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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widel
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The polls did far better at the EU referendum than is widely perceived
Just got back from holiday in the south of France and am focusing on the political session at a big betting conference that I am taking part in on Friday . Inevitably we will be looking back at what happened on June 23rd – the biggest political betting election ever.
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Highlighted by the author of this article, no less! ;-)
Good to see you back, Mike.
I'm struggling to believe this can really account for the inaccuracy of final polls; surely this wouldn't bias one particular way, but that is what is seen in the EU ref polls?
Cameron has also redrawn the guest list for his 50th birthday party next month, removing any former close friends who backed Leave and especially anyone who backed the Gove leadership bid. Steve Hilton may also not even get a mention in his memoirs as a punishment for his backing Brexit.
Finally, he is angry at the sacking of Osborne and 'he thinks the grammar schools decision is a complete disaster. He saw grammars as Eton writ small, and that stopping them helped ordinary people. Now, she is doing the opposite.’ His concerns over the direction May was taking clearly influenced his decision to stand down as an MP too.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3786217/He-s-angry-vengeful-broken-loss-power-stop-New-York-Dave-Samantha.html#ixzz4KABtt9ZD
poawas..gooners losing in 1 minute
"But, but, but Herself always gives me lists of things to do around the house and always has. Not only that when she come home she is quite capable of walking round on an inspection tour to make sure I have done all that I was instructed and that I have done it thoroughly. I might also say that aside from a couple of shortish periods when I have been seriously unwell, Herself has not picked up an iron or cleaned a floor in thirty-odd years (nor, I might say, has she cooked a Sunday lunch).
So, Mrs. Free, I reject your sexist stereotyping"
Well, I wish I were married to you!
However valid your anecdote all surveys show that women, even working women still have the bulk of the responsibility for household matters.
I rarely iron but that is because I largely avoid buying clothes which need ironing. My sons iron their own shirts.
But it's not just the doing which is the issue. It's thinking about what needs doing, the planning and thinking ahead, remembering that if something has run out or is about to, it needs replacing, ensuring that not only do clothes get put in the washing machine, they get taken out and not hours later when they smell like dog blankets, etc etc. Running a house takes planning and planning takes thinking. It doesn't happen by magic.
Leave took the lead around 21 days out
If you've benefitted from an Etonian education, it seems wrong to deny it to people who, if not poor, are still much further down the food chain than you are.
Also, having to tell others to do something is tiresome. It would be nice if men realized that something needed doing and did it without being asked/told/ordered to do it.
Bit disappointed the BC didn't attempt to create a Stamford Hill and Golders Green seat specially for him, but top trolling.
In other news, my parents' village has moved back to the revived Littleborough and Saddleworth constituency, but the BC has it as notionally Labour? Never held by Lab in the past, was a LD/Tory marginal, stable affluent population, very little social housing. Come on the LD surge!
Hilton also pissed off a lot of a Tories pretty much taking the credit for all the good thing the Tories did between 2005 and 2012.
Mr Hilton once wasted government time trying to spend money on cloud busting technology to improve the UK's weather.
Joking aside, I'd lived a long time as a bachelor before marrying, so I'd already got into the habit of doing cooking/housework.
What caught the pollsters out this time was DNVs actually voting in quite large numbers. The assumptions, based on GE turnout distorted by safe seats where the can't be arsed stay at home were inaccurate as a result. There are lessons to be learned here (the most obvious for the establishment being referenda are seriously dangerous) but they won't be learned by saying if you look at the results with a bit of a squint they did OK.
Well said on this Mike.
The referendum was, in fact, one of the (many) cases in which polling was a far better guide than Vague Impressionistic Bollocks. The easiest way to call the referendum right was to see that the polls had it on a knife-edge whereas Betfair, er, didn't. By contrast the way to get it wrong was to focus on unquantifiable stuff and to form the belief that Remain would win just because.
Public Policy Polling
Our sample was 33% reporters and the media, 33% NYC homeless, 33% Chicago gangbangers, and 1% lizard people https://t.co/LCdZJahNct
As Mr. F upthread confirms, most husbands do as they are told. We find it easier and more harmonious that way. Also we can't get shouted at for forgetting something if we haven't been told to do it or buy it. "Was that on the list, darling?"
If it turns out premature polls are better predictors than final ones that could have huge implications for predicting and thus betting.
I think, based on local election results, that is a positive for the Lib Dems and certainly better than adding Sandridge would have been.
British polls continue to be unreliable and unstable, because those conducting the polls have little faith in their own results, and have to constantly shift the numbers here and there until they conform to their own personal view.
The problem was that people were insistent on the accuracy of telephone polls, whereas internet polls consistently do better at identifying 'taboo' opinion.
It's interesting that Corbyn is widely commentated upon as an absolute imbecile, which makes me wonder about the future scope for Shy Labour.
The man who lectured the country on "Brits don't quit" has now quit both his jobs and is perhaps going to quit his country as well.
Or as self-entitled.
Explains the UKIP shop in glamorous Halton then...
One thing I would like to see is the difference in turnout for each individual area between the general election and the referendum.
If the polling companies thought it was wise to include prior polls in their calculations they would do so. They don't provide poll results just to mix in the average, and then we'll see.
What you may be demonstrating is that the polling companies had all the evidence to predict the result but didn't.
How did everyone misinterpret the polls if your assertion is right?
We know that the final polls had a huge margin for error. Why should the polls ten days out not have that same margin of error?
Five substantially wrong guesses suggest a wrong view rather than a normal anomaly within statistical error.
Can't say my heart goes out to him.
Sahil Oberoi: No need to panic Arsenal fans, you still have 5 matches left to ensure that you get knocked out in the last 16.
- And one fifth (20%) of all votes were postal votes
- And the average final poll was for a 3.36% Remain lead (51.68:48.32)
- And the actual result was a 3.78% Leave win (51.89:48.11)
Then the error caused by the postal voting should account for slightly under a quarter of the total error.
But there was always a sense of him playing at 'Lord Bountiful'.
Cameron is an interesting psychological character.
Mrs TMrs May cleaning out more of Cameron / Osborne appointments...The head of the BBC Trust, Rona Fairhead, has resigned after Theresa May asked her to re-apply for her own £110,000-a-year post.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3787874/BBC-chairman-Rona-Fairhead-steps-down.html
"Lot's of activity, but no actual achievement"
Hold on. WE were told the EU had to give us the single market because we were so important !
The idiots.
{I would add a smiley but I remember your thoughts on them}
Perhaps a future playwright will write a great tragedy on Cameron's downfall.
No. Just not making the same mistake Cameron did.
It will be fair game since yougov is doing polls in america, with the risk of screwing it up like in Britain.
My grammar in Battersea was mainly attended by boys from the council estates of that borough as well as Wandsworth, Clapham and Stretham. There were a few lads whose parents owned their own homes, but they were the minority and we certainly didn't have any pukka middle-class children who parents were in the professions.
So I am afraid your idea that they were an escalator for the middle classes was, at least in my day, total bollocks.
P.S. I might just add for the umpteenth time on here that I don't want to see them back (unless part of a much wider education reform - see e.g. MaxPB's ideas on here a few days ago). The reason I don't want them brought back has nothing to do with the factors you mention, but because I think to do so would be to attack the wrong problem.
While the BBC has tried to portray the loss of the baking show as a purely financial matter, a source at the corporation said that there had been a “total breakdown of trust” between the broadcaster and the production company, which made it “impossible” to agree a deal.
It is understood that Love threatened to sue the corporation over Hair, a BBC Three programme released in early 2014 that was billed by the broadcaster as “a competition to find Britain’s best amateur hair stylist”, and was widely reported as being akin to a “Bake Off for hairdressing”. The corporation had agreed to a financial settlement with the production company, to prevent the case going to court.
Barely a year later, the corporation was accused of attempting a similar move over the BBC One show, The Big Painting Challenge, presented by Richard Bacon and Una Stubbs. The broadcaster billed the programme as a “nationwide search for Britain’s best amateur artist”, which Love again complained bore all the hallmarks of its own baking show.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/sue-perkins-and-mel-giedroyc-to-step-down-as-great-british-bake/
Didn't SeanT once accuse them of nicking an idea he pitched to them?
All presenters quit, leaving C4 with a dead duck and an immediate halving of viewing figures
BBC reboot something with original presenting team
Outside chance - backlash/negative PR/all presenters quitting leads to C4 deal falling apart
Tbh, if C4 were stupid enough to pay £25m without ensuring the presenters were signed up, then hell mend them.
It's probably asking too much of polls for them to accurately track small movements from week to week. Overall, throughout the last month, they gave the impression that the referendum was extremely close, which it was.
BBC not to secure the rights way in advance, with an attitude of their unwritten rule of programmes aren't allowed to leave the BBC. And CH4 not to secure that their deal was on the basis of getting the presenters.
As for a reboot on BBC, given Love Productions have already sued them once and got a settlement, I am sure they will do it again.
I, of course, only moved from London to New York because my American wife wanted to go back.
Wouldnt touch them with a bargepole.
There needs to be a type of schooling that recognises and nurtures academic excellence outside of the fee paying sector. Grammar schools are part of the answer.