibDem candidate, I think they'd stand a chance.

    But he's 68 right now and will be 71 in 2020. I suspect he'll step down, and I suspect it'll be a comfortable Conservative hold. Without Pugh, the LibDems may drop to third or fourth.
    Southport looks like ground zero in the next election, 4 parties within 8000 votes, they will bury the place in leaflets.
    Four way marginals will be the LDs (and UKIP's) best hope for gains, because the winning vote share is likely to be relatively low.
    I agree with rcs1000 about Pugh retiring. Looks to be a nailed on LD loss.

    Norman Lamb maybe another retirement. 62 in 2020.
    I think Lamb will stick around; I think being a LibDem MP is his life.

    If Mark Williams, the MP for Ceredgion, were to step down (which I think is probable/possible), then I think Ceredgion and North Pembrokshire would likely fall to Plaid/Con.
    I doubt it. It would remain a LibDem/Plaid contest whatever.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,591
    edited September 2016
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Newsnight: atleast one Tory minister has vowed not to vote for the boundary changes ("pencilled in a bout of flu for the day of the vote").

    I'm guessing one of the several who voted against last time, so not that bad.
    As I've been saying all day on the boundaries issue, the Tory whips have got two years to square the circle, but the various carrots on offer will become big sticks to anyone who doesn't get with the program for the final vote in 2018. It's going to be considered by May as a vote of confidence, no excuses, turn up or have the whip withdrawn and be deselected. The reduction in MP numbers was in the manifesto.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Of course if you remove the 6 Yougov polls a different picture is presented.

    PS - National Polls now coming out showing effect of the Clinton Collapse. Full effect won't be known for a couple of days as all are covering periods before and after so far.
  • http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html

    Poll showing Maine within margin of error between Clinton and Trump.

    Obama won the state 56%-41% versus Romney...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html

    Poll showing Maine within margin of error between Clinton and Trump.

    Obama won the state 56%-41% versus Romney...

    I do not believe that Donald Trump will win Maine.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    rcs1000 said:

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html

    Poll showing Maine within margin of error between Clinton and Trump.

    Obama won the state 56%-41% versus Romney...

    I do not believe that Donald Trump will win Maine.
    There have been some close polls earlier.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Fox
    Key points from @realDonaldTrump’s childcare proposals: https://t.co/F3zJ4Filnw
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    weejonnie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html

    Poll showing Maine within margin of error between Clinton and Trump.

    Obama won the state 56%-41% versus Romney...

    I do not believe that Donald Trump will win Maine.
    There have been some close polls earlier.
    It'd be landslide territory for Trump if he wins Maine.
  • AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    Who needs a taxi when you can make do with a tandem? :lol:
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Gabriel Debendetti
    The evidence keeps piling up that the Clinton camp isn't scared — eager, even — to have the "deplorables" fight now. https://t.co/WA57oKhYo0
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited September 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Gabriel Debendetti
    The evidence keeps piling up that the Clinton camp isn't scared — eager, even — to have the "deplorables" fight now. https://t.co/WA57oKhYo0

    Well it will keep the focus off the health issue. Dead cat and all that.
  • Another 6 Golds for Team GB in Paralympics. It feels like them doing even better than 4 years ago is getting overshadowed this time around.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
    We'll get a good indication in 2018 whether you or I is likely to be proved right.

    My view is:

    1. The LibDems dominate the council, and remained strong there even in 2014 when they were wiped out in other places.
    2. It was one of the heaviest Remain voting constituencies in the UK.
    3. Vince had the second highest swing against him of any incumbent LibDem MP
    4. The Tories will have just greenlighted Heathrow expansion.
    5. The LibDems will be polling 12% in 2020 rather than 8%.

    I think that points to a LibDem gain.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    PlatoSaid said:

    Gabriel Debendetti
    The evidence keeps piling up that the Clinton camp isn't scared — eager, even — to have the "deplorables" fight now. https://t.co/WA57oKhYo0

    Well it will keep the focus off the health issue. Dead cat and all that.
    It's their philosophy of screaming 'racist' at anything they don't like - they haven't worked out yet that people are starting to laugh at them.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Fox
    Key points from @realDonaldTrump’s childcare proposals: https://t.co/F3zJ4Filnw

    So the Donald has a magic money tree too! (or the Trump foundation will pay, maybe. or, Mexico, I guess)
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    Who needs a taxi when you can make do with a tandem? :lol:
    Knowing that party they would not even need a tandem. :blush:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I hope they do win a few seats back, although I'd prefer them to be of the Norman Lamb school rather than the Tim Farron.
  • AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    "No one cares about journalism, but that same dismal class discrepancy is to be found across all the professions, politics and even the starry firmament of light entertainment. Turning to the shadow cabinet, we find the comic spectacle of a group of Labour politicians who still believe in the comprehensive system, much as early man believed the Earth was flat. People like Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott are violently opposed to Mrs May’s grammar-school revival, though they dare not say so because – guess what? – they went to grammar schools, which got them where they are today".

    They live in a fantasy world where the choice is between selective schools and comprehensive schools, whereas in the real world the choice is between selection by ability to buy a property in the catchment area of a successful school and selection by ability to pay for private education.
    Moving to the catchment areas of successful schools -- these will be comprehensive schools, no?
  • rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
    We'll get a good indication in 2018 whether you or I is likely to be proved right.
    My view is:
    1. The LibDems dominate the council, and remained strong there even in 2014 when they were wiped out in other places.
    2. It was one of the heaviest Remain voting constituencies in the UK.
    3. Vince had the second highest swing against him of any incumbent LibDem MP
    4. The Tories will have just greenlighted Heathrow expansion.
    5. The LibDems will be polling 12% in 2020 rather than 8%.
    I think that points to a LibDem gain.
    The Conservative MP will have the first time incumbent uplift at the next GE.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    edited September 2016

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    "No one cares about journalism, but that same dismal class discrepancy is to be found across all the professions, politics and even the starry firmament of light entertainment. Turning to the shadow cabinet, we find the comic spectacle of a group of Labour politicians who still believe in the comprehensive system, much as early man believed the Earth was flat. People like Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbott are violently opposed to Mrs May’s grammar-school revival, though they dare not say so because – guess what? – they went to grammar schools, which got them where they are today".

    They live in a fantasy world where the choice is between selective schools and comprehensive schools, whereas in the real world the choice is between selection by ability to buy a property in the catchment area of a successful school and selection by ability to pay for private education.
    Moving to the catchment areas of successful schools -- these will be comprehensive schools, no?
    All comps are equal, but some are more equal than others. That said, one good thing about going to a comp as I did is that the wasters have no comeback on those of us who bothered to work at school. We all had the same education (supposedly) so if they are unemployable that's their problem.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Zach Hellar
    UNREAL
    #DNCleak shows MASSIVE #PayToPlay ledger
    An ambassadorship can be yours..
    If the price is right
    #NeverHillary https://t.co/FMaMFwxZwV
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
    We'll get a good indication in 2018 whether you or I is likely to be proved right.
    My view is:
    1. The LibDems dominate the council, and remained strong there even in 2014 when they were wiped out in other places.
    2. It was one of the heaviest Remain voting constituencies in the UK.
    3. Vince had the second highest swing against him of any incumbent LibDem MP
    4. The Tories will have just greenlighted Heathrow expansion.
    5. The LibDems will be polling 12% in 2020 rather than 8%.
    I think that points to a LibDem gain.
    The Conservative MP will have the first time incumbent uplift at the next GE.
    No matter how Tania votes, she'll be tarred by her government's Heathrow decision. I reckon that'll outweigh any first term incumbency bonus.
  • Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    PlatoSaid said:

    Zach Hellar
    UNREAL
    #DNCleak shows MASSIVE #PayToPlay ledger
    An ambassadorship can be yours..
    If the price is right
    #NeverHillary https://t.co/FMaMFwxZwV

    Does this mean that our Hillary has been selling ambassadorships? Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited September 2016
    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    They live in a fantasy world where the choice is between selective schools and comprehensive schools, whereas in the real world the choice is between selection by ability to buy a property in the catchment area of a successful school and selection by ability to pay for private education.
    Moving to the catchment areas of successful schools -- these will be comprehensive schools, no?
    All comps are equal, but some are more equal than others. That said, one good thing about going to a comp as I did is that the wasters have no comeback on those of us who bothered to work at school. We all had the same education (supposedly) so if they are unemployable that's their problem.
    The problem with comprehensives is that the wasters are in big enough numbers to influence the school culture and ruin it for everyone.

    That said the 11 plus is too blunt. A promotion and reiegation system in subsequent years is needed.

    Another side to this is that it is in the tory party interest to bring back grammar schools as just as broadly speaking home owners are tories vs renters who tend to vote labour....

    So grammar school pupils, schooled in a culture of excellence and striving to succeed tend to be tories so the outputs of Marxist Treason Factories Comprehensives are liable to vote Labour.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited September 2016
    MikeK said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Zach Hellar
    UNREAL
    #DNCleak shows MASSIVE #PayToPlay ledger
    An ambassadorship can be yours..
    If the price is right
    #NeverHillary https://t.co/FMaMFwxZwV

    Does this mean that our Hillary has been selling ambassadorships? Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
    IIRC It's the SoS that appts them - so yes apparently. Makes Baagoyavitch [sp] look pretty average for trying to sell Obama's Illinois seat :wink:

    $2.5m for Japan
  • AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    Who needs a taxi when you can make do with a tandem? :lol:
    That's why UKIP are doing so badly, Carswell has to use a Unicycle.
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Zach Hellar
    UNREAL
    #DNCleak shows MASSIVE #PayToPlay ledger
    An ambassadorship can be yours..
    If the price is right
    #NeverHillary https://t.co/FMaMFwxZwV

    Yes, I'd be shocked too if it hadn't always been standard American practice for their ambassadors to be appointed from celebrities and supporters (itself a euphemism). Shirley Temple never did a film about the diplomatic corps.
  • Higher proportion of psycopaths in boardrooms than prisons:

    http://dailym.ai/2clxV1j
  • Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers

    "incredibly hot morning"

    Ha! I'm not sure where you are, but in this part of West Yorkshire it's decidedly cool, damp and autumnal.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers

    "incredibly hot morning"

    Ha! I'm not sure where you are, but in this part of West Yorkshire it's decidedly cool, damp and autumnal.
    25.6C in my front room - windows open and fan churning air all night... :weary:
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    The knives are truly out for Cameron now. Surely the Libyan fiasco will only be the start of major revelations about our beloved Cammo.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37356873

    It's also The Times headline. :)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MikeK said:

    The knives are truly out for Cameron now. Surely the Libyan fiasco will only be the start of major revelations about our beloved Cammo.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37356873

    It's also The Times headline. :)

    I feel it's all rather unfair to single him out - but maybe I'm wrong here. I thought he announced his immediate resignation to coincide with the boundary changes - now I see there was another reason...
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
    We'll get a good indication in 2018 whether you or I is likely to be proved right.
    My view is:
    1. The LibDems dominate the council, and remained strong there even in 2014 when they were wiped out in other places.
    2. It was one of the heaviest Remain voting constituencies in the UK.
    3. Vince had the second highest swing against him of any incumbent LibDem MP
    4. The Tories will have just greenlighted Heathrow expansion.
    5. The LibDems will be polling 12% in 2020 rather than 8%.
    I think that points to a LibDem gain.
    The Conservative MP will have the first time incumbent uplift at the next GE.
    No matter how Tania votes, she'll be tarred by her government's Heathrow decision. I reckon that'll outweigh any first term incumbency bonus.
    She seems to be a perfectly lovely lady, but also wetter than a fish's wet bits.

    I'm not sure about Twickenham. The LD base looks much higher than it probably is due to a personal vote for Cable, who won't be in the running next time.
  • Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers

    "incredibly hot morning"

    Ha! I'm not sure where you are, but in this part of West Yorkshire it's decidedly cool, damp and autumnal.
    At the moment Hampstead - well actually under hampstead on my way from Bedfordshire to the City
  • PlatoSaid said:

    Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers

    "incredibly hot morning"

    Ha! I'm not sure where you are, but in this part of West Yorkshire it's decidedly cool, damp and autumnal.
    25.6C in my front room - windows open and fan churning air all night... :weary:
    Wow ..... that sounds like a different world. Last night's heavy thunderstorm killed the high temperatures and saturated everywhere. This morning it's currently 14C and we have heavy dark clouds overhead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
    We'll get a good indication in 2018 whether you or I is likely to be proved right.
    My view is:
    1. The LibDems dominate the council, and remained strong there even in 2014 when they were wiped out in other places.
    2. It was one of the heaviest Remain voting constituencies in the UK.
    3. Vince had the second highest swing against him of any incumbent LibDem MP
    4. The Tories will have just greenlighted Heathrow expansion.
    5. The LibDems will be polling 12% in 2020 rather than 8%.
    I think that points to a LibDem gain.
    The Conservative MP will have the first time incumbent uplift at the next GE.
    No matter how Tania votes, she'll be tarred by her government's Heathrow decision. I reckon that'll outweigh any first term incumbency bonus.
    She seems to be a perfectly lovely lady, but also wetter than a fish's wet bits.

    I'm not sure about Twickenham. The LD base looks much higher than it probably is due to a personal vote for Cable, who won't be in the running next time.
    Except that Dr Vince Cable had the second highest swing against him of any LibDem incumbent. And Twickenham was one of only three constituencies (Eastleigh and Eastbourne were the others) where there was a more than 15% difference between local election results and the General.
  • Reason

    PlatoSaid said:

    Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers

    "incredibly hot morning"

    Ha! I'm not sure where you are, but in this part of West Yorkshire it's decidedly cool, damp and autumnal.
    25.6C in my front room - windows open and fan churning air all night... :weary:
    Wow ..... that sounds like a different world. Last night's heavy thunderstorm killed the high temperatures and saturated everywhere. This morning it's currently 14C and we have heavy dark clouds overhead.
    Be glad you are not actually in Putney!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    Good morning all, on this incredibly hot September morning

    I see the same thread is still going and so is Junckers

    Junckers is in his job until the Spanish (re-)elect a PP-led government, and the balance of EU leaders moves decisively against him.

    When the leaders of France, Germany, Spain and Italy (as well as Poland and a bunch of other countries) say "Go!", you're dead meat.

    His temporary reprieve is the result of (a) Hollande and Renzo being otherwise disposed, and (b) Spain not having a government.

  • Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    They live in a fantasy world where the choice is between selective schools and comprehensive schools, whereas in the real world the choice is between selection by ability to buy a property in the catchment area of a successful school and selection by ability to pay for private education.
    Moving to the catchment areas of successful schools -- these will be comprehensive schools, no?
    All comps are equal, but some are more equal than others. That said, one good thing about going to a comp as I did is that the wasters have no comeback on those of us who bothered to work at school. We all had the same education (supposedly) so if they are unemployable that's their problem.
    The problem with comprehensives is that the wasters are in big enough numbers to influence the school culture and ruin it for everyone.

    That said the 11 plus is too blunt. A promotion and reiegation system in subsequent years is needed.

    Another side to this is that it is in the tory party interest to bring back grammar schools as just as broadly speaking home owners are tories vs renters who tend to vote labour....

    So grammar school pupils, schooled in a culture of excellence and striving to succeed tend to be tories so the outputs of Marxist Treason Factories Comprehensives are liable to vote Labour.
    Exactly: the grammar school system of the 1950 to 1975 period didn't work. But that doesn't mean there aren't things we can take from it.
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Difficult to believe the LDs would be down to two seats in England under these proposals, in North Norfolk and Westmorland & Lonsdale.

    I think Twickenham will be a LibDem gain (assuming that Vince isn't standing again). The London 2018 local elections should give us a good insight into whether there will be an LD revival in the capital.
    I will be surprised if that happens. Pre-1997 Twickenham was a pretty safe Tory seat , and following Vince Cable's interregnum we are probably heading back to normal service being resumed.
    We'll get a good indication in 2018 whether you or I is likely to be proved right.
    My view is:
    1. The LibDems dominate the council, and remained strong there even in 2014 when they were wiped out in other places.
    2. It was one of the heaviest Remain voting constituencies in the UK.
    3. Vince had the second highest swing against him of any incumbent LibDem MP
    4. The Tories will have just greenlighted Heathrow expansion.
    5. The LibDems will be polling 12% in 2020 rather than 8%.
    I think that points to a LibDem gain.
    The Conservative MP will have the first time incumbent uplift at the next GE.
    No matter how Tania votes, she'll be tarred by her government's Heathrow decision. I reckon that'll outweigh any first term incumbency bonus.
    She seems to be a perfectly lovely lady, but also wetter than a fish's wet bits.

    I'm not sure about Twickenham. The LD base looks much higher than it probably is due to a personal vote for Cable, who won't be in the running next time.
    Except that Dr Vince Cable had the second highest swing against him of any LibDem incumbent. And Twickenham was one of only three constituencies (Eastleigh and Eastbourne were the others) where there was a more than 15% difference between local election results and the General.
    Nevertheless he would have still had a substantial personal vote.

    I don't think we can read too much into local election results - Eastleigh is a LD fiefdom.
  • rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Allison Pearson in the DT nails the grammar school debate, as seen by middle England rather than the usual commentariat.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/family/how-dare-the-privileged-elite-tell-us-that-grammar-schools-are-b/

    "Truly, there is a parallel moral universe in Britain where a person can argue passionately that grammar schools are socially divisive while sending their own sproglets to Westminster, that cradle of so many of our enlightened opinion-formers. It is scarcely credible at the start of the 21st century that the number of national newspaper columnists who went to Westminster, Eton or other private schools outnumber those of us who went to a comprehensive. How is it possible that the kind of school that serves 93 per cent of the population should be so pitifully under-represented among the ranks of those who pontificate on state education about which, to be perfectly fair, they know absolutely bugger all?

    "Read my lips: it’s the grammar schools, stupid.

    They live in a fantasy world where the choice is between selective schools and comprehensive schools, whereas in the real world the choice is between selection by ability to buy a property in the catchment area of a successful school and selection by ability to pay for private education.
    Moving to the catchment areas of successful schools -- these will be comprehensive schools, no?
    All comps are equal, but some are more equal than others. That said, one good thing about going to a comp as I did is that the wasters have no comeback on those of us who bothered to work at school. We all had the same education (supposedly) so if they are unemployable that's their problem.
    The problem with comprehensives is that the wasters are in big enough numbers to influence the school culture and ruin it for everyone.

    That said the 11 plus is too blunt. A promotion and reiegation system in subsequent years is needed.

    Another side to this is that it is in the tory party interest to bring back grammar schools as just as broadly speaking home owners are tories vs renters who tend to vote labour....

    So grammar school pupils, schooled in a culture of excellence and striving to succeed tend to be tories so the outputs of Marxist Treason Factories Comprehensives are liable to vote Labour.
    Exactly: the grammar school system of the 1950 to 1975 period didn't work. But that doesn't mean there aren't things we can take from it.
    Agree that promotion should be very much part of any grammar school system. Relegation however, unless on account of disruptive, unruly behaviour, sounds absolutely awful and should be avoided.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930



    Nevertheless he would have still had a substantial personal vote.

    I don't think we can read too much into local election results - Eastleigh is a LD fiefdom.

    I disagree with you on very few things, Mr Casino, but I think you're wrong here.

    If Dr Cable had such a significant personal vote, why did he do so much worse than any of the other LibDem incumbents in SW London?

    If Dr Cable had such a significant personal vote, why did he underperform his party's local election results so much?

    If we assume that every local election votes translates into 0.8 general election votes (proportionally), you get a pretty good approximation of LibDem support.

    Dr Cable got 0.58. Let us see what 2018 local election results look like. But if the LibDems gain votes in the Twickenham wards of Richmond council, and we assume something like 0.75 for the constituency, then it's very hard to see anything other than a LibDem gain in 2020. (Assuming the government goes ahead with Heathrow expansion.)

  • Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr

    If you're ever accused of a crime, you'll be glad you have rights protected by the courts, like the right to a lawyer. Which AFAIK you'll still have, because Britain isn't leaving the ECHR???
  • Has Mike gone on holiday again, already?

    (Joke)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,930

    Agree that promotion should be very much part of any grammar school system. Relegation however, unless on account of disruptive, unruly behaviour, sounds absolutely awful and should be avoided.

    But that will create awfully unbalanced schools: 100 in year seven... 120 in year eight... etc...

  • rcs1000 said:


    Exactly: the grammar school system of the 1950 to 1975 period didn't work. But that doesn't mean there aren't things we can take from it.

    grammar schools would be just fine if there was a proper commitment to making excellent schools (technical, specialist or whatever) for the not-so academic kids. You wouldn't need any selection, because everyone would self segregate into a suitable school. No parent (or few at any rate) really wants their kids suffering an unsuitable education. But there's no evidence the govt has any kind of such plans. they only seem to care about grammar schools.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,423
    MikeK said:

    The knives are truly out for Cameron now. Surely the Libyan fiasco will only be the start of major revelations about our beloved Cammo.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37356873

    It's also The Times headline. :)

    History is written by the successors. Twas always thus. When you are deposed rather than handing over, the new regime will blacken you to make themselves look better.

    Nero was quite possibly was a good emperor and no more violent than most, but he was the last of his dynasty.

  • Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr

    If you're ever accused of a crime, you'll be glad you have rights protected by the courts, like the right to a lawyer. Which AFAIK you'll still have, because Britain isn't leaving the ECHR???
    It isnt - yet, but it is leaving the ECJ and repealing the human rights act - which means the ECHR will be toothless - as it is in Russia and Belarus, both of which are signed up to the ECHR.
  • FF43 said:

    MikeK said:

    The knives are truly out for Cameron now. Surely the Libyan fiasco will only be the start of major revelations about our beloved Cammo.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37356873

    It's also The Times headline. :)

    History is written by the successors. Twas always thus. When you are deposed rather than handing over, the new regime will blacken you to make themselves look better.

    Nero was quite possibly was a good emperor and no more violent than most, but he was the last of his dynasty.
    Thing is blair's legacy is 10x as disastrous but this kind of thing doesn't seem to happen to him (momentum notwithstanding)?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112


    Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr

    If you're ever accused of a crime, you'll be glad you have rights protected by the courts, like the right to a lawyer. Which AFAIK you'll still have, because Britain isn't leaving the ECHR???
    It isnt - yet, but it is leaving the ECJ and repealing the human rights act - which means the ECHR will be toothless - as it is in Russia and Belarus, both of which are signed up to the ECHR.
    uh-oh.

    Yes and no (yo @Casino_Royale)

    We are not leaving the ECHR. This means that whatever new bill of rights we come up with will incorporate its terms. Hence in UK law, generally, ECHR terms will apply which the courts will be subservient to, and unable to overturn, as with any UK law.

    However, the ECtHR only has advisory capacity over UK courts. Hence on an individual basis, the UK Supreme Court has the right to ignore its judgements.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    oh and as for Dave and Libya. There was definitely a case of Iraq-itis.

    But much of the wording I've seen of the report suffers from 20:20 hindsight-itis. "Failure to work out which of Ghadaffi's rhetoric was genuine..." doesn't seem wholly fair.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TOPPING said:


    Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr

    If you're ever accused of a crime, you'll be glad you have rights protected by the courts, like the right to a lawyer. Which AFAIK you'll still have, because Britain isn't leaving the ECHR???
    It isnt - yet, but it is leaving the ECJ and repealing the human rights act - which means the ECHR will be toothless - as it is in Russia and Belarus, both of which are signed up to the ECHR.
    uh-oh.

    Yes and no (yo @Casino_Royale)

    We are not leaving the ECHR. This means that whatever new bill of rights we come up with will incorporate its terms. Hence in UK law, generally, ECHR terms will apply which the courts will be subservient to, and unable to overturn, as with any UK law.

    However, the ECtHR only has advisory capacity over UK courts. Hence on an individual basis, the UK Supreme Court has the right to ignore its judgements.
    That's a big assumption - IIRC it wasn't the case until Blair made it so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Charles said:

    TOPPING said:


    Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr

    If you're ever accused of a crime, you'll be glad you have rights protected by the courts, like the right to a lawyer. Which AFAIK you'll still have, because Britain isn't leaving the ECHR???
    It isnt - yet, but it is leaving the ECJ and repealing the human rights act - which means the ECHR will be toothless - as it is in Russia and Belarus, both of which are signed up to the ECHR.
    uh-oh.

    Yes and no (yo @Casino_Royale)

    We are not leaving the ECHR. This means that whatever new bill of rights we come up with will incorporate its terms. Hence in UK law, generally, ECHR terms will apply which the courts will be subservient to, and unable to overturn, as with any UK law.

    However, the ECtHR only has advisory capacity over UK courts. Hence on an individual basis, the UK Supreme Court has the right to ignore its judgements.
    That's a big assumption - IIRC it wasn't the case until Blair made it so.
    Which bit?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,423
    edited September 2016


    Reasons to be glad of Brexit #94.

    ECHR government has just ordered us to pay someone associated with the 21/7/2005 failed terrorist attack £13k for not giving him a fair trial

    http://dailym.ai/2clWOtr

    I suspect the court wanted to make a point without overturning previous convictions or rewarding terrorists directly. The police failed to follow due process when a witness incriminated himself and became a suspect. In the view of the court this jeopardised a fair trial but he was only awarded costs for bringing the case to the ECHR.
This discussion has been closed.